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September 2021 Report Recovery Research Dashboard

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Page 1: Recovery Research Dashboard

September 2021 Report

Recovery Research Dashboard

Page 2: Recovery Research Dashboard

About the Recovery Research Dashboard§ The Recovery Research Dashboard is a summary compilation of weekly and monthly

statistics from a variety of Visit California and third-party data sets:

Visit California Third-PartyAirDNA BloombergCirium Diio Mi Brand USA / Engine / OrcDestination Analysts Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)ForwardKeys California Department of Public Health (CDPH)SMARInsights Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC)STR Department of Homeland SecurityTravelClick Department of LaborTourism Economics Global Business Travel Association (GBTA)

New York Times

§ The data are updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current status of recovery for the travel industry across these key indicators:ü Public Healthü Consumer Sentimentü Air and Lodging Bookingü Economicü International

Page 3: Recovery Research Dashboard

Table of Contents• Executive Summary• Key Indicator Matrix

• International Consumer Sentiment

• Public Health Indicators

• Consumer Indicators

• Lodging & Air Indicators

• Economic Indicators

• International Indicators

• Appendix (HomeShare Measures)

Page 4: Recovery Research Dashboard

Executive SummaryPublic Health Indicators Lodging/Airline Indicators§ COVID-19 case rates in California continued to decline in the

month of September. For the week ending Sept. 26, weekly new cases were down 40% compared to the week prior.

§ The death rate from COVID-19 in the state remains low. Deaths were down 54% last week from the prior week, at 183.

§ First dose vaccinations have reached 71% of the state’s population. This compares to 64% for the U.S. overall.

§ Occupancy in the state for week ending Sept. 25 was at 66%, down 18% from the same week in 2019. Room demand was down 15%, driven by lower demand in the Gateway regions (-20%)

§ California ADR declined slightly in September, down 6% for week ending Sept. 25 (relative to 2019).

§ For the most recent week, TSA recorded 12.2 million passengers, down 25% from 2019.

Consumer Indicators Economic Indicators§ Consumer sentiment towards the virus and travel continues to

trend positive as case rates decline.§ A greater number of Californians again believe the

coronavirus situation will “get better” in the next month (41%) compared to those who think “get worse” (32%).

§ 78% of California travelers are in the “ready to travel” mindset. Consumers are also increasingly more “excited” to travel and learn about new destinations.

§ Resident sentiment towards welcoming visitors to their destination (49%) remained below levels reached in the early part of summer when case rates were low.

§ Visitor spending in California for July reported by Tourism Economics grew to $12.2 billion, down 13% from 2019.

§ Florida continues to outpace California in terms of recovery with visitor spending estimated to be surpassing 2019 levels (+14%).

§ The Leisure and Hospitality sector continued to hire in August, but California’s unemployment rate has remained flat through the summer months at 7.5% (vs. 5.2% for the U.S.)

Current Status: Recovery

Page 5: Recovery Research Dashboard

Executive Summary

International Indicators

§ COVID-19 case numbers are declining in a vast majority of the markets as of the end of September. Increases, however, were reported in the U.K., Canada, Mexico and South Korea.

§ Nine out of 14 markets now have over 70% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose.

§ Airlift and non-resident arrivals from international markets into the U.S. remain depressed, but the recently announced re-opening of the US border should have a positive impact in the coming months.

§ International forecast and consumer sentiment on travel to California will be updated in next month’s report.

Page 6: Recovery Research Dashboard

Crisis Stage: ResponseRecovery –Hyper-Local

Recovery –In-State

Recovery –Regional

Recovery –National

Recovery –International

Recovery – Post-Containment

Characteristics: Travel is counter-indicated due to infection rate and local shelter in place restrictions

California shelter in place restrictions have lifted allowing for support of local businesses

Successful containment post-shelter in place allows for greater in-state travel

Continued successful containment across Western region allows for regional travel

Significant proportions of U.S. have successful containment and new screening protocols allow domestic travel

Significant containment is achieved across international markets and new screening protocols allow int’l travel

New normal is achieved after widespread availability of a vaccine or successful treatment protocols

Public Health Indicators• Case counts• Tier status

Consumer Indicators• Travel Readiness

Indicator• Mindset toward

activities• Mindset toward travel

Lodging & Air Indicators• Lodging metrics• Air passenger data• Future booking data

Economic Indicators• Travel Spending• Unemployment• Industry Employment

Key Indicator Matrix

Page 7: Recovery Research Dashboard

Key Monthly Highlights(September)

Page 8: Recovery Research Dashboard

Travel consumers support mask and vaccine mandates by a wide margin

Source: Destination AnalystsData from: Week ending 9/19/21

67.8%

59.7%66.5%

61.9%66.1%

17.9%

25.9%

17.9%24.8%

17.0%

Indoor Mask Mandate inCities

Indoor Vaccine Mandate inHome Community

Commercial AirlinePassenger Vaccine Mandate

EmployerVaccine Mandate

NFL Game Attendee VaccineMandate

Support for Indoor Mask and Vaccine Mandates

Support (Top 2 Box) Oppose (Bottom 2 Box)

Page 9: Recovery Research Dashboard

NFL game attendees are even MORE likely to support mandates

Source: Destination Analysts

(79.0%) (60.7%)

Data from: Week ending 9/19/21

Page 10: Recovery Research Dashboard

Safety protocols increase interest in visiting a destination

29.0%

39.4%

46.7%

46.9%

42.2%

24.3%

21.5%

20.9%

There are no mask mandates or vaccine requirements

Masks are required outdoors at large outdoor events

Masks are required indoors throughout the destination

Availability of dining and entertainment options thatrequire proof of vaccination from employees and

patrons

Safety Protocols Impact on Destination Interest

Would make me more interested Would have no impact Would make me less interested

Source: SMARInsights, U.S. Tracking StudyQ: How would each of the following impact your interest in visiting a destination?Data from: Weeks ending 8/29/21 – 9/19/21

”more” minus “less”

+26

+25

+15

-13

Page 11: Recovery Research Dashboard

Even those travelers not likely to visit CA want safety protocols

26.5%

35.5%

34.9%

51.1%

43.1%

56.1%

43.2%

56.7%

43.7%

38.5%

28.0%

14.6%

24.5%

13.6%

23.6%

13.7%

There are no mask mandates or vaccine requirements

Masks are required outdoors at large outdoor events

Masks are required indoors throughout the destination

Availability of dining and entertainment options that requireproof of vaccination from employees and patrons

Safety Protocols Impact on Destination Interest (by Likelihood to Visit CA in the Next 12 Months)

Would make me more interested Would have no impact Would make me less interested

Source: SMARInsights, U.S. Tracking Study

Availability of dining and entertainment options that require proof of vaccination

from employees and patrons

Likely to Visit

Not Likely

Masks are required indoors throughout the destination

Likely to Visit

Not Likely

Masks are required outdoors at large outdoor events

Likely to Visit

Not Likely

There are no mask mandates or vaccine requirements

Likely to Visit

Not Likely

”more” minus “less”

+43

+20

+42

+19

+36

+7

-3

-17

Q: How would each of the following impact your interest in visiting a destination?Data from: Weeks ending 8/29/21 – 9/19/21

Page 12: Recovery Research Dashboard

Public Health Indicators• U.S. and California COVID-19 Cases and Deaths• California County Tiers and Metrics for Reopening

Page 13: Recovery Research Dashboard

Weekly COVID-19 Case Data:Summary

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Page 14: Recovery Research Dashboard

California COVID-19 Cases & Deaths• The charts below show the daily new confirmed cases and deaths in California.

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Page 15: Recovery Research Dashboard

National “Hotspots” for COVID-19 Cases

Source: New York Times, as of 9/28/21

Page 16: Recovery Research Dashboard

National Hospitalizations for COVID-19

Source: New York Times, as of 9/28/21

Page 17: Recovery Research Dashboard

Share of Population That Has Received 1+ Vaccine Dose

Source: New York Times/CDC, as of 9/28/21

Page 18: Recovery Research Dashboard

Consumer Indicators• Expectations for the Coronavirus Situation• Mindset for Travel• Consumer Readiness for Travel• Resident Sentiment• Destination Readiness

Page 19: Recovery Research Dashboard

California & U.S. Expectations for Coronavirus Outbreak• Question: In the next month, how (if at all) do you expect the severity of the coronavirus situation in the United States to change?

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Page 20: Recovery Research Dashboard

California & U.S. Mindset Toward Travel• The “Ready to Travel” mindset segment includes consumers already traveling or otherwise ready to travel with or without reservation.

The “Not Ready to Travel” segment includes those consumers who either need a little or a lot more time to be ready to travel.�

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Page 21: Recovery Research Dashboard

California & U.S. Consumer Readiness to Travel• The charts below show consumer excitement to travel and learn about new destinations compared to an average ”unsafe” ratings of a

list of 20+ travel activities tracked every week. Increasing “excitement” and a declining ”unsafe” rating indicate travel recovery.

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Page 22: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Resident Sentiment Metrics• The chart below shows California resident sentiment towards welcoming tourists to their community and supporting travel in the state.����

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Page 23: Recovery Research Dashboard

Destination Readiness• The chart below shows consumer perception of “Destination Readiness” for California and Florida (shown on a rolling 4-week basis).

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Page 24: Recovery Research Dashboard

Lodging & Air Indicators• U.S. and California Occupancy, Average Daily Rate

(ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar)• California Lodging Demand• California Region Metrics• U.S. TSA Passenger Throughput• Airlift into California• Future Air and Lodging Bookings

Page 25: Recovery Research Dashboard

U.S. & California Weekly Lodging Metrics• The charts include weekly metrics for: Occupancy, Average Daily Rate (ADR), and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR).• Note that hotels closed for at least a calendar month due to the COVID-19 pandemic are marked as “closed” in STR’s census

database for that month. Hotels closed for a partial month are still included in supply and the occupancy calculation.����

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Page 26: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Weekly Lodging Metrics(with year-over-year comparison)

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Page 27: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Weekly Room Demand (with year-over-year comparison)

• Demand can be used as an alternative metric for occupancy.

• Year-over-year percent change for Gateways and Other California Regions is calculated as an average across the regions.

*Gateway Regions segment includes Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Diego County, and San Francisco Bay Area. Other California Regions segment includes Central Coast, Central Valley, Deserts, Gold Country, High Sierra, Inland Empire, North Coast, and Shasta Cascade regions.

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Page 28: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Weekly Lodging Metrics: Gateway Regions

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Page 29: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Weekly Lodging Metrics: Other California Regions

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Page 30: Recovery Research Dashboard

U.S. Air Passenger Throughput (TSA Checkpoints)• The chart shows weekly passengers screened at U.S. TSA checkpoints.• Starting with March dates, year-over-year comparison is relative to 2019 data.

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Page 31: Recovery Research Dashboard

Airlift into California• The charts below show monthly domestic and international non-stop seats to California and year-over-year comparison.• Starting with March 21, year-over-year comparison is relative to 2019 data.

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Page 32: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Future Bookings(Monthly Reporting)

• Future room night bookings in California for the next

eight months are shown on the left with percent

change relative to 2019 bookings as of the report

date.

• Air bookings to California for the next six months are

shown on the left with percent change relative to

2019 bookings as of the report date.

Note: TravelClick room booking data is reported weekly. ForwardKeys air booking data is reported on a weekly basis, and does not include bookings from Southwest Airlines.

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Page 33: Recovery Research Dashboard

State of Domestic Business Travel

Page 34: Recovery Research Dashboard

State of International Business Travel

Page 35: Recovery Research Dashboard

Economic Indicators• Monthly Travel Spending• State and Local Taxes Lost• Unemployment Rate• Leisure & Hospitality Employment Figures

Page 36: Recovery Research Dashboard

Monthly Travel Spending• The chart shows the impact of coronavirus on monthly travel spending in US, California, Florida, Texas and New York compared to

travel spending for the same month in 2019 (pre-pandemic).

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Page 37: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Monthly Travel Spending• The chart shows monthly travel spending in California since the start of the pandemic and the comparison to travel spending for the

same month in 2019.

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Page 38: Recovery Research Dashboard

Cumulative State and Local Tax Losses since January 2020 for California and the U.S.

• The two charts show the impact of coronavirus on tax revenue at the local and state level for California and the U.S.

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Page 39: Recovery Research Dashboard

California and U.S. Monthly Unemployment Rate• The chart shows the monthly unemployment rate for California and the U.S..

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Page 40: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Leisure & Hospitality Employment• The chart shows California monthly job losses for Leisure & Hospitality compared to other NAICS industry segments.• California’s Leisure & Hospitality industry has been significantly impacted by COVID-related job losses when compared to the broader

non-farm economy.

California Leisure & Hospitality Employment

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Page 41: Recovery Research Dashboard

International Indicators• Recovery Forecast (Spending)• Cases and Vaccination Rates• Consumer Sentiment• International Airlift into California• Arrivals at POEs

Page 42: Recovery Research Dashboard

§ The five-year California Travel-Related Spend and Visitation Forecast from Tourism Economics provides the foundation for the expectations for recovery across different international markets.

§ The forecast takes into account a variety of macro-economic factors which are expected to influence the varying rates of recovery.

§ However, there is a need to monitor public health indicators and consumer sentiment, as both could further slow or speed the expected rate of recovery.

§ Note: public health indicators are shown based on data from the World Health Organization (WHO), but cross-country comparisons are difficult due to differences in how public health data is collected and reported.

Monitoring International Recovery

Page 43: Recovery Research Dashboard

International Spend Forecast and Rate of Recovery

Heat map color-coding is applied across all countries and all years to indicate expectations for faster vs. slower recovery rate.

Heat map color-coding is applied vertically for each year to show highest value/lower value share of spend each year.

Source: Tourism Economics – June 2021 Forecast

• The table below shows the 5-year international visitor spend forecast for California broken out by international market and indexed to 2019 spending levels. Most markets will not recover to 2019 spending until 2024 or later.

• The full forecast report can be found at https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/research/travel-forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Total $28,137 $5,293 $ 8,680 $16,555 $22,435 $26,872 $29,908 31 59 80 96 106

Mexico $ 4,256 $1,028 $ 2,342 $ 3,149 $ 3,825 $ 4,326 $ 4,560 55 74 90 102 107

Land $ 3,389 $ 684 $ 1,738 $ 2,355 $ 2,870 $ 3,252 $ 3,433 51 69 85 96 101

Air $ 866 $ 344 $ 604 $ 793 $ 956 $ 1,074 $ 1,127 70 92 110 124 130

China $ 4,015 $ 431 $ 783 $ 1,810 $ 2,989 $ 4,019 $ 4,804 20 45 74 100 120

Canada $ 3,163 $ 694 $ 998 $ 2,528 $ 3,080 $ 3,407 $ 3,636 32 80 97 108 115

United Kingdom $ 1,423 $ 216 $ 429 $ 870 $ 1,259 $ 1,412 $ 1,488 30 61 88 99 105

Japan $ 1,369 $ 281 $ 409 $ 838 $ 1,116 $ 1,248 $ 1,343 30 61 82 91 98

Australia $ 1,288 $ 211 $ 371 $ 774 $ 1,105 $ 1,290 $ 1,360 29 60 86 100 106

France $ 1,276 $ 177 $ 348 $ 738 $ 1,024 $ 1,128 $ 1,161 27 58 80 88 91

South Korea $ 1,233 $ 327 $ 439 $ 853 $ 1,137 $ 1,323 $ 1,421 36 69 92 107 115

India $ 1,167 $ 258 $ 356 $ 609 $ 814 $ 977 $ 1,150 30 52 70 84 98

Germany $ 934 $ 116 $ 188 $ 443 $ 680 $ 856 $ 895 20 47 73 92 96

Middle East $ 770 $ 226 $ 225 $ 432 $ 546 $ 598 $ 646 29 56 71 78 84

Scandinavia $ 661 $ 118 $ 199 $ 399 $ 547 $ 666 $ 743 30 60 83 101 112

Italy $ 471 $ 43 $ 86 $ 208 $ 314 $ 392 $ 451 18 44 67 83 96

Brazil $ 445 $ 79 $ 119 $ 206 $ 286 $ 348 $ 367 27 46 64 78 82

Page 44: Recovery Research Dashboard

International COVID-19 Cases and Deaths• The chart shows international new COVID cases and the number of tests conducted per case. The tests per case measure can provide insight on how

much testing is being done in the market. A relatively low test rate may indicate the likelihood of a higher case incidence vs. reported incidence.

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Page 45: Recovery Research Dashboard

International Vaccination Rates• The chart shows international vaccination rates (% of population receiving at least one dose) and the number of months to

reach a vaccination rate of 75% (based on the current rate of vaccination.)

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Page 46: Recovery Research Dashboard

CDC Risk Assessment Levels• CDC Risk Assessment Level classifications for COVID-19 assesses travel risks for American travelers. The risk assessments

provide another data point on the spread of COVID in key international markets. • Arrows indicate change since previous month’s report.

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Point difference -4.3 1.8 -5.5 -19.3 -0.7 1.5 -2.5 5.5 -2.3 8.5 3.3

% change -19.1% 4.0% -11.8% -42.5% -4.2% 11.1% -7.7% 16.4% -4.1% 45.9% 13.7%

Source: Brand USA / Engine ORC

• Likelihood to travel to the U.S. is shown for June 2021, compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark from 2019. • The table below summarizes how much likelihood is higher or lower than benchmark for each country, both in point difference and in percent

change.

Intent to Travel to USA

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2019 Avg 21-Sep

Page 48: Recovery Research Dashboard

Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels

Strength Relative to Domestic

Competition

Strength Relative to International Competition

Planned Timing of Future Visitation (mean)

Canada +10.8 +1.1 +1.6 11.2

China -15.3 +1.0 +0.5 8.9

Mexico +10.0 +10.8 +15.5 8.9

UK +1.0 -5.8 -37.2 12.9

Intent to Visit California

Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study

International Consumer Sentiment Scorecard (June 2021)

• Visit California is conducting quarterly consumer sentiment tracking in key international markets.• The scorecard summarizes results on key metrics related to intent to visit California relative to pre-pandemic conditions and

competition.

Page 49: Recovery Research Dashboard

International Airlift to California by Market• The chart shows international non-stop seats to California by market for the current month and comparison to 2019 data.• The increase in India airlift is due to new airline service from United Airlines added in 2020 and new service from Bengaluru

added in 2021.

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Page 50: Recovery Research Dashboard

Non-Resident Arrivals at CA Ports of Entries• The chart shows non-resident arrivals at California Ports of Entry by market for the current month and comparison to 2019 data.

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Page 51: Recovery Research Dashboard

Lodging IndicatorsAppendix

• HomeShare Metrics (Monthly)

Page 52: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics:

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Page 53: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics:

*Note: Benchmark is relative to 2020. 2019 data is not available.

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Page 54: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Gateway Regions

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Page 55: Recovery Research Dashboard

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Other California Regions

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