record operating performance fourth quarter results 2002 13 february 2003

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Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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0 3 Total assetsEUR bn Group capital EUR 30.1 bn Risk-weighted assetsEUR bn BIS tier 1 ratio7.48% BIS total capital ratio11.54% Return on equityEarnings per share Operating result 2002 per SBU ABN AMRO at a glance Net profit Return on equity/earnings per share Long-Term Moody’sAa3 Standard & Poor’sAA- FitchIBCAAA- Solid credit rating Strong balance sheet NB: Balance sheet items as at 31/12/2002

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

Record Operating PerformanceFourth Quarter Results 2002

13 February 2003

Page 2: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

0 2

Table of Content Chairman’s Introduction 3 Operating Performance 4 Asset Quality and Capital 13 Strategic Update 20

Note: Appendices to this document are provided in a separate book

Page 3: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

0 3

Total assets EUR 556.0 bnGroup capital EUR 30.1 bnRisk-weighted assets EUR 229.6 bnBIS tier 1 ratio 7.48%BIS total capital ratio 11.54%

Return on equity Earnings per share

Operating result 2002 per SBU

ABN AMRO at a glance

Net profit 1998 - 2002 Return on equity/earnings per share

1.828

2.57

3.097

2.363 2.412

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Long-TermMoody’s Aa3Standard & Poor’s AA-FitchIBCA AA-

Solid credit rating

Strong balance sheet

NB: Balance sheet items as at 31/12/2002

WCS13.7%

PCAM6.0%

AALH4.6%

CC8.4%

C&CC67.3%

0%5%

10%15%20%

25%30%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Page 4: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Record high operating performance in 2002

Revenues slightly down (-2.9%) Strict cost control drove expenses down (-6.9%) Record high operating result (EUR 5.5 bln up 7.8%) Provisioning up in line with the outlook (EUR 1.7 bln) Net profit excl. extraordinary result up (2.1%) Substantial improvement in efficiency ratio (70.1%) Tier 1 at 7.48% exceeding target for the year Dividend unchanged at EUR 0.90

Page 5: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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One of the best performing European Financial stocks

Share price performanceas of 1 January 02

5

8

11

14

17

20

23

Jan-

02

Jan-

02

Mar-

02

Apr-

02

May -

02

Jun-

02

Jul-02 Aug-

02

Sep-

02

Oct-

02

Nov -

02

Dec-

02

Jan-

03

Feb-

03

Mar-

03

Apr-

03

May -

03

ABN AMRO European Financials - MSCI Index AEX Index

12.7

10

15

Note:prices as at market closure 13 May 2003

Page 6: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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What is the ABN AMRO proposition?

High proportion of annuity and flow products in total revenues

Execution risk largely eliminated Prudent risk management and good asset quality Sustainable organic capital generating capabilities Genuinely client-led business model Attractive dividend yield backed by sustainable strong

operating performance

Page 7: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

Operating Performance

Page 8: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Record operating performance in 2002

Revenues FY 2002

Overall revenue lower primarily due to a lower level of commission income

Operating expenses driven largely by a substantial decline in WCS and C&CC

Operating result up reflecting the best operating result in history

Commissions 25.4%

Other 10.6%

Trading10.1%

Interest53.9%

Page 9: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Efficiency ratio falls for the fifth consecutive quarter

Revenues Q4 2002

Operating result increases substantially

Efficiency ratio has reached a new low

Net profit excluding extraordinary result strongly up

Commissions 24.8%

Other 15.3%

Trading9.5%

Interest50.4%

% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 4,489 4,323 3.8 (2.9)

Expenses 3,093 3,004 3.0 (6.9)

Operating result 1,396 1,319 5.8 7.8

Net profit 685 591 15.9 2.1

Efficiency ratio 68.9% 69.5%

Page 10: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 2,600 2,378 9.3 1.8

Expenses 1,668 1,541 8.2 (4.8)

Operating result 932 837 11.4 16.5

Efficiency ratio 64.2% 64.8%

C&CC posts another quarter of strong performance

Robust organic revenue growth fuelled by continued high mortgage origination, spread and volume gains in the Netherlands and Brazil

Expenses up in line with the high level of mortgage activity

Further improvement of the efficiency ratio

Revenues Q4 2002

Netherlands31.3%

RoW11.8%

Brazil13.3%

US43.5%

Page 11: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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With the restructuring largely behind, BU NL focuses on growth

Revenue growth achieved in the context of pricing pressure

Stable staff costs over the quarter as FTE departures occurred in December

Substantial improvement of the efficiency ratio

Restructuring (FTE reduction and branch closure) almost finalised, client satisfaction up

Revenues Q4 2002

Commissions 19.5%

Trading1.0%

Other 3.2%

Interest76.3%

% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 814 740 10.0 4.0

Expenses 634 627 1.1 (1.6)

Operating result 180 113 59.3 41.0

Efficiency ratio 77.9% 84.7%

Page 12: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Interest54.6%

Commissions 13.4%

Trading3.4%

Other 28.6%

Mortgages helped BU US to deliver strong revenue growth

Revenues driven by gains on the mortgages business

Expenses up due to year-end advertising costs and one-off items (write-off on existing leasehold improvement)

Efficiency ratio up but remains competitive

Revenues Q4 2002% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 1,132 1,044 8.4 6.3

Expenses 594 517 14.9 (3.0)

Operating result 538 527 2.1 18.0

Efficiency ratio 52.5% 49.5%

Page 13: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Other and trading

0.9

Interest89

Commissions 10.1

Volatility restrains BU Brazil

Revenues were impacted by the interest rate increases

Expenses stable despite increase in labour costs and branch openings

Efficiency ratio affected by decrease in revenues

Revenues Q4 2002% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 346 386 (10.4) (9.6)

Expenses 257 256 0.4 (7.1)

Operating result 89 130 (31.5) (14.8)

Efficiency ratio 74.3% 66.3%

Page 14: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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PCAM maintains revenue growth despite difficult market conditions

PC revenues are largely stable while expenses are substantially up. Expenses were largely driven by reclassification of direct expenses

AM delivers a substantially better performance driven by revenue growth

Revenues Q4 2002

Other 11.2%

Trading2.9%

Commissions 60.6%

Interest25.3%

% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 348 335 3.9 0.3

Expenses 280 255 9.8 (3.7)

Operating result 68 80 (15.0) 16.3

Efficiency ratio 80.5% 76.1%

Page 15: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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WCS restructuring continues to deliver

Revenues relatively stable despite a sharp fall in RWA

Expenses further down as restructuring is rolled out

Operating result increases for the third consecutive quarter

Revenues Q4 2002

Trading25.5%

Interest34.3%

Commissions 37.7%

Other 2.5%

% change

(EUR mln) Q4 02 Q3 02Q4 02/Q3 02

FY 02/FY 01

Revenues 1,270 1,287 (1.3) (14.5)

Expenses 1,051 1,081 (2.8) (14.2)

Operating result 219 206 6.3 (16.2)

Efficiency ratio 82.8% 84.0%

Page 16: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

Asset Quality and Capital

Page 17: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Annualised provisions / RWA (%)

Provisioning is in line with the outlook

Provisioning slightly up in Q4

Overall quality of the portfolio remains satisfactory

WCS corporate portfolio continues to be investment grade

Quality of the C&CC portfolio is stable

Lower level of annualised provisions/RWA than the peer group average 0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02

C&CC WCS ABN AMRO

Page 18: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Tier 1 ratio exceeds target

Tier 1 ratio increase led by fall of RWA and by high retained earnings

Tier 1 ratio gains 45 basis points despite pension (EUR 804 mln) and currency related (EUR 2.6 bln) charges in 2002

Simultaneous decline in proportion of hybrid instruments

(EUR bln) 30 09 02 31 12 0131 12 02/ 31 12 01

% change31 12 02/30 09 02

Total assetsShareholders’ equityGroup capitalRisk-weighted assets

Tier 1 ratioTotal capital ratio

604.610.8630.9

252.1

7.00%10.87%

597.411.7934.0

273.4

7.03%10.91%

(6.9)(8.5)

(11.5)(16.0)

(8.0)(0.7)(2.6)(8.9)

31 12 02

556.110.7830.1

229.6

7.48%11.54%

Page 19: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Pensions are accounted for under US GAAP

Accounting policy migrated to US GAAP on 1 January 2002. US GAAP allows the spreading of potential increases of the annual pension costs

Accrued Benefit Cost is fully accounted for in the liabilities under provisions

Annual pension costs have to increase as and when unrecognised net actuarial gains / (losses) are greater than 10% of the Projected Benefit Obligation

Any such increase would then be spread over the average remaining service term - 11 years at present

Value of Plan Assets should always be equal to or greater than Accumulate Benefit Obligation. Any shortfall in the Value of Plan Assets has to be funded by a Tier 1 haircut after capitalised prior service costs and provisions have been deducted

Page 20: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Pensions had a negative impact on Tier 1 in 2002

In 2002, pensions had a total negative impact on Tier 1 of EUR 804 mln (net of taxes)

Q1 02 provision (EUR mln) migration to US GAAP

Q4 02 provision (EUR mln) coverage of accumulated benefit obligation

Under US GAAP, value of Plan Assets should be at all time equal to or greater than accumulated benefit obligation.

Treatment of pensions is more conservative under US GAAP. Migration required this one-off provision.

Note:Q402 provision is related to the Netherland Plan Assets only

Page 21: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Due to sustainability of our income stream and high stock dividend (55 - 60%), retained earnings will continue to accrue rapidly

Coverage ratios improved in the course of 2002

We remain committed to achieving our Tier 1 target of 7.50% by end of 2003

Operating income/Provisioning: 3.2x

Net attrib. Profit/Cash Dividend: 3.8x

PBT / (tax+extra.+cash& pref. dividend+minority) 1.7x

High profit retention reflects strong coverage ratios

Note: Ratios calculated on the basis of a 60% stock dividend

Page 22: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

Strategic Update

Page 23: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Our strategy remains unchanged Focus on Retail and Asset Gathering businesses - to

deliver above average returns through cycles WCS continues to play a supportive role with respect to

the Retail and Asset Gathering focus as a principal provider of product capabilities and intellectual capital

With the cost restructuring plan largely behind us, the focus has shifted to revenue and capital generation

Page 24: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Focus shifts to revenue growth Increase capital allocation to Retail and Asset Gathering

activities– Increase BU NL penetration of the high-value added client and product

segments

– Increase market share of BU US in the retail mass affluent segment

– Expand BU Brazil client base

– Push product capabilities through distribution networks in Italy

Support new business initiatives in WCS– In particular in Financial Markets and Working Capital

Selective and MFV-based acquisitions to supplement the existing operations

Page 25: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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A re-branding has been initiated to reinforce common identity

Re-branding process has been initiated to ensure the projection of the same corporate values and business principles to our clients and to underline the synergies between the SBU’s

Page 26: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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Re-branding

Page 27: Record Operating Performance Fourth Quarter Results 2002 13 February 2003

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No outlook for 2003

Despite the momentum in our businesses, we believe that given the geo-political uncertainties at this point and the potential impact of these uncertainties on the global economy, a net profit outlook based on economic assumptions only is not very realistic. We, therefore, refrain from giving an outlook for the year at this point in time.