record meat trade forecast for 2003 - cornell university · 2002/10/1 · hong kong, korea,...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Circular Series DL&P 2-02 October 2002

Beef Exports Forecast to Grow, With Brazil Emerging as a Top Competitor

Others

Australia

US

EU

Brazil

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1997 2000 2003(f)

Million tons (CWE)

Pork Exports Continue to Grow, As Brazil and Canada Expand Rapidly

Others

EU

US

Canada

Brazil

0

1

2

3

4

1997 2000 2003(f)

Million tons (CWE)

Broiler Meat Exports Recover After Russia Lifts Trade Restrictions

Others

EU

US

Brazil

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1997 2000 2003(f)

Million tons (RTC)

Record Meat Trade Forecast for 2003 Total meat (beef, pork, broiler and turkey) trade, as measured by exports, is forecast to reach a record of 16.7 million tons in 2003. With few exceptions, leading exporters are expected to maintain their share of the world market, where import demand is concentrated in a handful of highly competitive markets. Brazil’s emergence as a significant exporter of beef, pork and poultry can be largely explained by its success in the Russian market. Rising incomes in Russia have spurred an increase in meat consumption during the first half of 2002. With the recent agreement on veterinary certification for U.S. poultry exports to Russia, the outlook for U.S. broiler exports appears promising. U.S. meat exports (beef, pork, broiler and turkey) are forecast to increase 7.7 percent to a record of 4.6 million tons in 2003. Japan, the largest market for U.S. beef and pork, is expected to continue its gradual recovery from the 2001 BSE crisis. While Japanese consumers regain confidence, however, the imposition of safeguard tariffs on beef could constrain some of the prospects for growth in beef imports. Mexican demand for U.S. meat is expected to grow as tariffs under NAFTA are scheduled for elimination in 2003. Global competition in all three commodities will likely intensify as the EU and the recently approved accession countries streamline production to accommodate tightening environmental standards. At the same time, Australia’s increased beef production and limited opportunities for increased exports to the U.S. will place downward pressure on beef prices in other major export markets.

For Information Contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Division AG Box 1044, South Agriculture Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-1044

Howard Wetzel, Director

TEL: (202) 720-8031 FAX: (202) 720-0617 Analysis Marketing Deputy Director for Analysis

Lee Schatz ..........................................(202) 720-1350 Head, Livestock Group

Todd Drennan ....................................(202) 720-1319 Head, Dairy and Poultry Group

Ralph Dutrow......................................(202) 720-7400 Beef

Roseanne Freese..................................(202) 720-7285 Michael Francom………………….. (202) 720-1252

Beef Cattle

Roseanne Freese..................................(202) 720-7285 Michael Francom………………….. (202) 720-1252

Pork and Swine

Tim Rocke...........................................(202) 720-7715 David Leishman ..................................(202) 720-4185

Lamb, Mutton, and Goat Tallow, Lard, Meat and Bone Meal

Willie Brooks.......................................(202) 720-3690 Hides, Skins, and Leather Willie Brooks........................................(202) 720-3690 Poultry Products

Yoonhee Macke..................................(202) 720-8252 Corey Pickelsimer ...............................(202) 720-7066

Dairy Products

Arthur Coffing ....................................(202) 720-3761 Paul Kiendl…………………………(202) 720-8870 Dairy Export Incentive Program Paul Kiendl..........................................(202) 720-8870 Dairy Breeding Cattle, Embryos, Semen Mohair and Wool

Deputy Director for Marketing

Roger Wentzel .................................... (202) 720-1353 Head, Marketing Group Barbara Wolff……………………….(202) 720-4456 Mary Ponomarenko…………………(202) 720-4455 Sanitary/Phytosanitary Issues

Kathleen Wainio ................................. (202) 720-2461 Amanda Penn………………….……(202) 720-7264

Jeff Jones………. ....................................... (202) 720-2208 Stephanie Riddick........................................ (202) 720-7571 Jeff Jones………. ....................................... (202) 720-2208 Jeff Jones………. ....................................... (202) 720-2208 Willie Brooks............................................... (202) 720-3690 Willie Brooks............................................... (202) 720-3690 Marsha Sheehan.......................................... (202) 720-1352 Gary Fountain.............................................. (202) 720-1352 Stephanie Riddick........................................ (202) 720-7571 Mary Ponomarenko..................................... (202) 720-4455

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

Contents

World Markets and Trade - 3

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade Note to Readers ...................................................................................................................4

Commodity and Market Analysis Cattle and Beef World Beef Trade Overview........................................................................................ 5 Beef Summary Table ................................................................................................... 8 Swine and Pork World Pork Trade Overview........................................................................................ 10 Pork Summary Table ................................................................................................... 13 Poultry World Broiler Trade Overview .................................................................................... 15 Broiler Summary Table................................................................................................ 18 Turkey Summary Table ............................................................................................... 20 To view this information on the internet, please go to: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html


NOTE TO READERS The Livestock and Poultry: World Market and Trade circular is designed to give the reader a snapshot picture of what is happening among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption are presented to provide a quick overview of the world situation. In addition, an explanation of significant changes in production, supply, and demand (PSD) situations is provided for major meat importing and exporting countries. World Totals Only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means world totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported has changed periodically. Most recently, several countries have been dropped from the database for 2003 for beef and poultry. For beef, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are dropped. For broiler, Colombia and Egypt are dropped; and for turkey, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan are dropped from the 2003 database. PSD Online Now Available The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on FAS Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. FAS Online can be reached at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd In addition, please refer to the USDA/FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry (DLP) website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html for additional data and analysis, such as the International Agricultural Trade Reports, Trade at a Glance and Country Pages. These reports are posted regularly on the homepage covering analysis on current issues and topics, new trade data, and market competition.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html


World Beef Trade Overview Total Beef Trade Forecast at New Record Level for 2003; U.S. Forecast to Make Minor Gains World Trade: Total beef exports are forecast at 6.5 million tons in 2003, an increase of nearly 5 percent over the 2002 estimate. As global competition intensifies, beef exports are forecast higher for most major exporters. Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay as they continue their moves toward exporting more fresh/chilled beef account for much of the increased competition. Australian exports are expected to reach a record-breaking 1.5 million tons, while Canadian exports are forecast to fall in 2003. Japan is forecast to account for half of the total imports increase. Korea is expected to import record volumes of beef in 2003. In 2003, U.S. beef exports are forecast to increase marginally to a record 1.15 million tons, while imports will remain flat around the record level of 1.5 million tons. Key Exporters: • United States: Beef exports for 2003 are forecast up marginally at 1.15 million tons.

After rising 3 percent in 2002, due to increased slaughter combined with higher slaughter weights, U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 5.3 percent to 11.7 million tons in 2003. With less beef supply available, export expansion will be significantly constrained. The U.S. cattle herd is expected to undergo its seventh year of contraction and fall to 95.6 million head come January 1, 2003, its lowest level since 1959. Higher cattle retention for herd rebuilding during 2003 will reduce domestic beef supplies and consumption is forecast to fall 550,000 tons to 12.2 million tons in 2003.

• Australia: Total beef exports are forecast to grow to a record 1.5 million tons in

2003. Australia’s beef production is forecast to reach a record 2.25 million tons as Australia’s cattle numbers return to levels not seen since the 1970’s. The United States is Australia’s largest export market, however, the U.S. beef import quota, which Australia filled in 2001 and is likely to fill again in 2002 and 2003, is expected to limit growth in that market. With more fresh/chilled and frozen beef moving to export, Australian beef prices are likely to continue their downward trend and pressure competitors in export markets.

• Brazil: Continuing a decade of expanding beef production, Brazil’s beef output is

expected to reach a record 7.4 million tons in 2003. This strong growth in the beef sector will lead to record beef exports. Exporting only 306,000 tons in 1998, Brazil is forecast to export a record 925,000 tons in 2003. Acceptance of its regional FMD-free status in many countries in 2002 allowed Brazil to expand its presence in Europe and enter new markets, such as Egypt, Russia, and China. Brazil has changed its product mix with approximately three-quarters of Brazil’s exports now consisting of frozen and fresh/chilled beef. Benefiting from a number of currency devaluations, low production costs and recent investment to expand production capacity, Brazil has become the world’s third largest beef exporter.


• Canada: Canada’s exports in 2003 are expected to fall to 600,000 tons as Canadian cattle herds, estimated to have reached a record 13.7 million head on January 1, 2002, are forecast to fall 2 percent by January 1, 2003. Canadian producers have reduced inventories due to high feed prices and a severe drought in 2002. Although exports are expected to fall in 2003, Canada will continue to export primarily higher-value, fresh/chilled beef cuts.

• European Union: Beef exports for 2003 are forecast at 570,000 tons, up from the

2002 estimate, but well below the 854,000 tons moved in 1999. The EU is expected to concentrate on exporting to its Russian and Eastern European neighbors. Many of the EU’s trading partners in the Middle East have maintained restrictions concerning BSE, forcing the EU to direct beef export refunds to smaller markets. Future export growth will be constrained by declining cattle inventories. Cattle numbers are set to fall to 79.8 million head in 2003, 2.4 million less than the 2000 level.

Key Importers: • United States: Beef imports for 2003 are forecast unchanged at a record 1.5 million

tons. Australia for the first time since 1995, filled its import quota of 378,214 tons (product weight basis) in 2001, and is likely to do so again in 2002 and 2003. In 2001, nearly 60 percent of U.S. beef imports consisted of frozen beef, most of which came from Australia. Canada is the most important U.S. supplier of high-quality, fresh/chilled beef. Due to outbreaks of FMD in Uruguay and Argentina in 2001, the United States stopped imports of fresh/chilled and frozen beef from these two countries.

• Japan: Beef imports for 2003 are forecast at 860,000 tons, well above the 2002

estimate of 700,000 tons. Beef demand in 2003 is expected to rebound, however, as concerns about the safety of beef consumption diminish. As a result of strong imports, Japan is expected to trigger a safeguard on beef imports sometime in the summer of 2003. Once triggered, and if Japan enacts the safeguard, beef import tariffs will rise from 38.5 percent to 50 percent. These will remain in effect for at least the remainder of Japan Fiscal Year 2003, which ends on March 31, 2004. A safeguard action could slow import growth by raising domestic prices of imported beef and possibly cause significant imports in the first half of 2003 in anticipation of the safeguard announcement.

• Russia: Beef imports for 2003 are forecast at 740,000 tons, up 40,000 tons from the

2002 estimate. Imports largely consist of low-grade, frozen beef for further processing into sausage. However, imports of fresh/chilled beef rose to a record 15 percent of imports in 2001 to meet the needs of Russia’s expanding hotel and tourism industries. The cattle herd in Russia is forecast to continue its decline, with cattle inventories in 2003 only half the level a decade earlier.

• EU: Beef imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 530,000 tons, up 30,000 tons from

the 2002 estimate. Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are the greatest beneficiaries of expanding EU demand. U.S. exports to the EU continue to be limited because of the hormone ban. The cattle herd in the EU is forecast to decline as some farmsteads


elect to permanently leave the beef industry in response to declining government financial support. With the gap between total exports and imports falling to only 40,000 tons in 2003, the EU has moved much closer to becoming a net beef importer.

• Mexico: In 2003, beef imports, forecast at 445,000 tons are forecast to set their

seventh consecutive record. Mexico’s cattle herd has steadily declined since 1994 as a result of extended drought and a weakening peso, which has forced many medium and small feedlots to go out of business due to high production costs and an inability to repay loans. Beginning inventories are forecast at 20.7 million head for 2003, 33 percent below a decade earlier. With rising disposable incomes, Mexico is increasingly looking at imports to meet consumer demand.

• Korea: Beef imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 420,000 tons, up 30,000 tons

from the 2002 record estimate. Korea’s cattle herd is in its sixth year of decline with the 2003 cattle inventory standing at 2 million head, about 40 percent below its 1997 high of 3.4 million head. Korea has begun to import substantial amounts of fresh/chilled beef as the last of its barriers to trade and retail sales of imported beef fell in late 2001. With high domestic beef prices and a declining herd, Korea’s beef imports are expected to expand.

U.S. Beef Exports Forecast to Increase Marginally, Setting a New Record in 2003

1,000 tons (CWE)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1994 1997 2000 2003(f)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Brazil 6,140 6,270 6,520 6,895 7,136 7,385

European Union 1/ 7,512 7,569 7,462 6,896 7,250 7,150

China, Peoples Republic of 4,799 5,054 5,328 5,488 5,600 5,700

Argentina 2,600 2,840 2,880 2,680 2,640 2,730

Australia 1,989 1,956 1,988 2,052 2,100 2,250

Mexico 1,800 1,900 1,900 1,925 1,930 1,935

India 1,593 1,660 1,700 1,770 1,810 1,920

Russian Federation 2,090 1,900 1,840 1,760 1,730 1,670

Canada 1,150 1,238 1,246 1,250 1,260 1,215

South Africa 539 584 630 665 660 670

Others 2/ 6,830 6,517 6,293 5,618 5,771 4,494

Total Foreign 37,042 37,488 37,787 36,999 37,887 37,119

United States 11,804 12,124 12,196 11,890 12,333 11,682

Total 48,846 49,612 49,983 48,889 50,220 48,796

European Union 1/ 7,238 7,485 7,645 6,455 7,272 7,260

Brazil 5,941 5,863 6,102 6,191 6,378 6,540



Argentina 2,330 2,498 2,541 2,551 2,368 2,395

Mexico 2,101 2,250 2,309 2,341 2,362 2,372

India 1,348 1,438 1,335 1,400 1,410 1,500

Japan 1,479 1,475 1,534 1,371 1,300 1,394

Canada 951 994 992 969 969 943

Australia 712 722 660 662 690 740

Others 2/ 6,501 6,592 6,371 5,718 5,867 4,708

Total Foreign 36,168 37,061 37,088 35,511 36,622 35,947

United States 12,055 12,327 12,400 12,259 12,705 12,159

Total 48,223 49,388 49,488 47,770 49,327 48,106

(p) preliminary; (f) forecast

Note: 1/ EU pre-2000 are partial EU data; 2000 and later is total EU-15.

2/ For 2003, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are dropped from the database.

Beef and Veal Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

Consumption

Production

Source: Counselor and attache reports, offical statistics, and results of office research.


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Japan 943 959 1,016 955 700 860

Russian Federation 684 838 478 653 700 740

European Union 1/ 326 351 448 413 500 530

Mexico 307 358 420 426 440 445

Korea, Republic of 125 242 324 246 390 420

Canada 232 254 263 299 330 325

Egypt 159 218 236 105 150 200

Philippines 81 99 118 104 115 130

Taiwan 82 94 83 78 95 100

Brazil 102 54 72 44 80 80

Others 2/ 333 313 241 205 190 192

Total Foreign 3,374 3,780 3,699 3,528 3,690 4,022

United States 1,199 1,304 1,375 1,435 1,500 1,500

Total 4,573 5,084 5,074 4,963 5,190 5,522

Australia 1,268 1,270 1,338 1,395 1,420 1,500

Brazil 306 464 492 748 838 925

Canada 428 492 523 574 625 600

European Union 1/ 678 854 645 572 530 570

New Zealand 488 442 485 500 510 530

India 3/ 245 222 365 370 400 420

Argentina 303 359 357 168 280 340

Uruguay 218 189 236 145 220 250

Ukraine 162 211 196 124 120 110

China, Peoples Republic of 88 57 54 60 45 40

Others 2/ 201 126 128 133 120 85

Total Foreign 4,385 4,686 4,819 4,789 5,108 5,370

United States 985 1,093 1,119 1,029 1,119 1,148

Total 5,370 5,779 5,938 5,818 6,227 6,518

2/ For 2003, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are dropped from the database. 3/ Includes buffalo.

Exports

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

Beef and Veal Summary Selected Countries




Imports



World Pork Overview

Total Pork Trade Forecast at Record Level for 2003; U.S. Exports Forecast to Increase for the 13th Consecutive Year World Summary: Pork trade is forecast to continue growing in 2003. Total pork exports are forecast at a record 3.9 million tons in 2003, an increase of 2 percent over the estimated 2002 level. Despite a forecast decrease in the United States 2003 pork production, U.S. pork exports are forecast higher, while Brazil and Canada’s export growth rate is forecast to slow from the 2002 estimated level. E.U. pork exports are forecast to increase as production expands. All the major pork import markets are forecast to rise above their estimated 2002 level. Although Japan has triggered the pork safeguard tariff, pork imports are forecast to increase to a record level in 2003. In Russia, an improving economy allows the pork import forecast to climb slightly. For the United States, both pork exports and imports are forecast at a record level. Key Exporters: • United States: U.S. pork production in 2003 is forecast to decline as producers

respond to rising feed grain prices and fears of overproduction. As herds contract, pork production is forecast to decrease 2 percent from the 2002 level. Pork exports for 2003 are forecast at a record 726,000 tons as demand by major importers will help fuel exports. U.S. pork exports are still heavily concentrated in Japan and Mexico, 50 and 22 percent, respectively, of total U.S. pork exports. Pork imports are forecast to increase to a record 490,000 tons as pork products, mainly from Canada, continue to cross the border of this growing integrated market. Live hog imports from Canada are forecast to stabilize in 2003 at 6.0 million head as a fall in slaughter hog imports is equally offset by an increase in feeder hogs.

• Brazil: After the extraordinary growth of the last two years, pork export expansion

for 2003 is forecast to slow to nearly 8 percent. Low production costs and recent investments to expand production and slaughter capacity have succeeded in making Brazil a major pork exporter. Brazil has budgeted $3 million in a marketing program to promote foreign sales of pork. For 2003, the pork production growth rate is forecast to slow as relatively high feed costs will likely trim profit margins for hog producers. Brazil is expected to continue expanding exports in the coming years, but exports may begin to slow as traders must look to non-traditional markets for further growth. Most of the recent growth in pork exports to Russia has been in lower-priced frozen carcass and half-carcasses.

• Canada: Canada’s pork exports are forecast at 815,000 tons in 2003, the 9th

consecutive record. In 1999, Canada’s pork production jumped sharply with the surplus being diverted to exports. The following year, Canada overtook the United States as the world’s largest pork exporting country. The United States is the destination for almost 60 percent of Canadian pork exports. Trade between the United States and Canada is likely to continue to increase as meat markets - on both sides of the border - become “North American” in scope. Canada exports nearly 20


percent of its annual pig crop to the United States with about 65 percent of the total moving as feeder pigs. The proportion of feeder pig exports to the United States is increasing, especially as Canada gears up its pork slaughtering facilities to capture more slaughter-weight pigs. For 2003, hog exports are forecast unchanged at 6.0 million head.

• European Union: After the sharp decline in pork exports in 2001 due to foot-and-

mouth disease (FMD), exports were revived in 2002 and are forecast to continue to climb into 2003. Pork exports for 2003 are forecast at 1.3 million tons, up 2 percent from the 2002 estimate. Processed pork continues to be eligible for export refunds, while export refunds for fresh/chilled/frozen pork were terminated in July 2000. The EU pig crop in 2003 is forecast to decline slightly as Netherlands and Belgium face environmental constraints and the United Kingdom struggles to recover from FMD. A forecast slight increase in pork output in 2003 will likely be carried over to exports as consumption is projected to be stable. Imports are forecast unchanged as EU processors have enough low priced material to meet domestic demand. However, double zero agreements are expected to keep imports from the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) competitive in the EU, and prevent imports from falling significantly.

Key Importers: • United States: Pork imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 490,000 tons, up 2

percent from the estimated 2002 level. Canada continues to be the dominant foreign supplier, accounting for approximately 80 percent of U.S. pork imports. Canada’s competitiveness and proximity to the U.S. will continue to facilitate trade. In 2003, the EU is likely to regain only a part of its pre-FMD share of the U.S. pork market.

• Hong Kong: Pork imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 300,000 tons, up 5

percent from the estimated 2002 level as consumer demand for pork continues to increase. A sluggish economy, higher unemployment rate, and a recurrence of an avian disease outbreak in Hong Kong are causing consumers to switch to pork from other meats. In addition, consumer preferences are changing from freshly slaughtered meats to chilled/frozen meats due to gradual changes in eating habits and concern over sanitary conditions in the wet market. Pork imports from China continue to increase as the Chinese government now allows more than one agent to market its meat in Hong Kong.

• Japan: Pork production has been steadily declining due to the shrinking number of

swine producers. From 1992 to 2001, the number of hog producers has dropped by one-third and at the same time, pork consumption has grown to a record level. Pork imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 1.2 million tons, 2 percent above the estimated 2002 level. The imposition of a safeguard tariff in August 2002, lasting through March 31, 2003, is expected to have little effect on pork imports. Pork imports have jumped over the past several years due, in part, to BSE and other food safety and labeling concerns with beef.


• Mexico: Pork imports for 2003 are forecast at a record 310,000 tons, up 3 percent from the estimated 2002 level. Under NAFTA, import tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on pork are scheduled to be eliminated on January 1, 2003. The U.S. accounted for about 85 percent of Mexican imports in 2001, while Canada supplied the balance. Under NAFTA, Canada has a much lower quota level than the United States before the 20 percent over-quota tariff could be applied. With the elimination of TRQs, Canada may become more competitive with the United States when all pork from the United States and Canada will have equal access to the Mexican market. Hog imports, mostly from the United States, are estimated at 200,000 head for 2002, but imports are forecast to decline 25 percent in 2003 as U.S. hog prices are projected to increase and the domestic hog industry continues to grow.

• Russia: Pork imports for 2003 are forecast at 710,000 tons, up 1 percent from the

estimated 2002 level. Suppliers of inexpensive meat cuts continue to do very well in the Russian market. Aided by a devaluation of the Real, Brazil has replaced the EU as the main supplier of pork, and accounts for almost 50 percent of Russia’s imports. For the third consecutive year, pork consumption is projected to grow, increasing 5 percent due, in part, to an improving economy and stronger domestic pork sector. After bottoming in 2000, Russia’s pork industry is beginning to grow with increasing investments and producers are expanding breeding stock to take advantage of inexpensive feed grain availability.

U.S. Pork Exports at a Record Level, But Remains Relatively Constant After Surging in 2001

1,000 tons (CWE)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1994 1997 2000 2003(f)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)


European Union 1/ 17,392 18,059 17,585 17,419 17,800 17,820

Brazil 1,690 1,835 2,010 2,230 2,356 2,430

Canada 1,337 1,550 1,638 1,729 1,830 1,865


Poland 1,650 1,675 1,620 1,547 1,585 1,640

Korea, Republic of 992 950 1,004 1,077 1,161 1,200

Japan 1,285 1,277 1,269 1,245 1,200 1,190

Philippines 933 973 1,008 1,064 1,095 1,120

Mexico 950 994 1,035 1,065 1,085 1,100

Others 4,129 4,128 3,806 3,683 3,780 3,790

Total Foreign 70,705 72,987 72,789 74,464 76,492 77,955

United States 8,623 8,758 8,597 8,691 8,973 8,819

Total 79,328 81,745 81,386 83,155 85,465 86,774


European Union 1/ 15,843 16,301 16,169 16,239 16,560 16,555


Japan 2,146 2,212 2,228 2,269 2,335 2,368

Brazil 1,581 1,727 1,826 1,919 1,956 2,000

Poland 1,462 1,484 1,544 1,476 1,550 1,607

Mexico 1,045 1,131 1,252 1,298 1,325 1,350

Korea, Republic of 940 984 1,059 1,158 1,286 1,325

Canada 955 1,063 1,047 1,087 1,129 1,155

Philippines 942 997 1,032 1,073 1,105 1,130

Others 4,438 4,456 4,093 3,988 4,077 4,129

Total Foreign 70,311 72,700 72,560 74,390 76,457 77,998

United States 8,305 8,596 8,457 8,388 8,725 8,572

Total 78,616 81,296 81,017 82,778 85,182 86,570




Pork Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

Consumption

Production


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Japan 777 919 995 1,068 1,125 1,150


Mexico 144 190 276 294 300 310

Hong Kong 207 217 247 260 285 300


Canada 64 65 68 91 100 105


European Union 1/ 40 54 54 55 60 60

Romania 53 27 29 46 55 55

Poland 74 55 47 23 50 50

Others 160 227 223 188 194 202

Total Foreign 2,341 2,785 2,683 2,766 3,074 3,162

United States 320 375 439 431 479 490

Total 2,661 3,160 3,122 3,197 3,553 3,652

European Union 1/ 1,004 1,390 1,470 1,235 1,300 1,325

Canada 432 554 658 727 800 815

Brazil 105 109 163 337 400 430


Hungary 109 131 143 118 120 110

Poland 220 235 160 100 80 85

Australia 17 37 49 66 79 83

Mexico 49 53 59 61 60 60


Czech Republic 27 10 8 14 27 25

Others 20 23 14 5 5 7

Total Foreign 2,242 2,730 2,827 2,844 3,116 3,195

United States 558 580 584 708 709 726

Total 2,800 3,310 3,411 3,552 3,825 3,921

Exports

Pork Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)




Imports



World Broiler Overview Total Broiler Meat Trade Forecast to Rebound in 2003 World Trade: Total broiler meat exports in 2003 for major exporting countries are forecast to return to record levels at 5.6 million tons, a 4-percent increase from the 2002 estimate. The top 4 exporting countries, the United States, Brazil, the EU, and Thailand, are expected to dominate export markets due mainly to availability of supplies, price competitiveness, and for the EU, increased subsidies. For 2003, broiler meat imports for major countries are forecast at 4.5 million tons, a 2-percent increase from the 2002 estimate. China, the EU, Japan, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are expected to account for more than 80 percent of imports. Key Exporters: • United States: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 2.47 million tons, a 12-

percent increase from the 2002 estimate, and approaching the 2001 record level. The expected increase in exports is largely attributed to the recent agreement on export certification with Russia, the largest market for U.S. poultry. Gains in exports to key markets in Asia and the Americas are expected as strong demand by the food service industry continues. In addition, Mexico’s scheduled elimination of tariffs and tariff-rate quotas under NAFTA will likely improve opportunities for U.S. broiler meat exports.

• Brazil: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 1.3 million tons, a nearly 7-

percent decrease from the 2002 estimate. The decrease in exports is mainly attributed to domestic and overseas market developments. In spite of continued gains in 2003, the rate of production growth is expected to be slower largely because of the devaluation in Brazil’s currency and tight domestic corn supplies, which have increased input costs. Demand in the home market continues to strengthen as broiler meat is seen as a low cost alternative to other meat protein sources. Developments in Saudi Arabia and the EU, the two largest markets for Brazilian broiler products, will likely impact Brazil’s broiler meat exports. Saudi Arabia alleges excessive water content in Brazilian products, while the EU has imposed a higher duty on frozen poultry product. These two markets each accounted for 20 percent of Brazil’s total broiler exports in 2001.

• European Union: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 695,000 tons, nearly

a 4-percent increase from the 2002 estimate. The increase in exports is attributed to greater access to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and larger export refunds for other markets. EU broiler meat exports will gain greater access to CEECs under the double-zero agreement, which eliminates tariffs and prohibits the use of export refunds. In 2001, about 14 percent of the EU’s total broiler meat exports were destined to CEECs, compared to 10 percent in 2000. Furthermore, increased export refunds on poultry for 2003 will improve EU’s price


competitiveness in the Middle East and Russia, key markets for whole birds and parts, accounting for 40 percent of EU’s broiler exports in 2001. In its 2003 preliminary budget, the EU allocated 80 million euros ($79 million), a 45-percent increase from 2002, for poultry export restitutions. The EU is allowed to subsidize up to 286,000 tons of poultry exports per year under its WTO commitment.

• Thailand: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast to increase 5 percent from the

estimated 2002 level to 435,000 tons, due mainly to its competitive prices in Japan and the EU, the two largest markets for Thai broiler meat. Thailand supplies primarily value-added parts (semi-cooked and cooked products) to Japan, while it exports frozen parts to the EU. In response to the EU’s detection of a veterinary drug (nitrofuran) in frozen products in March 2002, Thailand banned the use of the drug and its derivatives in production, and continues to improve testing facilities.

Key Importers: • China: Broiler meat imports for 2003 are expected to decrease nearly 8 percent from the

2002 estimate to 350,000 tons, as an increase in production supports gains in consumption. This forecast excludes China’s imports of chicken paws/feet. Chicken paws/feet imports were removed from the supply and distribution data series (1997 to date) to more accurately measure the size of muscle meat demand. China’s broiler meat and paw imports are attached to the China Country Page. The page can be accessed at http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/countrypages/china.html.

• European Union: Broiler meat imports for 2003 are expected to increase 9 percent

from the 2002 estimate to 600,000 tons, due mainly to increased imports from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) under double zero agreements, as well as from Brazil and Thailand. Imports from CEECs are expected to rise as trade becomes more liberalized. In an effort to control poultry imports from Brazil and Thailand, the EU Commission in June 2002 reclassified lightly salted poultry product from a frozen salted product to simply a frozen product. It argued that the product was primarily a frozen product before being salted, thus allowing the EU to impose a higher duty. Frozen poultry meat has a 30-percent duty, compared with a 15-percent duty on salted poultry meat.

• Japan: Broiler meat imports for 2003 are forecast at 700,000 tons, down nearly 7

percent from the 2002 level due mainly to rising stocks. Stocks (mainly frozen broilers) in June 2002 were reportedly up 31 percent to 116,000 tons from the corresponding period last year. However, imports of further processed products are expected to rise due to strengthening demand in the retail and food service sectors and competitive prices from Thailand and China.

• Mexico: Broiler meat imports in 2003 are expected to increase 14 percent from the

revised 2002 import level to 290,000 tons supported by expansion in the food service industry. Mexico’s NAFTA commitment should also contribute to larger imports. Effective January 2003, Mexico is committed to eliminating tariffs and tariff-rate

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/countrypages/china.html


quotas on poultry, thereby providing greater opportunities for U.S. broiler meat exports. The United States is the largest supplier of broiler meat to Mexico.

• Russia: Broiler meat imports are expected to increase 7 percent from the revised

2002 level to a new record at 1.3 million tons in 2003 due mainly to strong demand. Rising production due to favorable grain harvests and increased investment in the poultry sector supports consumption gains in the short-term. Despite an extended trade dispute over certification of imports from the United States, Russia’s broiler meat imports from the world for 2002 are projected to reach 1.22 million tons, only 5 percent below the 2001 record level as other countries have expanded exports to Russia.

• Saudi Arabia: Broiler meat imports in 2003 are forecast to decrease slightly to

385,000 tons as growth in production exceeds the forecast in consumption gains. Imports are expected to remain relatively constant due to competitive prices compared to domestically produced products.

U.S. Broiler Exports Forecast to Rebound in 2003

1,000 tons (RTC)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1997 2000 2003(f)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Brazil 4,498 5,526 5,980 6,567 7,040 7,180

European Union 1/ 6,789 6,614 6,654 6,822 6,750 6,760


Mexico 1,587 1,784 1,936 2,067 2,188 2,297

India 710 820 1,080 1,250 1,400 1,500

Thailand 930 980 1,070 1,230 1,320 1,380

Japan 1,097 1,078 1,091 1,074 1,090 1,080

Canada 798 847 877 927 945 975

Malaysia 660 684 786 813 832 846

South Africa 667 681 707 730 745 760

Others 2/ 6,523 6,631 6,866 6,905 6,940 6,059

Total Foreign 27,709 30,045 32,097 33,585 34,650 34,287

United States 12,525 13,367 13,703 14,033 14,519 14,808

Total 40,234 43,412 45,800 47,618 49,169 49,095

European Union 1/ 6,168 6,048 6,191 6,522 6,630 6,665

Brazil 3,904 4,776 5,087 5,326 5,615 5,855


Mexico 1,766 1,970 2,154 2,301 2,443 2,587


Japan 1,697 1,742 1,772 1,797 1,815 1,790

India 710 820 1,080 1,249 1,398 1,495

Canada 794 866 891 927 944 974

Thailand 658 683 735 823 855 915

Malaysia 668 705 812 846 866 881

Others 2/ 7,850 8,144 8,209 8,232 8,175 7,256

Total Foreign 29,066 31,649 33,445 34,795 35,959 35,666

United States 10,502 11,251 11,474 11,557 12,265 12,364

Total 39,568 42,900 44,919 46,352 48,224 48,030



Broiler Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

Consumption

Production

2/ For 2003, Colombia and Egypt are dropped from the database.



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Russian Federation 1,020 930 943 1,281 1,220 1,300

Japan 590 667 721 710 750 700

European Union 2/ 167 198 299 418 550 600

Saudi Arabia 287 364 348 399 390 385


Mexico 181 188 219 235 255 290

Hong Kong 269 391 239 234 238 243

United Arab Emirates 122 117 111 123 135 140


Canada 55 62 69 73 72 80

Kuwait 45 54 53 62 60 61

Others 3/ 379 377 352 300 244 239

Total Foreign 3,555 3,986 4,029 4,391 4,389 4,486

Total 3,555 3,986 4,029 4,391 4,389 4,486

Brazil 594 750 893 1,241 1,425 1,325

European Union 2/ 788 764 762 718 670 695

Thailand 274 288 328 425 415 435


Canada 53 47 55 69 75 80

Hungary 52 45 35 35 32 32

Saudi Arabia 21 16 16 20 20 20

United Arab Emirates 23 19 20 20 20 20 Australia 13 12 14 19 15 15

Argentina 6 3 5 6 10 14

Others 3/ 71 63 45 44 44 48

Total Foreign 2,218 2,382 2,637 3,086 3,126 3,084

United States 1,978 2,080 2,231 2,521 2,208 2,472

Total 4,196 4,462 4,868 5,607 5,334 5,556

Broiler Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)


Note: 1/ As of 1997, chicken feet / paws are not included in trade data.

Imports 1/

Exports 1/

3/ For 2003, Colombia and Egypt are dropped from the database.

2/ EU pre-1997 are partial EU data; 1997 and later is total EU-15.



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

European Union 1/ 1,700 1,830 1,740 1,777 1,750 1,755

Brazil 107 115 137 165 182 200

Poland 90 92 115 150 165 170

Canada 139 139 152 149 147 152

Hungary 62 73 78 84 88 90

Mexico 11 12 12 13 13 14


South Africa 1 2 3 4 5 5

Others 2/ 86 91 95 8 5 0

Total Foreign 2,205 2,362 2,339 2,357 2,363 2,396

United States 2,366 2,372 2,419 2,490 2,533 2,541

Total 4,571 4,734 4,758 4,847 4,896 4,937

European Union 1/ 1,526 1,640 1,553 1,602 1,520 1,520

Mexico 140 151 163 176 168 189


Poland 99 85 108 158 163 167

Canada 139 136 137 135 143 146

Brazil 87 89 93 96 107 119

Hungary 49 51 55 69 63 63

South Africa 17 21 24 19 20 20

Others 2/ 105 142 142 49 33 0

Total Foreign 2,318 2,484 2,445 2,475 2,390 2,399

United States 2,214 2,223 2,223 2,269 2,288 2,319

Total 4,532 4,707 4,668 4,744 4,678 4,718

Turkey Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

Consumption

Production




2/ For 2003, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan are dropped from the database.


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (p) 2003 (f)

Mexico 130 143 159 171 160 180


European Union 1/ 35 44 61 86 120 120

South Africa 16 19 21 15 15 15

Poland 13 8 10 16 10 10

Canada 4 5 4 5 6 6

Hungary 7 3 3 9 5 5

Others 2/ 30 66 52 34 28 0

Total Foreign 382 449 473 500 509 501

Total 382 449 473 500 509 501

European Union 1/ 209 234 248 261 350 355

Brazil 20 26 44 69 75 81

Hungary 20 25 26 24 30 32

Canada 10 10 14 14 14 15

Poland 4 15 13 12 12 13

Mexico 1 4 8 8 5 5

Others 2/ 12 6 7 1 0 0

Total Foreign 276 320 360 389 486 501

United States 202 172 202 221 207 222

Total 478 492 562 610 693 723



Imports

2/ For 2003, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan are dropped from the database.


Exports

Turkey Summary Selected Countries1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)


record meat trade forecast for 2003 - cornell university · 2002/10/1 · hong kong, korea,...

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