reclaiming progressive austraila: demographic change and progressive political strategy in australia

8/7/2019 Reclaiming Progressive Austraila: Demographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy in Australia

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Reclaiming Progressive AustraliaDemographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy

in Australia

The Chifley Research Centre April 2011


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Te Demographic Change and Progressive Poliical Sraegy series o papers is a join projec organized

under he auspices o he Global Progress and Progressive Sudies programs and he Cener or American

Progress. Te research projec was launched ollowing he inaugural Global Progress conerence held in

Ocober 2009 in Madrid, Spain.

Te preparaory paper or ha conerence, Te European Paradox, sough o analyze why he orunes o

European progressive paries had declined ollowing he previous auumns sudden nancial collapse and

he global economic recession ha ensued. Te saring premise was ha progressives should, in principle,

have had wo srenghs going or hem:

Modernizing rends were shiing he demographic errain in heir poliical avor. Te inellecual and policy bankrupcy o conservaism, which had now proven isel devoid o creaive

ideas o how o shape he global economic sysem or he common good.

Despie hese laen advanages, we surmised ha progressives in Europe were sruggling or hree pri-

mary reasons. Firs, i was increasingly hard o diereniae hemselves rom conservaive opponens who

seemed o be wholehearedly adoping social democraic policies and language in response o he eco-

nomic crisis. Second, he nominally progressive majoriy wihin heir elecorae was being spli beween

compeing progressive movemens. Tird, heir radiional working-class base was increasingly being

seduced by a poliics o ideniy raher han economic argumens.

In response, we argued ha i progressives could dene heir long-erm economic agenda more clearly

and hus diereniae hemselves rom conservaivesas well as esablish broader and more inclusive

elecoral coaliions, and organize more eecively among heir core consiuencies o convey heir mes-

sage, hen hey should be able o resolve his paradox.

Te research papers in his series each evaluae hese demographic and ideological rends in greaer

naional deail and presen ideas or how progressives migh shape a more eecive poliical sraegy.

We are graeul o he Friedrich-Eber-Siung or heir suppor o his projec.

Mat Browne, John Halpin, and Ruy eixeira
http://www.boell.org/downloads/Browne_Halpin_Teixeira_EuropeanParadox.pdfhttp://www.boell.org/downloads/Browne_Halpin_Teixeira_EuropeanParadox.pdf


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1 Introduction

7 Shifting coalitions

23 The new progressive coalition

24 Conclusion

26 Endnotes

27 About the authors

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Reclaiming Progressive Australia

Introduction

Labor in government, 1983 to 1996 and 2007 to 2010

By 1990, he Ausralian Labor Pary had been in oce or seven years, having

reurned o oce in 1983 under he leadership o Bob Hawke. A he 1990 ed-

eral elecion, Bob Hawke led Labor o a hisoric ourh vicory over he conser-

vaive Liberal-Naional Coaliion, winning 78 o he 148 seas in he House o

Represenaives. Labors vicory came despie a low primary voe (39.44 percen)

and despie losing he naional wo-pary preerred voe 49.9 percen o 50.1 percen.(In he Ausralian sysem, he primary voe is a voers rs choice among all paries;

he wo-pary preerred voe is, in essence, which o he wo main parieshe

Labor Pary or Naional Coaliionhe voer preers).

Te 1990 elecion marked he high poin or he cenris Ausralian Democras

pary, which capured 11.26 percen o he primary voe. Te Ausralian

Democras narrowly ailed o win a sea in he House o Represenaives bu heir

voe was enough o ake heir represenaion o eigh seas in he Senae.

In 1991, Bob Hawke was challenged or he Labor leadership (and prime minis-

ership) by Paul Keaing, who had been reasurer since Labor had regained oce

in 1983. Paul Keaing would go on o win he 1993 elecion agains Liberal leader

John Hewson, who had proposed a radical neoliberal plaorm, Fighback, based

on deregulaion o he labor marke and he inroducion o a goods and services

ax. A ha elecion, Labors primary voe rebounded o 44.92 percen and he

pary won 51.44 percen o he wo-pary preerred voe.

Tis would be he las ederal elecion won by Labor or 11 years. In 1996, Labor

was sen ino opposiion. Te Liberal-Naional Coaliion led by John Howard won94 o he 148 seas in he House o Represenaives. A he nex elecion, under

he leadership o Kim Beazley, Labors voe and suppor rebounded srongly, in

anoher elecion ough on a Liberal promise o inroduce a goods and services

ax. Despie winning he wo-pary preerred voe, Labor did no win a majoriy


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o seas and remained in opposiion. In he shadow o divisive debaes abou er-

rorism and asylum seekers, Labor and Kim Beazley los he 2001 elecion. Tree

years laer, Labor los he 2004 elecion under he leadership o Mark Laham.

In 2007, he Ausralian Labor Parys opposiion leader Kevin Rudd ran a srong

and opimisic campaign agains an 11-year conservaive incumben. Rudds wasan ambiious plaorm o invesmen in services; responsible economic manage-

men; and social change, including promises o massive educaion and healh

care reorm, repeal o he so-called WorkChoices laws, which enrenched labor

marke exibiliy, and he promise o ackle climae change, which he described

as he grea moral challenge o our generaion.1 Te resul was a srong swing o

Labor and a moderae majoriy or he governmen. More imporanly, i arrived

wih signican poliical momenum behind i.

Te governmen immediaely se o work implemening is agenda wih an ambi-

ious 100-day plan ha commenced wih he raicaion o he Kyoo Agreemenon December 3, 2007, and hrough a long-anicipaed and welcomed apology o

he naions indigenous solen generaion. Comba roops were pulled ou o Iraq,

in line wih Labors elecion commimen o end his engagemen.

Trough hese early achievemens he governmen mainained high credibiliy

and populariy; however, some criicism began o emerge rom news commena-

ors and oher secions o he conservaive esablishmen promoing he argumen

ha he Rudd governmen was more ocused on reviews han on delivering solid

oucomes. Tis ollowed a number o signican reviews being commissioned in

key policy areas, including on axaion reorm and ino a model or an Emissions

rading Scheme or he naion. Conservaive commenaors buil heir case on

governmen inacion wih a combinaion o rising cos o living prices and by

criicizing a major summi called Ausralia 2020.

Held in April 2008 o help shape a long erm sraegy or he naions uure, his

summi aimed o include a populaion ha el isolaed rom heir governmen.

Chaired by Prime Miniser Rudd and Vice Chancellor Glyn Davis o he Universiy

o Melbourne, he Ausralia 2020 Summi brough ogeher 100 key nongovern-

men paricipans o Parliamen House o discuss and pu orward proposals orimproving 10 key areas o Ausralian sociey.2 All Ausralians were invied o send

in proposals or consideraion. Te governmen would hen respond o he resul-

ing proposals or he long-erm bene o Ausralia and is ciizens. Te scale o

he proposals pu orward rom he summi were seen by some in he communiy


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as unrealisic and unworkable. Tis helped o cemen a view among some ha he

governmen lacked a clear reorm direcion and agenda. Tis criique would be

mouned agains he governmen as laer poliical evens unolded.

Te governmen was able o answer some o is criics hrough he dening poliical

even o he period: he global nancial crisis. In lae 2008 he global nancial crisisreached is crisis poin wih he collapse o several major U.S. nancial insiuions

in Sepember and Ocober, and he consequences began o reverberae in Ausralia.

Te Rudd response was rapid and eecivein February 2009 a $A42 billion

(abou he same in U.S. dollars) simulus package was passed by Parliamen. Tis

package channelled budge surplus unds ino several naional building exercises,

including $A14.7 billion or he Building he Educaion Revoluion, or BER

program and $A3.7 billion or a plan o insall insulaion in homes.

Te simulus package kep Ausralia ou o recessionone o only a handul o

developed counries ha are likely o sail hrough he global downurn wih onlya small dip in growh.3 Emerging rom he successul response o he global crisis

were predicable and unounded conservaive atacks on deb, wase and misman-

agemen. Tese atacks were wihou basis, wih mos o he simulus projecs suc-

cessully delivered and delivered a a reasonable price or axpayers. Te dominance

o scally conservaive hinking and commenary in he public media did, however,

creae a climae where simulus programs were atacked, leading o a dicul polii-

cal environmen or he governmen as he Copenhagen Climae Summi neared.

A well-organized and aggressive conservaive media ocussed heavily on he

diculies wihin he simulus programs. Tese programs needed o be enaced

quickly o simulae he economy, and a bureaucracy ha had over he previous

10 years o neoliberal governmen been sripped o implemenaion capaciies

oen sruggled wih he workload. Ineviably, a small number o projecs became

he ocus o an inense media campaign. Sories o overpriced buildings and com-

muniies marginalized rom he decision-making process ed ino he inaccurae

bu poliically driven narraive ha he Rudd governmen was waseul, noncon-

sulaive, and adding o he naional deb.

Despie hese diculies, he governmen remained in an ascendan posiion andpushed orward wih is agenda owards he end o 2009. Tis included negoia-

ions wih he opposiion o pass legislaion or an Emissions rading Scheme.

Te process leading up o he deea o his legislaion dramaically spli he

conservaive opposiion, and a leadership challenge saw he deea by one voe o


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climae change believer opposiion leader Malcolm urnbull by climae change

skepic ony Abbot. Wih no prospec o legislaion passing on any o his legisla-

ive climae change proposals, Prime Miniser Rudd atended he Copenhagen

Climae Change Summi in December 2009. When he Copenhagen alks col-

lapsed, Rudd reurned o Ausralia o ace a very hosile environmen rom he

opposiion and he media, and, or he rs ime, he aced conusion rom wihinhis own pary and suppor base.

During he rs wo years o his governmen, Rudd had enjoyed unprecedened

high opinion polls. Bu rom December 2009 o March 2010, his saisacion ra-

ing dropped a dramaic 10 poins.

During his ime, Rudd became heavily ocused on a massive Ausralia-wide

series o consulaions and discussions on healh reorm. Bu he was increasingly

unable o cu hrough he ocus on seadily declining poll numbers and an agenda

increasingly owned by a reinvigoraed opposiion ha kep atenion rmly onheir campaign o label he governmen as poor economic managers.

Unable o grab any poll racion, in April 2010 he governmen announced i

would deer is planned Emissions rading Scheme unil a leas 2013. Following

he decision, a key group o voers who had swung o he ALP in 2007 now

looked o oher poliical paries.

Tis decision also occurred agains a backdrop o coninuing boa arrivals o asy-

lum seekers rom Ausralias norh. Tis was, as i has been or a decade or more, a

conenious issue or he ALP. No issue so divides Labors dual bases o progres-

sive Ausralians and ouer-suburban working amilies han his issue. Troughou

Rudds erm, here had been a worldwide seady increase in he numbers o

asylum seekers, wih increased numbers crossing by boa ino Ausralia. Te

opposiion mainained an increasingly hard lineormer Prime Miniser Howard

amously said on he eve o his winning 2001 elecion campaign, we will decide

who comes ino his counry and he circumsances in which hey come, and his

remained he undamenal core o he opposiion policy.

Playing ino a deep Ausralian ear o illegal immigraion, his issue has been con-sisenly used as a wedge issue agains Labor, working o spli he voe o lower-

income voershe working amilies ha carried Rudd over he line in 2007.


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In he lead-up o he 2010 May ederal budge, Rudd sough o gain ground and

mainain his economic credenials by announcing a Resource Super Pros ax,

or RSP, a 40 percen pro-based ax on he mining resources secor, as he

iniial sar o a 10-year ax reorm process. In response, he mining indusry hrew

millions o dollars a a series o ani-RSP ads. Te ani-RSP campaign was

joined by he Wesern Ausralian Sae Governmen, by he ederal opposiion,and by he mulimillion-dollar mining communiy isel. Te mining ax became

he deah knell or an increasingly rusraed caucus.

On June 22, 2010, Te Australian published a Newspoll aken in marginal seas

he same seas ha carried Rudd o vicory in 2007. Te poll showed clearly he

deph o Rudds woes. On wo-pary preerred, Labor showed a 6 percen swing

agains hem in hree marginal Queensland seas, and a primary voe dropping

below 30 percen in some seas. As an indicaor o he mood o he elecorae, his

was a damning swing or a prime miniser rom Queensland.

On June 24, 2010, Kevin Rudd resigned as prime miniser and did no sand or

he prime minisership a he Caucus meeing ha morning. Julia Gillard was

eleced Labor leader and prime miniser unopposed.

Prime Miniser Gillards rs acion was o neuralize he crippling debae sur-

rounding he Resource Super Pros ax. She immediaely canceled all govern-

men adverising and oered o renegoiae wih he mining companies. Te new

ax was announced on July 2, 2010, and was indeed a compromise soluion ha

neuralized he issue.

In an environmen o inense media speculaion as o he dae o he nex ederal

elecion, and as polls showed a sligh improvemen in he primary voe since

aking oce, Gillard announced on July 17, 2010, ha a ederal elecion would be

held on Augus 21, 2010.

In wha is now oen reerred o as one o he mos dicul campaigns in

Ausralian hisory, Gillard enered he campaign having neuralized he volaile

issues o he mining ax and on a sligh bounce associaed wih a new leader.

Alhough hamsrung wih no being able o campaign on he economic success ohe previous erm, he main campaign plaorm would be he inroducion o he

Naional Broadband Nework, a $A43 billion plan o provide a naionwide ber-

access nework o improve broadband capabiliies. ied in wih urher deail on

he healh reorm package sared by Rudd, his was o be a quie, sae campaign

ha would reinorce a new prime minisers credenials.


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During week wo o he campaign, cabine leaks were in every major Ausralian

media oule. Wih hese he elecion campaign became ocused once again on he

inernal acional disuniy o he ALP ollowing he leadership change.

As he campaign progressed, he opposiion played ou a small arge campaign,

aware o he weakness o ony Abbot as an alernaive prime miniser. By hal-way hrough he campaign, i was clear ha he suppor ha had bled rom he

ALP o he Greens was no reurning. Te Coaliion remained seady and in a

srong posiion.

On elecion day (Augus 21, 2010), neiher major pary emerged wih a clear win

in erms o seas. Labor had won he popular voe, hough, and was able o claim

a mandae. Te Green Pary won a sea in he House o Represenaives, one ha

had previously been held by he ALP since 1904. Boh leaders o he major paries

gave brie elecion nigh speeches bu i was obvious ha i would ake some ime

beore he nal resul was known.

In ac, i ook 17 days. During his ime, he ALP secured he popular voe

and made an agreemen wih he Green Pary o provide suppor (he Green

Pary would hold conrol o he Senae rom July 1, 2011). Boh he ALP and

he Coaliion won 72 o he 150 seas each, bu wih he Green Pary and hree

Independens, he ALP ormed he rs ederal minoriy governmen since 1940,

wih a very slim wo-sea majoriy over he Coaliion.

While he elecion resul and he subsequen minoriy governmen was an

exraordinary resul, he wo major paries in Ausralian ederal poliics rarely

have a large gap beween heir nal voe couns. Te 2010 elecion, however,

saw some radiional Labor voing blocs ranser heir voes no o he Liberal-

Naional Coaliion bu o he Green Pary. Te combinaion o his disillusioned

voe wih he diminishing numbers o he radiional Labor base (such as union

membership levels) led or he rs ime o a resul ha drained numbers rom he

le ank o he pary, even as he pary was suering losses o he Liberal-Naional

Coaliion rom populis righ-wing atacks on he governmen.

For he Ausralian Labor Pary, he greaes challenge lies in recapuring and rein-vigoraing a disillusioned base o working amilies and progressive voers hrough

reariculaing a clear and progressive reorm agenda. Tis is somehing he Gillard

Labor governmen is pursuing wih deerminaion hrough is legislaive and

poliical agenda.


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Shifting coalitions

A declining base

Te Ausralian Labor Pary was esablished in he lae 19h cenury by he labor

movemen, and rade union members remain one o he pary s mos reliable

voing blocs. Te wors ederal elecion deea or he ALP in he las 20 years

occurred in 1996 when John Howard deeaed Paul Keaing. Te wo-pary

preerred voe or Labor a ha elecion was jus 46.37 percen. According o he

Ausralian Elecion Sudy, union members were one o only wo demographicgroups (he oher being voers wih no religion) o give Labor a majoriy o he

wo-pary preerred voe in

1996. Six in 10 (60 percen)

union members suppored

Labor above he Coaliion.

While union members have

remained saunch Labor vo-

ers, heir numbers have dimin-

ished over ime. Since 1990,

he unionized proporion o

he Ausralian workorce has

more han halved. Currenly,

only around one in ve

Ausralian workers belongs

o a rade union. Tis decline

in he radiional core o he

Labor Pary has made he ask

o building a broader progres-sive coaliion an essenial and

urgen one (see Figure 1).

41%40%

38%35%

33%31%

30%

28%

26%25% 24%

23% 23% 23% 22%20%

19% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Figure 1

Union membership is declining in Australia

Proportion of the Australian workforce belonging to a trade union, 1990-2009

Source: Australian Bureau o Statistics.


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Women

Hisorically, here has been a gender gap in Ausralian poliics, wih men more

likely o suppor he ALP han women. Whereas he rade union movemen was

able o marshal suppor among men, especially in manual occupaions or he

ALP, women were more removed rom he srucures and prioriies o he pary.

Much has changed since he early days o he pary. Te ALP developed a long lis

o achievemens or women, including equal pay or equal work, removal o sex

discriminaion, suppor or child care, and mos recenly he inroducion o paid

parenal leave. Te ALP also led he way in he represenaion o women. o dae

here have been emale premiers in Wesern Ausralia (Carmen Lawrence, 1992),

Vicoria (Joan Kirner, 1992), Queensland (Anna Bligh, 2007-), New Souh Wales

(Krisina Kenneally, 2009-2010), and asmania (Lara Giddings, 2010-). Tere

have been emale chie minisers in Ausralias wo mainland erriorieshe

Norhern erriory (Clare Marin, 2001-2007) and he AC (Rosemary Follet,1989, 1991-1995). All o hem have come rom he ALP. In 2007, Julia Gillard

became Ausralias rs emale depuy prime miniser.

Noneheless, over mos o he las 20 years, a gender gap has persised. Te

gender gap was prominen in he 1993 elecion, when according o he Ausralian

Elecion Sudy, a majoriy o men cas heir primary voe or he ALP while

women voers narrowly preerred John Hewson and he Liberal-Naional

Coaliion over Paul Keaing and he ALP (see able 1).

Te 2007 elecion was he rs ime a posiive gender gap emerged. Available evi-

dence is ha his gender gap increased a he 2010 elecion. Julia Gillard assumed

Table 1

Only recently have women voted more for Labor than men

ALP primary vote by gender, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

Male 42 50 39 42 40 45

Female 40 44 34 40 38 46

Total 41 47 36 41 39 45

Gender gap -2 -6 -5 -2 -2 1

Source: Australian Election Study.


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he leadership o he Labor Pary and he prime minisership

in June. Te leader o he opposiion, ony Abbot, had a long

hisory o making commens widely condemned as oensive

o women. According o he las Newspoll published beore

he elecion, Julia Gillard had a 46-36 saised-dissaised

raing among emale voers. ony Abbots saisacion-dissaisacion spread among emale voers was 38 percen o

51 percen. Unlike in 1993, i was likely he emale voe ha

proved decisive and Labor was able o coninue in oce.

Changing social paterns provide some explanaion or he

slowly improving Labor suppor among emale voers. As

social paterns have changed over ime, marriage has become

less requen. Te ollowing gure uses census daa rom 1991

o 2006 and shows ha he number o emales aged 25 o 59

who are married has declined sharply over ime, while henumber o emales who have never married (including hose

in de aco relaionships) as well as hose who are separaed or

divorced have increased (see Figure 2).

Marial saus has proved o be a beter indicaor o Labor suppor among women

han labor orce paricipaion. I has generally been assumed ha Labor does

comparaively well among women working ull ime and less well among women

working par ime and women who are no in he labor orce. Bu his measure

presens a conusing picure since sudensa group ha ends o srongly preer

Labor o he conservaive Liberal-Naional coaliionmay be working par ime

or no a all. Over he las 20 years, Labor enjoyed sronger suppor rom women

who are single and rom hose who are separaed or divorced bu has done less

well among women who are married or in a de aco relaionship (see able 2).

Tese rends oer some hope or Labor ha he gender gap will persis in uure

elecions. Te dierence in suppor or he ALP beween single women and

women who are married or in de aco relaionships reecs a combinaion o

culural and liecycle acors. Being married ends o coincide wih purchasing a

home and having children o school-going agepolicy areas where Labor hasbeen subjeced o considerable atacks rom is opponens in recen elecions. I

i were jus or hese liesyle acors, he dierence in suppor migh no accoun

or much, since women would be assumed o move hrough dieren liecycles. A

number o demographic rends, however, are eviden.

13 1619

74 69 65

12 15 16

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1991 1996 2001 2

Separated or divorced

Married or widowedNever married

Figure 2

Single women are increasing in Austr

Marital status of females aged 25-59, 1991-2

Source: Australian Bureau o Statistics, Census data.


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Firs, women are enering ino relaionships laer in lie, meaning ha he never-

married phase is being exended. Second, women oday are much more likely o

be separaed or divorced han hey were 30 years ago, so his group o women isalso more imporan. I is also worh noing ha oher research has shown ha

people who are married are less likely o voe or Labor or oher le-o-cener par-

ies han hose who are in de aco relaionships. Tis could mean a shi oward

Labor over ime as well, as more couples choose no o ge married.

Ethnic background

Ausralia is a naion buil on immigraion. Ye here is no single ideniable

migran voing bloc. Over ime, he origin o Ausralias immigrans has shied.

Beore World War II, immigraion o Ausralia was predominanly rom oher

English-speaking counries (primarily he Unied Kingdom and Ireland). Aer

World War II, immigrans rom he Unied Kingdom were joined by displaced

Europeans, paricularly rom Ialy and Greece.

In he 1970s and 1980s, large numbers o reugees rom Vienam and oher

Souheas Asian counries were welcomed o Ausralia. More recenly, growing

numbers o immigrans have been arriving rom China and oher Norheas Asian

counries. From he Middle Eas, immigrans rom Lebanon and urkey rsbegan arriving in Ausralia prior o World War II. More recenly, larger numbers

o immigrans have arrived rom Iraq, Syria, and Norh Arica. In he las decade,

however, here has also been a resurgence in he number o immigrans rom he

Unied Kingdom (see Figure 3).

Table 2

The Labor party does better among single women voters

ALP primary support among women voters aged under 60, by marital status, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

Never married 44 52 37 52 42 49

Married/de facto 37 42 33 37 38 43

Separated/divorced 52 55 34 34 36 63

Total 40 45 35 39 39 46

Gap between never married and married/de facto 8 10 4 15 4 6

*Total includes widowed (not shown).



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Generally speaking, he Labor

Pary has enjoyed srong sup-

por rom voers born ouside

Ausralia. Labor has hisori-

cally done ar beter wih new

and esablished migran

communiies, wih he pary smore open approach o muli-

culuralism and immigraion

oen serving i well when new

elecors cas heir voes. Te

level o suppor or he Labor

Pary is even higher when only

hose born in non-English-

speaking counries are consid-

ered (see able 3).

Sample-size limiaions mean

i is impossible o presen

resuls or each elecion by

ehniciy, bu as a guide only

we presen he ALP primary

voe or he 1990-2007 elec-

ions (excluding he 2001

elecion, or which here are

no daa). o urher increase

he number o respondens,

we include respondens

whose paren(s) were born

Figure 3

About a quarter of Australias population was born outside the co

Immigrants to the country by region of birth

Source: Australian Bureau o Statistics, Census data, 2006.

Immigrants to the country by region of birth and time of arrival

Other English-speaking countries

Northeast Asia

Southeast Asia

Middle East andNorth Africa

Rest of world 77

84

53

33

54

46

5

5

14

14

11

10

6

6

12

19

13

17

12

6

20

34

23

28

0 25 50 75 100

Europe

Befo

199

199

200

76

9

5

23

1

4 Australia

Other English-speaking countries

Europe

Northeast Asia

Southeast Asia

Middle East andNorth Africa

Rest of world

Table 3

Labor does better among those born outside Australia

ALP primary vote by country of birth, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

Born in Australia 39 46 35 38 36 43

Born outside Australia 49 50 41 48 46 52

Born in a non-English-speaking country 53 57 46 45 51 60

Total 41 47 36 38 39 45



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ouside Ausralia. Wha is clear is ha suppor is high among voers rom

Souheas Asian backgrounds and Middle Easern backgroundswo large and

growing demographics (see able 4).

Tere are no currenly enough AES daa on he voing paterns o immigrans

rom Norheas Asia. Bu oher research suggess ha suppor or he ALP is

lower in his group and his group swings more beween elecions.

Te sronges swings o he ALP in 2007 were in areas wih litle ehnic diversiy.

In conras, heavily muliculural areas swung agains he ALP by double digis

in 2010. Tis means ehnic areas have been a relaive weak spo or wo elecions

in a row, ailing o swing srongly las ime and hen swinging heavily agains he

ALP his ime. More daa are needed, hough, o deermine i his is because o an

underlying shi o suppor among migrans or nonmigrans or boh in hese areas.

Age

A amiliar age patern is eviden in Ausralian voing. Older voers are more likely

o suppor he Liberal-Naional Coaliion han he Labor Pary. As observed in

many oher counries, younger voers are more likely o suppor paries o he le

(Labor Pary, Greens) han paries o he righ (Liberal-Naional Pary Coaliion).Ausralia is one o he ew developed democracies wih compulsory voing, so

his high level o suppor is no ose o any noiceable degree by lower urnou

among young voers.

Table 4

Labor does particularly well among voters of Southeast Asian origin

ALP primary vote, elections 1990-2007, by ethnic background*

Background ALP primary

Born in Australia, both parents born in Australia 39

Another English-speaking country 40

Europe 49

Southeast Asia 59

Middle East 53

*Does not include the 2001 election.



16/31


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Labor, relaively speaking, han he Depression generaion was a approximaely

he same age. In 1990 he proporion o he Depression generaion voing or

Labor as heir rs preerence was 4 percen lower han or all voers. In 2007 sup-

por among he baby boomers or Labor was on par wih suppor rom all voers

boh around 45 percen (see ables 6 and 7).

In comparison, Generaion X voers in 2007 had a similar level o primary suppor

or he ALP (0.4 percenage poins more han all voers) as did baby boomers in

1990 (1.8 poins more han all voers). Bu as mos o he los primary voe rom

Generaion X voers has gone o he Greens raher han he Coaliion, here has

been much less impac on he wo-pary preerred gure.

Table 6

The Depression generation has the lowest primary support for Labor

ALP primary vote by generation, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

World War I generation 42 43 NA NA NA NA

Depression generation 37 44 31 35 35 43

Baby boomers 43 51 39 39 42 46

Generation X NA 52 36 49 39 46

Millennial generation NA NA NA NA 36 50

Total 41 47 36 41 39 45


Table 7

Generation X and the Millennial generation have the highest two-party

preferred vote for Labor

ALP two-party preferred vote by generation, 1990-2007

1996 1998 2004 2007

World War I generation . . NA NA NA NA

Depression generation . . 34 42 41 48

Baby boomers . . 45 49 50 55Generation X . . 47 60 50 59

Millennial generation . . NA NA 53 59

Total . . 42 49 48 54



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I has been argued ha a he 2010 elecion he ALP los much o he increase in

suppor rom baby boomers ha i had gained a he 2007 elecion because he

global nancial crisis had desroyed much o heir superannuaion (reiremen)

savings.4 Published Newspolldaa do no provide sucien deail so we will have

o wai or AES daa o es ha claim.

Religion

In line wih he changing ehnic composiion in Ausralia,

and a general secularizaion, he proporion o he popula-

ion belonging o Chrisian religions is declining. Mos o

he decline is in Proesan religions while he proporion o

Caholics is declining much more slowly.

Te number o Ausralians belonging o non-Chrisianreligions is increasing bu he overall proporions remain

very low: Fewer han 1 in 15 Ausralians idenied wih a

non-Chrisian religion in 2006. Te ases growing reli-

gious group is hose proessing no religion. Beween 1991

and 2006, he proporion o Ausralians wih no religion

increased by hal, rising rom 14 percen o he populaion o

21 percen (see Figure 4).

Te changes in religion over ime have a clear impac on

voing paterns. On he primary voe, Labor does beter on

average among Caholic voers, voers rom Orhodox and

non-Chrisian religions, and among voers wih no religion.

Labor has consisenly done poorly among Proesan voers.

While evangelical religions may be growing, his is largely a

he expense o esablished Proesan religions, so his is unlikely o mean much

urher erosion o Labor suppor. A posiive rend or Labor and oher progressive

paries is he growh o oher religions and voers wih no religion. In he case o

voers wih no religion in paricular, nearly a quarer will give heir primary voe

o he Greens beore preerencing Labor ahead o he Coaliion (see able 8).

Figure 4

The proportion of those with no relig

is growing in Australia

Religious affiliation of Australians, 1991-200

Source: Australian Bureau o Statistics, Census data.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

No religion

Other religion

Protestant

Catholic

31 30 30

4945 43

67 9

1418 18

1991 1996 2001 2


19/31


Looking a requency o religious atendance, i can be clearly seen ha Labor

only does poorly among he very observanhose atending religious services

a leas once a week. Indeed, Labor primary suppor among hose who atend a

leas once a monh is usually higher han among hose who never atend. Tis is

urher evidence ha Labor is no grealy hreaened by any increase in religious

aciviy (see able 9).

Table 8

Those with no religion strongly support Labor

Primary and two-party preferred vote for Labor, by religion, 1990-2007

Primary 1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

Catholic 48 57 40 46 41 48

Protestant 38 41 29 34 32 40

Other 37 44 40 46 43 48

No religion 45 53 46 45 44 50

Total 41 47 36 41 39 45

Two-party preferred

Catholic 45 54 47 55

Protestant 34 41 37 46

Other 48 55 51 57

No religion 56 59 62 65

Total 42 50 47 54


Table 9

The most observant are least supportive of Labor

Primary vote for Labor, by frequency of religious attendance, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

At least once a week 32 40 30 34 33 38

At least once a month 38 44 32 44 42 47

At least once a year 40 43 36 36 36 47

Less than once a year 41 47 35 43 40 46

Never 48 53 42 43 40 47



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Occupation

Te Ausralian Labor Pary was ounded as a workers pary, wih srong ies o

he rade union movemen and very high levels o suppor among men working

in manual occupaions in radiional indusries. Te workorce in Ausralia has

undergone remendous change over he las 20 years. Skilled and semiskilledjobs in radiional indusries have been declining as a share o oal employmen.

Proessional jobs, and o a lesser exen managerial jobs, have been growing. Te

larges caegory o employmen coninues o be service-secor jobs, in clerical,

sales, and communiy- and personal-service occupaions (see Figure 5).

Labor coninues o do well among echnical and rades workers and among oher

blue-collar workers (machinery operaors, drivers, and laborers). Over he las

20 years, Labor suppor among proessional workers has grown. Bu as he gap

beween he primary voe gure and he wo-pary preerred gure shows, Labor

mus increasingly compee wih he Greens or proessional workers rs preer-ence. Labor does very poorly among managerial workers.

Alhough hey are growing as

a proporion o he workorce,

so oo is Labors share o he

managerial voe. While i is

unsurprising ha Labor does

poorly among managerial

workers, here is probably

room or improvemen among

service-secor workers. Many

service-secor workers are

women working par ime

and looking o balance work

and amily responsibiliies. I

Labor, hrough is progressive

policies relaing o child care,

paid parenal leave, and early

child educaion, can draw hissegmen o workers ino a

progressive coaliion, is posi-

ion will be even sronger (see

able 10).

Figure 5

Blue-collar workers are declining and professionals are increasing

in Australia

Occupational categories as a proportion of the civilian population aged 15 and

As proportion of the civilian population

7 6 6 7 8 8 8

9 8 911 11 12

13

10 9 99 9

910

1412 12

12 1111

11

22

2123 20 21

2121

0

25

50

75

1990 2004

Service-sector workers

Blue collar as proportion of civilian populationTrades and techs as proportion of civilian population

Professionals as percent of civilian population

Managerial workers as proportion of c ivilian population

Source: Australian Bureau o Statistics, Quarterly Labour Force data, period matched to each election 1990-2010.


21/31


Labors suppor among proes-

sional workers and blue-collar

workers draws on dieren

moivaions. Higher-income

and higher-educaion proes-

sionals who hold progressive

views are inclined o suppor

Labor or oher le-wing paries

on an ideological basis. Blue-

collar workers and low-income

earners may no have he same

rm ideological views bu

noneheless express srong

suppor or Labor because heybelieve Labor is he bes pary

o proec heir living sandards.

Tis is bes demonsraed by he ollowing chars rom he Chiey Research Cenres

Progressive Ausralia Survey (see Figures 6, 7, and 8).

Table 10

Labor does best among blue collar workers

Primary and two-party preferred vote for Labor, by occupation, 1990-2007

1990 1993 1996 1998 2004 2007

ALP primary vote

Manager 24 28 23 26 27 28

Professional 36 42 39 34 39 43

Trades or technician 39 54 38 46 44 53

Blue collar 50 60 38 49 49 59

Service worker 44 50 37 41 36 47

ALP two-party preferred vote

Manager 26 29 31 33

Professional 47 46 52 58

Trades or technician 44 60 54 59

Blue collar 45 58 51 67

Service worker 42 47 44 55


5

3

3

30

15

13

55

73

76

1

0% 25% 50% 75%

University qualification

Trade or other

nonuniversity qualification

High school

Very left Somewhat left Neither left nor right Somewhat right Very ri

Figure 6

The most educated are the most ideological

Ideological position by education level

Question: In politics, people talk about the left and the right. Would you describe yourself as.

Source: Chifey Research Centre, Progressive Australia Survey (2010).


22/31


Geography

Governmen in Ausralia

goes o he pary ha can

command a majoriy in he

House o Represenaives. Aso 2010, here are 150 seas in

he House o Represenaives.

Following he 2010 ederal

elecion, Labor holds 72

seas. Te Ausralian Greens

won a sea in he House o

Represenaives or he rs

ime. Te Coaliion, com-

prising he Liberal Pary o

Ausralia and he NaionalPary o Ausralia, won 73 seas.

A Naional Pary member

siting ouside he Coaliion

also won a sea. In addiion,

our independens won seas.

Following inense negoia-

ions, Labor was able o secure

he suppor o he Ausralian

Greens MP and hree o he

our independens, enabling i

o coninue in oce.

Ausralia is a ederaion

comprising six saes and

wo erriories. Te elecor-

aes are divided among he

saes and erriories on he

basis o populaion, wih he

proviso ha no sae may haveewer han ve seas. Over

he las 20 years, populaion

growh has seen he number

o seas held by he sun-

bel resource-rich saes o

0% 25% 50% 75%

University qualification

Trade or other

nonuniversity qualification

High school

18

20

28

74

72

62

Society should make sure people have a decent standard of living, irrespective of whether thwork or not.

Society should expect people to work hard, but ensure they have a decent wage and enougincome to live a good life if they do.

Society should expect people to work hard, but if employers are forced to pay wages abovethe market rate then that could just end up pricing some people out of a job.

Figure 7

Those with less education are more likely to support a decent stan

of living for all

Views on societys role in standard of living by education level

Question: Which of the following is closest to your view about societys expectations of people


Society should make sure people have a decent standard of living, irrespective of whether thwork or not.

Society should expect people to work hard, but ensure they have a decent wage and enougincome to live a good life if they do.

Society should expect people to work hard, but if employers are forced to pay wages abovethe market rate then that could just end up pricing some people out of a job.

11

13

25

35

83

76

68

57

0% 25% 50% 75%

More than $120,000

$70,000-$119,000

$30,000-$69,999

Less than $30,000

Figure 8

Those with less income are more likely to support a decent standaof living for all

Views on societys role in standard of living by income level

Question: Which of the following is closest to your view about societys expectations of people



23/31


Queensland and Wesern Ausralia grow a he expense o

he more esablished saes in he souheas (Souh Ausralia,

Vicoria, and New Souh Wales). An addiional sea has been

added o Queensland a he 1996, 1998, 2004, 2007, and

2010 elecions. Wesern Ausralia added one addiional sea

in ha ime.

A he 1990 ederal elecion, voers in Vicoria and Souh

Ausralia punished he Labor Pary or he collapse o sae

nancial asses ha had occurred under sae Labor govern-

mens. Since hen, suppor or Labor in hese saes has grown,

and ogeher wih asmania, hese saes have regularly given

a majoriy o he wo-pary preerred voe and a majoriy o

House o Represenaives seas o Labor. Suppor in New

Souh Wales, he larges sae, was slower o increase bu Labor

won he wo-pary preerred voe and he majoriy o he seasin 2007 and 2010. Alhough Labor had done quie well in

Wesern Ausralia in 1990 and 1993, in 2007 Labor did no win

a majoriy o voes or seas here despie winning he elecion

overall. In Queensland, Labor won a majoriy o he wo-pary

preerred voe and a majoriy o seas in 2007, under he leader-

ship o Queenslander Kevin Rudd, bu did much more poorly in he 2010 elecion,

losing six seas. In he shor erm, Labors very srong perormance in he souhern

saes assiss is eors o win ederal elecions, bu unless Federal Labors relaively

poor perormance in Queensland and Wesern Ausralia improves, i will become

increasingly hard o win a majoriy o seas overall (see Figure 9).

Te Ausralian Elecoral Commission classies seas ino our geographic caego-

ries: inner meropolian, ouer meropolian, provincial, and rural:

Inner meropolianlocaed in a capial ciy and comprising well-esablished,

buil-up suburbs Ouer meropolianlocaed in capial ciies and conaining areas o more

recen urban expansion

Provincialdivisions wih a majoriy o enrollmen in major provincial ciies Ruraldivisions wihou a majoriy o enrollmen in major provincial ciies

A ederal elecions, Labor ends o perorm very well in inner meropolian

seas and very poorly in rural seas. Tis changes litle beween elecions ha

Labor wins and elecions ha i loses. Ouer meropolian seas, in he less-

Figure 9

Labor has fared poorly in the fast-

growing Queensland state

Number of House of Representatives seats in

Queensland won by Labor and others, 1990-

Source: Australian Electoral Commission.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007

Qld seats won by others

Qld seats won by ALP


24/31


esablished suburbs, are he larges caegory and are where elecions are usually

won or los. Labor will also end o win a majoriy o he provincial seas when

i wins an elecion overall.

Despie he decline in he proporion o he populaion living ouside he me-

ropolian areas, he AEC has mainained he balance beween meropolian andnonmeropolian seas over he las 20 years. Tis is due parly o he consiu-

ional consrains requiring each sae and erriory o have a cerain number o

seas, and parly due o he process used by he Elecoral Commission o draw

elecoral boundaries. Tis involves gradually drawing high-growh suburban areas

ino low-growh rural or provincial seas o mainain balance beween seas. I is

hereore unlikely ha Labor will noiceably bene rom he increase in voers

living in meropolian areas.

In is inner meropolian areas o srengh, Labor aces a growing compeiion

rom he Greens or progressive voes. A he 2010 elecion, he ALP los he seao Melbourne o he Greens or he rs ime in 100 years. A he same elecion,

he ALP los he sea o Dennison, based on he asmanian capial Hobar, o

Green-urned-independen Andrew Wilkie. Wha hese seas have in common

are large numbers o young people, proessional workers, and voers wih secular

oulooks. Tese voers are solidly progressive bu are willing o look o paries

oher han Labor o represen hem. Labor aces he challenge o responding o

he Greens atemps o capure hese voers while a he same ime needing o

draw in oher voing segmens i i is o build a progressive majoriy.

The rising Green vote

One o he mos dramaic shis in voing during he 2010 campaign was oward

he Greens. For he rs ime in a ederal campaign, he Greens were successul in

ataining a sea in he lower house and represenaion in he Senae rom each sae

jurisdicion. Te rise o he Green voe presens an exisenial challenge or a social-

democraic pary like he Ausralian Labor Pary. For he rs ime in he parys

120-year exisence, Labor now aces a major elecoral challenge o is le, raher han

jus being in compeiion wih he conservaive orces o is righ (see Figure 10).

Tis was paricularly pronounced in he inner-ciy, urban elecoraes, which have

radiionally housed he more progressive endency wihin he ALP. Tese inner-

ciy voers have in greaer numbers han ever beore aken o he Green Pary


25/31


message, including on acion

on climae change, in suppor

o asylum seeker righs, and in

relaion o he cluser o issues

ha could be broadly ermed

posmaerial in Ausraliaslarge meropolian ceners.

Tis is reeced in par by he

social composiion o his

emerging social base or he

Green Pary.

Te problem or Labor is

double edged. While Labor

loses voes o a pary ha

posiions isel o he le onclimae change and environ-

men, i is also elecorally

wedged o he righ on he

issue o asylum seekers which

remains a poen and divisive issue in Ausralian poliics. In he 2010 elecion,

Labor los voers o he Greens on he basis o environmenal issues as well as con-

cerns over asylum seekers while also losing voes o he Coaliion on he asylum

seeker issuebu rom he righ. Clearly Labors abiliy o nd bridge issues ino

hese wo diverse consiuencies will in large par deermine o wha exen Labor

is able o grow is declining base o voers.

Figure 10

Greens have been increasing their share of first-preference votes

Vote share as a percentage of total first-preference votes, 1990-2010

Source: Australian Electoral Commission.

39

45

39

40

38 38

4343

44

47

40

43

47

42

0 02 2 5

7

8

17

1012

18

14

8

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007

ALP Liberal-National Coalition Greens Others


26/31


The new progressive coalition

In Ausralian poliics, a he naional level in any even, he challenge or Labor is no

how o build a progressive coaliion bu how o lead i. Over he pas 20 years, key

segmens have o he elecorae have grown, o he bene o he Labor voe: single,

separaed, and divorced women; Generaion X and Millennial generaion voers;

voers belonging o non-Chrisian religions; secular voers; and voers rom proes-

sional backgrounds.

Despie he swing agains he ALP a he 2010 elecion, none o hese segmensmoved sharply o he conservaive Coaliion. While ALP suered very subsanial

swings in 2010 in some o he areas lised as being posiive or he pary, such as he

heavily muliculural suburbs, he ALP voe was sill ar above he naional average in

mos o hese places. Te ALP did notgenerally lose hose areas bu in many o hem

is majoriies were sharply reduced.

Moreover, ehnic voers appear o be a considerably weaker predicor o ALP voes

han hree years ago. Muliculural suburbs sill end o record a higher-han-average

ALP voe, bu he relaionship is no as srong or as saisically signican in 2010 as

i was in 2007. In addiion, boh amilies wih children and several caegories o blue-

collar workers were key drivers o he 2007 swing, bu appeared o bear no relaion-

ship o he swing in 2010.

Oher pars o he ALP (and conservaive) base appear o have held across he wo

elecions. Afuen areas are jus as conservaive as hey were in 2007 and areas wih

large numbers o nonradiional households remain skewed o he le. While some

o he relaionships are weaker han beore, he demographic predicors o he ALP

primary voe in 2010 remain broadly similar o he previous elecion.

Wha hese resuls ell demographers and psephologiss (poliical scieniss who sudy

elecion daa) is ha Labors once-dominan posiion on he le o Ausralian poliics is

now being challenged rom he le by he Green Pary and rom he righ by conser-

vaives who are able o exploi voer dissaisacion wih he managemen o he asylum

seeker issue, and who have ears abou he naional economic credenials o Labor.


27/31


Conclusion

Ausralian Labor emerges rom he 2010 elecion cycle in a conradicory posi-

ion: On he one hand i has suered elecoral deea in Vicoria and Wesern

Ausralia and a near miss in he mos recen ederal elecion, bu on he oher

hand is vision and values are largely armed by an Ausralian public suspicious

o a conservaive agenda in healh, educaion, and in he workplace.

In he mos recen ederal elecion, Labors elecoral woes did no arise because

o is response o he global recession bu raher because o Labors perceivedinabiliy o deliver on he nex generaion o social-democraic challenges such as

designing and implemening an eecive marke on carbon and having eecive

policies o manage he movemen o people across naional borders.

Labors social-democraic vision is now also coming under susained elecoral

assaul rom a challenger posiioning isel o he le in he Green Pary, bu

ironically hey are largely prosecuing heir case agains Labor by atemping o

appear more social democraic han heir older rival. An ecological and posma-

erial agenda is insucien o weaken Labors hold on he progressive elecorae

in Ausralia and i is only by atemping o ank Labor on healh and educaion,

on workplace righs, and oher social-democraic issues ha he Green Pary can

hope o break sucien suppor away rom Labor. Some successes in breaking

rade unions rom Labors suppor base will embolden he Green Pary, ye his

pary may well have peaked or now elecorally.

Labor now aces signican elecoral challenges in Ausralia. Te cycle a he

sae level is now urning, wih long-erm Labor governmens being removed by

voers who believe governmens should periodically change, regardless o heir

success or oherwise.

A he naional level, he pary mus now balance being in a minoriy governmen

wih he urgen need o aggressively push a clear reorm agenda. Wihou conrol

o he Lower House o Parliamen, his will remain dicul hroughou he curren

erm. In his conex, ensuring clear diereniaion rom he Green Pary is essenial.


28/31


For Ausralian Labor, he challenge is similar o he experience o oher social-

democraic movemens around he world. Tere is an urgen need o ground

Labors curren sory in a much deeper and longer-erm narraive abou he role

o Labor in shaping he Ausralian naion and is coninuing role in being he only

pary ha can realisically bring abou change and reorm in key policy areas.

Tis will assis Labor in closing o on he emerging hrea o he le rom he

Green Pary by ully exploiing is base social-democraic advanage. Labor

should be able o ariculae an agenda ha combines policies or a growing and

air economy, wih real improvemens and invesmens in educaion, healh, and

super-as broadband hrough a Naional Broadband Nework.

I will also have o resore aih wih is base and ake immediae acion o pu a

price on carbon and ake acion on climae change. Acion on his issue remains

a ouchsone or many progressive Ausralians who had previously suppored he

pary in 2007.

A poenially powerul new se o issues exis or Labor as a consequence o

managing Ausralia hrough he global recession eecively. Te majoriy o voers

who remain suscepible o he conservaive manra o low deb and no wase are

also exposed o coninuing high living coss and are ime poor, working longer

and harder o balance heir own amily budges. Tese issues inersec across he

posmaerial/maerial divide where Labor is poenially able o ell a sronger nar-

raive abou is reorm credenials and is vision o airness and equiy. Te work

already compleed on Ausralias new Paid Parenal Leave scheme indicaes here

remains srong poenial o develop hese issues urher.

All o hese issues will assis Labor o pull back ogeher is winning elecoral coali-

ion. Ausralian Labor has always succeeded when i unied wo social consiu-

encies ino a single elecoral baseworking amilies in he ouer suburbs, wih

progressives in he ciies.


29/31


30/31


About the authors

Te Chiey Research Cenre is commited o he advancemen o public policy

debae and progressive hinking in Ausralia. Te Chiey Research Cenre aims

o provide a srong oundaion or debae and pracical policymaking. We seek

o provide he commenary and analysis ha can assis governmen, he LaborPary, and he progressive communiy o respond o he issues o oday in new

and creaive ways.


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reclaiming progressive austraila: demographic change and progressive political strategy in australia

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