recent world grain market trends opportunities for mexico michel ferret franceagrimer, paris 10/11...
TRANSCRIPT
Recent world grain market trendsOpportunities for Mexico
Michel FERRETFranceAgriMer, Paris
10/11 April 2013
Part I : Recent trends
Reminder : « Financialisation » of commodities markets + Price explosion 2007/08 (not addressed here)
Global wheat production vs corn production : and the winner is … cornImpact of the US Farm Bill 1996
No visible impact of GMO’s on corn yield
Major shifts in grain acreage in the USA and Latin America
Competitors of the USA increase their market share in grain exports
A new way of supporting farmers’s incomes : biofuel policies
World prices architecture, as reflected by Chicago (CME) quotations : Corn is the market driver ….but beware of ….
China’s overwhelming part in oilseeds imports : a serious threat to the stability of the grain price architecture
Inversion of the Corn / SRW price relationship : a new situation
Emergence of Black sea producers : a welcome contribution to the world supply situation (wheat, barley, corn) but a major instability factor
Main changes
Global corn and wheat production. Difference 2012 : 195 million tons (Mt)
430
480
530
580
630
680
730
780
830
880
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
Mt
Wheat
Corn
Linéaire(Corn)
Linéaire(Wheat)
+
• IGC projections for 2017: Corn 981 Mt, wheat 731 Mt. Difference : 250 Mt
USA: Area devoted to corn, soybeans and wheat. Impact of the 1996 Farm Bill
Source: USDA /NASS/Prospective Planting Report 28/03/2013
Monde
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1993/9
4
1995/9
6
1997/9
8
1999/0
0
2001/0
2
2003/0
4
2005/0
6
2007/0
8
2009/1
0
2011/1
2
Corn Wheat Soybeans
7,74
3,1
2,66
0,0
0,7
1,4
2,1
2,8
3,5
4,2
4,9
5,6
6,3
7,0
7,7
8,4
9,1
9,8
10,5
19
93
/94
19
95
/96
19
97
/98
19
99
/00
20
01
/02
20
03
/04
20
05
/06
20
07
/08
20
09
/10
20
11
/12
Corn Wheat Soybeans
Area (Mha) Yield (t/ha)
Corn yields in selected countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1960/6
1
1964/6
5
1968/6
9
1972/7
3
1976/7
7
1980/8
1
1984/8
5
1988/8
9
1992/9
3
1996/9
7
2000/0
1
2004/0
5
2008/0
9
2012/1
3
USA
France
Mexico
Corn yield trends (t/ha): no visible impact of GMO’s on corn yields
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1960/6
1
1964/6
5
1968/6
9
1972/7
3
1976/7
7
1980/8
1
1984/8
5
1988/8
9
1992/9
3
1996/9
7
2000/0
1
2004/0
5
2008/0
9
2012/1
3
USA
France
Mexico
Linéaire(USA)
Linéaire(France)
• USA : > 90 % of the corn area planted to GMO varieties ; France 0 %
USA: Corn production, use for ethanol, exports (Mt)
Source: USDA /NASS
252
228
256
300282
268
331307
333 316 314
274
20
55
90
125
160
195
230
265
300
335
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
Production
Exports
Use for ethanol
• Ethanol: ~ 40 % of corn use / EU: 3,6 % of wheat production, 5,5 % of corn production• US ethanol production: 64 % of world ethanol production
Global ethanol production (2011): 844 Mhl / 66 Mt
USA64%
Brazil25%
Canada2%
Thaïland1%Others
1%
China2%
EU5%
• For reference: Global biodiesel production: 19,4 Mt• EU: 9,6 Mt; USA: 3,2 Mt
USA: Corn supply and demand
1
3
1
2529 16
314274
369
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
(p
)
Carry-in Production
116 116140
127 114
37
39
25
119
3635
38
21
55
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
(p
)
Carry-out
Exports
Food use andseeds
Ethanol
Feed use
World corn prices: « ethanol impact »
90
140
190
240
290
340
Argentina Up river
USA Fob Gulf
Brazil fob Paranagua
Brazil: corn and soybeans area
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
Mha
597
Source : IGC
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
Mh
a
Corn Soybeans
Argentina: area devoted to cereals and oilseeds
0
1,5
3
4,5
6
7,5
9
10,5
12
13,5
15
2007/0
8
2008/0
9
2009/1
0
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
2012/1
3*
Others
Barley
Sorghum
Corn
Wheat
02468
1012141618202224
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13*
Others
Sunseed
Soybeans
Cereals Oilseeds
Source : USDA
• And the loser is: … wheat
Ukraine: a newcomer, now among the 4 top corn exporters! (Mt)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
1999/0
0
2011/1
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
2008/0
9
2009/1
0
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
2012/1
3
Wheat Corn Barley
Source : IGC
Top world exporters, corn and soybeans
Source: USDA
5,07,09,0
11,0
13,015,017,019,021,023,0
25,027,029,031,033,035,0
37,039,041,043,0
20
00
/01
20
02
/03
20
04
/05
20
06
/07
20
08
/09
20
10
/11
20
12
/13
USA Brazil Argentina
Corn (Mt) Soybeans (Mt)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
20
00
/01
20
02
/03
20
04
/05
20
06
/07
20
08
/09
20
10
/11
20
12
/13
USA Brazil Argentina Ukraine
Structure of world soybean imports: a dangerous situation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
China EU Mex.
• Soybean imports by China: in 2012/13 63 % of the world imports ! • Priority given in China to the growing of corn• Growing Chinese interest in Canadian canola
USA: Corn, wheat and soybeans prices in Chicago ($/t)
Source: IGC
120
165
210
255
300
345
390
435
480
525
570
615
660
02
/07
/20
07
02
/10
/20
07
02
/01
/20
08
02
/04
/20
08
02
/07
/20
08
02
/10
/20
08
02
/01
/20
09
02
/04
/20
09
02
/07
/20
09
02
/10
/20
09
02
/01
/20
10
02
/04
/20
10
02
/07
/20
10
02
/10
/20
10
02
/01
/20
11
02
/04
/20
11
02
/07
/20
11
02
/10
/20
11
02
/01
/20
12
02
/04
/20
12
02
/07
/20
12
02
/10
/20
12
02
/01
/20
13
02
/04
/20
13
US Soybeans
US YC
US SRW
Part II : Opportunities for Mexico
2 examples
Opportunities for Mexican beer exports
Why?Beer production in Mexico expanding
Excellent image in Europe
How?Mexico-EU trade agreement negociations?
Global beer production (Mt)
-
10 000 000
20 000 000
30 000 000
40 000 000
50 000 000
60 000 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Allemagne
Brésil
Chine
Russie
Mexique
Etats-Unis
• China, Brazil and Mexico : the new driving force in beer production
Source : FAO
Opportunities for Mexican durum exports
Durum consumption increasing in the Maghreb countries
Mexico among the top 4 durum exporters
A new « grain landscape » in North America after the removal of the CWB’s marketing monopoly
USA : the « shale oil / gas rush » : a new paradigm, in many respects :World energy balance
Geopolitics
Durum wheat production!
Durum wheat consumption in Maghreb countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
Mt
Morocco
Tunisia
Algeria
Linéaire(Algeria)
Linéaire(Morocco)
Linéaire(Tunisia)
+
Source : IGC /FranceAgriMer
Mexico: Durum wheat production and exports (Mt)
2,1
1,1
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
Production Exports Linéaire (Exports)
• World market in durum wheat : ~7,5 Mt • Mexico’s market share : ~15 %• USA : ~10 % ; Canada : 45-55 %
Source : IGC
USA: Durum wheat production: North Dakota, the main producing state
Source : USDA - NASS, January 2013
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
1 00
0 t
US total
NorthDakota
Montana
California
Arizona
• North Dakota : 40-50 % of US durum wheat production
The « Bakken formation » (shale gas and oil)
• North Dakota’s Durum wheat area : located in the north-western corner of the State
• Trend : increasing . North Dakota is already the 2nd producer state in the USA, behind Texas (2 millions barrels/day), ahead of Alaska
Gas flaring in North Dakota
• Currently : 8 000 wells, potentially 40 000 ?• Will there still be room for durum production ?
Concerning grain markets : Dependency, yes, but…
Diversification of potential suppliers More competition, better procurement prices ?
Some interesting export opportunities
Conclusion:« Potencia alimentaria o impotencia dependiente ? »
