recent trends in india-pakistan...

Recent Trends in India-Pakistan Trade 2018-19

Nisha Taneja Samridhi Bimal Anmol Nagpal

ICRIER

Figure 1: Impact of Political Relations between India and Pakistan on Trade

Source: Updated from Taneja et al (2013), Normalizing India-Pakistan Trade. ICRIER Working Paper 267

Table 1: India's Trade with Pakistan (US$ million)

Year Exports

(X) Imports

(M) Trade Balance

(X-M) Total Trade

(X+M) Trade Balance Ratio

(X-M/X+M)*100

2003-04 287 58 229 345 66%

2004-05 521 95 426 616 69%

2005-06 689 180 510 869 59%

2006-07 1350 324 1026 1674 61%

2007-08 1951 288 1663 2239 74%

2008-09 1440 370 1070 1810 59%

2009-10 1573 276 1297 1849 70%

2010-11 2040 333 1707 2372 72%

2011-12 1542 398 1144 1939 59%

2012-13 2065 542 1523 2607 58%

2013-14 2274 427 1847 2701 68%

2014-15 1857 497 1360 2354 58%

2015-16 2171 441 1730 2612 66%

2016-17 1821 454 1367 2275 60%

2017-18 1924 489 1,435 2,413 59%

2018-19 2067 495 1572 2561 61%

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

Figure 2: India’s Trade with Pakistan (US$ billion)


2.24

1.81 1.85

2.37

1.94

2.61 2.70

2.35 2.61

2.28 2.41

2.56

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Total Trade (USD billion)

4

Table 2: Sector-wise Classification of India’s Exports to Pakistan (2018-19)

Sr. No.

Sector Description Exports (in USD

million) Share in Total

Exports

1 Live animals; animal products 17.1 0.8%

2 Vegetable products 143.8 6.9%

3 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats;animal or vegetable waxes

11.9 0.6%

4 Prepared foodstuffs;beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes

29.2 1.4%

5 Mineral products 26.6 1.3%

6 Products of the chemical or allied industries 765.3 37.0%

7 Plastics and articles thereof;rubber and articles thereof 167.8 8.1%

8

Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods,(other than silk-worm gut)

1.3 0.1%

9 Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal;cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw,of esparto or of other plaiting materials;basketware and wickerwork

0.1 0.0%

10 Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material;recovered (waste and scrap) paper or paperboard;paper and paperboard and articles

4.6 0.2%

11 Textiles and textile articles 688.7 33.3%

12

Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas,walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair

1.4 0.1%

13 Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products

7.7 0.4%

14 Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery

6.9 0.3%

15 Base metals and articles of base metal 71.1 3.4%

16

Machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

107.3 5.2%

17 Vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment

0.5 0.0%

18 Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments, and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments

4.7 0.2%

19 Arms and ammunition; parts and accessories 0 0.0%

20 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 10.4 0.5%

21 Works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 0.0 0.0%

Total 2066.4 100.0%


5

Table 3: India’s Top 20 Exports to Pakistan at HS-2(2018-19)

HS Code Commodity description Exports

(US$ Million) Share of the

Product in Exports

52 Cotton. 550.3 27%

29 Organic Chemicals 457.7 22%

39 Plastic and articles thereof. 131.2 6%

32 Tanning or dyeing extracts; tannins and their deri. dyes, pigments and other colouring matter; paints and ver; putty and other mastics; inks.

114.5 6%

84 Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof.

94.9 5%

30 Pharmaceutical products 59.6 3%

72 Iron and steel 51.9 3%

54 Man-made filaments. 51.0 2%

38 Miscellaneous chemical products 50.3 2%

09 Coffee, Tea, Mate and Spices. 48.2 2%

55 Man-made staple fibres. 41.2 2%

40 RUBBER AND ARTICLES THEREOF. 36.6 2%

12 Oil seeds and olea. fruits; misc. grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder.

36.1 2%

33 Essential oils and resinoids; perfumery, cosmetic or toilet preparations.

35.7 2%

10 Cereals. 33.1 2%

28 Inorganic chemicals; organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals, of rare-earth metals, or radi. elem. or of isotopes.

23.6 1%

27 Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes.

23.1 1%

63 Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing and worn textile articles; rags

18.9 1%

34 Soap, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial waxes, prepared waxes, polishing or scouring prep.

18.4 1%

56 Wadding, felt and nonwovens; spacial yarns; twine, cordage, ropes and cables and articles thereof.

15.2 1%

Total 1891.4 92%


.

6

Table 4: India’s Top 20 Exports to Pakistan at HS-6 (2018-19)

HS Code Product description Exports

(US$ million) Share of the

Product in Exports

520100 Cotton, not carded or combed 332.9 16%

290243 P-xylene 199.5 10%

390210 Polypropylene 68.3 3%

520524 Sngl yrn of cmbd fbrs measurng<192.31 but >=125 dctx(>52 but <=80 mtrc no)

64.3 3%

320416 Reactive dys and preptns based thereon 48.5 2%

291736 Terephthalic acid and its salts 44.5 2%

520513 Sngl yrn of uncmbd fbrs measurng<232.56 but >=192.31 dctx(>43 but <=52 mtrc no)

39.9 2%

720232 Ferro-silico-manganese 36.1 2%

300220 Vaccines for human medicine 32.3 2%

330290 Other: mixtures of aromatic chemicals and essential oils as perfume base:

30.6 1%

520527 Sngl yrn of combd fbrs msrng betwn 83.33 and 106.38 dctx and 94 to 120 mtrc no.

29.4 1%

540720 Woven fabrics obtained from strip/the like 28.5 1%

844520 Textile spinning machines 28.3 1%

294200 Other organic compounds : cefadroxil and its salts, ibuprofane, nifedipine, ranitidine, danes salt of d(-) pheny

25.9 1%

520528 Sngl yrn of combd fbrs msrng <83.83 dctx and > 120 mtrc no.

25.7 1%

292142 Aniline derivatives and their salts 23.9 1%

90240 Other black tea (fermented) and other partly fermented tea :

21.7 1%

390110 Polyethylene hvng a spfc grvty below 0.94 21.6 1%

300490 Other medcne put up for retail sale 21.1 1%

290241 O-xylene 20.2 1%

Total 1143.4 55%


7

Table 5: Sector-wise Classification of India’s Imports from Pakistan (2018-19)

Sr. No. Sector Description Imports

(in USD million) Share in Total

Imports

1 Live animals; animal products 0.0 0.0%

2 Vegetable products 131.7 26.6%

3 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats;animal or vegetable waxes

0.0 0.0%

4 Prepared foodstuffs;beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes

4.3 0.9%

5 Mineral products 241.3 48.8%

6 Products of the chemical or allied industries 21.8 4.4%

7 Plastics and articles thereof;rubber and articles 17.2 3.5%

8 Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods

16.8 3.4%

9 Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal;cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw,of esparto or of other plaiting materials;basketware and wickerwork

0.0 0.0%

10 Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material;recovered (waste and scrap) paper or paperboard;paper and paperboard

0.6 0.1%

11 Textiles and textile articles 42.0 8.5%

12

Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas,walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers

0.2 0.0%

13 Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products

1.9 0.4%

14 Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery

0.3 0.1%

15 Base metals and articles of base metal 1.1 0.2%

16

Machinery and mechanical appliances;electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

4.8 1.0%

17 Vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment

0.0 0.0%

18

Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring,checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments, and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments;parts and accessories

9.5 1.9%

19 Arms and ammunition; parts and accessories 0.0 0.0%

20 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 1.4 0.3%

21 Works of art, collectors' pieces and antiques 0.0 0.0%

Total 494.8 100.0%


8

Table 6: India’s Top 20 Imports from Pakistan at HS-2 (2018-19)

HS Code Commodity description Imports


Product in Imports

27 Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes.

131.3 27%

8 Edible fruit and nuts; peel or citrus fruit or melons. 103.3 21%

25 Salt; sulphur; earths and stone; plastering materials, lime and cement.

92.8 19%

26 Ores, slag and ash. 17.2 3%

41 Raw hides and skins (other than furskins) and leather 16.3 3%

12 Oil seeds and olea. fruits; misc. grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder.

16.0 3%

52 Cotton. 15.4 3%

63 Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing and worn textile articles; rags

13.7 3%

28 Inorganic chemicals; organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals, of rare-earth metals, or radi. elem. or of isotopes.

13.4 3%

39 Plastic and articles thereof. 11.5 2%

90 Optical, photographic cinematographic measuring, checking precision, medical or surgical inst. and apparatus parts and accessories thereof;

9.5 2%

9 Coffee, tea, mate and spices. 8.6 2%

32 Tanning or dyeing extracts; tannins and their deri. dyes, pigments and other colouring matter; paints and ver; putty and other mastics; inks.

6.2 1%

40 Rubber and articles thereof. 5.7 1%

51 Wool, fine or coarse animal hair, horsehair yarn and woven fabric.

5.1 1%

84 Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof.

4.7 1%

62 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted.

3.4 1%

13 Lac; gums, resins and other vegetable saps and extracts. 3.1 1%

61 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or corcheted.

2.1 0.4%

17 Sugars and sugar confectionery. 1.7 0.4%

Total 481.0 97%


9

Table 7: India’s Top 20 Imports from Pakistan at HS-6 (2018-19)

HS Code Commodity Description Imports


Product in Imports

80410 Dates fresh or dried 101.2 20%

271012 Light oils and preparations: 66.3 13%

271019 Other petroleum oils and oils obtaind from bituminous minerals etc

64.1 13%

252329 Other portland cement 59.9 12%

252010 Gypsum; anhydrite 18.8 4%

260600 Aluminium ores and concentrates 16.6 3%

120740 Seasamum seeds w/n broken 14.5 3%

631090 Othr rags,scrp twne,cordge,rope etc 12.8 3%

283620 Disodium carbonate 10.4 2%

91099 Other : seed : 6.7 1%

901890 Othr instrmntsandapplncs of medical science 6.7 1%

320415 Vat dyes (incl those usable in that state as ppigmnts and preprations based thereon

6.1 1%

390769 Other: poly(ethylene terephthalate) 5.8 1%

400400 Waste,parings and scrap of rubr(besides hardrubr) and pwdr 9 grnls obtained therefrom

5.5 1%

410799 Other/hides/skins including sides 4.8 1%

521142 Denim of yarns of different colour of mxd cotn fabrics weighing>200 gsm

4.3 1%

251910 Natural magnesium carbonate(magnesite) 4.4 1%

252100 Limestne flux; limestone and othr calcareous stone used for manufacture of lime/cement

4.0 1%

250100 Salt (incl table salt and denatrd salt) and pure sodim chlrde w/n aqs soln sea wtr

3.8 1%

520931 Dyed plain weave cotton fabrics weghng more than 200 gm per sqm

3.8 1%

Total 420.6 85%


10

14%

68%

12%

6%

Exports

Raw Materials

Intermediate Goods

Consumer Goods

Capital Goods

42%

27%

28%

3%

Imports

Raw Materials

Intermediate Goods

Consumer Goods

Capital Goods

Figure 3: Product Composition of India’s Exports to and Imports from Pakistan

(2018)

Source: UN ITC-WITS database

Note: Product composition based on WTO Stage of Processing (SoP) categories

Table 8: India’s Trade Potential with Pakistan

Trade US $ Million

(Excluding Mineral Fuels) (1)

US $ Million (Mineral Fuels)

(2)

US $ Million (Including Mineral Fuels)

(3)=(1)+(2)

Export 24764.7 6816.5 31581.2

Import 5252.1 0.2 5252.3

Total Trade 30016.8 6816.7 36833.5

Source: Author’s own calculation using WITS Database Note: Potential products taken into consideration have Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) >1 for respective country.

11

Table 9: Top 10 Commodities with Export Potential at HS-6 (2018)

Note: HS 271012 and HS 271019 are not included in the calculation.

Source: Author’s own calculation using WITS Database

Table 10: Top 10 Commodities with Import Potential at HS-6 (2018)

HS Code Commodity description Import Potential

(US$ Million)

611090 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans 268.4

520812 Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or 193.2

100119 Cereals; wheat and meslin, durum 182.1

610510 Shirts; men's or boys', of cotton, 152.8

611595 Hosiery and footwear 111.4

950662 Balls; inflatable 106.4

611610 Gloves, mittens and mitts; knitted 96.7

420321 Clothing accessories; gloves 93.2

520532 Cotton yarn; (not sewing thread) 92.9

420329 Clothing accessories; gloves 87

Total of 10 Items 1384.3

Share in Total Import Potential 26%

Source: Author’s own calculation using WITS Database

HS Code Commodity description Export Potential

(US$ Million)

851712 Telephones for cellular networks 833.0

870321 Vehicles; with only spark-ignition 542.1

520100 Cotton; not carded or combed 538.3

90240 Tea, black; (fermented) 532.2

720839 Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils 465.9

390210 Propylene, other olefin polymers 465.5

300490 Medicaments; consisting of mixed 411.0

390110 Ethylene polymers; in primary forms 311.1

390120 Ethylene polymers; in primary forms 295.3

870322 Vehicles; with only spark-ignition 291.9

Total of 10 Items 4686.4

Share in Total Export Potential 19%

12

Table 11: India’s Informal Exports to Pakistan- Estimated Value (2012-13)

Products Value Share

(In Million $) (%)

Real Jewelry (Diamond, gold, precious stones, etc.) 910 23%

Textiles 780 20%

Machinery and Machine Parts 305 8%

Electronic Appliances 220 6%

Scraps 193 5%

Paper 190 5%

Chemicals 187 5%

Tyres 187 5%

Packaged Food Items 170 4%

Spices 160 4%

Pulses 156 4%

Consumer Durable Items 150 4%

Industrial Additives 133 3%

Pharmaceutical Products 83 2%

Jewelry (Artificial) 28 1%

Pan Leaves/Betel Leaves 26 1%

Alcohol 22 1%

Coconut Oil 20 1%

Tea 16 0%

Shaving Blades 15 0%

Fruits and Vegetables 12 0%

Pan Masala 8 0%

Tobacco Products 6 0%

Leather 5 0%

Auto Components 4 0%

Stone 3 0%

Furniture 2 0%

Aampapad 0.5 0%

Soda bottles 0.5 0%

Total Informal Exports from India to Pakistan 3992 100%

Source: Taneja, N. and Bimal, S. (2016), India’s Informal Trade with Pakistan, ICRIER Working Paper 327

13

Table 12: India’s Informal Imports from Pakistan- Estimated Value (2012-13)

Products Value Share

(In Million $) (%)

Textiles 350 49%

Dry Fruits 230 32%

Spices 75 10%

Cement 15 2%

Carpets 28 4%

Fruits and Vegetables 12 2%

Leather 9 1%

Electronic Goods (Chinese Cameras, ICs, etc) 1 0%

Leather chemicals 1 0%

Total India’s Informal Imports from Pakistan 721 100%

Source: Taneja, N. and Bimal, S. (2016), India’s Informal Trade with Pakistan, ICRIER Working Paper 327

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