RECENT TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN

CANADIAN SETTLEMENT

1976-1981

J.W. Simmons and L.S. Bourne

Major Report No. 23

Centre for Urban and Community Studies

University of Toronto

July 1984

ISSN: 0319-4620

ISBN: 0-7727-1240-9

Price: $4. 00

'l'i\Rf,g OP CONTENTS

SETTING THE SCENE

The National Demoqraphy

Economic Indicators

PROVINCIAL TRF.NOS

The nemoqraphy

The Provincial Economies

THE URBAN SYSTEM

The Urban Economy

CHANGES WITHIN METROPOLITAN AREAS

Within the Built-Up Area

The Urban Field

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX ~: ORBAN PLACES IN CANADA, 19Rl

3 3

12

12

17

22

33

39

39

47

50

55

56

PREFACE

In 1978 the (then) Federal Ministry of State for Urban Affairs

commissioned from the Centre for Urban and Comnrunity Studies an appraisal

of those recent settlement trends revealed in the 1976 Census and their

implications for public policy. The resultant study, published in this

series as Major Report No. 15 (Bourne and Simmons, 1979), has been widely

distributed and referenced. Thus, it seems both appropriate and timely to

update that study using the results of the 1981 Census.

A long-tenn grant to examine urban change in Canada during the 1970s,

awarded jointly to the Centre and INRS (Institut National de la Recherche

Scientifique) - Urbanisation, in Montreal by the Social Sciences and

Humanities Research Council of Canada, provided the necessary support.

This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Like its predecessor, this report outlines the components and

patterns of urban growth at four distinct spatial scales - national,

provincial, urban system and intra-metropolitan. The emphasis is

primarily on population growth and migration, with a secondary focus on

employrrent and labour force changes. More detailed analyses of economic,

social and political changes will be discussed in subsequent reports

forming part of the same SSHRCC study. Furthermore, this report is more

concerned with displaying patterns of change then it is with the

construction of fonnal models or elaborate theoretical explanations.

Those efforts will come at a later stage. Nor does the report explicitly

address policy implications although the data themselves raise numerous

policy questions. This is indeed a 'stripped-down' version of the earlier

report.

Special thanks should go to Jane Davies for her superb and extensive

cartographic work and to Sharon Bolt for her typing, editing and

word-processing skills.

L.S. Bourne

J.W. Simmons

June 1984

• • 4 .. · .•:t. . . . ..

SETTING THE SCENE

Population growth may be studied over a variety of time periods and at

different spatial scales. Each temporal or spatial scale will isolate different

growth processes. The temporal diirension for this study is the most recent

five-year census period, 1976-1981. It will, however, be useful on occasion to

place this period in context by looking at data for the entire decade or for a

longer post-war period (1951-81). Similarly it is valuable to trace briefly the

shorter term (annual) fluctuations which took place during that five-year span.

It is the variety and complexity of spatial patterns observed at various

scales that are the central concerns here. Nationally (Figure 1), the

de1TK>graphic processes shaping the nation's settlement geography have maintained

the same general trends as in the first half of the decade (Bourne and Simmons,

1979; Robinson, 1981). The national population growth rate for 1976-81

continued its long-term decline; the rate of 5.9 percent was significantly below

the level of 6.6 percent in the previous five-year period. Yet as the bottom

graph in Figure 1 indicates, the trend to an increase in the rate of decline has

been stabilized. The growth rates for the last two five-year periods are more

alike than those of any two sequential census periods since 1951.

The roost distinctive growth pattern during the 1970s occurred at the

provincial scale. At no point in the post-war period has there been such a

striking regional concentration of population and economic growth. Alberta and

B.C. prospered, while the rest of the country grew slowly or not at all. Yet,

by the end of the decade, annual data indicated that this sharp contrast was

muted if not disappearing. Variations in aggregate growth rates among urban

size groups, or between urban and rural areas remained relatively small. Within

metropolitan areas, the decline in population of the central city continued

(although at a reduced rate), reflecting the coincidence of two powerful forces:

changing family structures and a further geographic extension of the built-up

urban area.

This paper, then, reveals several new variations but no dramatic reversals

of settlement trends in Canada. Overall, the pattern of the late 1970s is much

like that of the previous period, but with some interesting and potentially

significant differences. In the following sections we undertake to evaluate and

-2-

20 POPULATION(MIL_LL~l~O~N~S~)....-~~----~~~~---~~~-,

10

CHANGE IN POPULATION (MILLIONS)

2

10

PERCENT GROWTH (5 YEAR PERIOD)

PERCENT CHANGE IN GROWTH RATE

-10

-20

-30+---~----~--------~-~----~----~~~----~--~--------i

19!51 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981

Figure 1: Canada: Aspects of Population Growth

3

qualify these trends, and to suggest what they imply for future urban

development and gr

cn 400 z 0 cn a:: LU 0.. 300 u. 0

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en z 0 en a:: w 0..

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100

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Births

Deaths

Percent Change in Population

Percent of Canadians moving interprovincially

"

· Net

1951 1

56 1

61 1

66 1

71 1

76

Figure 2: Components of Population Growth, 1951-1981

' !

i

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Natura I Increase (Percent)

1891-1901 ©........._ ?®\ © 1881-91

© 1861-71

Figure 3: Decade Growth Rates, 1851-1981

~ 1951-61

1851-61

-6-

1961 2

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0 1966-1971

~ CJ.......! --= 1971

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~ .....r=L.....! 2

1976-1981

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,s. '° ,s. ij) lj. fp 't ~ a;,. ~ ~ ij)

Figure 4: The Changing Age Distribution, 1961-1981

7

stabilize during the 1970s, the economy first stuttered and then, at the end of

the decade, fell into a major recession.

The very rapid growth in employment over the decade (33.7 per cent) was

still not sufficient to match the expansion of the labour force (35.9 per cent)

during this period. The bulge in the age-structure of the Canadian population,

created by the high fertility rates of the earlier post-war period, generated a

surge of entrants into the labour force. Between 1976 and 1981 the nation's

overall labour force grew by 15.9 per cent, more rapidly than that of any of

Canada's OECD trading partners (Economic Council of Canada, 1981, 13).

Figure 5 illustrates the year-by-year changes in Canada's labour market

over the 15 years from 1966 to 1982. On the supply side there has been a

regular increase in the population of working age, averaging over 2 per cent per

year since 1966 but declining from a level of almost 3 per cent to the present

1.5 per cent. On the demand side the growth in employment has been much more

erratic, averaging 2.4 per cent per year, but varying from a high of 6 per cent

(1972-73) to a low of -3.8 per cent (1981-82). This temporal variation

primarily reflects the intensity of perturbations in the business cycle,

although the magnitude of the recent recession is striking.

At the national level the difference between the size of the working

population and the number of workers employed is absorbed by changes in the

labour force participation rate and the rate of unemployment. The participation

rate rose from 58.1 per cent in 1971 to 61.l per cent in 1976 and to 64.7 per

cent in 1981, and is still increasing. This is due largely to the expanded role

of women in the job market (a concomitant of the decline in fertility levels).

On average, the level of participation has increased by 0.8 per cent annually,

equivalent to one-quarter of the increase in the size of labour force. Yet the

temporal pattern of this increase is closely linked to the growth rate of the

economy, accounting for almost half of the peak growth in 1972-73. The overall

employnent rate, in contrast, has declined by an annual average of 0.5 per cent

(only 0.25 per cent before the last year) and varies more widely over time.

Changes in the participation rate tend to lag the shift in the level of

employuent or participation rate, or both may pick up the slack in any given

year.

The impressive change in the role of women in the market economy may be the

15

10

~ i' 0 ~ \\ /-..._........_ I ~ 5 \ / " II "'- ~' \\ / /\ \ i v/ " I 0 " .... (.9 10L ~ \/

1966 1971

-5

Figure 5: Indicators of Economic Growth, 1966-1982

a) The Economy

I 00

A Real GNP. I

"'--- \ I / Employment /j Output/ A '-\ Worker

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4

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a.. - 1966 c: Q.) u _, ... Q.)

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Figure 5: Indicators of Economic Growth, 1966-19Si

b) The Labour Force

Population > 15yrs. Participation Rate Employment Rate

1981\ \ ~ / 1 Employment

\ \V I

' I Employment Rate \ / \ I \ I v

I

"° I

10

major social phenomenon of the 1970s. Women now occupy almost one million more

jobs than their participation rate in 1971 would suggest; and this out-of-home

activity has helped to create other jobs, particularly in the service sector

(e.g. day care). The achievement of the economy in accommodating this degree of

participation, and more generally of social change, deserves more recognition

than is usually given. As is noted in later sections this phenomenon has

important implications for the social fabric, form and service requirements of

urban areas.

The overall pattern of economic growth during the 1970s is sharply

differentiated by sector (Figure 6; see Hooper et al., 1983 for a more detailed

discussion). The most rapid growth occurred in the "non-basic" activities and

services - activities that tend to be spatially dispersed and, to some degree,

are shared by every urban place. Except for mining, which largely reflects the

expansion of the energy sector, those sectors conventionally defined as

production activities - and thus the economic base of a community - have grown

much more slowly. This apparent shift from basic to non-basic employment

continues a long-term pattern which embodies the impacts of those technological

innovations and social changes that have affected every developed nation. The

contrast is made more explicit when the sectors are grouped into basic

(Forestry, Mining, Manufacturing) and non-basic (Trade, Commercial Services and

Finance) categories. Employment in the former grew by 12.6 per cent while the

latter grew by 51.9 per cent.

The three basic activities that are included on Figure 6 - Forestry,

Mining, and Manufacturing (agriculture is excluded because most reporting units

have less than 20 employees) - show divergent growth trends. Mining (including

fossil fuels) has grown while the other two have declined relative to the

national economy. This divergence in growth is attributable to the openness of

the Canadian economy to imports and exports, and to changes in international

market conditions. As world commodity prices have shifted, and as alternative

sources for the production of basic commodities have become more competitive,

the level and value of Canadian production of gold, wheat, or airplanes, for

example, changes rapidly. If these indices were further disaggregated to show

the production of particular products, even more substantial fluctuations would

appear. If, as has been previously argued (Siml1'0ns, 1979), the economies of

en Q.I u "O c

-c Q.I

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320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

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-11-

. "· M i'\

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Finance

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~~Industrial Composite

~("'Transportation

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' ·~. I \I "\ ~ ·"""...v if'-·I\. ·./' '/\ ( f \. / '\(·/ Y,..v~ r\

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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Years

Figure 6: Employment Indices, Canada, 1970-1981

12

many Canadian cities are highly specialized in the production of a single

primary or secondary product, then considerable spatial variation and temporal

fluctuation in urban growth rates must result. In fact, however, much of the

spatial variation in economic growth is not attributable to basic employment

growth directly, but rather to the impact of expanded headquarters activities

and provincial government expenditures (due, for example, to energy revenues).

The petroleum industry employs relatively few people directly, but it generates

enormous revenue flows for local economies and governments.

PROVINCIAL TRENDS

The ioost striking spatial change in the seventies has been the astonishing

concentration of growth in the West, particularly in Alberta. Within a five

year period the price of erergy increased by an order of magnitude. Revenues to

producers and to governments, capital expenditures on exploration, development

and social services, increased in proportion. Alberta's economy simply exploded

(B.C. and Saskatchewan also shared in the benefits). In contrast, economic

growth in other provinces began to wind down in the last half of the decade.

Overall manufacturing activity declined; and the demand for non-energy resources

grew erratically. By 1980 Alberta and B.C. were the only growing regions in the

country: attracting migrants from every other province. By 1983, however,

growth (or non-growth) was again more widespread.

Table 1 provides a context for interpreting growth rates in the 1976-81

period. More than half of Canada's population growth took place in Alberta and

B.C. These provinces attained a growth rate like that of the early 1950s but

with a much lower birth rate and a much higher rate of net migration. The other

provinces, in contrast, showed remark.ably little variation in growth rate: each

one suffered a modest level of net out-migration.

While the growth of population at the national level bears relatively

little relation to the rate of economic growth, the mechanism of internal

migration provides a closer link between the two processes at the provincial and

sub-provincial level.

The DemographJ..: Each source of population growth, as noted earlier, displays a

distinct spatial pattern (Figure 7). At times the processes are closely

13

TABLE 1

POPULATION GROWTH: CANADA AND THE PROVINCES

1951-1981

Growth rates (in %) 1981

(in n88s) 1951-56 1956-61 1961-66 1966-71 1971-76 1976-81 1951-81

Canada 24,343 11.5 11.3 9.7 7.8 6.6 5.8 73.8

Newf. 568 14.9 10.3 7.8 5.8 6.8 1.8 57.1

P .E. I. 123 0.9 5.3 3.7 2.9 5.9 3.6 24.5

N.S. 847 8.1 6.1 2.6 4.4 5.0 2.2 31.9

N.B. 696 7.5 7.8 3.2 2.9 6.7 2.8 35.0

Que. 6,438 14.1 13.6 9.9 4.3 3.4 3.3 58.7

Ont. 8,625 17.6 15.4 11.6 10. 7 7.3 4.4 87.6

Man. 1,026 9.5 8.4 4.5 2.6 3.4 0.5 32.0

Sask. 968 5.9 5.0 3.3 -3.0 -0.5 5.1 16.3

Alta. 2,238 19.5 18.6 9.8 11.3 12.9 21.8 138.1

B.C. 2,745 20.0 16.5 15.0 16.6 12.9 11.3 135.6

Territories 69 25.5 19.4 14.6 23.4 21.1 7 .o 174.5

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 1981

" 5-

5-

-5 -

5-

10-

5-

-14-

Net Immigration

Net lnterprovineial Migration

Natural Increase

Composite

15

correlated; at other times they appear to be largely independent of one another.

Together they cumulate to the observed pattern of population growth and decline.

On average the contribution of natural increase to population growth is

clearly the highest (4.6%), followed in turn by net immigration and net internal

migration. However, its importance in determining province-to-province

variations, and thus population redistribution, is the lowest by far (3.3%).

Over time this variance has declined as Newfoundland increasingly behaves,

demographically at least, like the rest of the country.

A large proportion of the overall decline in the rate of immigration

occurred in Ontario, where the contribution of this source of growth dropped

from almost five per cent in the earlier period to 1.6 per cent in the 1976-81

period. During this decade, the pattern of immigration largely reflected the

pattern of economic growth, and therefore resembles the net flow of internal

migrants.

Most of the observed variance in population growth is due to the

differential rates of net migration (Table 2) amounting to over 10 per cent of

the initial population in Alberta and minus four per cent in Manitoba - larger

in both cases than the level of natural increase. Yet the most distinctive

pattern in this time period is the combination of a very high rate in Alberta,

and relatively little variation elsewhere. Quebec - for example - and despite

the well-publicized exodus of Anglophones - lost only 2.3 per cent of its 1976

population in this fashion.

It is not the magnitudes of net migration that are so unusual, but the

dramatic shifts from previous patterns (and hence from our expectation of what

is right and 'normal'). From East to West, the Atlantic provinces have reverted

back to migration deficits with the rest of the country; the situations in

Quebec and Ontario have not changed greatly (the major shift for the latter

occurred in the previous time period). Manitoba continued to lose, but

Saskatchewan improved dramatically from a chronic large migration deficit; and

Alberta almost went off scale during this period. Growth in B.C., in contrast,

has remained remarkably stable since the 1950s, in part due to the stabilizing

influence of amenity-lead and retirement migrations.

One further point is worth noting here. The rate of net change, n:easuring

the impact of migration, has tended to increase over time, illustrating the

16

TABLE 2

NET INTERNAL MIGRATION: BY PROVINCE, 1956-1981

(% of Initial Population) 1956-6la 1961-19 66b l 966-197la 1971-19 76a

Newf. -1.1 -3.3 -3.1 -1.3

P .E. I. -1.0 -2.9 -0.6 2.3

N.S. -2.2 -3.7 -1.0 0.7

N.B. -LO -4.3 -1.0 1.5

Que. -0.2 -0.4 -1.2 -1.0

Ont. o. 7 1.4 o.8 -0.6

Man. -1.8 -2.9 -3.0 -2.5

Sask. -3.7 -4.5 -7.0 -3.1

Alta. 1.6 -0.2 -1.8 4.0

B.C. 2.5 4.8 6.6 4.6

Net change** 0.55 0.89 1.03 0.85

asource: Census of Canada

hsource: "International and Interprovincial Migration in Canada", Catalog 91-208.

**Sum of all positive net flows/national population.

1976-198la

-3.6

o.o

-1.0

-1.3

-2.3

-0.9

-4.3

-0.6

10.8

4.5

1.34

17

asymmetry of growth at the inter-provincial scale. Such an uneven pattern

places pressure on the federal government to compensate, by means of economic

programs and social transfers, whereas urban-rural differences (as were

prominent in the 1950s) are primarily seen to be a problem for provincial

governments.

As Simoons (1984b) argues, variability in interprovincial migration is in

itself a norm, and it renders population forecasting at this spatial scale a

hazardous task. Over time the growth 'frontier' in Canada moves East or West,

North or South, from the core to the periphery, and in so doing defies most of

our simplistic models of regional development. The year to year uncertainty is

deoonstrated in Figure 8 which tracks the number of in-migrants and out-migrants

for four provinces. Each province has moved back and forth from surplus to loss

in different time periods. When the most recent data on interprovincial flows

are released a reverse flow from Alberta to Ontario will likely be evident. The,

forecasting problem at this spatial scale is more complex than ever, due to the

increased role of interprovincial migration (the most volatile component) in

population growth. Do we assume that future migration patterns will be like

those of the 1950s? or the 1960s? or the 1970s? Or are some further surprises

in store for us?

The Provincial Economies For the period 1976-81 at least, the primary roots of

the variations in provincial population growth rates are not difficult to find.

Provincial economic grOW"th, as Figure 9 and Table 2 demonstrate, show similar

dramatic variations over time.

Figure 9 compares the growth paths of the provincial economies since 1961,

measured in terms of provincial gross domestic product. The erratic growth of

the smaller provinces continued through the most recent five-year census period.

This is especially evident in the Atlantic provinces where real growth in

provincial domestic product fluctuates from plus ten per cent to minus ten per

cent, or worse. This kind of economic behaviour does not provide clear signals

for potential migrants, and as a result they tend to remain where they are. In

fact, on average, relatively little growth occurred in this region. Central

Canada provides an interesting contrast: very lttle variation, but also little

growth. Most of Canada's 1978-79 boom occurred in the West, but with Manitoba

120

100

80

60

40

20

100

80

60

40

20

-18-

Figure 8: Temporal Variations in Interprovincial Migration

/-...-.... __ ./ / ....._--

-':'~.......:----../ ----/

/

ALBERTA

NOVA SCOTIA

/ /

I __ _, /,.,...~,,..,

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--------

I I

I

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......... ~ ........ ....__.----0-+1-9_s_2..---..---~1-9s-5~---.---.....---.....--~~,-19_7_0~1 --_,.----r----...----...,-,9-7-5Tl---r---r----,-~~,~,9-s-011r--

Source: Statistics Canada, "International and Interprovincial Migration

O/o

10

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20

behaving more like industrialized Ontario than the other western provinces.

Saskatchewan and Alberta maintained a reasonably steady boom until 1981.

Alberta grew at a rate five to ten times nr:>re rapidly than Ontario during this

period, which accounts for the massive net migration flows. East of

Saskatchewan the maximum growth over the five years, 1976-1981, was 6.6% (New

Brunswick). Aside from an enormous surge in 1978, growth in B.C. was relatively

moderate.

These growth surges in time and space are largely reflections of price

changes in primary commodities - particularly energy - during the 1970s.

Needless to say they are extremely disruptive for policy-makers at all levels of

government. Unemployment and excess productive capacity occurs at place a at

time i, while overcrowded facilities and inflationary pressures occur at place

b at time j • By 1981-82, however, the nation had achieved a brutal solution

- a universal recession eventually affecting all sectors in all locations.

Table 3 highlights the differences between the growth of Alberta and the

rest of the country during the 1970s. In almost every dimension, Alberta has

grown twice as rapidly, but the most striking differences occur in income, where

Alberta accounted for almost one-quarter of the increment across the country,

and in capital investment. Between 1971 and 1981, the annual level of capital

investment in Canada increased by $14 billion. Forty per cent of that increase

was recorded in Alberta. The three western provinces aside, it was not an

expansive period for Canada; and in the next decade the country as a whole may

resemble the 'rest of Canada' in the 1970s.

Note the increase in government spending: both in Alberta, and in the rest

of the country. Transfer payments and government employment grew ioore rapidly

than the population or labour force as a whole, although less rapidly than

income overall. The impact of this activity on the settlement system in Canada

is seen at both the interprovincial and interurban scales. Government

expenditures help to insulate deioographic growth from economic growth by

providing alternative sources of income. By 1981 the calibration of migration

ioodels using various PJ.blic sector variables had become Rn active area of

research (Winer and Gauthier, 1982; Mills, Percy and Wilson, 1983).

On the one hand, the intervention by the federal government reduces the

variance in growth among the provinces. Unemployment insurance, for example,

21

TABLE 3

ALBERTA: THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD, 1971-1981

Alberta Ontario Rest of Canada

Growth 750/1628 922/7703 1108/12232 in Pogulation =46.1% =10. 7% =9.1% (in 0 Os)

Primary 48/ 116 21/ 180 55/424 =41.4% =11. 7% =13.0%

Mfg. 46/62 237/819 290/825 Growth =74.2% =28.9% =35.2%

in Labour Tertiary* 246{206 654~10.;rn 903/1352 Force = 19.4% =6 .6% =66.8%

(in OOOs) Inst. & 97 /146 253/660 564/916 Pub. Ad.** =66.4% =38.3% =61.6%

Total 512/688 1110/3354 1806/4584 =74.4% =33.1% =39.3%

Growth in Income $9356/6233 $117 38/30574 $20218/35488 (19 71 dollars, =150.1% =38.4% =57.0% in millions)

Growth in Public $1142/1359 $2374/7527 $7415/14097 Sector Expenditure =84.0% =31.5% =52.6% (19 71 dollars, in millons)

Growth in Capital $5497 /1866 $2314/7798 $6379/30294 ~x~endi tu re =294.6% =29.7% =21.1% ( 1 71 dollars, in millions)

*Includes Trade, FIRE, and Commercial Services **Includes Community Services

22

tends to reduce the rate of out-migration; and thus we observe relatively little

net migration movement among provinces in Central and Eastern Canada. On the

other hand, any increase in the economic role of the provinces tends to

exacerbate interprovincial differences in after-tax income and benefits.

Albertans are probably 10 to 15 per cent better off than other Canadians because

of public sector activities (Simioons, 1984a). But what is particularly striking

is the way in which Alberta has been able to spread the enormous increase in

provincial oil and gas revenues across the province as a whole. The provincial

economy has grown nnre rapidly in public sector employment than in the energy

sector. As a result, provincial boundaries have become significant geographical

entities in their own right. The contrast in settlement growth between Manitoba

and the provinces further West, for example, is very sharp.

THE URBAN SYSTEM

By 1981 a total of 147 urban places in Canada had attained a population of

10,000 or more, according to Statistics Canada criteria. This total includes

the 24 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) defined as "a main labour market area of

an urbanized core having 100,000 or more population, plus those nearby census

subdivisions that a) are partly within the urbanized core or b) send at least 40

per cent of its resident workers to the core or c) attract 25 per cent of its

work force from the core"; together with 88 Census Agglomerations (CAs) which

have urbanized cores or between 10,000 and 100,000 population, but otherwise are

defined like CMAs; and 35 individual urban municipalities of 10,000 population

or more, that are not included within the boundaries of CMAs or CAs. A complete

list of these places is provided in Appendix A. Interestingly, single listings

combining these three types of urban areas are rare, and indeed, data are not

published in the same sources for all of these areas.

To add to the difficulties facing researchers, the CA definitions employed

in the 1981 Census are not comparable to earlier Statistics Canada criteria.

The decision was taken to define CAs using entire census subdivisions as the

building blocks (as is done for CMAs) instead of smaller spatial units, and to

apply labour market criteria rather than the minimum population density

threshold used previously. As a result of these changes:

23

Effect

1 CA was redefined as a CMA +7.4 thousand population

52 CAs Md their houndaries enlarged +316.9

24 CAs were added to the list +135.8

22 CAs were removed (mostly those less than

2,000) -61.0

Net effect +399.1

Note that none of these changes required any urban growth; they are simply

the result of applying different spatial definitions. But the result was to add

almost four hundred thousand persons to the set of smaller urban areas, while

removing an equivalent amount from the rural population. Researchers should be

appropriately cautious when examining non-metropolitan growth.

In light of the difficulties in comparing rural and urban populations since

1976, Figure 10 takes a slightly different tack, by looking at the long-run

growth of various urban size groups. During the 1970s, the non-urban

population, here defined as settlements of less than 10,000, continued to

decline from 35.5 per cent of the total population to 26.9 per cent (largely due

to the redefinition noted above), while the most rapid growth occurred in the

smallest urban size category (the one most positively affected by the same

redefinition). This size group increased from 12.0 per cent to 16.1 per cent of

the total population. The middle-sized cities of 10,000 to 100,000 grew from

24.4 per to 27.9 per cent, while the largest centres (three of them) increased

their share modestly from 28.1 to 29.1 per cent. The performance of the latter

group is strongly affected by the slow growth of Montreal.

Between 1976 and 1981 variations in the growth of individual urban places

closely paralleled the regional differences outlined in the previous section.

As the following map (Figure 11) demonstrates, the most rapid urban population

growth took place in Alberta and the west generally. In fact east of

Saskatchewan most urban places grew at only modest rates and 27 out of 122

places declined in absolute population. As the previous overview paper

predicted, a continued growth of population can no longer be taken for granted

in much of urban Canada.

20.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

70

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

20

1.0

.9

.8

.7

.6

5

.4

.3

1851

-24-

City Size Groups

Cities over I million

1871 1891 1911 1931 1951

Ye or

Figure 10: Urban Population by City Size Group, 1851-1981

1971

"O

"' ....

29.1%

1981

(

--~.... . ' ' l..,-)',

' ', ' ' \ ' ..................

' ' ' r-_ -

' I -, ,

(\ / --~,..------;-----/ I I I I . . ' ' ' I • I I f ~'· ,' i 0 r .,, ,' 1

~\::\:·, \ 'f .. i / • ~ I • I ( I I I I ,. \ I I I I., I o I I --....._ __ o o I ., A. I ~I

....___ I • 1 o V I , 1 -----~-- / I Qo 10

---..... _J _fl ----------- ------ '-~--

CITY SIZE ( 1981 I

@---- 500K+ ---- 100-500K ---- 50· IOOK ---- 10- 50K

• 12+ • 5-12

0 5- g

0 o- 5 0 Lott

---...... 0

ol:i'-,_~--~-,

0 • 0 0

J'

Figure 11: Urban Population Growth Rates, by City Size, 1976-1981

c::::=:::>

I '

) ' ~

I N V1 I

26

Within this distinctly polarized pattern of regional growth there were a

number of interesting deviations. Places in Southern Ontario, for example, grew

very little outside of the Toronto sphere of influence (the urban field), while

in Quebec the opposite held true. Urban centres outside of the Montreal region

did better on average than the metropolis itself. Whether this contrast

reflects the relative isolation of smaller urban areas in Quebec from the rest

of the country, or the growth of public sector employment in Quebec City and

elsewhere in the province, or the considerable net out-migration of

English-speaking population from Montreal, remains to be evaluated.

What of the relationship that is traditionally assumed to exist between

city size and the rate of growth? At the national level the evidence is clear:

larger urban centres grew no more or less rapidly on average than smaller

places. Figure 12 plots the rate of growth against population size for 1976-81

for all 147 places in our study. Three specific relationships are revealed.

First, there is obviously no correlation between size and growth rate. Yet,

second, the variation in growth rates declines systematically with city size

such that the growth of the largest centres approaches that of the country as a

whole (Calgary, however, was an exception). In this example, the importance of

a larger, and ceteris parabis a more diversified local economy, in buttressing a

community against external economic shocks, is evident.

Finally the variation in growth rates among the smallest urban places is

characteristically high and asymmetrical. Levels of positive growth are much

higher than rates of population decline, indicating the roles of inertia and

government support programs. Growth rates in the 1976-81 period were as high as

+101 per cent (Fort McMurray, Alberta), while the maximum decline was only -10

per cent (Kirkland Lake, Ontario). Both of these extreme cases are highly

specialized communities, the former based on oil sands development and the

latter on mining. Although there are examples of more rapid population decline

among very small isolated resource centres (e.g. Schefferville, Quebec and

Uranium City, Saskatchewan), such examples are infrequent.

If cities in the far west (west of Manitoba) are differentiated from those

to the east on the same graph, two quite different growth regimes are apparent.

The 37 urban places in the west grew at an average of 18.6 per cent, with a

median of about 14 per cent, over the five years. The only place to witness

c: .2 0 :J 0.

rl:. c: -·- Q)

~2? ~I .... (J)

(.!) .....

-~ c: cu u .... ~

60 I

0

• t 89.8

+ • • •

• r 101.3

•

40

5a

.. 30 -~ 5n • Places in Soskatc:hewon, Alberto, e.c.

40~ 0 20 => 15 "" e IO "

o Rest of country

+ 20

10

• 0

•

• •

• • 0

0 0

0 0 • •

• •

• 0.

z

Sk • oOs

5

0 -16 -· 0 I 16 24 52 40 41 ,. 64 72 80 •• ff !04 Ofo Growth

c •

E •

0 • • • o • • o •R V

• • • • • v· • •••••••••.A.,.,.:·••••.,•.••••·•• ... •••. l'~~ .. •• .. •. • • •• •.; • .':° .•• • .. OA ... ~· • .!~~?., • .. • .~ • ~ • • .. K. ... • • • • • • • .. • • • • .o?. •• • • •• • •• • • • • • ••• ..... •• • .. ' • ... •' •

0 ° • • .,

0 • o 0 TR C-J 0 L Nationai Growth Rate 5.87%

OT

o o • .._ o o o o o o Hx H •o0 "Ii" o o 0 TB o O-H

o o~ • - • .., SJ • •SC ow o

Oo O • 0

0

o T 0 0 • IOk 0 0

Oii ·"'

0 • 0

o • 0 0 o 100 k 0 Wr Im 0 o•

0 0 0

00 osu

0 0

10L 0

0

20 1981 Population

Figure 12: Growth Rates and City Size

I N -.,.J

I

28

decline was the small isolated community of Powell River (forest products) on

the B.C. coast. This uniformity of growth in part mirrors the relative

homogeneity of the economic bases of western urban places (and the absence of an

older and depressed manufacturing sector). It also appears that the rapid

growth of provincial government revenues in the west (Table 3), has allowed

those governments to redistribute the benefits of growth to most urban centres

within their respective provinces.

To the east of the Saskatchewan border the pattern is rather different. The

average growth rate of all urban places is only 3.3 per cent, and the median is

only 2.5 per cent. What is particularly striking, however, is the lack of

variation in growth rates. Of the 115 urban places in this group, 81 (70%) grew

at rates within the range -2 to +8 per cent over the study period. Many of the

higher growth rates belonged to smaller cities that act in part as satellites to

a larger metropolitan area: as in the case of Barrie (12.5%), Oshawa (14.1%)

and Milton (35.1%) near Toronto.

Table 4 compares the growth rates by region and city size for 1976-81 with

those of the previous five-year census period. Again the marked regional

variation is evident and there is no systematic relationship between rate of

growth and city size within regions. The variability of urban growth (the

standard deviation) declines with population size, but increases from east to

west.

The major change from the previous census period is the increased regional

differentiation of urban growth, due largely to the boom in Alberta. The

correlation between growth rates for the last two periods (1971-76 and 1976-81)

is only 0.393 (n = 152), which although nearly twice that calculated in our previous study, is still relatively low. The ebb-and-flow of growth within the

urban system over relatively short periods of time is still the dominant

impression.

For a further look at these patterns Table 5 presents the aggregate rates

of change for each region and size group. Note that each cell in Table 4

averages all growth rates for that group of cities and is thus susceptible to

the effect of a single rapidly-growing place. In Table 5, on the other hand,

each cell shows the ratio of the sum of population growth in all urban centres,

divided by the sum of the initial populations. This formulation reduces the

F = No. of Cities M = Average

SD = Standard Deviation

a) Percent Growth, 1976-1981

CITY SIZEl

29

TABLE 4

REGION

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairie B.c.2 All Regions

Over 300,000 F M SD

10(}-300,000

30-100,000

10-30,000

All Sizes

F M SD

F M SD

3 3.57 2.80

8 2.47 3.20

F 12 M 1.25 SD 8.05

F 23 M 0.67 SD 6.38

2 3.59 3. 77

3 5.46 0.52

13 4.58 4.23

15 3.67 5.56

33 4.19 4.59

b) Percent Growth, 1971-1976

Over 300,000 F M

2 8.34

10(}-300,000

30-100,000

l(}-30,000

All Sizes

SD

F 3 M 6.89 SD 4.90

F 4 M 4.97 SD 6.23

F 13 M 0.16 SD 7.63

F 20 M 2.13 SD 7.30

1 0.56

10 1.71 5.05

19 4.03 6.94

'32 3.46 6.21

4 3.44 2.61

7 3.16 5.90

17 2.96 3.07

25 6.06

19.46

53 4.49

13.58

3 12.58

7 10.85 4.89

13 7.18 5. 78

20 3.88 4.56

43 6.62 5.66

3 14.58 12.45

2 11.96 4.65

6 11.93 19.84

13 22.93 30.91

24 18 .22 24.70

3 12.59

2 7.69 2.00

3 1.96 9.26

9 4.26 5.93

17 5.73 7.10

1 8. 74

1 6.96

8 11.93 5.91

9 14.04 16.28

19 12.49 11.63

1 16.00

1 11.72

3 27 .06 7.08

10 14.96 15.03

15 17.23 13.38

10 7.34 3.37

16 5.00 5.02

52 5.70 8.19

74 8.33

19.60

152* 7.01

14. 72

9 12.01 5.50

14 8.89 4.92

33 6.59 9.00

71 4.85 8.96

127 6.25 8.58

iusing initial population, based on final year areal definitions Includes Territories

*n=l5l includes places which had populations over 10,000 in 1976 but not in 1981.

Population Size Group (in OOOs)

>300

100-300

30-100

10-30

All Sizes

30

TABLE 5

AGGREGATE GROWTH RATE BY REGION AND CITY SIZE~ 1976-81

Region

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B.C.

1. 78 5.45 13.82 8.74

3.69 5.45 3.21 11. 7 5 6.96

0.23 4.53 3.27 10.84 12.78

-0.49 3.34 4.53 20.96 11.96

2.50 2.49 4.69 13.80 9.58

All Regions

5.93

4.80

5.50

6.86

5.75

31

effects of regional and city size differences slightly, although the same basic

patterns remain.

An examination of the components of population growth (and decline) for

individual metropolitan areas, reveals a wide variety of growth experiences

(Table 6). As we have come to expect, rates of natural increase are relatively

constant from place to place, with the major exception of Victoria (a retirement

destination). Otherwise, the rates vary from a low of 2.5 (Vancouver) to 6.5

(Chicoutimi and Edmonton) per cent. Natural increase accounts for most

population growth east of Saskatchewan. It is lower on average in the larger

centres and in the slowest growth areas, but these relationships do not hold

everywhere in the country. Net foreign immigration is more variable among urban

places, but its overall impact is less. In the larger places, however, this

component is substantial, approaching the contribution of natural increase.

The net internal migration figures are even more interesting and revealing.

First, as one would expect, in-migration rates among the metropolitan areas show

a much greater range (5.1 to 33.8 per cent) than out-migration (8.9 to 20.6 per

rent). The reason for this difference is that out-migrants are drawn from a

finite urban population with a given age structure, while in-migrants may come

from anywhere in the country. Although slightly lower in the largest centres,

out-migration is particularly high in the most rapidly growing centres, where

there are large numbers of unattached young in-migrants. As a result some

spectacular turnover rates are observed: approximately one fifth of the initial

population moved away from Saskatoon and Calgary in this five-year period.

In-migration is more sensitive to employment opportunities (including both

job-creation and out-migration). The flow of in-migrants was equivalent to

one-third of the 1976 population in Calgary and to one-quarter of Saskatoon's

1976 population. Yet even declining cities like Windsor and Sudbury attracted

some in-migrants.

Equally striking is the shift in the pattern of positive net migration

toward a small set of metropolitan centres. Only six of 24 metropolitan areas

had a net in-flow of internal migrants; and all but one (Oshawa) of these were

in the west. Even Oshawa is unrepresentative because it receives considerable

spill-over population from metropolitan Toronto. Nevertheless, as will be

discussed in more detail below, the degree of responsiveness of migrants to

32

TABLE 6

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH: CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1976-81

1981 Internal Popula- Growth Migrants Immigration tion Rate N.I.

RANK CMA {OOOs) % % In{%) Out{%) Net In(%) Net{%)

1 Toronto 2,998.9 7.0 4.0 8.2 8.9 -0.7 5.5 4.2

2 Montreal 2,828.3 0.9 3.3 5.1 8.9 -3.8 2.3 1.8

3 Vancouver 1,268.2 8.7 2.8 12.5 10.9 1.6 5.3 3.1

4 Ot tawa-Hul 1 718.0 3.6 3.9 12.6 13. 7 -1.1 2.7 0.3

5 Edmonton 657.1 16. 9 6.6 24.5 18.3 6.2 4.9 3.4

6 Calgary 592. 7 25.7 6.3 33.8 19.7 14.1 6.4 3.4

7 Winnipeg 584.8 1.1 3.3 9.9 13. 9 -4.0 3.3 4.3

8 Quebec City 5 76.1 6.3 4.5 9.0 9.2 -0.2 0.8 0.2

9 Hamilton 542.1 2.4 3.1 9.6 10.2 -0.6 2.0 0.6

10 St. Catharines 304.4 0.8 3.3 8.2 10.0 -1.8 1. 5 1.9

11 Kitchener 287.8 5.7 5.3 13.4 14.0 -0.6 2.5 1.1

12 London 283. 7 4.9 3.6 16.5 17.2 -0.7 2.2 1.0

13 Halifax 277. 7 3.6 4.4 14.9 16.6 -1.7 1.5 -1. 3

14 Windsor 246.1 -0.6 3.2 6.0 10.9 -4.9 2.3 1.6

15 Victoria 233.5 7.0 --0 .1 20.9 16.9 4.0 3.0 0.9

16 Regina 164.3 8.7 6.2 18.7 17.5 1.2 2.2 1.8

17 St. John's 154.8 6.5 5.2 9.8 12.0 -2.1 1.0 0.3

18 Saskatoon 154.2 15.2 5.3 26.4 20.6 5.8 2.8 2.0

19 Oshawa 154.2 14 .1 5.6 22.6 15.8 6.8 1.8 1.0

20 Sudoory 149.9 -4.5 4.9 8.0 16.1 -8.1 0.4 -0.3

21 Chicoutimi 135.2 5 .1 6.5 7.5 9.9 -2.4 0.4 -0.1

22 Thunder Bay 121.4 1.8 2.8 10.6 11.3 -o. 7 1.3 0.8 23 Saint John 114.0 0.9 4.2 10.3 12.7 -2.4 1.0 -0.4

24 Trois Rivieres 111.5 5.2 4.7 10.9 11. 3 -0.5 0.5 -0.1

mean 3B:~ i:1 1t1 H:9 2~:~ 2.4 ~=~ range 6.0 Notes: The Components do not always sum to total growth because of residual

errors. Source: Census of Canada, N.I. = Natural increase. 1981; Statistics Canada, Bulletin 81-206.

33

differentials in economic growth appears to have declined during this period.

Wide variations in the labour force participation rate and the level of

employment took up the slack between rates of natural increase and the level of

job creation.

The result of these differential growth rates, aside from the effects of

redefinition, is a further reordering of the Canadian urban hierarchy (Figure

13). Toronto has strengthened its position at the top of the hierarchy; Calgary

and Edmonton have pushed past Winnipeg to dominate the Prairies; cities in the

east generally declined and some (e.g. Saint John, Sudbury) have dropped

dramatically in the hierarchy. These relationships are particularly important

when they indicate a change in the role of competing service centres, such as

between Toronto and Montreal or among western cities, and when they mirror a

restructuring of networks of interurban interaction and dependence.

The Urban Economy Although this is not the place to explore the complex nature

of urban economic growth during this period, there are two facets of the economy

that link most closely with the demographic pattern: the growth of employment

and changes in labour force participation (Table 7).

One of the clearest messages in this table is the variety of economic

growth experiences that can occur with the Canadian urban system. It is also

evident that neither population size nor growth rate is a good indicator of the

economic condition of cities. For example, Toronto has about 170,000 more

inhabitants than Montreal, but it provides 300,000 more jobs, a very

considerable economic advantage. From another viewpoint, it is noteworthy that

every CMA increased the number of persons employed between 1976 and 1981 by at

least 7 per cent (minimum, Windsor 7.2%; maximum Calgary 54.9%), although two

declined in population and several others grew at only a negligible rate. The

range in employrrent growth rates is also much greater than the range of

population growth rates (30.2%).

The relationship between economic growth (i.e. jobs, hence income) and

demographic growth (number of persons) is mediated by changes in the proportion

of the population of working age (over 15 years), the participation rate (labour

force/population age 15+) and the employment rate (employed/labour force), which

is equal to (100 - the unemployment rate). Changes in each of these three

l. Montreal

2. Toronto

3. Vancouver

4. Winnipeg 5. Ottawa 6. Quebec 7. Hamilton 8, .Hndsor

1941 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981

• • • • • • • •

• • ::::.:>-,. • --- , • ---- 0 • XS -.. • • • • " • RiviOr • .-- • • • ,askatoon 24. o.-awa" • 0 •~• • • •Oshawa . . . . "" • • • .udbury . ---- . . • • • Ch1coutimi 20, ;Jud bury •

Figure 13:

. . . "' • • ~hunder Ba • • ,. y • vaint John • Trois Riv.~ ieres

Shifts in Rank Orders of CMAs, 1941-1981

l. 2.

3.

4. 5. 6 • 7. a. 9.

10. 11.

12.

13. I (...)

14. p.. I

l? • 16,

17. 18. 19. 20. 21.

22.

23.

24.

35

ratios reflects demographic or social processes, as well as prevailing economic

conditions (see Simmons, 1979).

The proportion of the population of working age in Canada's urban areas ls

primarily determined by the age structure: a high level of natural increase,

for example, produces a younger population. St. John's typically has a high

level of natural increase, while Victoria has the lowest. As the Canadian

population as a whole ages, all cities have shown an increase in the potential

work-force. Changes in such a measure also reflect recent shifts in the rate of

natural increase due to net in-migration (involving a higher proportion in the

fertile age groups and thus more children), as in Calgary, or prolonged net

out-migration (thus reducing the rate of natural increase), as in Trois Rivieres

or Saint John.

Of the three intermediary ratios the major source of interurban variation

is the participation rate, which varies from over 75 per cent in Calgary to less

than 60 per cent in most metropolitan areas in Quebec. Clearly there is a

social-cultural component to these differences as well as a relationship with

city size. ·Equally important, the ratio is sensitive to the occupational

structure of the local economic base (e.g. contrasting mining centres such as

Sudbury with service centres such as Ed100nton), and to the rate of growth in the

economy (e.g. Calgary vs. Chicoutimi). In other cities the rapid growth of the

participation rate may simply reflect their relatively low levels previously

(e.g. St. John's). The universal increases in this measure mirror broad social

changes, notably in the participation of women in the work force, and the shift

in the structure of the national economy from primary and secondary activities

to the tertiary sector.

The employment rate, unlike the other two measures, tends to be rather

volatile over time. Thus it is the better predictor of short-term (month to

month) economic conditions. The continued economic difficulties of cities in

Eastern Canada are readily apparent. Changes in the level of employment also

fluctuate in time and space, and during this period seemed to amplify the

patterns and problems of previous periods.

What does Table 7 suggest of the potential of the Canadian economy, if

utilized to its full capacity? If Calgary's levels of participation and

employment in 1981, for instance, were applied to Chicoutimi's population, the

36

TABLE 7

CHANGES IN THE URBAN LABOUR FORCE: CMAs, 1976-81

CMA

Toronto Montreal Vancoover Ot tawa-Hul 1 &l.monton*

Calgary* Winnipeg Quebec City Hamilton St. Catharines

Kitchener London Halifax Windsor Victoria

Regina St. John's* Saskatoon Oshawa Sudbury

Chicoutimi Thunder Bay Saint John Trois Rivieres*

mean range

1981 Pop.

(OOOs)

2,998.9 2,828.3 1,268.2

718.0 657.1

592. 7 584.8 5 76.1 542.1 304.4

287.8 283.7 277. 7 246.1 233.5

164.3 154.8 154.2 154.2 149.9

135.2 121.4 114.0 111.5

% Pop./ Age

15+8

78.7 79.1 79.6 78.2 76.7

77.7 78.1 77.6 78.0 77.7

75.6 77 .8 77 .o 76.5 81. 3

75.3 72.5 76. 7 74.8 74.4

75.4 76.9 74.6 78. 7

77.0 8.8

*Adjusted a - for boundary change as calculated in 1981 bper cent

change = 1981 - 1976 per cent

b Change

2.3 2.2 1.2 2.9 2.5

3.2 1.6 1.6 2.6 2.6

1.8 1.8 3.2 2.3 1.1

1.1 2.0 1.4 1. 9 3.6

2.0 1.5 1.7 1. 5

2 .1 1.5

Source: Census of Canada, 19 76 an

37

latter would employ fifty per cent more workers. From this perspective, Canada

is an economic system with an enormous amount of excess capacity which absorbs

much of the stimulus of economic growth. Only the most powerful economic

signals are passed from one city to another.

One result of this excess capacity in the metropolitan labour supply has

been an asymmetrical demographic response to economic growth and new employment

opportunities. Following a long period of growth, an additional sudden surge of

economic activity may stimulate a large and immediate migration response. After

a long period of no growth, however, neither a sharp upturn nor further decline

are likely to generate substantial migration flows. The local labour market

absorbs the impact.

A recent preliminary analysis of the sectoral composition of growth in the

24 CMAs provides further insights into urban economic growth (Hooper, et al.,

1983). It appears that most urban growth in this period occurred through

dramatic shifts (as opposed to changing shares) in non-basic activities. The

growth of some provincial economies has enabled governments to allocate the

benefits of that growth widely across each province as a whole. As noted

earlier, increased energy revenues in Alberta permitted a rapid growth in

community services in almost every city in the province.

Overall, however, one of the most interesting urban growth relationships

reflected a different kind of provincial activity. Between 1978 and 1981 there

was a shift of over 100,000 jobs in trade, finance and services away from

Montreal, while Toronto gained about the same amount including 50,000 in finance

and services. As a result there has been a permanent restructuring of the

Canadian urban hierarchy. Toronto is now firmly implanted as the national urban

centre; Montreal now largely serves the francophone region: while in the west

Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver play a much greater role in the national economy

than before. Each of the three serves a different function in the West, while

Winnipeg serves a smaller and smaller region.

For an insight into the complexity of the economic aspects of the urban

growth process, consider Figure 14, which plots annual employment changes by

sector for three metropolitan areas. In Sudbury, the economic base suffered a

series of reversals, but the tertiary sector (Trade) continued to grow.

Calgary's first ~rowth surge, 1973-1974, occurred in the tertiary sector, but

(/)

0 0 0

-c: Q)

E >-0 Q.

E w c: (/) Q)

O' c: 0 J: u a ::J c: c:

39

the oil industry led the way in the late 1970s. Finance (FIRE) appears to

provide a m::>re stable source of growth for m::>st cities. In Toronto, services

have led the way through the decade, but each of the other sectors has played a

leading role at times. Large complex urban economies such as Toronto average

out the vicissitudes of particular economic sectors.

The bottom line on the economic side is the amount of income generated

(Table 8), and thus the size of the local market. From a retailer's point of

view, the urban size hierarchy alone generates tremendous variations in market

size, but this variation is further m::>dified by a slight tendency for larger

places to have higher average incomes, augmented by regional variations in

income levels.

Table 8 looks at changes in the urban system from the point-of-view of

consumer income, and thus potential sales. Although the rankings of cities by

population size have changed only slightly between 1971 and 1981, the

differential rates of income growth are dramatic. This suggests significant

variations from place to place in the economic environment of retailers and

wholesalers (as well as for local government revenues). The differentials in

income growth are greater than the variations among urban centres in either

population or employirent growth. Household income has increased very little, on

average, but household size has declined and there are many more households per

thousand population.

CHANGES WITHIN METROPOLITAN AREAS

The pattern of population growth and decline within individual urban areas

during the 1976-81 period was very much like that of the previous five-year

period. This pattern included widespread decline in the older built-up areas,

intense growth on the suburban edge and scattered growth within the outer fringe

(urban field). The impression is again one of continued decentralization. In

terms of the processes involved, however, some subtle changes are evident that

also anticipate the patterns we may observe in the future.

Within the Built-Up Area: The basic processes involved in the spatial

redistribution of population within cities are now well known. In every city

the effects of two processes are superimposed: first, reduced household size

l • Toronto 2. Montreal 3. Vancouver 4. Ottawa 5. WI nnipeg

6. Hamilton 7. Edmonton 8. Quebec 9. Calgary

10. London

19 71

Total Income

$millions

9,313 8,060 3,511 2,032 1, 581

1,560 1,499 1,290 1,257

911

11. St.Catharines 872 12. Windsor 817 13. Kitchener 699 14. Halifax 639 15. Victoria 608

16. Sudbury 485 17. Regina 386 18. Saskatoon 342 19. Thunder Bay 320 20. Chicoutimi 285

21. St.John's 277 22. Saint John 257

mean range

Source: Census of Canada,

40

TABLE 8

METROPOLITAN MARKETS, 1971-1981 ( 19 71 dollars)

Income/ hh $

12,000 10,000 10,000 l~,900

,500

10,700 10,400 10,100 10,400 10,400

9,800 11, 100 10,500 10,700 9,100

12,300 9,100 8,900 9,900 9,600

9,300 8,900

10,200 3,400

Toronto Montreal Vancouver Ottawa Edmonton

Calgary Winnipeg Hamilton Quebec London

St.Catharines Kitchener Victoria Halifax Windsor

Regina Saskatoon Sudbury Thunder Bay St.John's

Chicoutimi Saint John

1971 and 1981.

1981

Total Income

$millions

12,647 10,404

5,575 2,944 2,828

2, 723 2,127 2,047 2,022 1,057

1,047 1,019

970 944 865

639 580 487 463 457

391 360

Income/ hh $

12,200 10,100 11, 700 l~,500 1 ,200

12,900 9,800

10,800 10, 300 10,000

9,800 10,300 10,200 10,000 10,000

10,900 10,100 10,000 11, 100 10,600

9,700 9, 700

I

--r---

10,600 3,200

Growth Rate (%)

35.8 29.1 58.8 44.9 88.6

116.6 34.5 31.2 56.7 16.0

20.1 45.8 i9.6 7.8

5.9

65.6 69. 7 0.4

44.8 65.0

37.3 39.9

--46.1

116.2

41

and second, the suburban concentration of new housing construction. As the

decline in the birth rate passed through another age cohort (10-14 years), and

non-family households proliferated, average household size declined again, this

time by about ten per cent. This in turn led to a thinning-out of the

population in almost every residential district in the metropolitan area.

Second, in those CMAs that are still growing in population, the increased

number of households requires new housing construction. For the most part, this

increment in the housing stock occurs at the margin of the built-up area or at a

few selected locations of redevelopment within the older parts of the city. The

overall result of these two processes has been a rapid decline in population in

the central city and in some older suburbs, with a reduction in the rate of

decline as one approaches the newer suburbs, with growth concentrated on the

edge of the built-up area.

These patterns are illustrated in the following maps. Toronto (Figure 15)

typifies the processes described above, at least among the larger metropolitan

areas. There has been a widespread decline of population in that part of the

city constructed before 1951, contrasted with extensive growth at the suburban

edge. Major concentrations of growth are apparent in the northern parts of

Scarborough, in Markham, Brampton and Mississauga. Although there is some

growth in the rural parts of the comnruting zone the overwhelming proportion of

new construction occurs in suburban subdivisions with familiar names.

The differences from the pattern of the previous census period are rather

modest: first, the overall intensity of population decline in the older part of

the CMA has abated somewhat. There has been some growth in the central core

largely through new housing construction, but many census tracts remained

unchanged as the demographic transition had largely worked through the social

fabric of those neighbourhoods in the previous period. Second, the area of

population decline has not spread outward significantly further than in the

previous period, but there is now a much broader band of no change in the

suburban zone. Most of Metro Toronto, then, has neither grown nor declined.

Although the processes remain the same in other cities, their spatial

expression will change depending on the growth rate of the entire urban area.

In Sudbury (Figure 16), for example, an overall population decline has reduced

the need for new residential construction at the edge of the built-up area. In

• ••

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Figure 15: Toronto CMA:

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Patterns of Growth and Decline, 1976-81

•

Gain of r,ooo Loss of l,OOQ I J:'-

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Figure 16:

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Patterns of Growth and Decline, 1976-81:

Sudbury b) Calgary

• • • • • • • • • • • •

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.!:'-w I

44

Calgary (Figure 16), in contrast, the dramatic growth in population and the

accompanying increase in housing values, led to an intensification of housing

use throughout the urban area. Even so, there are pockets of decline in the

older suburbs.

The demographic process behind the differential rates of population decline

is examined in Table 9 for the Toronto CMA. It is obvious that most of the

population decline is attributable to a decline in household size. Average

household size declined at a rate of -12.5 in the city, -9.5 per cent in Metro's

suburbs and -12.6 per cent in the outer fringe during the 1971-76 period; and at

rates of -9.7, -6.9 and -5.3 per cent respectively in 1976-81. These declines,

in turn, reflect two types of social change: a reduction in average family size

due primarily to changes in fertility levels; and the replacement of family

households by non-family households of various kinds. The latter originates in

a variety of ways: through increases in the number of older people, many living

alone; in the number of young singles; as well as through household dissolution,

marriage break-ups and various unorthodox groupings. These households are

typically much smaller. For the Toronto CMA in 1976, family households averaged

3.6 persons while non-family households averaged only 1.3 persons.

One should not expect these phenomenal rates of decline in household size

to continue, however. Indeed, the decrease in the fertility level has virtually

ceased and the corresponding adjustment in family size should now be essentially

complete. Although the process of creating new non-family households can be

expected to continue, it will be slowed down by the declining rate of growth in

the younger age cohorts with the highest rates of household formation. An aging

population will also alter the composition of both family and non-family

households.

Which of the two processes has contributed most to the decline? Table 9

further suggests that in the central city the invasion by non-family households

predominates. Over the decade average family size has declined by only 5.6 per

cent; but the proportion of non-family households has increased by almost

one-half. A slmpl0 example mav help to clarify the di~nsions of change:

45

T !\1U,!

46

TABLE 9 (continued)

1971 1976 1981 The Fringe (CMA-Metro) (OOOs) (OOOs) (OOOs)

Population ~OOOs~ 512.4 678.8 861.5 change OOOs 166.4 182.7 % change 32.5 26.9

Households (OOOs) 137.2 196.5 263.9 change (OOOs) 59.3 67.4 % change 43.2 34.3

Household Size 3.90 3.41 3.23 change - 0.49 - 0.18 % change -12.6 - 5.3

% Non-Family Households 10.3 12.5 14.4 change 2.2 1.9 % change 21.4 15.2

Family Size 3.72 3.52 3.37 change - 0.20 - 0.15 % change - 5.4 - 4.3

CMA Total

Population 2,602.1 2,803.1 2,998.9 change (OOOs) 201.0 195.8 % change 7.7 7.0

Households 7 66. 9 909.5 1,040.3 change ( OOOs) 142.6 130.8 % change 15. 7 14.4

Household Size 3.34 3.03 2.84 change - 0.31 -0.9 % change - 9.3 -6.3

% Non-Family Households 85.5 78.8 75.5 change -6.7 -3.3 % change -7.8 -4.2

Family Size 3.4 3.31 3.20 change - 0.13 -0.11 % change - 3.8 -3.4

47

of 100 households in the central city in 19 71:

65 were family households @ 3.24 = 211 persons 35 were non-family households @ 1.30 == 46 persons

257 persons

of 100 households in the central city in 1981:

58 were family households @ 3.06 = 165 persons 49 were non-family households @ 1.22 56 persons

221 persons

This replacement itself generates a population decline of 16.0 per cent.

For the rest of the CMA, however, the decline in fertility is more

significant. Family size declined by about 10 per cent and the number of

non-family households increased from 15 per cent of the total to 25 per cent,

for a total effect on population change of less than five per cent.

The Urban Field. The other scale of interest h.ere encompasses the extensive

region stretching 100 kilometres or more outward from the metropolitan core, but

which is increasingly oriented to the core. This area, typically labelled the

'urban field', represents the expanded living space of urban residents, serving

as a place of residence and recreation and ultimately as workplace.

The massive investments in regional transportation facilities made during

the 1960s, particularly in terms of peripheral highway systems, provided the

means for a vast territorial expansion of urban-based activities and life

styles. The emergence of new leisure systems, higher incomes and demographic

change have in turn stimulated rapid growth in this field. As many U.S.

observers have argued, the outward expansion of the metropolitan region, often

far beyond the census-defined metropolitan areas, has been a contributing factor

to the apparent negative growth of many metropolitan areas in that country

during the 1970s.

While the outward expansion of the urban field has continued, it is

important to place it in the larger perspective of settlement growth across the

country. The effects of this transformation are most prominent at specific

locations within the field: small towns and villages add new households, and

perhaps a new subdivision; new stores eme·rge to serve urban visitors;

48

recreational facilities develop to meet leisure needs; and hohby farms and

retirement residences dot the landscape in amenity-rich areas. Yet, for the

Canadian metropolitan region as a whole the impact in numerical terms has not

heen substantial. The number of households involved typically does not amount

to the population of a single suburban neighbourhood, and the number of jobs

pales in comparison to those generated by a modest industrial park or a major

regional shopping plaza.

Figure 15 and 17 describe the pattern of population change in the Toronto

CMA between 1976 and 1981. Of the total growth in population of almost 195,000

only 15,000 occurred within the municipality of Metro Toronto itself, but

158,000 occurred in the adjacent municipalities of Mississauga, Brampton,

Vaughan, Markham and Pickering. Only 22,000 occurred in more distant

communities. Traditional suburban expansion, then, overwhelmingly dominates the

growth process.

A further dimension is provided in Figure 17 which maps changes in

journey-to-work trips within the CMA over the decade, 1971-81. The resulting

flows thus emcompasses both residential shifts and employment shifts. Note

first, the pervasive growth in employment during this period. The number of

comnruting workers in the Toronto CMA increased by over 500,000 over the decade,

almost a 50 per cent increase. The largest growth took place in the growing

suburbs - North York (127,000), Mississauga (105,000), Etobicoke (63,000), and

Scarborough (58,000), but even the City of Toronto grew by 44,000 (8.4 per

cent). The major shifts in comnruter flows incorporate this growth, extending

the link.ages to the newer suburbs, particularly to the West. As a result the

east-west orientation of development in the metropolitan area has become even

rore pronounced. Changes in the peripheral portion of the urban field are

relatively minimal.

One can speculate about the constraints on the future growth of the urban

field: real incomes have not grown as rapidly as they did in the early 1970s,

and the rapid increase in the number of households with two workers has placed a

douhle pressure on ac.c.essibility. On the other h

····-·--------------------------------------

•

0 IOKm.

Employment

* + 100,000 workers D + 30,000 workers • + 10,000workers

Commuter Trips -+100,000 -+30,000 --- - 30,000

Figure 17: Changes in Employment and Journey to Work, Toronto 1971-81

I +:--

"° I

50

CONCLUSIONS

The 1970s were indeed a decade of transition for urban Canada, combining

ingredients of rapid, often dramatic, change in settlement patterns with a

degree of stability and continuity. The consequences of changes in past decades

continue to be felt in the form and composition of urban growth. The explosive

growth of the 1950s, the derrographic transition of the 1960s, and the resource

boom and manufacturing depression of the 1970s have yet to run their full

course. A study of a decade or less in isolation of the longer term trends is

both incomplete and potentially misleading.

The diagram in Figure 18 summarizes some of the major growth processes that

have been observed in the 1970s, and which this paper has attempted to document.

The dominant processes of social change include those demographic changes that

have brought about a fifty percent reduction in the number of persons age

fifteen and under since 1966, thus maintaining a high level of entrants to the

labour force; and the associated life style changes that have rapidly increased

the proportion of women who work, and altered the composition of households.

The economy has witnessed a five-fold rise in the value of energy while the

manufacturing sector has been hurt by technological change and by foreign

competition. At the same time there has been a rapid expansion of jobs in

services, both private and community. And some of the most interesting

processes reflect government activities which often affect settlement systems in

unanticipated ways. Actions of the federal government tend to redistribute

growth relatively equally across the country whereas provincial policies have

tended to increase interprovincial inequalities but internal homogeneity.

Patterns of settlement change are listed on the right-hand side of the

diagram, with the significant relationships indicated by arrows. Each process

leaves its own spatial pattern of impact. Nationally, there has been a slight

decline in the overall rate of population growth, due both to the lower rate of

natural increase and tougher immigration procedures. The national rate largely

determines the possibility of growth rates within the cities in the system.

Reduced immigration reflects a weakening in the nation's economic performance as

measured by the unemploynent rate; and there has been a very rapid growth of the

labour force because of the demographic bulge of the baby boom and the surge in

51

the female participation rate, so that the high level of job creation has been

overtaken. Both jobs and workers have increased almost twice as fast as

population, and most urban areas now have a surplus of workers.

Almost all the provincial variation in population growth in 1976-81

occurred between the three Western-most provinces and the rest. Only minimal

differences were evident among the Eastern provinces. The urban system reflects

this provincial variation, but adds two additional twists: within each province

in the West the ability of the government to spread growth more evenly is

apparent, while the actions of the Quebec government have accelerated a long-run

trend that favours Toronto over Montreal.

Figure 18 Major Processes and Relationships in Settlement Change, 1976-81

KEY PROCESSES SPATIAL SCALE

Social Change

Birthrate (-)

Female Participation

Household Size (-)

Lagged Growth in L.F.

Economic Change

Energy Prices (+)

Manufacturing (-)

Services(+)~~~---

Government Action

Federal Redistribution

The Provinces~~~~~_,,,,....

Quebec

Nationally

Natural Increase (-)

Net Immigration (-)

Econ. Performance (-)

The Far West (++)

Little Variation

Elsewhere

Urban System

Regional Pattern (+)

Intra-provincial

Homogeneity

Toronto-Montreal

Decline in Core (-)

Growth at Edge (+)

Urban Field (+)

Most metropolitan areas have shown a similar pattern of population change:

a decline at the core and in the older post-war neighbourhoods, offset by

52

conventional suburban development at the edge. Both processes are modified by

the overall growth rate of the city. The important linkages here are largely

social--declining family size and an increase in the proportion of non-family

households. Relatively little growth has taken place in the more extensive

urban field, and metropolitan regions in a larger sense still seem to be the

most active growth zones within their provinces.

The final point to stress is that each five or ten year period identifies a

different mix of key processes from the last--different economic sectors,

different demographics and different patterns of government intervention. While

we should work very hard to trace through the impacts on settlement of each

possible event; the prospects for forecasting, and by implication for any major

attempts to alter the settlement patterns through policy, are limited.

In summary, over the entire decade of the 1970s urban Canada displayed some

of the same tendencies as observed elsewhere in the developed world: 1) slower

population growth; 2) a slight decline in the level of urbanization, as

traditionally defined; 3) a drop in the proportion of population resident in

the industrial heartland; 4) a resurgence of growth in a few non-metropolitan

areas; 5) an absolute decline of population in two smaller and

heavily-industrialized metropolitan areas; 6) a relatively concentrated

pattern of regional growth and net migration flows; and 7) a continued outward

spread or decentralization of population from the core of the metropolis to the

suburbs and surrounding fringe areas.

Data for the post-1981 period, although sparse, indicate that several of

the trends noted above have again been reversed. Most obvious among these has

been the sharp decline in migration to Alberta and the modest upturn in growth

in the industrial heartland. Older patterns may be re-establishing themselves,

but in a new format and with differing composition. Rather than deurbanization

we are witnessing a redefinition and reorganization of parts of the Canadian

urban system and of the urban areas which comprise that system.

In comparison, to the 1970s, the decade of the 1980s nay be one of relative

stability in urban growth. On the basis of past trends we would anticipate a

stabilization of the rate of demographic transition. We anticipate less

dramatic variations in population growth, by region, by city size or within

urban areas than were observed in the last decade. In broad outline the

53

Canadian urban system and the internal structure of our cities may not change

very much. Nevertheless, in an environment of slower overall growth rates,

growth will be more localized and intense and thus more visible. The majority

of urban places, however, will grow at rates similar to the national average.

What factors may contribute to further changes or stability in the decade

ahead? What are consequences of these emerging trends? The most volatile

elenents in our society, the population cohort aged 15 to 25, will decline in

number absolutely, and will make up less than half the proportion they accounted

for in the turbulent 1960s. Their declining number will be associated with a

host of social indicators, such as lower rates of automobile accidents, crime,

childbirth, unemployment, high-rise apartment construction, long-distance

migration and related social change.

Fewer entrants to the labour force, particularly in the more mobile age

groups, will be imposed on a labour market that already operates at a surplus.

This surplus will reduce the likelihood of high intercity variations in growth,

since the local labour market can absorb much of the impact. Eastern Canada was

already in this pattern during the late 1970s. Few cities will grow more or

less than one per cent per year.

This reduced level of growth will also alter the pressures for the internal

restructuring of urban areas. In some instances the pressure for change may

decrease, particularly when it is accompanied by a decline in the level of

household formation, and a stabilization in the growth of real income. Fewer

dramatic developments in either the downtown or the central core are likely.

Instead, attention will turn to the problem of an aging infrastructure - the

highways, suburbs, shopping plazas, and high-rises of the early post-war period

that are now thirty years old.

On the other hand, pressures for change will increase in some instances.

Slower population growth spread over a larger geographical area will make those

areas undergoing decline, or those neighbourhoods with emerging social and

environmental problems, more evident. Some of the soft underbellies in the

housing market and in the commercial sector will no longer be obscured by a

blanket of prosperity and by low vacancy rates.

Social policy and the location of target clientele will take precedence

over land use control on the policy side. The jurisdictional conflicts due to

54

the spatial spillovers and land use externalities involved in land development

will be paralleled by bickering among all levels of government about the public

finance aspects of social programs. Who pays? Who designs? Who controls? Who

receives? An era has ended.

55

REFERENCES

Bourne, L.S. and Simmons, J.W. 1979. Canadian Settlement Trends: An

Examination of the Spatial Pattern of Growth, 1971-1976. Major

Report No. 15. Centre for Urban and Community Studies, University

of Toronto.

Economic Council of Canada, 1981. Room for Manoeuver. Eighteenth Annual

Review. Ottawa.

Hooper, D., Simmns, J.W. and Bourne, L.S. 1983. "The Changing Economic Basis

of Canadian Urban Growth, 1971-1981". Research Paper No. 139, Centre

for Urban and Community Studies, University of Toronto.

Mills, K.E., Percy, M.B. and Wilson, L.S. 1983. "The Influences of Fiscal

Incentives on Interregional Migrations" Canadian Journal of Regional

Science, VI (Autumn), pp. 207-230.

Robinson, I. 1981. Canadian Urban Growth Trends. Vancouver: UBC Press.

Simmons, James W. 1979. "Mysteries of Urban Growth: A Cross-Sectional

Analysis of the Canadian Urban System", Research Paper No. 114,

Centre for Urban and Community Studies, University of Toronto.

Simmns, James W. 1984a. "Governre nt and the Canadian Urban System:

Income Tax, Transfer Payments and Employment", Canadian Geographer,

XXVIII, 1, pp. 18-45.

Simnnns, James W. 1984b. "Forecasting Future Geographies: Provincial

Populations", The Operational Geographer, 2, pp. 7-12.

Winer, S.L. and Gauthier, D. 1982. Internal Migration and Fiscal

Structure. Ottawa: Economic Council of Canada.

56

APPENDIX A

URBAN PLACES IN CANADA, 1981 (CMAS, CAs and Urban Mtmicipalities of io,ooo Population or M::ire)

Population (OOOs) % Growth Rank Urban Area ~ Province 1976 1981 1976 81

1 Toronto CMA Ontario 2,803.1 2,998.9 7.0 2 M::intreal CMA Quebec 2,802.5 2,828.3 0.9 3 Vancouver CMA B. C. 1,166.3 1,268.2 8.7 4 Ottawa-Hull CMA Ont-Quebec 693.3 718.0 3.6 5 Edmonton CMA Alberta 562.3 657.1 16.9 6 Calgary CMA Alberta 471.4 592.7 25.7 7 Winnipeg CMA Manitoba 578.2 584.8 1.1 8 Quebec CMA Quebec 542.2 576.1 6.3 9 Hamilton CMA Ontario 529.4 542.1 2.4

10 St.Catharines CMA Ontario 301.9 304.4 0.8 11 Kitchener CMA Ontario 272. 2 237 .8 5.7 12 London CMA Ontario 270.4 283.7 4.9 13 Hal if ax CMA N. S. 268.0 277. 7 3.6 14 Windsor CMA Ontario 247.6 246.1 -0.6 15 Victoria CMA B. C. 218.3 233.5 7.0 16 Regina CMA Sask. 151. 2 164.3 8.7 17 St. Johns CMA Nfld. 145.4 154