Recent Progress in Measuring and Modeling Patterns of Biomass and Soil Carbon Pools

Across the Amazon Basin

Christopher Potter, NASA Ames Research Center, cpotter@mail.arc.nasa.gov

Yadvinder Mahli, University of Edinburghy.malhi@ed.ac.uk

Presentation for the III LBA Scientific Conference27-29 July, 2004 Brasília, Brazil

Main Questions:What are current uncertainties in aboveground & belowground carbon pools for the Amazon

basin?

What are current uncertainties in ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin?

Pre-LBA (Prior to 1996):

Early inventory estimates and modeling studies of aboveground carbon pools for the Amazon basin

Early modeling studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin

LBA Contributions:

Incrementally improved estimates of aboveground and belowground carbon pools for the Amazon basin

Integration of field measurements with modeling studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin

Future Steps:

Future inventory and integration studies of aboveground and belowground carbon pools for the Amazon basin

Future integration studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin

Outline for the Presentation

Automated Search of Official LBA Publications List and Beija-Flor:

Keywords “carbon” and (“pool” or “storage” or “stock”) or “carbon” and “sink”

Targeted personal contacts with LBA investigators

Scope of the review: Amazon drainage basin or Legal Amazon area-wide studies

Focus: Controls by climate, soils, and land cover mapping on regional carbon pools and sinks

Review and Synthesis Methods

• Andreae, M.O; Almeida, S.S.; Artaxo, P.; Brandão, C.; Carswell, F.E.; Ciccioli, P.; Culf, A.; Esteves, J.L.; Gash, J.; Grace, J.; Kabat, P.; Lelieveld, J.; Malhi, Y.; Manzi, A.O.; Meixner, F. X.; Nobre, A.; Nobre, C.; Ruivo, M.A.L.; Silva-Dias, M.A.; Stefani, P.; Valentini, R.; Jouanne, J. & Waterloo, M. 2002. Biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, trace gases and aerosols in Amazonia: The LBA-EUSTACH experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, D20, 8066 - 8091. doi:10.1029/2001JD000524.

• Foley, J.A., A. Botta, M.T. Coe, and M.H. Costa. 2002. The El Niño / Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystem and rivers of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,doi:10.1029/2002GB001872.

• Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924.

• Houghton, R.A.; Lawrence, K.T.; Hackler, J.L; & Brown, S. 2001. The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: a comparison of estimates. Global Change Biology, 7: 731-746.

• Houghton, R.A.; Skole, D.L.; Nobre, C.A.; Hackler, J.L.; Lawrence, K.T. & Chomentowski, W.H. 2000. Annual fluxes or carbon from deforestation and regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon. Nature, 403(6767): 301-304.

• Laurance, W.F.; Fearnside, P.M.; Laurance, S.G.; Delamonica, P.; Lovejoy, T.E.; Rankin-de Merona, J.; Chambers, J.Q. & Gascon, C. 1999. Relationship between soils and Amazon forest biomass: A landscape-scale study. Forest Ecology and Management, 118: 127-138

• Malhi, Y. et al., 2004. The above-ground coarse wood productivity of 104 Neotropical forest plots, Global Change Biology, 10: 563-591.

• Nepstad, D.; Lefebvre, P.; Silva Jr., U.L.; Tomasella, J.; Schlesinger, P.; Solorzano, L.; Moutinho, P. & Ray, D. 2004. Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis.  Global Change Biology, 10: 704-717.

• Nobre, C.A. 2001. Amazônia: fonte ou sumidouro de carbono? In: Brasil. Ministério do Meio Ambiente. Causas e Dinâmicas do Desmatamento da Amazônia. Brasília, MMA, p. 197-224,

• Potter, C.; Genovese, V.B.; Klooster, S.; Bobo, M. & Torregrosa, A. 2001. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region. Atmospheric Environment, 35: 1773-1781.

• Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; de Carvalho, C.R.; Genovese, V.B.; Torregrosa, A.; Dungan, J.; Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. 2001. Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106: 10423-10446.

• Santos, J.R.; Lacruz, M.S.P.; Araujo, L.S. & Keil, M. 2002. Savanna and tropical rainforest biomass estimation and spatialization using JERS-1 data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 23, 1217-1229.

• Tian H, Melillo JM, Kicklighter DW, McGuire AD, Helfrich III J, Moore III B, Vörösmarty CJ. 2000. Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 9, 315-336.

Selected LBA DIS Search Results

Interpolation based on sites is generally limited to mature or primary forests. Clearings or openings within forested regions were generally not recognized in the ground-based approaches (the 44 sites and RADAMBRASIL). On the other hand, satellite based maps (e.g., DeFries and Potter) include observations to include cleared areas.

Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) HypothesesAboveground carbon pools

Houghton, R.A., Lawrence, K.T., Hackler, J.L, and Brown, S. 2001. The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: a comparison of estimates. Global Change Biology, 7: 731-746.

Mean aboveground pool estimate for Brazilian Amazon is 70 Pg C in forest biomass, with high to low biomass running E to W through central Amazonia.

Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) Hypotheses

Potter, C. S., E. A. Davidson, S. A. Klooster, D. C. Nepstad, G. H. de Negreiros, and V. Brooks. 1998. Regional application of an ecosystem production model for studies of biogeochemistry in Brazilian Amazonia. Global Change Biology. 4(3):315-334.

Belowground carbon pools

g C m-2

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Moraes, J.L., C.C. Cerri, J.M. Melillo, D. Kicklighter, C. Neill, D.L. Skole, and P.A. Steudler. 1995. Soil carbon stocks of the Brazilian Amazon basin. Soil Science Society of America Journal. 59:244-247.

Belowground pool estimates for Brazilian Amazon range from 47-74 Pg C, depending on method of interpolation of RADAM soil carbon data bases.

Impact of land use change on soil carbon storage is a major uncertainty in the existing regional inventories of belowground pool changes.

Surface Soil Carbon Pools

Fan S.M., Wofsy S.C., Bakwin P.S., Jacob D.J., Fitzjarrald D.R. (1990) Atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2 and O3 in the central Amazon forest, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 16,851-16,864.

Tian H., Melillo J.M., Kicklighter D.W., McGuire A.D., Helfrich III J.V.K., Moore III B., Vörösmarty C.J. (1998) Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Nature 396, 664-667.

Interannual temperature and rainfall interact to determine net carbon sink fluxes in the Amazon basin. El Niño years result in regional source fluxes of ca. 0.2 Pg C per yr, whereas other years result in regional sink fluxes of ca. 0.5 Pg C per yr (Tian et al., 1998), notably lower than an earlier estimate by Fan et al. (1990) at regional sink fluxes of ca. 1.2 Pg C per yr.

Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) Hypotheses

Potter, C. S., E. A. Davidson, S. A. Klooster, D. C. Nepstad, G. H. de Negreiros, and V. Brooks. (1998) Regional application of an ecosystem production model for studies of biogeochemistry in Brazilian Amazonia. Global Change Biology. 4(3):315-334.

Regional patterns in rainfall and solar radiation determine net carbon sink fluxes. Total NPP is ca. 5 Pg C per yr for the Brazilian Amazon (Potter et al. 1998).

0 250 500 750 1000 1250

g C m-2 yr -1

Regional carbon fluxes

Regional distribution of aboveground biomass (leaf and wood)estimated from the NASA-CASA model for the early 1990s

g C m-2

Source: Potter et al., 2001, Atmos. Environ.

LBA Contributions and HypothesesAboveground carbon pools

Potter, C.; Genovese, V.B.; Klooster, S.; Bobo, M. & Torregrosa, A. 2001. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region. Atmospheric Environment, 35: 1773-1781.

Biomass

(Mg DW ha-1

)

Non TF areas

200 - 250

250 - 270

270 - 275

275 - 280

280 - 285

285 - 290

290 - 295

295 - 300

300 - 305

305 - 310

310 - 315

315 - 320

320 - 325

325 - 330

330 - 335

335 - 340

340 - 350

350 +

500

Kilometers k500

KilometersiWood, D., Y. Malhi, T. R. Baker et al. The regional variation of above-ground live biomass in old-growth Amazonian forests. (In press)

Total aboveground live biomass of Amazonian forests estimated to be 91-95 Pg C, based on over 200 forest plot measurements and interpolation with consideration of soil fertility effects.

Aboveground live biomass of Amazonian forests

Total aboveground live biomass of Brazilian Amazonian forests estimated to be 60 Pg C, based on ecosystem modeling (NASA-CASA) using moderate resolution (8-km) remote sensing of vegetation greenness and NPP and soil fertility effects.

Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924.

Total aboveground live biomass of Brazilian Amazonian forests estimated to be 84 Pg C, based on ecosystem modeling (CARLUC, Carbon and Land-Use Change)

g C m-2 yr-1

1983 1987

1985 1990

-500 -250 0 250 500

Foley, J.A., A. Botta, M.T. Coe, and M.H. Costa. 2002. The El Niño / Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystem and rivers of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,doi:10.1029/2002GB001872.

Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; de Carvalho, C.R.; Genovese, V.B.; Torregrosa, A.; Dungan, J.; Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. 2001. Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106: 10423-10446.

LBA Contributions and HypothesesRegional carbon fluxes

During an El Niño year, there is an anomalous source of CO2 from Amazon ecosystems, mainly due to a decreased net primary production (NPP) in the north of the basin.

During a La Niña year, there is an anomalous sink of CO2 from Amazon ecosystems, mainly due to a increased net primary production (NPP) in the north of the basin.

Total NPP is ca. 4-5 Pg C per yr. Annual NEP for the Brazilian Amazon is predicted to range from –0.4 Pg C yr -1 (net CO2 source during an El Niño year) to 0.5 Pg C yr -1 (net CO2 sink during a La Niña year), with large

interannual variability over the states of Pará, Maranhao, and Amazonas.

Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924.

Future Steps

Integration studies of aboveground carbon pools for the Amazon basin

• Reconciliation of ground-based, satellite, and ecosystem modeling estimates of standing biomass

• Assessment of significance and impacts of soil controls on biomass allocation

Integration studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin

• Validation of model predictions using Amazon tower flux data sets

• Integration of continuous land cover change maps into ecosystem modeling estimates

• Synthesis of newest satellite products for surface climate variations over time

• Assessment of significance and impacts of solar radiance changes over time