recent igbp activity olga solomina igbp vice chair
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Recent IGBP activity
Olga SolominaIGBP Vice Chair
IGBP Synthesis Book Series
FOCUS: GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE EARTH SYSTEM
New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity
IGBP is launching a second major international
synthesis of key policy-relevant areas within
global environmental-change research
Planet Under Pressure: knowledge and solutions
10 NEW TOPICS IDENTIFIED
The role of changing nutrient loads in coastal zones and the open ocean in an increased CO2 World(J. W.Erisman)
Geoengineering (L. Russell)
Global Nitrogen assessment(J.W. Erisman, J. Galloway)
New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity
New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity
Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere (R. Bradley)
Megacities and the coastal zone(T. Zhu, A. Newton)
Global environmental change and needs of least developed countries (P. Dube)
Land-use, land-cover change and climate (P. Kabat, D. Yakir)
Supporting adaptation responses to climate change (M. Stafford-Smith)
Aerosols in the Earth system(K. Law)
New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity
Future Earth-system resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing): Earth-system prediction
(D. Schimel)
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Key themes• Impacts of megacities on the coastal environment, ecosystem
goods and services, economy and welfare• Impacts of pollution on human health• Effects of global change (e.g. seal level rise) on megacities• Contributions to environmental changes at regional and global
scales• Policy/technological responses for reducing impacts• Co-benefits or cancellation of benefits of air quality
improvement and climate change mitigation• Using past and present knowledge to assess impacts of future
megacities
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Steering group Alice Newton* (University of Algarve,
Portugal; [email protected]), Bill Dennison*(University of Maryland Center for Environmetal Science; [email protected]), Jozef Pacyna* (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway; [email protected]), Ramesh Ramachandran* (Institute for Ocean Management, India; [email protected]), Eric Wolanski* (Australian Institute of Marine Science; [email protected]), Tong Zhu‡ (Peking University, China; [email protected])
*Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ); ‡International Global AtmosphericChemistry (IGAC)
Products envisaged1-3 peer-reviewed papers, book and a summary for policymakers.
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Key PartnersSeveral IGBP core projects and other Global Environmental Change programmes including the WCRP, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Council of Science Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group 2 (IPCC WG2), Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) and the European Commission. The activity will build on previous and ongoing work on this topic, for example a report by International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) report and a Fast-Track Initiative co-sponsored by IGBP and the Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR).
Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere
Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere
Key themes• The interactions and links between ice sheet decay and ocean
circulation, and the role of ocean currents on sub-ice melting• The effects of glacier recession on ecosystems (freshwater and
terrestrial) via changes in the hydrology and biogeochemistry of surface waters
• The role of permafrost thawing on atmospheric methane concentration & biogeochemistry of surface waters (& downstream effects on coastal ecosystems)
• The effects of polar & sub-polar ocean productivity on food chain dynamics with loss of sea-ice
• The increase in hazardous conditions in montane valleys from glacial lake overflow floods, due to glacier recession
• The different regional changes in sea-level, resulting from melting of ice in Antarctica versus Greenland, and consequences for coastal communities, land-use and infrastructure
• The consequences of mountain glacier recession for regional water regional water resourcesresources, and the effects on societies that rely on glacier meltwater
... impacts from the cryosphere...
Key partnersThe synthesis will engage all of IGBP’s core projects, and also complement cryosphere related projects of major international bodies such as the World Climate Research Programme (CLIC), the World Bank, the Global Water System Project, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and the International Arctic Science Committee.
Steering groupRay Bradley (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA), Martin Beniston (University of Geneva [email protected]), Olga Solomina (Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Vorosmarty (City University of New York), Mathias Vuille (The University at Albany)
Global Environment Change and Sustainable Development: Needs of Least Developed Countries
Needs of Least Developed Countries
• Assessing the potential responses to climate change and the factors that might limit such responses
• Evaluating the role of indigenous/local/traditional/ knowledge systems in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies
Key themes• Assessing the impact of climate change and climatic extremes on human health in the least developed countries
Needs of Least Developed Countries
Topic leadOpha Pauline Dube (University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana)
Key partnersThe synthesis will engage IGBP’s core projects and national committees from LDCs, as well as other global environmental change programmes, policymakers and NGOs.
Needs of Least Developed Countries
Products envisaged The activity aims to provide a coherent
synthesis of key global environmental change issues in LDCs that can be of value to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence guide policy. A variety of other audiences are expected to benefit, for example organisations involved in disaster management, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and the private sector. Diverse communications products are therefore envisaged, including articles in peer-reviewed journals and summaries for policymakers. Effective use of media briefings and the Internet will be made.
Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction
Key questions • What unintended consequences of each geoengineering scheme for
the geosphere and biosphere need to be considered, especially complex feedback processes?
• Which consequences can be quantified based on existing analogs in the current perturbed Earth system?
• Which consequences could be tested with experiments in advance of implementation?
• How should the feedback processes be incorporated in the decision-making process?
• What are the scientific uncertainties associated with each proposed geoengineering scheme?
• What is the appropriate niche for possible geoengineering approaches?
• Can some geonengineering schemes be used to address regional problems, such as Arctic ice melt?
Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction
Lynn Russell Colin Prentice (AIMES)Mark Stafford-Smith (IGBP)Oran Young (IHDP)Naomi OreskesPhil Rasch (IGAC)Ulrike LohmannMario MolinaRichard LeaitchDavid Andresen
Steering group
Key partners AIMES, IGAC, SOLAS, IHDP, WCRP, Diversitas, ESSP
Aerosols in the Earth System
Key Questions• What are the sources, sinks and
transformations of atmospheric aerosol and their precursors? How have these changed from past to present and how are they anticipated to change in the future?
• What are the interactions and impacts of aerosols on terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems? Aerosols and biogeochemical cycles.
• What is the impact of aerosols on the Earth’s radiation budget, hydrological cycle, ocean/atmospheric dynamics and climate?
• What are the potential health impacts of large-scale changes in aerosol levels, currently and in the future?
Key Partners IGAC, iLEAPS, ACPC, SOLAS, PAGES, GCP
Logistical Support Kathy Law/Sarah Doherty (IGAC), Markuu Kulmala/AnniReisel (iLEAPS).
Earth System Resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing): Earth System Prediction
Key issues
Types of earth system change, rates of change, linear, continuous, discontinuous, abrupt, including its human components.
Time dimension: understanding system components with different time constants.
Spatial dimension: connectivity, spatial linkages, teleconnections. What are the predictability characteristics of earth system components from
observations and modeling. What types of models are needed for the next generation of earth system
models? Which ones are feasible in the next decade or so? What advances in theory, process understanding, models and observations
are needed to increase the skill of earth systems predictions? What types of abrupt changes are possible in the earth system and what do
we know about their likelihood? What can we do to increase resilience to some of these changes?
The Role of Land Cover and Land Use in Modulating Climate
Key questionsWhat are the rate, magnitude and type of land corver
and land use changes (LUCC) in the pre-industrial and post-industrial era (deforestation, drying wetlands, large scale irrigation, urbanization, including LUCC scenarios until 2100)?
Which type of LUCC Climate system feedbacks are important (Energy balance, biology and biogeochemistry, AC-chemistry)?
Is there an evidence (paleo-proxy, more recent experimental, modeling) of LUCC being and important forcing agent of the climate in the past (e.g.in key monsoon regions of the World; in the Sahel, drying Florida wetlands etc.)
Can we discriminate LUCC climate forcing signal from industrial GHG-signal: What is the relative and absolute share of the LUCC forcing starting from the beginning of industrial times (~1850, Both global and regional)?
What are the plausible options to manage the future LUCC to mitigate and adapt to climate change? (Relation to geoengineering).
Global Nitrogen Assessment and a future outlook
Key questions
• What are the formation, storage, and losses of reactive nitrogen on differentscales?• What are the changes in the inadvertent impacts of the human mobilization ofnitrogen, e.g., acid rain, eutrophication of fresh and coastal waters, open oceanfertilization, oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, N20 production, etc.• What are future scenario’s for nitrogen, its benefits and effects?• How do we manage reactive nitrogen in relation to food security, energy use,human health, biodiversity, climate and ecosystems?• What are the options for nitrogen management to reduce the impacts?• What are the links between nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles?• How can our scientific understanding of multiple nitrogen effects help theregions of the world develop a more integrated approach to managing nitrogenin the environment?
Key questions
• What are the drivers, processes and effects of nutrients in large marine ecosystems, including the open ocean?
• What are the current and future mitigation options currently applied in large marine ecosystem regions?
The role of changing nutrient loads in the Ocean in an increased CO2 world
• What are the impacts of climate variability and change and its extremes?• What are the links between nutrients and carbon?• What are cost-effective policies and measures to decrease the impacts of increased nutrient cycling?
Open Science Conference 2012
Planet Under Pressure: New Knowledge, New Solutions
The three-day science conference will attract around 2500 world-leading environmental change scientists. It will be followed by a day dedicated to discussing the findings with policymakers, the public, and funders of environmental science.
Open Science Conference 2012
AUDIENCE• The global-change research community including regional networking
initiatives. The organisers are particularly keen to enable researchers from the developing world to attend the conference
• International bodies such as the United Nations Environment Programme, WHO, UNESCO, and the World Meteorological Organization
• The International Council for Science• Government departments• Environmental protection agencies• Funding agencies• Environmental charities and other non-governmental organisations• International media
IGBP Global Change Magazine