recent developments in seasonal forecasting at french nms michel déqué météo-france, toulouse
TRANSCRIPT
Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French
NMS Michel Déqué
Météo-France, Toulouse
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
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EUROSIP
7-month ensembles of 41 members Together with ECMWF and MetO Issued operationally each month Météo-France: → system3 in May 2008
– New ocean analysis– 91 levels on the vertical
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
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Winter temperature in Paris
DJF daily values of 2m temperature at 1 grid point Pdf distribution Validated against observed series at Paris-Orly for 1988-2007 Model data pre-conditioning: model climatological pdf must fit
observation pdf for each model Example: last two winters of the hindcast period
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
Winter 2005-2006
ClimatologyObservationMulti-model
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
Winter 2006-2007
ClimatologyObservationMulti-model
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
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Scores
Ranked probability scores 200 equiprobable classes Leave one out mode
Climatology: 0.0097ECMWF : 0.0105 MetO: 0.0097 Météo-France: 0.0090 Multi: 0.0088
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
Generalization to Europe
34 European capitals FP6-ENSEMBLES observation gridded dataset (25 km) Météo-France hindcasts only
Miami, 12-14 January 2009
RPS skill score (x100)