RE<<C (and IPCC Scenario Compression)

Masdar blogging competition entry

Matthew Klippenstein@EclecticLip matthew.klippenstein@gmail.com

Masdar blogging contest question

“What will be the most important technological development over the next 10 years that will have the greatest impact in reducing climate change risks?”

development: an event constituting a new stage in a changing situation. Oxford Living Dictionary

2007: Google.org launched RE<C initiative

“Renewable Energy cheaper than Coal”

2011: the breakthrough technologies approach was shut down.

http://googlepress.blogspot.ca/2007/11/googles-goal-renewable-energy-cheaper_27.htmlhttps://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/google-engineers-explain-why-they-stopped-rd-in-renewable-energy

2007: Google.org’s RE<C vision

2016: Wind and Solar now cheaper than Coal

excerpted from Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis Version 10.0, Dec 2016.

2007: Google.org’s RE<C vision

2016: Wind and Solar now cheaper than Coal

Bloomberg, Wind and Solar Are Crushing Fossil Fuels, Apr 2016.

Coal power is no longer “business-as-usual”.

For many years, renewables have been “business-as-usual”.

2007: Google.org’s RE<C vision

2016: Wind and Solar now cheaper than Coal

2026: Wind and Solar will be much cheaper than Coal

excerpted from Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis Version 10.0, Dec 2016.

Another decade of experience curve effects will magnify wind and solar’s cost advantages.

“cost declines powered by ethical ideals and entrepreneurial zeal”

First Thesis

2007: RE<C envisioned

2016: RE<C achieved

2026: RE<<C will be achieved

First Thesis

2007: RE<C envisioned

2016: RE<C achieved

2026: RE<<C will be achieved

This will push our emissions trajectory downwardsstrongly enough that...

2007: RE<C envisioned

2016: RE<C achieved

2026: RE<<C will be achieved

IPCC scenarios will begin to reflect low-coal future

Second Thesis

2007: RE<C envisioned

2016: RE<C achieved

2026: RE<<C will be achieved

IPCC scenarios will begin to reflect low-coal future → IPCC scenario compression will occur

Second Thesis

IPCC Scenario Compression - Preamble

● IPCC contributors are experts in their fields● They come from all parts of the world and the political / cultural spectrum● Their work is fairly-often and often-unfairly politicized and demonized

● IPCC models represent our best efforts to understand climate change● IPCC models are based on peer-reviewed science

● We are all subject to human frailties (bias, self-interest, etc.) ● Peer-review is the most effective way of freeing the pursuit of truth from the

distortions of those frailties● Of course, no human system is perfect, or should be expected to be

IPCC Scenario Compression - Preamble

Peer-review takes time -- scientific inquiry is inherently conservative -- so IPCC models are always somewhat out-of-date.

IPCC Scenario Compression - Preamble

Peer-review takes time -- scientific inquiry is inherently conservative -- so IPCC models are always somewhat out-of-date.

IPCC models do not factor in recent trends such as:

● Arctic sea ice death spiral

https://skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html

IPCC Scenario Compression - Preamble

Peer-review takes time -- scientific inquiry is inherently conservative -- so IPCC models are always somewhat out-of-date.

IPCC models do not factor in recent trends such as:

● Arctic sea ice death spiral

● Surging methane levels

The Guardian, Rapid rise in methane emissions in 10 years surprises scientists, 12 Dec 2016Image: Wikipedia, atmospheric methane. (Red arrow and exclamation marks by author.)

(!!)

IPCC Scenario Compression - Preamble

Peer-review takes time -- scientific inquiry is inherently conservative -- so IPCC models are always somewhat out-of-date.

IPCC models do not factor in recent trends such as:

● Arctic sea ice death spiral

● Surging methane levels

● RE<C (and soon, RE<<C)

excerpted from Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis Version 10.0, Dec 2016.

IPCC Scenario Compression

Here are IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) models

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure 3.2a

“RCP8.5 is representative of the high range of non-climate policy scenarios”.

van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M. et al. Climatic Change (2011) 109: 5.

IPCC Scenario Compression

Here are IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) models

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure 3.2a

“RCP8.5 is representative of the high range of non-climate policy scenarios”.

Good news: even without climate policy, RE<C in 2016,RE<<C in 2026,RE<<<C by 2100.

Coal use should be lower than RCP8.5 projections.

IPCC Scenario Compression

All RCP’s assume higher coal use (with or without CCS) in 2100 than 2000. This seems unlikely. RE<C today.

Besides, CCS will only add costs to coal. RE<<(C+CCS) might already be true.

From https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

All RCP’s assume higher coal use (with or without CCS) in 2100 than 2000. This seems unlikely. RE<C today.

Coal use may already be falling!

IPCC Scenario Compression

http://www.carbonbrief.org/bp-global-coal-use-fell-by-largest-recorded-margin-in-2015

IPCC Scenario Compression

All RCP’s assume higher coal use (with or without CCS) in 2100 than 2000. This seems unlikely. RE<C today.

Coal use may already be falling!

IPCC assumptions were valid at the time. Renewables were more expensive than coal, and experience curves for wind and solar weren’t widely known.

RE<C changes all of this.

From https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

Given RE<C in 2016 and RE<<C in 2026 (and RE<<<C in 2100)

the author believes that by 2026, the IPCC will focus more on lower-coal (and therefore lower-emission) RCPs.

RCP8.5 probably first to be de-emphasized. Could those researchers redirect efforts towards a zero-coal RCP?

IPCC Scenario Compression

From https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

IPCC Scenario Compression

If RE<C can prevent highest-emissions RCP scenario from coming true...

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure 3.2a

2016: given RE<C, this won’t happen

IPCC Scenario Compression

And RE<<C can reduce the likelihood of the next-highest RCP scenario...

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure 3.2a

2016: given RE<C, this won’t happen

2026: if RE<<C, maybe this won’t happen?

IPCC Scenario Compression

...over time we may see a “compression” of IPCC scenarios.

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure 3.2a

2016: given RE<C, this won’t happen

2026: if RE<<C, maybe this won’t happen?

Old range of IPCC scenarios

Compressed range of IPCC scenarios when RE<<C (or RE<<<C)

IPCC Scenario Compression

This would be encouraging - we could avoid worst-case temperature scenarios!

Adapted from IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure SPM6 (a)

XXXXX

4°C above (1986-2005) surface temp is apocalyptic.

2°C above (1986-2005) surface temp is “merely” catastrophic.

IPCC Scenario Compression

It could also cast the climate challenge in opportunity, not avoidance, terms.

Adapted from IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Figure SPM6 (a)

XXXXX

4°C above (1986-2005) surface temp is apocalyptic.

2°C above (1986-2005) surface temp is “merely” catastrophic.

That’s still far too high!Much work still to be done!

But, what a paradigm shift!

IPCC Scenario Compression

Even if IPCC Scenario Compression occurs, serious concerns remain.

We’re still on worse-than-projected trends for:

● polar ice loss ● sea level rise (Greenland, Antarctic melt not in models as of 2012) ● methane emissions● and no doubt other factors the author is unaware of,

but which are known in the climate science community

Probable Responses to IPCC Scenario Compression

Pollution doves will likely call for redoubled inaction and investments elsewhere.

“We’ve dodged a Permian-scale extinction, why spend billions to prevent a Cretaceous-scale extinction?”

Probable Responses to IPCC Scenario Compression

Pollution doves will likely call for redoubled inaction and investments elsewhere.

“We’ve dodged a Permian-scale extinction, why spend billions to prevent a Cretaceous-scale extinction?”

Climate hawks will likely call for redoubled action and investment.

“Why unlock trillions in climate wealth over a hundred years, when we can unlock it in twenty, as responsible stewards?”

Author’s expectations

I expect this presentation will:

● be greeted warily among progressives and climate activists “Is he trying to sabotage future policy action?” (no, quite the opposite)

● be embraced by conservatives and climate inactivists “Does he hate climate science or Al Gore, too?” (no, quite the opposite)

● be contentious All opinions and any errors herein, are mine

Author’s hopes

I hope this presentation and its theses can:

● persuasively argue that RE<<C and IPCC Scenario Compression will be the most important technological development in the next ten years;

● frame our clean technology successes; ● inspire positive action on cleantech and climate; ● assuage fears that we’re doomed to have the worst come to pass;● provide a generational narrative (this is our ‘moon landing’); ● affirm the power of ethical ideals and entrepreneurial zeal;

● and if possible, win the competition ( just being honest )