Reassignment Plan 2013-14 Committee

Recommendation

Monday, September 24, 20126:00 p.m.

2

TIME-LINE

Jan-Aug 2012

Committee Deliberations/

Monthly Reports to the School

Board

Aug - 2012Committee

Recommendations Presented to

the School Board

Aug – Dec 2012

Public Input/ Community Engagement

Board of Education Approval

August 2013Implementatio

n

3

The PROCESS

Michael Miller, OREd

Contiguous boundaries

Respect neighbor-

hoods

Proximity to schools

Modify feeder systems

Stay within enrollment capacities

Consider anticipated

growth

Enrollment balance

4

Challenges

Explore attendance zone scenarios for the new Rocky Mount HS

and other schools while considering Board Priorities.

Integrated Planning for School And Community (IPSAC)

Data-driven and policy-based model for forecasting school enrollment and determining the optimal locations for new schools and attendance boundaries.

Forecasting Land Use Studies Out-of-Capacity Analysis Attendance Boundary Optimization School Site Optimization

5

What is an Optimal Scenario?

Operations Research techniques solve large-scale optimization problems involving many variables and constraints.

The driving variable in the optimization algorithm is total distance traveled by students to school. The solutions called scenarios generated by these OR techniques are optimal in the following way:the system-wide student travel distance is

minimized while satisfying constraints such as building capacity and demographic balance

6

IPSAC – Methodology

Policy

Data

Optimal Scenario

7

IPSAC – Methodology

OUTCOMES:Addresses utilization concernsReduces system-wide student

travel distanceContiguous attendance zonesImpacts large number of childrenImpacts student balance metricsDoes not improve feeder pattern

8

Proximity + Utilization

OUTCOMES:Lessens reassignment impactBetter balances student metricsBetter aligns feeder patternsContiguous attendance zonesAddresses many utilization

concerns

9

Impact + Metrics

10

IPSAC – Methodology

Scenario Review & RevisionOREd review of optimal scenarios

Transportation issuesFeeder pattern considerationReassignment impact

General Committee requests for additional optimal scenarios (Two requests made and presented)

Individual Committee member requests for scenario revisions (Two requests made and presented)

Free/Reduced Lunch – percentage of impacted population eligible for Free or Reduced Lunch . Data supplied in aggregate form by NRMPS, calculated across K-12.

Academic Proficiency – percentage of impacted population scoring Proficient in BOTH Reading and Math. 2010 testing data supplied by NRMPS, calculated across 2011-12 grades 4-9.

Minority – percentage of non-white impacted population . Data obtained from NCWISE download, calculated by level (E/M/H)

Data represented in aggregate form only as percentage of school population.

11

Student Balance Metrics

Metrics measure current student demographics by residence.

Metrics are used as planning tool for demographic balance.

Metrics are not intended as a forecast of future school demographics/performance.

12

Student Balance Metrics

High School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended

(See data tables in handouts.)

Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash

Student Count CURRENT 1232 1204 1130 1232

Student Count RECOMMEND 1116 1234 1391 1057

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

9-12 Student Count

Statistics based on residence (2011 geocode).Does not measure impact of special programs such as IB.

Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash

Utilization CURRENT 1.07130434782609 1.04695652173913 0.81294964028777 1.15355805243446

Utilization RECOMMEND 0.970434782608696 1.07304347826087 1.00071942446043 0.989700374531835

10%30%50%70%90%

110%130%

Utilization

Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash

Minority (9-12) CUR-RENT

0.667207792207792 0.690199335548173 0.835398230088496 0.513798701298701

Minority (9-12) REC-OMMEND

0.629928315412186 0.556726094003242 0.831056793673616 0.500473036896878

5%

25%

45%

65%

85%

Minority %

Statistics based on residence (2011 geocode).Does not measure impact of special programs such as IB.

Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash

FRL (K-12) CUR-RENT

0.666460829493088 0.651086556169429 0.718038674033149 0.64117389298893

FRL (K-12) REC-OMMEND

0.653429541595926 0.5733342154009 0.75704163941574 0.66889689578714

5%

25%

45%

65%

Free/Reduced Lunch %

Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash

PROF (3-8) CUR-RENT

0.597285067873303 0.614014933946008 0.530638029058749 0.631374453618261

PROF (3-8) REC-OMMEND

0.572347266881029 0.687109596819989 0.515570934256055 0.624854819976771

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%Academic Proficiency %

Middle School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended

Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)

Student Count CURRENT 729 633 433 910 1099 0

Student Count RECOM-MEND

488 614 353 890 946 513

100

300

500

700

900

1100

6-8 Student Count

(See data tables in handouts.)

Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)

Utilization CURRENT

0.881499395405079

0.944776119402985

0.77737881508079

1.07058823529412

1.29294117647059

0

Utilization RECOM-MEND

0.590084643288996

0.916417910447761

0.633752244165171

1.04705882352941

1.11294117647059

0.684

10%

50%

90%

130%

Utilization

Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)

Minority (6-8) CURRENT

0.781893004115226

0.669826224328594

0.877598152424942

0.585714285714286

0.51410373066424

0

Minority (6-8) RECOM-MEND

0.708418891170431

0.495207667731629

0.980169971671388

0.563758389261745

0.53755364806867

0.91015625

10%

50%

90%

Minority %

Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)

FRL (K-12) CUR-RENT

0.728409448818898

0.679363699582754

0.7765 0.581846153846154

0.64117389298893

0

FRL (K-12) REC-OMMEND

0.661940850277264

0.544407753050969

0.910032175032175

0.5733342154009 0.66889689578714

0.817447869446963

5%25%45%65%85%

Free/Reduced Lunch %

Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)

CURRENT 0.511127063890883

0.541571319603356

0.551357733175915

0.685584562996595

0.631374453618261

0

RECOM-MEND

0.517730496453901

0.676159479251424

0.421965317919075

0.687109596819989

0.624854819976771

0.486238532110092

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Academic Proficiency %

Elementary School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended

Bailey Baskerville

Benv-enue

Cedar Grove

Coop-ers

Johnson MB Hub-bard

Middle-sex

Nash-ville

Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek

Spring Hope

Willi-ford

Win-stead/Engle-wood

CUR-RENT

620 341 743 221 624 475 492 340 709 279 583 550 437 1081

REC-OM-MEND

620 372 680 221 624 475 492 340 709 279 589 550 437 1107

100300500700900

1100

K-5 Student Count

(See data tables in handouts.)

Bailey Baskerville

Benv-enue

Cedar Grove

Coop-ers

Johnson MB Hub-bard

Middle-sex

Nash-ville

Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek

Spring Hope

Willi-ford

Win-stead/Engle-wood

CURRENT

0.933734939759036

0.798594847775176

1.11227544910

18

0.991031390134529

1.03826955074

875

0.826086956521739

0.9609375

0.813397129186603

1.03958944281

525

0.897106109324759

0.719753086419753

1.01476014760

148

0.752151462994837

0.954104148278906

RECOMMEND

0.933734939759036

0.871194379391101

1.01796407185

629

0.991031390134529

1.03826955074

875

0.826086956521739

0.9609375

0.813397129186603

1.03958944281

525

0.897106109324759

0.727160493827161

1.01476014760

148

0.752151462994837

0.977052074139453

10%

50%

90%

Utilization

Bailey Baskerville

Benv-enue

Cedar Grove

Coop-ers

Johnson MB Hub-bard

Middle-sex

Nash-ville

Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek

Spring Hope

Willi-ford

Win-stead/Engle-wood

CURRENT

0.654838709677419

0.982404692082112

0.737550471063257

0.520361990950226

0.307692307692308

0.995789473684211

0.780487804878049

0.588235294117647

0.493653032440056

0.989247311827957

0.437392795883362

0.514545454545455

0.965675057208238

0.640148011100833

RECOMMEND

0.654838709677419

0.967741935483871

0.739705882352941

0.520361990950226

0.307692307692308

0.995789473684211

0.780487804878049

0.588235294117647

0.493653032440056

0.989247311827957

0.432937181663837

0.514545454545455

0.965675057208238

0.643179765130985

10%

50%

90%

Minority %

Bailey Baskerville

Benv-enue

Cedar Grove

Coop-ers

Johnson MB Hub-bard

Middle-sex

Nash-ville

Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek

Spring Hope

Willi-ford

Win-stead/Engle-wood

CURRENT

0.709450714823175

0.936566265060241

0.684589625738674

0.728067729083666

0.467428797468355

0.909124378109453

0.703311320754717

0.702206266318538

0.520635430038511

0.907741433021807

0.456706210746685

0.650129659643436

0.922113163972286

0.593824966681475

RECOMMEND

0.709450714823175

0.921265474552957

0.684186725018235

0.728067729083666

0.467428797468355

0.909124378109453

0.703311320754717

0.702206266318538

0.520635430038511

0.907741433021807

0.457730103806228

0.650129659643436

0.922113163972286

0.595562714776632

5%

35%

65%

95%

Free/Reduced Lunch %

Bailey Baskerville

Benv-enue

Cedar Grove

Coop-ers

Johnson MB Hub-bard

Middle-sex

Nash-ville

Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek

Spring Hope

Willi-ford

Win-stead/Engle-wood

CURRENT

0.618270799347471

0.450657894736842

0.629283489096573

0.731707317073171

0.729636048526863

0.377232142857143

0.575692963752665

0.613079019073569

0.705801104972376

0.348122866894198

0.721815519765739

0.601973684210526

0.348448687350835

0.606741573033708

RECOMMEND

0.618270799347471

0.453172205438066

0.635578583765112

0.731707317073171

0.729636048526863

0.377232142857143

0.575692963752665

0.613079019073569

0.705801104972376

0.348122866894198

0.722383720930233

0.601973684210526

0.348448687350835

0.606930693069307

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%Academic Proficiency %

Summary: Recommended ScenarioMaximum Utilization: 111% (SNMS, currently

127%)

Minimum Utilization: 59% (Edwards MS, currently 88%)

Maximum MS > HS feeder: 2 (Edwards and New MS)

Maximum ES > MS feeder: 4 (Benvenue ES)

Total students reassigned: 2089Elem: 63 (1 Elem Schools impacted)Mid: 1281 (5 Mid Schools impacted, 513 to new MS)High: 745 (3 High Schools impacted)