reassessing the eu monetary and fiscal framework
TRANSCRIPT
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“Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework:
a challenge for the Euro Area, a challenge for the ADEMU Horizon 2020 Project”
Ramon Marimon ADEMU Project Scienti4ic Coordinator,
European University Institute & UPF – Barcelona GSE
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ADEMU 4
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1. The Fiscal Compact – Eco. stab. & limiting redistribution with 4iscal restraint?
2. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – As a crisis prevention or risk sharing mechanism?
3. The European Banking Union (EBU) – Financial stab. & breaking the link private–sovereign debt?
4. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) – Peer or real pressure, to coordinate structural reforms, 4iscal policies and prevent macroeconomic imbalances?
+ The European Central Bank (ECB) – Providing ‘4iring power’ to ESM & control to EBU?
The strength of the Euro Area: �The ECB & 4 new pieces since 2010
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The strength of the ECB through the Euro crisis: �Spreads in the EA & Draghi’s “whatever it takes”
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The weakness of our deeper recessions�(“Five Presidents’ Report: Analytical Note ”, February 2015)
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The weakness of moving apart�(“European Economic Snapshot”, T. Cooley et al., Sept. 2015)
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The weakness of the Human Capital divide: �Labour productivity in the EA (EU 28 = 100)
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1. The Fiscal Compact – Where is the credibility test?
2. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – What about the risk sharing mechanism?
3. The European Banking Union (EBU) – Almost there… but no need for a 4iscal backup?
4. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) – Too much to be handled with just peer pressure?
+ The European Central Bank (ECB) – Monetary and Fiscal policy without...
The weakness of the Euro Area: �The ECB & 4 immature and incomplete pieces
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the missing body?
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These are questions on the table of
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Eurogroup
European Council Council of the European Union
The Eurogroup is an informal body where the ministers of the euro area member states discuss matters relating to their shared responsibilities related to the euro.
Its main task is to ensure close coordination of economic policies among the euro area member states. It also aims to promote conditions for stronger economic growth.
the informal body:
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the body:
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them talking:
5 Presidents reporting:
…et al.
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These are questions that require � and stimulate research
• On how 4iscal and monetary policies interact, and should interact, in a heterogeneous Fiscal and Monetary Union.
• On how to achieve debt sustainability, risk-‐sharing and 4inancial stability.
• On the political economy, and the legal requirements, of designing credible policies and institutions.
• On how to avoid negative spillovers and build trust.
• On how to learn from past crises and jointly thrive.
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hFp://ademu-‐project.eu
Horizon 2020 The Framework Programme for Research and InnovaAon
policy oriented basic research, as the one of
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The consortium
List of Participants:
Participant No Participant Organisation name Country
1 (Coordinator) European University Institute (EUI) Italy 2 University of Cambridge (CAM) UK
3 University of Bonn, (BGSE) Germany 4 Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) France
5 University College London (UCL) UK 6 Catholic University of Portugal (CUP) Portugal
7 Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (BcnGSE) Spain 8 Charles University in Prague (CERGE) Czech Republic
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The structure
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The people
• 50 researchers in the project • PhD students getting involved – ADEMU Working Groups (e.g. EUI with 18 PhD res.)
• 35 Associate Researchers…
• Support team: – Project manager: Margherita Fabbri – Project 4inance: Serena Scarcelli – Dissemination team: Clara Kirchner & Sarah Grosvenor
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The ADEMU Advisory Committee
• Thomas F. Cooley (NYU – Stern) [Chair] • Sir Charles Bean (LSE) • José Manuel Campa (IESE & Grupo Santander) • Jean-‐Pierre Danthine (Swiss National Bank) • Lars Peter Feld (Walter Eucken Institut & University of Freiburg)
• Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School) • Thomas J. Sargent (New York University) • René Smits (University of Amsterdam)
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The research Work Packages
1. Long-‐term sustainability of a monetary and fiscal union
2. StabilisaAon policy in currency unions
3. Macroeconomic and financial imbalances and spillovers
4. Policy ImplementaAon
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The horizon
Final Conference: The state of the Van Rompuy roadmap in 2018
Florence, March 2018 Hosted by the European University Institute