Scenarios for REALU in Peru

Glenn Hyman and William Vivanco

Content

• Background

• Carbon stocks

• Land use

• Rights and governance

• Scenarios

• Multi-stakeholder negotiation

72 million hectares

of natural forests

Natural forest 72 million ha

Coast 2,8 million ha

Highlands 1,8 million haTropical forest 67,2 million ha

Areas for plantation 10 million ha

Total population 25 million

Total surface 1.29 million km2

2.9 ha/per

capita

Peru overview

R.D.del Congo

Fuente: FAO, 2001

(3, 856 millones de ha)

64.1

69.8

105.0

135.2

158.1

163.5

226.0

244.6

532.5

851.4

71.9

India

Angola

Perú

Indonesia

Australia

China

EE.UU.

Canadá

Brasil

Rusia

9th

WORLD SURFACE IN NATURAL FOREST

(2000)

Peru occupies the ninth place in the world

MAIN COUNTRIES WITH HIGH BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY IN THE World

ECUADOR 297ZAIRE 216INDIA 1200INDIA 350

PERU 365CHINA 261BOLIVIA 1250COLOMBIA 359

COLOMBIA 383INDONESIA 270VENEZUELA 1275CHINA 394

INDIA 453MEXICO 282ECUADOR 1447ZAIRE 409

BRASIL 467PERU 332INDONESIA 1519BRASIL 428

INDONESIA 600ECUADOR 358BRASIL 1622MEXICO 449

AUSTRALIA 686COLOMBIA 407COLOMBIA 1721PERU 460

MEXICO 717BRASIL 516PERU 1800INDONESIA 515

REPTILESANFIBIOSAVESMAMIFEROS

1º place in birds.

2º place in mammals.

2º place lugar in fishes.

4º place in anfibians.

7º place in reptiles.

Peru has 25000 especies de plantas (30% are

endémic species)

PERÚ

Megadiverse

country

Forest plantations

0.7 Mill Ha

Natural forest for harvest

24.0 mill. Ha

Forest for Protectión of River basin

4.0 Mill Ha

Indigenous people forest)

18.0 Mill Ha

Natural Protected Areas (ANP).

19.0 Mill. Ha

Forest classification

Local forest (colonizer)

6,0 Mill. Ha

Deforestatión

160,000 ha /year

- Agriculture and other use90% of deforestation for migratory agriculture and use as firewood.

- Ilegal loggingMainly in native comunities

Firewood for agriculture

Main Problems related with

Forest Management

Peru deforestation projections

YearForest

(Sq.Km) Deforested (Sq.Km)Annual rate of

change (%) % Deforested

2001 661,562.37 65,348.77 0 0.10

2005 656,625.64 70,285.51 1.51 0.11

2010 649,802.15 77,108.99 1.94 0.12

2015 642,419.04 84,492.11 1.91 0.13

2020 634,524.26 92,386.89 1.87 0.15

2025 626,277.71 100,633.43 1.79 0.16

2030 617,651.42 109,259.72 1.71 0.18

2035 608,685.35 118,225.79 1.64 0.19

2040 599,379.51 127,531.64 1.57 0.21

2045 589,765.87 137,145.28 1.51 0.23

2050 579,904.39 147,006.75 1.44 0.25

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

% Forested

AMAZON INITIATIVE MAP SERVER (IAViewer © 2010)Peru - Estimated Future Deforestation (2001 - 2030)

http://www.iamazonica.org.br/IAViewer - Deforestation ModuleSource: Modeling conservation in the Amazon basin. © G&B Moore Foundation / LBA SIMAmazonia Project, led by Soares-Filho B. S. et al. 2006.

Social Impacts

Extreme rural poverty

of surrounding

communities

Objective :

To promote sustainable forest

management

Main Work area:

EEA Pucallpa - Ucayali

SEEA San Bernardo – Madre de

Dios

EEA San Roque – Loreto

EEA El Porvenir – San Martin

INIA: AMAZON JOBS

Peruvian Amazon

Main INIA Actions on Climate Change

1. Development of agroforestry technologies

2. Transfer technology to local farmers

3. Installation of germplasm banks for forest species

4. Promotion of the use of Forest species with

Economic potential

5. Studies on carbon stocks in different land use

types

REALU

Carbon stock dynamics

Deforestation and degradation "... a problem of terminology??

Defo

resta

tio

n

Degradation

1. A review of definitions on forests,

deforestation and degradation

(M.Rugnitz Tito and Julio Ugarte)

Trees in non-forest areas

C-stock assessment

Global map (Zomer et al. 2009) overlaid onAguaytia forest map

Manual for measuring

carbon stocks on small

farms: towards improved

accounting for REALU

Land use, livelihoods

Pucallpa Land Use Workshop: developing the land use legend

First productsRecent, coherent, distortion reduced imagery

Raw ETM+ data Uncorrected ETM+ Mosaic

*Sensor gaps closed *cloud cover reduced *atmospheric errors minimized

Corrected ETM+ Mosaic

First resultsComparison between visual and digital image

classification

Land cover map based onvisual interpretation

Image Mosaic (2009-2010)

Land cover map based ondigital classification

• maps available in Google Maps

• Validations points linked with Google Fusion tables

• platforms for participation in land use assessment

and validation

Photos and GPS points

Taken in the field

Field work: making and validating maps

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

?

Rights, governance, control over external drivers

Training REALU Workshop : Value Chains REDD 2009

Map REDD actors, emphasizing the institutions

Ucayali

Results: Perceptions on the distribution of REDD benefits in Ucayali

Fuente: Velarde, SJ. 2009.

Líneas de base claras

The State’s eminent domain on natural resources

The State’s “eminent domain” means that the State has eminent control

over natural resources which are National Patrimony. The State does

not own natural resources, but exercise eminent domain on them, and

thus on the goods and products offered by them until they are

granted as concession or other schemes, in accordance with the law. The

State is responsible for the resources management on behalf of the

Nation. The State is responsible for ensuring that such use is conducted

under the provisions of the relevant legislation. The state cannot "trade"

the natural resources, but it may grant rights to third parties for their

sustainable use according to pertinent law.

2. A legal review of access to resources, tenure and possible REDD related conflicts in

Peru (JL Capella, M Sandoval, S Velarde)

Scenarios

Accessibility Travel time

Digital Elevation Model

Annual Precipitation

Geomorphology

Soils

Land change modeling Deforestation = f (x * y * z……)

EL COSTO DE

OPORTUNIDAD DE

EVITAR LAS EMISIONES

PRODUCIDAS

POR LA DEFORESTACIÓN¿Cuánto valen las oportunidades

económicas

que los agricultores dejarían de

aprovechar

si es que redujeran las emisiones

producidas por la deforestación?

Negotiation

Outcomes:

+ Increased national partners capacity about REDD

and carbon accounting.

+ Increased awareness of national partners on the

differences between deforestation and degradation

+ Increased awareness about the importance of trees

on farms for carbon accounting in the Peruvian

Andean-Amazon

+ Testing methods for landscape carbon accounting in

the Amazon.

Current trajectory

High carbon stockdevelopment pathway

Photos courtesy of Valentina