realignment: a first look at statewide trends
DESCRIPTION
Realignment: A First Look at Statewide Trends. Chief Michael Daly Marin County Probation Kevin O’Connell, Analyst, CPOC. CPOC Realignment Research Priorities. Identify aggregate data elements that all 58 counties can track and submit from October 1, 2011 Focused on: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Realignment: A First Look at Statewide
TrendsChief Michael Daly
Marin County ProbationKevin O’Connell,
Analyst, CPOC
Identify aggregate data elements that all 58 counties can track and submit from October 1, 2011
Focused on:◦ Movement of Post Release Community
Supervision (PRCS) population back to counties◦ Sentencing of 1170h (non3, non-non-non, local
prison) offenders Disseminate in useful formats Disseminate in a timely way
CPOC Realignment Research Priorities
Receive Data from counties
and run statistical
quality control
Send data back to
counties for quality control
Send final data report to Chiefs of Probation
Make data publicly
available via dashboards and reports
CPOC Quarterly Realignment Data Collection Process
Per 100,000 people, where are PRCS going?
Per 100,000 people, where are 1170h sentences occurring?
PRCS offenders released PRCS warrant-before appearance Active PRCS offenders Active PRCS warrant-after appearance at
probation
PRCS Measures
Bay Central North Sacramento South80%85%90%95%
100%105%110%
94%
108%
100%
92%
101%
% of PRCS Estimates
PRCS Releases as of March 2012 99% of expected PRCS cases statewide 7% of PRCS failed to appear within 72
hours
~23,000 active offenders as of March 31 4% of active PRCS cases are wanted on
warrants
Active PRCS Population Status
South
Central
Sacramento
Bay
North
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
3%
4%
5%
7%
9%
% of Active Cases on Warrant
Statewide average of 4%
1170h (a) jail only sentences 1170h (b) split sentences 1170h (b) no jail sentences Active 1170 (b) offenders
1170h Measures
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-120%
50%
100%
150%
% of Monthly 1170h Estimates, Cumulative
Actual vs. Estimated 1170h Sentences• ~15,000 1170h sentences as of March 31• 34% above initial estimates
October NovemberDecember January February March0500
10001500200025003000 2484
20731790 1798
1526 1676
456 511 494 525 524 551
1170h Jail Only 1170h Split Sentence
1170h Sentences Statewide • 22% of 1170h sentences were split sentences• 29% of split sentences have started mandatory
supervision and are out of custody
PRCS Closures (6-12months)◦ How many PRCS offenders were closed
PRCS Closures (1 year)◦ How many PRCS cases were closed at 1 year by
law as they had no return to custody Recidivism
◦ Of those terminated, how many had a felony conviction during supervision
PRCS Closures after more than 18 months◦ PRCS offenders who spent more than 18 months
on local supervision
Outcome Measures
http://cpoc.org/php/realign/dashboardinfo/CPOCbrief11.pdf
http://www.cpoc.org/php/realign/dashboardinfo/dashboard.swf
Updated data from 9 months don’t show significant changes from 6months at first glance
Too early to draw systematic or county level conclusions
Data has to drive the discussion All CCP partners should submit data to the
conversation Evidence based programming and practices
needs to be the benchmark
In Conclusion