real-time pbl analysis system using profilers observations
TRANSCRIPT
TheNYS EarlyWarningWeatherDetectionSystem
Real-timePBLanalysissystemusingprofilersobservationsfromTheNewYorkStateMesonet
SarahLuUniversityatAlbany
StateUniversityofNewYork
TheNYS EarlyWarningWeatherDetectionSystem
Outline
• Background• Systemdescriptionand
progress• Enhancedsites• PBLPilotwithNCEP
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• ScarcityofweatherobservationsinNY• Long-termtrendsofheavierrainfall• Recenthistoryofveryexpensivehigh-impactevents• Stateeconomyisespeciallysensitivetoweather• Valuableforemergencymanagement,utilities,ground
transportation(roads,rail),aviation,agriculture,etc.
WhyaMesonetinNewYork?
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27AutomatedSurfaceObservingStations(ASOS)
WhyaMesonetinNewYork?
SomeGapsinRadarCoverage
NWS&EmergencyManagersareoftenBlind
ScarcityofweatherobservationsinNY
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WhyaMesonetinNewYork?
StateEconomicSensitivitytoWeatherVariabilitybyGSP
Otherstateshaverealizedtheeconomicvalue
*Lazo etal.,2011(BAMS)
Stateeconomyisespeciallysensitivetoweather
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BriefOverview
• Comprisedof125stations,including:– Soilmoisture/temperatureat3depths– Camera(stillimages)– 20snowsites– 17profiler(“enhanced”)sites– 17fluxsites
• NYSMesonet awarded1April2014
• Datacollected,quality-controlled,anddisseminatedevery5min
• Have50+sitesnowoperational
• All125sitesoperationalby31December2016
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TheNYS EarlyWarningWeatherDetectionSystem
• 125Sites
• Spaced~19milesapart
• Reportsevery5minutes
125StandardSites20SnowSites17EnhancedSites
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SomeSiteSelectionConsiderations
• WMOstandards:– Generallyflatterrain– Noobstructions(notrees,pavement)within300ft
• Generalnetworkconfigurationwith19milespacing• Arearepresentativeness– valley,highterrain,crops,forests
• NWSinput– areaspronetoflooding;gapsinobservations
• FEMAguidelines:– Nofloodzones,nowetlands– Nohistoricalproperty– Noarchaeologicallysensitiveareas
• Requirea33’x33’area
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StandardObservations• Precipitation• Temperature• Humidity• WindSpeedandDirection• SolarRadiation• BarometricPressure• SoilTemperature(5,25,50cm)• SoilMoisture(5,25,50cm)• SitePhotos
StandardSite
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StandardObservations• Precipitation• Temperature• Humidity• WindSpeedandDirection• SolarRadiation• BarometricPressure• SoilTemperature(5,25,50cm)• SoilMoisture(5,25,50cm)• SitePhotos
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LIDARs• Verticalwindprofilesupto3kmAGL• SelectedRNRG/Leosphere 100S
MicrowaveRadiometers• Verticaltemperatureandmoisture
profilesupto10kmAGL• SelectedRadiometrics MP-3000A
SunPhotometer(MMR/SSI)• Multi-scanMulti-channelRadiometer• Shadowband SkyImager• Designed/builtbyMesonet/ASRC
17EnhancedStationLocatedwithin500mofStandardSite
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OutputfromEnhanced/Standarddata:§ Clearsky/cloudclassification--- skycondition§ Accurateradiation(spectral,direct/diffuse)§ Profiles:Temp.,RH,Wind,andaerosols§ PBLheight,cloudbaseheight,LCL§ Aerosols:AOD&profile,SSA,AngstromCoefficient§ Clouds:cloudfraction,COD,Effectiveradius§ Forecastindices(CAPE,k,etc)
Complexprocess:§ Characterizemeasurement,retrievaluncertainties§ Developrobustretrievalalgorithms§ Productsdevelopedfromsynergisticretrieval/analysisapproach(multiplesensors)
EnhancedStation
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Enhanced(Profiler) Sites
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Wareetal2014
Profilerdataofatmospherictemperatureandstability
WeatherballoonderivedCAPEvaluefrom12ZonJune29thevolvedfromnearzeroto3,000J/kginjustacoupleofhoursdemonstratingtheadvantageofcontinuousprofiling
Novakovskaia etal2013
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TheimpactofimprovedboundarylayeronCMAQozoneforecasts
• Comparisonofdaily8hrmaxozonepredictionfromtheNAM-CMAQwiththeoperationalCB-IVchemicalmechanismtoobservationsfromthemonitoringnetworks(e.g.,EPAAIRNow,coloredcircles,ppb)using– a)theCMAQdefaultderivedPBLheight– b)theRTMAPBLheightvalidAugust10,
2010• Theozonesimulationshowsimprovement
overtheBaltimore-WashingtonurbancorridorwhenusingthePBLanalysis.
a)
b)
JeffMcQueen
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AerosolBackscatterProfilefrom
Lidar
Hicksetal(2015)HybridRetrieval
PBLHeight(Err,WTC,LCL)
ConsensusPBLfrommultiple
sensors
PBLAnalysis/RTMA
Exampleofproduct(PBL)developedfrommultiplesensorsandalgorithms
MWRP(stability)
SurfaceObs
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DevelopingunifiedPBLanalysissystem-- ASRCforNYSandNCEPCONUS
LeverageprototypePBLanalysisestablishedbyNOAA-NASA-HowardROSESprojectin2007(McQueen)
Objectives:• DevelopnearrealtimePBLproductsbyblendingmodelestimatesandmulti-
platformprofileobservations(aircrafts,radiosonde,andNYSmesonet).• DemonstrateuseofNYSmesonet verticalprofilesforreal-timePBLanalysis.• DemonstratetheimpactofPBLanalysisonairquality/dispersionmodeling.
UAlbany/ASRC-NCEPCollaborationonReal-Time PBLAnalysisStudy
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Real-timePBLanalysissystemusingmulti-platformprofileobservations
• DerivationofPBLheightsfromthefollowingobservationdata:– Radiosondes,aircraftprofiles,andNYS
mesonet lidar profiles– optionaldata:MPLNETlidars,ceilometer,
andCALIPSO,ifresourceisavailable• Evaluationofmodel1st guessusedforRTMA:
– NAM– RAP– HRRR
• AssimilationofPBLheightsintoReal-TimeMesoscaleAnalysis(RTMA),whichis2DVARGridpoint StatisticalInterpolation(GSI)analysissystem
• FinalproductwillbePBLheightanalysis(2.5kmresolution,hourly)
RTMA Analysis
Profileobservations
Modelguess(NAM,RAP,HRRR)
Dispersion/airqualitymodelapplication
+1hr
Repeataspreviouscycle
CycleN CycleN+1
ASRC-NCEPrealtimePBLanalysissystem
BoundaryLayerAnalysis
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2DVARGSI
PBLAnalysis2.5km,hourly
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PBLheightsfromNAMmodelandaircraftobservations
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PBLheightdefinedusingradiosondeandaircraft(Dallas-FortWorthairport)
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Example:definedPBLheightreasonablywithRi no.
Ri no:0.25
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QUESTIONS,THOUGHTS,COMMENTS
JerryBrotzge,[email protected]
ChrisThorncroft,PhDChair,UAlbany [email protected]
Everette Joseph,PhDDirector,UAlbany [email protected]