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REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018 NORTHERN IRELAND

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Page 1: REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK - BUSINESSFIRST · Our local property market should be well placed for future investment once the additional £1 billion funding for Northern ... yields,

REAL ESTATE MARKET

OUTLOOK

2 0 1 8 N O R T H E R N I R E L A N D

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© 2018 CBRE Limited

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018 © 2018 CBRE Limited

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

2018 EXPECTED TRENDS2018 EXPECTED TRENDS

WELCOME TO THE CBRE NORTHERN IRELAND OUTLOOK FOR 2018

In early 2017 we predicted that the year

ahead would be filled with political

uncertainties at home and abroad. As

we look forward into 2018, not a lot has

changed. A continued lack of a stable

government at Stormont and Brexit

uncertainties have had a negative

impact on the local economy and

should our local government stalemate

persist, we expect this sentiment will feed into both the

commercial and residential property markets during 2018.

Having said that, the commercial property market in 2017

proved to be one of the more resilient sectors, with investment

volumes at £316 million, 30% higher than 2016. The office

sector performed well with a number of key transactions

underpinning rents at £20.00 per sq ft and a positive outlook for

further growth predicted for 2018.

We have witnessed cranes on the Belfast skyline, with several

new builds in the hotel and student housing sectors. The office

sector saw new stock being delivered at City Quays 2. City centre

development in the office sector has, to date, been

predominantly refurbishment of existing buildings.

Our local property market should be well placed for future

investment once the additional £1 billion funding for Northern

Ireland, secured as part of the Conservative/DUP deal,

is released.

In addition, the launch of the £100 million Northern Ireland

Investment Fund, targeted at stimulating development

throughout Northern Ireland and the new Belfast City Centre

Investment Fund, targeted at stimulating further Grade A office

development in the city centre will provide welcome forms of

additional funding to the property sector. This additional

funding should serve to re-fuel demand for real estate across

Northern Ireland.

Our recently published 2018 UK CBRE Market Outlook

highlighted many key themes, summarised on pages 4 & 5,

all relevant in a Northern Ireland context.

We also believe the unique position of Belfast as a pivotal city

between Dublin, London and Europe should begin to realise

greater interest from real estate investment funds. Hopefully,

increased clarity around the border and as Brexit moves into the

next phase of negotiations, the region’s position should be

increasingly positive.

Looking forward into 2018, the continued future growth of the

commercial property market is, however, heavily reliant on a

fully functional local government being put in place so that

Northern Ireland can take advantage of its unique position in

relation to Brexit.

Brian Lavery, Managing Director, Belfast

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

2018 EXPECTED TRENDS2018 EXPECTED TRENDS

PAGE 8Investment Outlook

Rebounding strongly from the uncertainty in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, the UK investment market has seen a surge in transaction volumes. Total returns have been similarly buoyant, powered by a thriving industrial sector. Although we forecast a weaker economic outlook, we expect that solid income-driven performance over the medium term, combined with strong demand for property exposure on both the debt and equity side, will ensure investment volumes remain robust. We anticipate Northern Ireland will experience similar investment volumes for 2018.

PAGE 6Economic Outlook

The Northern Ireland commercial property market continues to be resilient, however the continued lack of a stable Government at Stormont has already had a negative impact on the local economy and should the stalemate persist, we expect this sentiment will feed into both the commercial and residential property markets. The Bank of England has increased interest rates by 25 bps and there is still little clarity on the broader Brexit issues affecting the province.

PAGE 12Offices Outlook

The outlook for UK office markets in 2018 can be characterised as challenging. Our prognosis reflects the fortunes of the UK economy which is slowing and continues to feel the effects of Brexit-related uncertainty. Rental growth will vary across the country, with stable or small increases in the large regional markets, but small declines in parts of Central London. Low levels of availability and relatively strong demand for the best Grade A space will moderate any rental falls. Investment volumes will be resilient. Northern Ireland continues to attract FDI occupiers and the continued lack of supply should result in further office rental growth.

PAGE 14Industrial & Logistics Outlook

Industrial and logistics property put in a star performance in 2017, underpinned by very strong demand and extensive supply constraints. These factors seem likely to continue into 2018. New transport technologies will continue to gain credibility, though it may be tricky to work out which technologies will be so widely adopted as to be labelled ‘transformational’. Change in the retail sector will continue to affect industrial and logistics property. These structural factors have overwhelmed Brexit as an influence on the sector so far, and 2018 will begin to offer more certainty once EU trade talks get underway. Contrary to other regions Northern Ireland’s industrial and logistics sector continues to be dominated by owner occupiers with very limited speculative development.

PAGE 16Hotels Outlook

Hotels performed well in 2017 and we expect this to continue into 2018. Referendum-induced currency and inflation effects have been both a benefit and burden for hotels, and the sector’s dependence on EU workers remains a concern. Available rooms will grow at double the long-term average rate in 2018. Investment levels will remain robust, though there will be a shortage of stock available in London. 2018 will see the opening of several new hotels in Belfast including the Maldron on Brunswick Street, the Grand Central on Bedford Street and the AC Marriott Hotel at City Quays.

PAGE 18Specialist Markets Outlook

Investment in UK healthcare real estate continues to grow strongly. Prime elderly care remains the focus for investors, but breakthroughs in retirement living in 2017 suggest growth in this sector in 2018.

PAGE 10Retail Outlook

A slowdown in consumer spending will make 2018 a tough year for retailers and leisure operators. The weaker pound will provide some comfort for internationally-oriented retailers, but rents are unlikely to grow. Significant amounts of new, high-quality shopping centre space will open and some prominent mergers will continue the convenience retail revolution. Customers and retailers will further exploit new technologies, with the physical store continuing to redefine its role. In Northern Ireland, the retail sector has continued to perform well with the advantage of the current exchange rate and cross-border trade. The retail market saw a plethora of new entrants in 2017 as well as increased footprints by a number of relatively new retailers including Smiggle, Oliver Bonas, Hotel Chocolat, Søstrene Grene and Newbridge Silverware.

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The global economic environment looks

benign in 2018. Unforeseen shocks

aside, the next major international

headwind for the UK will be the cyclical

downturn expected to originate in the

US in late 2019 to 2020. Short-term

interest rates have increased four times

in the US since the end of 2015 with

more increases to come. The US

monetary policy normalisation process, and the unwinding of

quantitative easing, look likely to eventually curtail growth as it

overshoots in its effort to prevent overheating.

UK growth turned out to be rather more robust than had been

forecast immediately after the EU referendum result and UK

property returns were more positive than anticipated in 2017.

But more recently the UK has lagged European growth, with UK

GDP growth slowing from 1.8% in 2016 to an anticipated 1.5%

in 2017. Brexit-related uncertainty has clipped growth and the

fall in the pound has hit real spending power. Nominal wage

growth is currently around 2% with inflation running at just

over 3%. While early 2018 will be tough for households, they

should see Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) diminishing to 1.6%

by the end of 2018 and with it a small improvement in

wage growth.

Our UK economic forecast therefore assumes another three

years of subdued growth followed by a strong bounce back once

the Brexit-related uncertainties are resolved, bolstered by

stronger global economic growth. For Northern Ireland, some

of the weaknesses associated with consumer confidences will

be offset by the benefits of cross-border retail sales, driven by

the Euro/Sterling exchange rate. In addition, Northern Ireland

continues to attract tourists, with record numbers visiting in

2017, driving demand for hotel beds in Belfast and beyond. So

whilst the Northern Ireland economy will mirror the period of

weaker growth expected for the UK as a whole, growth will be

supported by the consumer and tourism sectors.

However, challenges remain. There has been the no functioning

executive at Stormont, thereby creating a political vacuum. Data

from Danske Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey 2017 Q3

showed that 36% of consumers saw the political uncertainty as

the largest negative impact on their confidence levels, not the

erosive impact of inflation. And whilst agreement was reached

on Brexit border issues at the end of 2017, the detail remains a

long way from being set in stone.

More widely, the level of ambiguity around the UK’s future

relationship with Europe should diminish as the year

progresses. However, Brexit-related uncertainty will be an issue

for UK property for the next three years.

Having cut its Bank rate in 2016 after the referendum result, the

Bank of England increased the rate back to 0.5% at its

November 2017 meeting. CBRE thinks this was a one-off

movement to bring the Bank rate back to the pre-referendum

level. That cut had been made to stave off a recession and, as

this didn’t occur, its reversal was always on the cards. However,

we think that long-term interest rates will be driven mostly by

international factors rather than domestic policy. International

long-term interest rates are highly correlated, so the increased

US long-term interest rates which we expect will feed through to

higher rates in the UK. This looks likely to raise real estate

yields, principally those in Central London, with yields in the

rest of the UK relatively flat over the year.

Andrew Marston, Director, UK Research,

National Offices and Industrials

Annu

al GD

P Grow

th (%

)

UK Northern Ireland3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

02012 20162013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Figure 1: GDP Growth: Weakness ahead

Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research

It would be fair to say, despite an unprecedented year in politics, both in the UK and Ireland, the economies of both countries have performed well ahead of expectations. This is particularly true for the UK, where the uncertainties of Brexit have cast a large shadow. In 2018, it will be crunch time for Brexit, and with it the UK economy faces significant challenges in the form of full employment, higher inflation and lower consumer spending.

”For Northern Ireland, some of the weaknesses associated with consumer confidences will be offset by the benefits of cross-border retail sales, driven by the Euro/Sterling exchange rate”

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

However, on a more positive note and as predicted last year,

the investment market over 2017 has seen an increase in

transaction volumes from 2016. According to our research,

a total of £316m was invested in 43 separate investment

transactions in Northern Ireland during the year. Key

transactions include the sale of CastleCourt Shopping Centre

to Wirefox for £123m; Tesco Extra, Newry sold to Investec for

£27.25m; and Great Northern Retail Park, Omagh for £9.175m.

We are anticipating the majority of transactions during 2018

will continue to emanate from financial restructuring and

investors crystallising profit following the completion of asset

management strategies. In addition, the property market

should be well placed for further future investment following

the recent agreement between the Conservatives and

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which secured an

additional £1bn in funding for Northern Ireland over the

next two years, a significant amount of which will be spent on

infrastructure projects.

The investment market has been offering both value add and

core opportunities which has seen healthy interest from a

broad spectrum of investors including; Private Equity,

Property Companies, High Net Worth Individuals and

Institutional Investors. However, with further anticipated

political and economic uncertainties primarily due to Brexit,

we envisage that investment strategies will continue to be

focused on core income driven by a reduction in appetite for

risk over the short term.

The debt market has continued to improve with more lenders

currently active in the market since the last peak in 2007. The

launch of the Council-led Belfast City Centre Investment Fund,

specifically targeted at stimulating further Grade A office

development in the city centre, plus the £100m Northern

Ireland Investment Fund will provide welcome forms of

additional funding to the property sector throughout 2018.

Furthermore, the £1bn Belfast City Region Deal will offer new

possibilities to re-fuel demand for real estate across

Northern Ireland.

We expect that yields across all sectors in Northern Ireland will

remain relatively stable over the next 12 months. Northern

Ireland Investor activity over the short to medium term will be

driven by the low cost of debt, investment yield arbitrage

compared to other UK regions, currency effects and a stable

underlying occupational market.

Continued political uncertainty will result in investors focusing

on core income and strong investment fundamentals, however

Northern Ireland at present does offer a unique investment

opportunity whose success will be dependent on a fully

functioning local government being in place.

The Northern Ireland commercial property market continues to be resilient, however the continued lack of a stable Government at Stormont has already had a negative impact on the local economy and should the stalemate persist, we expect this sentiment will feed into both the commercial and residential property markets. The Bank of England has increased interest rates by 25 bps and there is still little clarity on the broader Brexit issues affecting the province.

CastleCourt Shopping Centre, Belfast

Millio

ns (£

)

OtherLeisureIndustrialRetailOffices600

500

400

300

200

100

020172016201520142013201220112010

Figure 2: Northern Ireland CRE Investment 2010-17

Figure 3: Prime yields at the start of 2018

Source: CBRE

Northern Ireland United Kingdom

High Street Shops 5.75% 4.00%

Shopping Centres 7.25% 4.50%

Retail Warehouses (Bulky) 7.50% 5.50%

Offices 6.00%3.75%4.00% 5.00%

West EndCityRegions

Industrials (Estate) 8.50% 4.35% 4.65%

LondonRest of UK

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

This positive activity has resulted in vacancy rates in prime

locations decreasing considerably while secondary locations

continue to find the market challenging. Increased activity and

limited availability within prime locations is beginning to

deliver some upward rental pressure.

Key activity during the year included lettings in Belfast city

centre to Smiggle, Hotel Chocolat Café, Oliver Bonas and

Newbridge Silverware. Westwood Retail Park secured lettings to

Harry Corry, Jollyes, Air-tastic and Ulster Bank whilst The Quays,

Newry secured Marks & Spencer, New Look, Smiggle, The Body

Shop, Søstrene Grene and Pure Gym. Abbey Centre,

Newtownabbey completed relocations with Primark and New

Look, at Connswater The Range, Lidl and Home Bargains

opened new stores and in Lisburn TK Maxx, Pure Gym and

Ground have taken units at Laganbank Retail Park.

As in recent previous years there has been limited new

development with Phase Five at The Quays, Newry, and

Westwood and Laganbank retail parks being the exceptions.

The out of town retail market remains buoyant with very

limited vacancy, notable lettings during the year included;

EZ Living at Holywood Exchange and Oak Furnitureland at

Crescent Link, Derry/Londonderry. Activity in the food sector is

primarily limited to Lidl, who continue to open new format

stores on a rolling programme. M&S Simply Food also opened

their first forecourt store in Northern Ireland close to Belfast

International Airport.

Food and beverage continues to be an active sector with all the

main coffee brands acquiring multiple locations during 2017

and although the casual dining market has slowed, key

operators continue to seek suitable opportunities with much of

the activity centered in Belfast.

2018 appears to present similar challenges and we do not

anticipate any significant divergence from that of recent years.

Increased political uncertainty locally will only continue to

undermine consumer confidence but to counter balance this it

is expected that inflation will ease as we go into the year with

sterling remaining weak.

Laganbank Retail Park, Lisburn The Range, Connswater Shopping Centre, Belfast

There is limited new development anticipated in 2018, with the

exception of Marlborough Retail Park, Craigavon. The out of

town sector could face some challenges following the result of

the Toys R Us CVA. We anticipate that the focus of activity will

remain in the key locations previously identified, with greater

Belfast, Derry/Londonderry and Newry experiencing the

highest level of activity.

It is expected that Canadian operator Tim Horton will

launch in Northern Ireland in early 2018 with their first store

at Wellington Place, Belfast and this sector should remain

active with all of the main coffee operators seeking an

increased presence.

”The out of town retail market remains buoyant with very limited vacancy”

The retail sector continued to experience increased activity in 2017, mainly focused on key centres such as Belfast, Derry/Londonderry, Newry, Bangor and Newtownabbey. It is not a perfect market but is in the main part positive, with head winds of increased inflation and reduced consumer confidence as a result of political uncertainty being off-set to some extent by the benefits of weaker sterling and increased euro and visitor spend.

RETAIL OUTLOOK RETAIL OUTLOOK

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

Merchant Square, Wellington Place, Belfast City Quays 2, Belfast

Linen Loft, Adelaide Street, Belfast

The second half of the year was considerably stronger with 33

transactions completed bring total take-up for the full year to

430,290 sq ft. The five year annual rolling average equates to

385,034 sq ft.

Interest in the market remains healthy and take-up in the

second half of the year supports this view. Take-up in the last six

months emanated from a wide range of FDI companies taking

new space and local companies relocating into larger space due

to growth in their respective businesses.

Notable deals completed in 2017 include HMRC at Erskine

House; HCL at Millennium House; Grant Thornton at Donegall

Square West; First Derivatives at The Weaving Works; Deloitte at

Lincoln Building and TP iCAP, Wireless Group and ITV at

City Quays 2. Headline rents for best in class buildings have

reflected £20.00 per sq ft to £21.50 per sq ft. We anticipate rents

increasing during 2018 to £22.00 per sq ft headline.

Refurbished properties such as Linen Loft, Flax House,

The Weaving Works and Lincoln Building have delivered much

needed stock into the market and the completion of River

House in Q2 2018 will provide a further boost to supply and

choice in the market. Significant projects for 2018 include the

212,000 sq ft Merchant Square building on Wellington Place

with delivery expected in Q1 2019 and Chichester House,

46,000 sq ft.

A number of other schemes have planning permission in the

city centre although in the absence of a major pre-let many are

unlikely to start in 2018.

McAleer & Rushe and Belfast City Council are expected to bring

forward a planning application for the former Belfast Telegraph

building on Royal Avenue. It is expected that the site could

provide up to 300,000 sq ft of commercial space adjacent to

Ulster University.

The first half of 2017 got off to a relatively slow start with only 14 transactions recorded in the first six months which equated to take-up of 165,472 sq ft, however these low volumes did not paint an accurate picture of the activity in the office market.

Squa

re fee

t (00

0’s)

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2011

Q1

265,679 273,624 401,484 348,548 309,543 435,306 430,290

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q420

12 Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q420

13 Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q420

15 Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q420

16 Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q420

17 Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

Liverpool

Belfast

Bristol

Glasgow

Leeds

Birmingham

Edinburgh

Manchester

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25

% difference from five year averageTotal Take-up (millions sq ft)

7%

22%

-2%

7%

75%

51%

39%

8%

-25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Figure 4: Belfast Office Take-up

Figure 5: UK Regional Office Take-up 2017

Source: CBRE

Source: CBRE

OFFICES OUTLOOK OFFICES OUTLOOK

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

2017 has seen a number of lettings agreed for new design and build options. These schemes have been marketed for the past few years, however they are now becoming a viable option for many tenants to suit their growing needs. Deals agreed this year for design and build include sites at Mallusk and Nutts Corner, with rents in the region of £7 per sq ft. This may lead to more Design and Build options coming available as tenant demand increases.

Rent for existing stock remains around £4.00/£4.50 per sq ft

depending on quality and location. Vacancy levels in industrial

parks have continued to decrease with a number of smaller

schemes now fully let or close to being fully let. Rentals for

Design and Build led schemes are typically much higher than

rentals for existing stock reflecting increased construction

costs and specific tenant fit-out requirements.

There has been continued demand for freehold opportunities

from owner occupiers, with units released to the market selling

quickly, for prices in excess of asking.

Michelin, Ballymena

15

A number of large spaces will become vacant in 2018 as

Michelin and Caterpillar prepare to close their respective

Ballymena and Newtownabbey sites. This will deliver c.

1,000,000 sq ft of industrial space to the market.

Notable deals in 2017 include c.10,000 sq ft letting to Screwfix at

Duncure Industrial Estate and the sale of the former Lisburn

Glass factory, Lisburn. In addition, the Coca Cola facility in

Lambeg, Lisburn sold for £3m and TR Logistics acquired 95,000

sq ft at Shore Commericial Park, Carrickfergus. We estimate

total 2017 transactions to be in excess of 1.5m sq ft.

INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS OUTLOOK INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS OUTLOOK

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During 2017, the number of hotel transactions in Northern Ireland was limited with only six hotels with a total value in the region of £42m transacted (based on certain assumptions made on the apportionment of the Jurys Inn portfolio acquisition by Pandox).

There are a number of transactions agreed with completion

dates proposed for the first quarter of 2018. We are therefore

expecting greater transactional activity in this sector in 2018

from hotel investors and operators alike.

Hotel bedroom stock in Belfast increased during 2017 to

approximately 3,600 bedrooms following the opening of the

Titanic Hotel in September (119 bedrooms), the Bullitt Hotel

extension in November (31 bedrooms) and part of the Ten

Square extension throughout the year (57 bedrooms).

At present there are approximately 1,000 bedrooms under

construction and we expect the majority of these to open by

Q3 2018. These include:

• 304-bed Grand Central Hotel, conversion of the former

Windsor House building on Bedford Street;

• 237-bed Maldron Hotel on Brunswick Street /

Blackstaff Square;

• 190-bed AC Marriott Hotel at City Quays;

• 178-bed Hampton by Hilton Hotel at Hope Street;

• 60-bed extension of Holiday Inn Express on

University Street;

• Remaining 33-bed extension of Ten Square Hotel

on Donegall Square South.

Furthermore, an 80-bed extension to Jurys Inn and the new

17-bed boutique hotel at Bank Square both went on site in

December 2017 and are earmarked for completion during 2019.

Titanic Hotel, Belfast

Numb

er of

Passe

ngers

(000

’s)

Belfast City Belfast International City of Derry9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

02017

Jul 16 - Jun 172016201520142013201220112010

Figure 6: Passenger flow at NI Airports

Source: Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency

This new supply equates to approximately 30% of the existing

stock and it is likely there will be a period of trading

stabilisation within the Belfast hotel market once these new

rooms come on stream.

In Belfast, the Liverpool based hotel brand Signature Living

purchased the Scottish Mutual Building, War Memorial

Building, Waring Street and Crumlin Road Courthouse.

It has been reported that they will invest between £80m and

£110m converting these three properties into hotels totalling

268 bedrooms.

We are also seeing increased planning activity outside Belfast,

albeit with limited new hotels and extensions actually under

construction. In preparation for Royal Portrush Golf Club

hosting the Open Championship in 2019, there has been a

flurry of proposed development activity along the north coast.

This includes six proposed new hotels/extensions totalling

424 bedrooms.

During 2017, Belfast proved to be a very popular European city

destination with world class attractions. It benefited from a

favourable exchange rate which was a factor in tourism figures

achieving record levels. As a direct result, Belfast was one of the

best performing markets in the UK with significant ADR and

RevPAR growth.

According to STR Global’s YTD November 2017 statistics, Hotel

Key Performance Indicators in Belfast showed year-on-year

improvements. Occupancy increased to 82.6% from 80.1%

during the same period in 2016. Average Daily Rate (ADR)

experienced significant growth from £69.92 in 2016 to £79.82 in

2017, an increase of 14.2%. This resulted in Belfast achieving

record RevPAR of £65.89, 17.6% ahead of 2016 and growth of

87% since 2011.

HOTELS OUTLOOK HOTELS OUTLOOK

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

STUDENT ACCOMMODATION

The student accommodation sector has been particularly active

in 2017 with a number of new schemes starting on site.

Completions have included John Bell House, operated by Fresh

Student Living; Mark Royal House, Cathedral Living; and

Botanic Studios, Universal Student Living providing a further

614 student beds in Belfast city centre. A further c.2,000 rooms

are expected for delivery in 2018 following completion of

schemes by McAleer & Rushe for Queen’s University, Lacuna/

Watkins Jones and Olympian Homes.

CBRE Research indicates a further 3,322 rooms are proposed

for future delivery. The next phase of delivery of the city centre

Ulster University campus has been delayed resulting in a

phased occupation during 2019/20, with full occupation

programmed for September 2020. This will no doubt impact on

some developer-led schemes which would have been

anticipating full student capacity from September 2019.

HEALTHCARE

With higher life expectancies and improved technology

enabling health care needs to be more manageable, the range

of extra care housing options is expanding to include Care at

Home, Sheltered Housing, Retirement Communities, Assisted

Living, Care Homes and Nursing Homes. While the retirement

market and community in the UK lags behind other mature

countries such as US, Australia and New Zealand we are

witnessing further developments within this sector.

Continued institutional demand is driving development activity

throughout the regions. Legal & General’s recent acquisition of

Helical’s portfolio of retirement villages totaling £102m

demonstrates this demand.

Belfast Student Market

• Belfast is home to five higher education institutions and has

a total of 21,457 full time students;

• 34% of students studying in Belfast live in other rented

accommodation compared to the UK average of 30.74%;

• 9.68% of students studying in Belfast live in purpose built

accommodation (PBSA) compared to the UK average

of 26.53%.

Source: CBRE Research

College Square, Belfast

Locally we will see further development in this sector to include

the Kings Hall Heath & Wellbeing Park to be developed by

Benmore/Octopus Healthcare Developments. We anticipate

planning for this scheme progressing in 2018. The largest local

sale of 2017 comprised three nursing homes let to Priory

Investment Holdings sold to LXI Reit for a combined price of

£14.875m reflecting 4.02%.

Challenges remain within this sector with Four Seasons

recently securing a reprieve on a major debt repayment which

threatened the future of the firm. Four Seasons, which employs

more than 25,000 people, said it aims to agree a restructuring

plan in Q1 2018.

SPECIALIST MARKETS OUTLOOK SPECIALIST MARKETS OUTLOOK

Figure 5: UK Regional Office Take-up 2017

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

BRIAN LAVERYManaging DirectorCBRE Northern Ireland+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

DAVID WRIGHTDirectorOffice Agency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

LISA MCATEERDirectorIndustrial Agency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

COLIN MATHEWSONSenior DirectorRetail Agency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ALANA COYLEDirectorRetail Agency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

PAULA MCKNIGHTAdminValuation+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

GERARD MCCANNDirectorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

PADDY HENRYAssociate DirectorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

JOHN LOWRYAssociate DirectorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

EAMON BUTLERAssociate DirectorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

LUKE MCCLELLANDGraduate SurveyorRetail Agency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

TOMÁS MCLAUGHLINGraduate SurveyorAgency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

FODHLA GALLAGHERStudent SurveyorAgency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

HELEN WATSONAdminAgency+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ROBERT DITTYSenior DirectorCapital Markets+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

BRENDAN WILSONGraduate SurveyorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

KURT EASTWOODStudent SurveyorAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

GAVIN ELLIOTTDirectorCapital Markets+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ANDREW COGGINSDirectorCapital Markets+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

AOIFE ROBINSONAdminCapital Markets+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

CHRIS CALLANSenior DirectorProfessional Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

TRACY FLANNIGANDirectorProfessional Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ALEX SPEERSHotel ValuationHotels & Licensed+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

FIONA MARTYNProject ManagerBuilding Consultancy+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ELLEN MCGOURTY Student SurveyorResearch +44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

DEBORAH FENTONReceptionist +44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

JULIE MCCLELLANDAssociate DirectorProfessional Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ABIGAIL HOLLANDStudent SurveyorProfessional Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

LEONORA MCERLAINAdminProfessional Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

DEBORAH CROMIEDirectorValuation+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

MANA

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DIRE

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ASSE

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VICES

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JOAN MOOREAccounts ManagerAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

DONNA-MARIE BRITTONPurchase LedgerAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

BRENDAN DORRIANHealth & Safety ManagerAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

ROBERTA HENRYCredit ControlAsset Services+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

STEVEN CONWELLAssociate DirectorValuation+44 (0)28 9043 [email protected]

OUR TEAM OUR TEAM

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018© 2018 CBRE Limited

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NORTHERN IRELAND REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

CBRE RESEARCHAll materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including

projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it

and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency

of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or

considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and

none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express

written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost

or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at cbre.com/research or our blog at

aboutrealestate.cbre.eu

Global Real Estate Outlook 2018

The bird’s eye view of the big global trends affecting real estate in 2018.

Available February 2018

The Property Perspectives: regular reports on UK real estate.

Looking for the wider view? Download these related Outlook reports from CBRE’s research teams.

London

Published quarterly, our cross sectoral review of trends in London real estate.

UK Offices

Published twice yearly, our UK offices report focuses on the main office markets outside London.

European Real Estate Outlook 2018

Looking at the key economic and political trends across the continent in a crucial year for Europe.

Retail

The newest addition to The Property Perspective stable, our half-yearly report on what’s hot in UK retail property.

Logistics

Including CBRE’s new Logistics Index, our unique valuation-based index of ‘big box’ logistics real estate. Published half-yearly.

THE PROPERTY PERSPECTIVE

H1 2017

Tourist spending helps boost activity in the busiest retail destinations

THE PROPERTY PERSPECTIVE

Logistics assets remain in high demand from investors

H1 2017

LOGI

STIC

SLOND

ON

THE PROPERTY PERSPECTIVE

Investment booms whilst occupier markets stabilise

Q3 2017

THE PROPERTY PERSPECTIVE

Regional office market remains resilient in first half

H1 2017

UK O

FFIC

E

CBRE RESEARCH

2 0 1 8 G LO B A L

REAL ESTATE MARKET

OUTLOOK

Page 13: REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK - BUSINESSFIRST · Our local property market should be well placed for future investment once the additional £1 billion funding for Northern ... yields,