real estate investment strategist dividend capital...
TRANSCRIPT
Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor
University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate
& Construction Management &
Real Estate Investment Strategist
Dividend Capital Research
• Securitization:
• The process of converting an income stream from a fixed asset, such as real estate,
into a security with a value that can readily be determined in the market and readily traded.
REITs Defined • Investment Conduit created in 1960 to own & manage
commercial real estate
• Elective choice under U.S. tax code • Must distribute 90% of taxable income • At least 75% of assets and income (rents, interest, sale gains) from real estate
• Less than 30% of gross income can be property sales held less than 4 years • Minimum 100 shareholders
• No more than 50% of shares held by five or fewer investors
• Income is taxed at shareholder level (dividends)
• Mostly Equity REITs (some debt and hybird)
• Most traded on NYSE
The Modern Real Estate Evolution Beginning in the early 1990s, the real estate asset class grew from a sector market capitalization of around $10 billion to approximately $314 billion in 1Q2010.
1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT
General Partner
LP #1 LP #2 LP #3
Umbrella Partnership
Umbrella Partnership Units = Stock Shares
729 exchange 729 exchange 729 exchange
UP Share To Stock Share = Taxable exchange
Market Capitalization Growth of Public Equity REITs Growth of the REIT Market
Source: NAREIT data as of 01/31/2010. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. The NAREIT data shown reflects market capitalization of the public U.S. real estate investment trust market. REITs included in this data are publicly traded.
REIT History • Formed by an act of Congress in 1960 • Construction Mortgage REITs in early 1970s • Ignored due to Limited Partnerships in 1970s & 80s • 1986 Tax Act Allowed Active Internal Management • Kimco REIT started new ERA in 1991 • 1992 FFO Established • Taubman created UPREIT in 1992 • Growth was key to success in 1990s = Mega REITs • 1999 FFO revised • 2000 Taxable REIT subsidiaries allowed • 2000 added BACK into S&P 500 • 2009 REITs raise $28 Billion in equity (largest ever)
Why REITs Benefit the Real Estate Industry
• Access to Public Market Capital • Professional Management • Longer term investment focus = better prop mgt • Managers aligned with stockholders • Heavily Researched (over 500 REIT analysts)
• Lower Leverage (50% for REITs vs. 75% for private RE)
• Real Time Pricing • Dividend Discipline • Liquidity
Growth in # Companies and $ Size of Companies
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Equity REIT Market Capitalization (December 1971 - December 2011)
REIT Market Capitalization
# of Equity REITs
Billions of dollars
Growth in Company Size
Number of Companies
Source: NAREIT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Under $100M $100- $500M $500 - $999M $1.0 - $1.9B $2.0B - $3.9B Over $4B
REIT Market Capitalization - Size Distribution
1991 - 136 REITs
2005 - 191 REITs
2007 - 121 REITs
2009 - 113 REITs
2010 - 150 REITs
2011 - 162 REITs
Source: NAREIT
Historic Market Capitalization Growth
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
US
Dol
lars
(mill
ions
)
Market Cap - All
Market Cap - Equity
Market Cap - Mortgage
Market Cap - Hybrid
Improving Liquidity for Large Trades
Source: NAREIT
Indexed at December 1980 = 100
Source: NAREIT®
REITs Provide Inflation Protection - (Capital Preservation)
Equity REIT Price Index versus CPI
80100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380400420440460480500520540560
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
NAREIT Equity Price Index (Indexed)
CPI (Seasonally Adjusted) (Indexed)
Indexed at December 1980 = 100.0
Real Estate Total Return- an Inflation Hedge
Source: NAREIT®, NCREIF, BLS, Mueller
100
200
300
400
500
600
NAREIT
NCREIF
CPI
Capital Raising Strong .
Capital Raising Strong
Source: Morningstar Inc., Financial Communications. ©2010 All rights reserved. Used with permission. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500; Bonds are represented by a 20-year U.S. Government Bond; T-Bills are represented by a U.S. 30-day T-Bill; REITs are represented by the NAREIT Equity REIT Index, an unmanaged index reflecting performance of U.S. real estate investment trust market. The REITs included in this index are publicly traded. Risk is represented by standard deviation, which is a statistical measurement that depicts how widely returns varied over time. The measurement is generally used to predict and understand the range of returns that are most likely for a given investment. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. Industrial Income Trust is a non-traded REIT; therefore, this data should not be used as a comparison to, or an implication of, non-traded REIT performance. Investments in real estate may be subject to special risks associated with operating and leasing properties, as well as risks due to changes in economic conditions, interest rates, property values, and supply and demand, in addition to possible environmental liabilities, zoning issues and natural disasters.
Diversification Portfolio Benefits
Stock and Bond Investor January 1972 to December 2006
Portfolio Diversification
Source: © 2010 Morningstar. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500; Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. Government Bond; Cash is represented by a U.S. 30-day T-Bill; Direct real estate is represented by the MIT transaction-based index (TBI), a statistical methodology that produces estimates of price movements and total returns based on transactions of properties sold from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Property Index (NPI). The NPI is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors and is presented without leverage or fees. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. Risk is represented by standard deviation, which is a statistical measurement that depicts how widely returns varied over time. The measurement is generally used to predict and understand the range of returns that are most likely for a given investment. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. Investing in real estate entails certain risks, including changes in: the economy, supply and demand, laws, tenant turnover, interest rates (including periods of high interest rates), availability of mortgage funds, operating expenses and cost of insurance. Some real estate investments offer limited liquidity options.
Potential to Reduce Risk and Increase Risk-Adjusted Return January 1985 to December 2009
0% Direct Real Estate with 10% Direct Real Estate
Portfolio Diversification
with 20% Direct Real Estate
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
J-53
J-55
J-57
J-59
J-61
J-63
J-65
J-67
J-69
J-71
J-73
J-75
J-77
J-79
J-81
J-83
J-85
J-87
J-89
J-91
J-93
J-95
J-97
J-99
J-01
J-03
J-05
J-07
J-09
J-11
Yiel
d
Bond Values DROP as Interest Rates Rise
* As of October 31, 2011. Source: U.S. Treasury — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
LT Average 6.35%
Average Total Return 80-11 = 8.8%
Average Total Return 53-70 = 1.9%
Average Total Return 53-80 = 3.9%
Real Estate Provides Inflation Protection
Source: NAREIT, NCREIF, BLS, and Mueller
-‐40.00
-‐30.00
-‐20.00
-‐10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
NAREIT & NCREIF Yearly Returns vs Infla7on
NAREIT (Avg=13.54) NCREIF (Avg=9.35) Infla7on (Avg=4.47)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1978
Q4
1979
Q4
1980
Q4
1981
Q4
1982
Q4
1983
Q4
1984
Q4
1985
Q4
1986
Q4
1987
Q4
1988
Q4
1989
Q4
1990
Q4
1991
Q4
1992
Q4
1993
Q4
1994
Q4
1995
Q4
1996
Q4
1997
Q4
1998
Q4
1999
Q4
2000
Q4
2001
Q4
2002
Q4
2003
Q4
2004
Q4
2005
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
33 year Cumulative Total Returns NAREIT Equity REIT NCREIF Nasdaq S&P 500 S&P Utilities Russell 2000 Dow Jones Industrial Average Govt / Corp Mortgage
REITs best 33-year return
Best Cumulative Total Return Over Past 33 Years
Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ.
Long-Term Wealth Preservation
1 Sources: NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries), Bloomberg, Lehman, RCG. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of the 500 largest stocks (in terms of market value), weighted by market capitalization and considered representative of the broad stock market. The Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific indices that are calculated and reported on a regular basis.
“Up” and “Down” Years For Direct Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds 1934 to 20101
REITS and Real Estate Improve the Efficient Frontier
in a Historic Mixed Asset Portfolio
Bond TOTAL Returns Expected to be low From a low interest rate starting point
REITs have beat inflation
And had low correlation with stocks
1972–1981 1982–1991 1992–2001
Small Stocks 0.64 0.67 0.26
Large Stocks 0.74 0.74 0.30
LT Bonds 0.16 0.28 0.08
Declining Equity REIT Correlation Monthly correlation of REIT total returns to other types of investments
Source: REITs—NAREIT Equity Index; Small Stocks—Ibbotson U.S. Small Stock Series; Large Stocks—Standard & Poor’s 500®; LT Bonds—20-year U.S. Government Bond.
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1-1-
95
1-1-
96
1-1-
97
1-1-
98
1-1-
99
1-1-
00
1-1-
01
1-1-
02
1-1-
03
1-1-
04
1-1-
05
1-1-
06
1-1-
07
1-1-
08
1-1-
09
1-1-
10
1-1-
11
60 Month Rolling Correlation of Equity REIT and S&P 500 Total Returns (December 1994 - December 2011)
Correlation Coefficient
Low Correlations Changed
Source: SNL Data source
9.09
12.5
9.76
6.58
11.1
927
.07
12.4
5
17.2
1
13.1
8
16.7
4
14.3
17.8
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Long-Term Gov't Bond NCREIF NASDAQ Composite Equity REITs S&P 500 Russell 2000
28-Year Compound Annual Returns and Standard Deviation of Annual Returns
Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Ibbotson Associates, NASDAQ. 1972 since it is the year the NAREIT Index started. NCREIF and NASDAQ series began January 1979. Equity REITs are price appreciation only.
Compound Annual Total Returns 1972-2000 Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 1972-2000
30-Year Compound Annual Returns and Standard Deviation of Annual Returns
Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Ibbotson Associates, NASDAQ. 1972 since it is the year the NAREIT Index started. NCREIF and NASDAQ series began January 1979. Equity REITs are price appreciation only.
Compound Annual Total Returns 1972-2002 Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 1972-2002
9.3 11
.8
9.54
6.35
826
.4
12.3
5 14.6
10.6
6
17
14.2
25.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Long-Term Gov'tBond
NCREIF NASDAQ Composite Equity REITs S&P 500 Russell 2000
8.39 9.15
13.31 11.89 11.22 12.05
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NC
REI
F
Gov
't/C
orp
NA
REI
T Eq
uity
S&P
500
RU
SSEL
L 20
00
NA
SDA
Q
39 Year Index Return Comparisons 1972-2011 One Standard Deviaton 68% Confidence Intervals
Actual Loss
10% Target Return
Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ.
Risk = How Much Loss
8.14 9.22
13.22 11.98 11.43 12.29
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NC
REI
F
Gov
't/C
orp
NA
REI
T Eq
uity
S&P
500
RU
SSEL
L 20
00
NA
SDA
Q
39 Year Index Return Comparisons 1972-2010 One Standard Deviaton 68% Confidence Intervals
Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ. Particular investments may contain risks not illustrated by its associated index. This is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any particular investment or future results.
Risk = How Much Loss Index Return Comparisons
1981 – 2010 One Standard Deviation 68% Confidence Intervals
REIT % Value Share of Major Indexes
7.16%
1.82% 1.70% 1.69%
0.39%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Russell 2000 S&P SmallCap
Wilshire 5000 S&P Mid-Cap400
S&P 500
Source: Frank Russell Company; Bloomberg as of 2004
REITs Invest in All Property Types Property Sector Percent Residential 19 Office Buildings 18 Shopping Centers 14 Regional Malls 13 Diversified 7 Industrial Facilities 6 Mixed (Industrial and Office) 6 Health Care 5 Specialty 6 Lodging/Resorts 4 Self Storage
4 June 30, 2003
Source: NAREIT
Source: NAREIT 12-2011
NAREIT Equity Index Property Composition
Residen4al, 17%
Office, 11%
Off/Ind, 2%
Industrial, 4%
Regional Malls, 16%
Free Stand Retail, 2%
Shopping Centers, 8%
Diversified, 8%
Healthcare, 13%
Self Storage, 7%
Timber, 5% Hotel, 6%
NAREIT Index Property Type
Return Performance Volatility
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 DOW Jones Ind S&P 500 NAREIT Equity
%
1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 20 year 30 year
Sources: NASDAQ, Frank Russell, Dow Jones, S& P, NAREIT
REITs exhibit consistent return performance 1976-2006
10% Target
* Time period based off of trailing Four-Quarter Annualized Returns from 4Q09. Source: NAREIT, January 2010 and NCREIF. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only, and does not reflect the actual return of a specific investment. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Property Index (NPI) is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average and does not include leverage or fees. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of the 500 largest stocks (in terms of market value), weighted by market capitalization and considered representative of the broad stock market. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index of the smallest 2,000 securities in the Russell 3000 Index, and considered representative of the U.S. small-cap equity universe. The NASDAQ Composite represents all stocks that trade on the NASDAQ stock market, weighted by capitalization, and is considered representative of the broad equity market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. These indices are used in comparison to the NPI in order to illustrate the differences in historical total returns generated by direct commercial real estate, stocks and bonds. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. 1 Price-only returns are listed for the NASDAQ Composite.
Historic Performance
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 DOW Jones Ind S&P 500 NAREIT Equity
%
Return Performance Volatility 1981 - 2011
1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 20 year 30 year
REIT Dividend Growth averaged 48% higher than CPI over 23 years
Percent
Source: NAREIT (REIT dividends) & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2.4
7.5 7.1
5.4
2.6
5.4
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.9
7.4 8.0
7.7
6.8
3.8
1.9
5.2 5.8
5.4 5.5
7.4
4.7
-1.0
9.0
4.4 4.4 4.6
6.1
3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
3.3
1.7 1.6
2.7
3.4
1.6
2.4 1.9
3.3 3.4
2.5
4.1
0.1
2.8
1.6
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Gro
wth
(%)
Equity REIT Dividend Growth versus CPI 1987-2010
NAREIT Equity REIT Dividend Growth (Average = 5.52%)
Consumer Price Index CPI-U - Seasonally Adjusted (Avg 2.91%)
Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource, and Mueller
31-Year Public Equity REIT Return Composition
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
(40.0)
(30.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0 19
81
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Equity REIT Return Composition (through year-end 2010)
Price Change (%)
Income (%)
Total Return (%) LR Average Price Return: 6.05% LR Average Dividend Return: 7.40% LR Average Total Return: 13.34%
Source: NAREIT, SNL Data Source and Mueller
Always Positive FFO Growth 30 -Year Equity REIT Price Change Composition
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1972
19
73
1974
19
75
1976
19
77
1978
19
79
1980
19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
Composite REIT Leverage (1972 - 2011)
Source: SNL Datasource.
REIT Leverage Low and Conservative REIT Leverage Low and Conservative
FFO Payout Ratio Analysis Trailing Twelve Month Dividend/Trailing Month FFO
Source: SNL Datasource
Lower Payouts Provide Safer Dividend Coverage
Fund Flows Drive Stock Prices – Short Term REIT Mutual Funds Flows vs. Sector Performance
$(2.1)
$(1.7)
$(1.3)
$(.9)
$(.5)
$(.1)
$.3
$.7
$1.1
$1.5
$1.9
$2.3
$2.7
Mar
-96
Jul-9
6
Nov
-96
Mar
-97
Jul-9
7
Nov
-97
Mar
-98
Jul-9
8
Nov
-98
Mar
-99
Jul-9
9
Nov
-99
Mar
-00
Jul-0
0
Nov
-00
Mar
-01
Jul-0
1N
ov-0
1
Mar
-02
Jul-0
2
Nov
-02
Mar
-03
Jul-0
3N
ov-0
3
Mar
-04
Jul-0
4N
ov-0
4
Mar
-05
Jul-0
5
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
Jul-0
6N
ov-0
6
Mar
-07
Jul-0
7
Nov
-07
Mar
-08
Jul-0
8
Nov
-08
Mar
-09
Fund
s Fl
ows
to D
edic
ated
REI
T M
utua
l Fun
ds ($
Bill
ions
)
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
RM
S REIT Index
Monthly Net REIT Funds Flows RMS Index
As of 0f 3/23/2009RMS: 441.92
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
4 8 12 16
Efficient Frontiers 25 Year Returns
Stocks & Bonds
w/ REITs
w/ R.E.w/ R.E. & REITs
Mtg
Russell 2000NASDAQ
S&P 500
REITs
D.J Ind
BondsNCREIF
Utilities
25 Year Risk Reward
Source: Mueller & Mueller, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 2003
REITs ACT as a Different Asset Class
Source: NAREIT
Correlation and Risk-Adjusted Performanceof REIT and Stock Market Indexes
Monthly Total Returns, 7/92 - 6/07
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Correlation with Dow Jones Wilshire 5000
Shar
pe R
atio
REIT Indexes Stock Market Sector and Style IndexesCommodity Indexes Aggregate Bond Index
Value Stocks
Utility Stocks
Large-Cap Growth Stocks
Energy Stocks
Growth Stocks
REITs
Commodities
Bonds
S&P
Dividend Increasers Outperform 2002 - 2004 REIT Total Return Grouped by Dividend Policy
12.5%
3.6%
-3.4%
42.6%
32.5%
18.8%
36.8%
25.0%
4.7%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Dividend Increase Dividend Same Dividend Decrease
Tota
l Ret
urn
2002 2003 2004
Source: SNL,
7x
8x
9x
10x
11x
12x
13x
14x
15x
16x
17x
18x
19x
20x
21x
1981
19
82
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
FFO Multiples Forward & Trailing
LT Trailing Average: 13.1x
At 12/31/11 Trailing premium to LT Trailing Avg: 41.1% Forward premium to LT Forward Avg: 46.3%
10 Year Trailing Average: 15.0x x
REIT Multiples Above LT Average
Source: SNL
10 Years Above Average
Institutional Price Movements NCREIF Current Value Cap Rates (Appraisal Based)
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Cap
Rate
s
C urrent Value C ap R ate
Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries – NCREIF
LT Average = 7.63%
Property Price Movements
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago
8.5 Office - CBD8.9 Office - suburban8.5 Industrial - Warehouse9.0 Industrial - R&D8.0 Apartments
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Historic Cap Rates
Office - CBD Office - suburban Industrial - Warehouse Industrial - R&D Apartments
Property Price Movements
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago
10.2 Hotels7.9 Regional Mall8.9 Power Center8.7 Neighborhood Comm.
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Historic Cap Rates
Hotels Regional Mall Power Center Neighborhood Comm.
FFO to Cap Rate Conversion
1/FFO = Cap Rate
10.0x = 10
11.1x = 9
12.5x = 8
14.3x = 7
16.7x = 6
REITs Trading Below Private Market Pricing
Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource
REIT NAV Premium / Discount at 8.5% Cap Rate
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
Mar-80
Mar-81
Mar-82
Mar-83
Mar-84
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Mar-94
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
REITs are trading at an implied cap rate (the cap rate at which NAV equals the current share price) of almost 9%.
Where Should Real Estate be Valued?
Implied Cap Rates & Corporate Bond Yields
8.8%
7.8%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1-98
1-99
1-00
1-01
1-02
1-03
1-04
1-05
1-06
1-07
1-08
1-09
Implied Cap Rate Baa-rated Long-term Corp Bonds
Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource
Office vs REIT Cap Rates
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00M
ar-9
4
Mar
-95
Mar
-96
Mar
-97
Mar
-98
Mar
-99
Mar
-00
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
Office Cap REIT Cap
Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research
Industrial vs REIT Cap Rates
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00M
ar-9
4
Mar
-95
Mar
-96
Mar
-97
Mar
-98
Mar
-99
Mar
-00
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
Ind Cap REIT Cap
Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research
Retail vs REIT Cap Rates
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0M
ar-9
4
Mar
-95
Mar
-96
Mar
-97
Mar
-98
Mar
-99
Mar
-00
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
Retail Cap REIT Cap
Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research
Multimamily vs REIT Cap Rates
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0M
ar-9
4
Mar
-95
Mar
-96
Mar
-97
Mar
-98
Mar
-99
Mar
-00
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
MF Cap REIT Cap
Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research
Proxy for IRR expectations = economic cap rates + intermediate-term growth + long-term growth (expected inflation less 110 basis points). Inflation source: Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source for Mortgage Rates: American Council of Life Insurers and Green Street.
IRR Expectations vs. Commercial Mortgage Rates
9.2%
7.5%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
1-86
1-88
1-90
1-92
1-94
1-96
1-98
1-00
1-02
1-04
1-06
1-08
IRR Expectations Commercial Mtg Rate
Key assumption underlying IRRs: Prices are already down by 35-40%.
That’s more than most think.
q By combining historic cap rate, intermediate growth, and inflation expectations, it is possible to construct a time series of the unleveraged returns that real estate investors historically have expected to achieve.
Where Should Real Estate be Valued?
Return Premiums on Real EstateUnleveraged IRR Expectations minus Borrowing Rates
172 bp
Avg = 180 bp
0 bp
50 bp
100 bp
150 bp
200 bp
250 bp
300 bp
350 bp
400 bp
1-86
1-88
1-90
1-92
1-94
1-96
1-98
1-00
1-02
1-04
1-06
1-08
q Historically, return (IRR) expectations have substantially exceeded borrowing rates. Assuming that values are down 35-40%, the spread is now about back to normal. Real estate is fairly valued if prices are down this much.
Where Should Real Estate be Valued?
Most current numbers (12/31/99)
Source: NAREIT, NCREIF
NAREIT Equity REIT Index
NCREIF Index
Total Return Analysis NCREIF vs NAREIT 1970 to 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NAREIT NCREIF
3 Components of Real Estate Return
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sep-90
Sep-91
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
NCREIF = Real Estate Return
Leverage
United Asset Mgt = Management
REIT Return (All 3 Components)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sep-90
Sep-91
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
NAREIT
Private vs Public Pricing
Return Components 1995 - 2004
8 7
2 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NCREIF Equity REITs Income Return Capital Appreciation
Source: NAREIT, NCREIF
1960 – REIT established in US
Early 1980s – UK adopts REIT structure
Mid 1980s – Dutch and Canadians adopt REITs
Late 1980s – Japanese adopt JREIT
Early 1990s – Dutch invest in US REITs
Mid 1990s – Germans adopt REITs
2000s – many countries adopt REIT format
REIT evolve Globally
§ Australia § Belgium § Bulgaria § Canada § France § Germany § Hong Kong
§ Israel § Italy § Japan § Korea § Malaysia § Mexico § Netherlands
§ New Zealand § Singapore § South Korea § Taiwan § Thailand § Turkey § United Kingdom
REIT Legislation Under Discussion 2009/10:
§ Finland § India
§ Pakistan § Spain
Countries with REIT Legislation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 1月
-84
1月-8
6
1月-8
8
1月-9
0
1月-9
2
1月-9
4
1月-9
6
1月-9
8
1月-0
0
1月-0
2
1月-0
4
1月-0
6
1月-0
8
1月-1
0
# Companies by Region
America Asia Europe
Source: Global Property Research
Source: Global Property Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1月-8
4
1月-8
6
1月-8
8
1月-9
0
1月-9
2
1月-9
4
1月-9
6
1月-9
8
1月-0
0
1月-0
2
1月-0
4
1月-0
6
1月-0
8
1月-1
0
# Companies America
Canada Mexico
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1月-8
4
1月-8
6
1月-8
8
1月-9
0
1月-9
2
1月-9
4
1月-9
6
1月-9
8
1月-0
0
1月-0
2
1月-0
4
1月-0
6
1月-0
8
1月-1
0
# Companies Europe
France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1月-8
4
1月-8
6
1月-8
8
1月-9
0
1月-9
2
1月-9
4
1月-9
6
1月-9
8
1月-0
0
1月-0
2
1月-0
4
1月-0
6
1月-0
8
1月-1
0
# Companies Asia
Australia Hong Kong Japan Singapore
Source: Global Property Research
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
12月
-83
12月
-85
12月
-87
12月
-89
12月
-91
12月
-93
12月
-95
12月
-97
12月
-99
12月
-01
12月
-03
12月
-05
12月
-07
12月
-09
Cumulative Returns Regions
America Asia Europe
Source: Global Property Research
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
12月
-83
12月
-85
12月
-87
12月
-89
12月
-91
12月
-93
12月
-95
12月
-97
12月
-99
12月
-01
12月
-03
12月
-05
12月
-07
12月
-09
Cumulative Returns Asia
Australia Hong Kong Japan Singapore
-
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
1-12月
-83
1-10月
-85
1-8月
-87
1-6月
-89
1-4月
-91
1-2月
-93
1-12月
-94
1-10月
-96
1-8月
-98
1-6月
-00
1-4月
-02
1-2月
-04
1-12月
-05
1-10月
-07
1-8月
-09
Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Spain Sweden Switzerland
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1-12月
-83
1-8月
-85
1-4月
-87
1-12月
-88
1-8月
-90
1-4月
-92
1-12月
-93
1-8月
-95
1-4月
-97
1-12月
-98
1-8月
-00
1-4月
-02
1-12月
-03
1-8月
-05
1-4月
-07
1-12月
-08
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
United States
Source: Global Property Research
y = 2E+07x - 7E+11 R² = 0.85007
0
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
7月-99
10月-99
1月-00
4月-00
7月-00
10月-00
1月-01
4月-01
7月-01
10月-01
1月-02
4月-02
7月-02
10月-02
1月-03
4月-03
7月-03
10月-03
1月-04
4月-04
7月-04
10月-04
1月-05
4月-05
7月-05
10月-05
Agg
rega
te V
olum
e
GPR in comparison
GPR FTSE/EPRA NAREIT S&P/Citigroup
Inclusion Criteria
Membership N/A N/A N/A
Property Activity >75% operational turnover >25% from rent
>75% EBITDA (>60% for Asia region)
>60% revenue from rent
Size >US$ 50m North America: >US$ 200m Europe: >€ 50m Asia: >US$ 100m
>US$ 100m
Liquidity (turnover p/a)
250 most liquid stocks North America: >US$ 100m Europe: >€ 25m Asia: >US$ 100m
>US$ 25m
Index Construction
Country Allocation Primary listing Primary listing Decided on a case-by-case basis
Weighting Free float Free float Free float
Pricing Frequency Daily Daily Daily
Revision Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Annually
Source: “Benchmarking Global Listed Property”, Russell Research, March 2008
Benchmarks comparison
31 May 2010 GPR General GPR General Quoted GPR 250 GPR 250 REIT
Number of countries
Global 31 31 26 15
Africa 1 1 1 1
Americas 3 3 3 2
Asia 11 11 6 4
Europe 16 16 14 6
Oceania 2 2
31 May 2010 GPR General GPR General Quoted GPR 250 GPR 250 REIT
Number of stocks
Global 475 428 250 183
Africa 17 17 8 2
Americas 136 135 111 105
Asia 140 140 55 31
Europe 182 136 59 28
Oceania 17 17
For updated information, please contact [email protected].
ASIA REIT Markets 2010
Source: SNL data source
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Japan Hong Kong Singapore Austrailia India New Zealand
Number of Public Companies
ASIA REIT Markets 2010
Source: SNL data source
2077
1439
943 836
607
431
166 102 46 22 3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Japan Australia China Hong Kong
Singapore India New Zealand
Malaysia Thailand South Korea
Taiwan
Number of properties by EAE Country
ASIA REIT Markets 2010
Source: SNL data source
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600 EAE Properties by Property Focus
ASIA REIT Markets 2010
-15.9 -16.3 -20.7 -28.2
-36.7 -37.4
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40 G
loba
l Med
ian
Sing
apor
e
New
Zea
land
Japa
n
Aus
tral
ia
Hon
g K
ong
Global real estate median premium/(discount) to NAV (%)*
As of June 1 *Calculated using reported NAV. Reported NAV will take the following priority: NAV per share, Diluted NAV per share, EPRA Diluted NAV per share, EPRA Diluted NNNAV per share. Global medians include all covered Real Estate companies and is not constrained to REITs. Asia-‐Pacific company values are based on June 1 close. Source: SNL Financial
Source: SNL data source
HOW TO ANALYZE A REIT STOCK Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D.
University of Denver
Professor
&
Dividend Capital Group
Real Estate Investment Strategist
The REIT Industry Today
• 160 REITs: – 134 equity REITs (largest REIT $36 billion market cap)
– 26 mortgage & hybrid REITs
• Over $800 billion of real estate
• Own 10% of U.S. Institutional real estate
• All major property types and cities
• Improving liquidity (S&P additions, company consolidations)
• Financial leverage with investment grade status
• Distinguished by Property Type & Geography
• Viable for both large and small investors
Percentage of Real Estate held by REITs as of December 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Malls
Hotels
Retail
Apartm
ent
Warehouse
Office
200219971960-96
Sources: F.W. Dodge, SNL REIT Securities Database, Wilshire Associates R.E. Securities Index, Bloomberg REOC Index, CB Commercial - Torto Wheaton Research, Smith Travel, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Research Bureau and Prudential Real Estate Investors Research
30.7%
7.9% 6.6% 7.2%
18.8%
12.6%
REITs control $300 billion (5%) of $6 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market
REIT Stock Selection
• Real Estate Fundamentals - Physical Market Cycle • Pricing - Current sector multiples vs. industry
• Properties • Management • Capital Structure • Stock Market’s Valuation
Bottom Up Process
Top Down Process
REIT Investment Criteria • Property
– Property / Sub-Market Location – Age/Condition – Tenant Quality – Lease Structure (rollover risk) – Market Demand/Supply Balance (where in Cycle) – Market Occupancy Forecast – Rent Growth Potential – Occupancy, Rent Growth & Acquisitions DRIVE Rent Growth
REIT Investment Criteria • Management
– Ability to Create Value (growth strategies) • Acquisition • Development • Rehabilitation • Property Management • Leasing
– Organization Structure • Management Focus • Conflicts of Interest • Insider Ownership (highest % of any stock sector) • Corporate Governance -Board of Directors
Bottom Up Capital Structure Analysis • Capital Structure
– Financial Strength (FFO and FAD) – Dividend Coverage
• Equity Structure – Debt / Total Market Capitalization Ratio – Operating Partnership Units – Preferred Stock & Convertible Preferred – Management Ownership & Control
• Debt Structure – Fixed Debt % and Terms – Floating Debt % and Terms
• Hybrids and Mergers
Bottom Up Stock Price Analysis
• Peer Group Analysis – Dividend Yield – FFO Growth – FFO Multiple – FFO Growth to Multiple Ratio vs. Peers – AFFO / FAD
• Objective & Subjective Factor Analysis • Market Trend Impacts
Name Symbol Price Dividend Yield Low High Market Cap ($M) Debt/Market Cap 2007 2008Hersha Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20 $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4
Sunstone Hotel Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67 $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3Ashford Hospitality Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48 $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3
FelCor Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50 $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7LaSalle Hotel Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75 $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6
52 Week FFO Growth
Name Symbol Price Dividend Yield Low High Market Cap ($M) Debt/Market Cap 2007 2008Ashford Hospitality Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48 $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3
Hersha Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20 $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4FelCor Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50 $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7
Sunstone Hotel Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67 $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3LaSalle Hotel Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75 $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6
52 Week FFO Growth
By Dividend Yield
By Debt/Total Market Cap
By 2007 FFO Growth
Comparison Table
Name Symbol Price Dividend Yield Low High Market Cap ($M) Debt/Market Cap 2007 2008LaSalle Hotel Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75 $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6
Hersha Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20 $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4FelCor Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50 $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7
Sunstone Hotel Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67 $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3Ashford Hospitality Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48 $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3
52 Week FFO Growth
Hotel REITs
Hotel REITs
6
78
910
1112
1314
15
0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21
FFO Growth
Cur
rent
FFO
Mul
tiple
HPT AHT
HT
SHO FCH
HST
ENN BEE
LHO
AHT – Ashford Hospitality Trust HT – Hersha Hospitality
LHO – LaSalle Hotel Properties SHO – Sunstone Hotel Investors
FCH – FelCor Lodging
Over Priced REITs
Under Priced REITs
Market Cycle Position
Jacksonville Long Island+2 Nashville Orange County Philadelphia Riverside-1 San Francisco+1 Wash DC W. Palm Beach
Dallas Ft. Lauderdale Las Vegas Memphis Milwaukee-1 Minneapolis Oklahoma City Orlando+1 Portland Sacramento San Jose+2 Stamford+1
Hartford New Orleans N. New Jersey Cleveland
Source: Mueller, 2007
14 6 7
8 9 12
13
1 15 16
5 4 3 2 1
11 10
LT Average Occupancy
2nd Quarter, 2007
Columbus Detroit
Kansas City St. Louis
Atlanta Charlotte Chicago Denver+1 East Bay+1 Miami Norfolk Raleigh-Durham Richmond+1 San Antonio Salt Lake Seattle Tampa NATION
Austin Honolulu Houston+1 Los Angeles New York Phoenix San Diego
AHT = Red
HT = Blue
FCH = Green
SHO = Orange
LHO = Brown
Phase 1 -‐‑ Recovery
Phase 2 -‐‑ Expansion Phase 3 –
Hyper-‐‑Supply
Phase 4 -‐‑ Recession
By Dividend Yield
By Debt/Total Market Cap
By 2007/2008 FFO Growth
Comparison Tables
Company Name Ticker Price
CurrentDividend
Yield(%) Price/FFO
TotalCapitalization
($M)
TotalDebt/Gtotal Market
Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO
Provected GrowthMI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%ProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%
Company Name Ticker Price
CurrentDividend
Yield(%) Price/FFO
TotalCapitalization
($M)
TotalDebt/Gtotal Market
Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO
Provected GrowthFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%ProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%MI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%
Company Name Ticker Price
CurrentDividend
Yield(%) Price/FFO
TotalCapitalization
($M)
TotalDebt/Gtotal Market
Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO
Provected GrowthProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%MI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%
Industrial REITs
Industrial REITs
LRY – Liberty Property Trust FPO – First Potamic Realty Trust
FR – First Industrial Realty Trust MIM - MI Developments Inc.
AMB – AMB Property Corporation DCT - DCT Industrial Trust Inc
EGP – East Group Properties PLD - ProLogis
LRY
AMB EGP
FPO
FR
MIM
DCT PLD
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Industrial Sector
-2.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16
Average FFO Forecast
Cu
rren
t FFO
Mu
ltip
le
Charlotte Dallas FW Denver+2
Jacksonville Long Island Memphis+1
Miami N. New Jersey
Richmond San Antonio
Wash DC NATION
Atlanta Baltimore Chicago Cincinnati Columbus Indianapolis Kansas City Milwaukee Minneapolis Nashville New York Norfolk Oklahoma City Orlando Raleigh-Durham
Source: Mueller, 2007
11
14 6 7
8 9
10 12
13
1 15
16 5 4 3 2 1
2nd Quarter, 2007
LT Average Occupancy
Market Cycle Position
Boston+1 Hartford
Honolulu Philadelphia
St. Louis Stamford
Cleveland Detroit-1 Pittsburgh Tampa
Austin-1 Ft. Lauderdale Portland Sacramento San Diego San Francisco San Jose+1
New Orleans+2 Phoenix
Houston Salt Lake Seattle-1
Orange County
East Bay Riverside W. Palm Beach
Las Vegas+3 Los Angeles+2
ProLogis - Red
AMB - Green
DCT - Blue Phase 2 -‐‑ Expansion
Phase 1 -‐‑ Recovery
Phase 3 – Hyper-‐‑Supply
Phase 4 -‐‑ Recession
REIT Analysis - Conclusion
• Real Estate Fundamentals – Occupancies & Rents • Management • Capital Structure
Pricing Comes from
Earnings come from
• Earning Growth Expectations (relative) • Stock Market Emotions (love / hate / scared) • Make your selections on a “within RE basis”
Real estate prices declined 42% in 2008 & 9 § Tough for properties 70%+ financed at high prices
§ Low bond rates not readily available in current mortgage rates
§ Lower occupancy and rents stressed owners
2010, 2011, 2012 – recovery continues § Occupancies then rents recovered – but at a slow pace
§ Mortgage maturities - extended in 2010 &11 - forced sales did not happen
§ Credit markets open to REITs – tight for private owners (60% LTV)
§ Prices increase in primary markets – still low in secondary & tertiary markets
Opportunities should Abound ? § Low supply creates foundation of a solid recovery
§ Distressed owners & mortgage maturity are great buying opportunity
§ REITs with capital should be big winners
§ Real Estate is an inflation hedge…that should matter a lot someday
Summary
Outline of Presentation by Glenn R. Mueller Ph.D. • Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts
• History and Fundamentals of REITs
• Performance of REIT investments
• Risks and Rewards
• How to analyze a REIT company Property Management Capital Structure Stock Valuation