real estate investment strategist dividend capital...

90
Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management & Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Research [email protected]

Upload: others

Post on 09-Aug-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor

University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate

& Construction Management &

Real Estate Investment Strategist

Dividend Capital Research

[email protected]

Page 2: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

• Securitization:

•  The process of converting an income stream from a fixed asset, such as real estate,

into a security with a value that can readily be determined in the market and readily traded.

Page 3: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITs Defined •  Investment Conduit created in 1960 to own & manage

commercial real estate

•  Elective choice under U.S. tax code •  Must distribute 90% of taxable income •  At least 75% of assets and income (rents, interest, sale gains) from real estate

•  Less than 30% of gross income can be property sales held less than 4 years •  Minimum 100 shareholders

•  No more than 50% of shares held by five or fewer investors

•  Income is taxed at shareholder level (dividends)

•  Mostly Equity REITs (some debt and hybird)

•  Most traded on NYSE

Page 4: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

The Modern Real Estate Evolution Beginning in the early 1990s, the real estate asset class grew from a sector market capitalization of around $10 billion to approximately $314 billion in 1Q2010.

Page 5: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT

General Partner

LP #1 LP #2 LP #3

Umbrella Partnership

Umbrella Partnership Units = Stock Shares

729 exchange 729 exchange 729 exchange

UP Share To Stock Share = Taxable exchange

Page 6: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Market Capitalization Growth of Public Equity REITs Growth of the REIT Market

Source: NAREIT data as of 01/31/2010. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. The NAREIT data shown reflects market capitalization of the public U.S. real estate investment trust market. REITs included in this data are publicly traded.

Page 7: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT History •  Formed by an act of Congress in 1960 •  Construction Mortgage REITs in early 1970s •  Ignored due to Limited Partnerships in 1970s & 80s •  1986 Tax Act Allowed Active Internal Management •  Kimco REIT started new ERA in 1991 •  1992 FFO Established •  Taubman created UPREIT in 1992 •  Growth was key to success in 1990s = Mega REITs •  1999 FFO revised •  2000 Taxable REIT subsidiaries allowed •  2000 added BACK into S&P 500 •  2009 REITs raise $28 Billion in equity (largest ever)

Page 8: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Why REITs Benefit the Real Estate Industry

•  Access to Public Market Capital •  Professional Management •  Longer term investment focus = better prop mgt •  Managers aligned with stockholders •  Heavily Researched (over 500 REIT analysts)

•  Lower Leverage (50% for REITs vs. 75% for private RE)

•  Real Time Pricing •  Dividend Discipline •  Liquidity

Page 9: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Growth in # Companies and $ Size of Companies

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Equity REIT Market Capitalization (December 1971 - December 2011)

REIT Market Capitalization

# of Equity REITs

Billions of dollars

Page 10: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Growth in Company Size

Number of Companies

Source: NAREIT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Under $100M $100- $500M $500 - $999M $1.0 - $1.9B $2.0B - $3.9B Over $4B

REIT Market Capitalization - Size Distribution

1991 - 136 REITs

2005 - 191 REITs

2007 - 121 REITs

2009 - 113 REITs

2010 - 150 REITs

2011 - 162 REITs

Page 11: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: NAREIT

Historic Market Capitalization Growth

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

US

Dol

lars

(mill

ions

)

Market Cap - All

Market Cap - Equity

Market Cap - Mortgage

Market Cap - Hybrid

Page 12: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Improving Liquidity for Large Trades

Source: NAREIT

Page 13: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Indexed at December 1980 = 100

Source: NAREIT®

REITs Provide Inflation Protection - (Capital Preservation)

Equity REIT Price Index versus CPI

80100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380400420440460480500520540560

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

NAREIT Equity Price Index (Indexed)

CPI (Seasonally Adjusted) (Indexed)

Indexed at December 1980 = 100.0

Page 14: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Real Estate Total Return- an Inflation Hedge

Source: NAREIT®, NCREIF, BLS, Mueller

100

200

300

400

500

600

NAREIT

NCREIF

CPI

Page 15: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Capital Raising Strong .

Page 16: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Capital Raising Strong

Page 17: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: Morningstar Inc., Financial Communications. ©2010 All rights reserved. Used with permission. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500; Bonds are represented by a 20-year U.S. Government Bond; T-Bills are represented by a U.S. 30-day T-Bill; REITs are represented by the NAREIT Equity REIT Index, an unmanaged index reflecting performance of U.S. real estate investment trust market. The REITs included in this index are publicly traded. Risk is represented by standard deviation, which is a statistical measurement that depicts how widely returns varied over time. The measurement is generally used to predict and understand the range of returns that are most likely for a given investment. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. Industrial Income Trust is a non-traded REIT; therefore, this data should not be used as a comparison to, or an implication of, non-traded REIT performance. Investments in real estate may be subject to special risks associated with operating and leasing properties, as well as risks due to changes in economic conditions, interest rates, property values, and supply and demand, in addition to possible environmental liabilities, zoning issues and natural disasters.

Diversification Portfolio Benefits

Stock and Bond Investor January 1972 to December 2006

Portfolio Diversification

Page 18: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: © 2010 Morningstar. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500; Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. Government Bond; Cash is represented by a U.S. 30-day T-Bill; Direct real estate is represented by the MIT transaction-based index (TBI), a statistical methodology that produces estimates of price movements and total returns based on transactions of properties sold from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Property Index (NPI). The NPI is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors and is presented without leverage or fees. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. Risk is represented by standard deviation, which is a statistical measurement that depicts how widely returns varied over time. The measurement is generally used to predict and understand the range of returns that are most likely for a given investment. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. Investing in real estate entails certain risks, including changes in: the economy, supply and demand, laws, tenant turnover, interest rates (including periods of high interest rates), availability of mortgage funds, operating expenses and cost of insurance. Some real estate investments offer limited liquidity options.

Potential to Reduce Risk and Increase Risk-Adjusted Return January 1985 to December 2009

0% Direct Real Estate with 10% Direct Real Estate

Portfolio Diversification

with 20% Direct Real Estate

Page 19: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

J-53

J-55

J-57

J-59

J-61

J-63

J-65

J-67

J-69

J-71

J-73

J-75

J-77

J-79

J-81

J-83

J-85

J-87

J-89

J-91

J-93

J-95

J-97

J-99

J-01

J-03

J-05

J-07

J-09

J-11

Yiel

d

Bond Values DROP as Interest Rates Rise

* As of October 31, 2011. Source: U.S. Treasury — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

LT Average 6.35%

Average Total Return 80-11 = 8.8%

Average Total Return 53-70 = 1.9%

Average Total Return 53-80 = 3.9%

Page 20: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Real Estate Provides Inflation Protection

Source: NAREIT, NCREIF, BLS, and Mueller

-­‐40.00  

-­‐30.00  

-­‐20.00  

-­‐10.00  

0.00  

10.00  

20.00  

30.00  

40.00  

50.00  

1972   1975   1978   1981   1984   1987   1990   1993   1996   1999   2002   2005   2008   2011  

NAREIT  &  NCREIF  Yearly  Returns  vs  Infla7on  

NAREIT  (Avg=13.54)   NCREIF  (Avg=9.35)   Infla7on  (Avg=4.47)  

Page 21: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1978

Q4

1979

Q4

1980

Q4

1981

Q4

1982

Q4

1983

Q4

1984

Q4

1985

Q4

1986

Q4

1987

Q4

1988

Q4

1989

Q4

1990

Q4

1991

Q4

1992

Q4

1993

Q4

1994

Q4

1995

Q4

1996

Q4

1997

Q4

1998

Q4

1999

Q4

2000

Q4

2001

Q4

2002

Q4

2003

Q4

2004

Q4

2005

Q4

2006

Q4

2007

Q4

2008

Q4

2009

Q4

2010

Q4

2011

Q4

33 year Cumulative Total Returns NAREIT Equity REIT NCREIF Nasdaq S&P 500 S&P Utilities Russell 2000 Dow Jones Industrial Average Govt / Corp Mortgage

REITs best 33-year return

Best Cumulative Total Return Over Past 33 Years

Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ.

Page 22: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Long-Term Wealth Preservation

1 Sources: NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries), Bloomberg, Lehman, RCG. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of the 500 largest stocks (in terms of market value), weighted by market capitalization and considered representative of the broad stock market. The Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific indices that are calculated and reported on a regular basis.

“Up” and “Down” Years For Direct Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds 1934 to 20101

Page 23: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITS and Real Estate Improve the Efficient Frontier

in a Historic Mixed Asset Portfolio

Bond TOTAL Returns Expected to be low From a low interest rate starting point

REITs have beat inflation

And had low correlation with stocks

Page 24: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

1972–1981 1982–1991 1992–2001

Small Stocks 0.64 0.67 0.26

Large Stocks 0.74 0.74 0.30

LT Bonds 0.16 0.28 0.08

Declining Equity REIT Correlation Monthly correlation of REIT total returns to other types of investments

Source: REITs—NAREIT Equity Index; Small Stocks—Ibbotson U.S. Small Stock Series; Large Stocks—Standard & Poor’s 500®; LT Bonds—20-year U.S. Government Bond.

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1-1-

95

1-1-

96

1-1-

97

1-1-

98

1-1-

99

1-1-

00

1-1-

01

1-1-

02

1-1-

03

1-1-

04

1-1-

05

1-1-

06

1-1-

07

1-1-

08

1-1-

09

1-1-

10

1-1-

11

60 Month Rolling Correlation of Equity REIT and S&P 500 Total Returns (December 1994 - December 2011)

Correlation Coefficient

Page 25: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner
Page 26: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Low Correlations Changed

Source: SNL Data source

Page 27: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

9.09

12.5

9.76

6.58

11.1

927

.07

12.4

5

17.2

1

13.1

8

16.7

4

14.3

17.8

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Long-Term Gov't Bond NCREIF NASDAQ Composite Equity REITs S&P 500 Russell 2000

28-Year Compound Annual Returns and Standard Deviation of Annual Returns

Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Ibbotson Associates, NASDAQ. 1972 since it is the year the NAREIT Index started. NCREIF and NASDAQ series began January 1979. Equity REITs are price appreciation only.

Compound Annual Total Returns 1972-2000 Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 1972-2000

Page 28: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

30-Year Compound Annual Returns and Standard Deviation of Annual Returns

Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Ibbotson Associates, NASDAQ. 1972 since it is the year the NAREIT Index started. NCREIF and NASDAQ series began January 1979. Equity REITs are price appreciation only.

Compound Annual Total Returns 1972-2002 Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 1972-2002

9.3 11

.8

9.54

6.35

826

.4

12.3

5 14.6

10.6

6

17

14.2

25.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Long-Term Gov'tBond

NCREIF NASDAQ Composite Equity REITs S&P 500 Russell 2000

Page 29: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

8.39 9.15

13.31 11.89 11.22 12.05

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

NC

REI

F

Gov

't/C

orp

NA

REI

T Eq

uity

S&P

500

RU

SSEL

L 20

00

NA

SDA

Q

39 Year Index Return Comparisons 1972-2011 One Standard Deviaton 68% Confidence Intervals

Actual Loss

10% Target Return

Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ.

Risk = How Much Loss

Page 30: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

8.14 9.22

13.22 11.98 11.43 12.29

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

NC

REI

F

Gov

't/C

orp

NA

REI

T Eq

uity

S&P

500

RU

SSEL

L 20

00

NA

SDA

Q

39 Year Index Return Comparisons 1972-2010 One Standard Deviaton 68% Confidence Intervals

Sources: NCREIF, SLH Corp Bond Index, NAREIT, S&P, Frank Russell, NASDAQ. Particular investments may contain risks not illustrated by its associated index. This is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any particular investment or future results.

Risk = How Much Loss Index Return Comparisons

1981 – 2010 One Standard Deviation 68% Confidence Intervals

Page 31: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT % Value Share of Major Indexes

7.16%

1.82% 1.70% 1.69%

0.39%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Russell 2000 S&P SmallCap

Wilshire 5000 S&P Mid-Cap400

S&P 500

Source: Frank Russell Company; Bloomberg as of 2004

Page 32: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITs Invest in All Property Types Property Sector Percent Residential 19 Office Buildings 18 Shopping Centers 14 Regional Malls 13 Diversified 7 Industrial Facilities 6 Mixed (Industrial and Office) 6 Health Care 5 Specialty 6 Lodging/Resorts 4 Self Storage

4 June 30, 2003

Source: NAREIT

Page 33: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: NAREIT 12-2011

NAREIT Equity Index Property Composition

Residen4al,  17%  

Office,  11%  

Off/Ind,  2%  

Industrial,  4%  

Regional  Malls,  16%  

Free  Stand  Retail,  2%  

Shopping  Centers,  8%  

Diversified,  8%  

Healthcare,  13%  

Self  Storage,  7%  

Timber,  5%  Hotel,  6%  

NAREIT  Index  Property  Type  

Page 34: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Return Performance Volatility

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 DOW Jones Ind S&P 500 NAREIT Equity

%

1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 20 year 30 year

Sources: NASDAQ, Frank Russell, Dow Jones, S& P, NAREIT

REITs exhibit consistent return performance 1976-2006

10% Target

Page 35: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

* Time period based off of trailing Four-Quarter Annualized Returns from 4Q09. Source: NAREIT, January 2010 and NCREIF. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only, and does not reflect the actual return of a specific investment. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Property Index (NPI) is an index of quarterly returns reported by institutional investors on investment grade commercial properties owned by those investors. The NPI is used as an industry benchmark to compare an investor’s own returns against the industry average and does not include leverage or fees. Although not a measure of non-traded REIT performance, the NPI is an accepted index for the purpose of evaluating the relative volatility of an investment in non-traded REITs. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of the 500 largest stocks (in terms of market value), weighted by market capitalization and considered representative of the broad stock market. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index of the smallest 2,000 securities in the Russell 3000 Index, and considered representative of the U.S. small-cap equity universe. The NASDAQ Composite represents all stocks that trade on the NASDAQ stock market, weighted by capitalization, and is considered representative of the broad equity market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. These indices are used in comparison to the NPI in order to illustrate the differences in historical total returns generated by direct commercial real estate, stocks and bonds. Investors cannot invest directly into any index. 1 Price-only returns are listed for the NASDAQ Composite.

Historic Performance

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 DOW Jones Ind S&P 500 NAREIT Equity

%

Return Performance Volatility 1981 - 2011

1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 20 year 30 year

Page 36: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT Dividend Growth averaged 48% higher than CPI over 23 years

Percent

Source: NAREIT (REIT dividends) & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2.4

7.5 7.1

5.4

2.6

5.4

7.0

6.0

6.8

4.9

7.4 8.0

7.7

6.8

3.8

1.9

5.2 5.8

5.4 5.5

7.4

4.7

-1.0

9.0

4.4 4.4 4.6

6.1

3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5

3.3

1.7 1.6

2.7

3.4

1.6

2.4 1.9

3.3 3.4

2.5

4.1

0.1

2.8

1.6

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Gro

wth

(%)

Equity REIT Dividend Growth versus CPI 1987-2010

NAREIT Equity REIT Dividend Growth (Average = 5.52%)

Consumer Price Index CPI-U - Seasonally Adjusted (Avg 2.91%)

Page 37: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource, and Mueller

31-Year Public Equity REIT Return Composition

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0 19

81

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Equity REIT Return Composition (through year-end 2010)

Price Change (%)

Income (%)

Total Return (%) LR Average Price Return: 6.05% LR Average Dividend Return: 7.40% LR Average Total Return: 13.34%

Page 38: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: NAREIT, SNL Data Source and Mueller

Always Positive FFO Growth 30 -Year Equity REIT Price Change Composition

Page 39: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1972

19

73

1974

19

75

1976

19

77

1978

19

79

1980

19

81

1982

19

83

1984

19

85

1986

19

87

1988

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

Composite REIT Leverage (1972 - 2011)

Source: SNL Datasource.

REIT Leverage Low and Conservative REIT Leverage Low and Conservative

Page 40: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

FFO Payout Ratio Analysis Trailing Twelve Month Dividend/Trailing Month FFO

Source: SNL Datasource

Lower Payouts Provide Safer Dividend Coverage

Page 41: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Fund Flows Drive Stock Prices – Short Term REIT Mutual Funds Flows vs. Sector Performance

$(2.1)

$(1.7)

$(1.3)

$(.9)

$(.5)

$(.1)

$.3

$.7

$1.1

$1.5

$1.9

$2.3

$2.7

Mar

-96

Jul-9

6

Nov

-96

Mar

-97

Jul-9

7

Nov

-97

Mar

-98

Jul-9

8

Nov

-98

Mar

-99

Jul-9

9

Nov

-99

Mar

-00

Jul-0

0

Nov

-00

Mar

-01

Jul-0

1N

ov-0

1

Mar

-02

Jul-0

2

Nov

-02

Mar

-03

Jul-0

3N

ov-0

3

Mar

-04

Jul-0

4N

ov-0

4

Mar

-05

Jul-0

5

Nov

-05

Mar

-06

Jul-0

6N

ov-0

6

Mar

-07

Jul-0

7

Nov

-07

Mar

-08

Jul-0

8

Nov

-08

Mar

-09

Fund

s Fl

ows

to D

edic

ated

REI

T M

utua

l Fun

ds ($

Bill

ions

)

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

RM

S REIT Index

Monthly Net REIT Funds Flows RMS Index

As of 0f 3/23/2009RMS: 441.92

Page 42: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

4 8 12 16

Efficient Frontiers 25 Year Returns

Stocks & Bonds

w/ REITs

w/ R.E.w/ R.E. & REITs

Mtg

Russell 2000NASDAQ

S&P 500

REITs

D.J Ind

BondsNCREIF

Utilities

25 Year Risk Reward

Source: Mueller & Mueller, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 2003

Page 43: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITs ACT as a Different Asset Class

Source: NAREIT

Correlation and Risk-Adjusted Performanceof REIT and Stock Market Indexes

Monthly Total Returns, 7/92 - 6/07

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Correlation with Dow Jones Wilshire 5000

Shar

pe R

atio

REIT Indexes Stock Market Sector and Style IndexesCommodity Indexes Aggregate Bond Index

Value Stocks

Utility Stocks

Large-Cap Growth Stocks

Energy Stocks

Growth Stocks

REITs

Commodities

Bonds

S&P

Page 44: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Dividend Increasers Outperform 2002 - 2004 REIT Total Return Grouped by Dividend Policy

12.5%

3.6%

-3.4%

42.6%

32.5%

18.8%

36.8%

25.0%

4.7%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Dividend Increase Dividend Same Dividend Decrease

Tota

l Ret

urn

2002 2003 2004

Source: SNL,

Page 45: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

7x

8x

9x

10x

11x

12x

13x

14x

15x

16x

17x

18x

19x

20x

21x

1981

19

82

1983

19

84

1985

19

86

1987

19

88

1989

19

90

1991

19

92

1993

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

2001

20

02

2003

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

FFO Multiples Forward & Trailing

LT Trailing Average: 13.1x

At 12/31/11 Trailing premium to LT Trailing Avg: 41.1% Forward premium to LT Forward Avg: 46.3%

10 Year Trailing Average: 15.0x x

REIT Multiples Above LT Average

Source: SNL

10 Years Above Average

Page 46: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Institutional Price Movements NCREIF Current Value Cap Rates (Appraisal Based)

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Cap

Rate

s

C urrent  Value  C ap  R ate

Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries – NCREIF

LT Average = 7.63%

Page 47: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Property Price Movements

Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago

8.5 Office - CBD8.9 Office - suburban8.5 Industrial - Warehouse9.0 Industrial - R&D8.0 Apartments

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Historic Cap Rates

Office - CBD Office - suburban Industrial - Warehouse Industrial - R&D Apartments

Page 48: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Property Price Movements

Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago

10.2 Hotels7.9 Regional Mall8.9 Power Center8.7 Neighborhood Comm.

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Historic Cap Rates

Hotels Regional Mall Power Center Neighborhood Comm.

Page 49: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

FFO to Cap Rate Conversion

1/FFO = Cap Rate

10.0x = 10

11.1x = 9

12.5x = 8

14.3x = 7

16.7x = 6

Page 50: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITs Trading Below Private Market Pricing

Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource

REIT NAV Premium / Discount at 8.5% Cap Rate

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

Mar-80

Mar-81

Mar-82

Mar-83

Mar-84

Mar-85

Mar-86

Mar-87

Mar-88

Mar-89

Mar-90

Mar-91

Mar-92

Mar-93

Mar-94

Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Page 51: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REITs are trading at an implied cap rate (the cap rate at which NAV equals the current share price) of almost 9%.

Where Should Real Estate be Valued?

Implied Cap Rates & Corporate Bond Yields

8.8%

7.8%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-03

1-04

1-05

1-06

1-07

1-08

1-09

Implied Cap Rate Baa-rated Long-term Corp Bonds

Source: NAREIT, SNL Datasource

Page 52: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Office vs REIT Cap Rates

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00M

ar-9

4

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Office Cap REIT Cap

Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research

Page 53: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Industrial vs REIT Cap Rates

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00M

ar-9

4

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Ind Cap REIT Cap

Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research

Page 54: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Retail vs REIT Cap Rates

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0M

ar-9

4

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Retail Cap REIT Cap

Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research

Page 55: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Multimamily vs REIT Cap Rates

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0M

ar-9

4

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

MF Cap REIT Cap

Source: NAREIT, SNL, Real Estate Research

Page 56: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Proxy for IRR expectations = economic cap rates + intermediate-term growth + long-term growth (expected inflation less 110 basis points). Inflation source: Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source for Mortgage Rates: American Council of Life Insurers and Green Street.

IRR Expectations vs. Commercial Mortgage Rates

9.2%

7.5%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

1-86

1-88

1-90

1-92

1-94

1-96

1-98

1-00

1-02

1-04

1-06

1-08

IRR Expectations Commercial Mtg Rate

Key assumption underlying IRRs: Prices are already down by 35-40%.

That’s more than most think.

q  By combining historic cap rate, intermediate growth, and inflation expectations, it is possible to construct a time series of the unleveraged returns that real estate investors historically have expected to achieve.

Where Should Real Estate be Valued?

Page 57: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Return Premiums on Real EstateUnleveraged IRR Expectations minus Borrowing Rates

172 bp

Avg = 180 bp

0 bp

50 bp

100 bp

150 bp

200 bp

250 bp

300 bp

350 bp

400 bp

1-86

1-88

1-90

1-92

1-94

1-96

1-98

1-00

1-02

1-04

1-06

1-08

q  Historically, return (IRR) expectations have substantially exceeded borrowing rates. Assuming that values are down 35-40%, the spread is now about back to normal. Real estate is fairly valued if prices are down this much.

Where Should Real Estate be Valued?

Page 58: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Most current numbers (12/31/99)

Source: NAREIT, NCREIF

NAREIT Equity REIT Index

NCREIF Index

Total Return Analysis NCREIF vs NAREIT 1970 to 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NAREIT NCREIF

Page 59: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

3 Components of Real Estate Return

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sep-90

Sep-91

Sep-92

Sep-93

Sep-94

Sep-95

Sep-96

Sep-97

NCREIF = Real Estate Return

Leverage

United Asset Mgt = Management

REIT Return (All 3 Components)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sep-90

Sep-91

Sep-92

Sep-93

Sep-94

Sep-95

Sep-96

Sep-97

NAREIT

Page 60: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Private vs Public Pricing

Return Components 1995 - 2004

8 7

2 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NCREIF Equity REITs Income Return Capital Appreciation

Source: NAREIT, NCREIF

Page 61: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

1960 – REIT established in US

Early 1980s – UK adopts REIT structure

Mid 1980s – Dutch and Canadians adopt REITs

Late 1980s – Japanese adopt JREIT

Early 1990s – Dutch invest in US REITs

Mid 1990s – Germans adopt REITs

2000s – many countries adopt REIT format

REIT evolve Globally

Page 62: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

§  Australia §  Belgium §  Bulgaria §  Canada §  France §  Germany §  Hong Kong

§  Israel §  Italy §  Japan §  Korea §  Malaysia §  Mexico §  Netherlands

§  New Zealand §  Singapore §  South Korea §  Taiwan §  Thailand §  Turkey §  United Kingdom

REIT Legislation Under Discussion 2009/10:

§ Finland § India

§ Pakistan § Spain

Countries with REIT Legislation

Page 63: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 1月

-84

1月-8

6

1月-8

8

1月-9

0

1月-9

2

1月-9

4

1月-9

6

1月-9

8

1月-0

0

1月-0

2

1月-0

4

1月-0

6

1月-0

8

1月-1

0

# Companies by Region

America Asia Europe

Source: Global Property Research

Page 64: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: Global Property Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1月-8

4

1月-8

6

1月-8

8

1月-9

0

1月-9

2

1月-9

4

1月-9

6

1月-9

8

1月-0

0

1月-0

2

1月-0

4

1月-0

6

1月-0

8

1月-1

0

# Companies America

Canada Mexico

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1月-8

4

1月-8

6

1月-8

8

1月-9

0

1月-9

2

1月-9

4

1月-9

6

1月-9

8

1月-0

0

1月-0

2

1月-0

4

1月-0

6

1月-0

8

1月-1

0

# Companies Europe

France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1月-8

4

1月-8

6

1月-8

8

1月-9

0

1月-9

2

1月-9

4

1月-9

6

1月-9

8

1月-0

0

1月-0

2

1月-0

4

1月-0

6

1月-0

8

1月-1

0

# Companies Asia

Australia Hong Kong Japan Singapore

Page 65: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: Global Property Research

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

12月

-83

12月

-85

12月

-87

12月

-89

12月

-91

12月

-93

12月

-95

12月

-97

12月

-99

12月

-01

12月

-03

12月

-05

12月

-07

12月

-09

Cumulative Returns Regions

America Asia Europe

Page 66: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: Global Property Research

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

12月

-83

12月

-85

12月

-87

12月

-89

12月

-91

12月

-93

12月

-95

12月

-97

12月

-99

12月

-01

12月

-03

12月

-05

12月

-07

12月

-09

Cumulative Returns Asia

Australia Hong Kong Japan Singapore

-

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

1-12月

-83

1-10月

-85

1-8月

-87

1-6月

-89

1-4月

-91

1-2月

-93

1-12月

-94

1-10月

-96

1-8月

-98

1-6月

-00

1-4月

-02

1-2月

-04

1-12月

-05

1-10月

-07

1-8月

-09

Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Spain Sweden Switzerland

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1-12月

-83

1-8月

-85

1-4月

-87

1-12月

-88

1-8月

-90

1-4月

-92

1-12月

-93

1-8月

-95

1-4月

-97

1-12月

-98

1-8月

-00

1-4月

-02

1-12月

-03

1-8月

-05

1-4月

-07

1-12月

-08

Brazil

Canada

Mexico

United States

Page 67: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Source: Global Property Research

y = 2E+07x - 7E+11 R² = 0.85007

0

10,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

70,000,000,000

7月-99

10月-99

1月-00

4月-00

7月-00

10月-00

1月-01

4月-01

7月-01

10月-01

1月-02

4月-02

7月-02

10月-02

1月-03

4月-03

7月-03

10月-03

1月-04

4月-04

7月-04

10月-04

1月-05

4月-05

7月-05

10月-05

Agg

rega

te V

olum

e

Page 68: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

GPR in comparison

GPR FTSE/EPRA NAREIT S&P/Citigroup

Inclusion Criteria

Membership N/A N/A N/A

Property Activity >75% operational turnover >25% from rent

>75% EBITDA (>60% for Asia region)

>60% revenue from rent

Size >US$ 50m North America: >US$ 200m Europe: >€ 50m Asia: >US$ 100m

>US$ 100m

Liquidity (turnover p/a)

250 most liquid stocks North America: >US$ 100m Europe: >€ 25m Asia: >US$ 100m

>US$ 25m

Index Construction

Country Allocation Primary listing Primary listing Decided on a case-by-case basis

Weighting Free float Free float Free float

Pricing Frequency Daily Daily Daily

Revision Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Annually

Source: “Benchmarking Global Listed Property”, Russell Research, March 2008

Page 69: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Benchmarks comparison

31 May 2010 GPR General GPR General Quoted GPR 250 GPR 250 REIT

Number of countries

Global 31 31 26 15

Africa 1 1 1 1

Americas 3 3 3 2

Asia 11 11 6 4

Europe 16 16 14 6

Oceania 2 2

31 May 2010 GPR General GPR General Quoted GPR 250 GPR 250 REIT

Number of stocks

Global 475 428 250 183

Africa 17 17 8 2

Americas 136 135 111 105

Asia 140 140 55 31

Europe 182 136 59 28

Oceania 17 17

For updated information, please contact [email protected].

Page 70: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

ASIA REIT Markets 2010

Source: SNL data source

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Japan Hong Kong Singapore Austrailia India New Zealand

Number of Public Companies

Page 71: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

ASIA REIT Markets 2010

Source: SNL data source

2077

1439

943 836

607

431

166 102 46 22 3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Japan Australia China Hong Kong

Singapore India New Zealand

Malaysia Thailand South Korea

Taiwan

Number of properties by EAE Country

Page 72: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

ASIA REIT Markets 2010

Source: SNL data source

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 EAE Properties by Property Focus

Page 73: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

ASIA REIT Markets 2010

-15.9 -16.3 -20.7 -28.2

-36.7 -37.4

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40 G

loba

l Med

ian

Sing

apor

e

New

Zea

land

Japa

n

Aus

tral

ia

Hon

g K

ong

Global real estate median premium/(discount) to NAV (%)*

As  of  June  1  *Calculated  using  reported  NAV.    Reported  NAV  will  take  the  following  priority:  NAV  per  share,  Diluted  NAV  per  share,  EPRA  Diluted  NAV  per  share,  EPRA  Diluted  NNNAV  per  share.  Global  medians  include  all  covered  Real  Estate  companies  and  is  not  constrained  to  REITs.  Asia-­‐Pacific  company  values  are  based  on  June  1  close.  Source:  SNL  Financial  

Source: SNL data source

Page 74: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

HOW TO ANALYZE A REIT STOCK Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D.

University of Denver

Professor

&

Dividend Capital Group

Real Estate Investment Strategist

Page 75: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

The REIT Industry Today

•  160 REITs: –  134 equity REITs (largest REIT $36 billion market cap)

–  26 mortgage & hybrid REITs

•  Over $800 billion of real estate

•  Own 10% of U.S. Institutional real estate

•  All major property types and cities

•  Improving liquidity (S&P additions, company consolidations)

•  Financial leverage with investment grade status

•  Distinguished by Property Type & Geography

•  Viable for both large and small investors

Page 76: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Percentage of Real Estate held by REITs as of December 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Malls

Hotels

Retail

Apartm

ent

Warehouse

Office

200219971960-96

Sources: F.W. Dodge, SNL REIT Securities Database, Wilshire Associates R.E. Securities Index, Bloomberg REOC Index, CB Commercial - Torto Wheaton Research, Smith Travel, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Research Bureau and Prudential Real Estate Investors Research

30.7%

7.9% 6.6% 7.2%

18.8%

12.6%

REITs control $300 billion (5%) of $6 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market

Page 77: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT Stock Selection

•  Real Estate Fundamentals - Physical Market Cycle •  Pricing - Current sector multiples vs. industry

•  Properties •  Management •  Capital Structure •  Stock Market’s Valuation

Bottom Up Process

Top Down Process

Page 78: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT Investment Criteria •  Property

–  Property / Sub-Market Location –  Age/Condition –  Tenant Quality –  Lease Structure (rollover risk) –  Market Demand/Supply Balance (where in Cycle) –  Market Occupancy Forecast –  Rent Growth Potential –  Occupancy, Rent Growth & Acquisitions DRIVE Rent Growth

Page 79: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT Investment Criteria •  Management

– Ability to Create Value (growth strategies) •  Acquisition •  Development •  Rehabilitation •  Property Management •  Leasing

– Organization Structure •  Management Focus •  Conflicts of Interest •  Insider Ownership (highest % of any stock sector) •  Corporate Governance -Board of Directors

Page 80: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Bottom Up Capital Structure Analysis •  Capital Structure

–  Financial Strength (FFO and FAD) –  Dividend Coverage

•  Equity Structure –  Debt / Total Market Capitalization Ratio –  Operating Partnership Units –  Preferred Stock & Convertible Preferred –  Management Ownership & Control

•  Debt Structure –  Fixed Debt % and Terms –  Floating Debt % and Terms

•  Hybrids and Mergers

Page 81: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Bottom Up Stock Price Analysis

•  Peer Group Analysis – Dividend Yield – FFO Growth – FFO Multiple – FFO Growth to Multiple Ratio vs. Peers – AFFO / FAD

•  Objective & Subjective Factor Analysis •  Market Trend Impacts

Page 82: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Name Symbol Price Dividend  Yield Low High Market  Cap  ($M) Debt/Market  Cap 2007 2008Hersha  Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20   $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4

Sunstone  Hotel  Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67   $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3Ashford  Hospitality  Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48   $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3

FelCor  Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50   $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7LaSalle  Hotel  Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75   $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6

52  Week FFO  Growth

Name Symbol Price Dividend  Yield Low High Market  Cap  ($M) Debt/Market  Cap 2007 2008Ashford  Hospitality  Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48   $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3

Hersha  Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20   $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4FelCor  Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50   $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7

Sunstone  Hotel  Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67   $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3LaSalle  Hotel  Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75   $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6

52  Week FFO  Growth

By  Dividend  Yield

By  Debt/Total  Market  Cap

By  2007  FFO  Growth

Comparison  Table

Name Symbol Price Dividend  Yield Low High Market  Cap  ($M) Debt/Market  Cap 2007 2008LaSalle  Hotel  Properties LHO $36.85 5.54% $36.27 $49.75   $1,477.30 28.70% 9.7 19.6

Hersha  Hospitality HT $10.27 7.01% $9.73 $14.20   $413.10 37.70% 18.0 14.4FelCor  Lodging FCH $17.70 6.78% $17.50 $29.50   $1,105.20 44.00% 13.1 23.7

Sunstone  Hotel  Investors SHO $23.71 5.90% $23.32 $30.67   $1,407.00 44.90% 15.8 18.3Ashford  Hospitality  Trust AHT $8.07 10.41% $7.33 $13.48   $990.57 53.90% 13.9 7.3

52  Week FFO  Growth

Hotel  REITs

Page 83: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Hotel  REITs

6

78

910

1112

1314

15

0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21

FFO Growth

Cur

rent

FFO

Mul

tiple

HPT AHT

HT

SHO FCH

HST

ENN BEE

LHO

AHT – Ashford Hospitality Trust HT – Hersha Hospitality

LHO – LaSalle Hotel Properties SHO – Sunstone Hotel Investors

FCH – FelCor Lodging

Over Priced REITs

Under Priced REITs

Page 84: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Market  Cycle  Position

Jacksonville Long Island+2 Nashville Orange County Philadelphia Riverside-1 San Francisco+1 Wash DC W. Palm Beach

Dallas Ft. Lauderdale Las Vegas Memphis Milwaukee-1 Minneapolis Oklahoma City Orlando+1 Portland Sacramento San Jose+2 Stamford+1

Hartford New Orleans N. New Jersey Cleveland

Source: Mueller, 2007

14 6 7

8 9 12

13

1 15 16

5 4 3 2 1

11 10

LT Average Occupancy

2nd Quarter, 2007

Columbus Detroit

Kansas City St. Louis

Atlanta Charlotte Chicago Denver+1 East Bay+1 Miami Norfolk Raleigh-Durham Richmond+1 San Antonio Salt Lake Seattle Tampa NATION

Austin Honolulu Houston+1 Los Angeles New York Phoenix San Diego

AHT = Red

HT = Blue

FCH = Green

SHO = Orange

LHO = Brown

Phase  1  -­‐‑  Recovery

Phase  2  -­‐‑  Expansion Phase  3  –  

Hyper-­‐‑Supply

Phase  4  -­‐‑  Recession

Page 85: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

By  Dividend  Yield

By  Debt/Total  Market  Cap

By  2007/2008  FFO  Growth

Comparison  Tables

Company Name Ticker Price

CurrentDividend

Yield(%) Price/FFO

TotalCapitalization

($M)

TotalDebt/Gtotal Market

Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO

Provected GrowthMI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%ProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%

Company Name Ticker Price

CurrentDividend

Yield(%) Price/FFO

TotalCapitalization

($M)

TotalDebt/Gtotal Market

Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO

Provected GrowthFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%ProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%MI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%

Company Name Ticker Price

CurrentDividend

Yield(%) Price/FFO

TotalCapitalization

($M)

TotalDebt/Gtotal Market

Capitalization2007/2008 Average FFO

Provected GrowthProLogis PLD $ 67.32 2.73 15.20 $ 27,582 54.52 13.4%DCT Industrial Trust Inc. DCT $ 10.47 6.11 15.20 $ 3,177 38.84 11.1%MI Developments Inc. MIM $ 31.50 - 10.90 $ 2,111 24.83 8.9%First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. FR $ 37.95 7.48 8.40 $ 4,056 59.35 8.1%Average: 5.33 12.90 $ 3,619 47.27 7.6%First Potomac Realty Trust FPO $ 19.59 6.94 11.80 $ 1,156 NA 7.5%EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP $ 45.14 4.43 14.70 $ 1,671 52.24 7.3%AMB Property Corporation AMB $ 60.94 3.28 17.60 $ 10,026 50.86 3.2%Liberty Property Trust LRY $ 35.15 7.11 11.80 $ 6,403 56.72 1.5%

Industrial  REITs

Page 86: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Industrial  REITs

LRY – Liberty Property Trust FPO – First Potamic Realty Trust

FR – First Industrial Realty Trust MIM - MI Developments Inc.

AMB – AMB Property Corporation DCT - DCT Industrial Trust Inc

EGP – East Group Properties PLD - ProLogis

LRY

AMB EGP

FPO

FR

MIM

DCT PLD

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

Industrial Sector

-2.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16

Average FFO Forecast

Cu

rren

t FFO

Mu

ltip

le

Page 87: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Charlotte Dallas FW Denver+2

Jacksonville Long Island Memphis+1

Miami N. New Jersey

Richmond San Antonio

Wash DC NATION

Atlanta Baltimore Chicago Cincinnati Columbus Indianapolis Kansas City Milwaukee Minneapolis Nashville New York Norfolk Oklahoma City Orlando Raleigh-Durham

Source: Mueller, 2007

11

14 6 7

8 9

10 12

13

1 15

16 5 4 3 2 1

2nd Quarter, 2007

LT Average Occupancy

Market Cycle Position

Boston+1 Hartford

Honolulu Philadelphia

St. Louis Stamford

Cleveland Detroit-1 Pittsburgh Tampa

Austin-1 Ft. Lauderdale Portland Sacramento San Diego San Francisco San Jose+1

New Orleans+2 Phoenix

Houston Salt Lake Seattle-1

Orange County

East Bay Riverside W. Palm Beach

Las Vegas+3 Los Angeles+2

ProLogis - Red

AMB - Green

DCT - Blue Phase  2  -­‐‑  Expansion

Phase  1  -­‐‑  Recovery

Phase  3  –  Hyper-­‐‑Supply

Phase  4  -­‐‑  Recession

Page 88: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

REIT Analysis - Conclusion

•  Real Estate Fundamentals – Occupancies & Rents •  Management •  Capital Structure

Pricing Comes from

Earnings come from

•  Earning Growth Expectations (relative) •  Stock Market Emotions (love / hate / scared) •  Make your selections on a “within RE basis”

Page 89: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Real estate prices declined 42% in 2008 & 9 §  Tough for properties 70%+ financed at high prices

§  Low bond rates not readily available in current mortgage rates

§  Lower occupancy and rents stressed owners

2010, 2011, 2012 – recovery continues §  Occupancies then rents recovered – but at a slow pace

§  Mortgage maturities - extended in 2010 &11 - forced sales did not happen

§  Credit markets open to REITs – tight for private owners (60% LTV)

§  Prices increase in primary markets – still low in secondary & tertiary markets

Opportunities should Abound ? §  Low supply creates foundation of a solid recovery

§  Distressed owners & mortgage maturity are great buying opportunity

§  REITs with capital should be big winners

§  Real Estate is an inflation hedge…that should matter a lot someday

Summary

Page 90: Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Researchdankohlhepp.com/uploads/3/4/3/6/34366166/mueller_reit_101_3-201… · 1992 Umbrella Partnership REIT REIT General Partner

Outline of Presentation by Glenn R. Mueller Ph.D. •  Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts

•  History and Fundamentals of REITs

•  Performance of REIT investments

•  Risks and Rewards

•  How to analyze a REIT company Property Management Capital Structure Stock Valuation