"reaching voters where they are" - california labor federation microtargeting panel at...
DESCRIPTION
In 2012, California unions defeated Prop 32, an anti-union measure funded by the Koch Brothers and other corporate interests, by using a unique combination of sophisticated microtargeting and online advertising to supplement a traditional field and media campaign. This effort led to a 13-point victory and produced down-ticket effects, including passing Prop 30 (which taxes the rich) and capturing two-thirds Democratic majorities in the State legislature. This session at Netroots Nation 2013 discussed how labor used ground-breaking microtargeting online and in the field to connect with new and hard-to-reach younger voters who watch little TV or traditionally engage on political issues.TRANSCRIPT
Reaching Voters Where they Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Million More Voters: An Overview
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
The 2012 Campaign: Our Approach
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
• The goal:– Continue relationship with disengaged progressives– Win on issues that MMV targets care about
• Questions: – What issue(s) do we focus on?– Who do we communicate with?– How do we reach them?– What do we say?
The 2012 MMV Approach
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding
1. Exploratory Focus Groups
December 2011
Previous MMV
targets
“Make it clear that the initiative is deceptive and that corporate elites are using the initiative process to trick voters into giving them more power.”
2. Baseline Survey March 2012 Likely voters SuperPAC Expansion Act has greater uncertainty; Sales Tax Act has greater support.
3. Special Exemptions Focus Groups
April 2012 Likely voters “Exemption” beats “loophole”.
Best arguments :Cost, Unrestricted SuperPACs, Who’s Behind It
4. Special Exemptions Survey
May 2012 Likely voters
5. Microtargeting I June 2012 Likely voters Identify “persuadables”
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding
6. Phone EIP August 2012 Persuasion targets “Special Exemptions Act” increases recall
7. Persuasion Messaging Survey
September 2012
Persuasion targets The best “villain” depends on party
8. Microtargeting II September 2012 Likely voters Update model; create model for TV watching
9. GOTV Messaging Survey
September 2012
GOTV targets
“Special Exemptions Act” matters for likelihood of voting
10. Post-Election Survey
November 2012
Persuasion targets Did it work?!
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Taking it to the Field
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Field Campaign At a GlancePaid program • 14 field offices• 13 week program• 500+ field organizers (increased to 800+ for GOTV)• More than 720,000 contacts, over half a million NO on
32 IDs
Volunteer program – Alliance for a Better California partners hosted phoning & walks statewide • Over 65 different locations by GOTV
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Statewide Props 32/30 Vote by County
STATEWIDE VOTE
Prop NO YES
32 6,940,282 - 57% 5,328,207 - 43%
30 5,584,785 - 45% 6,902,562 - 55%
CaliforniaNov 2012Election
Prop 32
No
Yes
Prop 30
Yes
Norgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Field Campaign Components• Targeting & planning
• Convening & coordination of Alliance partners and allies with field programs
• Support & training for volunteer field programs of Alliance partners and allies
• Large-scale, paid direct voter contact operation
• Data collaboration and technology
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Lessons Learned
• Statewide scale for a statewide issue is key
• Tailoring plan & program to individual strengths & capacities of participating organizations was very effective
• Close collaboration of Alliance partners with field programs made us stronger & more efficient – volunteer programs, data management, divvying up work
• Good modeling, messaging & ads to amplify our message helped tremendously
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Direct Mail
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Nothing 32 Mail MMV MailNo TV
Nothing 32 MailSome Mail
TVNo MailSome TV
Nothing 32 Mail TV Only
No TV
Rarely Watch TV
4+ Hours Daily TV
Oppose Undecided Support
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchers
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchers
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Online Tools & Tactics
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Look Familiar to Anyone?
Plus, 56% of women and 65% of men skip TV commercials!
• rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Why Digital? Media Consumption Shifts Towards Digital
Digital is now the third most popular news consumption medium.
Video is a large part of this consumption pattern and growing larger
Pew Internet “How Media Consumption has changed since 2000” 6.24.10Pew Internet “Demographics of internet users” May 2011
Online Video Behavior
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Truly Integrated Targeting
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
• List Match: Swimming in the cookie pool– We didn’t approximate common targeting, we did it– List matching lets us customize ads, not shoot for lowest-
common denominator messaging like on TV
• Complementary display and banner ads– We got the impressions and impact we needed with the budget
we had
• Synchronous multi-channel communications– Online wasn’t a silo, and it wasn’t “new” media. It was an
interlocking piece of a broader voter contact program
Effective Ads for Our Targets
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Effective Ads in Post-TV World• Moving past TV does NOT mean moving past video…
• It means connecting with the public where they are, not where we wish they were…
• The right ad creative delivered to the right audience produces real results.
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Targeted outreach moved polling numbers
VOTER TARGETING WORKED: In late October, the under-35 demographic was behind in the polls. We used voter-file targeting to specifically isolate this group, and designed ad creative to appeal to a more youthful audience. This mirrored offline direct-mail efforts.
22% Swing: In the days following this change in strategy, we saw a movement of up to 22% in favorability for the NO side.
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
The 2012 Campaign: Results
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Proposition 32 Recall
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Proposition 32 Vote
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
How Many Voters Were Persuaded?
• MMV walk, phone, and mail persuasion accounts for about half the 1.64 million vote margin.
• Does not include online persuasion, GOTV, or network effects.
Mode Voters Contacted
Estimated Effect Net No Votes Percent of
Margin
MMV Walk 194,779 11.98% 46,669 2.8%
MMV Phone 556,837 4.07% 45,327 2.8%
MMV Mail 3,041,288 11.80% 717,744 43.7%
Total 3,792,904 — 809,740 49.3%
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Questions?
Reaching Voters Where They Are:
THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY
rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio