Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003 1

Naval Platform Control Systems:Naval Platform Control Systems: 2015 & Beyond 2015 & Beyond

Joseph FammeRangesh Kasturi

April 18, 1997

Note: This is a re-print of the 1997 slides used for the 11th International Naval Controls Conference presentation given by

Joseph Famme, April 18, 1997, made by ITE Inc, www.ITEinc.US, jfamme@ITEinc.US

Please see text of the associated technical paper given at the University of Southampton, UK

Mr. Famme is now President of ITE Inc.

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Time and ChangeTime and Change

Ten Years+ to design and build a ship for 30+ years service

The World keeps changing !

The Technology keeps changing !

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Population & Naval ManpowerPopulation & Naval Manpower

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Other

Industrial

Population Reference Bureau, United Nations World Bank 1996

The Life of Our Ship

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Population & Oil ProductionPopulation & Oil Production

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Oil Production

Oil Data: University of Colorado, School of Geology 1996

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Population & EconomicsPopulation & Economics

Is it true that economic competition pulls the trigger?

Should defense readiness be increasing or decreasing?

What are the implications for the naval profession?

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Agrarian Age to Quantum Mechanics?Agrarian Age to Quantum Mechanics?

Agrarian Age Industrial Revolution Information Age Quantum Mechanics ?????

Each Age Cycle gets shorter …..

How will we address the unknowable?

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Chaos TheoryChaos Theory

The fast pace of change challenges the social fabric

Economic disparities could pull the trigger

Not every one plays by the rules ?

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Violent and Surprise ThreatsViolent and Surprise Threats

New levels of international cooperation required

For all people, not just military units:

Continuous alert and readiness

Instantaneous response

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TechnologyTechnology

For Us … equals, for them !

Advanced hardware & software

Advanced Virtual Reality With a new name !

Personnel monitoring / communications

Laser weapons

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Ship Forms: Back to the FutureShip Forms: Back to the Future

1870: Jules Verne, “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea”

1910: The Great White Fleet

1997: High Speed Ships for the new electronics!

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... New (old) Hulls Forms!... New (old) Hulls Forms!

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Tonnage: 33Kts & 100k HPTonnage: 33Kts & 100k HP

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ConventionalHull

WavebreakerHull

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Fuel for 21st Century ShipsFuel for 21st Century Ships

Speed

Fuel demand

………..Fuel (Oil) ………………..available

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Computation Power - Life of ShipComputation Power - Life of Ship

Ship design and service life may span 50 years

The computation power will increase by several orders of magnitude

How do we plan? How do we educate

our children?

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Computational Power

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Bandwidth: The New FrontierBandwidth: The New Frontier

The next major driver for technology advance

Mr. Gilder says we haven’t seen anything yet

Everyone can be connected

Ubiquitous computing!

As if we were in the 1700’s and discussing space flight … who would believe us?

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Bandwidth

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Controls 2015 & BeyondControls 2015 & Beyond

Intelligent Sensors MEMS

Intelligent Automated Actuators Virtual Situational Awareness

Remote control 1/10th crew

Ubiquitous computing All persons - all equipment

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Cooperative Support CapabilityCooperative Support Capability

CEC to CSC !!!! Equipment sensors will become fully

intelligentsense own temp / pressures …perform own condition assessmentreport own condition permit equipment to cooperate with other equipment

support equipment that is mal-performingmodify operation to support platform goals and

constraints

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Platform Operator Associate Platform Operator Associate

Equipment / sensors system will use AI enhancement to support human objectives (goals) while conforming to directed constraints

Current DARPA program

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Smart PumpsSmart Pumps

Pump APump A

Pump BPump BPump CPump C Pump XPump X

TransceiverTransceiver

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Technology SummaryTechnology Summary

We don’t know … can’t know Who in the 1940s saw SPY-1 radar and

Cooperative Engagement - in full automatic?

Let’s try to guess ...

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Future ControlsFuture Controls

Requirements: Performance Total Battle Force (Theater) Systems Total Automation Damage Control Human Factors

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PerformancePerformance

Speed is everything

Stealth adds time, sometimes

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Battle Force SystemsBattle Force Systems

Everything and everyone is connected

Speed is everything Humans are a

liability … except for their strategic thinking ability

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Human FactorsHuman Factors

Humans are: Intelligent

But …

Too weak Too slow Too vulnerable Require enormous

logistical and medical support

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Damage ControlDamage Control

Passive … survivability built-in to the structure large areas of inert

space no life support

Active … adaptive and reactive

systems Remote and automated

control Decision aids

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Why Humans at All?Why Humans at All?

Intelligence: Strategy Tactics Intuition Anticipation Insight Reflection Lessons learned Situational Awareness

Things computers don’t do well… as yet!

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ConclusionsConclusions

Ships will not have the nostalgia of the pre-21st century

Ships will not be glamorous fighting vehicles like space wars

Ships: just a node in world-wide defense system … Sorry !

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ConclusionsConclusions

But the few left will be: Very, very FAST

Very, very high fire power

Worthy of our design and control systems