rd_2014_05

11
7/21/2019 RD_2014_05 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 1/11 A product of Russia Beyond The Headlines NEW COLD WAR, NEW SPACE RACE As the relations between Russia and the U.S. start to look more like a new Cold War due to the situa- tion in Ukraine, the potential for a new space race between the two countries is also becoming more realistic. After the Cold War ended, there were great expectations that Mos- cow and Washington would start ambitious joint space exploration projects while reinforcing each oth- er’s scientific and technical poten- Ekaterina Zabrovskaya Editor-in-Chief EDITOR’S NOTE AVAILABLE FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY tial. Now, however, the future of joint space exploration projects is in jeop- ardy. Read this thought-provoking Monthly memo to find out what the key areas where the U.S. and Rus- sia cooperate in space are as well as which areas of space cooperation may be strong enough to overcome mistrust over Ukraine. The author of this memo is Sergey Oznobishchev of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Also please do not hesitate to email me directly at [email protected]  with any questions or comments regarding this RD Monthly. RUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO | #10 | MAY 2014

Upload: gica-joe

Post on 12-Apr-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 1/11

A p r o d u c t o f R u s s i a B e y o n d T h e H e a d l i n e s

NEW COLD WAR,

NEW SPACE RACE

As the relations between Russia

and the U.S. start to look more like

a new Cold War due to the situa-

tion in Ukraine, the potential for a

new space race between the two

countries is also becoming more

realistic.

After the Cold War ended, there

were great expectations that Mos-

cow and Washington would start

ambitious joint space exploration

projects while reinforcing each oth-

er’s scientific and technical poten-

Ekaterina

Zabrovskaya

Editor-in-Chief

EDITOR’S NOTE

A VA I L A B L E F O R S U B S C R I B E R S O N L Y

tial. Now, however, the future of joint

space exploration projects is in jeop-

ardy. Read this thought-provoking

Monthly memo to find out what the

key areas where the U.S. and Rus-

sia cooperate in space are as well

as which areas of space cooperation

may be strong enough to overcome

mistrust over Ukraine.

The author of this memo is Sergey

Oznobishchev of the Institute for

World Economy and International

Relations (IMEMO).

Also please do not hesitate to

email me directly at

[email protected]  

with any questions or comments

regarding this RD Monthly.

R U S S I A D I R E C T M O N T H L Y M E M O | # 1 0 | M A Y 2 0 1 4

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 2/11

2 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

NEW COLD WAR,

NEW SPACE RACESergey Oznobishchev,

Head of the Division for Military-Political Studies, Center for International Security,

at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).

Ever since the Cold War era, relations between Russia and the

United States in the space exploration sector have repeatedly

experienced ups and downs. Insurmountable differences

have kept the two sides from cooperating fully in the sector,

at times forcing them into a space race with both commercial

and military implications. With the current crisis in Ukraine,

which has led to economic sanctions with the ability to disrupt

Russian-U.S. cooperation in space, we are now seeing another

cyclical low in bilateral relations related to space exploration.

What follows is a review of seven key areas where the U.S. and

Russia cooperate in space; and an estimate of the costs (both

financial and logistical) involved in abandoning or postponing

current space exploration initiatives; and a brief summary of

which areas of space cooperation may be strong enough to

overcome mistrust over Ukraine. For now, the cornerstone of any

future cooperation will be the International Space Station. The

lesson is clear for both Russian and U.S. policymakers: Failure

to preserve and extend current areas of cooperation in space

exploration would have a significantly negative impact for both

sides. In a worst-case scenario, it could lead to a renewal of

the Cold War space race, filled with duplicative space projects

from both nations, all of which require enormous outlays that

could have been reduced through wider cooperation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

N A  S A 

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 3/11

3 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

OVERVIEW

It is already clear that one outcome of the crisis in

Ukraine, which has placed unprecedented strain on

Russian-U.S. relations, will be a noticeable reduction in

 joint space programs involving the two countries. Giv-

en recent events, it’s important to assess the scale and

scope of achievements in space cooperation between

the U.S. and Russia and then to estimate the potential

economic loss that will befall both sides as a result ofpresent and future sanctions.

Just as in the past, it now appears that bold, break-

through space exploration proposals and plans will

again fall victim to geopolitical reality. Ever since the

Cold War, the ability to cooperate in space exploration

has experienced setbacks in the form of the periodic

cooling of relations, the legacy of Cold War views and

approaches spilling over into mutual distrust, and the

prevailing attitude that space technology should be

kept under wraps in the interests of national security.

There have been some notable exceptions, of course.

The need for Russian-U.S. cooperation in the space sec-

tor was felt even at the height of the Cold War. In 1975,

for example, Moscow and Washington joined forces in

the first docking of U.S. and Russian spacecraft. In the

wake of perestroika and the end of the Cold War in the

1990s, it seemed that the two countries, acting togeth-

er, were finally able to solve all geopolitical issues. In

space, it appeared, there would no longer be any limits

on innovative space exploration projects.

What many may not realize is that Russia and the U.S.

actively collaborate in a number of high-profile areas,

backed by a 1992 agreement on cooperation in space

exploration, which was extended until 2020. (And, at

times, this cooperation involves the collaboration with

Ukrainian public and private entities, as in the case of

Sea Launch Company.) The cooperation can provi-

sionally be divided into two major parts: participation

in joint scientific and technical projects in the field of

space exploration, including cooperation on the Inter-

national Space Station (ISS), and the mutual provision

of technical services in space activity (the launch ofspacecraft using Russian rockets, deliveries of Russian

liquid rocket propulsion systems for U.S. launch vehi-

cles, etc.).

THE ISS IS THE CENTERPIECE OF

RUSSIAN-U.S. COOPERATION IN SPACE

Cooperation on the ISS program goes back more than

20 years. In the context of Russian-U.S. interaction, the

idea of combining the two countries’ orbital stations

was born under the Mir-Shuttle program.

This program, developed by the Russian Federal

Space Agency (Roscosmos) and the U.S. National Aer-

onautics and Space Administration (NASA), assumed

a wide range of joint activities, including flights by

America’s reusable space shuttle to Russia’s Mir space

station and collaboration between Russian cosmonauts

and U.S. astronauts

1993 saw the conclusion of a more long-term multi-

lateral agreement on the construction and operation of

the ISS, signed by Russia, the U.S., the EU, Canada, and

Japan. The total cost of the ISS program was estimated

NASA

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 4/11

4 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

at around $100 billion, a fact that served as an impor-

tant motivation for broad international cooperation.

Simultaneously, the project was divided up among the

participants: For example, of the ten people on board

the station, Russia would have the right to have three.

At all stages of the evolution of the project, the U.S.

played the most active part. Moreover, technical con-trol of the ISS is performed in conditions of very close

cooperation between Moscow and Washington. This in-

cludes cooperation between the Mission Control Cent-

er in Korolev outside Moscow and the Johnson Space

Center in Houston.

Today, the ISS is a multi-purpose space research com-

plex, serviced by 15 countries. Of the 14 ISS modules,

exactly half are American, including the Destiny re-

search lab.

When the Space Shuttle program was terminated in

the summer of 2011, U.S. cargo and astronauts were

shipped to the ISS on board Russia’s Soyuz capsule,which also served as proof that cooperation could

bring tangible benefits.

An important incentive for creating projects such

as the ISS is the unique environment on board, which

affords opportunities for some truly innovative ex-

periments. Both the U.S. and Russia are carrying out a

broad program of research on board the ISS. Many of

the studies are a continuation of work conducted under

the joint Mir-Shuttle program.

At the beginning of April 2014, news broke of NASA’s

intention to wind up all contacts with Russia, save for

its work with Roscosmos on the ISS. At the same time,the U.S. plans to develop its own system for delivering

cargo and astronauts into space, so as to do without

Russia’s services from 2017 onwards. Such decision is

clearly the result of the sanctions announced by Wash-

ington in respect of the crisis in relations with Russia

and the worsening situation in and around Ukraine.

However, the U.S. has no intention of pulling out of

the ISS project, whose uniqueness and importance forthe country is obvious to all. Moreover, the ISS program

has such a strong international character that to extract

any component “on the fly” would be extremely diffi-

cult and counterproductive for all, jointly and severally.

6 OTHER WAYS THE U.S. AND RUSSIA

COOPERATE IN SPACE

The need for close international cooperation, including

 joint scientific and technical projects on deep space

exploration, is objectively dictated by the prodigious

costs required to implement large-scale programsacross the board. Scientific cooperation between the

U.S. (NASA) and Russia (Roscosmos) is clearly not lim-

ited to the ISS. Here are six other ways that the U.S. and

Russia cooperate in space exploration.

#1: Russian instruments on U.S. spacecraft, rovers

and orbiters

U.S. spacecraft often have unique Russian-made instru-

ments on board. For instance, the Mars Odyssey con-

tains a Russian HEND (High-Energy Neutron Detector),

created by the Space Research Institute (SRI) of the

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS).On board NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter,

Living and working on the International Space Station (ISS): 15 years later

Crews have eaten about

25,000 mealsbetween 2000 and 2013

7

Tons7 tons

A crew of three  requires nearly

6 monthsSpacewalking astronauts have spent

more than 1,000 hoursworking outside the station since

first human presence on the ISS

More than 1,500scientific investigations performed

on the ISS

The ISS is larger than a

6-Bedroom houseThe ISS internal volume of a

Boeing 747

The ISS weighs almost a

million pounds(equivalent to more than 320 automobiles)

The first International Space Station component, the Russian Zarya module, was launched in November 1998. In the 15 years since,NASA and its global partners have built a world class orbiting laboratory, establishing a continuous human presence in space since2000 and paving the way for future exploration beyond.

of supplies

for about

The ISS length and width is about

football fieldthe size of an

Source: NASA

American

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 5/11

5 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

launched from Cape Canaveral in 2009, is a Russian

LEND (Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector), built by

the same institute.

In addition, aboard the U.S. Mars Curiosity Rover is a

DAN (Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons), once again built

by Russia’s SRI. This equipment has already delivered a

large amount of new data in the study of interplanetary

space.

 

#2: Joint exploration missions to Mars and Venus

Mention can be made of some other, more ambitious

attempts to cooperate. One of them is ExoMars — cur-rently a joint program between the European Space

Agency (ESA) and Roscosmos with the goal of explor-

ing Mars.

At one stage, the project also involved NASA, which

along with various technical solutions, was due to dis-

patch its Max-C mini-rover to the Red Planet. However,

the U.S. withdrew in 2001, and subsequent budgetary

difficulties completely excluded NASA from the project.

The Venera-D project originated from the desire to

repeat and multiply the successes of the Soviet Union’s

domestic programs in the 1970s to explore other plan-

ets. It was initially assumed that the project to explore

Venus, run by the SRI, together with a number of other

renowned Russian institutions and the support of the

Lavochkin Research and Production Association, would

be implemented over the next decade on the basis ofbroad international cooperation.

From a technical viewpoint, the very concept of

Venera-D (like America’s Magellan probe) symbolized

the continuity of technological ideas. From the out-

set, it was conceived that French partners would play

a significant part. NASA’s potential involvement also

cropped up periodically. In October 2009, the SRI held

a special international conference to bring on board re-

searchers from European countries and the U.S.

The media named the exact launch date of the craft

as December 6, 2016, and May 16, 2017, was slated as

the day when Venera-D would go into orbit around Ve-nus. However, the latest draft of the Solar System Ex-

ploration Program to 2025 prepared by the RAS, which

could become part of the Cosmonautics Development

Strategy, indicated that the launch of Venera-D could

take place no earlier than 2024 due to financial compli-

cations and the large amount of scientific and technical

work that remains to be done.

In connection with the statement by NASA on curtail-

ing cooperation with Russia, former SRI Director Roald

Sagdeev, a world-renowned scientist who is now a pro-

fessor at the University of Maryland, observed that such

a move would be a great loss for the scientific world.

 

#3: Launches of U.S. spacecraft and satellites using

Russian rockets

Since the first launch in 1996, launches of U.S. space-

craft using Russian carrier rockets have been a spec-

tacular example of mutually beneficial cooperation.

During this period, 86 U.S. civil and military probes

have been put into space. This collaboration takes

place within a direct Russia-U.S. format, together with

Ukraine and other countries.

Launches of U.S. spacecraft using Russian

carrier rockets have been a spectacular example

of mutually beneficial cooperation

Russian space exploration research program(2012-2025)

RESONANCE (4 satellites): Research (fromnear-Earth orbit) of the influence of the sun’s activityon Earth’s atmosphere and climate.

2014LUNA-RESOURCE : Exploratory research onthe surface of moon near its south pole.

INTERHELIOZOND: Research of internalheliosphere of the sun from short distances.

LUNA-GLOBE: Exploratory research on the surface ofthe moon near its north pole, orbital moon exploration.2015

EXOMARS (2016, 2018):Mars research in conjunction with European Space

Agency. The program includes several spacecraftmodules to be sent to Mars on two launches

including satellite and rover.

2016PHOBOS-GRUNT-2 (BOOMERANG):Phobos surface exploration, soil samplesdelivery to Earth.

2018 APOFIS:Specification of Apofis asteroid orbit

for the period from 2020 to 2036.

2020

LUNOKHOD-3 AND LUNOKHOD-4:Lunar substance samples collection with rovers.

MARS-GRUNT:Phobos surface exploration, soil

samples delivery to Earth.

LAPLACE: Exploration of one of Jupiter’s Galileanmoons in conjunction with European Space Agency.

MOON POLYGONE (2022+): Expansion of the polygonstation based on two rovers and landing station for afuture manned mission to the moon (after 2026).

2022

LUNA-GRUNT: Deliveryof lunar substancescollected by rovers toEarth.

VENERA-D:Orbital and exploratory

research of theatmosphere and surface

of Venus.

20242023

N A T A L I  A  MI  K H A Y L E N K  O

 S  O U R  C E :  R  O S  C  O S M O S 

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 6/11

6 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

poration, as well as the DirecTV-10 satellite, weighing a

record 5,893 kg.

November 2012 saw the launch of the U.S. satellite

EchoStar 16, manufactured by Space Systems/Loral,

which is intended to provide direct broadcasting ser-

vices across the U.S.

In October 2013, the U.S. commercial satellite Sirius-

FM6, owned by North American satellite operator Sirius

XM Radio, was put into orbit.

The sudden cessation of joint work due to the sanc-

tions will be a painful blow to Moscow, but will causeserious damage to the American side, too. The U.S. will

have to make a concerted effort if it is to optimally and

reliably deliver its own spacecraft into orbit at varying

altitudes.

 

#4: U.S. instruments for Russian satellites

As a result of the new sanctions, a similar situation aris-

es in another area of space cooperation: U.S. deliveries

of electronic components for Russian satellites.

A ban on the purchase of electronic components

was initially imposed in June 2013 in connection with

the scandal involving former NSA employee EdwardSnowden. However, Russia soon solved the problem

through purchases from other countries. Its backup

supplier is China, where the quality of electronic com-

ponents has increased significantly in recent years.

For the time being, the ban only affects the Russian

satellite Geo-IK-2, which was designated a military

instrument. However, that is a rather tentative defini-

tion, since it is designed for high-precision geodetic

measurements. Threats to ban deliveries of electronic

components for Russian GLONASS satellites have yet

to materialize.

It should be noted that at issue is a large-scale mar-

ket, worth at least $2 billion. Hence, the loss of such

market potential will hit both sides hard.

 

#5: Public-private collaboration featuring Russian

and U.S. partners

A new phenomenon in space exploration is the growing

area of public-private (or just private) business coop-

eration.

For example, new commercial payloads are now put

into space via Sea Launch, a non-governmental service

Pride of place among the Russian carrier rockets

used by the U.S. belongs to the Proton, with its unique

competitive advantages over other countries’ carriers

in terms of launch cost, payload size, cost of putting a

kilogram payload into orbit, and number of launches

per year.

In 1995, Russia’s Energia Rocket and Space Corpora-

tion and U.S. Lockheed Martin established a joint ven-

ture to market spacecraft launch services using the

Proton rocket. The company, International Launch Ser-

vices, is based in Reston, Virginia.

The Proton has featured prominently in the launch of

ISS modules. Since 1996, more than 55 U.S. craft have

been put into space. They include the Intelsat family

of communications satellites developed by Boeing Cor-

Russia’s backup supplier is China, where the

quality of electronic components has increased

significantly in recent years

Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission:This mission will investigate how the magnetic fields ofthe Sun and Earth connect and disconnect

2014

2015

New Horizons:Launched in 2006, a spacecraft is

traveling to Pluto to fly over the planetand its moons in July 2015

Juno: A spacecraft will go to Jupiter to study itsstructure and uncover its history

InSight: This discovery mission will place alander on Mars to look deep into the planet’sinterior2016

TESS:Using telescopes, TESS will search for transiting

exoplanets to identify terrestrial planets inhabitable zones of nearby stars

2017

Solar Probe Plus: This mission will explore what isarguably the last region of the solar system to bevisited by a spacecraft: the sun’s outer atmosphere

James Webb Telescope: The successor toHubble will find the first galaxies formed in theearly universe

OSIRIS-Rex: The spacecraft will approach a 1,500 foot primitiveasteroid named “1999 RQ36” and use a robotic arm to bringsamples to Earth in 2023

2018

Mars Rover:NASA’s next rover will look for signs of past life inMars and collect samples for possible return toEarth

2025

Manned Mission to an Asteroid:Using data from OSIRIS-Rex, NASA hopes toenable astronaut missions to an asteroid by 2025

NASA’s planned missions through 2030

2020

Manned Mission to Mars:Tens years after NASA lands its 2020 rover, the

agency hopes to send humans to Mars

2030  S  O U R  C E :  N A  S A 

N A T A L I  A  MI  K H A Y L E N K  O

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 7/11

7 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

that uses marine platforms. The advantage of a “marine

cosmodrome” is that carrier rockets can be launched

from the equator, where the Earth’s rotational speed

can be utilized most effectively.

On the back of these launches, the international con-

sortium Sea Launch Company (SLC) was created in

1995. It included Boeing Commercial Space Company(a subsidiary of Boeing Aerospace Corporation), En-

ergia Corporation, Ukraine’s Yuzhnoe Design Bureau,

Yuzhmashzavod Production Association, as well as the

Norwegian shipbuilder Aker Solutions. The initial pro-

 ject cost was estimated at $3.5 bi llion.

In 2010, due to commercial inefficiency, Boeing was

forced to cede the primary role to Energia Overseas

Limited (EOL), a subsidiary of Russia’s Energia Corpo-

ration, which acquired a 95 percent stake in the Sea

Launch consortium, while Boeing and Aker Solutions

received 3 percent and 2 percent stakes, respectively.

From 1999 to 2013, 31 successful launches were car-ried out by Sea Launch, 18 of them based around the

interests of the U.S.

The Zenit-3SL carrier rocket, developed by Yuzhnoe

Design Bureau and manufactured at the Yuzhmashza-

vod factory (located in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine), was

used for the launches. Given the current political crisis

over Ukraine, the location and “national identity” of the

carrier rocket fired from Sea Launch is no longer clear

and has cast doubt over the project.

Moreover, the platform and command ship are per-

manently based at Long Beach, CA, and every launch

out to sea requires permission from the U.S. State De-partment. Refusal to authorize the company’s next

request could be another component of Washington’s

expanding sanctions.

Commercial ground launches are carried out by the

international company Kosmotras, founded in 1997 and

headquartered in Moscow with a branch in Kiev, and

with the broad involvement of Russian ministries and

organizations. The program, dubbed “Dnepr”, is de-

signed to launch spacecraft on the basis of dismantled

RS-20 (SS-18, Satan) intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The adapted missiles are being developed jointly by

Russian and Ukrainian enterprises in cooperation with

the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian and

Ukrainian space agencies.

Since the first launch in 1999, a further 19 have been

made with the RS-20, resulting in 89 satellites being

put into near-earth orbit. Space agencies and compa-

nies from many countries, including the U.S, order such

launch services. The launches take place at the Bai-

konur Cosmodrome and the strategic missile site near

the town of Yasny.

The project has already been hit by the impracticabil-

ity of Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the current cir-

cumstances. Moreover, in case of sanctions spreading

to this area too, the withdrawal of the U.S., which has

the world’s highest demand for spacecraft launches,

will further complicate the situation for the project par-

ticipants, and for the U.S. itself, which will have to seek

alternatives.

 

#6: Russian engines powering U.S. rockets

For space launches, both civilian and military, the U.S.often turns to the Atlas-V. This rocket was used to put

the Advanced Extreme High Frequency (AEHF) com-

munications satellites into orbit for the U.S. Air Force.

The Boeing X-37 experimental orbital plane has been

launched three times by this rocket. However, not all

experts in Russian-U.S. relations are aware that the en-

gine for this rocket is the Russian-made RD-180.

The RD-180 project, developed by Energomash at

Khimki outside Moscow, was declared the winner of a

tender for the design and delivery of engines for the

first stage of the upgraded Atlas family of carriers back

in early 1996. According to experts, the choice was due

to the fact that Russian liquid rocket engines are still

far superior to U.S. developments and have a proven

track record.

Under an agreement signed that same year, Energo-

mash (through the joint venture RD-Amros) pledged to

deliver 50 RD-180 engines under a firm contract and

another 51 under an option agreement. More than 60

engines have already been delivered to the U.S. at a

price of $11-15 million apiece.

To date, 43 Atlas-V missile launches have taken place,

NASA

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 8/11

8 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

the most recent on January 24, 2014. In connection with

the launch of space systems that could potentially pose

a threat to Russia, Moscow is considering terminating

the delivery of RD-180 rockets to the Americans after

2015, although, under the existing agreement, Russia isobliged to supply RD-180 engines until 2018.

If the political situation deteriorates, the U.S. could

unilaterally attempt to break the agreement. It has

some reserves that could be used in the meantime, but

thereafter it will have to set up its own licensed produc-

tion (the U.S. has no replacement engine of its own for

the Atlas), which could take up to three years.

In addition, since the mid-1990s, NK-33 propulsion

systems built for the Soviet N-1 lunar rocket have been

supplied to the U.S. Under a contract with Aerojet

Rocketdyne, several dozen of these engines have been

delivered, where they are used in the Antares medium-class booster.

 

WHY COOPERATION IN SPACE

MATTERS NOW MORE THAN EVER

Analysis of the main areas of cooperation between

Russia and the U.S. reveals a clear division of la-

bor between the two countries that has taken shape

over more than two decades of joint space projects.

It stems from the historical development of the pro-

grams themselves and the conditions in which this

development took place. Across a range of areas, it

is simpler and more economical for one party to bor-

row the other’s technology or join an existing project,

rather than create or maintain its own (duplicate) line

of production.

For example, deep space exploration is increasingly

becoming the domain of U.S. programs, while Russia

and other countries find it much easier to partner with

these programs with their own objectives and equip-

ment. At the same time, the whole U.S. Atlas missile

system has relied entirely on the Russian RD-180 for

nearly 20 years, and Russia’s powerful Proton rocket is

an important component of U.S. satellite launches.

Meanwhile, the space station is such a costly projectin all aspects that the only way forward is cooperation

through a conglomerate of countries, in which the U.S.

and Russia act as the leading space powers. That is how

cooperation in this direction has been developing in re-

cent years.

Even a cursory glance at the present list of joint pro-

 jects will suffice to understand a simple truth: the U.S.

and Russia have something to lose in the field of space

cooperation. In connection with the threat of wider

sanctions, both sides will have to think seriously about

“nationalizing” their space programs to shield them

from the other.

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS COULD LEAD

TO A NEW SPACE RACE

The final days of April 2014 saw the announcement of

another ban — on the supply to Russia of U.S. space-

craft and devices that use parts made in the U.S. This

decision will score a direct hit on a number of segments

of both the Russian and U.S. markets. Primarily, it will

affect International Launch Services and its cofound-

ers, Energia Corporation and Lockheed Martin. The an-

nual losses could run to a few hundred million dollars.Serious, and likely irreparable, damage will also be

done to the Sea Launch consortium. As for the ground-

launch project Kosmotras, it is already becoming highly

politicized due to the broken ties with Ukraine.

And it doesn’t stop there, since the scale of the sanc-

tions has yet to be fully delineated, and the direct loss-

es for both sides (to say nothing of the indirect ones)

cannot be properly estimated.

What is clear, though, is that there will be significant

bilateral damage in many areas. Time will be lost, and

Russia and the U.S. will face the absurdity in today’s

global economy of having to invest effort, money, and

other resources in duplicating each other’s achieve-

ments. Policymakers from both sides should take a step

back and understand how far-reaching sanctions could

reverberate for a long time in both the U.S. and Russia,

perhaps even laying the groundwork for a new space

race.

33

30

32

19

- Russian launches

Russia

U.S.       1       9       9       5

       2       0       1       3

- Russian launches for U.S. space program

- U.S. launches

America’s growing role in the Russianspace program

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Russia

U.S.N A T A L I  A  MI  K H A Y L E N K  O

SOURCE: ROSCOSMOS / NASA

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 9/11

9 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

1. Philip Baker. The Story of Manned Space Stations. Chich-

ester: Praxis Publishers Ltd., 2007.

2. Matthew Brzezinski. Red Moon Rising: Sputnik and the

Hidden Rivalries that Ignited the Space Age. New York:

Times Books, 2007.

3. Deborah Cadbury. Space Race: The Epic Battle Between

America and the Soviet Union for Dominion of Space. New

York: Harper Collins Publishers, 2007.

4. Susan Eisenhower. Partners in Space (U.S.-Russian Co-

operation After the Cold War). Washingon, D.C.: The Eisen-

hower Institute, 2004.

5. Ben Evans. Partnership in Space: The Mid to Late Nine-

ties. New York: Springer Science and Business Media, 2014.

6. Von Hardesty and Gene Eisman (Forward by Sergei

Khrushchev). Epic Rivalry: The Inside Story of the Soviet

and American Space Race. Washington, D.C.: National Geo-

graphic, 2007.

7. Yuri Karash. Soviet/Russian-American Space Coopera-

tion. Washington, D.C.: The American University, 1997.

8. James Oberg. Star-Crossed Orbits. Inside the U.S.-Rus-sian Space Alliance. New York: McGrow Hill, 2001.

9. David Scott and Alexei Leonov (Forward by Neil Arm-

strong). Two Sides of the Moon: Our Story of the Cold War

Space. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2004.

10. Roald Sagdeev and Susan Eisenhower. United States-

Soviet Space Cooperation during the Cold War. Washing-

ton, D.C.: The Eisenhower Institute, 2008.

@NASAOfficial Twitter account of NASA.

@FederalspaceOfficial Roscosmos account tweeting about Russian space

flight, plus daily updates on Russian experiments on the ISS

and news about Soyuz and Progress ISS supply flights.

@ISS_ResearchOfficial NASA account tweeting about research experi-

ments on the ISS.

@SpaceXOfficial account for SpaceX (the first commercial ISS sup-

plier), which uses its Dragon capsules to enable material tobe sent back to Earth.

@ArianespaceOfficial account for Arianespace, a commercial company

that launches ESA ATV ISS supply ships from French Guiana.

@OrbitalSciencesOfficial account for Orbital Sciences Corporation, which be-

gan launching commercial supply flights to ISS in 2012 using

its Cygnus spacecraft.

@SPACEdotcomNews coverage and conversation about space science and

space exploration.

@AstroRobonautOfficial NASA account of the only permanent ISS crew

member, the robot astronaut.

@NASA_AstronautsOfficial Twitter account of NASA’s astronauts, with updates

on astronaut activities from NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

@TwisstSends you a tweet when the ISS will be visible at your geo-

graphic location on Earth.

RECOMMENDED BOOKS ON SPACE TOP 10 TWITTER ACCOUNTS FOR

#SPACE

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 10/11

10 WWW.RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORGRUSSIA DIRECT MONTHLY MEMO

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

Sergey Oznobishchev is the Head of the Division for Military-Political Studies, Cent-

er for International Security, at the Institute for World Economy and International

Relations (IMEMO).

Oznobishchev is an expert on international and national security and the reduction

and limitation of armaments. He is the author of more than 150 articles published

in both the Russian and English languages.

In 1973, he graduated from the Department of International Journalism at the

Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University). In 1976, he

graduated from the Institute of US and Canadian Studies (ISCRAN). He holds a

Ph.D. in History.

Currently, Oznobishchev is a professor at the Moscow State Institute of Interna-tional Relations, a member of the Expert Council of the International Affairs Com-

mittee of the Federation Council, a member of the Expert Council of the Collective

Security Treaty Organization, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense

Policy, a member of the K.E. Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, and

the Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessments.

SERGEY

OZNOBISHCHEV

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

7/21/2019 RD_2014_05

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/rd201405 11/11

SPACE RACE | #10 | MAY 2014

QUARTERLY REPORTS (DIGITAL OR PRINT FORMATS)

 Megatons to Megawatts Program

 Sochi: Going For the Olympic Gold

 Afghan Endgame: What Comes Next

 Russian Soft Power 2.0

MONTHLY MEMOS

 A Five-Step Program For Fixing the Ukraine Crisis

 Eurasia: Russia’s Link to Europe and Asia

 Education in Russia: Mapping the Future, Understanding

the Past

 Russia-U.S. Relations: From Stasis to Progress?

 The Arctic: A New Geopolitical Pivot?

 Redrawing Eastern Europe

 Central Asia as Geopolitical Pivot: Three Scenarios

For Integration

 The Middle East. The New Great Game

 From Cold War to Cyberwar?

E x p e r t i s e o n R u s s i a 2 4 / 7

F o r s u g g e s t i o n s o n f u t u r e t o p i c s p l e a s e w r i t e t o E d i t o r i n C h i e f e z a b r o v s k a y a @ r u s s i a d i r e c t o r g

GET ACCESS

 TO ALLRUSSIA DIRECT

REPORTS WITH

ONE CLICK 

DOWNLOAD TODAY RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORG/ARCHIVE

(FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME)