r&d efforts during crisis and beyond: some lessons from nemesis simulations
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R&D efforts during crisis and beyond: Some lessons from NEMESIS simulations. Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Pierre Haddad, Boris le Hir, Pierre le Mouël et Paul Zagamé WIOD CONFERENCE VIENNA- May 26-28, 2010. Outline. The NEMESIS model 2-R&D policies are useful during crisis - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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R&D efforts during crisis and beyond: Some lessons from
NEMESIS simulationsArnaud Fougeyrollas, Pierre Haddad, Boris le Hir, Pierre le Mouël et Paul
Zagamé
WIOD CONFERENCE VIENNA- May 26-28, 2010
2
Outline
1. The NEMESIS model
2- R&D policies are useful during crisis3- A new scenario for 3% Barcelona objective
4- Increasing R&D effort: doubling FP85- Redeployment of European budget towards R&D
6- Conclusions
3
1-The NEMESIS Model:
1.1-General dynamicPhysico Economic interdependancies
NEMESISCore economic
model
Energy/EnvironmentModule
Regional Module(Gives results for NUTS 2
regions)
Agriculture module(Detailed agriculture production
function)
Land-Use module-Transport
- Urban- Agriculture
4
1- The NEMESIS Model
1.1-General dynamic Intersectoral Economic Interdependancies: up to
Knowledge (30 sectors)
Price and substitution effects on final demand Exchange of goods and services for production (input-output)
Intermediary CapitalKnowledge spillovers
Strong heterogeneity of sectors from a dynamic point of view (employment, knowledge, Environment, Energy…)
Economic track: the result of strong interdependancies of most progressive sectors (I.C.I, biotechnologies, and less ones (some services, agriculture)
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1-The NEMESIS Model
1.1-General dynamicMacro-sectoral (hybrid)
Bottom-up sector approach: GDP, revenues are the sum of sectors
Top down: macro Economic Saving Consumption arbitrage
Hybrid result: dynamic loop is generally sectoral: productions, prices, investment, employment, revenues but with a macroeconomic feedback by consumption
Complex result for the dynamic
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1- The NEMESIS Model1.1-General DynamicInternational interdependancies
27 distinct models for EuropeSimplified models for Areas of rest of the
WorldInternational exchanges of goods and servicesInternational knowledge spillovers
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.2- Econometric based mechanismsEconometrics
Mainly on chronological data or panel data (sectors, countries)
Based on implicit maximisation behaviour, (utility profit) but not on explicit maximization conditions and with a choice of relationship based on econometric criteria
Then different from applied general equilibrium approach that is based on:Maximization CalibrationEqilibrium on every market
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.2-Econometric based mechanismsA compromise theory /data
Applied modelling is always a « compromise » between :TheoryData and facts
The compromise for econometric modelling is nearer data and facts than general equilibrium one
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.2- Econometric based mechanismsInconvenients
Can be rejected by strict orthodoxyNo explicit utility functions and then impossibility
to calculate surplisses variations associated to policies
Dependant on statistics availability that is not case for G.E.M. aprroach that is calibrated
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1- The NEMESIS Model1.2-Econometric based
mechanismsAdvantages
Modelling is more based on data recent tendencies and in this sense « more realistic »
Allow forecasts and easier link with the present conjoncture conditions for the start of Baseline
Allow easier adaptation to specific mechanisms (pricing for zero marginal cost activities)
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.2-Econometric based mechanismsAdvantages (following)
Structure more « flexible » allowing easy removal of mechanismsMore adaptable to heterodox theoriesSuited for prospective of « break through
scenario ».
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.3-The central rôle of « knowledge economics »
Three main variables
R&D expenditures and R&D stocksSpillovers and technical Knowledge
(T.K.)Human capital
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.4. Externalities and knowledge spillovers
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KNOW
Foreign Public R&D StockR&D Stocks of Foreign SectorsPublic R&D Stock
R&D Stock of Other Sectors
R&D Stock of the Sector
Technology Flow MatricesTechnology Flows
Matrices
R&D StockR&D Expenditures Decay
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1- The NEMESIS Model
= elasticity for KNOW performance
– increasing with R&D intensity in the sector i and the country j
with14
ij
ij
ijij Y
Rf 0'
1.5-Sectoral and national results for knowledge performance
KNOWKNOW
YY
ij
.
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.5-Sectoral and national results for R&D performance
But sectoral knowledge spillovers very heterogeneous
- Emitting sources- Reception
Then for sectors and countries– Identity for private rate of return– Heterogeneity of social rate of return
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1- The NEMESIS Model
1.6-The use of NEMESISEnergyEnvironment, GHG, other pollutionsAgriculture and land useR&D and knowledge Economics:
3% barcelona FP (7-8) New National Action Plan for R&D
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.1- R&D effort is lowering during crisis (procyclical):Countercyclical view:
Need for efficiency Opportunity cost Bental and Piled (1960) François Lloyd Ellis (2003)
But majority for pro-cyclical view: Financial contraints Demand driven François Lloyd Ellis (2009)
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.2- The durability of crisis Short term effects of crisis: DG ECFIN (Fall
prospect)
GDP Employment GDP Employment GDP Employment
Trend (growth rate) 2.7% 1.4% 1.6% -0.4% 1.8% -0.3% Crisis (growth rate) 0.8% 1.2% -4.1% -2.3% 0.7% -1.2% Cumulartive GAP (%) 1.9% 0.2% 7.6% 2.1% 8.7% 3.0%
2008 2009 2010
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.2- The durability of crisis Evolution of GDP in pre- and post-crisis forecast
scenarios Evolution of GDP (Billion € 2000)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast
(1)
(2)
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
In the new forecast, NEMESIS is constrained in 2008, 2009 and 2010 to reproduce DG ECFIN GDP prospects.
After 2010, NEMESIS shows that the effects of crisis are durable: The GDP gap increases up to 2025 and after
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.2- The durability of crisis Average growth rates of production in pre-
and post-crisis forecast scenarios
Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-CrisisAgriculture 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -1.6% -0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6%Energy 1.5% 0.3% -1.3% -6.9% 0.6% -2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 1.2% 1.0%Intermediate goods 4.3% 2.7% 2.1% -7.9% 1.7% -2.2% 2.4% 3.9% 2.1% 2.0%Equipment goods 4.7% 2.5% 2.2% -11.0% 1.9% -0.8% 2.6% 4.0% 2.3% 2.3%Final consumption goods 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% -3.8% 1.1% -1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2%Construction 4.8% 0.5% 0.8% -17.6% 1.9% 1.1% 2.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.3%Distribution 2.3% 1.2% 1.5% -3.9% 1.5% -0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.7%Transports 3.2% 2.1% 1.9% -5.2% 1.8% -0.3% 2.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2.3%Communications 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% -2.2% 1.8% -0.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.0%Bank, finance, insurance 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% -2.2% 1.8% -0.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.0%Other market services 2.4% 1.3% 1.5% -3.5% 1.4% -0.7% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.7%Non market services 1.8% 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%Total 2.9% 1.7% 1.5% -5.4% 1.5% -0.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8%
2016-20252008 2009 2010 2011-2015
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.2- The durability of crisis Evolution of employment in pre- and post-crisis
forecast scenarios Evolution of employment (Millions)
202
207
212
217
222
227
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast
(1)
(2)
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.2- The durability of crisis
Evolution of Employment is different than for GDP: The employment gap of 2010 is half filled in 2015
The lowering of wages during crisis allows a growth richer in employment during the economic recovery
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.3- The research for economic recoveryPost-Crisis scenario with countercyclical
R&D (3):Increase of R&D effort up to 3% GDP in 2020Additional R&D financed mainly by private sector
such as to reach 2% private financing in 2020
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.3- The research for economic recovery Evolution of GDP (Billion € 2000)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast Counter-cyclical scenario
(1)
(2)
(3)
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.3- The research for economic recovery43% of GDP gap is filled in 2025but GDP growth is faster and GDP gap
reduced compared to the post-crisis scenario without counter-cyclical R&D
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.3- The research for economic recovery Evolution of employment (Millions)
202
207
212
217
222
227
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast Counter-cyclical scenario
(1)
(2)
(3)
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2- R&D policies are useful during crisis
2.3- The research for economic recovery
The employment Gap is almost filled in 2015.The reduction of wages during crising
stimulates employment, the increase in R&D effort boosts growth: Economic recovery is rich in jobs creation
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3- A new scenario for Barcelona 3% objective
Former assessment in 2002 for EU15 Extension to new member States New agenda Crisis
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3- A new scenario for Barcelona 3% objective
RD effort in new Barcelona 3% scenario
0.016
0.018
0.02
0.022
0.024
0.026
0.028
0.03
0.032
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
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3- A new scenario for Barcelona 3% objective
GDP and its counterparts in the 2002 assessment for EU15
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GDP (1) Investment (2) Final Consumption (3)Employment (4) Exports (5) Imports (6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(6)
(5)
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3- A new scenario for Barcelona 3% objective
GDP and its counterparts in the new Barcelona scenario for EU27
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GDP (1) Investment (2) Final Consumption (3)Employment (4) Exports (5) Imports (6)
(5)
(3)
(1)
(4)
(2)
(6)
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3- A new scenario for Barcelona 3% objective
Crisis reduces R&D efforts in the model in 2009 The new assessment shows less deficits in the
first phase due to low inflationary pressure in reason of: High unemployment rate Low production capacity utilisation rate
In the long term the major driver for GDP growth are first exportations and second final consumption It was the reverse in the former assessment The lowering of wages during crisis stimulates external
competitiveness but hampers final consumption
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4- Increasing R&D effort : doubling the
FP8 (1/4)4.1- Characteristics of the FP:
Small share of R&D effort of the European countries: 0.054% of EU GDP in 2009 Up to potentially 0.076% in 2013
(according to the F.P. 7 financial scheme)
1.9% for total R&D effort
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4- Increasing R&D effort : doubling the FP8
(2/4)4.1- Characteristics of the FP But generates strong incentives (crowding-in effects):
Networks effects Best practices transfer High productivity
Then doubling FP in 2020 FP will be 0,15% of EU G.D.P. The total R&D effort raises by 0,18% of G.D.P. (1/6 of
Barcelona effort)
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4- Increasing R&D effort : doubling the FP8 (3/4)
4.2-Economic consequences
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GDP (1) Investment (2) Consumption (3)
Employment (4) Exports (5) Imports (6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
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5- Redeployment of European budget towards
R&D5.1- Redeploying part of CAP direct supports ( ≈ 16%) towards the FP in order to double it leads to an increase of G.D.P and employment:
1.2% additional GDP in 2025 1 million (0.48%) more jobs in 2025
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5- Redeployment of European budget towards R&D
5.2-But with important adjustment costs for agriculture:
Production -0,14Arable land -0,46Employment -2,3Revenu -2,45
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GDP
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6- Conclusion
R&D policies seem to be more adapted to today economic situation deeply impacted by the crisis:Pulling up the European economy while
inducing only limited deficits and inflationary pressures
A better way out of the crisis with a fast catching up of employment and a lower one of G.D.P., compared to their potential level before crisis
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6- Conclusion
The implementation of other structural policies like GHG reduction could also give more breathing space for increasing the R&D effort incentive policies: ex. recycling of the auctionning revenus of the EUTS permits
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6- Conclusion
The results presented here are macro economic at EU level
The different results at a detailed level or countries and sectors highly differenciated regarding the R&D efforts and knowledge spillovers are interesting
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6- Conclusion
The future developments of modelling are on:
The use of new databases (EU-KLEMS and WIOD for productivities, input output tables in order to make new estimations
Deepening of externalities and Knowledge spillovers General purpose technologies (ICT,…) International spillovers
New simulations on R&D policies
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6- Conclusion• The main message for WIOD is :
– The feasibility of simulations of a detailed interdependent econometric system
– The need for new databases and the first results of WIOD will be welcome
