raymond james tech conference december 5, · pdf filediversified geographic portfolio with...
TRANSCRIPT
Raymond James Tech Conference
December 5, 2017
Forward-looking statements
The following information contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the Company’s plans, strategies and prospects as well as future volume and earnings trends and expectations. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied. The reports filed by the Company pursuant to United States securities laws contain discussions of these risks and uncertainties, which include, but are not limited to, competition from other weight management industry participants or the development of more effective or more favorably perceived weight management methods; the Company’s ability to continue to develop new, innovative services and products and enhance its existing services and products or the failure of its services and products to continue to appeal to the market, or the Company’s ability to successfully expand into new channels of distribution or respond to consumer trends; the ability to successfully implement new strategic initiatives; the effectiveness of the Company’s advertising and marketing programs, including the strength of its social media presence; the impact on the Weight Watchers brand of actions taken by the Company’s franchisees, licensees, suppliers and other partners; the impact of the Company’s debt service obligations and restrictive debt covenants; uncertainties regarding the satisfactory operation of the Company’s information technology or systems; the impact of security breaches or privacy concerns; the recognition of asset impairment charges; the loss of key personnel, strategic partners or consultants or failure to effectively manage and motivate the Company’s workforce; the Company’s chief executive officer transition; the inability to renew certain of the Company’s licenses, or the inability to do so on terms that are favorable to the Company; the expiration or early termination by the Company of leases; risks and uncertainties associated with the Company’s international operations, including regulatory, economic, political and social risks and foreign currency risks; uncertainties related to a downturn in general economic conditions or consumer confidence; the Company’s ability to successfully make acquisitions or enter into joint ventures, including its ability to successfully integrate, operate or realize the anticipated benefits of such businesses; the seasonal nature of the Company’s business; the impact of events that discourage or impede people from gathering with others or accessing resources; the Company’s ability to enforce its intellectual property rights both domestically and internationally, as well as the impact of its involvement in any claims related to intellectual property rights; the outcomes of litigation or regulatory actions; the impact of existing and future laws and regulations; the Company’s failure to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting; the possibility that the interests of Artal Group S.A., who effectively controls the Company, will conflict with other holders of the Company’s common stock; and other risks and uncertainties, including those detailed from time to time in the Company’s periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company assumes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
2
Overview of Weight Watchers
3
Weight Watchers is the global leader in commercial weight management
Over 50 years of experience in modifying behavior through in-person meetings, online communities, and mobile platforms
One of the most clinically-studied weight management programs over the last 20 years, with numerous awards including the #1 Best-Weight-Loss Diet in 2017 (US News)
Successful launch of the Beyond the Scale strategy in Q4 2015 has resulted in 6 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and 8 consecutive quarters of recruitment growth
~81% of revenue comes from member subscriptions
End of period subscribers up 18.4% YoY in Q3 2017, driven by growth in all major geographic markets
Business highlights Competitive strengths
Global healthy living brand
Scientifically proven program with expertise in behavior change across both physical and digital platforms
Loyal and growing customer base
Strategic partnership with Oprah Winfrey
Highly profitable and capital efficient business model
Focus on cost management ($250mm annualized gross cost reduction since year end 2012)
Diversified geographic portfolio with ~32% of revenue outside of North America
Experienced management team, Oprah partnership and Beyond the Scale strategy support sustainable growth
Source: Company filings
Innovative product offering and high customer engagement
4
Weight management plan
Beyond the Scale strategy: foundation of Weight Watchers’ services and products
Holistic and personalized approach to health and wellness
SmartPoints: based on scientific research and customer insights
Meetings
Group support system is the cornerstone of meeting’s effectiveness
Members share experiences as inspiration to achieve their goals
Encourage learning through discussions and goal setting
Products / Other
Products include bars, snacks, cookbooks, food and restaurant guides, and Weight Watchers’ magazines
Growing sales by curating existing and new product offerings
Meetings and online platform create a large support base for subscribers – Weight Watchers has a loyal following of approximately 1.35mm Meeting subscribers and more than 2.0mm Online subscribers
Source: Company filings
Online
Digitally manage daily aspects of weight management plan
All members have access to online tools
4.5-star rated mobile suite offers exclusive access to weight-loss tools and other health-related content
360 degree experience to meet members where they are
5
Meetings Online
Content
Connect
24/7 Chat
Social Media
Connect: Our digital community
6
Connect social platform embedded in the Weight Watchers app
Exclusive community where members post progress, photos and motivational quotes
Dramatic and sustainable transformation of the business
Modernized technology platform
Consumer-facing functionality now largely operating on new platform:
Reliable
Platform for rapid innovation
Enhanced the member experience
Significantly enhanced online community
Brought human support to digital realm, driving high levels of member engagement
Disciplined expense management
Achieved $250mm cost structure reduction from 2012 levels, across all expense lines
Much improved global marketing execution
Groundbreaking partnership with Oprah Winfrey in October 2015
Long-term collaboration with Oprah Winfrey as a WW member, Board member, advisor and shareholder
Launched SmartPoints Food program in combination with Beyond the Scale strategy
Holistic approach to a healthier, more fulfilling life that encompasses the evolving needs, mindsets and science around weight management
Mindy Grossman joined as new President and CEO on July 5, 2017
7
Realizing benefits of our transformation
8
EBITDAS ($mm)
FCF1 ($mm)
Revenue ($mm)
Net debt3 / EBITDAS
$1,480
$1,164 $1,165 $1,262
2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
Source: Company filings Note: See Appendix for GAAP reconciliations
1 Free cash flow calculated as CFO – Capex (includes capitalized software expenditures) 2 Conversion calculated as free cash flow / CFO 3 Net debt is total debt less cash. Debt reflects par principal of loan; excludes deferred financing charges
$366
$256 $259 $328
2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
5.6x
7.8x 7.4x
5.3x
2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
$180
$19
$85
$171
2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
24.7% 22.0% 22.2% 26.0% EBITDAS margin
77.7% 33.9% 71.2% 81.5% FCF conversion2
Momentum accelerated into Q3
End of Period Subscribers +18% YoY to ~3.4 million
Revenues +14% YoY (at constant currency) with higher retention
Gross margin has increased 320 bps YoY (at constant currency)
Operating Income +34% YoY (at constant currency) with growth in all major markets
Raised full year EPS guidance for the 3rd consecutive quarter
Introduced a below 3.5x long-term leverage target on our earnings call
9
Profitable business model with low costs
10
Business model highlights
Recruitments
Subscription model with strong repeat behavior
Much improved integrated marketing across all channels, including digital, social, CRM, and TV has contributed to recruitment growth
Recruitment is also driven by word-of-mouth
Online product enhancements and 4.5-star rated app help drive growth in recruitments
Price
Many customers join with 3-month commitment, followed by auto renewal at full-rate
$19.95 / month1: Weight Watchers online subscription
$44.95 / month1: Access to face-to-face meetings in addition to digital tools
Retention Average length of stay has improved to over 9 months
Increased retention driven by increased member engagement through tools like Connect
High incremental margins
Very low cost to serve incremental subscribers
Online segment is highly scalable with centralized infrastructure
Marketing and G&A are each less than 16% of sales
Multiple levers of future growth: New audiences, global expansion, partnerships Source: Company filings 1 U.S. pricing
Disciplined expense management
Reduced gross annualized expenses by $250mm from 2012 levels
Marketing spend has become much more efficient
Transformation plan produced agile and cost-effective technology infrastructure
(12.7%) (16.7%)
(21.7%) (18.1%)
(13.5%)
(4.3%)
2.9% 3.8%
9.9% 9.2%
20.1%
25.8% 24.4%
Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
(12.4%) (13.3%)
(17.0%) (14.7%)
(11.5%)
(5.4%)
7.6% 6.6%
10.4% 10.4% 10.7% 12.5%
10.6%
Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Continued strength in both online and meeting subscribers…
11
Source: Company filings
Meeting subscribers (YoY % growth)
Online subscribers (YoY % growth)
…under a low cost structure
12
354
296
262
201 194
205
19.2%
17.1%
17.7%
17.3%
16.7%
15.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Guidance
Marketing expense % of revenue
Marketing expense ($mm) and % of revenue
229
248 234
185 190 205
12.5%
14.4%
15.8% 15.8% 16.3% 15.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Guidance
G&A expense
% of revenue
G&A expense ($mm) as a % of revenue
Weight Watchers has exhibited disciplined expense management
Marketing down ~$150mm vs. peak
Continued cost efficient G&A spend
Source: Company filings Note: See Appendix for SG&A reconciliation
22
45
47 40
52
36 34 39
32
22
79
62
1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
Non-recurring
Normalized capex
Normalized capex % of net sales
13
Strong cash flow generation and low capex
259
357
320
284
180
19
85
171 92.1% 88.8% 95.0%
87.7% 77.7%
33.9%
71.2% 81.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM
FCF
FCF conversion
Source: Company financials Note: Normalized capex adjusted for non-recurring expenditures related to retail store refresh (2012) and corporate headquarters relocation (2013) 1 Free cash flow calculated as CFO – Capex; 2 Conversion calculated as free cash flow / CFO, 3 Capex includes capitalized software expenditures. See Appendix for FCF reconciliation
Free cash flow generation1 ($mm) and free cash flow conversion2
Capital expenditures3 ($mm)
Highly cash generative business model
Low required capital expenditures
Debt refinancing
14
Prior structure
• $1.9B term loan • Due April 2020 • LIBOR +325 bps
• $50M revolver • LIBOR +250 bps • April 2018 maturity • No borrowing as of Q3 2017
New structure
• $1.54B term loan • Due November 2024 • LIBOR +475 bps
• $300M bond
• 8.625% • November 2025 maturity
• $150M revolver
• LIBOR +275 bps • November 2022 maturity • $25M drawn down at closing
New structure extends debt maturities to 2024-2025, providing increased flexibility
2018 interest expense expected to increase to ~$140M; opportunities to prepay and reprice with business momentum and cash generation
Commitment to delevering – Introduced long-term leverage target below 3.5x net debt to EBITDAS
Exciting news for winter season
15
Launched new program in all major markets The program is an evolution of our highly successful and effective SmartPoints Food plan The livable plan gives members more freedom and flexibility New program has been under development for more than a year, and has tested better than any other plan in the company’s history Clinical trial results best we have ever seen for a WW
program Receiving high marks for livability Oprah is a strong advocate of the new program and will play a central role in the upcoming U.S. marketing campaign
Evolution of SmartPoints
16
• Vegetables • Fruits • Skinless chicken breast • Skinless turkey breast • Non-fat yogurt • Eggs • Beans, peas, lentils, tofu and corn • All fish, e.g., cod, mackerel, trout and salmon • All seafood, e.g. shrimp, lobster, mussels, oysters
Our strategic priorities
17
Brand Global
• Continue to evolve into a global healthy living brand
• Beyond the Scale Strategy focusing on nutrition, activity and positive mindset
• Leverage Connect
• Offer new ways to experience Weight Watchers
• Continue to leverage our authority on food science
• Use our expertise in behavioral science to guide people through weight loss and wellness journey
• Deliver personalized interactions and experiences throughout a member’s journey
• Use AI and data to personalize our approach
• Opportunity to expand into new international markets
• A technology experience company driven by human engagement
• A 360 program with seamless online and offline experiences
Behavior science Community
Personalization
Brand
Human impact
Global
Appendix
Fiscal year YTD Q3
($mm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Meeting fees 934.9 851.6 744.6 587.8 605.3 505.0
Online subscription revenues 490.1 509.1 437.4 349.6 343.8 312.7
In-meeting product sales 253.2 212.0 169.1 127.3 125.5 176.7
Licensing, franchise royalties and other 161.1 151.4 128.9 99.8 90.3 --
Net revenue $1,839.4 $1,724.1 $1,479.9 $1,164.4 $1,164.9 $994.4
GAAP reconciliations
19
Net revenue
Gross profit
Fiscal year YTD Q3
($mm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross profit 1,093.8 1,001.1 802.6 574.1 585.5 530.2
Adjustments:
Restructuring charges -- -- 4.6 1.5 -- --
UK self-employment ruling accrual reversal (14.5) -- -- -- -- --
Adjusted gross profit $1,079.3 $1,001.1 $807.2 $575.6 $585.5 $530.2
Source: Company filings Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding
1 Includes licensing, franchise royalties and other
1
Fiscal year YTD Q3
($mm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SG&A 229.3 247.7 241.0 205.0 190.3 153.7
Adjustments:
Restructuring charges -- -- (7.2) (6.9) -- --
Winfrey transaction expenses -- -- -- (13.6) -- --
Adjusted SG&A $229.3 $247.7 $233.8 $184.5 $190.3 $153.7
Selling, general and administrative expenses
GAAP reconciliations (continued)
20
EBITDAS
Free cash flow
Fiscal year YTD Q3
($mm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net income 257.4 202.7 117.8 32.9 67.7 100.5
Interest 90.5 103.1 123.0 121.8 115.2 82.2
Taxes 159.5 129.6 65.9 22.8 16.6 36.5
EBIT $507.5 $435.5 $306.7 $177.6 $199.5 $219.2
Depreciation and amortization 36.6 47.9 49.2 53.2 52.6 38.3
Stock-based compensation 8.8 4.3 10.5 24.8 6.5 9.4
Adjustments:
UK self-employment ruling accrual reversal (14.5) -- -- -- -- --
EBITDAS $538.5 $487.6 $366.5 $255.5 $258.7 $266.9
Source: Company filings Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding
Fiscal year YTD Q3
($mm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash provided by operating activities $336.7 $323.5 $231.6 $54.8 $119.0 $184.8
Capital expenditures (48.8) (40.7) (9.1) (4.0) (5.6) (10.8)
Capitalized software expenditures (29.9) (21.3) (42.6) (32.3) (28.8) (20.2)
Adjustments:
Corporate headquarters relocation -- 22.0 -- -- -- --
Retail store refresh 32.0 -- -- -- -- --
UK self-employment ruling accrual reversal 30.0 -- -- -- -- --
Adjusted free cash flow $320.0 $283.6 $179.9 $18.6 $84.7 $153.8
Discretionary items
Dividends (52.0) (29.6) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) --
Cash paid for acquisitions (30.4) (83.8) (16.7) (3.1) (2.9) --
Adjusted free cash flow after discretionary cash items $237.6 $170.2 $163.2 $15.4 $81.8 $153.8