raymond james 35 annual institutional investors conference … · 2019. 2. 8. · the company...
TRANSCRIPT
1 TollBrothersIR.com
Raymond James
35th Annual Institutional Investors Conference
March 3, 2014
2
Table Of Contents
Slide #1: Logo
Slide #2: Table of Contents
Slide #3: Contact Information
Slide #4: Statement of Forward-Looking Information
Slide #5: Overview
Slide #6 Brand Name
Slide #7: Preliminary Fiscal Q4 & FY 2013 Financials
Slide #8: Key Metrics
Slide #9: Shapell Homes Acquisition
Slide #10: Shapell: Lots & Communities
Slide #11: Shapell: Overview of Financing
Slide #12: Shapell: Acquisition Advantages
Slide #13: Current U.S. Housing Market
Slide #14: Basic Demographics
Slide #15: Nationwide Footprint
Slide #16: Only National HB Focused on Luxury Market
Slide #17: Toll Home Sale Prices YTD FY 2013
Slide #18: Widest Variety of Homes
Slide #19: Evolving Product Diversification
Slide #20: Move-Up
Slide #21: Empty Nesters
Slide #22: Active Adult
Slide #23: Master Planned Communities
Slide #24: Second Homes
Slide #25: Urban Redevelopment
Slide #26: Suburban High Density
Slide #27: Urban Infill
Slide #28: City Living Pipeline – FY 2013
Slide #29: City Living Pipeline – FY 2014 & Beyond
Slide #30: Focus on land
Slide #31: Building a Solid Land Position
Slide #32: Number of Selling Communities
Slide #33: Homebuilder School Quality Index
Slide #34: ESE Consultants
Slide #35: High-Volume Technology
Slide #36: Toll Architecture
Slide #37: Toll Integrated Systems
Slide #38: TBI Mortgage
Slide #39: Diverse Income Streams
Slide #40: Overview of Gibraltar Capital
Slide #41: Toll Apartment and Campus Living
Slide #42: What’s New Since The Downturn?
Slide #43: Superior Capital Market Access
Slide #44: Accessing Capital for Growth
Slide #45: Net Debt to Capital
Slide #46: Capitalization
Slide #47: Room to Grow – Sector
Slide #48: Room to Grow – Toll
Slide #49: Long Term Fundamentals
Slide #50: Unemployment Rates
Slide #51: Baby Boomers Drive Luxury Market
Slide #52: $100,000 Income Households
Slide #53: Housing Starts vs. Household Growth
Slide #54: Why Toll
Slide #55: Home
3
Investor Relations Contact Information
Martin Connor, CFO
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 215-938-6934
Frederick Cooper, SVP Finance, International Development & IR
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 215-938-8312
Russell Rochestie, AVP Finance
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 215-938-5227
4
Statement Of Forward-looking Information
Information presented herein for the first quarter of fiscal year 2014 is subject to finalization of the Company’s regulatory filings, related financial and
accounting reporting procedures and external auditor procedures.
Certain information included in this release is forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including,
but not limited to, information related to: anticipated operating results; anticipated financial performance, resources and condition; selling
communities; home deliveries; average home prices; consumer demand and confidence; contract pricing; business and investment opportunities;
market and industry trends; the anticipated benefits to be realized from the consummation of the Shapell acquisition; and post-closing asset sales.
Such forward-looking information involves important risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect actual results and cause them to differ
materially from expectations expressed herein and in other Company reports, SEC filings, statements and presentations. These risks and
uncertainties include, among others: local, regional, national and international economic conditions; fluctuating consumer demand and confidence;
interest and unemployment rates; changes in sales conditions, including home prices, in the markets where we build homes; conditions in our newly
entered markets and newly acquired operations; the competitive environment in which we operate; the availability and cost of land for future growth;
conditions that could result in inventory write-downs or write-downs associated with investments in unconsolidated entities; the ability to recover our
deferred tax assets; the availability of capital; uncertainties in the capital and securities markets; liquidity in the credit markets; changes in tax laws
and their interpretation; effects of governmental legislation and regulation; the outcome of various legal proceedings; the availability of adequate
insurance at reasonable cost; the impact of construction defect, product liability and home warranty claims, including the adequacy of self-insurance
accruals, and the applicability and sufficiency of our insurance coverage; the ability of customers to obtain financing for the purchase of homes; the
ability of home buyers to sell their existing homes; the ability of the participants in various joint ventures to honor their commitments; the availability
and cost of labor and building and construction materials; the cost of raw materials; construction delays; domestic and international political events;
weather conditions; the anticipated benefits to be realized from the consummation of the Shapell acquisition; and post-closing asset sales. For a
more detailed discussion of these factors, see the information under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Any or all of the forward-looking statements included in this release are not guarantees of future performance and may turn out to be inaccurate.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
5
Overview
Founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986
Nation’s leading luxury home builder
2012 Builder of the Year by Professional Builder
Magazine
Builds in 19 states and approximately 50 markets
2013 Fortune 1000 Company
Serves urban and suburban, luxury move-up, empty-
nester, and active-adult buyers
Strong balance sheet and credit ratings
Insider & director ownership of approximately 10.6% at
FYE 2013
Recently completed purchase of land and homebuilding
operation of Shapell Homes in Coastal California
5
Ocean’s Edge at Singer Island, Singer Island, FL
6
The #1 Brand In Luxury Home Building
Toll Brothers named Builder of
the Year by Professional Builder
Magazine for 2012: First two-
time recipient
Honored to have won all three
most coveted awards in the
home building industry:
– Professional Builder of the Year
– America’s Best Builder
– National Housing Quality Award
7
Toll Brothers
Q1 FY2014 and FY2013 Results
3 Months Ended January 31, Fiscal Year Ended October 31,
($ in millions), except Avg Prices 2014 2013 % Change 2013 2012 % Change
Contracts
Units 916 973 -5.9% 5,294 4,159 27.3%
Total $702 $614 14.2% $3,634 $2,558 42.1%
Avg Price ($ in 000's) $766 $631 21.4% $686 $615 11.6%
Backlog
Units 3,667 2,796 31.2% 3,679 2,569 43.2%
Total $2,690 $1,860 44.6% $2,630 $1,670 57.5%
Avg Price ($ in 000's) $733 $665 10.2% $715 $650 10.0%
Deliveries
Units 928 746 24.4% 4,184 3,286 27.3%
Total $644 $425 51.6% $2,674 $1,883 42.0%
Avg Price ($ in 000's) $694 $569 22.0% $639 $573 11.6%
8
Opportunity Overview
San Diego
Orinda
Alamo Creek
Gale Ranch
Evergreen
Gilroy
Plum Canyon
Porter Ranch
Thousand Oaks
Yorba Linda
Carlsbad
NorCal
SoCal Laguna Niguel
Acquisition announced in November 2013
and closed February 2014
One of the largest homebuilders in
California and the leading builder in several
of the state’s premier, high-growth markets
18 active selling communities and land
holdings with over 5,200 concentrated lots
in 15 locations
Well-known luxury brand with a reputation
for delivering high-quality, sought-after
home product
Sizable amount of lots concentrated in a
manageable number of communities
Geographic Footprint Highly Attractive and Proven Lot Locations in NorCal and SoCal
Acquisition of Shapell Homes: Leading Coastal California
Homebuilder and Developer
9
Shapell is an active homebuilder in many of the same markets as Toll and adds immediate
scale to Toll’s California Division
97.5% of Shapell’s lots have been entitled
Source: Shapell Industries, Inc..
08/31/13 Lot Breakdown By Status (08/31/13)
($ in 000s) City Metro Area Backlog Raw Graded Finished WIP Models Total Lots Remaining
Northern California
Gale Ranch San Ramon San Francisco 55 -- 1,217 202 100 19 1,538
Alamo Creek Danville San Francisco 40 -- 159 138 46 10 353
Gilroy Gilroy San Fran - Santa Clara -- -- -- 59 -- 1 60
Evergreen San Jose San Fran - Santa Clara 13 -- -- -- 24 -- 24
Orinda Orinda San Francisco -- -- -- 22 3 -- 25
Northern California Subtotal 108 -- 1,376 421 173 30 2,000
Southern California
Porter Ranch Porter Ranch Los Angeles 41 904 746 74 47 15 1,786
Plum Canyon Santa Clarita Los Angeles 34 -- 503 100 45 8 656
Yorba Linda Yorba Linda Orange County 22 288 -- 63 31 15 397
Carlsbad Carlsbad San Diego - Carlsbad -- 305 -- -- -- -- 305
Laguna Niguel Laguna Niguel Orange County 14 -- -- 31 16 4 51
Thousand Oaks Thousand Oaks Los Angeles -- -- -- 24 -- -- 24
Southern California Subtotal 111 1,497 1,249 292 139 42 3,219
Total 219 1,497 2,625 713 312 72 5,219
Shapell: Overview of
Lots and Communities
10
Overview of Transaction Financing
Total purchase price of ~$1.60 billion, all
cash, for 5,200 lots plus Shapell’s
homebuilding operations
The purchase was financed using a
combination of equity and debt:
~$230 million of equity raised Nov 2013
$600 million of senior 5- and 10-year
unsecured debt raised Nov 2013
$485 million five-year bank term loan
raised Feb 2014
$370 million draw on our existing $1.035
billion senior unsecured credit facility that
has since been fully repaid
11
Bolsters footprint in key proven coastal California locations that fit extremely well within
Toll’s current divisional operations
Toll owns or controls approximately 9,200 lots in what we believe are the best locations
in California – at the corner of “Main St. and Main St.”
Complementary luxury brand with a reputation for delivery of high-quality, sought-after
home product and communities
Builds upon recent success of Toll Amalfi Hills land purchase from Shapell
California housing market dynamics support incremental investment with many of
Shapell’s markets experiencing double digit price appreciation
Shapell’s seasoned management team adds capacity to Toll’s already proven local
homebuilding and land development expertise
Strategic
Rationale
Financial
Rationale
We believe the transaction will be accretive to EPS in the first year of the transaction,
excluding transaction costs
Toll intends to selectively sell off approximately $500 million of land to de-lever the
balance sheet, and reduce California concentration
We believe the transaction will return significant cash within 18 months of purchase
Competitive Advantages From
Shapell Acquisition
12
Key Metrics Improving
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Pre-tax Income (000s) ($117,187) ($29,366) $112,942 $267,697
EBITDA (000s) $172,036 $207,536 $281,552 $462,189
Cash and Marketable Securities (000s) $1,236,927 $1,139,912 $1,217,892 $825,480
Impairments (000s) $115,258 $51,837 $14,739 $4,562
Selling Community Count 195 215 224 232
Total Spec Count 737 703 523 571
Owned Lots 28,891 30,199 31,327 33,967
Controlled Lots 34,852 37,497 40,350 48,628
Cancellation Rate 6.6% 6.1% 4.2% 4.7%
Through October 31, 2013
13
Current U.S. Housing Market
Still in the early stages of a recovery
Six years of pent-up demand: Increasing
Household Formations
Limited inventory (existing and new)
Interest rates remain low; Affordability
remains solid
Home purchase decision is a confidence
sensitive issue
The Fairhaven, Regency at Yardley, Yardley, PA
14
Basic Demographics Drive An
Industry Emerging From Its Slumber
1,585
726
858
1970-2007 2008-2013
Annual Shortfall in Production
(est.)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Total estimated shortfall of 5.1 million houses from 2008-2013. (# in thousands)
Actual Average Annual Housing Starts
Average Annual Housing Starts
15
Nationwide Footprint Positions Us For Growth
19 States
50 Markets
Austin
Dallas
Phoenix
San Francisco
Philadelphia
Charlotte Raleigh
Ft . Myers West Palm Beach
New York
Washington DC
Los Angeles
Naples
Las Vegas
San Diego
Hartford
Miami
Detroit
Chicago
Wilmington
Princeton
Boston
Palm Springs
Denver
San Antonio
Jupiter
Reno
Jacksonville
Orlando
Minneapolis
San Jose
Houston
Seattle
North Mid-Atlantic South West
R E G I O N S
City Living
16
$249 $253 $292 $293 $297 $305
$331 $345 $349
$413
$639
$694
DR Horton Beazer KB Home Lennar Ryland Pulte Hovnanian MDC NVR St Pac TollBrothers
Q1 FY2014
Average Home Price* ($000)
Only National Homebuilder Focused On Luxury Market
Toll’s main competitors are small private builders, not the larger public builders.
*Updated based on most recent reported fiscal year end deliveries as of December 31, 2013.
17
Toll Home Sale Prices Q1 FY 2014*
2%
72%
14% 13%
Under $300,000
$300,000 to $749,999
$750,000 to $999,999
Over $1,000,000
73%
Under
$750,000
Numbers may not add due to rounding
*In Units
18
The Widest Variety Of Homes In The Industry
Move-up
Empty-Nester
Active Adult
Second Home
Urban-Infill Condo
Urban Redevelopment
Golf Course &
Country Club
High-Rise
Suburban High-Density
Urban and Suburban
Rental Apartments
19
92%
1%8%
FY 2000
Single-Family Age-Qualified Multi-Family (For-Sale) High-Rise
Evolving Product Diversification (by revenues)
73%
8%
13%
6%
FY 2013
20
Move-up
20 The Hampton Georgian at Randolph Ridge, Randolph, NJ
21
Empty Nester
21 The Villa Lago at Frenchman’s Harbor, North Palm Beach, FL
22
Active Adult
22 The Clubhouse at Regency at Monroe, Monroe Township, NJ
23
Master Planned
23 Jupiter Country Club Entrance, Jupiter, FL
24
Second Home
24 The Savino At Montevista, Phoenix, AZ
25
Urban Redevelopment
25 Harborside Loft, Hoboken, NJ
26
Suburban High Density
27
Urban Infill
27
28
Current City Living Pipeline*
Estimated Timing
Units Estimated Revenue
Construction Start
Open for Sale
1st Settlement
The Touraine (Manhattan)** 1 $18 million Oct-10 Oct-11 Jun-13
2400 South – Towns (Phila)** 19 $13 million Feb-12 Apr-12 Oct-13
Naval Square – Lawrence Place (Phila)** 7 $3 million Mar-11 Jun-12 Apr-13
Maxwell C (Hoboken) 99 $106 million Jan-12 Feb-13 Mar-14
160 East 22nd (Manhattan) 16 $37 million May-12 Feb-13 Jul-14
410 at Society Hill (Phila) 43 $42 million Jun-13 Sept-13 Mar-15
2400 South – Condos (Phila) 48 $23 million Sep-13 Oct-13 Oct-14
Total 233 $242 million
*Projects open for sale as of January 31, 2014
** Began delivering units in FY 2013. Numbers shown represent remaining units to be delivered
29
Future City Living Pipeline* Estimated Timing
Units Estimated Revenue
Construction Start
Open for Sale 1st Settlement
Brooklyn Bridge Park (Brooklyn)** 108 $397 million May-13 Feb-14 Jan-16
400 Park Ave South (Manhattan) 99 $280 million Jul-12 Mar-14 Jul-15
1110 Park Ave (Manhattan) 11 $162 million Jul-13 May-14 Feb-15
The Sutton (Manhattan) 114 $225 million Jan-14 May-14 Mar-16
Hampden Row (Bethesda) 55 $69 million Feb-14 Sep-14 Oct-15
Hudson Tea E (Hoboken) 236 $183 million Jun-14 Feb-15 May-16
Provost Square (Jersey City) 501 $277 million May-15 May-15 Apr-17
Maxwell D (Hoboken) 141 $111million Nov-16 May-17 May-18
Hudson Tea D (Hoboken) 99 $79 million Apr-15 Aug-17 Aug-18
55 W 17th Street (Manhattan) 55 $179 million Oct-14 May-15 Jul-16
82 King Street (Manhattan) 192 $270 million Oct-14 Feb-19 Jun-20
Total 1,611 $2.25 billion *Projects scheduled to open for sale after January 31, 2014
** Will be delivered in joint venture
30
Focus on Land
One of the largest land
developers in the U.S.
Control 51,200 home sites*
Operate in most difficult land
approval markets in the country
Skilled in land acquisition,
approvals, and development
across all markets
Manages site design and land
improvements across most
communities
Provides protection against
potential land shortages in our
lot constrained markets
* At January 31, 2014 30
31
Building On A Solid Land Position
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014
Owned Optioned
48,628
33,118
39,146 40,844
48,058
60,189
83,126
91,207
59,251
39,784
31,917 34,852
37,497 40,350
73,768
17,127
34,108
Lots Owned and Optioned
13,500 Finished
Lots at 1/31/14
51,235
32
Number Of Selling Communities
146 155 170
200 220 230
300 315
273
200 195 215 224 232
250-290
At FYE October 31,
238
32
* Projected Range
33
Homebuilder School Quality Index
8.61 8.13 7.91
7.17 7.10 7.04 6.54 6.50
6.11 5.47 5.20 5.14
4.17 3.65
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TOL TMHC WY MTH SPF PHM RYL MHO HOV MDC LEN BZH DHI KBH
Average School District Rating (0-10 Scale)
Source: GreatSchools.org and Raymond James analysis (August 28, 2013)
34
ESE Consultants
ESE is a full service land engineering firm that provides a wide range of services to Toll Brothers.
Every ESE plan is designed for approvals, constructability and most importantly, the end use…a luxury home community.
Having an in-house engineering company allows:
Superior land acquisition / evaluation/ support
Maximize premium lots
Maximize land value – not total home sites
35
Custom Homes Built Using High Volume Technology
Toll’s luxury systems developed over
40 years
Buyers choose from hundreds of
structural and designer options
In FY 2013 the average buyer added
approximately $116,000 in options and
premiums, consistent with 18 - 22% of
base in prior years
Provides competitive advantage vs.
small builders
Toll Architecture systemizes high
volume home production
The Henley at The Estates at Garnet Valley, Glen Mills, PA
36
Toll Architecture
Designing customized
homes for high volume
production
Introduces 70 new
models annually
Pre-designs every home
and option to improve
production quality and
efficiency
37
Toll Integrated Systems – Panel & Truss Plant
Manufactures and distributes wall
panels, floor and roof trusses,
signature millwork, windows, and
doors.
Operates four plants in suburban
Philadelphia, Virginia, and Indiana.
Builds more than 150 different homes
with multiple elevations and hundreds
of options.
Improves timeline, quality, costs, and
reduces waste.
Reduces dependence on skilled
carpenters in times of labor shortage.
38
TBI Mortgage
Served 64% of Toll buyers using mortgages in Q1 FY 2014
Pre-sells loans individually to minimize risk
Investors who provide our customers with mortgages have continued to issue new commitments
Our buyers have strong credit profiles with Q1 FY 2014 FICO scores of 757 on conforming loans and jumbo loans
Average LTV of 68.2% in Q1 FY 2014
Only 20% of buyers used jumbo mortgages in Q1 FY 2014
38
The Monterey at Lakewind on Lake Travis, Austin, TX
39
Diverse Income Streams
Toll Brothers, Inc.
Suburban Home Building
(For Sale) Land Sales
City Living (Condo for Sale)
Apartment Living
(Rental)
Ancillary Businesses
- 50 markets in 19 state and Washington, DC • Move up • Empty nester • Active Adult • Second home • Master-
planned resort style
• Suburban high density
- Gibraltar Capital and Asset Management
- TBI Mortgage - Golf Course
Development Management
- Toll Landscaping - Security - Title
- Located in Urban and Suburban locations
- 4 projects under development
- 3,800 units in the pipeline
- Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, NYC
- Hoboken and Jersey City, NJ
- Metro Washington, DC
- Philadelphia, PA
- Shapell - Woodbridge at
Spring Creek - Northwoods - Travisso - Other lot sales
to 3rd parties
40
Overview Of Gibraltar Capital
An industry leader in the acquisition, management, and resolution of
non-performing AD&C and CRE loans, portfolios, and properties
Capitalizes on Toll’s core expertise, nationwide presence, and
relationships
Expands Toll’s ability to identify and control attractive land at historically
low valuations and create value
Deals done as majority partner, minority partner, and wholly owned in
portfolio on a single loan
At Q1 FY 2014, Toll’s investment in Gibraltar was $91.3 million
In Q1 FY 2014, Gibraltar generated pretax income of $3.3 million
Wholly/majority own 1,400 improved lots and land for 6,800 future lots*
*excludes assets in the Amtrust portfolio where our interest is 8%
41
Toll Apartment Living
Investing in apartment development to
maximize synergies of our operations
and hedge for-sale cyclicality
Developed & operate 1,441 units
1,502 units under construction in
Jersey City, NJ, Washington, D.C.,
Plymouth Meeting PA and East
Brunswick, NJ
Control land for 3,802 future apartment
units in Northeast Mid-Atlantic corridor
Expect to invest an additional $100
million to $200 million in Toll Apartment
Living over next 2 years
Dulles Green, Herndon, VA
42
What’s New Since the Downturn?
New Markets
Entered major markets of Houston (2009) and
Seattle (2011)
Reentered Austin (2013)
Expanding Product Lines
Expanded City Living within Metro NYC and
Philadelphia, introduced City Living to Metro
Washington D.C. (2013), with other major markets
under consideration
Expanding Active Adult beyond East and Midwest
into Western U.S. (2013)
New Initiatives
Formed Gibraltar Capital (2010)
Developing apartments in Northeast and Mid Atlantic
Parkridge at The Woodlands, Redmond, WA
43
Superior Capital Market Access
SENIOR/CORPORATE CREDIT RATINGS
Fitch Inc. BBB- (Stable)
Standard & Poor’s BB+ (Stable)
Moody’s Ba1 (Stable)
All three affirmed Toll’s Credit Ratings after Shapell acquisition announcement Nov 2013.
44 44
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
$268 $300
$400
$485
$250
$420 $400
$250
FY
Public Debt (Senior)
Convertible Debt (Senior)**
$288
$350
Bank Debt
Maintain Conservative Debt Maturities* Accessing Capital For Growth
$ millions
*As of February 26, 2014
**Convertible notes mature in September 2032. Holders’ first put right is December 2017 at a conversion price of $49.08
45
Strong Balance Sheet Provides Room to Grow
46.0% 48.2%
46.2%
40.9%
35.5%
27.6%
31.8%
26.8%
12.6%
7.4%
13.6% 15.0%
23.6%
32.5%
47.0%
At FYE October 31,
Net Debt To Capital*
2000-2013
*Calculated as total debt minus mortgage warehouse loans minus cash and marketable
securities divided by total debt minus mortgage warehouse loans minus cash and marketable
securities plus stockholders’ equity.
**Pro Forma net debt to capital ratio after completing the Shapell acquisition on Feb. 4, 2014.
46
Capitalization*
Toll Brothers Inc.
First Huntingdon Finance Corp. Toll Brothers Finance Corp.
*As of February 4, 2014
**$288 mill of Convertible notes mature in September 2032. Holders’ first put right is December 2017 at a conversion price of $49.08
46
$1.035 BN Revolving Credit Facility $500 MM Revolving Credit Facility $485 MM Term Loan Facility Senior Notes
Due August 2018 Due February 2015 Due February 2019
Citi $100 MM Citi $100 MM SunTrust $100 MM
Deutsche Bank $100 MM Deutsche Bank $100 MM Sumitomo Mitsui $75 MM Principal Coupon Maturity
Royal Bank of Scotland $100 MM Royal Bank of Scotland $100 MM US Bank $75 MM
PNC $100 MM PNC $100 MM Capital One $50 MM $268 MM 4.950% March 2014
SunTrust $100 MM SunTrust $100 MM Wells Fargo $50 MM $300 MM 5.150% May 2015
Capital One $75 MM Bank of New York $40 MM $400 MM 8.910% October 2017
US Bank $75 MM Beneficial Bank $30 MM $288 MM 0.500% December 2017**
Wells Fargo $75 MM Fifth Third Bank $30 MM $350 MM 4.000% December 2018
Bank of America $50 MM PNC $25 MM $250 MM 6.750% November 2019
Comerica $50 MM Mega International $10 MM $420 MM 5.875% February 2022
Fifth Third Bank $50 MM $400 MM 4.375% April 2023
Regions Bank $50 MM $250 MM 5.625% January 2024
Sumitomo Mitsui $50 MM
Texas Capital Bank $35 MM
TD Bank $25 MM Total Weighted Average
TOTAL $1,035 MM TOTAL $500 MM TOTAL $485 MM $2,925 MM 5.227% 5.36 years
47
Sector Has Room to Grow
*Average since 1970
**Source: U.S. Census Bureau
***Source: Freddie Mac
December 2013
Long-Term Average*
Total Housing Starts** 1.0 mil 1.5 mil
New Home Inventory** 5.0 months 6.2 months
Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate*** 4.46% 8.68%
Beachfront at Singer Island, Singer Island, FL
48
Toll Has Room to Grow
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Pre-
Downturn
Average*
Contracts Per Community 13.6 13.7 18.2 23.5 28.7
Gross Margin (%) (exl. Impairments, incl. interest) 15.6% 18.1% 19.4% 20.4% 22.4%
SG & A % of Revenue 17.6% 17.7% 15.3% 12.7% 9.7%
Operating Margin (11.2%) (3.2%) 3.4% 7.5% 12.3%
*Average from FY 1993 – FY 2004
49
Long Term Industry Fundamentals Favorable
Population growth and positive
demographic trends
Mortgage rates at historical lows
Affordability near all-time high
Few land entitlements have been
processed for several years in many
markets resulting in lot shortages
Six years of pent up demand releasing
Constrained capital availability favors
largest builders
50
Unemployment Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-93
Jul-
93
Jan
-94
Jul-
94
Jan
-95
Jul-
95
Jan
-96
Jul-
96
Jan
-97
Jul-
97
Jan
-98
Jul-
98
Jan
-99
Jul-
99
Jan
-00
Jul-
00
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
UN
EM
PL
OY
ME
NT
RA
TE
(%
)
January 2014 Civilian Labor Force Rate 6.6%
College Graduate Rate 3.2%
Civilian Labor Force
College Graduates
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
51
Baby Boomers Drive Luxury Market
2.75
2.95
3.15
3.35
3.55
3.75
3.95
4.15
4.35
4.55
4.75
195
4
195
5
195
6
195
7
195
8
195
9
196
0
196
1
196
2
196
3
196
4
196
5
196
6
196
7
196
8
196
9
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
Birth
s (
Mill
ion
s)
U.S. BIRTHS 1954-2010
52
$100,000+ Income Households Growing 3 Times Faster Than All U.S. Households
1980 2012
82.4
122.5
All Households (mill)
1980 2012
10.5
26.9
$100,000+ Income Households (mill)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (P60-245)
(2012 Dollars)
53
1970-1979
Average
Annual
Housing
Starts
1.77 (mil)
1980-1989
Average
Annual
Housing
Starts
1.49 (mil)
1990-1999
Average
Annual
Housing
Starts
1.37 (mil)
2000-2007
Average
Annual
Housing
Starts
1.74 (mil)
2008-2012
Average
Annual
Housing
Starts
.69 (mil)
Housing Starts vs. Household Growth
0.00
800.00
1,600.00
2,400.00
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Ho
us
eh
old
s (
00
0)
Ho
us
ing
Sta
rts (0
00
)
N u m b e r o f H o u s e h o l d s H a s G r o w n 7 8 % S i n c e 1 9 7 0
Total Single and Multi-
Family Housing Starts
Total
Households
54
Why Toll Brothers?
A proven management team with a tremendous track record.
The dominant player with few competitors in the luxury market.
Control 51,200 lots in a lot-constrained environment.
A strong balance sheet and nationwide brand.
A homebuilder with a niche in urban, rental and distressed real estate.
The nation's growing number of affluent households.
The nation's strong baby-boomer-driven demographic growth.
Strongest buyer profile in the industry.
54
55