rating: buy · data drives value. in our opinion, tg’s pipeline currently boasts two strong...
TRANSCRIPT
Initiating CoverageHealthcare
October 27, 2014
TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX)Rating: Buy
Reni Benjamin, Ph.D.212-356-0542
Two Blockbuster Therapies in One Company; Initiating with Buy Rating
Stock Data 10/24/2014Price $10.89Exchange NASDAQPrice Target $17.0052-Week High $12.4552-Week Low $2.97Enterprise Value (MM) $370Market Cap (MM) $415Public Market Float (MM) 16.0Shares Outstanding (MM) 38.13 Month Avg Volume 421,509Short Interest (MM) 3.10Balance Sheet MetricsCash (MM) $43.0Total Debt (MM) $0.2
Cash (MM): pro forma
EPS DilutedFull Year - Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E1Q -- (0.25)A --2Q -- (0.36)A --3Q -- (0.36) --4Q -- (0.34) --FY (0.81) (1.33) (1.39)Revenue ($M) DilutedFull Year - Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E1Q -- 0.04A --2Q -- 0.04A --3Q -- 0.04 --4Q -- 0.04 --FY 0.15 0.15 0.16
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Investment opinion. We are initiating coverage of TG Therapeuticswith a Buy rating and a target price of $17, based on a discountedrevenues and earnings per share valuation methodology. TGTherapeutics’ core franchise is comprised of a glycoengineered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody and a novel PI3Kδ inhibitor targeting B-cell lymphomas. The company has multiple Phase 1 and 2 clinicalstudies ongoing with the potential to report updated data over thenext 12 months. In addition, with a SPA in place, the company ispoised to begin a registration study in combination with ibrutinib in4Q14. With two de-risked lead assets ready to target multi-billion dollartherapeutic areas, news flow to generate shareholder value, and acash position of $43 MM (pro forma), expected to fund operations until2H15, we believe TG Therapeutics represents an undervalued playerwith significant upside for the long-term investor.
TG-1101/TGR-1202: A blockbuster in tandem or separately. Phase1 and 2 clinical studies of lead therapeutic candidates TG-1101 andTGR-1202 have demonstrated excellent safety and a comparableor better efficacy relative to other marketed products. Preliminarydata evaluating TG-1101 with ibrutinib demonstrated a superior 100%overall response rate in relapsed CLL as compared to 43% foribrutinib alone and equivalent to ibrutinib in combination with Rituxan.Similarly, TGR-1202 has shown significantly lower liver toxicities whencompared to Gilead’s (GILD; not rated) Zydelig which suggests tous that potential combination therapies may be better tolerated withTGR-1202. Despite a growing competitive landscape, we believemultiple opportunities exist for assets displaying efficacy and betterside effect profiles to gain market share versus existing therapies.
Licensing and takeout potential. We believe the recent AbbVie(ABBV; not rated) mega-deal with Infinity (INFI; not rated) for theworld-wide rights to IPI-145 ($275 MM upfront and $530 MM inmilestones) underscores the upside potential at TG Therapeutics.While we believe that Pharmacyclics (PCYC; not rated) representsthe ideal suitor given the myriad of studies currently underwaycombining ibrutinib with CD20-targeting monoclonal antibodies andPI3Kδ inhibitors, we cannot rule out the possibility of separatepartnership/licensing opportunities for each asset.
Data drives value. In our opinion, TG’s pipeline currently boaststwo strong therapeutic candidates with excellent safety profiles. Ifsuccessfully initiated, the Phase 3 study evaluating TG-1101 andibrutinib could report results as early as 2016, representing afundamental inflection point for investors. In the meantime, ongoingPhase 1 and 2 studies in CLL and NHL have the potential to reportupdated results at the American Society of Hematology Meeting in4Q14, representing near-term drivers for investors.
Valuation. We value TG Therapeutics using a discounted earningsper share and revenue multiple analysis. Applying an 8x multiple to ourrisk (50%) adjusted 2023 revenues of approximately $1.01 billion anda 28x multiple to our 2023 earnings per share of approximately $4.63,we obtain a 12-month price target of $17.25, which we round to $17.
For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 40 - 41 of this report
Investment Summary
TG Therapeutics, based in New York City, is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on
acquiring, developing and commercializing innovative therapies for the treatment of cancer and
other large areas of unmet need. Currently, the company is developing two therapies targeting
hematological malignancies. TG-1101 (ublituximab) is a novel, glycoengineered monoclonal
antibody that targets a specific epitope of the CD20 antigen found on B-lymphocyte cell surfaces.
CD20 is an established target of monoclonal antibodies including rituximab, obinutuzumab, and
ofatumumab, all of which are currently approved for the treatment of B-cell lymphomas and
leukemias. Additionally, the company is also developing TGR-1202, an orally available PI3Kδ
inhibitor. PI3Kδ is another validated target whose expression is linked to the proliferation and
survival of B-lymphocytes, and was integral in the approval of Gilead’s (GILD; not rated) idelalisib.
The company also has a preclinical IRAK4 inhibitor program which was in-licensed from Ligand
Pharmaceuticals (LGND; not rated). IRAK4 is a signaling kinase that is dysregulated in tumors
that carry certain oncogenic mutations of MYD88, commonly found in patients with
Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia. Finally, Big Pharma’s interest in the treatment of B-cell
lymphomas has taken center stage given the upcoming patent expiration of rituximab. Notably,
AbbVie’s recent licensing deal for IPI-145 is potentially worth $805 MM and highlights the growing
interest in the space. Importantly, this deal only includes a PI3K inhibitor while TG Therapeutics
maintains the world-wide rights to both TG-1101 and TGR-1202.
Valuation
We value TG Therapeutics using a discounted earnings per share and revenue multiple analysis.
Applying an 8x multiple to our risk (50%) adjusted 2023 revenues of approximately $1.01 billion
and discounting additionally by 30% over 8.0 periods, we obtain a $16.79 target price. Applying a
28x multiple to our probability adjusted 2023 earnings per share of approximately $4.63 and
discounting additionally by 30% over 8.0 periods, we obtain a price target of $15.88. Averaging
the results from these two methods and adding the projected cash per share in 12 months, we
obtain a 12-month price target of $17.25, which we round to $17.
Newsworthy Events and Milestones for 2014-2015
TG-1101 in R/R CLL
Potential to commence the Phase 3 R/R CLL trial in combination with ibrutinib (4Q14)
TG-1101 / TGR-1202 in R/R NHL and CLL
Additional Phase 1/2 data from R/R NHL (4Q14)
Potential to initiate a Phase 2 combination study in R/R NHL (2Q15)
Potential to have combination data of TG-1101/TGR-1202/ibrutinib in R/R CLL (2H15)
TGR-1202 in R/R CLL, NHL and untreated CLL
Additional Phase 1 results from TGR-1202 as a single agent in relapse CLL/NHL (4Q14)
Potential to optimize micronized dosing schedules of TGR-1202 in monotherapy (1H15)
Potential to complete Phase 1 trial with Gazyva and Chlorambucil in previously untreated
CLL patients (2H15)
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 2
Risk Analysis
In addition to development, manufacturing, marketing, and financial risks associated with
emerging biotechnology companies, specific additional risk factors to be considered are as
follows:
Clinical/Regulatory Risk
TG Therapeutics current product candidates, TG-1101 and TGR-1202, target different receptors
and could have synergistic potential and both therapeutic candidates are in early stages of clinical
development. TG-1101 is currently in Phase 2 evaluation in combination with ibrutinib for MCL
and CLL, and Phase 1 evaluation in combination with TGR-1202 in hematological malignancies.
TGR-1202 is also being evaluated in a Phase 1 trial as a single agent therapy for hematological
malignancies. The current ongoing clinical trials may not generate statistically significant or
clinically meaningful results.
Commercial Risk
TG-1101 is chemically distinct from conventional antibodies by virtue of its engineered glycans.
Glycoengineered biologics may be more expensive to manufacture and supply to the end user
than conventional monoclonal antibodies, resulting in elevated cost of goods sold relative to
competing monoclonal antibodies that target CD20. Additionally rituximab is coming off patent
and at least one biosimilar will be expected onto the market by 2017. As such, TG’s products may
not obtain the market penetration and sales forecasted by our estimates or those of the company
given the competitive marketplace and pricing dynamics in place.
Financing Risk
TG Therapeutics has a cash position of approximately $43 MM (pro forma). With consideration of
ongoing Phase 1 and 2 trial costs as well as the possibility to initiate a Phase 3 trial in R/R CLL by
4Q14, we project burn rate of approximately $9 MM per quarter suggesting that the cash position
should be sufficient to fund operations until 2H15. In the event that an ex-US partner cannot be
found, the company may need to seek dilutive financing options via the capital markets in order to
complete development of the clinical pipeline.
Intellectual Property and Licensing Risk
TG currently has exclusive commercial rights and five US issued patents for TGR-1202 which
expire in 2021 and 2024. The TG-1101 platform is protected by a wide body of intellectual
property, including patent and patent applications which protect structure, mechanism of action
and method of use of TG-1101 as single or in combination therapy. In the US, the company has
seven issued patents protecting TG-1101 which expire 2021 and 2024.
Market Risk
Small-cap biotechnology stocks are inherently volatile and often illiquid. They are not appropriate
for investors with a low-risk profile.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 3
Investment Highlights
Attacking Cancer by Inhibiting Established Protein Targets
The first successful monoclonal antibody (rituximab) contained a human IgG constant
region and murine variable CD20 binding region. The chimeric nature of the construct
allowed for a prolonged half-life mediating sustained downstream effects. Despite a
successful and historic launch trajectory (peak WW sales >$7 billion), patients on
rituximab treatment require extensive infusion times, are subject to hypersensitivity
reactions, and are likely to relapse over time.
Subsequent anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies have attempted to address rituximab’s
shortcomings with varying success. Fully-humanized antibodies have been designed to
minimize the observed immunogenicity believed to be caused by rituximab’s chimeric
nature. Further modifications to the variable and constant regions have been attempted
to augment activity and antigen binding affinity to CD20 (obinutuzumab, ofatumumab). To
date, GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK; not rated) Arzerra (ofatumumab) was granted full
approval for untreated CLL patients for whom fludarabine-based therapy is not
considered appropriate (2014) and accelerated approval in CLL patients who are
refractory to fludarabine and alemtuzumab (2009), while Roche’s (RHHBY; not rated)
Gazyva (obinutuzumab) was the first drug to be approved after receiving breakthrough
therapy designation.
While the landscape appears to have its fill of CD20 monoclonal antibodies, we believe
room exists, not necessarily from agents that can produce greater efficacy, but from
those that can be better tolerated. The majority of the products listed above are rarely
used as a monotherapy, but rather in combination with other agents with separate, and
sometimes overlapping, toxicity profiles. If novel CD20 antibodies with lower side effect
profiles are developed, we believe the big Pharma/big Biotech companies would pay a
substantial premium to harness the multiple revenue streams.
TG-1101 (ublituximab) Shows Strong Efficacy in Single Agent and Combination Trials
The prevalence of NHL exceeds 540,000 individuals within the US and the majority of
NHL patients receive rituximab, resulting in an overall market size of nearly $7 billion.1
Despite treatment with rituximab, approximately 50% of all patients will relapse.2 We
estimate the 2023 US and EU market size for indolent NHL to be approximately $13
billion with a second-line CLL market size reach approximately $1.2 billion.
TG-1101 is a third-generation, Type I chimeric monoclonal antibody which binds a
specific epitope of the CD20 antigen, displaying impressive results even in low CD20
expression B-cells. The constant region has also been glycoengineered to have high
antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) and moderate complement-dependent
cytotoxicity (CDC) activity, relative to rituximab (which has low ADCC but high CDC
activity) and obinutuzumab (which displays high ADCC but low CDC activity).
1 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, Sagient Analysis 2014 2 Sagient Analysis, BioMedTracker 2014
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 4
Three clinical studies to date highlight a differentiated profile as both a monotherapy and
in combination with other approved therapies:
- Two monotherapy studies evaluating TG-1101 in both CLL and NHL demonstrated
strong efficacy and safety results. In the first Phase 1b, single-low dose study (450
mg) within 12 relapse/refractory CLL patients (most with high-risk cytogenetics)
showed a 63.6% (n=7) partial response rate at 4 months with a second follow-up at
6-months showing a partial response rate of 45.5% (n=5) among the 11 evaluable
patients. Responses were highly durable with all five patients maintaining durable
partial responses at one year. Safety data was encouraging with all except one
patient receiving the eight planned infusions.
- A second 35-patient Phase 1/2 dose-ranging (450 mg to 1200 mg) and dose
confirmation study evaluating TG-1101 in patients with prior exposure to Rituximab.
Those with relapsed and refractory CLL (n=6) demonstrated a 67% overall response
rate (ORR) and an 80% to near 100% decrease in absolute lymphocyte count (ALC)
while on treatment. In our opinion, the 43% ORR (CLL and NHL) and 45.5% ORR
(CLL) observed in both studies (includes only CRs and PRs), with the majority of
responders demonstrating a durable response for more than 1 year while on
maintenance ublituximab, demonstrates strong single agent activity comparable to
other glycoengineered monoclonal antibodies in development and on the market
(Figure 1). In addition to the efficacy profile, patients treated at the highest doses
tested demonstrated no dose limiting toxicities (DLTs) and primarily grade 1/2
adverse events including infusion-related reactions. Taken together, we believe the
data set the stage for the potential to combine TG-1101 with other therapeutics in an
effort to boost efficacy without a concomitant increase in toxicity.
Figure 1: Best Change from Baseline in Nodal Size
Source: TG Therapeutics company reports
- TG Therapeutics also has an ongoing 28 patient Phase 2 trial evaluating TG-1101 in
combination with Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ; not rated) ibrutinib in both
relapsed/refractory CLL and MCL. The primary endpoint is an evaluation of safety for
the combination treatment with an ORR at up to 6 months as the secondary endpoint.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 5
Of the 10 evaluable patients at the latest update (Figure 2), the combination
generated a 100% ORR and a mean 79% decrease in ibrutinib-related
lymphocytosis. In particular, an 86% ORR (six PR out of seven patients) in CLL
patients was subsequently converted to 100% ORR (seven PRs) compared to
ibrutinib’s Phase 3 RESONATE trial which demonstrated an ORR of 42.6% (all PRs).
From a side effect perspective, all rash, elevated creatinine, and grade 3/4 diarrhea
events were deemed related to ibrutinib and the infusion related reactions related to
TG-1101. We view these results as further evidence of the synergistic potential of
both drugs to significantly increase response rates without an additive effect on
toxicity.
These promising results led to a Phase 3 SPA for TG-1101 in combination with
ibrutinib for the treatment of CLL patients. The Phase 3 randomized trial is designed
to enroll 330 patients across two treatment cohorts: ibrutinib alone and ibrutinib in
combination with TG-1101. As per the SPA, the primary endpoint will be ORR and
will form the basis for a submission of a BLA for accelerated approval. All patients will
then be followed for PFS assessment to support full approval. Given that the
company could initiate the trial in 4Q14 and ORR can be assessed rather quickly (in
2016/early 2017), we believe TG1101 could achieve market approval by 2H17.
Figure 2: Change from Baseline in Nodal Size at First Assessment
Source: EHA poster presentation
Comparing monotherapy efficacy data between TG-1101 and Gazyva across
relapse/refractory indolent NHL subtypes shows similar overall response rates across
both treatment regimens. However, the 18 indolent NHL patients treated with TG-1101
showed an impressive 22% complete response rate (n=4) compared to a 5% complete
response rate (n=2) among patients treated with Gazyva (Table 1). Investors should also
note the impressive safety data for TG-1101. Among the 27 NHL patients treated with
TG-1101 only 1 patient experienced grade 3 anemia; in comparison, among the 40 iNHL
patients treated with Gazyva, 5 serious adverse events (grade 3/4) were noted, four of
which were serious hematological related AEs. In our opinion, this combination of
efficacy and safety in a difficult to treat population signifies significant opportunity for TG-
1101 within R/R NHL populations.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 6
Table 1: Comparison of Monotherapy Response Rates between Gazyva and TG-1101
Gazyva TG-1101
Number of Patients (R/R
iNHL) 40 18
End of treatment
response (R/R iNHL) 38% 44%
Complete Response
(R/R iNHL) 5% 22%
Safety (NHL) SAE: 12.5% SAE: 3.7%
Source: EHA 2010, ASH 2010, TG Therapeutics
TGR1202 Shows Excellent Efficacy with Possible Best-in-class Safety
TG Therapeutics is also developing a PI3Kδ inhibitor for B-cell lymphomas. Similar to
Gilead’s idelalisib, TGR-1202 in vitro studies have shown a 50-fold preferential binding
for delta over gamma subunits. Importantly, TGR-1202 has a distinct structural backbone
that could potentially minimize hepatotoxicity relative to idelalisib and Infinity’s IPI-145.3
TG has initiated multiple multi-center Phase 1 clinical trials evaluating the safety and
efficacy of TGR-1202. A study currently ongoing involves the combination of both TG-
1101 and TGR-1202. Of 21 patients enrolled in the study and evaluable for safety,
approximately 15 were evaluable for efficacy, including those with CLL/SLL, Richter’s,
follicular lymphoma (FL), and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). While responses
were seen across both CLL/SLL and DLBCL patients, in our opinion, the robust 80%
(4/5) response rate seen in CLL/SLL patients, including two high-risk 17p/11q deletion
patients, is particularly impressive (Figure 3). Although one patient did not qualify as a PR
in terms of nodal size at first assessment, preliminary data showed that of five of five
evaluable CLL/SLL patients achieved a greater than 50% reduction in ALC by 14 days,
with one patient achieving complete normalization of ALC. In the DLBCL group, patients
had a median of three prior lines and 3/5 patients had the GCB subtype. First efficacy
measures showed a 40% overall response (n=2) including 1 PR within a GCB subtype
patient refractory to prior treatment. Notably, no liver toxicity was observed in the 21
patients treated to date.
3 EHA 2014 Poster, Burris III et al ” Activity of TGR1202, a Novel Once-Daily PI3K inhibitor, in Patients with Relapsed and
Refractory Hematologic Malignancies”.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 7
Figure 3: Nodal Size Changes in Patients Receiving TG-1101 + TGR-1202
Source: TG Therapeutics, Inc.
In light of the strong efficacy and safety data from the TG-1101 + TGR-1202
combination therapy, TG Therapeutics has amended the TGR-1202 development
program to include an extension arm for TG-1101 + TGR-1202 + ibrutinib in CLL
patients. The trial is designed to be the first triple therapy chemo free regimen for
relapse CLL patients. In our opinion, this combination will need to show efficacy
greater than ibrutinib monotherapy (ORR=42.6%) with either a faster time to
response or a high response rate to TG-1101/ibrutinib (ORR=86% in 7 evaluable
patients) and TG-1101/TGR-1202 (ORR=80% in 5 evaluable patients).
Additionally, TG has recently initiated another Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating the
safety and efficacy of TGR-1202 in combination with obinutuzumab and chlorambucil
in patients with untreated CLL. The study is set to enroll 30 patients with completion
set for June 2015. In comparison, idelalisib’s CLL registration trial with rituximab had
an overall response rate of 81%; notably, 35% of patients also experienced liver
toxicity during the pivotal trial.4
IRAK4 Inhibitors show Broad Applicability in Oncology and Autoimmune Diseases
TG is also examining the application of IRAK4 inhibitors to various targets in cancer and
autoimmune diseases. An IRAK4 inhibitor, LG0224912, licensed from Ligand
Pharmaceuticals (LGND; not rated), has shown favorable in vitro characteristics including
potent binding of the ATP binding pocket and >100 fold selectivity for IRAK4-dependent
and independent pathways.
4 NEJM, Furman et al (2014): 370( 11): 997-1007.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 8
Big Pharma’s Interest in Biotech Oncology Programs Remains High
As a reminder to investors, Big Pharma’s interest in biotech oncology programs remains
high. Since 2009, several licensing deals in oncology are worth noting, summarized in the
table below. One example, highly pertinent to TG Therapeutics, is AbbVie’s (agreement
to license the PI3K-δ/γ inhibitor duvelisib from Infinity for $275 MM upfront in a deal
potentially worth a total of $805 MM. Notably, merger and acquisition activity the biotech
industry has reached a four-year high, with over $25 billion in M&A deals recorded in
2014 thus far.
Recent Biotech Oncology Partnerships with Big Pharma
Source: Biocentury.com
Take-home points
In our opinion, both TG-1101 and TGR-1202 demonstrate solid evidence of efficacy and
durability, both as a monotherapy, and in particular, in combination with marketed
products. However, we maintain that efficacy alone cannot get both products across the
finish line. As highlighted above, a key differentiator for these two products is the side-
effect profile. Given the lower SAE’s demonstrated, we are confident that trials
evaluating combinations maybe be able to push already established dosing limits and
potentially increase efficacy rates.
We believe either one or both lead therapeutic candidates are acquisition targets within
the next 24 months. We believe that the Pharma powerhouses that are leaders in
hematology/oncology will strive to acquire and have in-house their own checkpoint
inhibitor program which could then be used to combine monoclonal antibodies or other
target therapies. Given that TG Therapeutics represents one of the few stand-alone
companies with world-wide rights to two of the most sought after targets in biotech, we
believe the company could squarely move into the acquisition cross-hairs of marquee
companies such as Pharmacyclics and Celgene (CELG; not rated) as the data from
ongoing clinical trials mature.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 9
TG Therapeutics’ Portfolio
Drug Phase Potential Indications Rights
TG-1101 +
ibrutinib Phase 3 ready Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia
TG/ LFB Group (only
royalty/milestone rights with
an option to take back
France and Belgium)/Ildong
(South Korea and select
south Asian countries
(excluding Japan)
TGR-1202 +
TG1101 +
ibrutinib Phase 1
Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia
TG/Rhizen (only rights to
India)
TGR-1202 +
TG-1101 Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
TGR-1202 Phase 1 /2 Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia /
Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
TG/Rhizen (only rights to
India)
IRAK-4 inhibitor Preclinical Cancer and Inflammatory
Disorders TG
Source: Company Reports; H.C. Wainwright Research
Investment Pros and Cons
The major investment pros and cons, as we see them, are summarized in the following table:
POSITIVES NEGATIVES
Early phase best-in-class therapy for
DLBCL GCB-subtype patients
No prior sales experience or other
marketed products
Early phase best-in-class safety profile
for TGR-1202
Clinical and regulatory risk with advanced
stage pipeline products
Strong efficacy data for TG-1101 in
combination trials with ibrutinib; a Phase
3 SPA with ORR as a primary registration
endpoint could allow TG-1101 to enter
the market by 2H17
Small cap/low share volume; subject to
market swings
Strong management team with deal
making experience
Competitive market risk with numerous
monoclonal antibodies and kinase
inhibitors reaching commercialization first
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research and TG Therapeutics
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 10
Scientific Overview and Background
The Anti-CD20 Mechanism of Action
The human immune system uses antibodies to destroy foreign material through four primary
mechanisms of action summarized in figure 4: 1) direct binding of target proteins leading to
apoptosis; 2) complement dependent cytotoxicity (CDC); 3) antibody-dependent cell mediated
cytotoxicity (ADCC); and 4) a combination of complement and antibody mediated mechanism
appropriately named complement enhanced ADCC.5 The CD20 antigen is a glycosylated and
phosphorylated protein expressed on the surface of both mature and immature B-cells.6 As a
drug target, the protein is highly expressed on B-cell lymphomas, hairy cell leukemias and B-cell
chronic lymphocytic leukemias; additionally, it is rarely down-regulated or shed after antibody
binding.7 Rituximab, a first generation Type 1 (Type 1 monoclonal antibodies rely primarily on the
CDC cascade) Anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, showed excellent efficacy in pivotal Phase 3
clinical trials through targeting the CD20 antigen and activating the CDC cascade.
Figure 4: Various Mechanisms for Cytotoxicity
Source: Am J Cancer Res. 2012;2(6):676-90.
Anti-CD20 Antibody Design
Monoclonal antibodies contain both a variable and a constant region. The variable region binds
the antigen of interest such as a specific epitope of CD20, while the constant region mediates the
downstream actions (CDC or ADCC). Factors influencing monoclonal antibody efficacy include
target accessibility, surface electrostatics, antigen affinity, and antigen-binding kinetics which are
thought to influence downstream signals. These features can be modulated with changes to both
the variable and constant regions.
5 J Clin Oncol, Bannerji et al (2003): 21: 1466-71 6 Hardy, Richard (2008). “Chapter 7: B Lymphocyte Development and Biology”. In Paul, William. Fundamental Immunology (Book)
(6th ed). 7 J. Clin Oncol. Grillo-Lopez et al (2000); 18 (17): 3135-43
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 11
The first generation of successful monoclonal anti-CD20 antibodies (rituximab) included a human
IgG constant region and murine variable CD20 binding region. Rituximab’s chimeric nature allows
for a longer half-life than previous murine antibodies; this was largely due to the humanized
constant region8 that also contained the downstream effector sequences leading to increased
cytotoxicity. Despite its efficacy, rituximab does require extensive infusion times, and patients are
subject to relapse.
Second and Third Generation Monoclonal Antibodies
Subsequent monoclonal antibodies have attempted to address rituximab’s shortcomings with
varying success. Fully-humanized antibodies, such as obinutuzumab and veltuzumab, have been
constructed to minimize the observed immunogenicity believed to arise from rituximab’s chimeric
nature. Additionally, modifications to the variable and constant regions, employed in
obinutuzumab and ofatumumab, have been introduced to modulate antigen binding affinity and
the cytotoxic response mechanism. TG-1101 is a third generation, Type I chimeric monoclonal
antibody which binds a specific epitope of the CD20 antigen, displaying activity even in low CD20
expression B-cells. In addition, the constant region has also been glycoengineered to tune the
cytotoxic response (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Mechanism of Cytotoxic Action of Select antil-CD20 Monoclonal Antibodies
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
The constant regions of IgG monoclonal antibodies are post-translationally modified with two
asparagine-linked glycans, complex and structurally diverse polymeric chains of sugar residues
including N-acetylglucosamine, mannose, galactose, sialic acid, and fucose. The glycans
attached to TG-1101 lack fucose residues, and removing core fucose from the glycans has been
shown to enhance ADCC activity. The composition of normal antibody glycans is summarized in
Figure 6a, whereas the reduced-fucose glycans used in TG-1101 are illustrated in Figure 6c.
8 J. Clin Oncol. Grillo-Lopez et al (2000); 18 (17): 3135-43
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 12
Notably, glycan engineering has been successfully employed in other approved monoclonal
antibody therapies, such as the anti-CCR4 antibody mogamulizumab.9
Figure 6: Influence of Glycoengineering on Monoclonal Antibodies
Source: MAbs 2012 Jul-Aug;4(4):419-25
Rituximab Resistance
We believe the key to therapeutic success with monoclonal antibodies lies in understanding
mechanisms for rituximab resistance. These can be broadly defined by two categories: (1) CD20
affinity; and (2) expression and mechanism of cytotoxicity.
Analysis of CD20 expression has demonstrated that acquired resistance is accompanied by
down-regulation of CD20 expression in all in vitro cell lines.10
Additional mechanisms of
resistance may exist, including secondary antigenic modulation in response to prolonged
antibody exposure.11
Similar resistance patterns can be seen in both ofatumumab and rituximab;
this could be due to the fact both antibodies bind a discontinuous but related version of the CD20
epitope.12
The cytotoxicity mechanism of action is another important factor in rituximab resistance. Recent
studies have shown that a decrease in CD20 expression is associated with an increase in
CD55/CD59 expression, both of which are important complement system regulators.13
Thus, it
may be important to develop antibodies which bypass complement regulation and use an
alternate cytotoxic method to target cancer cells. For example, glycoengineered obinutuzumab
demonstrated a five- to 50-fold enhanced induction of ADCC.14
9 MAbs 2012 Jul-Aug;4(4):419-25 10 Peer J. Small et al. (2013), Analysis of innate and acquired resistance to anti-CD20 antibodies in malignant and nonmalignant B
cells.” 11 Journal of Immunology, Beum et al(2006); 176: 2600-2609. 12 Journal of Immunology. Teeling et al(2006); 177(1): 362-371 13 Blood. Golay et al (2001); 98: 3383-3389 14 Expert Opin Biol Ther. Owen et al (2012); 12(3): 343-351.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 13
Discovery and Preclinical Investigation of TG-1101
Given that the overexpression of CD20 is implicated in B-cell lymphoma development, TG
Therapeutics has developed a bio-engineered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody targeting a specific
epitope of the CD20 antigen. Preclinical experiments show a clear in vitro and in vivo (Figures 7
and 8) mechanism of action and subsequent tumor shrinkage. When TG-1101 was administered
to B-cell CLL, there was a 10x enhanced ADCC versus rituximab (Figure 7). Importantly,
compared to both ofatumumab and rituximab, TG-1101 exhibited a potent ADCC against CD20-
low expressing cells providing support that TG-1101 may be advantageous to currently approved
CD20 monoclonal antibodies for cells expressing lower levels of CD20.
Figure 7: ADCC Activity Compared to Rituximab
Source: TG Therapeutics
Furthermore, TG-1101 has also demonstrated sustained anti-tumor activity in mouse models with
primary cerebral lymphomas (Figure 8).
Figure 8: Tumor Shrinkage Secondary to TG-1101 Administration
Source: TG Therapeutics
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 14
Clinical Trials of TG-1101
Table 2: Ongoing and Completed Clinical Development Program for TG-1101
Name Phase # of
Patients
Current Status Initiation Date Expected Upcoming
Catalyst
Phase 3 ready:
Relapse CLL
3
330
SPA reached;
not yet initiated
End of year
2014
-
Phase 1/2: B cell
lymphomas
1/2
33
Complete
March 2010
Complete
Phase 2: CLL
(w/ ibrutinib)
2
30
Enrollment
complete
December 2013
4Q14 (ASH 2014)
Phase 1:
CLL/NHL (w/
TGR-1202,
TGR1202 and
ibrutinib)
1
100
Protocol
amendment
from previous
Phase 1 trial
December 2013,
Protocol
amendment in
August 2014 to
include triple
therapy cohort
4Q14 (additional data
for TG-1101/TGR-
1202 in R/R NHL for
ASH 2014)
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
Monotherapy
TG-1101 Phase 1/2 Study CD20-0703 (France)
In 2010, prior to TG licensing the compound, LFB presented a multi-center clinical trial evaluating
TG-1101 in 21 patients with relapsed CLL. Study CD20-0703 was designed to be a two part
dose-escalation trial with data presented at the 52nd
and 53rd
ASH meetings. The study recruited
patients who had relapsed CLL and were following at least one prior course of fludarabine.
Notably, patients who had received prior treatment with an anti-CD20 antibody within six months
were excluded. Among the 21 patients recruited for Part 1 of the trial, 20 were relapse and one
patient was refractory to treatment. Twelve patients had prior exposure to rituximab and 100% of
patients displaying lymph node enlargement. The study regimen for part one involved five dosing
cohorts with doses escalated based on safety in a 3+3 design. The total dosages provided over
four weeks ranged from 75 mg in cohort A to 1650 mg in cohort E (Figure 9). Premedication
consisted of allopurinol, dexchlorpheniramine and paracetamol, combined with
methylprednisolone 1 mg/kg before the first two infusions. Patients were assessed at week 16
with a follow up assessment at week 24 for those patients who displayed a partial response at
week 16.
Figure 9: Part One Dosing Cohorts
Source: TG Therapeutics
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 15
Part two of the study evaluated the safety and efficacy profile of TG-1101 when administered in
an eight-dose regimen (150 mg initial dose, followed by seven doses of 450 mg). The 12 patients
enrolled were similar to part one with median age of 69.5, and a median of three prior therapy
lines. Results showed that 11/12 patients were able to attain near lymphocyte depletion lasting
up to 10 months after the last infusion. Furthermore TG-1101 was able to produce a PR in 45% of
evaluable patients. Predictably, Infusion Related Reactions (IRRs) were the most common
adverse event with 10 events of grade 3/4 neutropenia. All IRRs were mild in nature and no
patients required active management. Notably, no cases of serum anti-TG-1101 antibodies were
detected at any time point.
TG-1101 Phase 1/2 Study: 101
In August 2012, TG Therapeutics initiated a TG-1101 Phase 1/2 clinical trial, known as Study TG-
1101-101, in NHL/CLL patients who are refractory to rituximab containing regimens. Patients
were required to have ECOG scores of <2 and no active Hepatitis B or C infection. Study 101 has
enrolled 35 subjects (20 indolent NHL, 8 CLL, 7 aggressive NHL) in a single-center, non-
randomized, multi-dose trial for the treatment of relapse NHL. Primary outcome measures were to
assess maximum tolerated dose and dose limiting toxicities. Efficacy was a secondary endpoint.
Currently enrollment within the study is complete.
Subjects received infusions of TG-1101 once weekly for four infusions followed by maintenance
therapy. The dose cohorts were 450 mg (CLL, NHL), 600 mg (CLL, NHL), 900 mg (CLL, NHL)
and 1200 mg (NHL) respectively. The induction for NHL required TG-1101 to be administered
weekly for four weeks while the induction for CLL required TG-1101 to be administered on days
1, 8, 15 for cycles one and two. All 35 patients were evaluable for safety and 30/35 patients were
evaluated for efficacy; the median number of prior therapies was three (range from one to nine)
with 71% receiving two prior rituximab regimens.
In May 2014, TG Therapeutics announced updated interim results from their ongoing Phase 1/2
trial. The overall response rate was 43% (30% PR, 13% CR) among the 30 patient available for
efficacy analysis. Response rates were 67% (4/6) for both CLL and MZL (Figure 10). Responses
were durable, with a median duration of progression free survival (PFS) among patients who
achieved SD or better not yet reached and a median PFS for all patients on study of 34 weeks
(n=30). TG-1101 was well tolerated at all dose levels tested in the 35 patients evaluable for
safety, with day one IRRs being the most frequently reported adverse event. The IRR were
managed with infusion interruptions only and all recovered without issue.
Figure 10: Phase 1 Response Rates from TG-1101 Treatment
Source: TG Therapeutics
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 16
Combination Therapies
TG 1101 Phase 1/1b Study: 103
In 4Q13, TG initiated a multi-center Phase 1/1b clinical trial evaluating the combination of TG-
1101 and TGR-1202 for patients with relapsed CLL and NHL. Study 103 was designed to be a
two part Phase 1 trial with a dose escalation for TGR-1202 (part one) and a dose confirmation
portion (part two). The 3+3 design featured dose cohorts for TGR-1202 with doses ranging from
400 mg (micronized) to 1200 mg in combination with a TG-1101 at a dose range of 600 mg to
900 mg for CLL patients and 900 mg for NHL patients. The primary endpoint was to evaluate
safety and maximum tolerated dose. The ORR at up to one year was measured as a secondary
endpoint. Patients enrolled were heavily pre-treated with 66% receiving at least 2 lines of
rituximab therapy. Currently the company has enrolled 30 patients across both CLL and NHL with
additional results to be presented at ASH 2014.
Interim results were announced in July 2014 with 21 patients evaluated for safety and 15
evaluated for efficacy. The ORR seen was 40% across all CLL and NHL subtypes (Figure 11).
Notably CLL patients had an 80% ORR with 5/5 evaluable CLL patients achieving a >50%
reduction in ALC. Of importance, the harder to treat DLBCL-GCB subtype also responded with a
67% ORR.
Figure 11: Overall Response Rate at Interim Assessment
Source: TG Therapeutics
Predictably, IRRs were the most common adverse event with grade 3/4 neutropenia appearing in
38% of all patients. Notably, no drug-related increase in ALT/AST was observed and no patients
required their TG-1101 or TGR-1202 dose reduced. TG announced a protocol amendment in
August 2014 to add an additional cohort that combines TGR-1202, TG-1101 and ibrutinib in CLL
patients. The two-center study is designed to be adjunct to the current Phase 1 study and will
likely use the fixed doses of TG-1101 and ibrutinib (900mg and 560 mg respectively). TGR-1202
will likely be provided through a dose escalation with previous studied dose levels: 50, 100, 200,
400, 800, 1200 and 1800 QD. Given the favorable safety profile of TG-1101 + ibrutinib and TG-
1101 + TGR-1202, TG has hypothesized that a triple therapy may be well tolerated and offer
greater activity than all current doublet regimens.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 17
TG-1101 Phase 2 Study: 104
In 2Q13, TG initiated a multi-center Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the combination of TG-1101
and ibrutinib for patients with relapsed CLL and MCL. Study 104 was designed to be a two part
Phase 2 trial with a safety run in portion (part one) and an efficacy portion (part two). The dosing
levels used for TG-1101 were 600 mg, 900 mg for CLL and MCL patients. Ibrutinib was dosed at
420 mg, 560 mg for CLL and MCL patients. The primary endpoint was to evaluate safety for the
combination treatment with ORR (up to six months) as the secondary endpoint. Enrollees
included 21 CLL and seven MCL patients. Notably, 43% of enrolled patients had received greater
than three prior therapy lines. Currently the trial is ongoing with an updated data for 30 patients to
be presented at ASH 2014.
First efficacy results were seen at EHA 2014, the data at that time included 28 patients with R/R
CLL or MCL, 10 patients were evaluated for efficacy, 17 were too early to assess and one patient
had discontinued prior to first assessment for ibrutinib related diarrhea. The ORR was initially
90% for the 10 evaluable patients but later became 100% (Figure 12). The addition of TG-1101
also appeared to control ibrutinib-related lymphocytosis with a median 79% decrease in absolute
lymphocyte count (ALC) from baseline by Cycle Four (Figure 13). This trial confirms that an anti-
CD20/BTK regimen reduces both nodal volume and BTK-induced lymphocytosis.
Figure 12: Overall Response at First Efficacy Assessment
Source: TG Therapeutics
Figure 13: Overall Response at First Efficacy Assessment
Source: TG Therapeutics
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 18
Overall, both TG-1101 and ibrutinib were well-tolerated. Understandably, infusion reactions were
the most prevalent adverse event with neutropenia appearing in 7% of patients. Notably, serious
AEs, leading to discontinuations or dose reductions, were only seen after ibrutinib exposure.
Despite its small size, Study 104 does show that combining TG-1101 with ibrutinib could provide
faster symptom resolution and a greater response rate. In comparison to earlier Phase 2 trials
with ibrutinib and rituximab, TG-1101 combinations showed a quicker onset of action with a 40%
reduction in lymphocytosis by the end of cycle 1 (rituximab required three months to show the
same reduction).
In 3Q14, TG Therapeutics announced it had reached an agreement with the FDA regarding a
SPA on the design of a Phase 3 trial of TG-1101 in combination with ibrutinib. TG indicates full
details of the study’s design will be disclosed upon initiation of the trial, expected before the end
of 2014. In the meantime, initial information about the randomized trial is that it will enroll
approximately 330 patients, with ORR serving as the primary endpoint. PFS will be used to
substantiate full approval. The company indicates ORR data from the first two thirds of enrollees
may be used to support a BLA for accelerated approval.
The PI3K-inhibitor Mechanism of Action
Incidence and Prevalence
Worldwide, the prevalence of NHL is 16.5 per 100,000 and is increasing at 1.7% annually. NHL
classification is often done through separating cases into aggressive vs. indolent subtypes
followed by cell type. Currently, the most common subtype is DLBCL (Diffuse Large B-cell
Lymphoma) which accounts for 36.9-43.1% of cases, followed by CLL (24.5-33.4%) and FL
(16.8-22.0%). The rarest subtype is MCL which accounts for 4.6 to 6.2% of the population.15
Lymphomas and leukemias originate when a lymphocyte undergoes malignant transformation;
this process can occur at any point during the B- or T-cell differentiation process. The distinction
between lymphoma and leukemias is defined at the differentiation stage; leukemias typically
occur early within the bone marrow while lymphomas proliferate at later stages within the lymph
nodes. The most common type of lymphoma is B-lymphomas and these are further classified by
maturation stage. Currently the cause of lymphoma is not known but many risk factors have been
implicated in its development; for example EBV infection, long-term immunosuppression and
cytogenetic abnormalities have all been extensively studied.
15 Decision Resources, Report on NHL 2013
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 19
Molecular Origins of NHL
NHL pathways are diverse with considerable heterogeneity between patients. Nevertheless like
all malignancies, the various pathways fall within the context of disrupted tumor suppression and
enhanced proto-oncogenic activation.16
One molecular mechanism implicated in FL, DLBCL and
MALT lymphoma is immunoglobulin gene hyper-mutation. Somatic mutations are introduced
within the immunoglobulin surface molecule which alters subsequent downstream effects. This
includes maintenance of tumor clone with anti-apoptotic results. Several common gene
translocations are also implicated in many B-cell lymphoma subtypes. These mutations activate a
group of proto-oncogenes (e.g. BCL2) which cause inappropriate activation of tyrosine kinases
(e.g. BTK) enhancing further cell survival. The characterization of these pathways has been a
critical advancement in developing new treatment paradigms.
When deciding treatment, patients can be divided into indolent and aggressive cohorts.
Aggressive lymphomas tend to develop faster but is more responsive to chemotherapy while
indolent lymphomas are largely incurable. Due to the large heterogeneity of NHL patients,
additional classifications by molecular and genetic variables have been attempted. For example,
DLBCL can be further classified into three subtypes based on gene expression, this includes:
germinal center B-cell like (GCB-DLBCL), activated B-cell like (ABC-DLBCL) and others.17
These
discoveries have had implications on therapy and have sought to further define individualized
treatment pathways for NHL with examples seen in figure 14.
Figure 14: Relapse/Refractory: Current and Future Therapeutic Strategies
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
Role of CD20 in the NHL Disease Process
Although CD20 is not directly implicated in the pathogenesis of lymphoma, it is a surface antigen
that is ubiquitously expressed in both normal and malignant B cells (Figure 15). One advantage of
targeting CD20 is that it has no known natural ligand. Although drugs targeting CD20 may destroy
normal and malignant B-cells, it has often been an acceptable trade-off in lymphoma treatment.
16 Blood. Rossi et al (2005); 119(21): 2854-2862. 17 New England Journal of Medicine. Rosenwald et al(2002); 346: 1937-1947.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 20
Figure 15: CD20 Expression in Normal and Malignant B-cell
Source: J Clin Pathol. Ginald et al(1998)
Role of PI3K in the NHL Disease Process
The signaling network dependent on phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K), AKT, and mTOR impacts many of the dysregulated activities in cancer cells, including cell cycle, survival, metabolism, motility and genomic instability.
18 The lipid second messenger produced by PI3K enzymes seen
in figure 16, phosphatidylinositol-3,4,5-trisphosphate (PIP3), is constitutively elevated in most cancer cells and recruits cytoplasmic proteins (AKT, IRS) to membrane-localized ‘onco’ signalosomes.
19
Figure 16: Overview of the PI3K Pathway
Source: Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2014 Feb;13(2):140-56.
There are multiple isoforms of the PI3K enzyme, the most important in cancer are the 4 class I
enzymes termed PI3Kα, PI3Kβ, PI3Kγ and PI3Kδ (target of idelalisib) (Figure 17). Although
these catalytic isoforms share considerable sequence homology and produce the same lipid
product (PIP3), they differ in their activation mechanism, tissue expression and downstream
therapeutic effects.20
Among the four isoforms PI3Kα is the most commonly mutated within
human cancers and frequently associated with angiogenesis. PI3Kδ controls adaptive immunity
and has been implicated in lymphocyte activation. PI3Kδ also plays a particular importance in
downstream control as Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (target of ibrutinib) acts subsequent to PI3Kδ
activation.21
18 Cancer Cell. Hanahan et al (2011); 19: 693-695. 19 Annu. Rev. Biochem. Vanhaesebroeck, B. et al (2001); 70: 535-602. 20 Nature Reviews. Fruman et al(2014); 13: 140-156. 21 Nature Reviews. Fruman et al(2014); 13: 140-156.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 21
Figure 17: PI3K Isoforms and Functions
Source: Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2014 Feb;13(2):140-56.
Whereas CD20 plays a role in the identification of malignant transformation, PI3K is crucial for the
oncogenic process. Secondly, PI3K’s presence further changes possible CD20 expression
through initial dysregulation and subsequent resistance. Research into molecular mechanisms of
resistance have shown that direct downstream of CD20 binding will eventually result in up-
regulation of anti-apoptotic signaling pathways such as the PI3K/AKT cascade; this is particularly
true for CDC-related necrosis.22
Figure 18 illustrates the various ways cancer cells exhibit
complement resistance. Furthermore, research has shown that fine tuning these various
mechanistic approaches should be used as the treatment paradigm for patients who consistently
relapse.
Figure 18: Rituximab-Induced Mechanism of Resistance
Source: Leuk Lymphoma. 2009 Jun;50(6):873-85.
22 Leukemia & Lymphoma. Stolz et al ( 2009); 50(6): 873-885
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 22
Discovery and Preclinical Investigation of TGR-1202
Given that implication of PI3K in various lymphoma pathways and the success of idelalisib, TG
Therapeutics is developing a PI3K inhibitor for B-cell lymphomas. Unlike idelalisib and IPI-145,
TGR-1202 is designed to minimize hepatotoxicity by eliminating the nitrogen based structural
back bone.23
As these compounds are metabolized by the liver, a nitrogenous backbone can
produce reactive nitrogen species leading to significant liver toxicity.24
In terms of efficacy,
preclinical experiments show a clear in vivo signal (Figure 19 and 20) indicating that TGR-1202
has similar apoptotic potential as idelalisib in CLL and DLBCL cell lines.
Figure 19: Cytotoxicity of TGR-1202 and Idelalisib in DLBCL Cell Lines
Source: ASH Poster, Friedman et al, 2012
Figure 20: TGR-1202 and Idelalisib activity in CLL Lines
Source: ASH Poster, Friedman et al, 2012
23 Deng at al; Presentation 2013 ”Novel PI3K Inhibitor TGR-1202 Demonstrates Cytotoxicity in B- and T-cell Lymphoma Models and
is Synergistic with a Novel Anti-Cd20 monoclonal antibody, Ublituximab, in Models of Lymphoma”. 24 Physiol. Rev. Pacher et al (2007); 87 (1): 315-324.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 23
Successful Clinical Trials of TGR-1202
Table 3: Ongoing Clinical Development Program for TGR-1202
Name
Phase
# of
Patients
Current
Status
Initiation
Date
Next
Expected
Catalyst
Phase 1/ 2: CLL and NHL 1/2 50 Interim Data January 2013 4Q14 (ASH
2014)
Phase 1: NHL (w/ TG-
1101; an additional triple
arm of
TG1101/TGR1202/ibrutinib
in CLL was added in
3Q14)
1 - Interim Data November
2013
4Q14 (ASH
2014; no
data on triple
combo
expected)
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
Monotherapy
TGR-1202 Phase 1 Study: 101
In 1Q13, TG initiated a multi-center Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of
TGR-1202 in patients with relapsed CLL and NHL, and 50 patients have been recruited. The
primary endpoint was to evaluate safety and maximum tolerated dose after 28 days. The overall
response rate (past 1 year) was measured as a secondary endpoint. The dosing schedule
followed a 3+3 dose escalation design with seven dose levels: 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 and
1800 mg QD; 2 expansion cohorts (5a, 6a) were added to evaluate the effect of food on the PK of
1202 at 800 mg and 1200 mg. TGR-1202 was dosed in continuous 28-day cycles to maximum of
15 cycles; dose limiting toxicities was assessed in Cycle 1 prior to escalation. Enrolled patients
were heavily pretreated with 85% have received previous rituximab treatment. Additionally, all
relevant subtypes (CLL, FL, MCL, DLBCL) were included for enrollment. Under company
guidance, we expect updated trial data to be presented at ASH 2014.
In May 2014, TG announced updated early results. Among the patients recruited, 40 were
evaluated for safety and 35 evaluated for efficacy. Histologically, there were 13 CLL, 10 FL, 6 HL,
5 DLBCL, 2 MCL, 2 MZL, 1 HCL and 1 LPL enrollees. A nodal response was seen in 89% of CLL
patients receiving greater than 800 mg with four patients exhibiting PR. There was dose-
dependent relationship where lymph node reduction was correlated to extended dose levels and
duration (Figure 21).
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 24
Figure 21: Overall Response at First Efficacy Assessment
Source: TG Therapeutics
Diarrhea was the most common adverse event with neutropenia appearing in 8% of all patients.
Particularly notable was the lack of liver toxicity, even at doses greater than 800 mg. In
comparison, idelalisib-induced liver toxicity was seen in 13-24% of all treated populations.
To understand the effect of food on TGR-1202 exposure, a PK analysis into the expansion
cohorts was performed, showing an increased Cmax ratio between fed to fast states of 1.7 to 2.9
at 800 mg and 1200 mg, respectively. Notably, GI side effects were also lower in the fed states
with 1 incident of diarrhea among the 14 evaluated patients. Furthermore, since no patient
discontinued from drug related adverse events, the MTD was not reached and TGR-1202 dose
escalation is still ongoing. This data suggests that fed state dosing could increase drug exposure
while maintaining better GI tolerability.
In addition to efficacy data, the company provided results on exploratory studies in health
volunteers seeking to characterize PK and MTD of its micronizing TGR-1202 within the fed-state.
Twenty-four healthy subjects underwent a crossover study with TGR-1202 given in a fasting state
or within 30 min of a high fat meal. The dose groups tested were 200 mg, 400 mg, 800 mg and
until MTD. Results from the study would help determine the appropriate dose for the fed state
micronized TGR-1202. Interim PK results showed that both the fed state and micronized
formulation had significantly higher drug exposure to standard protocol (Cmax ratio 2.73 and
2.24, respectively).
Unmet Needs in Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
Despite the wide variety of branded and generic treatments available, NHL is a heterogeneous
disease with variable a disease course. Figure 22 shows survey data from top ranking
hematologists throughout the US and Europe.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 25
Figure 22: Unmet Needs Within NHL
Source: Decision Resources, 2013
TG-1101 and TGR-1202 are specifically designed to address two primary unmet needs: therapies
for the elderly and therapies for refractory lymphoma. Overcoming drug resistance is a key unmet
need with the potential for significant revenue potential. Similarly, toxicity improvements for high
risk lymphoma patients are needed to maintain adherence into later treatment lines. Clinically
valued endpoints are also variable among the NHL subtypes.
Hematologists tend to prefer PFS for indolent lymphomas while overall survival is still considered
the gold standard for aggressive tumors. However, since early trials are typically unable to report
progression rates, tumor response rates is consistently used, and has been correlated with the
length of PFS and occasionally with OS.25
Given the number of current and upcoming treatments
for NHL, TG Therapeutics’ primary obstacle will be differentiation, in our opinion. Table 4
summarizes the key efficacy and safety parameters identified by hematologists to be key
considerations when deciding on treatment. Early ORR has shown that TG-1101 & TGR-1202 in
combination could be the best in-class treatment for relapse patients.
25 JCO, Cheson BD et al (2012); 30(23): 2820-2822
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 26
Table 4: Comparison of Early Phase Data for Investigational Lymphoma Treatments
TGR-1202
(with TG-1101)
Idelalisib-
based
regimens
(with
rituximab)
Abt199-
based
regimens
(with
rituximab)
Duvelisib TG-1101 (with
ibrutinib)
Ibrutinib (with
rituximab/ofatumumab)
Abt199-based regimens
(with rituximab)
Gazyva (with rituximab)
R/R NHL
Efficacy Combo-ORR 40%
(preliminary data)
Combo-DLBCL
ORR 40%
Combo-NHL
ORR 77%
(CR 19%)
1 year PFS
78-90%
Mono-ORR
48%
MCL 68%
FL 28%
DLBCL 28%
WM 75%
MZL 67%
Mono-ORR 75%
(20% CR Rate)
Combo-MCL ORR
100% (CR33%)
Mono-FL ORR 33%
(CR 17%)
Mono-MZL ORR
100% (CR 67%)
Mono-DLBCL GCB ORR
5.3%
Mono-DLBCL ABC ORR
40% (CR 8%)
Mono-MCL 68% (CR
22%)
Mono-ORR 48%
Mono-MCL 68%
Mono-FL 28%
Mono-DLBCL 28%
Mono- WM 75%
Mono-MZL 67%
Mono-ORR NHL 25%
Mono-ORR FL ORR 58%
(CR25%)
Mono-ORR DLBCL 28%
Mono-ORR MCL 27%
Safety
Low degree of
neutropenia
No LFT increase
Neutropenia
43-52%
LFT increase
13-24%
Grade 3 LFT
increase 38%
Neutropenia 31%
Neutropenia 7% Neutropenia 29% Neutropenia 29%
R/R CLL
Efficacy Mono-ORR 89%
Combo-ORR 80%
Combo-ORR
78-87%
74-88% 1
year PFS
Combo-
ORR 84%
(36% CR)
Mono-ORR
77% (23%
CR)
Mono-ORR 48%
75% 1 year PFS
Combo-ORR 100% Combo-ORR
(ofatumumab) 100%
Combo-ORR (rituximab)
93%
Combo-ORR 84% (36%
CR)
Mono-ORR 77% (23% CR)
Mono-ORR 62%
Safety Neutropenia 5%
No LFT increase
Neutropenia
32-76%
Infections 11-
18%
LFT 5-18%
Neutropenia
7%
Neutropenia 40%
Infection ~ 20%
Neutropenia 7% Neutropenia 29% Neutropenia 7% Neutropenia 58%
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 27
Discovery and Preclinical Programs
TGR-1202
PI3Kδ signaling has been shown to be important for extracellular signaling in multiple myeloma
with several MM lines expressing high levels of the sigma subunit.26
In December 2013, TG
Therapeutics presented preclinical data combining TGR-1202 with carfilzomib for select multiple
myeloma cell lines. TGR-1202 alone did not show significant cell death, however in combination
with carfilzomib showed enhanced apoptosis in all tested cell lines (Figure 23). Investigation into
the mechanism of action showed that TGR-1202 with carfilzomib produced significant phospho-
mTOR suggesting pathway blockade.
Figure 23: Synergistic Potential between TGR-1202 and Carfilzomib
Source: TG Therapeutics, ASH Poster 2013
IRAK4
TG Therapeutics has also licensed Ligand Pharmaceuticals IRAK4 inhibitor research program for
cancer and autoimmune diseases. IRAK4 is a signaling kinase implicated in most patients with
Waldenström’s Macroglobulinemia (ABT199 shows the greatest response rate currently), a rare
malignancy with minimal effective treatment. Outside of cancer applications, IRAK4 has also
shown activity in treatment of autoimmune related disorders. Currently there are no IRAK4
inhibitors in clinical development possibly presenting a first-in-class opportunity.
The IRAK4 is a key signaling component of the TLR family (IL-1R, IL1B, Toll-like receptors) that
are important for innate immunity and inflammation.27
Figure 24 demonstrates the IRAK4
signaling cascade.
26 ASH 2013 Poster; Torre et al (2013). ”Combined Carfilzomib and Selective PI3K Inhibition (TGR-1202) Results in Enhanced
Myeloma Cell Apoptosis” 27 Trends Immunol . Suzuki et al (2002); 23: 503-506
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 28
Figure 24: IRAK4 Mechanism of Action
Source: Suzuki et al, 2002
Preclinical data for lead compound LG0224912 have shown that collagen-induced arthritis
severity is reduced by IL1B receptor blockade.28
The target has further been validated with the
approval of Kineret and Arcalyst for autoimmune disorders.
The IRAK4 inhibitor developed by Ligand has shown favorable in vitro characteristics including
potent binding of ATP binding pocket, >100 fold selectivity for IRAK4-dependent and independent
pathways and good suppression activity of IL1B signaling in mice models.29
Figure 25
demonstrates activity in an animal model of collagen induced arthritis.
Figure 25: Mouse Model of IRAK4 inhibition
Source: Ligand Presentation
28 Arthritis Rheum, Ma et al (1998); 41(10) 29 Ligand Investor Presentation, 2012
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 29
Competitive Landscape
TG-1101 and Monoclonal Antibodies
Many companies have obtained FDA approvals for treatment for NHL. While most companies
have focused on deriving variations of an anti-CD20 antibody (ofatumumab), the recent approvals
for idelalisib and ibrutinib with rituximab heralds a new era of “inside-outside” combination
treatments.
Roche’s (RHHBY; not rated) GA-101 is similar to TG Therapeutics TG-1101 in that both
treatments are targeting the same patient demographics with a similar mechanism of action. As
opposed to using a chimeric Type I antibody, Roche’s approach involves synthesizing a
glycoengineered Type II monoclonal antibody aimed at inducing higher levels of ADCC. In 2013,
Roche presented the final results of its successful Phase 3 clinical trial testing GA-101 as first line
treatment for CLL. The treatment demonstrated an ORR of 75.5% in patients with CLL with
22.2% achieving CR. The median PFS was double that of chlorambucil (23 months versus 10.9
months). GA-101, like all monoclonal antibodies, causes IRRs with close to 69% of all patients
requiring active management. Neutropenia is also a frequent AE appearing in 77% of patients. A
final stage comparing GA-101 with rituximab was presented at ASH 2013 that showed GA-101
achieving an ORR of 78% compared to rituximab’s 65%. Subsequent Phase 3 trials in relapse
CLL patients are ongoing.
Similar to GA-101, Immunomedics’ (IMMU; not rated) veltuzumab is humanized monoclonal anti-
CD20 monoclonal antibody targeting NHL. Clinical advantages of veltuzumab compared to
rituximab include greater efficacy (within animal models) and shorter infusion times. Specifically,
veltuzumab has shown greater CDC activity than rituximab but comparable ADCC activity.30
Currently, veltuzumab is in Phase 2 development in combination with Y-90 epratuzumab in
patients with aggressive relapsed lymphomas. Previous animal studies evaluating the
combination showed median survival improved from 42 days to 63 days in those receiving the
combination versus individual components.
Ofatumumab is an approved fully human IgG Type I anti-CD20 mAb that binds to specific epitope
of the CD20 antigen. Preclinical studies have shown that ofatumumab has higher CDC activity
than rituximab, even in B cells that express low CD20 levels. Currently ofatumumab is approved
for third line CLL patients’ refractory to fludarabine and alemtuzumab. Although ofatumumab has
a more favorable safety profile, treated patients only had a median PFS of 5.5 months.
Consequently, ofatumumab has not received significant uptake within relapsed CLL patients.
Alemtuzumab is currently approved for CLL patients who are refractory to fludarabine, carry TP53
mutations and patients with non-bulky disease.31
alemtuzumab is the first CD52 monoclonal
antibody launched and had a median overall survival of 16 months with a PFS of 9.5 months.
Notably, alemtuzumab had little effect on bulky disease with only 5% achieving nodular PR. Due
to its significant tolerability issues, Sanofi/Genzyme (SNY; not rated) withdrew alemtuzumab from
the US and EU markets in August 2012.
30 American Society of Clinical Oncology. Goldenberg et al (2008). Abstract 3043. 31 Blood. Keating et al (2002); 99 (10): 3554-3561
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 30
In our opinion, one of the most impactful events may be the entrance of a rituximab biosimilar.
Given rituximab’s wide-label across all treatments lines and indications, a rituximab biosimilar
could see significant usage particularly in treatment-naïve patients. In the EU, Sandoz is in late
stage development of a biosimilar (GP-2013), currently in a Phase 3 trial against rituximab in
previously untreated FL patients. Similarly, Boehringer Ingelheim is testing its BI-69550 in a
Phase 3 trial for Rheumatoid Arthritis. Assuming a similar PK/PD profile to rituximab, an approval
in RA could lead to an approval in all labeled indications.32
TGR-1202 and PI3K/AKT inhibitors
Idelalisib is an asset acquired in 2011 by Gilead (GILD; not rated) when they acquired Calistoga
Pharmaceuticals for $375 MM. At the time, idelalisib (CAL-101) was the first-in-class specific
inhibitor of PI3Kδ and under Phase 2 development for relapsed NHL and CLL. Early studies of
idelalisib in combination with bendamustine showed an ORR of 86.7%, while Phase 3
combination studies with rituximab showed an impressive overall survival hazard ratio of 0.28 in
comparison to rituximab alone.33
Interviewed experts believe that idelalisib and ibrutinib will be
the main stay treatments moving forward.34
IPI-145 is PI3K-δ/γ inhibitor under co-development by Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI; not rated)
and AbbVie (ABBV; not rated). Under the terms of the agreement, Infinity and AbbVie will co-
develop and commercialize IPI-145 in the US, while AbbVie will commercialize IPI-145 worldwide,
paying Infinity a tiered, double-digit sales royalty. It is believed that IPI-145 would have greater
disease control due to overlapping downstream effects between PI3K-δ/γ. Early phase data has
shown an 89% nodal response rate with an impressive 50% partial response in patients with 17p,
p53 mutations.35
IPI-145 is currently in Phase 3 development for CLL and NHL.
ABT-199 is an oral, second-generation BH3-mimetic BCl-2 inhibitor being developed by Roche
and AbbVie. Although not a direct mechanism of action competitor to TGR-1202, it has expedited
release timelines, patient demographics and could pose the greatest threat to idelalisib and
ibrutinib. The first Phase 1 trial in select lymphoma patients showed a 95% reduction in
lymphocytosis within 24 hours. ABT-199 has also been tested in combination with rituximab in
relapsed/refractory CLL patients; early efficacy data have been impressive with ORR of 78%. The
most common adverse events were neutropenia (43%), nausea (38%) and diarrhea (30%).36
Though many hematologists are excited by the possibility of a BCl2/PI3K combination regimen,
tolerability could emerge to be a significant concern as both products can induce significant
neutropenia.
Additionally, several companies are pursuing novel treatment approaches for lymphoma including
treatments which target the mTOR pathway, CD37, and HDAC. The competitive landscape is
summarized in figure 26.
32 FDA Guidance for Industry Biosimilars (2012): Questions and Answers Regarding Implementation of the Biologics Price
Competition and Innovation Act of 2009. 33 N Engl J Med, Furman et al (2014); 370 (997-1007) 34 Decision Resources 2013: Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma 35 ASH 2013. Flinn et al. 36 Targeted Oncology (2014): BCL-2 Inhibitor Combo May Offer Remissions in CLL.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 31
Figure 26: Development Stages of Investigational Lymphoma Therapies
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
Route of Administration: Undervalued Criteria in a Highly Competitive Lymphoma Market
In our opinion, the success of a lymphoma drug depends on three criteria:
1. Effective in rituximab/PI3K/BTK-refractive populations: With increased cost pressures,
entrance of a biosimilar and the promising efficacy of new treatments, we believe emerging
biologic treatments will be competing for relapse patients who have had a minimum of two or
three prior therapy lines.
2. Tolerable safety profile: Despite the approval new treatments, there is still a key unmet need
for drugs that possess low hematological and chemical side effects. Typically, NHL patients
are elderly, relapse frequently, and therefore are unable to tolerate drug-related toxicities.
Emerging therapies that significantly reduce hematological toxicity could have considerable
commercial advantage.
3. Route of administration: Route of administration has garnered increased attention in
lymphoma drug development as the many emerging therapies have addressed the other two
considerations. The most accepted means of systemic delivery of rituximab is through
intravenous infusion which runs the risk of triggering an immune reaction. Notably, Roche is
developing a subcutaneous delivery method for rituximab; this in combination with an oral
kinase inhibitor could be a driving factor in influencing sales.
0
1
2
3
4
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PHASE 3
PHASE 2
PHASE 1
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 32
Partnerships
Currently, TG has ongoing partnerships for all products within their product portfolio:
TG entered into an exclusive license agreement with LFB Biotechnologies relating to the
development of TG-1101. Under the license agreement, TG acquired the exclusive
worldwide rights (excluding France and Belgium) for the development and
commercialization of TG-1101. To date, they have made no payments to LFB Group.
However LFB Group is eligible to receive payments of up to an aggregate of
approximately $31.0 MM upon successful achievement of certain clinical development,
regulatory and sales milestones, in addition to royalty payments on net sales of TG-1101
at a royalty rate that escalates from mid-single digits to high-single digits. The license will
terminate on a country by country basis upon the expiration of the last licensed patent
right or 15 years after the first commercial sale.
TG entered into an exclusive (within the territory) sublicense agreement with Ildong
(KRX:000230; not rated) relating to the development and commercialization of TG-1101
in South Korea and Southeast Asia. Under the terms of the sublicense agreement,
Ildong has been granted a royalty bearing, exclusive right, including the right to grant
sublicenses, to develop and commercialize TG-1101 in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, and Myanmar. To date, TG has
received $2 MM in the form of an upfront payment from Ildong, and are eligible to receive
sales based milestone payments up to an aggregate of $5 MM and royalty payments on
net sales of TG-1101 at a royalty rate that escalates from mid-teens to high-teens upon
approval in South Korea and/or Southeast Asia.
On September 22, 2014, TG exercised its option to license the global rights to TGR-
1202. Under the terms of the agreement, in exchange for the global license, Rhizen will
receive a one-time, upfront cash payment of $4.0 MM and approximately 370,000 shares
of TG Therapeutics' common stock. By exercising the option, TG Therapeutics receives
exclusive worldwide rights (excluding India) for the development and commercialization
of TGR-1202 for all indications. Rhizen will be eligible to receive regulatory filing,
approval and sales based milestones in the aggregate of approximately $240 million, and
tiered royalties based on net sales.
In 2014, TG entered into an exclusive global agreement with Ligand Pharmaceuticals
(LGND; not rated) to develop and commercialize Ligand’s IRAK4 research program.
Under the terms of the agreement, Ligand will receive an up-front licensing fee of
125,000 unregistered shares of TG Therapeutics' common stock. In addition, TG will
make development and sales-based milestone payments and will pay a tiered, mid-to-
high single digit royalty on net sales.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 33
Financials
Revenues
Based on prevalence data from SEER and GLOBOCAN, we estimate there are currently about 20,000 R/R CLL
patients in the US and about 10,000 CLL patients in the EU that may constitute a potential patient pool for TG-
1101/ibrutinib combination therapy. We estimate that a larger pool of patients with indolent NHL may be addressable
with TGR-1202 in combination with an anti-CD20 antibody—approximately 110,000 in the US and 55,000 in the EU.
Monoclonal antibody treatments such as rituximab are currently priced at approximately $2,500 per month, with annual
treatment costs exceeding $30,000. Newer therapies are priced even higher with ibrutinib reaching nearly $8,000 per
month. We believe the competitive/regulatory environment for NHL and oncology may not warrant significant premium
pricing over currently available therapies, and we assume annual price points at $45,000 (US) and $25,000 (EU) for
TG-1101 (in combination with ibrutinib) and $85,000 (US) and $50,000 (EU) for TGR-1202/anti-CD20 antibody
combination therapy.
We estimate the 2023 US and EU combined market size for TGR-1202 in indolent NHL is approximately $13 billion.
For TG-1101/ibrutinib in CLL, we estimate the 2023 US and EU combined market size is approximately $1.2 billion.
Assuming a 20-30% peak market penetration amongst relapse patients, we estimate TG-1101 (in combination with
ibrutinib) has the potential to generate combined peak US and EU annual sales of $250 MM in CLL patients. Assuming
similar market penetration amongst relapse indolent NHL patients, we estimate TGR-1202 (in combination with an
anti-CD20 antibody) has the potential to generate peak annual sales $3.8 billion in combined US and EU markets. We
believe a US commercial launch for TG-1101/ibrutinib could occur in 2017 with an EU launch following in 2018. We
anticipate TGR-1202 could launch in the US in late 2020, with an EU commercial launch potentially following in late
2021. Altogether, we project risk (50%) adjusted revenues of $8.6 MM in 2017, $37.5 MM in 2018, $49.1 MM in 2019,
$122 MM in 2020, $437.6 MM in 2021, $717.8 MM in 2022, and $1.01 billion in 2023.
By way of comparison, rituximab was approved for CLL in 1997. Within one year of marketing for CLL, sales had
increased to greater than $200 MM. With in 4 years, sales had surpassed $750 MM. We view our probability adjusted
sales ramp to be much shallower than rituximab, given the price pressures associated with a rituximab biosimilar and
the possibility of combination branded therapies.
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
TG1101 w/Ibrutinib Markets 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(≥2nd line) US CLL/SLL patients ('000) 18.99 19.15 19.31 19.47 19.63 19.79 19.95 20.11 20.27 20.47
US Cost of treatment ($'s) 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
US Market Size ($ '000) 854,400 861,611 868,819 876,017 883,202 890,374 897,571 904,769 911,967 920,965
% US Market penetration 1% 5% 9% 12% 18% 22% 22%
(≥2nd line) EU CLL/SLL patients ('000) 9.27 9.28 9.29 9.29 9.30 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
EU Cost of treatment ($'s) 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000
EU Market Size ($ '000) 231,644 231,962 232,160 232,359 232,558 232,756 232,756 232,756 232,756 232,756
% EU Market penetration 2% 8% 9% 13% 19% 21%
Risk & Royalty Adjusted Sales-US 8,550 35,150 40,090 58,140 84,170 95,000 95,000
Risk & Royalty Adjusted Sales-EU 2,138 8,788 10,023 14,535 21,043 23,750
TG1101 Total Sales in CLL/SLL ($'000) 8,550 37,288 48,878 68,163 98,705 116,043 118,750
TGR1202 + anti-CD20 Markets 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(≥2nd line) US iNHL patients ('000) 111.21 112.15 113.08 114.02 114.96 115.89 116.83 117.76 118.70 119.87
US Cost of treatment ($'s) 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000
Market Size ($ '000) 9,452,643 9,532,429 9,612,175 9,691,807 9,771,299 9,850,641 9,930,273 10,009,906 10,089,538 10,189,094
% Market penetration 1% 7% 11% 16%
(≥2nd line) EU iNHL patients ('000) 54.27 54.35 54.39 54.44 54.48 54.53 54.53 54.53 54.53 54.53
EU Cost of treatment ($'s) 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
EU Market Size ($ '000) 2,713,546 2,717,268 2,719,594 2,721,920 2,724,246 2,726,571 2,726,571 2,726,571 2,726,571 2,726,571
% EU Market penetration 1% 7% 11%
Risk & Royalty Adjusted Sales-US 54,000 324,000 513,000 753,300
Risk & Royalty Adjusted Sales-EU 14,760 88,560 140,220
TGR-1202 + TG1101 Total Sales in iNHL ($'000) 54,000 338,760 601,560 893,520
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 34
Operating Expenses
Based on the R&D expenses reported for 2013 and 2014, we are introducing the R&D estimates of $25.8 MM for
2014, increasing to $202 MM for 2023. The R&D assumptions from 2014-2023 take into account continued
expenditure for TG-1101 Phase 2 and 3 trials in CLL, and clinical development of TGR-1202 in monotherapy and
combination trials for NHL.
We are introducing the SG&A estimates of $18.8 MM for 2014, increasing to $233 MM in 2023. These estimates
reflect the ramp in the growth of a salesforce in connection with possible approval of TG-1101 and TGR-1202 in
multiple indications in 2017 and 2020, respectively.
Net Income and EPS
Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2013 was $20.5 MM, or ($0.81) per share. Going forward, we are
introducing net income (loss) estimates of ($44.4) MM or ($1.33) per share in 2014, increasing to $275 MM or $4.63
per share for in 2023, and potentially achieving profitability in 2021.
Cash
TG Therapeutics has a cash position of approximately $43 MM (pro forma). Based on our projections and with
consideration of ongoing Phase 1 and 2 trial costs, as well as the possibility to initiate a Phase 3 in combination with
ibrutinib in R/R CLL patients by 4Q14, we expect a burn rate of approximately $9 MM per quarter, and we believe the
current cash position is sufficient to fund operations until 2H15. We have modeled three capital raises in to our
estimates. We expect the company to raise approximately $40 MM in 4Q14, $75 MM in 2H16 and an additional $50
MM in 2H18 in order to sustain operations until the company potentially achieves profitability in 2021.
Valuation
We value TG Therapeutics using a discounted earnings per share and revenue multiple analysis. Applying a 8x
multiple to our probability adjusted 2023 revenues of approximately $1.01 billion and discounting additionally by 30%
over 8.0 periods, we obtain a $16.79 target price. Applying a 28x multiple to our probability adjusted 2023 earnings
per share of approximately $4.63 and discounting additionally by 30% over 8.0 periods, we obtain a price target of
$15.88. Averaging the results from these two methods and adding the projected cash per share in 12 months, we
obtain a 12-month price target of $17.25, which we round to $17.
In our opinion, the stage of development can impact the appropriate discount rate used in the discount model, because
it can be used as a proxy for risk. The following table shows the range of discount rates that would normally be used
according to the stage of development (Figure 27). Given that TG’s pipeline has at least one program about to enter a
Phase 3 trial, we elect to use a 30% discount rate in our valuation.
Figure 27: Discount Rates Associated With Clinical Development Stages
Source: Nat Biotechnol. 2004 Aug;22(8):1049-51.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 35
Source: H.C. Wainwright Research
Discount Rate
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
24 $51.81 $36.30 $25.83 $18.63 $13.61 $10.07 $7.53 $5.68 Estimated 2023 EPS 4.63$
26 $56.13 $39.33 $27.98 $20.18 $14.75 $10.91 $8.15 $6.16 Year 2023
28 $60.44 $42.36 $30.13 $21.74 $15.88 $11.74 $8.78 $6.63 Periods (years) 8.0
30 $64.76 $45.38 $32.29 $23.29 $17.02 $12.58 $9.41 $7.10 Price target $15.88
35 $75.55 $52.94 $37.67 $27.17 $19.85 $14.68 $10.97 $8.29
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
4.0 $31.96 $22.39 $15.93 $11.49 $8.40 $6.21 $4.64 $3.51 Estimated 2023 Revenues (000s) 1,012,471$
6.0 $47.93 $33.59 $23.90 $17.24 $12.60 $9.31 $6.96 $5.26 Year 2023
8.0 $63.91 $44.78 $31.86 $22.98 $16.79 $12.42 $9.28 $7.01 Periods (years) 8.0
10.0 $79.89 $55.98 $39.83 $28.73 $20.99 $15.52 $11.60 $8.76 Shares outstanding (000s): 59,123
12.0 $95.87 $67.18 $47.79 $34.48 $25.19 $18.63 $13.92 $10.52 Price target $16.79
14.0 $111.84 $78.37 $55.76 $40.22 $29.39 $21.73 $16.25 $12.27
16.0 $127.82 $89.57 $63.72 $45.97 $33.59 $24.84 $18.57 $14.02 Average Price Target Combining Both Methods $16.34
18.0 $143.80 $100.77 $71.69 $51.72 $37.79 $27.94 $20.89 $15.77
20.0 $159.78 $111.96 $79.65 $57.46 $41.99 $31.04 $23.21 $17.53 Average Price Target Including Cash Per Share $17.25
Discounted Earnings Analysis
P/E
Mu
ltip
le
Discounted Revenue Analysis
Re
ve
nu
e M
ult
iple
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 36
Management Team
Michael S. Weiss, Executive Chairman, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer
Michael S. Weiss has served as the company’s Executive Chairman, and interim President and CEO since December
2011. Mr. Weiss is currently a director of the company. Mr. Weiss is a co-founder of, and has been a managing partner
and principal of Opus Point Partners since 2008. Mr. Weiss earned his J.D. from Columbia Law School and his B.S. in
Finance from The University of Albany. He began his professional career as a lawyer with Cravath, Swaine & Moore.
In 1999, Mr. Weiss founded Access Oncology which was later acquired by Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX; Buy) in
2004. Following the merger, Mr. Weiss remained as CEO of Keryx and grew the company grew the company to close
to a $1 billion market capitalization company at its peak. While at Keryx, he raised over $150 MM in equity capital
through public and private offerings, executed a $100 MM+ strategic alliance, negotiated multiple Special Protocol
Assessments (SPA) agreements with the FDA and managed multiple large clinical trials.
Sean A. Power, Chief Financial Officer
Sean A. Power, CPA has served as the company's Chief Financial Officer since December 2011 and currently serves
as the CFO of Opus Point Partners. Mr. Power joined the company from Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., where he
served as Corporate Controller from 2006 to 2011. During his tenure there, Mr. Power was involved in all capital
raising and licensing transactions. He was also responsible for leading Keryx's compliance with Securities and
Exchange Commission rules and regulations. Prior to joining Keryx, he was with KPMG, LLP, independent certified
public accountants, where he served as a senior associate. Mr. Power received a BBA in accounting from Siena
College and is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.
Robert Niecestro, PhD., Executive Vice President, Clinical and Regulatory
Robert Niecestro, PhD. has served as the company's Executive Vice President, Clinical and Regulatory since
December 2011. Dr. Niecestro is an experienced professional in the pharmaceutical industry with approximately 26
years of experience in regulatory affairs, and project management. Dr. Niecestro was the Vice President of Clinical and
Regulatory Affairs for Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., where among other things he successfully negotiated six SPA
agreements with the FDA. He has previously held numerous senior management positions including serving as Vice
President of Clinical Development for Andrx Laboratories, Senior Director, Clinical Development and Therapeutic Head
for Gastrointestinal, Oncology and Stroke at Eisai Inc. and as Director, Clinical Operations and NDA Planning for
Organon Inc. While at Andrx, Dr. Niecestro was part of the team that developed the following approved drugs:
extended-release metformin, extended-release lovastatin and valproic acid. At Eisai Dr. Niecestro played a pivotal role
in the development and commercialization of Aciphex (rabeprazole sodium), the post-NDA program for Aricept
(donepezil sodium), and started both the oncology and neurology franchises in the United States; and while at
Organon, he was part of the team that developed and commercialized the following drugs: Zemuron (rocuronium
bromide), Orgaran (danaparoid sodium), Humegon (FSH/LH), Follistim (recombinant FSH beta), and one birth control
pill (Mircette). Dr. Niecestro has been involved in the filing of over 45 Investigational New Drug (IND) applications, has
over 60 peer-reviewed publications and holds three patents. Dr. Niecestro completed his graduate and post-graduate
work at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 37
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) – Historical Income Statement and Financial Projections
Source: Company Reports and H.C. Wainwright Research
Figures in $ thousands except per share data
FY13 A 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14E 4Q14E FY14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E
Sales revenues:
TG1101 Sales - US 8,550 35,150 40,090 58,140 84,170 95,000 95,000
TG1101 Sales - EU 2,138 8,788 10,023 14,535 21,043 23,750
TGR1202 + anti-CD20 combo Sales - US 54,000 324,000 513,000 753,300
TGR1202 + anti-CD20 combo Sales - EU 14,760 88,560 140,220
Total Product sales 8,550 37,288 48,878 122,163 437,465 717,603 1,012,270
Other revenues:
License and service revenue 152 38 38 38 39 153 39 40 40 40 158 163 168 173 178 184 189 195 201
Total revenues 152 38 38 38 39 153 39 40 40 40 158 163 8,718 37,460 49,056 122,346 437,654 717,797 1,012,471
Expenses:
Cost of goods 2,565 11,186 14,663 36,649 109,366 179,401 253,068
Research & development 16,460 4,410 6,848 6,916 7,608 25,783 7,684 7,761 7,839 7,917 31,201 32,468 36,797 39,253 42,489 47,039 71,619 129,693 202,494
Sales, general & administrative 6,658 3,233 5,145 5,196 5,248 18,823 5,301 5,354 5,407 5,462 21,524 22,398 27,642 29,908 31,122 38,483 67,473 143,559 232,868
Total expenses 23,118 7,643 11,993 12,113 12,857 44,605 12,985 13,115 13,246 13,379 52,725 54,866 64,439 80,347 88,274 122,171 248,458 452,653 688,430
Net (loss) income from operations (22,966) (7,605) (11,955) (12,075) (12,818) (44,452) (12,946) (13,075) (13,207) (13,339) (52,567) (54,703) (55,721) (42,887) (39,218) 175 189,196 265,144 324,041
Other (income) expense
Loss before income Taxes (20,478) (7,548) (11,986) (12,075) (12,818) (44,426) (12,946) (13,075) (13,207) (13,339) (52,567) (54,703) (55,721) (42,887) (39,218) 175 189,196 265,144 324,041
Income tax expense 48,606
Comprehensive net (loss) income attributable to common stockholders (20,478) (7,548) (11,986) (12,075) (12,818) (44,426) (12,946) (13,075) (13,207) (13,339) (52,567) (54,703) (55,721) (42,887) (39,218) 175 189,196 265,144 275,435
Earnings per share:
Basic (0.81) (0.25) (0.36) (0.36) (0.34) (1.33) (0.34) (0.35) (0.35) (0.35) (1.39) (1.37) (1.32) (0.99) (0.88) 0.00 4.19 5.83 6.00
Diluted (0.81) (0.25) (0.36) (0.36) (0.34) (1.33) (0.34) (0.35) (0.35) (0.35) (1.39) (1.37) (1.32) (0.99) (0.88) 0.00 3.22 4.48 4.63
Average shares outstanding
Basic 25,414 30,091 32,985 33,085 37,630 33,448 37,730 37,830 37,930 38,030 37,880 39,984 42,089 43,203 44,317 44,717 45,117 45,517 45,917
Diluted 25,414 30,091 32,985 33,085 37,630 33,448 37,730 37,830 37,930 38,030 37,880 39,984 42,089 43,203 44,317 58,323 58,723 59,123 59,523
H.C. Wainwright & Company Ren Benjamin, Ph.D.
212-356-0542
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 38
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) – Balance Sheet
Source: Company Reports and H.C. Wainwright Research
Figures in $ thousands except per share data 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents 50,183 40,485 49,596 37,078
Short-term investment securities 3,902 7,960
Interest Recievable 27 11 74
Prepaids and other current assets 312 1,742 2,419 3,977
Other current asset 118 48 360 198
Total current assets 50,613 42,302 56,288 49,287
In process research and development 2,798
Long-term investment securities 4,919 1,002 6,110
Goodwill 799 799 799 799
Equipment and furnishings, net 4 6 8 7
Other assets 85 85 76 98
Total Assets 54,299 48,111 58,173 56,301
LIABILITIES
Notes payable 678 678 159
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 4,325 4,765 1,639 1,899
Accrued compensation 350 533 197 396
Current portion of deferred revenue 152 152 152 152
Interest Payable 173 190
Total Current Liabilities 5,678 6,318 1,988 2,606
Deferred revenue, net of current portion 1,714 1,676 1,638 1,600
Notes payable, less current portion, at fair value 2,269 65 116
Total Liabilities 9,661 8,059 3,742 4,206
Commitments and Contingencies
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value per share (10,000,000 shares authorized, 0 issues and
outstanding as of June 30,2014)
Common stock, $0.001 par value per share (150,000,000 and 500,000,000 shares
authorized, 38,161,964 and 34,336,235 shares issued, 38,120,655 and 34,294,926 shares
outstanding at June 30, 2014 and December 13, 2013, respectively)
33 34 38 38
Contingently issuable stock
Additional paid-in capital 78,429 79,659 101,580 111,299
Treasury Stock, at cost, 41,309 shares at March 31, 2014 and December 21, 2013 (85) (234) (234) (234)
Accumulated deficit (33,740) (39,404) (46,951) (58,927)
Total equity 44,638 40,054 54,431 52,096
Total Liabilities and equity 54,299 48,113 58,173 56,302
H.C. Wainwright & Company Ren Benjamin, Ph.D.
212-356-0542
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 39
Important Disclaimers
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating boththe potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any givenequity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimatethe potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon.Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility.
RETURN ASSESSMENT
Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all thecommon stock of companies within the same sector.Market Perform (Neutral): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive indexcomprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector.Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised ofall the common stock of companies within the same sector.
Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placementof securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a companyor one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. October 27, 2014
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH 40
Distribution of Ratings TableIB Service/Past 12 Months
Ratings Count Percent Count PercentBuy 88 92.63% 38 43.18%Neutral 6 6.32% 0 0.00%Sell 0 0.00% 0 0.00%Under Review 1 1.05% 0 0.00%Total 95 100% 38 40.00%
H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.
I, Reni Benjamin, Ph.D. , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views aboutany and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members ofmy household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.
None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of TG Therapeutics,Inc. and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).As of September 30, 2014 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securitiesof TG Therapeutics, Inc. and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. .Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest in TG Therapeutics, Inc. and KeryxBiopharmaceuticals, Inc. of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this researchreport.
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon anyspecific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitabilityof the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.
The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. for investment banking services withintwelve months before, and may seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment bankingservices within three months following publication of the research report.
The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from TG Therapeutics, Inc. for investment banking services within twelvemonths before, but may seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services withinthree months following publication of the research report.
The Firm does not make a market in TG Therapeutics, Inc. and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. as of the date of this researchreport.
The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as beingaccurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or securitydiscussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date ofthis report and are subject to change without notice.
The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investmentobjectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informationalpurposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdictionwhere such would be prohibited. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission ofH.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC. Additional information available upon request.
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