rare earths mine costs - june 2013 - greenfields research / curtin university / university of...

© Greenfields Research

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RESOURCE COST AND CAPITAL

602

RARE EARTH MINE COSTS

John P. Sykes

Director, Greenfields Research

Provisional PhD Candidate,

Centre for Exploration Targeting & Curtin Graduate School of Business

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]





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Rare Earth Mine Costs: Contents

1 What do we know about rare earth mine costs?

2 Back to Principles: How are costs calculated for mining?

3 What costs are there in mining and processing?

4 Differing costs for mining and processing types?

5 The most important cost sensitivities in mining?

6 What about capital costs?

7 Calculating mining costs for rare earth projects

8 Using costs curves as an analytical tool


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602 Resource Cost & Capital: Rare Earth Mine Costs

What do we know about rare earth

mine costs? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Very little cost work in rare earths

Source: Molycorp


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Source: Frontier Rare Earths


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Source: Quest Rare Minerals


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Source: Hudson Resources


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Very little cost work in rare earths Source: Hudson

Resources


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Source: Lynas


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Source: Greenland

Minerals & Energy


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Source: Greenland Minerals & Energy


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Back to Principles: How are costs

calculated for mining? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Mine costs 101

Cost of mining = Cost of moving rock


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How much rock is moved?

Ore throughput x REO grade x recovery

= REO production

© Greenfields Research Ltd


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Calculating the cost per tonne REO

(Ore throughput x cost per tonne of ore)

REO production

= Cost per tonne REO



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Cost examples in rare earths Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake/Nechalacho

Pre-Feasibility Study (June 2010)

Consultancy: Scott Wilson

Deposit Mineralogy: Bastnaesite, Monazite

Deposit Geology: Alkaline felsics & skarn

Deposit Resource: 175.93 Mt @ 1.43% TREO

Proposed Mine Type: Underground

Annual Ore Throughput: 720 Kt of ore

Annual REO Production: 10,000 tonnes

Proposed Mine Life: 18 years

Operating Cost (ore): US$ 240 / tonne ore

Operating Cost (REO): US$ 17,280 / tonne REO

Start-up Capital Cost: US$ 810 million

Rare Element Resources – Bear Lodge

Preliminary Economic Assessment (Sept 2010)

Consultancy: John T. Boyd Company

Deposit Mineralogy: Bastnaesite & Ancylite

Deposit Geology: Carbonatite


Proposed Mine Type: Open pit







($240 x 720,000 t = $172,800,000) / 10,000 t = $17,280

($245 x 360,000 t = $88,200,000) / 14,000 t = $8,480

Sources: Avalon Rare Metals, Rare Element Resources


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What costs are there in mining and

processing? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Components of mine costs

Cash costs

Mining

Processing

Marketing

Freight

Price discounts

Royalties?

Sustaining costs?

Corporate cost

Administration

Mine Closure

Exploration

Depreciation?

Full cost

Charges on capital



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Inputs to mine costs

Fuel

Labour Grinding

media (steel)

Electricity

Explosives

Reagents (chemicals)

Images: Chiakto/Shutterstock, Technocon Engineers

(grinding media), Interfroth (flotation)


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Differing costs for mining and

processing types? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Cost sensitivity by operation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Placer Open Pit Underground Processing

Fuel Labour Power Other

Vulnerable to

fuel costs

Vulnerable to

labour costs

Vulnerable to

power costs

Data: Greenfields Research (placers); Infomine (hard rock)


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Going underground...

y = 290.71x + 934.25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0Min

ing

+ M

illin

g C

ost

(US

$/t

)

Stripping Ratio

Indicative depth of discoveries,

1980s, 1990s & 2000s

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Min

ing

+ M

illin

g C

ost

(US

$/t

)

Effect of

stripping

ratio on

operating

costs

Different underground operating

costs versus open pit mining Charts: Bahr (2008), Infomine


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Alluvial to hard rock + underground

2010 est.

Hard rock (Bayan Obo)

Alluvial (Ionic Clays)

Alluvial (Placers - India & Brazil)

JORC/NI 43-101 Resources Prod. Est.

Hard rock (Open Pit)

Hard Rock (Underground)

Alluvial

Data: USGS (2011), Greenfields Research Ltd


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Mine costs are rising

60

80

100

120

140

160Open Pit Underground Processing

Source: Infomine


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The most important cost

sensitivities in mining? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Grade is King!

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

1.4% 1.2% 1.0%

Mining + Milling Cost (US$/t)

Milling

Mining

Global average copper mine head grade, 1978-2018

y = 60.824x-0.701

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Mining + Milling Cost (US$/t) Increase in mining + milling

costs related to grade decline

for a hypothetical open pit

copper mine with a stripping

ratio of 2:1, processing

recovery of 95% and producing

100,000 tonnes of copper per

year

Charts: Bahr (2008), Infomine


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Lower future grades, higher costs

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0

TR

EO

Gra

de (

%)

Ore (Mt)

Major early stage

light rare earth

projects

Major late

stage light rare

earth projects

Heavy rare

earth projects

Early stage

light rare earth

projects Data: Company websites


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By-products may contribute too List of by-products associated with rare earth

mine projects:

• Beryllium oxide (no trade

price)

• Cobalt

• Copper

• Iron ore (magnetite)

• Gallium oxide

• Hafnium oxide (no trade price)

• Lead

• Lithium carbonate or oxide (no

trade price)

• Manganese oxide

• Molybdenum oxide

• Niobium Oxide

• Nickel

• Phosphate

• Tantalum oxide

• Titanium oxide (rutile &

ilmenite)

• Thorium oxide

• Uranium oxide

• Vanadium oxide

• Zinc

• Zirconium oxide (zircon)



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…but complicate analysis

Rare earths as a by-

product

Very few uneconomic

operations

More uneconomic

operations

More high cost

operations



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Mine cost inputs: USA vs. China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

GTZ International Fuel Price Survey 2009: Retail diesel (US ¢/l)

USA China US CPI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

World Bank Gross National Income per capita, PPP (US$)

USA China

Data: GTZ (2009), World Bank


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More expensive future supply?

Thor Lake Kvanefjeld

Hoidas Lake

Bokan

Mountain

Zeus

Strange Lake

Sarfartoq

Mountain Pass

Bear Lodge

Wigu Hill

Kangankund

e

Steenskampkraal

Bayan Obo

Chavara

Guaju

Mt Weld

Cummins Range Nolans Bore

Dubbo

Eco Ridge

Eldor

Hastings

Kutessay II

Norra Karr

Zandkopsdrift

Non-REE mining country

REE mining country

REE mine

REE mine project

Potential REE country

Only around 300 REE projects worldwide.

Less than 35 advanced REE projects globally.

Only 4 countries currently produce rare earths.

Only 11 countries have advanced rare earth projects.

Data: Intierra, USGS, Infomine, Technology Metals

Research, Google Earth, IHC Merwerde, Panoramio

Buckton Two Tom

Foxtrot

Niobec Montviel

Clay-

Howells

La

Paz

Araxa

Ngualla

TRE

Mary Kathleen

Narraburra


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Forex problematic in rare earths

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

AUD CAD RMB

Stro

ng

er

We

ak

er

Data: CIA World Factbook


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What about capital costs?

Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Inputs to capital costs

Pre-production

Equipment

Labour

Tailings Dam

Images: Molycorp, Shutterstock


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Capital sensitivity by operation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Open Pit Underground Processing

Equipment Labour Pre-production Tailings Other

Data: Infomine


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Capital costs soaring

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150Open Pit Underground Processing

Data: Infomine


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Battling with grades & scale

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CPI Surface Mines

Underground Mines Mills

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%

Min

ing

+ M

illin

g C

ap

ex (

US

$M

)

Ore Grade

Mining Milling

y = 6.2093x-0.818

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Min

ing

+ M

illin

g C

ap

ex

(US

$M

)

Ore Grade

US Capital Cost Indices versus US Consumer Price Inflation

Increase in mining + milling

capital costs related to

decreasing resource grade

for a hypothetical open pit

copper mine with a stripping

ratio of 2:1, processing

recovery of 95% and

producing 100,000 tonnes of

copper per year

Data: Infomine


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Rare earth capital costs: breakdown



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Source: Quest Rare Minerals


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Rare earth capital costs: breakdown Source: Hudson

Resources


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Source: Pele Mountain Resources


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Rare earth capital costs: compared



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Calculating mining costs for rare

earth projects Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Which is the cheaper operation? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake/Nechalacho


























Cheaper operation?

Source: Avalon Rare

Metals, Rare

Element Resources


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The problem with $/REO costs Cummins Range Resource Composition

Metal Sept 2011 oxide

price (US$/kg)

Proportion in

resource (%)

Value of

resource oxide

blend (US$/kg)

Lanthanum 110.00 27.3 30.03

Cerium 110.00 47.7 52.47

Praseodymium 248.50 4.8 11.93

Neodymium 309.17 15.2 46.99

Samarium 128.50 1.6 2.06

Europium 4,810.00 0.4 19.24

Gadolinium 192.50 1.0 1.93

Terbium 3,710.00 0.1 3.71

Dysprosium 2,290.00 0.5 11.45

Others - 1.4 -

Total 100.0 US$179.80/kg

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Thor Lake

Dubbo

Lake Hoidas

Nolans

Kvanefjeld

Cummins Range

Mt Weld

Steenkampskraal

Bayan Obo

Bear Lodge

Mountain Pass

Resource oxide blend (US$/kg)

Not all REO oxides are

created equal !!!

Data: Metal Pages (prices), Technology Metals Research (resources)


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Which is the cheaper operation? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake/Nechalacho












Basket value (REO): US$ 353,190 / tonne REO

Profit Margin (REO): US$ 335,910 / tonne REO

















Greater margin

Source: Avalon

Rare Metals, Rare

Element Resources


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What’s missing here?

Source: Molycorp


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One alternative? Margin costing? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake/Nechalacho















Opex / $1,000 REO: US$ 48.93 / $1,000 REO
















Opex / $1,000 REO: US$ 57.33 / $1,000 REO

($1000 / $353,190) x $17,280 = US$48.93 / $1,000 REO

Source: Avalon Rare

Metals, Rare

Element Resources


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One alternative? Margin costing? • Essentially the cost of producing $1,000 revenue

Advantages

• Allows comparison of projects with very different rare earth

product values

• Simple calculation using common rare earth industry metrics

• Reflective of likely profitability

Disadvantages

• Relies on an assumption of revenues

• Relies on questionable practice of basket value

• Possibly just easier to calculate overall margin

Margin Cost = ( $1,000 / Basket Value of REOs ) x Cost

per tonne REO


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Another alternative? Nd costing? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake




Operating Cost (Nd): US$ 114,103 / tonne Nd

Non-Nd REE Revenue: US$ 403,625 / tonne Nd

Nd Net of REE Cost: US$ -289,522 / tonne Nd

Non-REE By-Product Rev: US$ 18,008 / tonne Nd

Nd Net By-Product Cost: US$ -307,529 / tonne Nd





Operating Cost (Nd): US$ 53,574 / tonne Nd

Non-Nd REE Revenue: US$ 224,889 / tonne Nd

Nd Net of REE Cost: US$ -171,315 / tonne Nd

Non-REE By-Product Rev: US$ 0 / tonne Nd

Nd Net By-Product Cost: US$ -171,315 / tonne Nd

([$240 x 730,000] / 1,535) - $403,625 - $18,008 = -$307,529/t Nd

Source: Avalon Rare Metals, Rare Element Resources

([$245 x 415,000] / 1,898) - $224,889 - $0 = -$171,315/t Nd


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Another alternative? Dy costing? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake




Operating Cost (Dy): US$ 741,668 / tonne Dy

Non-Dy REE Revenue: US$ 2,596,769 / tonne Dy

Dy Net of REE Cost: US$ -1,855,101 / tonne Dy

Non-REE By-Product Rev: US$ 117,050 / tonne Dy

Dy Net By-Product Cost: US$ -1,972,151 / tonne Dy





Operating Cost (Dy): US$ 2,892,979 / tonne Dy

Non-Dy REE Revenue: US$ 16,460,748 / tonne Dy

Dy Net of REE Cost: US$ -13,567,769 / tonne Dy

Non-REE By-Product Rev: US$ 0 / tonne Dy

Dy Net By-Product Cost: US$ -13,567,769 / tonne Dy

([$240 x 730,000] / 236) - $2,596,769 - $117,050 = -$1,972,151/t Dy


([$245 x 415,000] / 35) - $16,460,748 - $0 = -$13,567,769/t Dy


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Alternative? Nd or Dy costing? • Essentially the cost of producing $1,000 revenue

Advantages

• Comparison of mines with differing rare earth product values

• Can determine the competitiveness of mines in producing a

specific rare earth of interest i.e. Nd or Dy

• Doesn’t rely on revenue assumptions to calculate initial cost

Disadvantages

• By-products netted off, which is a questionable practice

• Costs often “negative” which is counter-intuitive

Nd Cost =

( Total Annual Operating Expense / Nd Production )

– Non-Nd REE Revenues – By-Product Revenues


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Alternative? Value based costing? Avalon Rare Metals – Thor Lake




Value Based REE Cost (Nd): US$ 21,076 / tonne Nd

Value Based REE & By-Product Cost (Nd):

US$ 20,336 / tonne Nd

Value Based REE Cost (Dy): US$ 143,167 / tonne Dy

Value Based REE & By-Product Cost (Dy):

US$ 138,142 / tonne Dy





Value Based REE Cost (Nd): US$ 15,487 / tonne Nd

Value Based REE & By-Product Cost (Nd):

US$ 15,487 / tonne Nd

Value Based REE Cost (Dy): US$ 105,201 / tonne Dy

Value Based REE & By-Product Cost (Dy):

US$ 105,201 / tonne Dy



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Alternative? Value based costing? • Essentially the cost of producing $1,000 revenue

Advantages

• Comparison of mines with differing rare earth product values

• Can determine the competitiveness of mines in producing a

specific rare earth of interest i.e. Nd or Dy

• Attributes a cost to all products sold

• Easily incorporates non-REE by-products

Disadvantages

• Fairly complex calculation

• Relies on revenue assumptions

Value Based Nd Cost =

Total Annual Operating Expense x ( Nd Revenue /

[ ND Revenue + Non-Nd REE Revenues + By-Product

Revenues ] )


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Using costs curves as an

analytical tool Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8


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Assessing industry structure • A recent Macquarie Commodities Research report (21st March 2011) highlighted that the high

commodity prices over the last few years due to demand from China were encouraging new supply on

stream but that it was mainly marginal and this was increasing the gap between marginal and low cost

operations.

• In the short term this will lead to super profits for low cost miners, which will encourage capital

reinvestment into new low cost supply.

• Ultimately though this will lead to new low cost supply lowering commodity prices in the medium term,

as described in previous slides.

Large gap

between

price and

cost – new

supply

needed Large gap between

high and low costs,

will make low cost

sector very

profitable and

encourage re-

investment


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So what about rare earths?

Rare earths as

a by-product

Future low cost supply

(generally less advanced)

Future marginal

supply (generally

more advanced)


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Lights versus heavies?

Lights

Heavies


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Capital costs: What is affordable?

Kvanefjeld

(Greenland Minerals & Energy)

Mt Weld

(Lynas)

Mountain Pass

(Molycorp)

Zandkopsdrift

(Frontier Rare Earths)

Nolans Bore

(Arafura Resources)

Dubbo

(Alkane Resources)

Strange Lake

(Quest Rare Minerals)

Eco Ridge

(Pele Mountain Resources)

Hastings

(Hastings Rare Metals)

Bear Lodge

(Rare Element

Resources)

Sarfartoq

(Hudson Resources)

Thor Lake

(Avalon Rare Metals)

Kipawa-Zeus

(Matamec Explorations)

Market Capitalisation

(equiv. US$10 million)

Project Capital Cost

(equiv. US$100 million)


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Rare Earth Mine Costs: Contents

1 Limited publicly available data on rare earth mine costs

2 A return to mine cost principles is therefore required

3 Key inputs for mining are fuel, labour, power &

consumables – likely to be similar for rare earths?

4 Different mine types have differing cost structures – rare

earths mining maybe moving from alluvial to hard rock?

5 Grade, geography and by-products are important

sensitivities in mine costs – also for rare earths?

6 Key capital inputs are construction, labour & ground

works – the industry is increasingly capex sensitive

7 Rare earths costing faces significant challenges in multi-

product costing – different costs create different results?

8 However we are beginning to understand cost evolution

in the industry and it raises questions about viability


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References from this section • The Bear Lodge project, Rare Element Resources,

http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/BearLodge.asp

• The Nechalacho project, Avalon Rare Metals,

http://avalonraremetals.com/projects/thor_lake/thor_lake_intro/

• Infomine Mining Cost Service 2011, Infomine, http://costs.infomine.com/ - subscription required

• Global Copper Market Trends 2011-12 for the ICSG Environmental & Economic Committee

Meeting, Robin Bahr, Credit Agricole, 14th April 2011,

http://www.icsg.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=86&Itemid=64

• Extractive Metallurgy of Rare Earths, C.K. Gupta & N. Krishnamurthy, CRC Press, 2005 – not

available online

• TMR Advanced Rare-Earth Projects Index, G. Hatch & J. Lifton, Technology Metals Research,

http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/metrics-indices/tmr-advanced-rare-earth-projects-index/

• Tin mine costs provided courtesy of ITRI, http://www.itri.co.uk/

• GNI per capita PPP data, World Bank,

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?page=2

• International Fuel Prices 2009, 6th Edition, GTZ Transport Policy Advisory Services, Federal

Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development, Germany,

http://www.gtz.de/de/dokumente/en-int-fuel-prices-6th-edition-gtz2009-corrected.pdf

• Infomine mine project information, http://www.infomine.com/

• Intierra mine project information, http://www.intierra.com/Homepage.aspx

• Cranking up the cost curve gradient, Commodities Comment, Macquarie Commodities

Research, 21st March 2011 – not available online

http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/BearLodge.asp

http://avalonraremetals.com/projects/thor_lake/thor_lake_intro/

http://costs.infomine.com/
















http://www.itri.co.uk/

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?page=2
















http://www.infomine.com/

http://www.intierra.com/Homepage.aspx


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References from this section • Developing Zandkopsdrift a world class rare earth project, February 2012, Frontier Rare

Earths, http://www.frontierrareearths.com/images/pdfs/Frontier_PEA_Presentation_21-02-12.pdf

• Mountain Pass photos, http://www.molycorp.com/

• The Next Rare Earth Era: Global Diversity in RE Manufacturing, Mark Smith, Molycorp, Sept

15th 2010 – not available online

• Metal prices, Metal Pages, https://www.metal-pages.com/

• Photo of grinding media, Technocon Engineers, http://www.steelmedia.com/grinding-media.htm

• Photo of reagent bubbles, Interfroth, http://www.interfroth.com/flotation-reagents.html

• Quest Rare Minerals Receives Results of Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for

Strange Lake B-Zone, Quest Rare Minerals, Sept 9th 2010,

http://questrareminerals.com/pdf/create/pdf.php?page=news_.php%3Furl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fcnrp.

marketwire.com%2Fclient%2Fquest_uranium%2Frelease_xml.jsp%3FactionFor%3D1316109

• Preliminary Economic Assessment on the Sarfartoq Rare Earth Element Project, Greenland,

Hudson Resources, Nov 25th 2011, http://www.hudsonresources.ca/files/HUD-PEA-SARFARTOQ-

2011.pdf

• Investor Presentation, Lynas Corporation, March 2010,

http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Presentations/Investor_Presentation_March_10_8235

34.pdf

• Kvanefjeld Multi-Element Project Pre-Feasibility Study – Interim Report Market Summary,

Greenlands Minerals and Energy, 1st February 2010,

http://www.ggg.gl/userfiles/file/ASX/GGG%20Pre-feasibility%20Announcement.pdf

• Technical Report on the Eco Ridge Mine Rare Earths & Uranium Project, Elliot Lake, Ontario,

Canada, Pele Mountain Resources, 19th August 2011,

http://www.pelemountain.com/pdf/09072011pea.pdf

http://www.frontierrareearths.com/images/pdfs/Frontier_PEA_Presentation_21-02-12.pdf





http://www.molycorp.com/

https://www.metal-pages.com/



http://www.steelmedia.com/grinding-media.htm



http://www.interfroth.com/flotation-reagents.html



http://questrareminerals.com/pdf/create/pdf.php?page=news_.php?url=http://cnrp.marketwire.com/client/quest_uranium/release_xml.jsp?actionFor=1316109

http://questrareminerals.com/pdf/create/pdf.php?page=news_.php?url=http://cnrp.marketwire.com/client/quest_uranium/release_xml.jsp?actionFor=1316109

http://www.hudsonresources.ca/files/HUD-PEA-SARFARTOQ-2011.pdf







http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Presentations/Investor_Presentation_March_10_823534.pdf

http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Presentations/Investor_Presentation_March_10_823534.pdf

http://www.ggg.gl/userfiles/file/ASX/GGG Pre-feasibility Announcement.pdf



http://www.pelemountain.com/pdf/09072011pea.pdf


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Contact details

John P. Sykes MSci (Hons) MSc ARSM MAusIMM FGS

Director, Greenfields Research Ltd (UK)

Provisional PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration

Targeting & Curtin Graduate School of Business

Australia Mobile: +61 448 658 656

Australia Office: +61 8 9467 1860

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.greenfieldsresearch.com

Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnpsykes


http://www.greenfieldsresearch.com/

http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnpsykes

http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnpsykes