raqms intex forecasting - cleanairinfo.com...forecasting during the 2004 nasa intex-na field...

SatelliteRetrievals

Global Assimilation

RegionalPrediction

Validation

Regional Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS)

Ozone Assimilation/PredictionFebruary 27, 2001

RAQMS [Pierce et al., 2003] is a nested global-to regional-scale meteorological and chemical modeling system for assimilating and predicting the chemical state of the atmosphere (air quality).

RAQMS global chemical composition assimilation and regional ozone/aerosol

forecasting during the 2004 NASA INTEX-NA field campaign

R. Bradley Pierce1, Jassim Al-Saadi1, Chieko Kittaka1, Todd K. Schaack2,Donald R. Johnson2, Tom H. Zapotocny2,Allen J. Lenzen2,

Matt Hitchman3,Greg Tripoli3,Marcus Buker3

1 NASA Langley Research Center2 University of Wisconsin, Space Science and Engineering Center,

3 University of Wisconsin, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Insitu data provided by: M. Avery (LaRC), R. Cohen (UC Berkley)

Satellite data provided by:R. McPeters (GSFC)

EPA Surface data provided by:J. Szykman (USEPA)

NOAA New England Air Quality Study

(NEAQS) mission

NASA Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment- North

America (INTEX-NA) mission

EU

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors –

(ITOP)

North Atlantic Study

RAQMS provided daily on-line global meteorological and chemical forecasts, initialized with assimilated ozone distributions, to the NASA INTEX-NA science team for mission flight planning.

ICARTT Focus areas: regional air quality, intercontinental transport, and radiation balance

2ox2.5o Global component of the LaRC/UW-Madison Regional Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) uses the UW-Hybrid dynamical core, LaRC unified strat/trop chemistry, and Statistical Digital Filtering (SFD) for real-time TOMS Ozone assimilation and chemical/dynamical predictions. [36 levels (12 eta, 24 theta, ~3km stratospheric resolution]

72hr Chem/Met Forecast24hr chemical assimilation

GFS Analyses

EPTOMS O3 Column

12Z 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z

May 11- Aug 31, 2004

RAQMSG Chemical Assimilation Chem/Met Forecast Cycle

Verification of RAQMS Upper Air O3 Analysis: INTEX RAQMS/DC8 Insitu O3 (M. Avery, LaRC)

July 2004 distribution of tropospheric ozone column (TOC) over the continental US was determined by local and remote (Alaskan Fires, Asian, European) emissions of O3 precusors (NOx, NMHC) and significant STE.

July 2004 RAQMS TOC and DC8 Flight Tracks

RAQMS O3 analysis shows very good agreement with in-situ O3 except for overestimates associated with tropopause encounters

Verification of RAQMS Surface O3 Forecast: July 2004 RAQMS Analysis/48hr Forecast

Verification of RAQMS Upper Air NO2/PAN Analysis: INTEX RAQMS/DC8 Insitu NO2/PAN (R. Cohen, UC-Berkley)

RAQMS NO2 analysis shows very good agreement with in-situ NO2 except for upper tropospheric underestimates associated with convectively influenced airmasses (BL lofting & lightning NOx)

RAQMS PAN analysis shows fair agreement with in-situ PAN except near 800mb where it is underestimated by a factor of 4, possibly due to influences from Alaskan fires.

EPA AIRNow Ozone AQI:July 18- July 22, 2004

Moderate-Unhealthy O3 AQI over TX on July 20, spread to the SE US on July 21, and then NE by July 22, 2004.

RAQMSN Average Boundary Layer Ozone: July 18-22, 2004

BL O3 July 18, 2004

July 19, 2004

July 20, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 22, 2004

RAQMSN regional Chemical simulation:

•UWNMS Dynamical Core•80Km Continental US•EDAS Met BC/IC •RAQMSG Chem BC/IC• Initialized on July 15, 2004

EPA AIRNow Peak AQI-Ozone July 22, 2004

Verification of Surface RAQMSN O3 Forecast: July 22, 2004 RAQMS/AIRNOW

EPA AIRNow PM25 AQI:July 18- July 22, 2004

Moderate PM2.5 AQI on July 20, Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Great Lakes on 21st then SE-NE by July 22, 2004.

MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth:July 18- July 22, 2004 MODIS AOD July 18, 2004

MODIS AOD July 19, 2004




Smoke from Alaskan Forest Fires

MODIS Data Gap

Link between Alaskan smoke and US AQ?

Total Column Carbon Aerosol July 18, 2004

BL Column Carbon Aerosol July 19, 2004




RAQMSN Average Boundary Layer Carbonaceous (BC+OC) Aerosol:

July 18-July 22, 2004

RAQMSN regional Aerosol simulation:

•Same Dynamics as chemical simulation •GOCART Aerosol Module•GOCART background climatological IC/BC

•MODIS BC+OC & SO4 perturbationsadded above BL at 18Z July 18, 2004

Verification of Surface RAQMSN Aerosol Forecast: July 22, 2004 RAQMS/AIRNOW

EPA AIRNow Peak AQI-Ozone July 22, 2004

Each of the Auras instrument team's Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBD) are now available after having gone through peer review. They can be found at: http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/atbd/pg1.html

High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS)•limb scans in the vertical at multiple azimuth angles, •measures infrared emissions in 21 channels ranging from 6.12 mm to 17.76 mm.

Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)• 5 microwave channels (118, 190, 240, 640 GHz, and 2.5THz

•Ability to see through upper tropospheric clouds

NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Satellite

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)•hyperspectral (740 wavelength bands)imaging solar backscatter (visible and ultraviolet) radiometer •Large swath large provides global coverage in 14 orbits (1

day) at 13 x 24 km

Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) •high-resolution infrared-imaging Fourier transform spectrometer

•capability to make both limb and nadir observations.

Conclusions:

July 22nd 2004 PM2.5 AQI over the SE and NE US was strongly influenced and O3 AQI was enhanced by entrainment of carbonaceous aerosols, O3, and O3 precusors from the Alaskan Fires.

Extra Figures

Partial TOMS coverage

Verification of RAQMS Total Column O3 Analysis: July 2004 RAQMS/EPTOMS

NH mid-latitude:• zonal mean errors are +/- 2DU• RMS errors are ~3%• anomoly correlations are >0.8

Tropics:• zonal mean subtropical low bias of 5DU• RMS errors are ~1-2%• anomoly correlations are ~0.6

Verification of RAQMS 800mb O3 Forecast: July 2004 RAQMS Analysis/48hr Forecast

Verification of Surface RAQMS O3 Analysis: July 2004 RAQMS/AIRNOW

Largest errors in Ohio River valley which shows high (>20ppbv) daytime biases due to neglect of clouds in photolysis rate calculations and low (<0.0) correlations due to weak synoptic forcing of local emissions

Good agreement (r>0.6, daytime biases <10ppbv) in SE, NE, Midwestern US associated with strong synoptic forcing of regional pollution events.

RAQMS Surface O3 Timeseries: July 2004 RAQMS/AIRNOW

“Best” Case: • relatively cloud free• strong synoptic forcing

“Worst” Case: • Frequent cloudiness• Low synoptic variability• Regional emission source

NASA Air Quality Applications*

*From NASA Earth Science Enterprise Applications Plan

Goal: Improved capability to Air Quality managers to assess, plan & implement sound-science, emissions control strategies, policy, & air quality forecasts.

The primary partners for the Air Quality Management program are the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

RAQMS NMHC TreatmentExplicit treatment of C2H6 (ethane), C2H4 (ethene) and CH3OH (methanol) oxidation [Sander et al., 2003]. C3H8 (propane) is handled semi-explicitly. C4 and larger alkanes and C3 and larger alkenes are lumped via a carbon-bond approach [Zaveri and Peters, 1999] which accounts for long-lived species and their intermediates based on the Carbon Bond Mechanism IV [Gery et al., 1989].Isoprene is modeled after the Carter 4-product mechanism as modified for RADM2.

July, Med O3, High NOx

•Standard• Revised 1: Remove NO3 + peroxy radical rxns• Revised 2: Revised 1 + ...

LaRC Run Versions

•Peroxide oxidation branching matched to GMI• Organic nitrate production matched to GMI• RO2 + NO branching matched to GMI

GMIHarvard mechanism [Bey et al., 2001]with Gear solver for 80 species (all transported in GMI)

10-day diurnal equilibrium runs with/without NMHC conducted as part of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) unified chemistry development.

(55 species/families explicitly transported, 86 calculated, PCE assumptions for “fast” species)

Chemical familiesOx=O(1D)+O(3P)+O3+NO2+HNO3+2(NO3)+3(N2O5)+HNO4+PAN+MPANNOy=N+NO+NO2+NO3+2(N2O5)+HNO3+HNO4+BrNO3+ClNO3+PAN+ONIT+MPANCly=HCl+ClONO2+ClO+2(Cl2O2)+OClO+ClO2+2(Cl2)+BrCl+HOCl+ClBry=HBr+BrONO2+BrO+BrCl+HOBr+Br

1) Ox2) Noy3) Cly4) Bry5) HNO36) N2O57) H2O28) HCl9) ClONO210) OClO11) N2O12) CFCl3 (F11)13) CF2Cl2 (F12)14) CCl415) CH3Cl16) CH3CCl3 (MTCFM)17) CH3Br18) CF3Br (H1301)

19) CF2ClBr (H1211)20) HF21) CFClO22) CF2O23) CH424) HNO425) HOCl26) H2O27) NO328) NO229) CH2O30) CH3OOH31) CO32) HBr33) BrONO234) HOBr35) BrCl36) Cl2

37) C2H6 (ethane, 2C)38) ALD2 (acetaldehyde+higher group, 2C)39) ETHOOH (ethyl hydrogen peroxide, 2C)40) PAN (2C)41) PAR (paraffin carbon bond group, 1C)42) ONIT (organic nitrate group, 1C)43) AONE (acetone, 3C)44) ROOH (C3+hydrogen peroxides group, 1C)45) MGLY (methylglyoxal, 3C)46) ETH (ethene, 2C)47) XOLET (terminal olefin carbon group, 2C)48) XOLEI (internal olefin carbon group, 2C)49) XISOP (isoprene, 5C)50) XISOPRD (isoprene oxidation product-long lived, 5C)51) PROP_PAR (propane paraffin, 1C)52) CH3OH (methanol)53) XMVK (methyl vinyl ketone, 4C)54) XMACR (methacrolein, 4C)55) XMPAN (peroxymethacryloyl nitrate, 4C)

RAQMS unified (strat/trop) chemistry

Stratosphere+CH4&CO oxidationNMHC Chemistry