rapid presentation: population and development version
TRANSCRIPT
1 November 2011
2
The Change We Seek:
Photo by Bill & M
elinda Gates Foundation
Raising Our Quali ty of Li fe
By Chief Samu'ila Danko Makama
Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPopC) Federal Government of Nigeria
November 2011
3
Nigeria’s Vision
How Fertility Affects Development
Two Paths
Our Choice
Outline
2
4
3
1
Phot
o by
Mik
e Bl
yth
A strategy to meet challenges posed by rapid population growth
Addresses linkages between population and development issues
4
Nigeria The National Policy on Population and Sustainable Development (NPPSD):
Photo by Pjotter
Source: Federal Government of Nigeria. National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development, 2004
5
Lower infant mortality to 35 per 1,000 live births
Lower child mortality rate to 45 per 1,000 live births
Lower maternal mortality to 75 per 100,000 live births
Achieve sustained growth, eradicate poverty, improve living standards
5
NPPSD’s 2015 Targets:
Phot
o by
Pjo
tter
Source: Federal Government of Nigeria. National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development, 2004
6
Photo by Mike Blyth
National Strategic Health Development Plan
Lower infant mortality to 30 per 1,000 live births
Lower maternal mortality to 136 per 100,000 live births
Adolescent births (teenage mothers): 90 per 1,000 birth mothers
Similar to NPPSD targets for 2015:
7
High Maternal Mortality Size of countries according to number of maternal deaths
Source: www.worldmapper.org
Nigeria
Mat
erna
l Mor
talit
y Ra
tio
Sources: Global estimates and 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Goal is from National Health Strategic Development Plan 2010-2015.
MDG #5: Lower Maternal Mortality Why is Nigeria failing to meet its goal?
8
9
High Child Mortality Size of countries according to number of child deaths
Source: www.worldmapper.org
Nigeria
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s
Sources: 1990, 1999, 2003, and 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys
MDG #4: Lower Child Mortality Why is Nigeria failing to meet its goal?
10
11
Nig
eria
n Re
gion
Photo by Joachim H
uber
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS)
Child Mortality Rates Child deaths (under age 5) per 1,000 live births
NPPSD Targets:
Reduce the national population annual growth rate to 2% or lower
Reduce the total fertility rate by at least 0.6 children every five years
Increase the modern contraceptive prevalence rate by at least 2 percentage points each year
12
13
World Population, 1960 Size of countries according to population size
Source: www.worldmapper.org
Nigeria
14
World Population, 2050 Size of countries according to population size
Source: www.worldmapper.org
Nigeria
15
Birth
s pe
r W
oman
(ave
rage
)
Sources: Most recent Demographic and Health Surveys
Fertility Comparison Nigeria and selected countries
Nigeria has very high fertility compared with other nations, whether they are Muslim, Christian, wealthier or poorer, larger or smaller …
16
Current Fertility by Zone Average number of live births per woman
Source: 2008 NDHS
North West 7.3
South West 4.5
North Central 5.4
North East 7.2
South East 4.8
South South 4.7
Nigeria 5.7
17
Perc
ent o
f Mar
ried
Wom
en o
f Re
prod
uctiv
e A
ge
Sources: Most recent Demographic and Health Surveys
Modern Contraceptive Use Fertility is high mainly because contraceptive use is low
18
Why?
Life
Expe
ctan
cy a
t Birt
h (y
ears
)
Source: www.gapminder.org
Health Comparison, 2010 Countries with less wealth than Nigeria have achieved better health
Bangladesh
Nigeria Chad
Senegal
Guinea Ghana
Malawi
19
Nigeria’s Vision
How Fertility Affects Development
Two Paths
Our Choice
Outline
2
4
3
1
Phot
o by
Mik
e Bl
yth
Fertility Impacts Development Because . . .
20
Phot
o by
Jere
my
Wea
te
Fertility decline helps many families out of poverty
UNFPA: “Slower population growth has encouraged overall economic growth in developing countries”
Sources: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. UNFPA State of the World Population, 2002
21
The Effect of High Fertility After Four Generations
5
25
125 Total = 155 Offspring After 4 Generations
A Couple
To Achieve Vision 20:20, Nigeria Can Learn from East Asia
The “Asian Tigers” achieved unexpectedly rapid development …
6.4
5.5
3.5
2.3 332
537
798
1,427
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
0
2
4
6
8
1960 1970 1980 199023
Birth
s pe
r W
oman
(ave
rage
)
Source: World Bank Development Indicators
Thailand’s Example Fall in fertility helped boost economic development
GD
P per Capita
(constant 2000 US$)
Economic Benefits Of Slower Population Growth:
Greater emphasis on the quality of life of the population rather than sheer numbers… More educational opportunities
Lower dependency ratios allowed for more savings and investment… More investment in modern agriculture
24
Phot
o by
Nes
tlé
24
25
Nigeria in Perspective
Why Fertility Affects Health
Two Paths
Our Choice
Outline
2
4
3
1
Phot
o by
Mik
e Bl
yth
25
26
“Low Fertility” Scenario: Nigeria meets its NPPSD targets Contraceptive use rises 2
percentage points each year
Takes 10 years to meet current unmet need
“High Fertility” Scenario: Nigeria’s current path
Photo by Jeffrey Smith
Phot
o by
IITA
Imag
e Lib
rary
26
5.7 5.2
2.0
0
2
4
6
2010 2020 2030 2040
Birth
s pe
r W
oman
(ave
rage
)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Two Paths Fertility projections under two scenarios
27
Low Fertility
High Fertility
160
359
281
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2020 2030 2040
Mill
ions
of P
eopl
e
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Rapid Population Growth Rises quickly under both scenarios
28
Low Fertility
High Fertility
29
1. Education
2. Health
3. Agriculture
4. Economy
Development Sectors
Photo by Mike Blyth
National Security
30
Phot
o by
Car
la G
omez
Mon
roy
Education
16
33
20
0
10
20
30
2010 2020 2030 2040
Num
ber o
f Stu
dent
s (m
illio
ns)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Primary School Students Fewer students, more resources per child
31
Low Fertility
High Fertility
22
47
28
0
20
40
2010 2020 2030 2040
Num
ber o
f Sch
ools
(thou
sand
s)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Primary Schools Fewer students, less pressure to build new schools
32
Low Fertility
High Fertility
340
723
433
0
200
400
600
2010 2020 2030 2040
Num
ber o
f Tea
cher
s (th
ousa
nds)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Primary School Teachers Fewer students, less pressure on school resources
33
Low Fertility
High Fertility
318
676
405
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2020 2030 2040
Nai
ra (b
illio
ns)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Expenditures on Primary Education Fewer students, less pressure on budgets
34
Low Fertility
High Fertility
35
Tota
l fer
tility
Rat
e
(chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
Fertility Declines with Increase in Education Levels of Girls Educated women have fewer children, on average
36
Phot
o by
Mik
e Bl
yth
Health
36 36
37
Too closely spaced Too young Too old Too many
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
High-Risk Births Cause Poor Health Births are “high risk” when…
38
Too Closely Spaced
38
Phot
o by
Rai
ner W
ozny
, Hei
nric
h Bö
ll Fo
unda
tion
39
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
Birth Spacing Improves Health Longer spacing leads to fewer child deaths
Years Since Last Birth
40
Unmet Need for Spacing, Limiting
UNMET NEED: When a woman expresses desire to space or limit births, but is not using any method to do so
One in five married Nigerian women has unmet need
This is more than six million couples who are not receiving services
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
41
Too Young or Too Old More children die when mother is younger or older
Photo by Mike Blyth
Many Girls Marry By Age 15
Among Nigerian women ages 25 to 49 years,
one in four was married by age 15
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
Photo by Lindsay Mgbor/D
epartment for International D
evelopment
43 Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
Teenage Girls Who Experience Pregnancy Selected states
Nigeria 23%
Photo by BBC W
orld Service
44
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s
Source: 2008 Nigeria Demographic & Health Survey
Child Mortality Children of younger and older mothers are more likely to die
Mothers’ Age during Childbirth
Too Many
45 45
Photo by Teseum
46
Mat
erna
l Mor
talit
y Ra
te
Source: 115 Demographic and Health Surveys and WHO/UNESCO/UNFPA.
Fewer Children, Lower Maternal Mortality 115 developing countries illustrate this point …
Nigeria
Brazil
Chad
Ghana
47
Most of the developing world is leaving Nigeria behind.
Source: Gapminder World
Lower Fertility… Fewer Child Deaths
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s (lo
g sc
ale)
400
40
100
0
10
Births per Woman (average) 2 4 6 8
48 Source: Gapminder World
Lower Fertility… Fewer Child Deaths
Most of the developing world is leaving Nigeria behind.
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s (lo
g sc
ale)
400
40
100
0
10
Births per Woman (average) 2 4 6 8
49 Source: Gapminder World
Lower Fertility… Fewer Child Deaths
Most of the developing world is leaving Nigeria behind.
Chi
ld D
eath
s pe
r 1,0
00 L
ive
Birth
s (lo
g sc
ale)
400
40
100
0
10
Births per Woman (average) 4 6 8 2
50
Mill
ions
of D
eath
s, C
hild
ren
unde
r 5
Photo by Joachim H
uber
Sources: Spectrum and MDG Model projections for Nigeria
Meeting Unmet Need Prevents Child Deaths During the first decade (2011–2021), meeting unmet need prevents millions of deaths
1.5 million child deaths averted
0
51
Thou
sand
s of
Mat
erna
l Dea
ths
Photo by Lindsay Mgbor/D
epartment for International D
evelopment
Sources: Spectrum and MDG Model projections for Nigeria
Meeting Unmet Need Saves Lives Mothers’ lives would also be saved (2011–2021)
31,000 lives saved
52
Mill
ions
of M
othe
rs
Expe
rienc
ing
Mor
bidi
ty
Photo by Soumik Kar Sources: Spectrum and MDG Model projections for Nigeria
Meeting Unmet Need Averts Maternal Morbidity 2011–2021
700,000+ women avert
morbidity
0.0
93
210
164
0
100
200
2010 2020 2030 2040
Thou
sand
s of
Mid
wiv
es
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Midwives Required Fewer births, less pressure on midwives
53
Low Fertility
High Fertility
16
36
28
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040
Thou
sand
s of
Hos
pita
ls
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Hospitals Required Fewer patients, less pressure on hospitals
54
Low Fertility
High Fertility
Cum
ulat
ive
Nai
ra (b
illio
ns)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Health Expenditures Fewer patients, less pressure on budgets
55
Low Fertility
High Fertility
Cumulative Savings: Naira 47 Billion
56
1.5 million child deaths averted (MDG Goal #4)
31 thousand maternal lives saved (MDG #5)
Lower maternal and child health complications
Less burden on midwives and other resources to meet ALL the MDGs
In Summary Lower fertility in Nigeria means during the next 10 years…
Photo by Jeremy W
eate
57
Agriculture
Phot
o by
Jere
my
Wea
te
58
Rice
(bill
ions
met
ric to
ns)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Rice Consumption Lower fertility, greater food security
Low Fertility
High Fertility
About 400 million fewer metric tons of rice in the year 2040
Num
ber o
f Hec
tare
s pe
r Per
son
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Arable Land per Person High fertility, less land per person over time
59
Low Fertility
High Fertility
60
Gro
wth
and
Em
ploy
men
t
Economy
Phot
o by
Edu
ard
Gre
be
172
748
953
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2020 2030 2040
Thou
sand
s of
Nai
ra
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
GDP Per Capita Assumes 6% real GDP growth rate
61
Low Fertility
High Fertility
Percent of Total Population
Source: National Population Commission
Age Structure Nigerian population pyramid, 2010
62
Female Male
Age
Ran
ge in
Yea
rs
Working-age Nigerians support younger and older dependents
0.84 0.78
0.48
0.0
0.5
1.0
2010 2020 2030 2040
Num
ber o
f Dep
ende
nts
per W
orke
r
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
Dependency Lower fertility, fewer dependents per working-age person
63
Low Fertility
High Fertility
Nee
ded
Ann
ually
(mill
ions
)
Source: Spectrum projections for Nigeria
New Jobs Required Fewer new job seekers, better security
64
Low Fertility
High Fertility
65
Nigeria in Perspective
Why Fertility Affects Health
Two Paths
Our Choice
Outline
2
4
3
1
Phot
o by
Mik
e Bl
yth
Better job security and food security
Better health and education
Higher per capita GDP
Better QUALITY of life
66
The Change We Seek:
Photo by Lindsay Mgbor/D
epartment for International D
evelopment
Mr. President, please help our people plan safer pregnancies. We need to provide commodities and services for birth spacing, timing, and limiting.
In the short term, we need: Signing of the National Health Bill to help fund primary health care in Nigeria
A permanent budget line item for family planning
Release of the committed 2011 MDG funds for family planning commodities
Please attend a RAPID event for the National Assembly
67
Let’s Take Action
Photo by by Banjii
68
Thank You
The Change We Seek: Raising Our Quality of Life
RAPID Nigeria
Photo by Kate Dixon