Random Reflections on the Hong Kong Property Market Nicholas Brooke Chairman 22 nd March 2005 Professional Property Services Limited PPSPPS Menu Outlook for the property market Chasing the tourism dollar Funding of cultural and heritage initiatives Health warnings PPSPPS A More Predictable Property Market? Shift from trading to investment mentality More comprehensive long term approach to planning and land use Land supply driven policy Influence of Government Re-think of housing policy Market largely driven by fundamentals But Beware of euphoric forecasts PPSPPS Influence of Government Leasehold land tenure system Principal generator of land supply Disposals application list system Lease modifications Agencies URA / MTRC / KCRC Dependence on land revenues Major owner and until recently provider of social housing PPSPPS Market Overview Residential Ultimate barometer of Hong Kongs well being In recovery mode but is it sustainable? Three markets within a market Potential issues relating to supply in Vulnerability to increases in interest rates Speculation at top end Total Stock of Private Residential Units by Class in Hong Kong Classification of Residential Units by Class : Class A - saleable area less than 40m Class B - saleable area of 40m to 69.9m Class C - saleable area of 70m to 99.9m Class D - saleable area of 100m to 159.9m Class E - saleable area of 160m and above Class B (501,137 units) Class A (361,243)units) Class D (53,646 units) Class C (110,624 units) Class E (24,112 units) Sources: Rating and Valuation Department Hong Kong Residential Market (Overall) Supply, Take-up & Vacancy Hong Kong Residential Market (Overall) Supply, Take-up & Vacancy Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR & PPS Hong Kong Residential Market Annual Price Indices (1999 = 100) Hong Kong Residential Market Annual Price Indices (1999 = 100) Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR & PPS Hong Kong Residential Market Annual Rental Indices (1999 = 100) Hong Kong Residential Market Annual Rental Indices (1999 = 100) Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR & PPS The Leighton Hill, Happy Valley Tin Shui Wai, Yuen Long PPSPPS The State of the Commercial Markets Strengthening occupational market Disconnect between occupational demand and investment appetite Inflexibility of existing supply Future of CBD? City approach to the attraction of major space users PPSPPS Supply, Demand & Vacancy in Prime Areas New Supply & Take-up (net sq ft)Vacancy Rate (%) * As of September 04 Source : CB Richard Ellis Limited PPSPPS Key Ingredients of a World Class City DiversityEducationEmployment Quality of life PPSPPS Chasing the Tourism Dollar National/city approach to creating world class tourist destinations Development of family tourism Disneyland and Ocean Park Legalisation and growth of gaming Emergence of Macau as the Las Vegas of Asia Disneyland Ocean Park PPSPPS Lack of Overall Conservation Policy Both built and natural heritage require protection Often piecemeal approach with no overall responsibility or policy Lack of not-for-profit culture or lifestyle capital mentality Need for more sustainable model if we are to retain what is left of our heritage assets PPSPPS Muddled Approach to Cultural Activities Absence of holistic approach Entrustment but to whom? Why just a single cluster? Lack of community involvement in conceptual thinking Assumption that if you build, they will come PPSPPS Premium/Return Driven Approach Presumption that property developers are only solution to conservation and cultural initiatives Results in less than optimum solutions as developer is bottom line driven Present assessment criteria means strong financial bid will always win New mind-set required sites should not be sold they are public assets West Kowloon Aerial View West Kowloon Conceptual Proposal Former Marine Police Headquarters a heritage hotel with food and beverages outlets and retail facilities for completion in 2007 Source : Flying Snow Limited The Magistracy CPS Barrack Block PPSPPS Health Warnings (I) Continued Government involvement Lack of meaningful institutional investor pool Trading mentality still prevails Lack of sophisticated asset management expertise Failure to resolve long term policy/strategy issues Heritage Sustainability Urban Renewal PPSPPS Health Warnings (II) Absence of successful public and private partnership model Potential volatility of supply Lack of joined up thinking Need for strategic planning No account yet taken of intangible returns Thank You! Professional Property Services Limited