Rajendra Shende, TERREFormer Director UNEP

XV European Conference 7-8 June 2013

“The Montreal Protocol is….. the most successful

climate treaty to date…”

Mario Molina Nobel Laureate et al. 2009, PNAS

Bail out by the Bail out by the Montreal Protocol…Montreal Protocol…

Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 GtCO2-eq/yr

5-6 times Kyoto target

• Complacency Results in Talks with little Action Complacency Results in Talks with little Action

……Lessons ? Lessons ?

• More data gets generated about Past than FutureMore data gets generated about Past than Future

• Policy makers breed the success by less successPolicy makers breed the success by less success

OZONEDEPLETION

GLOBALWARMINGGLOBALWARMING

Managing our AtmosphereManaging our Atmosphere

Bring Down To

Stabilize at

Chlorine Loading : Chlorine Loading : Chemistry of Montreal ProtocolChemistry of Montreal Protocol

* 4 ppb 2 ppb

CO2 Concentration: CO2 Concentration: Chemistry of Kyoto ProtocolChemistry of Kyoto Protocol

* 380 ppm 280 ppm ( 450 ppm)

SROC Figure TS -1

Direct GWP-weighted emissions

SROC Figure TS -9

….if high-GWP HFCs become the primary

replacements to HCFCs,

“Without immediate action to address these challenges and strengthen the

treaty, the Montreal Protocol is in danger of becoming a liability to the

global commons.

“We the Peoples: the Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century”, 2000, pg 56

The reputation of the Montreal Protocol is at stake.

BAU could result in the Montreal Protocol being responsible for the emission of

130-190 Gt CO2-eq. (Velders et al. 2009 estimates of HFC emissions + ODS Banks).

If we consider the reduced energy efficiency in refrigeration and Air conditioning

equipment and appliances this figure would be much higher.

The reputation of the Montreal Protocol is at stake.

Research in Progress ….Research in Progress ….14 new refrigerants,40 under testing14 new refrigerants,40 under testing,,

32 yest to get designation32 yest to get designation

……Speed? Speed? Cooperation? Cooperation?

Challenges

Threat from "banks”

Market imperatives

China Factor

Green Economy : Are we missing theopportunity?

Global Cooperation on system development

New Business Opportunities, Employment

Spring Board : Financing Energy efficiency

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT-Domestic Refrigerator -

Domestic Refrigerators

700550

450375

1750

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1972 1993 2001 2004 2007

Year

Kw

H

++

BURDEN

__

19921987 1997

Ref: OzonAction

Social & economic Cost

TECHNOLOGY FOSTERING: EFFICIENCY GAINS

Experience of Montreal Protocol

BENEFITS

Year

We have demonstrated concerted and Synchronised actions

WE Can Lose the battle But not lessons

END