rail to dulles and "the highway of the one percent", rca reston 2020, may 9, 2012

8/2/2019 Rail to Dulles and "The Highway of the One Percent", RCA Reston 2020, May 9, 2012

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White Paper

Reston Citizens Association

Reston 2020 Committee

May 9, 2012

Rail to Dulles and

The Highway of the One Percent

Summary

Contrary to the perception generated by political posturing and massive media attention

to the Project Labor Agreement (PLA) issue confronting Phase 2 of the Silver Line

construction debate, PLAs are a marginal issue in the line's success.

The core issue Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and the so-called stakeholders

in the construction of the Silver Line must address is the gross inequity and negative

economic consequences of the more than 800% planned increase in tolls to finance the

its construction. In fact, the huge toll increases make Dulles Toll Road users theprimary financial stakeholder in the Silver Line. Those massive increases are dictated in

the current financial arrangement among the Metropolitan Washington Airports

Authority (MWAA), Fairfax County, and Loudoun County that commits 100,000 or so toll

road users to paying 63% of the $2.8 billion estimated cost of Phase 2 and over half the

lines total $5.7 billion construction cost. All together, the official MWAA forecast sees

toll road users paying more than $17 billion over four decades to pay off near-junk rated

revenues bonds issued by MWAA to cover the construction costs while local jurisdictions

and landowners reap the economic benefit. This is an inefficient, unethical, and unfair

way to manage anypublic roadway, much less one that is such a vital transportation

artery for western Fairfax County and eastern Loudoun County.

The impact on area transportation borders on devastating. These increases will cause

the annual costs for regular toll road users to escalate from less than $1,000 to more

than $8,000over $3,000 in 2012 dollar termsby 2048. Those costs will eat up nearly

half the projected gains in real Fairfax County median household income, resulting in a

$17 billion expenditure loss to the local economy. Moreover, MWAAs official estimates

indicate that the exorbitant toll increases will force some 30,000 or more cars onto local

roads next year when tolls double. Even allowing for a generous shift of travelers to

Metrorail, 104,000 vehicles per day will likely divert to local roads by the end of the

forecast period as tolls skyrocket and population and employment grow. The Dulles Toll

Road will become an over-priced, under-utilized roadway better known as The

Highway of the One Percent.

Beyond the specific effects on toll road users, the skyrocketing tolls will limit or

possibly even reverse the projected economic growth along the Dulles Corridor

stimulated by the Silver Line. Increasingly cost-conscious employers are less likely to

pay premium rents or even come to the corridor if their employees and customers face

exorbitant toll costs to reach them. And families who anticipate the huge toll growth

will be less inclined to move there or pay higher rents or home prices, especially outside

the immediate Metrorail station areas.


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Reston Citizens Association (RCA) and its community planning committee, the Reston

2020 Committee, have long held three core principles regarding the Silver Line:

The Silver Line should be built promptly to Dulles Airport with the three Reston-area stations as now planned.

The allocation of construction costs laid out in the 2004 Final Environmental

Impact Statement (FEIS) was a fair and reasonable one, including the 25% share to

be paid by Dulles Toll Road users.

Given the current limited level of federal and state financing, those who will benefit

most financially from the lines construction should be the principal investors in it

and the public infrastructure it will require.

MWAA will see more airline passengers and on-airport business

development opportunitiesfrom the lines construction,

Private landowners/developers will earn major profits on station area

property sales and rentals, and

Local governments will garner extra revenues as those landowners'

property values increase.

We continue to believe these principles are reasonable, cost-effective, and fair.

Current vs. Reston 2020 Proposed Metrorail Silver Line Total Cost Shares

Funding Current Current Proposed Proposed

Source Commitment Share_ Commitment Share__

--Federal $900.0M 15.7% $900.0M 15.7%

--Virginia $275.0M 4.8% $275.0M 4.8%

--MWAA (Av)

& Counties $1,431.7M 25.0% $1,517.3M 26.5%

--Station area

Landowners -0- 0% $1,517.3M 26.5%--Dulles Toll

Road Users $3,120.0M 54.5% $1,517.3M 26.5%

$5,726.7M $5,726.7M

MWAA and the county governments, station area landowners, and Dulles Toll Road

users should share equally the otherwise unfunded costs of the Silver Line1/3

each. With at least the $1.2 billion committed by federal and state authorities to

construction of the Silver Line and the lingering possibility that some future incremental

federal or state funding may be available for Phase 2, that means that each would

contribute about $1.5 billion or 26.5% toward construction costs. To help ensure such an

equitable arrangement, Secretary LaHood needs to include representatives from

affected local civic groups, Including Reston Citizen Association, in the ongoing

discussions.

To do otherwise risks construction of the Silver Line and its intended role as a major

economic driver for northern Virginia, whether or not PLAs are part of the package.


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Rail to Dulles and The Highway of the One Percent

White Paper

Reston Citizens Association


May 9, 2012

Between the pontification of political leaders in Washington, Richmond, Fairfax, and Leesburg about the

appropriate role of Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) in the Phase 2 Silver Line construction and the

medias endless frothing at the politicization of this, one would think that PLAs are the key issue in the

completion of the Silver Line.

They are not.

From a cost perspective, opponents of rail to Dulles say it will probably add 10% or so to the cost of the

contract. Proponents of the rail line say it probably will not, and yet it will help smooth the construction

process and avoid cost overruns. They both may be right; they both may be wrong. Neither outcome

will materially affect the final construction cost or long-term economic success of the linenor should

they be a driver in deciding whether to proceed promptly with Phase 2 of the Silver Line. Yet, even

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has fallen into this mis-directed imbroglio.

What Secretary LaHood and the so-called stakeholders ought to be focusing on is equity, fairness,effectiveness, and ethics in financing the Silver Line: Nearly two-thirds of the cost of Phase 2 and over

half the total cost of the line will be borne by Dulles Toll Road users under the current financial

arrangement who receive virtually no benefit from its construction.

The core issue is tolls and Dulles Toll Road users are the Silver Lines principal financial stakeholders!

The cost to toll road users will be more than $17 billion over the next four decades predominantly for

debt service on junk-rated MWAA toll road revenue bonds to finance the rail lineaccording to

MWAAs official forecast. Those costs will fall on between 100,000-150,000 current toll road users,

about half of whom are from Fairfax County and a fifth from Loudoun County according to a 2009 survey

of toll road users sponsored by Wilbur Smith & Associates, now CDM Smith.

The result is an escalation of tolls from a one-way full toll of $1.25 in 2009 before MWAA started issuing

rail-related bonds to $2.25 today to double that toll next year and triple todays toll in 2018 , and

spiraling upward from there. Even in real 2012 dollar terms, tolls will quadruple from pre-rail financing

levels by 2018 and sextuple a decade later with 2.5% inflation.


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Regular toll road users (two times per day, five days per week, 44 weeks per year) will see their annual

toll costs skyrocket from less than $1,000 per year now in a similar manner, reaching over $8,000 in

2050, and more than $3,000 by 2028 in 2012 dollars.

$2.25$4.50

$6.75

$8.75

$10.75

$12.75

$1

4.75

$16.75

$18.75

$4.39

$5.82

$6.67

$7.24

$7.59

$7.76

$7.79

$7.71

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

2012

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

Official Toll Forecast for the Dulles Toll Road,

2012-2050, Full One-Way Toll, Nominal and Real 2012 Prices

Forecast Toll Real Toll ($2012 @ 2.5%/yr)

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, January 2012

$1,980

$2,970

$3,850

$4,730

$5,610

$6,490

$7,370

$8,250

$770$942

$2,793 $3,033$3,179 $3,251 $3,263 $3,228

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual Nominal and $2012 Toll Cost for

Regular Dulles Toll Road User

Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks)

Inflation-Adjusted Toll Costs per Year (44 WorkWeeks, 2.5%/Yr)

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, February 2012


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Even with the continued solid growth in Fairfax County median household income over the last two

decades enjoying relatively moderate inflation during that same period, the increased tolls will eat up

nearly half of any real household income gains over the next 40 years. That is money that will not be

going into the local economy and it is enough to discourage people from moving to or working in the

Dulles Corridor. Why put your pay raise in the toll basket?

This will occur because toll costs will escalate from $0.16 per mile todayroughly consistent with the

national average for this class of toll roadto $1.30/mile in 2050. Thats $0.38/mile in 2012 dollars

nearly two and one-half times the current national average toll cost per mile. With the astronomical

projected tolls, anyone who could use Metrorail almost certainly would rather than taking the toll road.

The only remaining toll road users will be coming from or going to places not served by Metrorail or they

will have so much money they simply dont care

8.0%

21.3%

1.9%8.8%48.0%

3.7%3.1%

3.5%1.7%

Forecast Spending of Cumulative Real Disposable Household

Income Gains for Median Income Household,

Fairfax County, 2012-2048, Regular DTR Users

Food & Beverage Housing Apparel

Transportation Toll Increases Medical Care

Recreation Educ. & Comm. Other

We define a "regular toll road

user" as a person who drives

his/her vehicle twice a day, 5

days a week, 44 weeks per

year, on the Dulles Toll Road.

Median real Fairfax County

real household income, now

at $103,000 per year, is

forecast to grow at 0.2% peryear over the forecast period

based on 2.8%/year nominal

growth and 2.6%/year

inflation growth from 1990-

2010. Allocations based on

BLS categories and CPI-US

shares, February 2012.



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Indeed, one of the consequences of the exorbitant toll increases is that the Dulles Toll Road will virtually

become The Highway of the OnePercent. The modest toll increases since 2009 have already led to an

eight percent decline in traffic even as the economy has been recovering. CDM Smith, MWAAs official

traffic and revenue forecaster, projects that ridership will drop 18% next year when tolls doublesome

30,000 or so vehicles per day by our calculations out of the 150,000-200,000 vehicles that use the toll

road daily based on 2010 Virginia traffic counts.

Looking longer term, CDM Smith projects a 28% decline in toll road use from current levels in the 2010-

2050 timeframe while Renaissance Planning Group, the socio-economic forecasting company that

supported CDM Smiths toll road traffic and revenue analysis efforts, forecasts a 36% increase in

population and a 47% increase in jobs for the Silver Linesprimary market area over the same period. So

the potential market for the toll road ought to increase by 26-37%some 22,000-88,000 vehicles per

day, an average of 55,000 per dayif (a) there was no Metrorail line and (b) tolls were to remain steady

in 2012 dollar terms. Allowing for an optimistic 10% share of the 3.1 million new residents and

employees in this primary market area using Metrorail or other travel means, the toll road will only

serve 126,000 vehicles per day (potential range is 108,000-144,000 vehicles per day) out of a potential

market of 230,000 vehicles per day.

$0.31

$0.47

$0.61

$0.74

$0.88

$1.02

$1.16$1.30

$0.16

$0.18 $0.20$0.23 $0.26

$0.30 $0.34$0.38

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

Dulles Toll Road Toll Cost per Mile, Full Length,

Nominal and Inflation-Adjusted Base

Full Length Cost/Mile (Greenway-I495)

Inflation-Adjusted Full Length Toll Cost/Mile ($2012 @ 2.5%/Yr)


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Washington Metrorail Service Area, including Silver Line Primary Market Area

Source: Analysis of Population and Employment Forecasts for the Washington DC Region 2010-2040, Renaissance Planning

Group, October 17, 2011, p.3.

That means an estimated average of 104,000 vehicles per day

(a potential range of 86,000-122,000 vehicles per day) will

divert to already clogged local roads in Fairfax and Loudoun

counties by 2050 if the various underlying forecasts are

accurate. So while toll road traffic probably ought to be

increasing sharply in the next four decades, it will instead be

declining by more than a quarter. The vehicles diverting from

the toll road will do so because it is far too expensive, leaving

the tollway to the one percent or so for whom the high tolls are

meaningless and the extra minutes saved are valuable. (We

welcome alternative estimates and explanations about these

changes in traffic patterns from knowledgeable authorities

VDOT, MWAA, FCDOT, LCDOT, WMATA, or othersall of whom

have been reluctant to offer them so far.)

We believe this is an inefficient, unethical, inequitable, and

unfair way to manage any public roadway, much less one that

is such a vital transportation artery for western Fairfax County

and eastern Loudoun County.

Aside from the tremendous traffic

impacts, Virginias Governor and

General Assembly have been

discussing the devolution of road

construction and maintenance

costs to local jurisdictionsand

not transferring state funds with it.

The result could be large budget

deficits for Fairfax and Loudoun

counties and/or huge property tax

increases to replace the funds the

state will no longer provide and

meet the transportation needs of

their growing number of residentsand employees. This is a potential

unintended consequence that no

official has publicly acknowledged

so far, much less considered or

begun to address.


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More broadly, this foolish approach to financing the Silver Line will erode its value as a driver of

economic growth in either Fairfax or Loudoun County, although we cannot precisely quantify those

effects. Indeed, it could be counter-productive. In this era of business cost-efficiency, employers will

be unlikely to move to or pay higher rents for a location where the bulk of their employees face

unusually high living costsjust to commutein an area that already has a high cost of living. As recent

corporate departures from the Dulles Corridorincluding the departures from Reston of Accenture to

Arlington and LaFarge North America to Chicagoindicate, cutting office space costs and having access

to inexpensive transportation close to clients are todays office location decision-drivers.

Many families are likely to avoid taking up residence in the corridor areaespecially beyond the

immediate station areasif they, too, face a high cost of commuting or otherwise drive on the toll road

to sustain their lifestyles. They certainly are unlikely to pay premium prices to live there, especially

outside the immediate station areas. If federal spendingpayroll or contractscontinues to shrink as

many believe it must, it could actually turn the Dulles Corridors anticipated economic expansion into a

contraction for many years.

The Reston Citizens Associationwhich represents the communitys 58,000 residentsand its Reston

2020 Committee, the committee charged with addressing Restons future with the goal of sustaining itsquality of life, have been involved in advocating the construction of the Silver Line for years. That

advocacy has been centered on three core principles:

The Silver Line should be built promptly to Dulles Airport with the three Reston-area stations as planned.

The allocation of construction costs laid out in the 2004 Final Environmental

Impact Statement (FEIS) was a fair, including the 25% to be paid by Dulles Toll

Road users. It creates an incentive for drivers to shift to public transit.

In the face of limited federal and state financing, however, those who will benefitmost financially from the lines construction should be the principal investors in it

and the public infrastructure it will require.

We continue to believe these principles are reasonable, fair, and cost-efficient, yet current plansthreaten to undermine all three principles.

The failure of the federal and state governments to live up to the allocations laid out in the 2004 FEIS

has left the local jurisdictions and Dulles Toll Road users holding the bag.

The US Government committed $900 million toward construction of Phase 1 and thenbowed out, most recently rejecting a $1,950 million FY2012 TIFIA direct loan proposal

from MWAA. Under the FEIS allocation, it was supposed to contribute 50% of the lines

construction, now about $2.9 billion.

The Virginia General Assembly and Governor have not yet lived up to their expected FEISshare to cover 25% of the lines construction costs. The state has committed a total of

$275 million (4.8%) under both Republican and Democrat governors. A possible $150

million contribution to Phase 2 financing is pending the resolution of the PLA dispute.

The result is that the local so-called local funding partnersMWAA, Fairfax, and Loudounand toll

road users have been forced to pick up the $3.1 billion shortfall in funding for the lines construction.

Rather than step up to the funding plate to meet the revenue shortfall, the funding partners decided in

secretto stick toll road users with the added burden. There was no disclosure of the terms to the public,

much less hearings, ahead of time. The result is that toll road users are now stuck with 55% of the

total $5.7 billion cost of the line and 63% of the cost of Phase 2about $1,766 million.


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Reston 2020 believes that, whether or not Loudoun County participates in funding Silver Line

construction, a fair allocation of the cost consistent with RCAs core principles is one in which those who

are likely to benefit most financially from the lines construction ought to be the most heavily invested in

its success. In our view, that means the following financial allocation to cover construction costs not

covered by federal or state assistance or other revenue sources:

MWAA and the participating counties should pay one-third of the costs out of their generalinternal revenue streams. This would include not only the costs officially in the project, but

those recently shifted to the counties to cover stations and parking garages. This means

additional MWAA funding from its Aviation Fundvarious airport user feesand fees from on-

site businesses, and more general tax revenue (probably from property taxes) for the counties.

They may wish to pro rate their current shares or negotiate a new allocation among themselves.

Property owners in roughly the half-mile circlethe transit-oriented development (TOD)walking distance areaaround each station should pay one-third of the costs through special

tax districts. Fairfax County has adopted this approach to some extent, but capped the

landowners contribution at $740 million, and it is applying that revenue to its own 16.1% shareof the construction costs. Loudoun has not taken any such steps. Among the several

approaches to generating this needed revenue, we believe the use of Tax Increment Financing

(TIF) may be most effective. In brief, it taxes the incremental gain in property value of

landowners in the affected areas at a higher rate to generate required revenues. Aside from the

fairness of this overall approach, it offers the advantage that the two counties can borrow at

much lower rates than MWAA because of their higher credit ratings, lowering overall financing

costs for the line.

Dulles Toll Road users should pay the remaining one-third of the otherwise unfunded costs ofthe rail line. At this time, that would lower their projected overall share of the cost of the Silver

Line from 54.5% to 26.5%--nearly in line with the 2004 FEIS 25% allocation.

In this arrangement, each of the three parties would be contributing about $1.5 billion (26.5%)

toward the currently estimated total cost of the Silver Line. These costs and shares would go

down to the extent that additional federal or state funding might be forthcoming. They would

go up to the extent that actual construction costs are higher than now estimated.

Current vs. Reston 2020 Proposed Metrorail Silver Line Funding Shares

Funding Current Current Proposed Proposed

Source Commitment Share_ Commitment Share__

--Federal $900.0M 15.7% $900.0M 15.7%

--Virginia $275.0M 4.8% $275.0M 4.8%

--MWAA (Av)

& Counties $1,431.7M 25.0% $1,517.3M 26.5%

--Station area

Landowners -0- 0% $1,517.3M 26.5%

--Dulles Toll

Road Users $3,120.0M 54.5% $1,517.3M 26.5%

$5,726.7M $5,726.7M


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Both RCA Reston 2020 and MWAA have

explored additional financing options

that could further reduce the funding

costs of local jurisdictions, landowners,and toll road users if implemented.

Ina paper published in April 2011on the

impact of the higher Metrorail

construction costs, Reston 2020

recommended:

Tolling the Dulles Access Highway as

hot lanes.

Increasing MWAA aviation passenger

and freight fees.

In a presentation to the MWAA Board in

April 2011, MWAAs staff offered several

ideas for augmenting funding sources as

well. These included aviation-related

options, options involving the toll road,

options involving the Commonwealth,

and options involving federal assistance.

None of the participants in the planning

of the Silver Line have pursued any of

the proposals identified above.

Early adaptation of the RCA Reston 2020 Silver Line

construction cost sharing allocation would help ensure

that construction of the Silver Line would proceed

largely on schedule at least as far as Dulles Airport. It

would mean that Dulles Toll Road users would be

paying a little more than one-quarter of the cost of the

Silver Line, consistent with the arrangement defined in

the 2004 FEIS. And it would mean that the entities that

stand to gain the most from the Silver Lines

construction and operation would be paying a fair share

of the lines construction cost. Rather than spending

other peoples money, MWAA, the counties, and the

landowners would all be paying an investors version of

user feessharing the cost to garner the long term

benefits. And none of this would prevent the federal

and state governments from living up to their earliercommitments, easing the burden on the other partners.

Stakeholders in rail to Dulles must more equitably

share the costs of the Silver Line or risk its construction

and its intended role as a major economic driver for

northern Virginia, whether or not PLAs are part of the

package.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/54320216/The-Impacts-of-Increased-Phase-2-Dulles-Metrorail-Construction-Costs-FINAL-04272011http://www.scribd.com/doc/54320216/The-Impacts-of-Increased-Phase-2-Dulles-Metrorail-Construction-Costs-FINAL-04272011http://www.scribd.com/doc/54320216/The-Impacts-of-Increased-Phase-2-Dulles-Metrorail-Construction-Costs-FINAL-04272011http://www.scribd.com/doc/54320216/The-Impacts-of-Increased-Phase-2-Dulles-Metrorail-Construction-Costs-FINAL-04272011


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Appendix: What are the economic benefits of the Silver Line?

The principal driver in moving forward with the construction of the Silver Line from the perspective of

the areas local jurisdictions has been the claim that it will stimulate economic growth and county

revenues. A secondary consideration has been greater use of public transit and the possible associated

reduction in road traffic growth and needed road construction and maintenance, which are largely

funded by the state.

The results of these studies have been diverse and the methods used in generating them controversial.

Some look at county-wide economic development; others look at county government revenue impacts.

None of them, in our view, provide a clear, well-supported argument for the positive economic impact

of the Silver Line.

In 2009,MuniCap prepared a county fiscal impact analysis(analysis of net county tax revenue

gains/losses) in support of the Tysons Task Force. It projected that the county would earn an extra $1.2billion in net tax revenues by 2030 and $5.3 billion by 2050. In a brief paper, Fred Costello, an officer in

the Fairfax County Federation of Civic Associations, and member of the Fairfax County Taxpayer Alliance,

pointed out that the study included only the continuation of current county road maintenance costs in

the area. It did not cover road improvements nor debt service costs for roads nor employee or some

new infrastructure operating costs. Now, the Planning Commission Tysons Committee is wrestling with

the need for more than $2.1 bil lion in road improvement (in 2012 dollars) and other infrastructure-

related costs in the Tysons area by 2030, meaning that the County is likely to be more than $900 million

in the hole if the balance of the MuniCap analysis is correct.

In 2011 and again in 2012, the Robert Charles Lesser (RCL) commercial real estate firm provided the

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors with a study andupdate of the impact of rail on its countyrevenues. Its update forecast a $386 million increase in tax revenues by 2040 from the arrival of

Metrorail in Loudoun. Tim Hemstreet, the countys administrator, noted in a letter forwarding the RCL

report to the Board that it did not include necessary capital investments (such as roads). It also

suggested the rail line would focus about 2/3s of the countys forecast development in the rail station

areas. RCLs report itself indicates that there is no evidence that such rail lines increase the overall

market, only that it increases development around stations. Tom Cranmer, a member of the Fairfax

County Taxpayers Alliance and a forensic economist, calculated that, with capital investments and

associated financing costs included, the line would end up costing the county a net $711 milliona

more than one billion dollar swing in the projected net fiscal impact for the county.

Dr. Stephen Fuller, head of GMUs Center for Regional Analysis, wrote in a recent paperin which he

projects that the Silver Line would add $25 billion to Loudouns economy by 2040. He forecasts that the

countys gross product would rise from $21.2 billion in 2010 to $51 billion in 2020 with the addition of

the Silver Line. By 2040, that figure would rise to $230.4 billion. Without rail, the countys gross product

would only reach $47.8 billion in 2020 and $204.8 billion in 2040.

Dr. Fuller is projecting a 9.2% per annum growth rate for Loudoun County through 2020 withMetrorail and 8.5% growth without, both more than double the growth forecast for Fairfax

County over the same timeframe. In the face of the weak national economy (roughly 2.5-3.0%

per year growth through the decade) and the expected impact of federal cost cutting locally, we
http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/fiscalimpactanalysis.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/fiscalimpactanalysis.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/fiscalimpactanalysis.pdfhttp://www.fcta.org/data/dulles-rail/updated-report-on-the-funding-of-dulles-railhttp://www.fcta.org/data/dulles-rail/updated-report-on-the-funding-of-dulles-railhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdfhttp://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdfhttp://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdfhttp://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdfhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45/2218/2012RCLCO%20Market%20and%20Fiscal%20Impact%20Analysis_201204131544249109.pdfhttp://www.fcta.org/data/dulles-rail/updated-report-on-the-funding-of-dulles-railhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/fiscalimpactanalysis.pdf


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believe real annual growth in Loudoun above 2% per year and inflation above 3% per year is

unrealistic.

Fuller also forecasts 7.8% and 7.5% annual growth rates with and without Metrorail respectivelyfor the following twenty years. These, too, are probably optimistic with real growth probably

less than 3% per year and inflation running at 3%/year or less.

We fail to understand why Fuller would forecast a 0.7% difference in Loudoun Countys average

annual growth rate this decade between Metro and non-Metro choices when the incremental

growth would only occur in the final two years of the decadeat most.

At the regional level, as recently as January, GMU CRA forecast the Washington areas gross

regional product to grow from $425 billion in 2010 to $774 billion in 2030. In this latest paper,

using year old data, Fuller puts those sums at $429 bill ion in 2010 and $1,138 billion in 2030

without explaining the $364 billion jump in the regions gross regional product forecastfor 2030.

These highly optimistic forecasts and unexplained changes erode the credibility of the latest report.

Reston 2020 believes that the Silver Line will enhance development opportunitiescommercial and

residentialand general economic growth in the transit-oriented development (TOD) areas along the

line. Those trends may extend beyond the TOD areas at a quickly diminishing rate, but we share the RCL

reports concern that the Silver Line will probably not stimulate large area (county or broader) economicgrowth. In fact, we believe it is an open question whether the economic gains made in the TOD areas

however modest will come at the expense of declines in values and economic activity over the

remainder of the larger areas. This outcome may lead to no net gain in county fiscal impacts as

economic growth merely moves to TOD areas and other areas stagnate or decline. In this regard, we

believe Reston is fortunate to be along the Silver Line and we anticipate the work of the Reston Master

Plan Special Study Task Force will help ensure that the rest of Reston beyond the TOD areas participates

in the corridors economic growth.

rail to dulles and "the highway of the one percent", rca reston 2020, may 9, 2012

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