racer: an innovative tool for guiding conservation in a climate-changed arctic
DESCRIPTION
Invited presentation at the 2013 annual meeting of the Canadian Society of Ecology and Evolution in Kelowna, BC.TRANSCRIPT
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Rapid Assessment of Circum-Arctic Ecosystem Resilience (RACER): An innovative tool for guiding conservation in a climate-changed arctic.
Canadian Society of Ecology & EvolutionKelowna, BC.
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May 14th , 2013
James Snider*, Peter Ewins, Martin Sommerkorn*Advisor, Conservation Science & PracticeWWF-Canada
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1. Conservation in a Changing World
2. Building “Resilience”
3. The RACER Methodology
4. Marine Case Study: Beaufort Sea
5. Terrestrial Case Study: Central Canadian Tundra
6. Current Applications
7. Lessons Learned
Outline
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Conservation in a Rapidly Changing World
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Conservation in a Rapidly Changing World
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Conservation in a Rapidly Changing World
Overland & Wang – Accepted, Geophysical Research Letters
Projections for the Future: Ice-free summers in the Arctic?
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Projections in Arctic Vegetation Change:
Distribution of vegetation:Observed Predicted
Pearson et al., 2013. Nature Climate Change
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How do we manage ecosystems under rapid change?
© Peter Ewins / WWF”
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Building Resilience
Ability of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure.
About maintaining/building
the capacity of systems
to adapt through change
(of the stability landscape)
Forward-looking, identifying
options for the future
(values, services)
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Building Resilience
Requires an understanding of system functioning:
Drivers and their
trajectories (physical,
biological, social)
Ecosystem processes
and their response to
change
What role these and
feedbacks between them
play in building resilience
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Rapid Assessment of Circum-Arctic Ecosystem Resilience (RACER)
Ecoregion-scale conservation planning
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Landform heterogeneity
Primary productivity
RACER: (1)_Mapping Sources of Resilience: Areas of exceptional productivity and diversity confer resilience to the ecosystem
Literature data
© naturepl.com / Martha Holmes / WWF”
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Asessing Persistence of Key Features:
wind surface temperature
soil moisture
nutrients ocean currents
sea ice
“DRIVERS”
An understanding of the functioning of a landscape / seascape that is not place-based, but process-based
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RACER Marine Case Study: The Beaufort Sea
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Drivers of an arctic marine shelf system:
Ingram et al. (2008)
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Assessing Persistence for the Beaufort Sea:21st century sea ice projections for the Beaufort Coast and Continental Shelf ecoregion
Huard, 2010
Be
Be
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Climate variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST); Salinity; Sea-Ice thickness; Sea-Ice concentration (SIC); Precipitation (P); Surface Air Temperature (SAT).Persistence index: H – high; M – medium; L – Low
* relevant for the Mackenzie plume is the precipitation over the watershed of the Mackenzie River, i.e. outside the Beaufort coast and shelf ecoregion
Assessing Persistence of Key Features to projected change for the Beaufort Sea Coast and Continental Shelf Ecoregion
Key Feature Main drivers Current biological productivity & habitat heterogeneity
Main changes to GCM climate variables
Assessed persistence of Key Feature’s future above-average productivity / diversity
Barrow canyon & polynya Benthic topography Seasonal Ice Cover Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
High productivity and benthic habitat heterogeneity; warm saline Pacific water incursions.
SST Salinity SIC
H
Mackenzie canyon
Benthic topography Seasonal Ice Cover Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
High riverine plume nutrient inputs & heterogeneity, with upwelling driven by currents.
SST Salinity SIC
H
1. Mackenzie recurring shoreleads
Benthic topography Seasonal Ice Cover Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
Low absolute winter productivity, but open water regime allows light penetration/biotic activity.
SST Salinity SIC P
H-M
2. Kugmallit canyon Benthic topography Seasonal Ice Cover Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
High riverine plume nutrient inputs & heterogeneity, with upwelling driven by currents.
SST Salinity SIC
H
3. Mackenzie plume Salinity Nutrients Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
High sediment-laden nutrient inputs, but low habitat heterogeneity. Water circulation patterns influence nutrient availability.
SST Salinity SIC SAT P*
H-M
4. Cape Bathurst slope Benthic topography Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature Nutrients
Habitat heterogeneity high, with resultant diversity of benthic fauna and current-induced nutrient availability.
SIC SST
H-M
Cape Bathurst-Amundsen Gulf polynya
Benthic topography Seasonal Ice Cover Water circulation/currents Sea Surface Temperature
Low absolute winter productivity, but open water regime allows light penetration/biotic activity.
SAT SST Salinity SIC
M
Continental shelfbreak and slope
Benthic topography Water circulation/currents
Low productivity currently in deep water, but very extensive high seabed habitat heterogeneity.
SIC Salinity
H
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Integrating RACER Results into Spatial Planning:
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Terrestrial Pilot Study Unit: Central Canadian Tundra
Raynolds et al., 2008
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Mapping Areas of Exceptional Primary Productivity:
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
10-year median of maximum summer NDVI
Significance calculated by highest percentiles for each bioclimatic subzone.
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Validation of remote sensing for primary productivity:
1. Overlay of percentiles with known areas of biological importance:
• Key Bird Habitat Areas
• Protected Areas
• Caribou Calving Grounds
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Remote Sensing Validation Part 2A:
CAVMVegetationClasses
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Remote Sensing Validation Part 2B: Landsat
Northern Land Cover Classification (Olthof et al., 2009)
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n = number of pixels% = percentage of total pixels
Fisher-Freeman-Halton Test, p-value = 0.000999alternative hypothesis: two.sided(Monte Carlo Estimation, s = 1000)
Statistical comparison of Landsat Landcover classification for significantly high NDVI pixels(relative to all other vegetated pixels within Bioclimatic Subzone #5)
Non-Sig Sig Total
Landsat Landcover Class (n) (%) (n) (%) (n) (%)
tussock graminoid tundra 62,538,979 29% 33,594 2% 62572573 29%
wet sedge 10,667,262 5% 28,686 2% 10695948 5%
moist to dry non-tussock graminoid / dwarf shrub tundra
19,066,292 9% 4,729 0% 19071021 9%
dry graminoid prostrate dwarf shrub tundra 6,259 0% 0 0% 6259 0%
low shrub (< 40cm; > 25% cover) 42,896,927 20% 168,375 12% 43065302 20%
tall shrub (> 40cm; > 25% cover) 14,980,136 7% 1,088,136 79% 16068272 7%
prostrate dwarf shrub 42,927,724 20% 3,403 0% 42931127 20%
sparsely vegetated bedrock 5,660,647 3% 736 0% 5661383 3%
sparsely vegetated till-colluvium 1,912,855 1% 1,348 0% 1914203 1%
bare soil with cryptogam crust - frost boils 3,509,303 2% 182 0% 3509485 2%
wetlands 9,383,754 4% 52,452 4% 9436206 4%
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Landform Heterogeneity: “Topographic Position Index” (TPI)
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Areas of Exception Landform Heterogeneity
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Validation of Landform Heterogeneity Analysis
Comparison with beta-diversity of Landsat vegetation classes
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Drivers of terrestrial arctic ecosystems
CAVM, 2003
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Drivers of Arctic Vegetation: Surface Temperature
Raynolds et al., 2008
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Drivers of Arctic Vegetation: Precipitation/Snow
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Step 2: Vulnerability/Persistence Analyses Global Climate Modeling
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Assessing Persistence for the Central Canada Ecoregion:Climate projections for precipitation & temperature
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Current Applications: RACER in Antarctica
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Assessing Suitability of Terrestrial Remote Sensing
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Lessons Learned
1) Reframing the conservation target• Focus on nature’s potential to provide species• The “new” normal - may mean tough conservation decisions
(e.g. assisted migration, triage, accepting invasive species)
2) Get comfortable with uncertainty• Mis-matched rate of development & scientific rigor
3) From ecological to social-ecological • We manage people not ecological processes• Emphasize benefits of well functioning natural systems on humans
4) Tools inform decision making*Ideally imbedded with formal institutional structures.. (e.g spatial planning initiatives)
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Thank you!
More on RACER? Panda.org/arctic/racer
jsnider@wwfcanada
@snider_james