Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass

Comparative analysis IPCC GPG 2003 vs IPCC AFOLU 2006

March 2012

Raul Abad Viñas

JRC – Joint Research Centre

IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Air and Climate Unit

Ispra - Italy

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Current EDGAR Project team: G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean, A.M.R. Petrescu, R. Abad-Viñas, A. Hajdu, A. Meijide, V.Pagliari, D. Guizzardi, J Wilson, J. Olivier (PBL), J. Peters (PBL)

1. Introduction

2. Brief evolution of the IPCC methodologies

3. Overview of the IPCC GPG 2003 and IPCC AFOLU 2006 methodologies

4. Results

5. Conclusions

2

Summary

Introduction

3

EDGAR

The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research is a database that provides global anthropogenic emissions trends from 1970 onwards of greenhouse gases and air pollutants by country using harmonized

methodologies across countries

The new version v4.3 extends the current emissions database with, among others an additional subsector: LULUCF

Why this study?

The aim of this study is comparing the IPCC 2003 (LULUCF) and the IPCC 2006 (AFOLU) by calculating the Carbon (C) stock changes in living forest biomass and

selecting the most suitable for EDGAR

4

Evolution of Guidelines for National GHG Inventories from 1995 to 2006

1995 Guidelines for national

Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Revised 1996 Guidelines for

Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty

Management in National GHG

Inventories,2000

Good Practice Guidance for Land-

use, Land Use Change and Forestry,2003

IPCC 2006 Guidelines for

National Greenhouse Gas

Inventories, 2006

Guidance used for reporting

to UNFCCC

5

Evolution of Guidelines for National GHG Inventories from 1995 to 2006

LUCF AFOLU LULUCF

Revised 1996 Guidelines for

Greenhouse Gas Inventories

IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National

Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2006

Good Practice Guidance for Land-

use, Land Use Change and Forestry,2003

Land Use Change & Forestry

– Identifies major land use sources

Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry

– Expanded Guidance covering all carbon stocks

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

- Now Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) are integrated, but essentially the remains the same approach. – Extended default values & some improved methods - Adopted at Durban meeting, December 2011

The general approach remains the same from 1996 Guidelines throughout GPG LULUCF 2003 and AFOLU 2006

6

Overview of the methodologies

2006 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories

Volume 4: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use.

Chapter 4 : Forest land - 4.2 Forest land Remaining Forest Land

- 4.2.1 Biomass (living)

- Tier 1

2003 Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF

Chapter 3: LUCF Sector Good Practice Guidance.

- 3.2 Forest land

- 3.2.1 Forest Land Remaining Forest Land

- 3.2.1.1 Change in Carbon Stock in Living Biomass

- Tier 1

For EDGAR prevails global coverage, managed and unmanaged areas are considered

For UNFCCC reporting only managed areas are considered

7

Overview of the methodologies

Gain-Loss Method Stock Difference Method

Living Biomass

Disturbances

C u

pta

ke

thro

ug

h G

ro

wth

Harvest

Carbon Stock

Year 1

Carbon Stock Year 2

Require accurate forest inventories

More suitable to higher tiers

Default values Consistent treatment

for all countries Less detailed and accurate

Forest fires Diseases

8

Overview of the methodologies

Data are presented for each country in 4 different subsets for 1990-2000-2005-2010

1. Gains – Biomass growth Gain-Loss Method

2. Harvest - Biomass removals (roundwood + fuelwood) Gain-Loss Method

3. Forest Fires – Biomass burned Gain-Loss Method

4. Net Deforestation – Annual loss of forest area Stock Difference

Method

Branches and leaves 18-21% -----------------------------------------

9

Trunk 40-50% ------------------------------------

Bark 10-15% -----------------------------------------

Roots 25-30% --------------------------------

Overview of the methodologies

1. Gains

10

ANNUAL INCREASE IN BIOMASS CARBON STOCKS

ΔCG =Σi,j(Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)

ΔCG = annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass growth by vegetation type and climatic zone, tonnes C/yr

A = forest area, ha (from GEZ FAO map and GLC 2000 map) Gtotal= average annual biomass growth, tonnes dry matter/ha yr

i = vegetation type j = climate zone CF= carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C /tonnes dry matter.

Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}

GW= average annual above-ground biomass growth by vegetation type and climatic zone, tonnes dry matter /ha yr (table 4.9 IPCC 2006 and table 3A.1.5 IPCC2003) R = ratio of below-ground biomass to above-ground biomass for a specific vegetation type.

Overview of the methodologies

11

1. Gains - Main Changes

AFOLU 2006

ΔCG = Σi,j (Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)

Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}

For Tier 1 approach: no change of below-ground biomass is assumed

R=0

Default value of Carbon = 0.47 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter.

GW is specified per climatic zone and

forest type with many detailed categories

ΔCG = Σi,j (Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)

Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}

LULUCF 2003

R, ratio of below to above-ground biomass, mean value =0.29

Default value of Carbon = 0.50 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter.

GW is specified for less detailed

climatic zones and vegetation types, leading to more assumptions

Overview of the methodologies

2. Harvest

• Loss harvest = annual carbon loss due to wood removals, tonnes C/yr

• Rw = annual roundwood removals, m3 /yr (data from FORESTAT)

• Fw = annual fuelwood removals, m3 /yr (data from FORESTAT)

• BCEFr = biomass conversion and expansion factor for conversion of wood removals volume to total biomass removals (including bark). tonnes dry matter/m3

• R = ratio of below-ground biomass to above-ground biomass for a specific vegetation type.

• CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter

12

Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BCEFr x (1+R) x CF

ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS OF WOOD REMOVALS

Overview of the methodologies

2. Harvest - Main Changes

Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BCEFr x (1+R) x CF

AFOLU 2006

For Tier 1 approach: no change of below-ground biomass is assumed.

R=0

Default value of Carbon = 0.47 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter

To convert FORESTAT RW data without

bark into over bark, use default expansion factor 1.15

BCEFr is specified per climatic zone and forest type with many detailed

categories

LULUCF 2003

Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BEF2 x D x CF

R, ratio of below to above-ground biomass is not considered in Loss

harvest. Inconsistent treatment of R

Default value of Carbon = 0.50 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter

To convert FORESTAT RW data without

bark into over bark, use default expansion factor 1.12

(expert judgment)

Use BEF2 x D is specified for less detailed climatic zones and vegetation

types, leading to more assumptions

Overview of the methodologies

14

3. Forest Fires

Loss forest fires = Biomass burned X CF

ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS DUE TO FOREST FIRES

Biomass burned = from Global Fires Emission Database (GFED v.3), tonnes dry matter/yr (Van der Werf et al., 2010)

CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter

Overview of the methodologies

15

4 . Net Deforestation

Loss Net Deforestation = AGbi,j x Forest area changei,j x CF

ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS DUE TO DEFORESTATION

AGb = Above–Ground Biomass in forest by vegetation type and climatic zone tonnes dry matter/ha

(Table 4.7 IPCC2006 and table3A 1.2 IPCC2003) Forest area change in ha by vegetation type and climatic zone (from GEZ FAO map and GLC 2000 map). i = vegetation type j = climate domain CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter

Overview of the methodologies

16

Gains

Major difference is introduced by

considering R in IPCC 2003

Russia, North America

and South America show the highest gains

(Russia, Brasil, Canada, EEUU, =48% total forest Area)

Results

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

1990

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2000

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2005

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2010

Gt

C y

r -

1

17

Harvest

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

1990

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2000

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2005

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2010

Minor differences IPCC 2003/2006

because input harvest data

are the same.

Differences are introduced by BCEFr

vs BEF2 X D

Africa and South Asia show the highest

harvest (Mainly Fuelwood removals, 5 countries =25% of total

wood removal )

Results G

t C

yr -

1

18

Forest Fires

Gt

C y

r -

1

1990 2000 2005 2010

No differences between both

approaches, same input data is used.

The changes along

the years are influenced

by climate, forest practices, etc

Van der Werf et al., 2010. GEFDv3.: http://www.falw.vu/~gwerf/GFED/

Results

19

Net Deforestation

Gt

C y

r -

1

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

1990

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2000

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2005

IPCC IPCC 2003 2006

2010

Small differences are introduced by

default values AGb.

South America, Africa and Asia

show the highest losses.

(mainly Brasil ,Indonesia, Sudan, Nigeria)

Lower losses for

South Asia 2005-2010,

partly as a result REDD

mechanisms.

Results

20

Results overview

Gains -1.59

Harvest 0.68

Fires 0.11

Net D. 0.02

IPCC 2006 AFOLU

Balance -0.78 GT C yr-1

Annex I (2005)

Harvest 2.84

Gains -2.24

Fires 0.13

Net D. 1.24

IPCC 2006 AFOLU

Non Annex I (2005)

Conclusions

21

The use of different IPCC guidelines leads to different results.

There is a systematic overestimation of IPCC 2003 calculations in comparison to IPCC 2006.

Mainly due to treatment of the roots. Partly due to differences in default factors (AGb, BEF, D, AGbg).

High uncertainties associated with IPCC 2003 default values.

IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR v4.3 and provide a consistent global picture of C stock change.

IPCC 2006 is consistent in not using R in Tier 1 either Gains and Harvest. IPCC 2006 presents the data with more detailed disaggregation, by climatic zone and vegetation type, and as such a more representative global coverage.

Thanks for your attention!