Quick History and Notable Successes in Aviation Weather Safety

National Center for Atmospheric Research February 23, 2016

Dr. Bruce Carmichael Director, Aviation Applications Program

PRESENTATION NAME

Microburst  wind  shear  is  a  significant  hazard  to  avia5on,  as  it  causes  rapid  changes  in  airspeed,  making  takeoffs  and  landings  extremely  dangerous,  some5mes  deadly.  This  video  illustrates  strong  downdra@s  and  ouAlows  associated  with  microbursts.  

Delta  191,  Dallas,  Texas  -­‐  August  31,  1988.  Source:  Dallas  News  

In  the  1980s,  NCAR  led  research  on  microbursts  to  understand  their  causes,  characteris5cs,  and  how  they  impacted  aircra@  performance.  This  led  to  the  development  of  an  anemometer-­‐based  wind  shear  detec5on  system  called  the  Low-­‐Level  Wind  Shear  Alert  System  (LLWAS).  

In  addi5on  to  LLWAS,  a  weather  radar-­‐based  wind  shear  detec5on  system  called  the  Terminal  Doppler  Weather  Radar  (TDWR)  was  developed  by  NCAR  and  MIT  Lincoln  Laboratory.  TDWR  radars  were  installed  at  50  US  airports  and  other  radar-­‐based  wind  shear  systems  have  been  deployed  interna5onally.  Wind  shear  system  training  and  detec5on  have  significantly  reduced  wind  shear  related  accidents.  

Commercial  avia5on  has  become  an  exceedingly  safe  enterprise,  with  very  few  accidents  due    to  weather  or  non-­‐weather  causes.  This  has  made  it  possible  to  begin  to  address  other  problems  in  the  system,  such  as  delays,  capacity,  efficiency,  and  emissions.  

•  Mo5va5on:    70%  of  airline  delays  are  due  to  weather,  $26B  in  annual  domes5c  cost  -­‐-­‐-­‐Two-­‐thirds  thought  to  be  avoidable  

•  Federal  government  designing  Next  Genera5on  Air  Transporta5on  System  (NextGen)  –  Federal  Government  is  execu5ng  a  na5onal  plan;  it  can’t  work  without  beber  

weather  informa5on  –  Integra5on  of  air  traffic  management  with  weather  informa5on    

Safety  is  always  the  controlling  objec5ve.  The  problem  is  how  to  achieve  safety  while  reducing  delays,  increasing  capacity,  and  improving  efficiency.  Thus  we  have  to  do  a  beber  job  of  precision  forecas5ng  the  various  weather  hazards  to  a  flight.  

   

NextGen  Weather  

High  Ice  Water  Content  Engine  Icing  –    Newer  high  efficiency  engines  tend  to  be  suscep5ble.  This  is  a  global  problem.  

Global Distribution of Engine Icing Events Based on 67 engine icing events analyzed by Boeing

High Ice Water Content -

HIWC

Reliable  detec5on  of  hazardous  weather  and  predic5ons  several  hours  in  advance  are  essen5al  for  avia5on  users  to  achieve  safe  and  efficient  use  of  airspace  in  the  presence  of  storms.  Collabora5ve  R&D  has  produced  a  highly  accurate  zero  to  eight  hour  forecast  that  is  currently  being  implemented.  

Lightning  Threats  to  Airport  Opera5ons.  Not  only  is  it  a  threat  to  worker  safety,    but  makes  system  performance  much  less  predictable.  

Ramp  lightning  happens.  

Encounters  with  turbulence  pose  significant  safety,  efficiency,  and  workload  issues.  The  number  of  pilot–reported  encounters  with  turbulence  is  substan5al.  Turbulence  accounts  for  approximately  75%  of  all  weather–related  accidents  and  incidents.  The  cost  to  US  airlines  due  to  injuries,  cabin  and  aircra@  damage,  flight  delays,  and  5me  lost  to  inspec5on/maintenance  is  remarkable.  

Turbulence Guidance

-­‐  Juneau  Airport  Wind  System  (JAWS)  started  in  1997.  -­‐  Response  to  severe  turbulence  incidents  depar5ng  the  Juneau  Airport.  

-­‐  Juneau  System  generates  turbulence  alerts  for  hazardous  areas.    -­‐  Alerts  give  pilots  an  indica5on  of  overall  flight  safety.  -­‐  Transferred  to  the  FAA  in  2012  for  opera5on  and  maintenance.  

Weather  Technology  in  the  Cockpit.  Commercial  avia5on  is  moving  forward  with  displays  like  this.  

iPad  shown  on  Lu@hansa  Airbus  with  NCAR-­‐uplinked  weather  

Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)

Developed by the research community with FAA funding, this system is operated by the Aviation Weather Center of NOAA. The Web site now serves over 20M hits per day, to support >500K visits, and >300GB of data, and serves as the spigot through which the best in aviation weather information is accessible.

-­‐  Long  History  Serving  the  Avia5on  Community.  -­‐  Fundamental  improvements  in  understanding  of  avia5on  weather  

hazards.  -­‐  Broad  array  of  tools  and  systems  that  reduce  the  vulnerability  to  weather.