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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 A report for the DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND PUBLIC WORKS Prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ABN: 72 006 234 626 416 Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria, 3068 Telephone: (03) 9488 8444; Facsimile: (03) 9482 3262 Email: [email protected] October 2014 PJB1153-QDH&PW-September quarter/QldDPW/2014/September

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Page 1: Queensland and Queensland region construction …...unemployment rate that have occurred 2014 likely to continue. This will ensure that whatever This will ensure that whatever acceleration

Queensland and Queensland

region construction activity:

Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

A report for the

DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND PUBLIC WORKS

Prepared by the

National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR)

ABN: 72 006 234 626

416 Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria, 3068

Telephone: (03) 9488 8444; Facsimile: (03) 9482 3262

Email: [email protected]

October 2014

PJB1153-QDH&PW-September quarter/QldDPW/2014/September

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While the National Institute endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.

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Contents

Page no.

1. Introduction 1

1.1 Revisions to data and price base 1 1.2 The world and Australian economy 1 1.3 The national economy 2 1.4 The Queensland economy 3 1.5 Queensland construction forecasts 4

2. Private residential construction 8

2.1 Dwelling investment 8

3. Non-residential building 14

4. Engineering construction 19

5. Total construction activity and the regional pattern 22

6. Prices and labour shortages 25

7. The regional dimension 27

7.1 Regional construction activity profile – Brisbane 27 7.2 Regional construction activity profile – Gold Coast 27 7.3 Regional construction activity profile – Sunshine Coast 28 7.4 Regional construction activity profile – West Moreton 28 7.5 Regional construction activity profile – Darling Downs 29 7.6 Regional construction activity profile – Northern region 29 7.7 Regional construction activity profile – the Far North region 30 7.8 Regional construction activity profile – Wide Bay Burnett region 30

Appendix A: Detailed tables – 2009.3 to 2016.2 38

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List of tables

Page no.

1. Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth 5 2. Contribution to growth 6 3. Total construction – average annual growth rates by Queensland regions 6 4. Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2015 6 5. Queensland construction – Annual growth and % contribution to construction activity by major construction segment 7 6. Queensland population by region 7 7. Value of work done: Residential new construction (including major additions) by region 11 8. Value of work done: Residential other renovations by region 12 9. Value of work done: Private residential building by region 13 10. Value of work done: Non-residential building by region 18 11. Value of work done: Total engineering construction activity by region 21 12. Value of work done: Total construction activity by region ($ million) 23 13. Value of work done: Total construction activity by region 24 14. Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth at annual rates 26 15. Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region 26 16. Formation of construction in Brisbane 31 17. Formation of construction in Gold Coast 31 18. Formation of construction in Sunshine Coast 32 19. Formation of construction in West Moreton 32 20. Formation of construction in Wide Bay Burnett 33 21. Formation of construction in Darling Downs 33 22. Formation of construction in South West 34 23. Formation of construction in Fitzroy 34 24. Formation of construction in Central West 35 25. Formation of construction in Mackay 35 26. Formation of construction in Northern 36 27. Formation of construction in Far North 36 28. Formation of construction in North West 37 29. Formation of construction in Queensland 37

A.1 Private dwelling value of work done: new construction (including alterations and additions) 39 A.2 Private dwelling: other value of work done 40 A.3 Private dwelling: total value of work done 41 A.4 Private non-residential building value of work done 42 A.5 Public non-residential building value of work done 43 A.6 Total non-residential building value of work done 44 A.7 Public sector engineering value of work done 45 A.8 Private sector engineering value of work done 46 A.9 Total engineering value of work done 47 A.10 Public dwelling value of work done 48 A.11 Total construction: value of work done 49

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List of figures

Page no.

1. Australia – Short-term international borrowing requirement to GDP ratio 2

2. Australia and Queensland GDP growth 3

3. Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals 8

4. Queensland established house prices 9

5. Queensland housing rental vacancy rate 9

6. Queensland – new dwellings 10

7. Queensland non-residential projects under construction, committed and under consideration 15

8. Queensland non-residential building approvals and work done 15

9. Queensland private non-residential building 16

10. Queensland public non-residential building 16

11. Queensland total non-residential building construction approvals 17

12. Queensland engineering projects under construction, committed and under consideration 20

13. Queensland total engineering – work yet to be done 20

14. Queensland total construction activity and Queensland construction industry 25

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

1

1. Introduction

This update is for the September quarter 2014. There is a complete set of data available for the March quarter 2014 for all building data. Engineering construction data is available for the June 2014 quarter. All years are in fiscal years so for example 2014 would refer to the 2013-14 fiscal year.

1.1 Revisions to data and price base

It should not be assumed that just because the data is available to the June quarter that this will represent the final estimate. Preliminary estimates are continually being revised, especially over the next two to three quarters and, from time to time, the historical data can be significantly revised.

It should also be noted that the price base is the 2011-12 year.

1.2 The world and Australian economy

The risks to the World economy and Australia can be classified under a number of different headings. Firstly, there is the global security deficit risk under which falls those factors which are leading to increased political and military tension between the major world economies. These factors are increasing and operate in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Asia. If these factors cannot be contained then there is likely to be major shocks to the world economy in terms of trade disruption, sanctions, investment barriers and a major diversion of resources to military arms build-ups.

The second risk is financial risk. The initial reaction to the GFC was a commitment to develop global based rules of financial regulation to stop the excessive borrowing, shadow banking and reckless lending that led to the GFC. Unfortunately, strong progress in regulation has been limited to unilateral actions and strong across-the-board financial market global solutions have proved elusive. Some believe that the financial instability associated with the GFC will be repeated over the next few years.

The third risk is the secular stagnation risk. The secular stagnation risk recognises that the developed world in particular is characterised by a liquidity trap situation where interest rates have fallen as low as they can go with the result that monetary policy is ineffective in stimulating aggregate demand. With governments unwilling to use fiscal policy because of (largely unwarranted) public sector debt considerations there are no tools available to bring aggregate demand up to the level that is necessary to restore confidence and high long-term growth.

In the case of Australia there is meltdown risk. A meltdown is characterised by an economy subject to firstly a balance of payments crisis, then an exchange rate crisis and finally a banking crisis. This risk flows from the fact that Australia’s gross international debt and short-term debt as a percentage of GDP are currently well in excess of the values that prevailed for those countries that have suffered a meltdown over the last 16 years. That is, the Asian economies in 1997 and the European economies in 2009. More importantly, the meltdown risk will increase significantly over the coming years as the current account deficit increases, debt to GDP ratios further increase and the difficulties associated with a significantly overvalued currency returning to more normal levels.

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

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Perhaps the best indicator of Australian economic vulnerability is given in Figure 1, as Australia’s annual foreign debt borrowing requirement or foreign debt of less than one year to maturity plus the projected current deficit less foreign reserves. This is currently running at a third of GDP, but at a purchasing power parity exchange rate of 70 cents to the US dollar it would be 43 per cent of GDP.

In the past, countries with rates above 25 per cent of GDP have been subject to exchange rate-balance of payments-banking crisis.

The fact that a large part of the foreign debt is held by banks, or approximately 30 per cent of total liabilities, means that the risk is that a banking crisis will be triggered by a balance of payments crisis.

Figure 1: Australia – Short-term international borrowing requirement to GDP ratio

The general economic outlook for the Australian economy is one where the trend rate of growth is below the historical benchmarks. Growth is high over 2015 and 2016, however, this largely reflects the high levels of mining investment and in particular LNG. Although the population growth rate does fall it is unlikely to fall to the levels required to prevent further steady increases in the unemployment rate, which reaches over 8 per cent by the end of the projection period.

1.3 The national economy

The Australian economy is currently growing at a quarterly trend rate of growth at 0.77% per quarter, or 3.1% on an annual basis. The next two years should see Australia’s economic growth averaging around 3.8% per annum.

Dwelling investment expenditure is projected to grow on average 8.2% over the next two years, due to population pressures. Non-dwelling construction is projected to decline by an average 2% per annum over 2015 and 2016.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Per cent

Per cent Per cent - at PPP exchange rate

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

3

The labour market is likely to continue to deteriorate, with the slow increases in the headline unemployment rate that have occurred 2014 likely to continue. This will ensure that whatever acceleration in growth occurs, it is likely to be a modest acceleration.

The projected recovery in the world economy is likely to be an essential ingredient for any acceleration in the Australian economic growth rate. This, of course, will depend on events in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

1.4 The Queensland economy

The latest data suggests that the underlying growth in the Queensland economy is running at close to 3.5% on an annual basis. Over the next two years, the annual growth rate is projected to average just under 4%. Dwelling investment and consumption are key drivers, with private consumption accounting for over 45% of the economic growth. Mining investment is slowing and the LNG construction phase is passed causing private investment to decline with an average rate of 15.7% over 2015 and 2016.

Private dwelling investment is projected to grow at almost 11% per annum over 2015 and 2016. The government sector has consumption growth averaging 2.2% over 2015 and 2016, but public investment is flat with a decline of 9.5% in 2015 and a counter-balancing rise of 8.9% in 2016.

Figure 2: Australia and Queensland GDP growth (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Per cent

Australian GDP growth rates Queensland GSP growth rates

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

4

1.5 Queensland construction forecasts

Based on the latest data, total Queensland construction activity increased by 5.6% over 2013-14.

In the June quarter 2014 Queensland construction expenditure declined by 2.8% compared to the March quarter 2014 after declining by 3.5% in the March quarter compared to the December quarter 2013. The projection for the September quarter 2014 indicates total construction expenditure of $14.8 billion a decline of 3.3% compared to the June quarter 2014. Residential construction expenditure grew by 2.1%, non-residential construction expenditure grew by 6.9% and engineering construction declined by 6.0% in the June quarter 2014 compared to the March quarter 2014. The projection for the September quarter shows residential construction growing at 1.1%, non-residential construction steady and engineering construction declining at 5.6%.

Non-residential expenditures remain relatively steady over 2015 with gains of just $18 million, for 2016 the growth in non-residential expenditures is 2.8% compared to 2015 representing $200 million. For private residential construction an increase of $1.2 billion in 2015 is followed by a similar increase in 2016. A $7.6 billion decrease in engineering construction expenditure for 2015 is followed in 2016 by a further large decline of $2.2 billion.

Over the 2014 and 2016 fiscal years Queensland construction activity is projected to decline by $6.4 billion. The average annual growth rate for total construction from 2012 to 2016 is projected at a decline of 0.3%, significantly lower than the average annual growth of 6.0% for the 1993 to 2012.

Compared to the previous report there is a 1.6% upward revision to the level of Queensland construction activity in 2015, which is consistent with the upward adjustment to the 2015 growth rate of 0.5%. For 2016 there is an upward adjustment to the growth rate of 2.7%.

Table 2 outlines the contribution of the various construction sectors to construction growth. The main driver for construction growth over 2013-14 was engineering construction with a $2.4 billion increase in expenditure. This represents 71% of total construction growth. Dwellings increase total construction expenditure by $0.6 billion and Non-residential construction increased total construction growth by $0.3 billion in 2013-14. In 2014-15 dwelling construction increases total construction by $1.6 billion whilst engineering construction reduces total construction by $7.5 billion. For 2015-16 dwelling construction contributes over $1.4 billion to total construction growth whilst the contribution of non-residential construction is a positive contribution of $200 million and engineering construction has a negative contribution of $2.2 billion, resulting in a total decline of $500 million in 2015-16.

Construction prices declined by 0.3% over the June quarter this followed a smaller decline for the March quarter 2014 of 0.1%. Prices are projected to average 0.1% growth through the projection period. Construction prices for housing declined by 0.3% and 1% for the March and June quarters respectively. Over the projection period prices for residential construction will rise by an average of 0.1%. Non-residential construction prices have declined for each of the last two quarters, the average decline in non-residential prices over the projection period is 0.5%. Engineering construction price growth has been positive in each of the last three quarters, on average over the projection period a slight rise of 0.4% is projected.

Queensland population has been growing at an average of 25,000 persons over the last eight quarters. In contrast the next eight quarters are projected to average just 23,600 persons. Queensland population is projected to grow by under 2% from June 2014 through to June 2015. The fastest growing regions are Mackay at 2.8% and West Moreton at 2.6%. However the regions with the largest increase are Brisbane with 41,000 and Gold Coast with a 13,000 increase in population.

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 5

Table 1 Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price changes (%)

2013-14 Sep.

2013-14 Dec.

2013-14 Mar.

2013-14 Jun.

2014-15 Sep.

2014-15 Dec.

2014-15 Mar.

2014-15 Jun.

2015-16 Sep.

2015-16 Dec.

2015-16 Mar.

2015-16 Jun.

Actual Forecast

Houses -1.1 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 0.8 0.7 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.6

Non-residential building -0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -2.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 -0.4

Engineering -1.8 0.8 0.3 1.0 0.9 -0.8 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5

Total -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

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6

Table 2 Contribution to growth

Dwelling Non-residential Engineering Total

Change $m 2012-13 -1010 -687 4238 2440 2013-14 633 293 2392 3355 2014-15 1592 18 -7523 -5934 2015-16 1426 203 -2152 -503 Contribution to growth % 2012-13 -41 -28 174 100 2013-14 19 9 71 100 2014-15 -27 0 127 100 2015-16 -284 -40 428 100

Table 3 Total construction – average annual growth rates by Queensland regions

1993-2013 2012-2016

Brisbane 4.6 -5.5 Gold Coast 3.8 7.0 Sunshine Coast 3.9 4.1 West Moreton 2.4 -0.3 Wide Bay/Burnett 2.0 0.8 Darling Downs 7.7 0.3 South West 20.2 -21.5 Fitzroy 12.4 0.5 Central West 5.6 3.6 Mackay 9.6 23.5 Northern 4.9 -5.0 Far North 3.0 2.3 North West 9.7 -10.5 Queensland 6.2 -0.1

Table 4 Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2016 (average annual $m change for span years)

Dwelling Non-residential Engineering Total

Brisbane 123 -210 -709 -797 Gold Coast 89 -39 -82 -33 Sunshine Coast 43 125 -192 -24 West Moreton 7 1 -3 5 Wide Bay/Burnett -11 0 9 -3 Darling Downs -2 7 259 265 South West 4 0 -44 -40 Fitzroy 54 38 1718 1809 Central West 2 -4 42 40 Mackay 20 -66 237 192 Northern 24 -15 156 166 Far North 26 -30 67 63 North West 3 1 115 120 Queensland 383 -192 1573 1763

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 7

Table 5 Queensland construction – Annual growth and % contribution to construction activity by major construction segment

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual percentage rate of change Dwellings 30.2 18.2 8.7 5.9 2.8 5.3 -0.6 -8.1 -1.4 -9.4 -4.3 -7.4 4.9 10.9 9.0 Total non-residential building 3.6 -4.4 10.3 5.8 24.8 16.5 5.1 8.5 4.2 6.2 -9.5 -9.1 4.3 0.3 2.8 Total engineering construction -4.7 16.7 -4.0 20.9 28.3 20.4 22.3 19.0 -5.1 22.0 44.5 12.0 6.0 -17.9 -6.2 Total construction 13.2 14.0 5.2 10.0 13.5 12.2 8.6 5.6 -2.2 7.3 19.5 4.2 5.6 -9.3 -0.9 Contribution to total construction growth Dwellings 16.3 10.2 5.1 3.3 1.4 2.5 -0.3 -3.1 -0.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.7 1.1 3.0 2.8 Total non-residential building 0.6 -0.6 1.5 0.8 3.9 2.7 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.1 -1.2 -1.0 0.5 0.0 0.4 Total engineering construction -1.4 5.0 -1.1 6.2 9.5 7.4 9.1 8.7 -2.3 11.1 27.3 7.9 4.0 -10.7 -3.5

Table 6 Queensland population by region (‘000)

2014.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2

Brisbane 2204 2214 2224 2234 2245 2255 2265 2276 2286 Gold Coast 547 550 554 557 560 564 567 570 573 Sunshine Coast 336 338 339 341 343 345 347 349 351 West Moreton 101 102 102 103 104 105 105 106 107 Wide Bay/Burnett 291 292 293 294 296 297 298 300 301 Darling Downs 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 South West 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Fitzroy 233 235 236 237 239 240 241 242 244 Central West 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Mackay 184 185 186 188 189 190 191 193 194 Northern 238 239 240 242 243 244 245 247 248 Far North 276 277 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 North West 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 Queensland 4729 4752 4775 4799 4823 4846 4870 4893 4917

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

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2. Private residential construction

2.1 Dwelling investment

The latest data indicates that for 2014 total private Queensland residential construction activity increased by 4.6%. This partially reverses the decline of 6.8% in 2013. This was the first positive growth after four years of negative growth.

For private dwelling expenditure growth of 2% occurred over the June quarter 2014. The June quarter level of $3,787 million the highest since September quarter 2011. For September quarter 2014 growth of 1.0% is projected.

In 2015 private dwelling activity is projected to exhibit growth of 11.1%. This is followed in 2016 with growth of 8.9%. A contributor to this will be the ongoing low interest rates. There is a slight downward revision in projected dwelling activity in Queensland for 2015 of 0.2%. For 2016 the projection for Queensland dwelling activity has been revised upwards by a similar amount.

In the March quarter 2014 new private dwelling construction decreased by 5.8% compared to the December quarter 2013, for the June quarter new private construction rose by 2.1% whilst other work done increased by 5.8% for the March quarter and fell by a further 1.9% for June quarter 2014.

The outlook for 2015 is steady growth for renovation expenditures of 8.3% and for 2016 further growth of 4.9% is projected. The new construction profile shows growth of 12.6% for 2015 and 11.2% for 2016.

Figure 3: Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals

500

1000

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2000

2500

3000

35002012-13 $ million

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

9 9 9

Figure 4: Queensland established house prices

Figure 5: Queensland housing rental vacancy rate

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000 2012-13 $'s

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5 Per cent

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

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Figure 6: Queensland – new dwellings

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 11

Table 7 Value of work done: Residential new construction (including major additions) by region– chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 971 1103 1243 1306 1260 1255 1289 1332 1296 1328 1356 1356 11.1 3.9

Gold Coast 195 219 225 262 279 302 330 357 360 380 397 404 40.7 21.5

Sunshine Coast 149 176 190 204 206 214 228 242 242 253 263 267 23.8 14.8

West Moreton 37 36 40 43 45 48 52 56 57 60 63 64 28.4 21.4

Wide Bay/Burnett 79 81 91 91 96 103 112 121 122 128 133 134 26.0 20.2

Darling Downs 105 105 114 112 110 112 117 123 121 126 129 129 6.2 8.9

South West 11 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 -5.1 28.7

Fitzroy 214 170 138 114 119 126 135 144 144 150 156 158 -17.7 16.3

Central West 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 132.2 61.6

Mackay 189 161 137 104 104 107 113 120 118 123 126 125 -24.8 10.8

Northern 104 102 109 110 114 121 131 140 140 147 152 153 19.3 17.1

Far North 69 71 72 65 77 89 102 114 118 126 133 136 38.4 34.3

North West 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 39.4 30.3

Queensland 2129 2241 2372 2422 2425 2495 2628 2771 2740 2844 2933 2954 12.6 11.2

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 12

Table 8 Value of work done: Residential other renovations by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 534 547 580 592 611 618 613 620 626 653 634 682 9.3 5.3

Gold Coast 206 210 221 225 230 231 228 230 231 241 233 250 6.7 3.8

Sunshine Coast 132 135 142 145 148 149 148 149 150 156 151 162 7.3 4.0

West Moreton 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 29 8.3 5.4

Wide Bay/Burnett 69 71 74 76 78 78 77 78 78 81 78 84 6.9 3.8

Darling Downs 45 46 49 50 51 52 52 52 53 55 54 58 9.7 5.9

South West 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 11.4 8.4

Fitzroy 46 48 51 53 54 55 55 55 56 59 57 62 10.7 6.5

Central West 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9.1 11.5

Mackay 45 47 50 51 53 53 53 53 54 56 55 59 10.3 5.6

Northern 59 60 64 65 67 67 67 67 68 71 69 74 8.3 5.2

Far North 69 71 74 75 77 77 76 77 77 80 78 83 6.3 3.6

North West 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 11.3 9.7

Queensland 1236 1264 1338 1365 1405 1416 1402 1417 1428 1489 1444 1553 8.4 4.9

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 13

Table 9 Value of work done: Private residential building by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 1505 1650 1822 1898 1871 1873 1902 1952 1922 1980 1989 2038 10.5 4.4

Gold Coast 402 429 447 487 510 533 558 587 592 621 630 654 24.1 14.1

Sunshine Coast 281 311 332 349 355 364 376 391 391 408 413 428 16.6 10.5

West Moreton 59 60 65 68 70 74 77 82 83 87 89 93 20.8 16.0

Wide Bay/Burnett 148 151 165 167 173 180 189 198 200 209 212 218 17.3 13.3

Darling Downs 150 151 163 161 162 164 169 175 174 181 183 187 7.2 8.0

South West 16 13 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 1.0 20.4

Fitzroy 260 218 189 167 173 181 190 200 200 209 213 220 -11.0 13.4

Central West 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 64.8 43.4

Mackay 234 208 186 155 157 160 166 173 172 179 180 184 -16.2 9.1

Northern 162 162 173 175 181 188 197 207 208 218 221 228 15.2 12.9

Far North 138 142 146 140 154 167 179 191 195 207 211 220 22.0 20.6

North West 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 31.7 25.5

Queensland 3365 3505 3710 3787 3830 3911 4031 4188 4168 4333 4377 4507 11.1 8.9

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update –

September quarter 2014

14 14

3. Non-residential building

Based on the most recent data for 2014, total Queensland non-residential construction activity increased by 4.3%.

For the March quarter 2014, the level of activity for the total sector was 4.5% below the December quarter 2013, for the June quarter there was a return to growth of 6.9% this was preceded by two quarters of decline. Private non-residential construction was steady over the March quarter 2014 compared to December 2013, stronger growth of 6.5% occurred over the June quarter 2014.

Queensland’s non-residential building activity is projected to remain steady over 2015 with growth of 2.8% projected for the 2016 fiscal year. Over the two years to 2016 public sector expenditure will decline by $79 million, whereas private sector non-residential construction expenditure will increase by $300 million in non-residential expenditure.

There has been a downward revision to non-residential total building activity of 0.6% in 2015. There has been a downward revision of 0.4% in the projected level of activity for the 2016 fiscal year.

Major new projects currently under construction are; the $61 million Brisbane State High School redevelopment, the $39 million Coomera Sports and Leisure Centre and the $21 million 12,500sqm transport and logistics facility in Ipswich.

In real terms over the last six months the value of non-residential building projects under construction or committed have risen by 1.2% or $25 million, projects under consideration have risen by 251.8% or $494 million.

Over the three months to June the value of non-residential projects listed as completed was $190 million. There was $121 million of new projects under construction, giving a net decrease of $69 million in projects currently under construction.

The major non-residential projects completed over the June quarter are; the $122 million Ipswich Hospital expansion, the $35 million Costco megastore at North Lakes, and the $33 million Arthur Gorrie Correctional Centre - cell upgrade program.

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Figure 7: Queensland non-residential projects under construction, committed and under consideration (at quarterly construction rates) – $ million

Figure 8: Queensland non-residential building approvals and work done

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Figure 9: Queensland private non-residential building

Figure 10: Queensland public non-residential building

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Figure 11: Queensland total non-residential building construction approvals

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Table 10 Value of work done: Non-residential building by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 846 753 757 816 893 883 790 804 828 897 889 905 6.3 4.4

Gold Coast 107 125 181 403 442 319 246 242 222 213 213 219 53.5 -30.6

Sunshine Coast 303 382 285 169 94 184 251 301 245 222 213 210 -27.1 7.1

West Moreton 15 19 16 10 6 9 11 13 16 20 20 20 -35.4 93.6

Wide Bay/Burnett 61 55 55 60 61 56 52 56 57 62 61 62 -2.3 7.5

Darling Downs 82 72 66 76 93 86 77 79 77 79 78 80 12.8 -6.3

South West 10 9 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5.2 6.4

Fitzroy 242 152 94 61 46 63 78 92 108 130 124 121 -49.1 72.5

Central West 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 -15.5 4.8

Mackay 75 62 72 71 61 66 67 72 72 76 75 77 -5.6 13.1

Northern 92 64 67 57 45 58 63 71 71 75 75 77 -15.0 25.5

Far North 28 35 46 48 44 52 53 58 56 58 60 63 31.1 14.5

North West 18 27 30 18 7 10 16 20 18 17 16 16 -43.7 29.4

Queensland 1884 1759 1680 1797 1801 1799 1717 1821 1781 1861 1837 1863 0.3 2.8

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4. Engineering construction

Based on 2014 data, total Queensland engineering construction activity increased by 6.0% over the previous fiscal year.

For 2015 it is projected that there will be a decline of 17.9% followed by a further decline of 6.2% in 2016. There is an upward revision in expenditure of 2.3% for 2013-14 compared to the level of activity expected in the previous bulletin and an upward revision of 7.3% for 2016.

In the June quarter 2014 the level of private engineering construction expenditure was $8.3 billion. For the 2014 year the growth was 7.7%. In 2014 public sector engineering expenditures declined by 2.8%. The profile over the next two years is one where private engineering expenditure is projected to decrease by 20.4% for 2015 and decline by 10.4% over 2016, and public sector engineering expenditure is projected to decrease by 3.4% over 2015 and increase by 13.6% over 2016.

The new major construction projects commenced over the June quarter were the $140 million Gateway Motorway South - Mt Gravatt-Capalaba Road widening and interchange upgrade, the $138 million Bruce Highway Upgrade, Vantassel to Cluden and the $25 million Dawson Highway, Kin Kora Intersection Upgrade.

In real terms over the last six months the value of engineering projects under construction or committed have declined by 4.4% or $600 million, projects under consideration have risen by 4.2% or $450 million.

Over the June quarter the value of engineering projects listed as completed was $3.6 billion and the value of new projects under construction or committed was $0.3 billion, giving a net decrease of $3.3 billion.

The major engineering projects that have been completed over the June quarter are; the $1.3 billion light rail network from Griffith University to Broadbeach, Gold Coast, Ergon energy’s $635 million supply improvements to various regions, intersection improvements to the value of $280 million at the corner of Mains Road and Kessels Road in Macgregor and the $195 million Gateway Motorway at Nudgee to the Bruce Highway.

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Figure 12: Queensland engineering projects under construction, committed and under consideration (at quarterly construction rates) – $ million

Figure 13: Queensland total engineering – work yet to be done

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Table 11 Value of work done: Total engineering construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 1807 1848 1660 1535 1567 1551 1349 1300 1155 1086 1038 1071 -15.8 -24.6

Gold Coast 399 390 350 325 348 354 296 274 252 249 246 259 -13.1 -21.0

Sunshine Coast 247 285 261 244 256 268 238 230 217 220 219 225 -4.4 -11.2

West Moreton 65 78 68 60 65 60 55 55 54 60 64 72 -13.4 6.3

Wide Bay/Burnett 197 188 163 129 99 187 181 172 156 149 137 144 -5.7 -8.4

Darling Downs 903 937 938 909 684 607 582 656 857 893 823 805 -31.4 33.5

South West 667 702 574 440 455 343 267 244 216 201 181 146 -45.1 -43.2

Fitzroy 4017 3970 3784 3528 3227 3282 3077 2967 3189 3555 3306 3067 -17.9 4.5

Central West 101 95 90 72 75 61 50 46 42 41 38 203 -35.3 39.5

Mackay 1640 1676 1602 1683 1661 1550 1478 1600 1259 958 837 800 -4.7 -38.7

Northern 288 254 233 220 234 262 235 230 221 471 519 532 -3.4 81.4

Far North 261 212 288 327 403 347 215 212 204 238 239 247 8.2 -21.1

North West 384 402 318 236 89 175 159 148 293 322 288 313 -57.4 113.0

Queensland 10974 11038 10330 9708 9163 9045 8183 8136 8114 8442 7935 7885 -17.9 -6.2

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5. Total construction activity and the regional pattern

Total construction activity was just under $64 billion in the 2014 fiscal year and is projected to average almost $58 billion over the next two years.

Over 2015, total construction activity in Brisbane is projected to decline slightly, a further decline of 5.6% is projected for 2016. In the Gold Coast there is a projected 16.0% increase for 2015, followed by negative growth of 7.2% in 2016. For the Sunshine Coast a decline of 4.1% over 2015 is followed by growth of 3.2% over the following year. West Moreton shows average annual growth of 16.3% for the next two years, while Wide Bay-Burnett is projected to grow by an average of 4.1% over the two years to 2016.

The Darling Downs should on average remain steady, whilst South West, Fitzroy and, Mackay regions are all projected to exhibit a decline over the two fiscal years to 2016. The Central West, Northern, Far North and North West regions are projected to have positive growth over the next two years.

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Table 12 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 4161 4256 4247 4255 4338 4313 4048 4064 3911 3971 3924 4024 -0.9 -5.6

Gold Coast 908 945 979 1215 1301 1207 1102 1105 1066 1084 1090 1133 16.5 -7.2

Sunshine Coast 831 978 878 762 706 815 865 923 853 851 846 864 -4.1 3.2

West Moreton 139 157 150 138 142 143 144 150 153 167 173 186 -1.0 17.3

Wide Bay/Burnett 406 395 385 356 334 425 423 427 414 421 410 426 4.3 3.9

Darling Downs 1136 1162 1169 1148 939 858 829 911 1109 1153 1084 1072 -23.3 24.9

South West 694 725 592 456 473 365 289 267 239 225 206 172 -43.5 -39.6

Fitzroy 4525 4347 4074 3759 3449 3529 3347 3262 3500 3897 3646 3412 -18.7 6.4

Central West 110 103 96 77 81 68 58 56 52 51 48 214 -31.5 38.1

Mackay 1950 1947 1863 1910 1880 1777 1711 1846 1504 1214 1094 1062 -5.9 -32.4

Northern 546 485 479 455 464 511 500 512 504 768 819 843 1.1 47.7

Far North 430 391 484 517 602 568 449 462 457 504 512 533 14.2 -3.5

North West 409 437 356 262 104 194 186 180 323 351 317 343 -54.6 101.0

Queensland 16244 16329 15750 15312 14812 14773 13950 14165 14084 14658 14171 14284 -9.3 -0.9

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Table 13 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2012-13 reference year – Qtr. 3 2013-14 = 100

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 98 100 100 100 102 102 95 96 92 94 92 95

Gold Coast 93 97 100 124 133 123 113 113 109 111 111 116

Sunshine Coast 95 111 100 87 80 93 99 105 97 97 96 98

West Moreton 93 105 100 92 95 95 96 100 102 111 116 124

Wide Bay/Burnett 105 103 100 93 87 110 110 111 107 109 107 111

Darling Downs 97 99 100 98 80 73 71 78 95 99 93 92

South West 117 123 100 77 80 62 49 45 40 38 35 29

Fitzroy 111 107 100 92 85 87 82 80 86 96 90 84

Central West 115 107 100 81 85 71 61 59 54 53 51 223

Mackay 105 105 100 103 101 95 92 99 81 65 59 57

Northern 114 101 100 95 97 107 104 107 105 160 171 176

Far North 89 81 100 107 124 117 93 95 94 104 106 110

North West 115 123 100 74 29 55 52 50 91 99 89 96

Queensland 103 104 100 97 94 94 89 90 89 93 90 91

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6. Prices and labour shortages

Recent growth in the labour-intensive dwelling construction sector has resulted in the first labour shortages since December 2011. For the June 2014 quarter Queensland had a construction labour shortage of around 2100 workers. The shortages will continue into 2015, for 2016 a return to labour surplus is projected as two years of decline in engineering construction impacts.

The labour shortage projected for 2015 is around 1,900, whilst the average surplus for 2016 is 5,000.

These small changes in labour supply means that construction costs are likely not rise over the next two years.

Based on the latest available Australian Bureau of Statistics figures it is estimated that for the September quarter 2014 there are 8,700 unemployed construction workers in Queensland, this was down 14% on the figure for same period in 2013. Just before the GFC in December 2007 the number of unemployed construction workers was around 3,700. Since then the number has ranged between 5,000 and 14,000.

The number employed in the construction industry in the December quarter 2008 was 246,000 the low point was the June quarter 2012 when 215,000 were employed in the construction industry in Queensland. The latest estimate for the September quarter 2014 is 227,000.

The implied unemployment rate for the construction industry for September quarter 2014 was 3.7%, the lowest since the June quarter 2013.

Figure 14: Queensland total construction activity and Queensland construction industry

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Table 14 Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth at annual rates (%)

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June 2014-15

September 2014-15

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March 2014-15 June 2015-16

September

Average 2013-14 and

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Actual Forecast

Non-residential building -3.1 -1.5 -8.5 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -1.6 0.7 -1.8 -1.6 Residential building -3.8 3.4 3.0 -1.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -2.4 -0.9 Engineering construction 4.2 3.7 -3.2 1.0 1.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.1 0.9 Total construction -1.3 2.5 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.1 -0.9 -0.5

Note: Real price/cost growth is the nominal rate of increase less the increase in the Queensland financial demand implicit deflator.

Table 15 Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region – number ‘000 (shortage is donated by (+) and surplus (-))

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

Brisbane -2.2 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -3.4 -5.9 -8.5 -11.0 -8.8 -6.5 Gold Coast -1.4 0.3 1.9 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.2 -0.9 0.2 1.2 Sunshine Coast 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.9 West Moreton -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 Wide Bay/Burnett -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 Darling Downs -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 South West 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 Fitzroy 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 Central West 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 Mackay 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.1 0.5 -1.1 -2.8 -3.6 -4.4 Northern -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 Far North -1.1 -0.3 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 North West 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Queensland 0.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 1.4 -2.4 -6.1 -9.9 -4.7 0.5 Trend Queensland construction workers unemployed (‘000) 12.1 10.0 10.0 10.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 12.1 11.6 11.9

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7. The regional dimension

The previous annual report gave a detailed analysis of the regional dynamics of Queensland construction activity. This update summarises those findings.

7.1 Regional construction activity profile – Brisbane

Table 16 indicates that, for the Brisbane region, since the beginning of the GFC in 2008, total dwelling construction fell by a cumulative total of $1.6 billion by 2013. This trend has now reversed, over 2014 total dwelling construction for Brisbane increased by $0.6 billion. The next two years should see a cumulative increase of $1 billion.

Over the next two years, from Table 6, Brisbane's population is expected to increase by 82,000. This accumulating pressure on the existing housing stock plus the fact that the Brisbane region is in balance in terms of housing affordability (defined as the ability of the average household to generate income from work sufficient to support a mortgage on new dwelling construction) has enabled the sharp increase in dwelling expenditure. As a result, there is a recovery of dwelling expenditure in 2014 of $630 million and an average of $530 million over the next two years.

The average contribution of total dwelling construction to Brisbane’s total construction growth rate will be 3.2 percentage points over 2015 and 2016.

Over the five fiscal years 2008-09 to 2012-13, Brisbane’s non-residential building expenditures fell by a cumulative $1.3 billion. The fall would have been greater if not for the public sector non-residential stimulus. The fall was driven by office project completions and for 2012 the winding back of the stimulus. In 2014 non-residential construction in Brisbane grew by $87 million, the first positive contribution in three years, adding just 0.5 percentage points to total Brisbane construction growth. The average contribution of non-residential construction to total construction in Brisbane over the next two years is 1 percentage point.

Engineering construction in Brisbane has been in decline since 2010, with a cumulative total fall of $2 billion, reducing total construction growth by an average 2 percentage points. Looking forward it is projected that the continued decline in engineering construction will outstrip the losses of the last 5 years, a further cumulative fall of $2.5 billion is projected over 2015 and 2016.

7.2 Regional construction activity profile – Gold Coast

From Table 17 it can be seen that the average annual decline in total dwelling construction expenditure over 2009 to 2013 was over $0.3 billion. This reduced Gold Coast construction growth by an average of 6.1 percentage points per year. Population is expected to grow by 26,000 over the next two years, this pressure has resulted in an increase of $230 million in dwelling expenditure over 2014 and should induce an increase in dwelling construction expenditure of around $366 million over each of the 2015 and 2016 fiscal years, contributing 10.5 percentage points to total construction growth in 2015 and 6.5 percentage points in 2016.

Over the fiscal years 2009 to 2013, total non-residential construction grew by a cumulative $71 million. However two of those five years showed significant declines in construction growth, 2010 with almost a billion dollars of mostly stimulus expenditure in non-residential construction completely countered the losses of the other years. Non-residential construction in the Gold Coast

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grew by $174 million in 2014, contributing 4.8 percentage points to total construction growth for the Gold Coast. For 2015 and 2016 the cumulative total growth for non-residential construction will be in the order of $53 million contributing an average 1.3 percentage point to total Gold Coast construction growth.

Engineering construction reduced total construction activity by $280 million over the 2009 to 2013 period. In 2014 engineering construction contributed 1.4 percentage points to the growth in total construction, with engineering growth declining over the 2015 and 2016 fiscal years, the contribution of engineering expenditure to total growth will be -4.7 percentage points for 2015 and -5.7 percentage points 2016.

Total expenditure will increase by 16.5% for 2015, as the increases in dwelling expenditure and non-residential building expenditure counters the decline in engineering construction. In 2016 the growth in dwelling construction is not large enough to continue to outweigh the further declines in the other sectors, leading to a decline in total construction of 7.2% for the 2016 fiscal year.

7.3 Regional construction activity profile – Sunshine Coast

The past performance and future outlook for the Sunshine Coast is similar to the Gold Coast at least in terms of dwelling expenditures. Between 2009 and 2013 total dwelling construction activity decreased by a cumulative $800 million. This reduced total construction growth by an average 5.3 percentage points annually. Over this period the population increase was almost 20,000. Hence for 2014 dwelling construction returned to growth with a $140 million increase in expenditure. The next two years will also have positive growth and contribute an average 5.4 percentage points to total construction growth.

The average annual contribution of non-residential construction to total construction over the 2009 to 2013 fiscal years was -0.7 percentage points. For 2014 non-residential construction contributed 39.5 percentage points to total construction growth, or $898 million more than the previous year. The next two years will decline by a cumulative $250 million reducing total construction growth for the Sunshine Coast by an average of 3.6 percentage points per year.

The profile for engineering construction in the Sunshine coast is that for the 2009 to 2013 period engineering construction grew by an average of $46 million per year, contributing an average 2.1 percentage points to total construction per year over that period. For 2014 engineering construction contributed 6.3 percentage points to total construction. However the next two years will see a return to declining engineering expenditures with a cumulative $156 million decline for 2015 and 2016.

For 2015 total construction for the Sunshine Coast will decline by 4.1 percent and for 2016 the growth in dwellings and the non-residential sector result in growth for total construction of 3.2 percent.

7.4 Regional construction activity profile – West Moreton

Population growth in West Moreton has historically been small in comparison to the rest of the state, with an average annual growth of just under 2000 per annum for the period 2009 to 2013, this growth is accelerating and will average over 2700 per annum for the 2014 to 2016 period. Consequently dwelling expenditures grew by a cumulative $10 million over the 2009 to 2013 period and will grow by a cumulative $54 million over the 2014 to 2016 period.

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In non-residential construction the growth in 2014 was $11 million this was the first year of positive growth since the stimulus year of 2009. The cumulative growth over the next two years is just $8 million. This contributes an average of 1.3 percentage points to total construction for the region over 2015 and 2016. Engineering construction grew by $26 million in 2014, contributing 4.4 percentage points to total construction growth. The average contribution of engineering to construction growth over the next two years is -1.8 percentage points.

In spite of the large contribution of the stimulus package in 2009, total construction in West Moreton declined by a cumulative total of $2 million over the 2009 to 2013 period. For 2014 the declines in dwelling expenditure were partially offset by gains in non-residential and engineering construction resulting in an overall $10 million decline. The next two years will average growth of around 8% per annum as the residential sector picks up in 2015 and all sectors return to positive growth in 2016.

7.5 Regional construction activity profile – Darling Downs

The Darling Downs, in comparison with the other regions, has a unique profile, both in terms of the immediate past and the immediate future. The dwelling and private non-residential building cycle has been, and will be to 2014, more stable than the larger neighbouring regions. All sectors experience positive growth over the 2009 to 2013 period. The average annual percentage point contribution of total dwelling construction expenditures on total Darling Downs construction activity over the period 2014 to 2016 is estimated at 0.7 percentage points.

Non-residential construction will have an average annual percentage point contribution of 0.6 to total construction over 2014 to 2016.

The construction of LNG infrastructure has impacted heavily with an average contribution to total construction growth of 20.7 percentage points for 2011 to 2014. The contribution to total construction decline for the final two years is an average of -0.6 percentage points

Total construction in Darling Downs is projected to grow by an average just under 1% over 2015 and 2016.

7.6 Regional construction activity profile – Northern region

Unlike Darling Downs, the impact of the dwelling cycle has been severe. The six years to 2014 have all had negative growth. The cumulative decline has been $314 million. The cumulative fall in total dwelling construction over 2009 to 2014 period has resulted in an average of -2.2 percentage points of total Northern region construction decline. However a return to growth in dwelling expenditure occurs in the two projection years with a cumulative growth of $200 million.

The completion of engineering projects leads to a negative 0.4 percentage point contribution to total Northern region construction activity in 2014 from engineering construction. Engineering construction should provide a positive contribution to total construction on average over the 2015 and 2016 projection years.

In the 2014 fiscal year non-residential construction contributed -18.5 percentage points to total construction in the Northern region. For 2015 a figure of -2.1 percentage points is projected as declines in non-residential construction activity will take almost $500 million from total construction levels over those two years.

Total construction in the Northern region declined by 19.6% in the 2014 fiscal year, for 2015 the growth is 1.1% and for 2016 as the engineering sector improves, there will be an increase of 47.7% in total construction expenditure.

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30 30

7.7 Regional construction activity profile – the Far North region

The far North region in terms of its economic base has been significantly adversely affected by the impact of the GFC in the so-called Dutch disease where the high exchange rate has adversely impacted on its non-mining trade exposed industries. As a result from 2009 to 2013 the average annual decline in total construction activity in the far North region is estimated at just over 4.3% per annum, an average of over $99 million per year. A return to growth occurred in 2014 and should continue into 2015 with average growth for total construction over these two years of 10%. However 2016 should decline by 3.5%.

Dwelling construction declined by $70 million in 2014 reducing total construction by 4.1 percentage points. Over the next two years dwelling construction will grow by a cumulative $265 million, contributing an average 6.8 percentage points to total construction growth. Non-residential construction also declined over 2014 reducing total construction by 1.7 percentage points. Non-residential construction will grow by a total of $79 million over 2015 and 2016.

Engineering construction grew by a total of $536 million from 2011 to 2014, contributing an average 7.7 percentage points to total construction growth in the Far North region. The next two years, however will have a total decline of $159 million. In 2016 engineering is entirely responsible for the declines in total construction.

7.8 Regional construction activity profile – Wide Bay Burnett region

Cumulatively, construction activity in Wide Bay Burnett declined by $341 million from 2009 to 2013. Falls in dwelling construction and non-residential construction contributed an average of -5.9 percentage points and -1.0 percentage points per annum to the overall decline. These were partially offset by the growth in engineering construction over this period which reduced the overall decline by an average of 3.4 percentage points.

In 2014 there was a 4.6% decline in total construction expenditure. Non-residential building was the only sector to show growth in 2014 and contributed 7.4 percentage points to the total. This growth was reversed by the declines in dwellings and engineering construction with negative contributions of 1.2 percentage points for dwellings and 10.8 percentage points for non-residential construction.

The average growth in construction activity over 2015 and 2016 will be in the order of 4.1%. The major contribution of 6.7 percentage points to this growth comes from dwelling construction. Non-residential construction dwelling construction will make a small positive contribution to total construction over the next two years. The large declines in engineering will not be able to offset the growth in the other two sectors.

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 31

Table 16 Formation of construction in Brisbane (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 1568 1007 281 228 138 267 -63 -424 42 -87 82 -1158 629 726 338

Total non-residential building 146 -99 359 -28 762 428 836 -9 -702 887 -245 -1241 87 199 148

Total engineering construction -98 559 -57 554 711 465 2202 1741 -518 -399 263 -953 -357 -1082 -1418

Total construction 1616 1467 584 754 1611 1161 2975 1308 -1178 401 100 -3353 359 -158 -932

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 17.2 9.4 2.3 1.8 1.0 1.8 -0.4 -2.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 -5.8 3.8 4.3 2.0

Total non-residential building 1.6 -0.9 2.9 -0.2 5.6 2.8 5.1 0.0 -3.4 4.6 -1.2 -6.2 0.5 1.2 0.9

Total engineering construction -1.1 5.2 -0.5 4.3 5.3 3.1 13.5 9.0 -2.5 -2.1 1.3 -4.8 -2.2 -6.4 -8.5

Total construction 17.7 13.7 4.8 5.9 11.9 7.7 18.2 6.8 -5.7 2.1 0.5 -16.8 2.2 -0.9 -5.6

Table 17 Formation of construction in Gold Coast (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 578 564 532 52 -108 140 -218 -255 -118 -819 -347 -173 230 424 309

Total non-residential building -4 9 73 151 -129 243 -331 132 841 -477 -433 9 174 436 -383

Total engineering construction -43 137 -22 115 138 198 488 166 -269 -172 80 -84 52 -191 -267

Total construction 530 711 583 318 -100 581 -61 42 453 -1469 -700 -247 456 669 -341

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 19.6 16.2 12.7 1.1 -2.1 2.8 -3.9 -4.6 -2.1 -13.6 -7.7 -4.5 6.4 10.5 6.5

Total non-residential building -0.2 0.3 1.7 3.2 -2.5 4.9 -5.9 2.4 15.1 -7.9 -9.5 0.2 4.8 10.8 -8.1

Total engineering construction -1.5 3.9 -0.5 2.4 2.7 4.0 8.8 3.0 -4.9 -2.9 1.8 -2.2 1.4 -4.7 -5.7

Total construction 18.0 20.4 13.9 6.7 -2.0 11.6 -1.1 0.8 8.2 -24.5 -15.4 -6.4 12.7 16.5 -7.2

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 32

Table 18 Formation of construction in Sunshine Coast (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 343 343 271 65 -211 1 32 -146 -119 -245 -185 -110 140 213 156

Total non-residential building -5 -6 70 -87 147 -52 -42 -7 5 -60 110 -132 898 -308 59

Total engineering construction -7 106 7 61 85 -206 237 173 125 877 -529 -416 142 -46 -111

Total construction 331 443 349 39 21 -258 227 19 11 571 -604 -658 1180 -140 105

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 19.3 16.2 10.6 2.2 -7.2 0.0 1.2 -5.0 -4.0 -8.3 -5.2 -3.8 6.2 6.2 4.7

Total non-residential building -0.3 -0.3 2.8 -3.0 5.0 -1.8 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 -2.0 3.1 -4.5 39.5 -8.9 1.8

Total engineering construction -0.4 5.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 -7.0 8.8 5.9 4.2 29.6 -15.0 -14.2 6.3 -1.3 -3.4

Total construction 18.6 21.0 13.6 1.4 0.7 -8.7 8.4 0.7 0.4 19.3 -17.1 -22.5 52.0 -4.1 3.2

Table 19 Formation of construction in West Moreton (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 40 25 25 51 18 0 -19 29 31 -34 -31 14 -47 52 49

Total non-residential building -1 -5 3 -2 55 9 -25 233 -167 -61 -18 -3 11 -21 36

Total engineering construction -7 11 -9 23 69 17 12 28 14 -18 -20 0 26 -36 15

Total construction 33 32 19 72 142 27 -33 290 -122 -113 -69 11 -10 -6 100

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 13.3 7.5 6.7 13.1 3.8 0.0 -3.1 4.9 3.5 -4.4 -4.7 2.4 -7.9 8.9 8.4

Total non-residential building -0.2 -1.4 0.7 -0.6 12.0 1.5 -4.0 39.1 -18.8 -8.0 -2.8 -0.4 1.8 -3.6 6.3

Total engineering construction -2.3 3.3 -2.4 6.0 15.1 2.9 1.9 4.7 1.6 -2.3 -3.1 0.0 4.4 -6.2 2.6

Total construction 10.7 9.5 5.1 18.5 30.9 4.4 -5.2 48.7 -13.7 -14.8 -10.6 2.0 -1.7 -1.0 17.3

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 33

Table 20 Formation of construction in Wide Bay Burnett (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 112 119 126 143 102 105 -23 -140 -30 -107 -159 -88 -19 110 100

Total non-residential building 42 -23 -1 48 104 -77 4 -20 173 -108 -109 -25 120 -5 17

Total engineering construction -90 69 -16 73 80 -34 21 -45 -36 43 150 161 -175 -38 -54

Total construction 65 164 109 264 287 -5 2 -205 108 -173 -118 48 -74 66 63

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 10.5 10.5 9.7 10.2 6.1 5.4 -1.2 -7.2 -1.7 -5.8 -9.4 -5.6 -1.2 7.1 6.2

Total non-residential building 3.9 -2.0 -0.1 3.4 6.2 -3.9 0.2 -1.0 9.9 -5.8 -6.4 -1.6 7.4 -0.3 1.0

Total engineering construction -8.4 6.1 -1.2 5.2 4.8 -1.7 1.1 -2.3 -2.0 2.3 8.9 10.2 -10.8 -2.5 -3.3

Total construction 6.1 14.5 8.4 18.7 17.1 -0.2 0.1 -10.5 6.2 -9.3 -7.0 3.0 -4.6 4.3 3.9

Table 21 Formation of construction in Darling Downs (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 76 70 0 72 86 35 -90 -64 123 80 -49 -43 -16 43 54

Total non-residential building 6 -5 -15 31 37 44 -70 -17 108 26 -60 12 68 38 -21

Total engineering construction -10 -8 -38 210 288 622 10 -102 -257 807 516 481 610 -1158 848

Total construction 72 56 -53 314 410 701 -150 -183 -26 913 407 450 662 -1077 881

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 7.3 6.3 0.0 6.5 6.0 1.9 -3.5 -2.7 5.6 3.7 -1.6 -1.2 -0.4 0.9 1.5

Total non-residential building 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 -2.8 -0.7 4.9 1.2 -1.9 0.3 1.7 0.8 -0.6

Total engineering construction -0.9 -0.7 -3.3 18.9 20.1 33.8 0.4 -4.3 -11.6 37.0 16.7 13.7 15.4 -25.1 24.0

Total construction 7.0 5.1 -4.5 28.1 28.7 38.1 -5.9 -7.6 -1.2 41.9 13.2 12.8 16.8 -23.3 24.9

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 34

Table 22 Formation of construction in South West (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 3 6 -3 2 4 5 0 -4 3 1 9 15 -14 0 10

Total non-residential building 5 -2 -4 2 17 -11 6 -9 22 5 -4 21 -20 2 2

Total engineering construction -10 -12 -17 4 6 99 386 56 -302 614 1857 249 -688 -1074 -565

Total construction -2 -8 -24 8 27 94 391 43 -278 620 1862 286 -722 -1072 -553

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 1.8 3.5 -1.6 1.4 3.0 3.0 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.7

Total non-residential building 2.8 -1.5 -2.5 1.6 11.8 -6.3 2.1 -1.4 3.1 1.1 -0.3 0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.2

Total engineering construction -5.7 -6.9 -10.7 3.0 3.9 58.2 146.1 8.5 -43.3 146.1 178.5 8.6 -21.6 -43.5 -40.5

Total construction -1.2 -4.9 -14.8 6.0 18.6 54.9 148.2 6.5 -39.8 147.5 179.0 9.9 -22.6 -43.5 -39.6

Table 23 Formation of construction in Fitzroy (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 64 78 28 9 80 161 53 -137 -79 22 117 243 -92 -103 103

Total non-residential building -23 -32 -28 -2 52 56 -34 71 -22 78 80 555 -380 -269 203

Total engineering construction -26 96 -30 306 594 740 -422 948 70 1649 7760 1929 1082 -2746 563

Total construction 16 141 -30 313 726 957 -403 881 -31 1749 7957 2727 610 -3118 869

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 5.8 7.1 2.2 0.7 5.2 7.1 1.6 -4.9 -2.1 0.6 2.2 1.8 -0.6 -0.6 0.8

Total non-residential building -2.1 -2.9 -2.2 -0.2 3.4 2.5 -1.1 2.5 -0.6 2.1 1.5 4.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.5

Total engineering construction -2.3 8.6 -2.4 25.1 38.7 32.8 -13.1 33.7 1.9 45.0 143.4 14.4 6.7 -16.4 4.1

Total construction 1.4 12.8 -2.4 25.7 47.4 42.4 -12.5 31.4 -0.8 47.8 147.0 20.4 3.8 -18.7 6.4

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 35

Table 24 Formation of construction in Central West (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 6 0 -6 1 2 -1 2 0 1 3 6 -5 -8 8 8

Total non-residential building -6 -1 1 1 -1 -4 4 -2 4 24 -21 3 -2 -2 1

Total engineering construction 3 -14 -15 6 4 5 6 -1 -2 25 86 129 30 -127 92

Total construction 3 -15 -20 8 5 0 13 -3 4 52 72 128 20 -121 101

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 5.2 -0.3 -5.4 0.7 1.6 -0.7 1.9 -0.2 1.1 2.7 3.9 -1.9 -2.1 2.0 3.2

Total non-residential building -5.4 -0.8 0.7 1.5 -1.4 -4.2 4.3 -1.4 3.7 20.8 -12.5 1.2 -0.5 -0.6 0.2

Total engineering construction 2.4 -11.4 -13.7 6.6 4.5 5.4 6.5 -1.1 -1.5 22.3 52.2 54.6 8.1 -32.9 34.8

Total construction 2.2 -12.6 -18.4 8.8 4.8 0.5 12.7 -2.8 3.3 45.7 43.6 53.9 5.5 -31.5 38.1

Table 25 Formation of construction in Mackay (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 37 49 21 107 133 80 37 -119 72 -99 -32 253 -54 -129 61

Total non-residential building 38 -3 -20 22 94 22 7 47 100 248 -373 219 -194 -16 35

Total engineering construction -11 63 -14 79 214 361 194 466 150 790 292 2410 1232 -312 -2435

Total construction 63 109 -14 208 441 463 238 395 322 940 -113 2882 984 -456 -2339

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 4.9 6.0 2.2 11.7 11.9 5.1 1.8 -5.2 2.7 -3.3 -0.8 6.7 -0.8 -1.7 0.8

Total non-residential building 5.0 -0.4 -2.1 2.4 8.4 1.4 0.4 2.1 3.8 8.3 -9.5 5.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.5

Total engineering construction -1.4 7.8 -1.6 8.6 19.1 23.1 9.6 20.6 5.6 26.5 7.4 63.3 18.4 -4.1 -33.7

Total construction 8.4 13.4 -1.5 22.8 39.4 29.7 11.8 17.4 12.1 31.6 -2.9 75.8 14.7 -5.9 -32.4

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 36

Table 26 Formation of construction in Northern (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 124 25 -10 134 116 64 51 -25 -39 -172 -52 -11 -15 97 104

Total non-residential building -113 -14 -55 48 23 254 -148 -5 187 -175 219 140 -452 -42 60

Total engineering construction -15 94 -30 112 309 -13 96 -118 100 -56 52 -9 -11 -34 783

Total construction -4 105 -95 295 448 305 -1 -148 248 -403 219 121 -478 21 947

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 9.2 1.8 -0.7 9.9 7.0 3.0 2.1 -1.0 -1.7 -6.9 -2.5 -0.5 -0.6 4.9 5.2

Total non-residential building -8.3 -1.0 -3.8 3.5 1.4 12.1 -6.1 -0.2 8.3 -7.0 10.4 6.0 -18.5 -2.1 3.0

Total engineering construction -1.1 6.9 -2.0 8.3 18.7 -0.6 4.0 -4.9 4.4 -2.2 2.5 -0.4 -0.4 -1.7 39.4

Total construction -0.3 7.7 -6.5 21.7 27.0 14.5 0.0 -6.1 11.0 -16.1 10.4 5.2 -19.6 1.1 47.7

Table 27 Formation of construction in Far North (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 48 75 79 113 123 106 112 -251 -128 -156 -21 -41 -70 120 144

Total non-residential building 46 7 15 74 -43 12 121 192 -248 65 77 -277 -29 49 30

Total engineering construction -27 49 -47 78 92 -17 14 19 -52 43 195 89 210 89 -248

Total construction 66 132 47 265 172 102 247 -39 -429 -48 250 -229 111 258 -74

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 4.0 6.0 5.8 8.0 7.3 5.7 5.7 -11.4 -5.9 -8.9 -1.3 -2.1 -4.1 6.6 6.9

Total non-residential building 3.9 0.6 1.1 5.2 -2.5 0.7 6.2 8.7 -11.5 3.7 4.5 -14.3 -1.7 2.7 1.4

Total engineering construction -2.3 4.0 -3.5 5.5 5.5 -0.9 0.7 0.9 -2.4 2.4 11.5 4.6 12.2 4.9 -11.9

Total construction 5.6 10.6 3.4 18.6 10.2 5.5 12.6 -1.8 -19.8 -2.8 14.8 -11.8 6.5 14.2 -3.5

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 37

Table 28 Formation of construction in North West (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 5 -1 -10 2 6 1 8 0 1 2 -1 -6 5 9 10

Total non-residential building 11 -3 -1 -10 4 9 4 -14 17 31 -13 30 14 -40 15

Total engineering construction -4 10 -32 8 77 227 -4 48 -96 213 209 251 239 -768 645

Total construction 12 7 -43 0 86 236 8 34 -78 246 195 275 258 -800 671

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 2.0 -0.2 -4.2 0.8 2.8 0.3 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 0.6 1.6

Total non-residential building 4.7 -1.3 -0.2 -5.0 1.9 3.1 0.8 -2.7 3.1 6.3 -1.7 3.3 1.2 -2.8 2.3

Total engineering construction -1.6 4.4 -13.1 4.1 37.8 78.5 -0.8 9.0 -16.8 43.6 28.4 27.0 19.8 -52.5 97.1

Total construction 5.2 2.8 -17.6 0.0 42.5 81.9 1.5 6.4 -13.7 50.2 26.6 29.6 21.4 -54.6 101.0

Table 29 Formation of construction in Queensland (CVM $m)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in:

Dwellings 3004 2360 1334 978 488 965 -120 -1536 -239 -1612 -663 -1110 670 1570 1446

Total non-residential building 141 -178 399 249 1121 934 332 591 318 482 -789 -687 293 18 203

Total engineering construction -344 1161 -321 1630 2665 2465 3239 3379 -1074 4416 10910 4238 2392 -7523 -2152

Total construction 2801 3344 1412 2858 4275 4364 3451 2434 -995 3286 9458 2440 3355 -5934 -503

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Dwellings 14.2 9.9 4.9 3.4 1.5 2.7 -0.3 -3.5 -0.5 -3.6 -1.4 -1.9 1.1 2.5 2.5

Total non-residential building 0.7 -0.7 1.5 0.9 3.6 2.6 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.1 -1.6 -1.2 0.5 0.0 0.4

Total engineering construction -1.6 4.8 -1.2 5.7 8.4 6.9 8.1 7.7 -2.3 9.8 22.5 7.3 4.0 -11.8 -3.7

Total construction 13.2 14.0 5.2 10.0 13.5 12.2 8.6 5.6 -2.2 7.3 19.5 4.2 5.6 -9.3 -0.9

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38 38 38 38 38 38

Appendix A

Detailed tables – 2009.3 to 2016.2

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 39

Table A.1 Private dwelling value of work done: new construction (including alterations and additions) – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1099 457 238 56 153 85 4 85 2 113 135 115 5 2546 114 2009.4 1156 465 240 60 160 101 5 84 2 126 140 118 5 2663 119 2010.1 1123 412 230 58 155 113 5 77 2 125 135 114 5 2555 114 2010.2 1246 424 256 65 168 137 5 85 2 138 146 123 6 2803 125 2010.3 1146 349 231 60 148 130 4 80 2 122 127 108 6 2511 112 2010.4 1133 300 224 56 137 123 4 83 2 113 115 96 5 2392 107 2011.1 1114 268 211 51 124 112 4 85 2 102 104 85 5 2269 101 2011.2 1055 226 186 43 108 96 4 82 2 90 94 76 5 2066 92 2011.3 1161 233 190 44 110 98 4 97 3 95 105 88 5 2232 100 2011.4 1071 207 169 39 96 89 5 100 2 91 102 90 4 2065 92 2012.1 1113 209 172 43 97 95 6 122 3 106 116 104 4 2189 98 2012.2 1115 209 174 50 99 102 7 142 3 125 125 115 4 2271 101 2012.3 1002 184 159 51 91 100 9 147 3 136 118 103 4 2107 94 2012.4 1043 191 167 56 98 113 11 179 3 167 126 102 4 2259 101 2013.1 983 183 153 52 93 112 12 195 3 180 118 89 5 2180 97 2013.2 960 182 148 48 89 112 13 219 3 193 116 80 5 2170 97 2013.3 971 195 149 37 79 105 11 214 2 189 104 69 5 2129 95 2013.4 1103 219 176 36 81 105 8 170 1 161 102 71 6 2241 100 2014.1 1243 225 190 40 91 114 6 138 1 137 109 72 6 2372 106 2014.2 1306 262 204 43 91 112 6 114 1 104 110 65 6 2422 108 2014.3 1260 279 206 45 96 110 6 119 2 104 114 77 6 2425 108 2014.4 1255 302 214 48 103 112 7 126 3 107 121 89 7 2495 111 2015.1 1289 330 228 52 112 117 8 135 3 113 131 102 8 2628 117 2015.2 1332 357 242 56 121 123 9 144 4 120 140 114 9 2771 124 2015.3 1296 360 242 57 122 121 9 144 4 118 140 118 9 2740 122 2015.4 1328 380 253 60 128 126 9 150 5 123 147 126 10 2844 127 2016.1 1356 397 263 63 133 129 10 156 5 126 152 133 10 2933 131 2016.2 1356 404 267 64 134 129 10 158 5 125 153 136 10 2954 132 Fiscal year 2010 4624 1758 965 238 636 436 19 331 8 502 557 471 22 10567 2011 4448 1143 852 210 516 461 16 331 8 428 440 365 21 9238 2012 4461 856 706 176 402 384 22 462 11 416 447 396 17 8756 2013 3989 741 628 207 371 438 45 739 12 675 478 374 18 8716 2014 4622 902 720 156 341 437 32 636 5 590 424 277 21 9163 2015 5136 1268 891 201 430 463 30 523 12 444 506 383 30 10319 2016 5336 1541 1023 244 517 505 39 609 20 492 592 514 39 11471

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 40

Table A.2 Private dwelling: other value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 605 253 160 25 81 48 4 49 1 46 67 84 2 1425 113 2009.4 677 284 178 28 91 54 5 55 2 52 75 94 2 1596 126 2010.1 668 279 175 28 90 53 5 54 2 51 74 92 2 1573 124 2010.2 684 285 179 28 92 55 5 55 2 53 76 94 2 1610 127 2010.3 641 267 167 27 86 52 5 52 2 50 71 88 2 1508 119 2010.4 633 262 164 26 85 51 5 51 2 50 70 86 2 1488 118 2011.1 665 183 115 24 74 71 6 54 3 35 49 60 2 1341 106 2011.2 736 181 114 26 79 83 7 59 3 35 49 59 2 1433 113 2011.3 808 194 122 28 86 92 8 65 4 38 52 64 2 1562 124 2011.4 714 199 126 26 80 76 7 58 3 39 54 66 2 1449 115 2012.1 727 233 147 28 87 71 6 59 3 46 64 77 2 1547 122 2012.2 662 220 139 26 80 63 6 54 2 44 60 73 2 1429 113 2012.3 603 195 124 23 72 58 5 49 2 39 54 65 2 1292 102 2012.4 585 201 128 23 72 54 5 48 2 41 56 67 2 1284 102 2013.1 530 193 123 22 67 47 4 44 2 40 54 64 2 1191 94 2013.2 550 205 131 23 70 47 4 47 2 44 58 69 2 1251 99 2013.3 534 206 132 23 69 45 4 46 1 45 59 69 2 1236 98 2013.4 547 210 135 23 71 46 4 48 2 47 60 71 2 1264 100 2014.1 580 221 142 24 74 49 5 51 2 50 64 74 2 1338 106 2014.2 592 225 145 25 76 50 5 53 2 51 65 75 2 1365 108 2014.3 611 230 148 26 78 51 5 54 2 53 67 77 2 1405 111 2014.4 618 231 149 26 78 52 5 55 2 53 67 77 2 1416 112 2015.1 613 228 148 26 77 52 5 55 2 53 67 76 2 1402 111 2015.2 620 230 149 26 78 52 5 55 2 53 67 77 2 1417 112 2015.3 626 231 150 26 78 53 5 56 2 54 68 77 2 1428 113 2015.4 653 241 156 27 81 55 6 59 2 56 71 80 2 1489 118 2016.1 634 233 151 27 78 54 5 57 2 55 69 78 2 1444 114 2016.2 682 250 162 29 84 58 6 62 2 59 74 83 3 1553 123 Fiscal year 2010 2634 1101 692 109 354 210 19 214 6 202 291 365 9 6204 2011 2675 893 560 103 325 257 23 216 9 169 239 294 7 5770 2012 2910 845 535 108 333 301 27 235 11 166 230 279 7 5988 2013 2268 794 506 91 281 206 19 188 7 164 222 265 7 5018 2014 2253 862 553 95 290 189 19 198 6 192 248 290 8 5203 2015 2462 920 594 103 310 207 21 220 7 212 268 308 9 5640 2016 2593 955 618 109 322 219 22 234 8 224 282 319 10 5915

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 41

Table A.3 Private dwelling: total value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1704 710 398 80 234 133 9 134 4 159 202 199 7 3971 113 2009.4 1834 749 419 87 251 155 10 139 4 177 215 212 8 4259 122 2010.1 1791 692 405 86 245 166 10 131 3 177 209 206 8 4128 118 2010.2 1930 710 435 93 260 192 10 140 3 191 222 218 9 4413 126 2010.3 1787 615 398 87 234 181 9 132 3 172 198 195 8 4019 115 2010.4 1766 563 388 83 222 175 8 134 4 163 185 182 8 3880 111 2011.1 1779 450 326 75 198 184 10 139 5 137 154 145 7 3610 103 2011.2 1791 407 300 69 187 179 11 142 5 125 142 135 6 3499 100 2011.3 1969 426 313 72 196 190 13 162 6 133 157 151 6 3794 108 2011.4 1785 406 295 65 177 164 11 158 5 130 156 155 6 3514 100 2012.1 1839 441 319 71 184 166 12 181 5 151 179 180 6 3736 107 2012.2 1777 428 314 76 179 165 13 196 5 168 186 187 6 3700 106 2012.3 1605 379 283 74 163 159 14 196 5 175 172 168 6 3399 97 2012.4 1628 392 295 79 170 167 16 227 5 208 182 169 6 3543 101 2013.1 1513 376 276 74 160 159 17 239 5 220 173 154 6 3371 96 2013.2 1510 388 279 71 160 159 18 265 4 237 174 149 7 3421 98 2013.3 1505 402 281 59 148 150 16 260 3 234 162 138 7 3365 96 2013.4 1650 429 311 60 151 151 13 218 3 208 162 142 8 3505 100 2014.1 1822 447 332 65 165 163 11 189 3 186 173 146 8 3710 106 2014.2 1898 487 349 68 167 161 11 167 3 155 175 140 8 3787 108 2014.3 1871 510 355 70 173 162 12 173 4 157 181 154 9 3830 109 2014.4 1873 533 364 74 180 164 12 181 4 160 188 167 9 3911 112 2015.1 1902 558 376 77 189 169 13 190 5 166 197 179 10 4031 115 2015.2 1952 587 391 82 198 175 14 200 6 173 207 191 11 4188 119 2015.3 1922 592 391 83 200 174 14 200 6 172 208 195 11 4168 119 2015.4 1980 621 408 87 209 181 15 209 7 179 218 207 12 4333 124 2016.1 1989 630 413 89 212 183 15 213 7 180 221 211 13 4377 125 2016.2 2038 654 428 93 218 187 16 220 8 184 228 220 13 4507 129 Fiscal year 2010 7258 2859 1657 347 990 645 38 545 14 703 848 835 31 16771 2011 7123 2035 1412 314 841 719 38 546 17 598 679 658 28 15008 2012 7371 1701 1240 284 735 685 49 697 22 582 678 675 25 14744 2013 6257 1535 1134 298 651 643 64 927 19 840 701 639 25 13734 2014 6875 1764 1273 251 631 625 50 834 12 782 672 566 30 14367 2015 7598 2189 1485 304 740 670 51 743 19 656 774 691 39 15959 2016 7929 2496 1641 352 839 724 61 843 27 716 874 833 49 17385

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 42

Table A.4 Private non-residential building value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 591 131 43 8 34 45 2 34 1 49 49 37 2 1024 80 2009.4 591 124 47 9 62 46 2 32 1 43 53 33 2 1045 81 2010.1 590 144 46 8 65 39 3 27 2 41 49 32 4 1051 82 2010.2 605 128 39 6 48 31 4 40 2 49 46 29 5 1031 80 2010.3 560 94 43 6 34 40 3 55 1 143 50 32 5 1064 83 2010.4 531 80 47 8 31 49 2 48 1 156 45 31 8 1036 81 2011.1 526 73 39 9 31 51 1 32 1 93 64 48 8 976 76 2011.2 730 88 30 9 32 54 7 31 1 56 86 60 8 1193 93 2011.3 747 80 47 7 26 50 9 35 1 39 63 40 6 1150 89 2011.4 693 88 63 8 23 44 6 44 1 48 90 39 3 1149 89 2012.1 622 97 95 8 21 41 4 86 1 62 91 38 5 1170 91 2012.2 560 76 83 7 15 34 7 113 1 70 56 29 5 1055 82 2012.3 615 60 57 5 12 34 10 132 1 77 34 23 4 1065 83 2012.4 618 86 45 5 15 39 11 134 1 83 32 19 3 1090 85 2013.1 612 112 40 6 16 60 7 168 0 84 51 20 10 1186 92 2013.2 601 108 32 7 31 81 5 192 3 71 62 20 17 1231 96 2013.3 505 93 284 6 44 75 5 162 5 52 54 16 15 1316 102 2013.4 500 91 350 5 37 59 5 104 4 44 42 19 24 1286 100 2014.1 567 142 251 5 36 53 4 64 2 59 43 30 28 1285 100 2014.2 603 354 128 4 34 51 4 37 1 64 40 32 17 1369 106 2014.3 658 397 59 4 30 53 7 25 0 57 33 26 6 1354 105 2014.4 667 282 116 4 34 58 8 44 1 54 35 24 7 1334 104 2015.1 603 211 167 4 35 57 7 60 2 52 37 24 12 1272 99 2015.2 608 204 201 5 39 60 6 73 3 56 42 26 16 1338 104 2015.3 608 186 190 7 39 59 6 80 3 58 47 33 15 1330 103 2015.4 646 180 189 9 41 62 6 92 3 63 55 42 16 1402 109 2016.1 649 180 181 9 42 62 6 90 3 63 55 43 15 1398 109 2016.2 667 184 178 10 43 63 6 90 3 65 57 46 14 1425 111 Fiscal year 2010 2377 527 175 31 210 162 11 132 5 181 197 131 13 4152 2011 2346 335 159 31 128 193 13 167 3 449 244 171 30 4269 2012 2621 341 289 30 85 168 26 278 3 218 300 146 19 4523 2013 2447 366 175 23 75 214 34 626 4 315 178 82 34 4572 2014 2175 680 1013 20 151 238 18 366 12 219 180 98 84 5256 2015 2536 1094 544 17 138 227 27 203 6 219 147 100 41 5299 2016 2570 729 738 35 165 246 25 351 10 249 214 164 60 5556

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 43

Table A.5 Public non-residential building value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 389 92 51 52 23 9 4 19 1 11 75 68 1 794 168 2009.4 380 116 46 22 47 24 5 27 0 21 119 43 4 854 181 2010.1 283 346 30 14 41 27 5 19 2 74 91 40 4 975 206 2010.2 255 461 22 12 33 27 6 20 3 95 66 38 8 1046 221 2010.3 384 451 27 14 29 29 9 29 5 90 47 40 13 1168 247 2010.4 566 218 32 11 31 23 8 30 6 52 34 36 10 1058 224 2011.1 599 32 28 9 37 20 4 42 11 26 33 34 6 881 186 2011.2 677 28 18 5 19 10 1 27 8 12 14 105 2 926 196 2011.3 564 44 15 4 9 6 0 13 3 5 6 109 2 781 165 2011.4 516 60 24 5 9 12 0 19 2 7 17 100 7 778 165 2012.1 383 65 26 6 15 16 1 28 1 9 94 66 9 720 152 2012.2 243 122 20 7 19 14 4 36 4 18 174 41 11 712 151 2012.3 127 135 10 4 10 6 4 27 5 26 116 33 17 521 110 2012.4 105 91 18 9 7 2 5 80 4 52 181 33 16 603 128 2013.1 157 35 21 8 7 2 5 102 2 48 161 23 8 580 123 2013.2 249 14 18 5 11 4 5 94 1 34 95 15 4 551 117 2013.3 341 13 18 9 17 7 5 80 0 24 38 12 3 568 120 2013.4 253 34 32 14 18 13 5 48 0 18 21 15 3 473 100 2014.1 190 39 34 11 19 13 3 31 1 13 24 16 2 394 83 2014.2 214 49 42 6 26 25 1 24 1 7 17 16 1 428 91 2014.3 235 46 36 3 30 40 0 21 1 4 13 17 1 447 95 2014.4 216 37 67 5 23 28 2 19 2 12 23 28 3 465 98 2015.1 187 35 84 6 17 20 2 17 1 15 26 30 4 444 94 2015.2 196 39 100 8 17 19 3 19 1 17 28 31 4 483 102 2015.3 219 35 55 9 19 17 3 28 1 14 24 23 3 450 95 2015.4 252 34 33 11 20 16 3 38 1 13 20 16 2 458 97 2016.1 240 34 32 10 19 16 3 34 1 12 20 16 2 439 93 2016.2 238 35 32 11 19 17 3 32 1 12 20 17 2 437 92 Fiscal year 2010 1307 1015 149 100 143 88 20 84 6 200 350 190 16 3669 2011 2225 729 104 39 117 83 22 127 31 181 128 215 31 4033 2012 1706 291 85 22 51 48 6 96 10 39 292 317 29 2990 2013 639 275 66 27 36 14 19 303 12 161 553 104 45 2254 2014 997 134 125 40 79 58 14 183 2 62 100 60 9 1863 2015 835 156 287 22 88 107 7 77 6 47 90 106 11 1839 2016 949 138 152 41 78 67 12 132 3 51 83 73 7 1784

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 44

Table A.6 Total non-residential building value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 980 223 93 60 57 54 6 52 1 60 124 105 3 1818 103 2009.4 971 240 93 31 109 71 7 59 1 64 173 76 6 1899 108 2010.1 873 490 76 22 106 67 8 46 3 114 140 73 8 2027 115 2010.2 860 589 61 18 80 58 10 59 5 143 111 68 13 2076 118 2010.3 944 545 70 19 63 69 12 85 6 234 97 72 18 2232 127 2010.4 1097 298 79 19 62 72 10 77 7 209 79 68 18 2095 119 2011.1 1124 106 66 18 69 71 6 74 12 119 97 82 14 1857 106 2011.2 1406 116 48 14 51 64 8 58 8 69 100 166 10 2119 121 2011.3 1310 124 62 11 35 55 10 48 4 44 70 149 8 1931 110 2011.4 1208 148 87 12 32 56 6 63 2 54 107 140 10 1927 110 2012.1 1005 162 121 14 35 57 6 114 2 70 184 104 14 1889 107 2012.2 803 198 103 14 33 48 10 149 5 88 230 70 16 1766 100 2012.3 743 194 66 9 23 40 14 159 6 103 150 56 21 1586 90 2012.4 723 177 63 13 22 41 16 215 5 135 213 52 18 1692 96 2013.1 769 148 61 15 24 62 13 270 2 132 211 43 18 1766 100 2013.2 850 122 50 13 43 85 11 286 3 105 157 35 21 1782 101 2013.3 846 107 303 15 61 82 10 242 5 75 92 28 18 1884 107 2013.4 753 125 382 19 55 72 9 152 4 62 64 35 27 1759 100 2014.1 757 181 285 16 55 66 7 94 3 72 67 46 30 1680 96 2014.2 816 403 169 10 60 76 6 61 2 71 57 48 18 1797 102 2014.3 893 442 94 6 61 93 7 46 2 61 45 44 7 1801 102 2014.4 883 319 184 9 56 86 9 63 3 66 58 52 10 1799 102 2015.1 790 246 251 11 52 77 9 78 4 67 63 53 16 1717 98 2015.2 804 242 301 13 56 79 9 92 4 72 71 58 20 1821 104 2015.3 828 222 245 16 57 77 9 108 3 72 71 56 18 1781 101 2015.4 897 213 222 20 62 79 9 130 3 76 75 58 17 1861 106 2016.1 889 213 213 20 61 78 9 124 3 75 75 60 16 1837 104 2016.2 905 219 210 20 62 80 9 121 3 77 77 63 16 1863 106 Fiscal year 2010 3684 1542 324 131 353 250 30 216 10 381 547 321 30 7820 2011 4571 1065 264 70 245 276 35 294 34 630 372 386 60 8302 2012 4327 632 373 52 136 216 32 374 13 256 591 463 48 7513 2013 3085 641 241 49 111 228 53 929 16 476 731 186 78 6826 2014 3172 815 1139 60 231 296 33 549 14 281 279 157 93 7119 2015 3371 1250 831 39 225 334 34 280 12 266 237 206 52 7137 2016 3519 867 890 75 242 313 36 482 13 301 298 236 67 7340

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 45

Table A.7 Public sector engineering value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 562 110 64 40 106 46 15 89 11 133 63 59 11 1312 79 2009.4 553 102 63 42 101 50 16 94 11 127 66 56 9 1290 78 2010.1 525 92 60 36 99 50 13 94 10 118 60 49 11 1217 73 2010.2 594 101 69 37 115 60 12 112 10 130 66 53 14 1373 83 2010.3 507 83 60 29 102 55 9 101 7 109 55 43 15 1174 71 2010.4 559 89 68 30 117 65 8 119 7 119 59 45 20 1303 79 2011.1 581 94 68 28 119 67 12 117 8 100 63 51 19 1327 80 2011.2 681 115 78 31 140 79 20 132 10 96 76 68 21 1548 93 2011.3 549 97 62 24 113 65 24 104 9 64 65 62 16 1254 76 2011.4 671 127 76 28 142 82 44 125 13 66 85 88 19 1564 94 2012.1 640 131 74 26 141 82 63 120 14 53 88 98 18 1549 93 2012.2 711 161 86 29 167 98 108 137 19 52 108 131 19 1825 110 2012.3 556 145 73 23 144 86 135 114 18 37 97 127 16 1572 95 2012.4 598 132 74 36 144 111 15 160 10 66 105 108 27 1584 96 2013.1 566 134 70 33 140 109 21 150 10 52 106 119 24 1535 93 2013.2 598 153 76 34 153 121 33 159 13 47 122 147 25 1681 101 2013.3 530 150 70 30 144 115 45 144 13 36 120 156 22 1575 95 2013.4 604 147 112 45 124 178 13 133 9 64 91 112 25 1658 100 2014.1 544 127 103 37 101 168 14 117 11 136 83 102 23 1566 94 2014.2 460 101 88 29 75 149 12 96 10 190 72 89 20 1392 84 2014.3 461 92 89 30 63 152 12 92 10 218 72 90 21 1401 84 2014.4 499 112 109 26 129 138 14 118 9 76 109 95 27 1463 88 2015.1 529 110 116 30 129 168 15 125 11 62 118 104 28 1545 93 2015.2 533 104 119 32 125 195 16 131 11 42 124 110 29 1571 95 2015.3 480 102 117 34 119 224 16 134 11 41 128 115 28 1550 94 2015.4 492 112 128 41 128 253 18 154 12 45 143 133 31 1690 102 2016.1 490 115 131 48 130 243 20 166 13 46 144 141 32 1717 104 2016.2 524 124 143 56 137 245 21 184 15 49 153 154 34 1839 111 Fiscal year 2010 2235 405 256 156 422 206 56 388 42 509 255 217 45 5192 2011 2328 381 273 119 478 265 49 469 33 423 252 206 76 5352 2012 2571 515 298 107 563 328 239 486 56 235 345 378 72 6192 2013 2318 564 292 126 581 428 204 583 51 202 430 501 92 6372 2014 2138 525 373 141 445 610 84 491 42 427 366 458 91 6191 2015 2022 417 433 118 447 653 58 466 41 398 424 400 104 5980 2016 1986 453 518 179 514 965 75 637 51 182 568 543 125 6796

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 46

Table A.8 Private sector engineering value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1731 333 146 32 19 292 149 611 12 281 172 85 97 3961 42 2009.4 1574 315 138 31 20 270 112 562 11 279 190 80 87 3667 39 2010.1 1568 330 158 35 22 290 19 646 13 323 226 92 86 3809 41 2010.2 1187 205 267 29 17 215 16 672 11 485 174 77 113 3467 37 2010.3 1248 224 341 32 14 337 17 782 12 570 175 84 135 3971 42 2010.4 1274 236 359 34 15 354 18 829 12 599 154 89 130 4102 44 2011.1 1465 272 412 39 17 531 291 947 27 634 177 102 106 5020 54 2011.2 1581 302 456 43 19 594 589 1501 30 441 204 113 194 6067 65 2011.3 1356 243 367 34 26 486 560 2301 24 351 166 100 174 6188 66 2011.4 1400 248 318 35 30 536 552 3365 24 388 169 104 178 7348 78 2012.1 1512 263 170 37 32 617 701 2763 40 934 179 111 188 7549 80 2012.2 1321 227 158 32 41 629 770 3373 55 1051 155 96 237 8144 87 2012.3 1381 210 149 30 42 625 654 3393 60 1170 143 89 242 8188 87 2012.4 1149 203 144 29 63 633 705 3599 67 1242 138 104 269 8344 89 2013.1 1222 228 162 32 99 734 813 3436 78 1437 154 96 261 8751 93 2013.2 1136 208 148 29 67 658 696 3206 73 1317 140 88 237 8004 85 2013.3 1277 249 177 35 53 787 622 3872 88 1603 168 105 362 9399 100 2013.4 1244 243 173 34 64 760 689 3837 86 1611 163 100 377 9380 100 2014.1 1116 223 159 31 62 770 560 3667 79 1466 149 187 294 8764 93 2014.2 1075 223 156 31 55 760 427 3432 63 1492 148 238 216 8316 89 2014.3 1106 256 167 35 37 532 442 3135 66 1443 162 312 68 7762 83 2014.4 1052 242 158 33 58 469 329 3164 51 1473 152 253 148 7583 81 2015.1 820 187 122 26 52 415 252 2952 39 1416 117 110 131 6638 71 2015.2 767 170 111 23 46 461 229 2836 36 1558 106 101 120 6564 70 2015.3 674 150 100 20 36 633 200 3055 31 1218 93 89 265 6564 70 2015.4 594 137 92 19 21 640 183 3401 28 913 328 105 291 6752 72 2016.1 548 131 89 16 7 580 161 3140 25 791 375 99 256 6218 66 2016.2 547 135 82 16 7 560 125 2883 188 751 379 93 279 6045 64 Fiscal year 2010 6061 1183 708 128 77 1067 295 2491 47 1367 763 335 382 14904 2011 5568 1035 1567 147 64 1815 916 4059 81 2243 710 388 565 19160 2012 5589 981 1013 139 128 2269 2583 11802 144 2724 669 411 778 29229 2013 4888 849 603 119 272 2650 2868 13634 279 5166 575 377 1008 33287 2014 4712 939 664 131 233 3078 2299 14808 317 6173 628 630 1248 35859 2015 3746 855 559 117 192 1877 1252 12087 192 5891 537 777 467 28548 2016 2364 553 362 71 72 2412 669 12479 273 3672 1175 385 1091 25579

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 47

Table A.9 Total engineering value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 2294 443 210 73 125 337 164 701 23 414 236 145 108 5272 48 2009.4 2127 416 200 73 121 320 128 655 23 406 256 136 96 4957 45 2010.1 2093 423 218 71 121 341 31 740 22 441 286 141 96 5026 46 2010.2 1781 306 336 67 132 275 28 783 20 615 239 130 127 4840 44 2010.3 1755 307 401 61 116 392 26 883 19 679 229 127 150 5145 47 2010.4 1833 325 426 63 131 419 26 948 19 718 213 133 150 5405 49 2011.1 2046 367 479 67 136 598 303 1064 35 734 239 153 125 6347 57 2011.2 2262 417 534 74 158 673 610 1633 40 536 281 181 215 7615 69 2011.3 1905 340 428 58 140 551 584 2405 33 415 231 162 190 7442 67 2011.4 2071 374 394 63 172 619 596 3490 37 453 254 192 196 8912 81 2012.1 2153 394 244 63 173 699 764 2883 55 987 267 209 206 9097 82 2012.2 2031 388 243 61 208 728 878 3510 74 1103 263 226 257 9970 90 2012.3 1937 355 222 53 186 711 789 3507 78 1207 240 216 257 9760 88 2012.4 1747 335 218 65 207 744 719 3759 77 1307 242 213 296 9929 90 2013.1 1788 361 232 65 239 843 834 3586 89 1489 260 215 285 10285 93 2013.2 1734 361 223 63 221 779 729 3365 86 1365 262 235 262 9685 88 2013.3 1807 399 247 65 197 903 667 4017 101 1640 288 261 384 10974 99 2013.4 1848 390 285 78 188 937 702 3970 95 1676 254 212 402 11038 100 2014.1 1660 350 261 68 163 938 574 3784 90 1602 233 288 318 10330 94 2014.2 1535 325 244 60 129 909 440 3528 72 1683 220 327 236 9708 88 2014.3 1567 348 256 65 99 684 455 3227 75 1661 234 403 89 9163 83 2014.4 1551 354 268 60 187 607 343 3282 61 1550 262 347 175 9045 82 2015.1 1349 296 238 55 181 582 267 3077 50 1478 235 215 159 8183 74 2015.2 1300 274 230 55 172 656 244 2967 46 1600 230 212 148 8136 74 2015.3 1155 252 217 54 156 857 216 3189 42 1259 221 204 293 8114 74 2015.4 1086 249 220 60 149 893 201 3555 41 958 471 238 322 8442 76 2016.1 1038 246 219 64 137 823 181 3306 38 837 519 239 288 7935 72 2016.2 1071 259 225 72 144 805 146 3067 203 800 532 247 313 7885 71 Fiscal year 2010 8295 1588 964 284 499 1274 351 2879 88 1876 1018 552 427 20096 2011 7897 1416 1840 266 542 2081 965 4528 114 2667 962 594 641 24512 2012 8160 1496 1311 245 692 2597 2822 12288 200 2958 1014 789 849 35421 2013 7206 1412 895 246 852 3078 3072 14217 329 5368 1005 878 1100 39659 2014 6850 1464 1037 271 678 3688 2383 15299 359 6600 995 1088 1339 42051 2015 5768 1273 992 235 639 2530 1309 12553 232 6289 961 1176 571 34528 2016 4350 1006 881 250 586 3377 744 13117 324 3854 1744 929 1216 32375

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 48

Table A.10 Public dwelling value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 28 5 4 1 4 2 0 6 0 0 9 4 1 65 240 2009.4 40 2 4 1 2 2 0 5 0 5 16 6 0 84 312 2010.1 39 4 3 1 4 4 0 5 0 5 27 5 0 97 360 2010.2 68 5 5 1 6 6 0 7 0 6 42 15 0 163 605 2010.3 68 9 5 1 15 9 0 14 0 4 40 18 2 186 689 2010.4 69 6 5 1 18 6 0 13 0 6 23 16 1 164 609 2011.1 50 4 4 1 15 4 0 11 0 7 16 10 1 123 455 2011.2 36 3 3 1 11 1 0 5 0 6 12 8 2 87 323 2011.3 17 2 2 1 3 1 0 1 0 5 15 6 3 56 207 2011.4 16 3 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 13 5 3 46 171 2012.1 14 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 1 1 7 2 1 32 120 2012.2 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 5 1 1 27 99 2012.3 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 1 2 2 0 21 79 2012.4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 3 1 15 57 2013.1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 1 2 1 12 45 2013.2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 2 2 0 12 44 2013.3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 2 4 3 1 21 77 2013.4 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 7 0 2 5 3 1 27 100 2014.1 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 6 0 2 6 3 1 31 114 2014.2 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 74 2014.3 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 18 67 2014.4 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 18 67 2015.1 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 73 2015.2 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 76 2015.3 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 21 79 2015.4 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 22 83 2016.1 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 22 82 2016.2 10 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 0 2 6 3 1 30 112 Fiscal year 2010 175 17 17 4 16 13 1 22 1 17 94 30 1 408 2011 223 22 16 3 59 20 1 43 1 24 91 52 6 559 2012 56 8 4 2 5 4 0 9 2 8 40 14 9 160 2013 12 2 0 1 1 2 0 21 0 3 6 8 2 60 2014 23 3 0 1 2 5 1 22 0 6 20 11 3 98 2015 26 3 2 1 4 2 0 11 0 4 14 7 2 76 2016 32 4 2 1 4 3 0 14 0 5 18 9 3 96

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Queensland and Queensland region construction activity: Quarterly projection update – September quarter 2014 49

Table A.11 Total construction: value of work done – 2012-13 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 5006 1382 705 214 420 526 179 892 28 633 570 452 119 11126 68 2009.4 4972 1407 716 192 482 548 144 858 28 652 660 430 109 11199 69 2010.1 4796 1609 702 179 477 577 49 922 29 737 663 426 112 11277 69 2010.2 4639 1609 838 179 479 531 48 990 29 955 615 431 149 11492 70 2010.3 4554 1476 874 168 427 651 47 1113 29 1089 564 412 177 11581 71 2010.4 4765 1192 899 166 433 671 44 1172 30 1095 499 399 177 11544 71 2011.1 4999 927 875 161 418 856 319 1287 52 997 505 390 147 11936 73 2011.2 5495 942 885 157 407 917 630 1838 54 736 535 489 234 13320 82 2011.3 5202 892 805 142 373 797 607 2617 44 596 472 469 207 13222 81 2011.4 5081 930 777 141 383 840 613 3712 45 638 531 492 216 14399 88 2012.1 5011 999 685 149 392 923 782 3181 63 1210 637 495 227 14755 90 2012.2 4620 1016 660 151 420 941 901 3859 85 1360 683 485 280 15463 95 2012.3 4292 930 572 136 372 910 817 3869 90 1487 565 443 285 14766 90 2012.4 4102 904 576 158 398 953 751 4206 87 1651 638 436 321 15179 93 2013.1 4072 886 569 153 422 1064 863 4099 95 1842 646 413 310 15434 95 2013.2 4095 871 553 147 423 1024 758 3921 93 1708 596 420 291 14900 91 2013.3 4161 908 831 139 406 1136 694 4525 110 1950 546 430 409 16244 99 2013.4 4256 945 978 157 395 1162 725 4347 103 1947 485 391 437 16329 100 2014.1 4247 979 878 150 385 1169 592 4074 96 1863 479 484 356 15750 96 2014.2 4255 1215 762 138 356 1148 456 3759 77 1910 455 517 262 15312 94 2014.3 4338 1301 706 142 334 939 473 3449 81 1880 464 602 104 14812 91 2014.4 4313 1207 815 143 425 858 365 3529 68 1777 511 568 194 14773 90 2015.1 4048 1102 865 144 423 829 289 3347 58 1711 500 449 186 13950 85 2015.2 4064 1105 923 150 427 911 267 3262 56 1846 512 462 180 14165 87 2015.3 3911 1066 853 153 414 1109 239 3500 52 1504 504 457 323 14084 86 2015.4 3971 1084 851 167 421 1153 225 3897 51 1214 768 504 351 14658 90 2016.1 3924 1090 846 173 410 1084 206 3646 48 1094 819 512 317 14171 87 2016.2 4024 1133 864 186 426 1072 172 3412 214 1062 843 533 343 14284 87 Fiscal year 2010 19412 6007 2961 765 1859 2182 420 3662 113 2978 2507 1739 489 45095 2011 19814 4538 3532 652 1686 3095 1040 5411 165 3918 2104 1691 735 48381 2012 19914 3838 2928 583 1568 3502 2903 13368 237 3804 2323 1941 931 57839 2013 16561 3590 2270 594 1616 3952 3189 16095 365 6687 2444 1712 1206 60279 2014 16920 4046 3450 584 1542 4614 2467 16705 385 7670 1965 1823 1464 63635 2015 16762 4714 3309 578 1608 3537 1394 13587 264 7214 1986 2081 664 57700 2016 15831 4374 3414 678 1671 4418 842 14456 364 4875 2933 2007 1335 57197