Quarterly Report3Q19

Enrollment History

Year (Oct.) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2015/16 15 124 317 344 355 338 349 336 363 327 367 354 312 295 275 4,4712016/17 17 129 327 328 356 359 355 369 351 392 352 398 364 302 303 4,702 231 5.2%2017/18 32 159 367 357 363 389 397 385 413 380 416 373 400 360 297 5,088 386 8.2%2018/19 45 209 374 384 367 391 421 415 436 454 408 427 390 388 358 5,467 379 7.4%2019/20 30 181 431 408 422 411 447 470 483 465 469 436 433 399 367 5,852 385 7.0%

2

3,546

4,471

5,852

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Medina Valley ISD Historical Enrollment

*Yellow Box = largest grade per yearGreen Box = second largest grade per year

Annual Enrollment Change

Year (Oct.) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth%

Growth 2015/16 15 124 317 344 355 338 349 336 363 327 367 354 312 295 275 4,4712016/17 17 129 327 328 356 359 355 369 351 392 352 398 364 302 303 4,702 231 5.2%2017/18 32 159 367 357 363 389 397 385 413 380 416 373 400 360 297 5,088 386 8.2%2018/19 45 209 374 384 367 391 421 415 436 454 408 427 390 388 358 5,467 379 7.4%2019/20 30 181 431 408 422 411 447 470 483 465 469 436 433 399 367 5,852 385 7.0%

Year EE PK KG 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Elem Mid High3­year AVG 1.318 1.138 1.098 1.076 1.078 1.097 1.110 1.082 1.139 1.083 1.056 1.052 1.022 0.994 0.975 1.090 1.092 1.010

2016/17 1.133 1.040 1.032 1.035 1.035 1.011 1.050 1.057 1.045 1.080 1.076 1.084 1.028 0.968 1.027 1.037 1.067 1.0272017/18 1.882 1.233 1.122 1.092 1.107 1.093 1.106 1.085 1.119 1.083 1.061 1.060 1.005 0.989 0.983 1.101 1.088 1.0092018/19 1.406 1.314 1.019 1.046 1.028 1.077 1.082 1.045 1.132 1.099 1.074 1.026 1.046 0.970 0.994 1.050 1.102 1.0092019/20 0.667 0.866 1.152 1.091 1.099 1.120 1.143 1.116 1.164 1.067 1.033 1.069 1.014 1.023 0.946 1.120 1.088 1.013

• Medina Valley ISD added 385 students this fall due to continued housing growth• The district had historically high cohorts in elementary grades, including KG, 3rd,

4th and 5th grades

3

EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Diff1.16%Projection 45 209 417 423 426 403 428 465 458 479 500 445 448 386 388 5,920

Difference 15 28 ­14 15 4 ­8 ­19 ­5 ­25 14 31 9 15 ­13 21 68

*Yellow Box = largest grade per yearGreen Box = second largest grade per year

Economic Conditions – San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA (October 2019)

UnemploymentRate

­0.3%

U.S. 3.3%Texas 3.3%

San Antonio MSA 3.1%Medina Co. 2.9%

38,492 more jobsNational rate 1.4%

Job Growth

3.3%1,672 more

starts than 3Q18

AnnualHome Starts

1,135

4

Medina Valley ISD Housing Market AnalysisHome Sales by Transaction Type, 2010 – Oct 2019

Sources: Metrostudy & Medina County Deed Transactions5

113 148241 243

313402

473 507 457550

260264

320 350

389

415

520533 631

602

92104

66 40

48

48

6537

257

9769

65 58

109

51

41 5139

22

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019

Annual District Home Sales

New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Foreclosures REO Sales

• In 2019 there have been approx. 1,180 home sales in Medina Valley ISD putting them on path to increase the district sales trend since 2016

• Total foreclosures and REO sales throughout EMS ISD have decreased by more than 84% since 2010

• New homes sales within the district have more than quadrupled since 2010

Medina Valley ISD Housing MarketAverage New vs. Existing Home Sale Price, 2010 – Oct 2019

6

• Since 2010, the average new home price in MVISD has increased by $77,897, or 44%

• The average existing home price within the district has increased by 48%, or roughly $75,794 since 2010

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

Average District New vs Existing Home Sale Price, 2010 – Oct 2019

Avg New Home Price Avg Existing Home Price

Avg New Home Price

Avg Existing Home Price

2010 $178,478 $156,576 2011 $174,927 $153,916 2012 $178,862 $160,659 2013 $204,404 $177,116 2014 $217,748 $182,065 2015 $238,873 $183,425 2016 $235,352 $189,652 2017 $249,308 $194,734 2018 $266,638 $213,023

2019 YTD $256,375 $232,370

Medina Valley ISD New Housing Activity

7

• Medina Valley ISD started more than 250 homes in 3Q19, the most starts in the past ten years

• The district closed approx. 637 homes so far in 2019, putting them on pace to close approximately 850 homes by the end of the year

Starts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Closings 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191Q 72 115 70 84 112 124 161 1Q 50 115 76 79 119 109 1922Q 86 69 109 94 143 163 273 2Q 67 69 81 93 133 146 2393Q 75 87 105 153 150 199 252 3Q 59 87 86 101 134 132 2064Q 78 67 118 116 107 282 4Q 88 67 108 124 131 140

Total 311 338 402 447 512 768 686 Total 264 338 351 397 517 527 637

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

New Home Starts New Home Closings

San Antonio New Home Ranking ReportISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q19

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Rank District NameAnnual Starts

Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Northside ISD 3,961 3,727 5,240 31,7592 Comal ISD 2,162 2,078 3,532 27,2823 Judson ISD 1,260 1,276 1,798 5,4184 New Braunfels ISD 849 847 1,148 8,5025 Medina Valley ISD 928 778 478 23,146*6 Schertz­Cibolo U City ISD 769 753 1,189 9,5387 Boerne ISD 725 685 1,706 11,1248 East Central ISD 693 590 937 10,7769 North East ISD 536 480 889 6,012

10 Southwest ISD 381 228 488 6,79911 San Antonio ISD 261 169 426 1,66312 Southside ISD 157 124 81 5,37013 Navarro ISD 64 106 22 4,33014 South San Antonio ISD 156 84 190 37515 Harlandale ISD 64 78 14 2916 Marion ISD 45 57 43 23617 Alamo Heights ISD 37 46 78 7118 Seguin ISD 43 25 133 3,83319 Comfort ISD 0 0 0 020 Edgewood ISD 44 0 62 3221 Somerset ISD 0 0 0 394

* Based on additional Templeton Demographics housing research

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District Housing Overview by Elementary Zone

Elementary Zone Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

Under Construction Inventory VDL Futures

CASTROVILLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LACOSTE 138 11 129 28 19 146 51 2,959

LUCKEY RANCH 405 134 389 98 136 575 202 8,358

POTRANCO 385 107 260 80 131 503 225 11,829

TOTAL 928 252 778 206 286 1,224 478 23,146

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

10

District Housing Overview

• The district has more than 470 lots available to build on

• Within MVISD there are more than 23,100 planned future lots

• Of these, groundwork is underway on approx. 1,550 lots within MVISD

Multi-Family Housing Overview

• There are currently 75 units under construction within the district

• Within MVISD there are roughly 312 future multi-family units in the planning stages

11

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Medina Valley ISD New Home Activity

Forecasted Medina Valley ISD New Home Activity

Projected

Medina Valley ISD is forecasted to close roughly 950 – 1,000 new homes annually for the next 3-5 years 12

5 Year Change in Residential Units by Planning Area

Elementary ZoneTotal Change in

Residential Units 2019/20- 2024/25

LUCKEY RANCH 2,549POTRANCO 1,705LACOSTE 960CASTROVILLE 106

TOTAL 5,320

13

01 – 100101 – 200201 – 300> 300

Total Residential Units by Elementary Zone, 2019/20 – 2024/25

14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

CASTROVILLE LACOSTE LUCKEY RANCH POTRANCO

Total Residential Units by Elem Zone

Total Residential Units Additional Residential Units­ 5 Years

Multi-Family Yield

15

• Within Medina Valley ISD there are currently 221 students residing in 1,078 multi-family units

• The district average multi-family yield is 0.205

Student Density

16

• Medina Valley ISD has 283 students that reside outside the district boundary, representing 4.6% of all the district students

• 55% students within the district reside in Medina County

Birth Rate Analysis

17

Kindergarten Enrollment

District Births Ratio

2006 (2011/12) 241 142 1.6972007 (2012/13) 237 126 1.8812008 (2013/14) 280 144 1.9442009 (2014/15) 292 123 2.3742010 (2015/16) 317 132 2.4022011 (2016/17) 327 112 2.9202012 (2017/18) 367 104 3.5292013 (2018/19) 374 92 4.0652014 (2019/20) 431 116 3.7162015 (2020/21) 461 120 3.8422016 (2021/22) 506 145 3.4902017 (2022/23) 537 138 3.891

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006(2011/12)

2007(2012/13)

2008(2013/14)

2009(2014/15)

2010(2015/16)

2011(2016/17)

2012(2017/18)

2013(2018/19)

2014(2019/20)

2015(2020/21)

2016(2021/22)

2017(2022/23)

Medina Valley KG Enroll vs. District Births

Kindergarten Enrollment Zip Births

Ten Year Forecast by Grade Level

Yellow box = largest grade per yearGreen box = second largest grade per year

18

Year (Oct.) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth%

Growth2015/16 15 124 317 344 355 338 349 336 363 327 367 354 312 295 275 4,4712016/17 17 129 327 328 356 359 355 369 351 392 352 398 364 302 303 4,702 231 5.2%2017/18 32 159 367 357 363 389 397 385 413 380 416 373 400 360 297 5,088 386 8.2%2018/19 45 209 374 384 367 391 421 415 436 454 408 427 390 388 358 5,467 379 7.4%2019/20 30 181 431 408 422 411 447 470 483 465 469 436 433 399 367 5,852 385 7.0%2020/21 30 181 461 463 456 459 447 486 515 524 504 497 445 430 391 6,289 437 7.5%2021/22 30 181 506 510 505 498 500 487 533 559 557 530 497 443 419 6,755 466 7.4%2022/23 30 181 537 550 549 543 537 539 545 579 593 590 530 499 428 7,230 475 7.0%2023/24 30 181 575 576 589 591 585 583 594 595 611 627 593 514 479 7,723 493 6.8%2024/25 30 181 604 620 620 634 636 629 638 646 635 645 628 575 493 8,214 491 6.4%2025/26 30 181 619 641 663 665 679 681 686 687 676 672 647 609 552 8,688 474 5.8%2026/27 30 181 644 659 681 711 714 720 735 738 720 715 674 628 585 9,135 447 5.1%2027/28 30 181 666 688 702 730 757 765 773 790 778 761 717 654 603 9,595 460 5.0%2028/29 30 181 690 712 733 755 776 809 826 831 830 823 763 695 628 10,082 487 5.1%2029/30 30 181 717 735 757 788 806 827 872 889 873 878 825 740 667 10,585 503 5.0%

Ten Year Forecast by Campus

Yellow box = over capacity

19

Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSELEMENTARY CAMPUS Capacity 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30CASTROVILLE ELEMENTARY 750 636 625 608 604 610 611 633 623 620 619 612 600LACOSTE ELEMENTARY 850 531 545 565 596 629 655 694 741 783 822 858 889LUCKEY RANCH ELEMENTARY 1,000 739 846 970 1,102 1,244 1,389 1,505 1,595 1,676 1,747 1,818 1,885POTRANCO ELEMENTARY 1,000 700 784 840 915 983 1,055 1,122 1,200 1,261 1,331 1,398 1,467ELEMENTARY TOTALS 2,606 2,800 2,983 3,217 3,466 3,710 3,954 4,159 4,340 4,519 4,686 4,841Elementary Absolute Change 157 194 183 234 249 244 244 205 181 179 167 155Elementary Percent Change 6.411% 7.44% 6.54% 7.84% 7.74% 7.04% 6.58% 5.18% 4.35% 4.12% 3.70% 3.31%LOMA ALTA MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,100 691 780 890 987 1,046 1,103 1,215 1,335 1,487 1,609 1,723 1,838MEDINA VALLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,100 607 637 653 662 671 697 704 714 706 732 764 796MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 1,298 1,417 1,543 1,649 1,717 1,800 1,919 2,049 2,193 2,341 2,487 2,634Middle School Absolute Change 89 119 126 106 68 83 119 130 144 148 146 147Middle School Percent Change 7.361% 9.17% 8.89% 6.87% 4.12% 4.83% 6.61% 6.77% 7.03% 6.75% 6.24% 5.91%MEDINA VALLEY HIGH SCHOOL 1,800 1,563 1,635 1,763 1,889 2,047 2,213 2,341 2,480 2,602 2,735 2,909 3,110HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 1,563 1,635 1,763 1,889 2,047 2,213 2,341 2,480 2,602 2,735 2,909 3,110High School Absolute Change 133 72 128 126 158 166 128 139 122 133 174 201High School Percent Change 9.30% 4.61% 7.83% 7.15% 8.36% 8.11% 5.78% 5.94% 4.92% 5.11% 6.36% 6.91%DISTRICT TOTALS 5,467 5,852 6,289 6,755 7,230 7,723 8,214 8,688 9,135 9,595 10,082 10,585District Absolute Change 379 385 437 466 475 493 491 474 447 460 487 503District Percent Change 7.45% 7.04% 7.47% 7.41% 7.03% 6.82% 6.36% 5.77% 5.15% 5.04% 5.08% 4.99%

Key Takeaways

20

• Medina Valley ISD will continue to experience enrollment growth due to a strong housing market

• Luckey Ranch and PotrancoElementary zones could see more than 4,000 additional residential units in the next 5 years

• The district is forecasted to add 950 to 1,000 single family homes a year for the next 5 years

• MV ISD is expected to enroll more than 8,200 students by 2024-25 and more than 10,500 students by 2029-30

5,852

8,214

10,585

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Projected Enrollment