quarterly economic report - mackenzieinvestments.com · mackenzie investments market insights...

September 30, 2020

Quarterly Economic

Report

Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 2

Economic Overview

Mackenzie Investments Market Insights

Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Advanced Economies 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.7% (8.0%) 4.8%

Emerging Markets 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.5% 3.7% (3.0%) 5.9%

World 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2.9% (4.9%) 5.4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

World Japan Canada Euro US Russia Brazil China India

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% Change Year Over Year)

3



Dominant Contributors of Global GDP IMF Share of World GDP Based on PPP (Year Ending 2019)

4

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ch

ina

Eu

rop

ea

n U

nio

n

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Ind

ia

Jap

an

Ru

ssia

Bra

zil

Ind

on

esi

a

Me

xico

So

uth

Ko

rea

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Ca

na

da

Tu

rke

y

Au

stra

lia

Ta

iwa

n

Sw

ite

rla

nd

No

rwa

y

Source: Bloomberg (Dec 2019)



Global Mergers & Acquisitions M&A Transaction Value Global Index by Quarter (15 Years)

5

2.14

2.73

3.68

4.05

2.50

1.79

2.22 2.27 2.23 2.33

3.30

4.32

3.60 3.40

3.90 3.80

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019




Closer Look at China China Exports by Quarter (USD Billion)

6

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300S

ep-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-1

9

Ma

r-20

Jun

-20

Sep

-20



Closer Look at China % of GDP NSA Cumulative (10 Years in CNY)

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Farming and Forestry

Industrie et construction

Services



Total and Core CPI Canada and US Total and Core CPI (% Change Year Over Year)

8

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

CAN - Total CPI CAN - Core CPI

-3 %

-2 %

-1 %

0 %

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

6 %

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

US - Total CPI US - Core CPI

Canada United States

Source: Bloomberg (Aug 2020)



Consumer Spending & Business Investment

9

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

Canada

USA

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Canada

USA

Real Consumer Spending (q/q % a.r.)

Real Business Investment (q/q % a.r.)

Source: Bloomberg (Jun 2020)



Corporate Profits Corporate Profits Growth Rate (% Change Year Over Year)

10

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US Corporate Profits Canada Corporate Profits

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019




9.6%8.9%

8.1%7.4%

6.2%

5.3%4.9%

4.3%3.9% 3.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Job Market

11

US Unemployment Rate Canadian Unemployment Rate

8.0%7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0%

6.3%5.8% 5.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019




Closer Look at Canada – GDP Breakdown GDP Breakdown Across Commodity Related Sectors (Indexed)

12

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2017 2018 2019 2020

Selected export related industries Industries most affected by commodity prices Rest of the Economy



US Economic Indicators

13

US Real GDP Growth US Core Inflation

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



15 Years ending July 2020

US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)

14

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Leading Economic Index

Coincident Economic Index

Source: Bloomberg (Jul 2020)



US Home Sales and Prices

15

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

5.8

6.3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$150.0

$170.0

$190.0

$210.0

$230.0

$250.0

$270.0

$290.0

$310.0

$330.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US Existing Home Sales US Existing Home Selling Prices

vs. Last month 2.4%

vs. Last year 10.5%

vs. Last month 1.7%

vs. Last year 11.4%

15 Years ending August 2020




How Does Canada’s Housing Market Compare? Canada Housing Market vs. US Housing Market

16

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US Canada

Existing Homes Prices



Commodities



Commodity Overview

18

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bloomberg Commodity Index – 15 Year Performance to September 30, 2020

70.85



Crude Reality: Price of Oil

19

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

West Texas Intermediate (USD per barrel) – 15 Year Price to September 30, 2020

$40.22



Gold (USD/ troy ounce) – 15 Year Price to September 30, 2020Gold Bullion

20

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

$1,885.82



Canada’s PetroDollar CAD vs Price of Crude Oil (10 Years)

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CADUSD ( lhs)

WTI Oil Price (rhs)


Currencies



Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar

23

40 Years ending September 2020

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020



Foreign Exchange Rates

24

USD Comparisons – 1 Year Rates to September 30, 2020

Yen vs. USD Euro vs. USD CDN vs. USD

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

1.22

Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20



Emerging Market Currencies

25

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

De

c-1

7

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-19

De

c-1

9

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-20

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Brazil Real Chilean Peso South African Rand Russia Rouble

Indian Rupee Turkish Lira Argentine Peso Chinese Yuan

(Indexed to 100 on September 30, 2017)

Exchange rates against the U.S. Dollar – 3 Year Rates to September 30, 2020



Currency – The Hidden Difference

26

90

95

100

105

110

115

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

USDCAD

EURCAD

JPYCAD

Canada U.S. Euro Area Japan Emerg. Markets China World

S&P/ TSX S&P500 MSCI Europe NR MSCI Japan NR MSCI EM NR MSCI China NR MSCI World

Local Currency Returns (0.0%) 15.1% (7.3%) 4.4% 12.5% 32.0% 8.5%

CDN$-Based Returns (0.0%) 15.8% (0.3%) 7.5% 11.1% 34.3% 11.0%

(Indexed to 100 on September 30, 2019)

Foreign currencies vs. Canadian Dollar – 1 Year Rates to September 30, 2020


Equities



A View of Global Market Indices

28

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

S&P/ TSX Composite Index Prices - 12 months ending September 30, 2020

S&P/ TSX S&P 500 Euro Area Japan Emerg. Mkts China World

1-Year returns to Sep 30: (0.0%) 15.1% (7.3%) 4.4% 12.5% 32.0% 8.5%

Year-to-Date: (3.1%) 5.6% (11.3%) (3.6%) 2.7% 15.8% 1.0%

Quarter-to-Date: 4.7% 8.4% 0.2% 5.8% 8.2% 11.7% 6.4%

Month-to-Date: (2.8%) (4.5%) (0.7%) 0.7% (2.9%) (4.6%) (3.4%)



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global Market Results

29

S&P/TSX Composite Index

S&P 500 Index

MSCI Europe Index

MSCI Japan Index

2020

-3.09%

2020

5.57%

2020

-11.31%

2020

-3.55%



S&P/TSX by Sector

30

S&P/ TSX returns for 2019 and 2020 YTD

S&P/TSX

Composite

Index

Information

TechnologyMaterials

Consumer

StaplesIndustrials Utilities

Consumer

Discretionary

Telecom

ServicesFinancials Real Estate Energy Health Care

2020 (3.1%) 67.9% 25.8% 10.5% 9.3% 9.2% (3.3%) (7.1%) (12.9%) (16.7%) (36.0%) (40.8%)

2019 22.9% 64.9% 23.8% 14.4% 25.5% 37.5% 15.3% 13.0% 21.4% 22.6% 21.7% (10.9%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%



Don’t Fear the Fed S&P 500 Index Following the Federal Reserve Boosting Interest Rates

31

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Dec. 2003 - July 2007

June 1999 - July 2000

Dec. 1993 - April 1995

Mar. 1988 - Mar. 1989

Oct. 1986 - Sept. 1987

June 1985 - Dec. 1985

Feb 1993 - Aug. 1984

July 1980 - June 1981

Jan. 1977 - May 1980

Feb 1972 - July 1974

March 1971 - Aug. 1971

July 1967 - Aug. 1969

July 1961 - Nov. 1966

May 1958 - Nov 1959


Fixed Income



US Fed Overnight Rate Fed Funds: Target Rate (%)

33

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0



Bank of Canada Overnight Rate Bank of Canada Overnight Rate (%)

34

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0



Central Bank Rates

35

Central Bank Rates and 10-Year Gov't Bond Yields - 3 Years to September 30, 2020

Canada United States

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

Canada - Overnight Rate 10-Year GoC

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

US - Overnight Rate 10-Year Treasury



Central Bank Rates Around the Globe

36

Central Bank Rates - 10 Years to September 30, 2020

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Australia

Canada

England

USA (Upper Range)

ECB



10 Year Government Bond Yields

37

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

US

Can

ada

Me

xico

Ge

rman

y

Bri

tain

Fra

nce

Ita

ly

Sp

ain

Gre

ece

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Jap

an

Au

stra

lia

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

d

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ind

ia

Americas Europe Asia

Today

3 months ago

12 months ago

As of September 30, 2020, 3 months ago and 1 year ago (bps)


Mackenzie Investments Investing Insights 38

Managing Downturns



Expansion vs. Recession in the US

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

19

02

19

07

19

10

19

13

19

18

19

20

19

23

19

26

19

29

19

37

19

45

19

48

19

53

19

57

19

60

19

69

19

73

19

80

19

81

19

90

20

01

20

07

20

17

Nu

mb

er

of

Mo

nth

sExpansions

Recessions

Current Expansion

Recession Expansion

16 42

22 27

18 35

11 59

1919-1945 (6 cycles)

1945-2009 (11 cycles)

Average, all cycles:

1854-2009 (33 cycles)

1854-1919 (16 cycles)

Recession is the number of months from peak to trough. Expansion is the number of months from the previous trough to latest peak. For example: 120 months – March 1991 to March 2001 expansion

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research


Mackenzie Investments Investing Insights

Price Return (from trough)

Peak Date Trough Date 3 months 1 year 10 years

Sep 2 1929 Jun 1 1932 332.61 64.20 (80.7%) 33 45.8% 79.2% 37.9%

Jul 3 1956 Dec 3 1957 617.67 432.11 (30.0%) 17 5.8% 26.8% 108.1%

Oct 1 1973 Sep 3 1974 1,329.28 832.98 (37.3%) 11 1.4% 17.2% 186.5%

Nov 28 1980 Jul 8 1982 2,402.23 1,346.35 (44.0%) 19 26.2% 84.1% 153.7%

Aug 13 1987 Oct 28 1987 4,112.86 2,837.79 (31.0%) 3 7.9% 20.0% 137.4%

Apr 22 1998 Oct 5 1998 7,822.25 5,336.15 (31.8%) 6 24.8% 31.0% 102.5%

Sep 1 2000 Oct 9 2002 11,388.80 5,695.33 (50.0%) 25 18.9% 33.5% 115.5%

Jun 18 2008 Mar 9 2009 15,073.13 7,566.94 (49.8%) 9 39.4% 57.5% 112.8%

(43.5%) 16 18.7% 41.7% 119.3%

(37.4%) 13 14.2% 35.4% 130.9%

7.91%

8.58%

Period

Peak Value Trough Value Decline

Months from Peak

to Trough

Average:

Ex-Period 1 (Great Depression):

Annualized Price Return (excludes dividends)

Average:

Ex-Period 1 (Great Depression):

40

S&P/TSX Declines Greater Than 30%



Crisis Market Low 1 Year Later 2 Years Later

The Korean War 7/13/1950 28.8% 39.3%

Cuban Missile Crisis 10/23/1962 33.8% 57.3%

JFK Assassination 11/23/1963 25.0% 33.0%

1969 to 70 Market Break 5/26/1970 43.6% 53.9%

1973 to 74 Market Break 12/6/1974 42.2% 66.5%

1979 to 80 Oil Crisis 3/27/1980 27.9% 5.9%

1987 Stock Market Crash 10/19/1987 22.9% 54.3%

Desert Storm 10/11/1990 21.1% 30.2%

Soviet coup d'état attempt 8/19/1991 11.1% 21.2%

Asian Financial Crisis 4/2/1997 49.3% 76.2%

Dot-com Bubble Crash / Sept 11 / Enron 10/9/2002 33.7% 44.8%

Invasion of Iraq 3/11/2003 38.2% 50.6%

North Korean Missile Test 7/17/2006 25.5% 2.1%

Subprime Mortgage Crisis 3/9/2009 68.6% 95.1%

Average Appreciation 33.7% 45.0%

Snapshots in time of significant negative international events from 1950 to March 2009, and the subsequent change in market value from the

S&P 500 low in that calendar year to one and two years hence.

41

Staying Invested May Improve Returns



Bear Market Decision in September 1974 $10,000 Invested in the S&P 500 on January 31, 1973



Bear Market Decision in September 2002 $10,000 Invested in the S&P 500 on August 31, 2000



Bear Market Decision in March 2009 $10,000 Invested in the S&P 500 on January 31, 2007



7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

45

Recovery from the Previous Recession S&P/TSX Composite Index

Return from bottom to today

113%



Confidence & Volatility



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US Consumer Confidence Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index



Investor Confidence State Street Investor Confidence Index (Reflects Institutional Investors)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global North America Europe Asia



Market Volatility CBOE Volatility Index vs. S&P 500 Index

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

3,100

3,600

4,100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

CBOE Volatility Index (lhs) S&P500 (rhs)



Diversification



Growth of $10,000 over the past 10 years as at September 30, 2020

51

A “Balanced” Approach

$5,000

$7,500

$10,000

$12,500

$15,000

$17,500

$20,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

S&P/TSX Composite Index

Bloomberg Barclays GlobalAgg Total Return

Index Value Unhedged CAD

Balanced (60% TSX/40% Bond Index)



Global Market Results

Equity Market Returns Bond Market Returns

0%50%

100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%

Canada US EU Japan

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Canada US EU Japan

up to September 30, 2020; total returns indexed to 100, local currency up to September 30, 2020; local currency



Long Term Investing



Bull & Bear Markets

-26% -17% -15% -25% -35% -39%-25% -20% -27%

-38%-21%

-43%-17%

85% 81%63%

82%

288%

253%

44%

203%

109%

16%

168%

195%

7%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

19

56

19

57

19

58

19

59

19

60

19

61

19

62

19

63

19

64

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Ch

an

ge

Average gain in bull market: 131%

Average length of bull market: 54 months

Average loss in bear market: (27%)

Average length of bear market: 9 months

Bull & Bear Facts

S&P/ TSX Composite Index to September 30, 2020



Bull & Bear Markets: S&P/TSX Composite

The Risks and Rewards of Investing:

This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets.

For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months.

Investor Behaviour:

According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear).

Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change.

On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment ‘bargains’ to be found.

Investor discipline during bear markets is critical.



S&P 500 Index to September 30, 2020

56

Bull & Bear Markets

104% 90%52%

76% 86% 87%

280%

72%

526%

108%

451%

13%

-14% -22% -16% -29% -43%-14% -17% -30% -15%

-45% -51%-12%

-100%

0%

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600%

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Average gain in bull market: 150%

Average length of bull market: 51 months

Average loss in bear market: (26 %)

Average length of bear market: 13 months

Bull & Bear Facts



Bull & Bear Markets: S&P 500

The Risks and Rewards of Investing:

This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 Total Return since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets.

For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months.

Investor Behaviour:

According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear).

Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change.

On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment ‘bargains’ to be found.

Investor discipline during bear markets is critical.



Real Return of a GIC

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Sep-20

To

tal

Re

turn

s

1 Yr GIC Returns

1 Yr GIC After 40% Marginal Tax

1 Yr GIC Real Return (After Inflation)



Staying the Course



Value of $10,000 invested from September 30, 2000 to September 30, 2020 in CAD

60

20 Years of the S&P 500

$20,900

$18,876

$13,493

$9,753

3.7% 3.2% 1.5% -0.1%

$(10,000)

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

Fully invested all weeks Missed best 1 week Missed best 5 weeks Missed best 10 weeks



20 Years of the S&P/TSX Composite

$15,399 $13,547

$9,443

$6,956

2.2% 1.5% -0.3% -1.8%

$(10,000)

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

Fully invested all weeks Missed best 1 week Missed best 5 weeks Missed best 10 weeks

Value of $10,000 invested from September 30, 2000 to September 30, 2020 in CAD



20 Years of the S&P/TSX Composite Investing $2,000/year in S&P/TSX Over 20 Years

$92,727

$79,058 $85,408

$82,286

$58,590

$-

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

Perfect Timer Dollar Cost Averager New Year's Investor Terrible Timer Bought T-Bills not Stocks



Always Remember… It’s Only a Cycle Market Cycle Relative to Economic Cycle, but Each has Differences

Peak Top

Trough

Mid Recovery Mid Recession

Late Bear

Early Bear

Bottom

Late Bull

Early Bull

For illustrative purposes only

Mackenzie Investments

This document includes forward-looking information that is based on forecasts of future events as of September 30, 2020.

Mackenzie Financial Corporation will not necessarily update the information to reflect changes after that date. Forward-looking statements are not

guarantees of future performance and risks and uncertainties often cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking information or

expectations. Some of these risks are changes to or volatility in the economy, politics, securities markets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, business

competition, capital markets, technology, laws, or when catastrophic events occur. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. In addition,

any statement about companies is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell any security.“

The content of this document (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or

construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or

security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it.

Unlike mutual funds, the returns and principal of GICs are guaranteed.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before

investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

Index performance does not include the impact of fees, commissions, and expenses that would be payable by investors in the investment products that seek

to track an index.

The rate of returns shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of returns on

investment."

64

Disclaimer

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