Quarterly Economic

and Statistical

Update

Quarter 3 2018

Economic Affairs

Cabinet Office

November 2018

OECD May18 Sep 18 Movement

Global 3.8 3.7 -0.2

US 2.9 2.9 0.0

EU 2.2 2.0 -0.2

UK 1.4 1.3 -0.1

IMF July 18 Oct 18 Movement

Global 3.9 3.7 -0.2

US 2.9 2.9 0.0

EU 2.2 2.2 0.0

UK 1.4 1.4 0.0

Source: https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Sep-1

6

Oct

-16

Nov-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

OECD May 18 S 18 Movement

Global 3.9 3.7 -0.2

US 2.8 2.7 -0.1

EU 2.1 1.9 -0.1

UK 1.3 1.2 -0.1

IMF Apr 18 July 18 Movement

Global 3.9 3.7 -0.2

US 2.7 2.5 -0.2

EU 1.9 2.0 +0.1

UK 1.5 1.5 0.0

Growth Forecasts 2018 Growth Forecasts 2019

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and OECD Economic Outlook

Oil Price - Brent Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Sep-1

6

Oct

-16

Nov-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

Sep-1

6

Oct

-16

Nov-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

BOE US Fed

Equities - FTSE 100

Interest Rates including projections

Source: https://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100-historical-data

Bank of England Interest Rate Projections

Source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

Jun-1

6

Jul-16

Aug-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct

-16

Nov-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

£/Eur £/USD

Exchange Rates

Source: http://www.ukforex.co.uk/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/historical-exchange-rates

Employment Estimate based on Income Tax records. The decrease between December 2015 and March 2016 was due to a change in the adjustment factor as a result of the 2016 Census*

Population Estimate

Estimated population movement based on the same quarter in the previous year*

32,500

33,000

33,500

34,000

34,500

35,000

35,500

36,000

Sep-1

3

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Employment

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

-

200

400

600

Sep-1

2

Dec-

12

Mar-

13

Jun-1

3

Sep-1

3

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Total Population Growth Under 65 Population Growth

Isle of Man Inflation Indices

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

RPI

CPI

Inflation as at September 2018 was 2.4% under CPI and 3.9% under RPI.

*: Both Income Tax and the GP data which is used for population estimates are adjusted according to a

ghost factor, which was determined by the difference between what was recorded in the 2016 Census

and the two systems. This factor is updated at each census.

Property Price Inflation

For the 12 months to September 2018, the average house price was £273,034 a flat was £148,059 and

the weight property price was £253,630. The weight property price is a weight average of house and

flat prices based on transaction volumes.

Isle of Man Property Market – Prices compared to 12 months ago

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

House Flat Property Prices

Isle of Man Property Market - Transaction Volumes

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

May-1

6

Sep-1

6

Jan-1

7

May-1

7

Sep-1

7

Jan-1

8

May-1

8

Sep-1

8

House

Flat

For the 12 months to September 2018, the number of houses sold was 1,073 with 201 flats having

been sold.

All property market data is based on the latest available data from the Land Registry. The data is

revised each quarter to take into account new data which has been lodged with the Land Registry;

data is revised for up to 12 months after the initial data is published.

12 Month Rolling Average Electricity Consumption (Units Consumed ‘000s)

For the 3 months to September 2018, 44.31 million units of electricity were consumed domestically

and 48.41million were consumed for non-domestic purposes.

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Sep-1

3

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Domestic Non-Domestic

Planning Approvals and Building Control

For the quarter to September 2018, there were 298 Planning Approvals, while there were 294 Building

Control applications received.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Planning Approvals Building Control Applications Received

Change in Labour Market compared with 12 months ago

As at September 2018, it is estimated that there was 35,166 persons employed, undertaking 51,836

jobs. It is also estimated that there were 7,796 self-employed individuals.

The Persons Employed and Self-Employed data will include a number of individuals who are both

employed and self-employed.

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Persons Employed Jobs Undertaken Self Employed

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Persons Employed Jobs Undertaken Self Employed

Size of the Labour Market

Unemployment

As at September 2018, 331 individuals were unemployed. 31 individuals have been unemployed for 12

months or greater.

Vacancies

Over the quarter to September 2018 there were 1,989 full time vacancies notified to the Job Centre,

and 682 part time vacancies notified.

Movements Onto and Off the Unemployment Register

Over the quarter to September 2018, 406 individuals signed onto the register and 475 signed off,

resulting in a net decrease of -69 individuals over the quarter.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Unemployed Unemployment 12 Month Moving Average

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8Full Time Part Time

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Signing On Signing Off Net Change

Quarterly Changes in Employment by Sector

Annual Changes in Employment by Sector for Seasonal Industries

-60 -40 -20 - 20 40 60 80 100 120

Manufacturing: Engineering

Manufacturing: General

Mining & Quarrying

Utilities

Transport and Communications

Banking

Insurance

Other Finance & Business Services

ICT

Legal & Accountancy Services

Corporate Service Providers

Education

Medical & Health Services

Other Professional Services

Egaming

Miscellaneous Services

Public Administration

-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Manufacturing: Food & Drink

Construction

Wholesale

Retail

Tourist Accommodation

Catering & Entertainment

Sectors with the highest number of vacancies

Catering and Entertainment

27 Vacancies 56 Vacancies

Retail Distribution

46 Vacancies 26 Vacancies

Sectors with highest number of unemployed persons

16 Unemployed 24 Unemployed

15 Unemployed

Tourist Accommodation

120 Vacancies

Medical and Health

Services

57 Vacancies Miscellaneous Services

34 Unemployed

Other Business Services

Other Financial Institutions Retail Distribution

Miscellaneous Services

Construction

28 Unemployed

Medical and Health

Services

18 Unemployed

Education and Teaching

Economic Sector Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 502 483 467 468 472

Manufacturing: Engineering 899 905 897 891 878

Manufacturing: Food & Drink 1,946 1,922 1,703 1,893 2,081

Manufacturing: General 543 542 538 530 532

Mining & Quarrying 68 66 71 71 72

Construction 2,821 2,804 2,770 2,804 2,815

Utilities 516 518 518 529 521

Transport and Communications 1,861 1,851 1,805 1,807 1,829

Wholesale Distribution 526 506 507 498 498

Retail Distribution 4,752 5,016 4,659 4,554 4,525

Banking 2,187 2,192 2,210 2,207 2,174

Insurance 1,949 1,976 1,977 1,953 1,937

Other Finance and Business Services 3,679 3,587 3,204 3,588 3,552

ICT 1,133 1,159 1,192 1,237 1,285

Legal and Accountancy Services 1,230 1,230 1,239 1,266 1,258

Corporate Service Providers 1,477 1,506 1,820 1,529 1,520

Education 5,388 5,414 5,585 5,571 5,666

Medical and Health Services 7,497 7,519 7,298 7,193 7,260

Other Professional Services 1,436 1,483 1,487 1,542 1,590

Tourist Accommodation 854 730 737 778 765

Catering and Entertainment 2,041 1,927 2,205 2,311 2,241

Egaming 748 782 796 805 791

Miscellaneous Services 2,708 2,718 2,695 2,737 2,695

Public Administration 4,753 4,674 4,798 4,829 4,879

Total 51,514 51,510 51,178 51,591 51,836

Jobs by Economic Sector – Quarter 3 2018

Work Permits and National Insurance Numbers to Foreign Nationals

Over the quarter to September 2018 there were 469 new work permits issued, and 363 renewals. 107

national insurance numbers were issued to foreign nationals over the same period.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

New Permits Renewals NI numbers to Foreign Nationals

Economic Sector Total Public Sector Private Sector

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 472 472

Manufacturing: Engineering 878 878

Manufacturing: Food & Drink 2,081 2,081

Manufacturing: General 532 532

Mining & Quarrying 72 72

Construction 2,815 2,815

Utilities 521 370 151

Transport and Communications 1,829 646 1,183

Wholesale Distribution 498 498

Retail Distribution 4525 4,525

Banking 2,174 2,174

Insurance 1,937 1,937

Other Finance and Business Services 3,552 3,552

ICT 1,285 1,285

Legal and Accountancy Services 1258 1,258

Corporate Service Providers 1,520 1,520

Education 5,666 5,182 484

Medical and Health Services 7,260 5,243 2,017

Other Professional Services 1,590 1,590

Tourist Accommodation 765 765

Catering and Entertainment 2,241 2,241

Egaming 791 791

Miscellaneous Services 2,695 2,695

Public Administration 4,879 4,879

Total 51,836 16,320 35,516

Jobs by Economic Sector and Public or Private Sector – Quarter 3 2018

   

Economic Sector Small Medium Large Very Large

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 132 7 0 0Manufacturing: Engineering

489 1 2

Manufacturing: Food & Drink 81 36 0 1Manufacturing: General 48 13 0 0

Mining & Quarrying 4 2 0 0Construction 583 60 2 0Utilities 5 1 2 1Transport and Communications 94 32 1 2Wholesale Distribution 31 19 0 0Retail Distribution 314 85 3 4

Banking 1 3 3 3Insurance 27 14 3 3Other Finance and Business Services 442 70 3 0ICT 83 18 2 1Legal and Accountancy Services 116 29 2 0Corporate Service Providers 31 40 2 1Education 19 10 0 2Medical and Health Services 64 32 4 3

Other Professional Services 370 29 1 0Tourist Accommodation 32 15 2 0Catering and Entertainment 106 74 0 0Egaming 14 5 2 1Miscellaneous Services 542 60 2 0Total 3,187 663 35 24

Employers by Economic Sector and Size – Quarter 3 2018

Very Large: More than 200 employees

Large: 101 to 200 employees

Medium: 10 to 100 employees

Small: 1 to 9 employees

The data provided above only includes currently active employers who are shown as employing at least 1 person. There are some circumstances where an employer may be registered for ITIP and NI but does not have any current employees.

Deposit Base

The latest available data for bank deposits is for June 2018. Sterling deposits amounted to £19.36

whilst non-Sterling amounted to £14.91 billion.

Funds under Management ($ Billion)

The latest available data for funds under management is for June 2018. Funds under management

amounted to $20.59 billion.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun-1

4

Aug-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb-1

5

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-1

6

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-1

7

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec-

17

Feb-1

8

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

£'B

illi

on

Sterling Non Sterling

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Financial Services Act 2008 Licence Holders

As at the September 2018, there were; 14 deposit taking, 45 investment business, and 44 services to

collective investment schemes, 138 corporate services, 101 trust services and 15 other financial

services act licences issued.

New Company Formation

During the quarter to September 2018, 186 1931 Act companies were formed, 212, 2006 Act

Companies were formed and 28 companies converted to 2006 Act Companies.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-16 Dec-16Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

Other

Trust Services

Corporate Services

Services to Collective Investment

Schemes

Investment Business

Deposit Taking

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

1931 Act 2006 Act Conversions to 2006 Act Companies

Total Registered Companies

As at September 2018, there were 9,576 2006 Act Companies on the register and 16,538 1931 Act

Companies registered.

Household Saving and Lending to Households and Businesses

The latest available figures are for June 2018, household saving was £3.58bn, compared with lending to

households of £1.57bn. Lending to non-financial businesses stood at £0.5bn.

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

Jun-1

4

Aug-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb-1

5

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-1

6

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-1

7

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec-

17

Feb-1

8

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

Isle of Man Private Household Lending Isle of Man Private Household Savings

Isle of Man Non-Financial Business Lending

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

2006 Act

1931 Act

Shipping Registry – Number of Ships Registered

As at September 2018, the, total registered tonnage with the Isle of Man Ship Registry was 17,468,482

1,026

1,028

1,030

1,032

1,034

1,036

1,038

1,040

1,042

As at September 2018, there were 1,032 ships registered with the Isle of Man Ship Registry.

16.0

16.2

16.4

16.6

16.8

17.0

17.2

17.4

17.6

17.8

18.0

Ton

nag

e -

Mill

ion

Beef and Sheep Exports

The latest full quarter available data for animal exports is June 2018. During this quarter, 1,006 cattle

were exported, 675 aged sheep and 8,899 sheep aged 6-12 months were exported.

Average Milk Price per Litre

The latest available data for average milk price is June 2018. As at Jun 2018, the average milk price per

litre in the Isle of Man was 27.18 pence, compared with 27.40 pence in the UK and 27.52 in Northern

Ireland.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Pe

nce

pe

r Lit

re

UK IoM NI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Quarterly Beef 6-30 Sheep - Aged Sheep 6-12 Months

The latest available data is for June 2018. During this quarter, £0 of Queenies, (The UK Fisheries Administrations had instigated a statutory closure in respect of Queen scallops in the Irish Sea during the months of April, May and June 2018), £1,88,655 of Scallops, £414 ,117 of Whelk, £66,186 of Crab

and £82,617 of Lobster were landed.

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Queenies

Scallops

Whelk

Crab

Lobster

Value of Fisheries

Isle of Man Government

Government Office

Bucks Road, Douglas

Isle of Man, IM1 3PN

Telephone: (+44) 01624 685752

Email: economics@gov.im

www.gov.im/