WWW.BAKERRISK.COM

BAKER ENGINEERING AND RISK CONSULTANTS, INC. LOCATIONS

SAN ANTONIO | HOUSTON | LOS ANGELES | CHICAGO

TORONTO, CANADA | CHESTER, UNITED KINGDOM

Head Office

3330 Oakwell Court, Suite 100

San Antonio, TX 78218-3024

Tel: (210) 824-5960

Hazards can lead to severe consequences if not managed properly

BakerRisk assists with risk mitigation strategies such as structural upgrades

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTWHY PERFORM A QRA?Determining potential consequences posed by facility operations is a necessary step in the process of developing a comprehensive safety plan. If consequences are significant, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) can be performed to determine risk levels for comparison to risk tolerance criteria and to provide input on decisions regarding mitigation strategies. QRA results can be used to identify cost effective mitigation strategies, provide a defensible basis for dismissing mitigation strategies that cost significantly more to implement than the safety benefit they afford, and to prioritize mitigation strategies selected for implementation as part of a master planning process.

BakerRisk consultants have performed QRAs at a wide range of facilities around the world, including refineries, terminals, gas plants, LNG and LPG operations, pipeline systems, offshore platforms, floating production storage and offloading facilities, oil and gas wells, and chemical, petrochemical, and pharmaceutical plants. A QRA evaluates consequences to people and the likelihood of fire, explosion, and toxic impacts (as applicable) for a facility.

Risk results can be presented in several ways, depending on the intended goal of the study. A graphical way of representing risk is through FN curves, which allow calculated risk values to be visually compared to risk tolerance criteria. Risk dominant scenarios can be presented in table format, which focuses attention on hazards that may be candidates for risk reduction efforts through prevention or consequence mitigation such as improved testing and maintenance, leak detection and isolation, water curtains, and improved startup, shutdown, and lockout/tagout procedures.

Risk can be shown for buildings and process areas by hazard type to focus attention on buildings and plant areas that may be candidates for risk reduction efforts. Risk mitigation efforts include relocating personnel, detection and alarms, protective gear, building upgrades for blast resistance, and flammable or toxic ingress prevention.

Example FN Curve

WWW.BAKERRISK.COM

BAKER ENGINEERING AND RISK CONSULTANTS, INC. LOCATIONS

SAN ANTONIO | HOUSTON | LOS ANGELES | CHICAGO

TORONTO, CANADA | CHESTER, UNITED KINGDOM

Head Office

3330 Oakwell Court, Suite 100

San Antonio, TX 78218-3024

Tel: (210) 824-5960

ABOUT BAKERRISKBaker Engineering and Risk Consultants, Inc. is one of the world’s leading explosion analysis, structural design, and risk engineering companies. BakerRisk provides comprehensive consulting, engineering, laboratory and range testing services to government agencies and private companies who are involved with dangerous, highly hazardous, reactive, or explosive materials.

• Blast Effects & Explosion Testing• Dynamic Structural Analysis and

Design• Risk Engineering• Process Safety• Incident Investigations• Reactive Chemicals Testing &

Management Systems• Materials Engineering and Failure

Analysis

February 2015

THE QRA PROCESS Early in the QRA process, BakerRisk establishes a close working relationship with the client. Together we define objectives, methodology, and tolerance criteria. This ensures a clear path forward, producing a model and report that are accurate, timely, and relevant. Results of the study provide data necessary to make practical safety decisions with defensible bases. To optimize efficiency and ensure consistency, BakerRisk software tools are designed to allow results to be imported between facility siting analyses, QRAs, hazardous area classification analyses, etc.

Through master planning, short and long term needs can be dealt with cost effectively. For instance, a well documented facility siting study or QRA contains a substantial amount of the same data needed for a hazardous area classification study. BakerRisk can discuss how to best achieve these cost savings during the project kick-off meeting or at project initiation.

A QRA can be conducted at the conceptual design phase of a project to assist with decisions such as layout of process equipment, buildings, and location of personnel. A QRA can be performed at the detailed design phase to identify potential issues with plant layout, building locations and structural blast resistance, and mitigation system design. A QRA can also be performed for an operating facility to evaluate risk and identify potential mitigation strategies and evaluate their cost effectiveness.

BakerRisk uses a phased approach to QRA which ensures that significant toxic, fire, and explosion hazards are identified, and related risks are assessed. Hazards predicted to cause significant consequences are analyzed to estimate their frequencies, and results are presented in terms of risk to people, business, or other measures of interest.

SafeSite3G® predicts dispersion in

3D and calculates interaction with congestion / confinement

QRAs are typically performed at various stages of a project