Quantifying the Driver Crisis

Quantifying the Driver Crisis

• There is currently a driver shortage of approximately 60,000 LGV drivers!

• New analysis of the official Labour Force Survey data estimates that the current driver shortage figure is 52,720

• New analysis of the number of LGVs licensed in GB and the number of Driver Qualification Cards (DQCs) in issue estimates a shortfall of 59,973 drivers

Employment in logistics

Source: Skills for Logistics analysis of ONS Annual Population Survey (2012) cited in UKCES Report 2014

Professional driving uptake has not kept pace with rising employment

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q2 2001- Q2 2014

There is no 'unemployed' pool of drivers

Source: Labour Market Statistics February 2015

The age profile stands out …

Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, July - September, 2014

… and is confirmed in DCPC statistics…

…and by members in FTA surveys

The number of licensed LGVs declined through the downturn and is now 386,000

Source: Department for Transport: VEH0103 Licensed vehicles by tax class, Great Britain, annually

But only 326,000 drivers hold a DQC

Age DQCs issued (LGV Full)

18 – 24 5,244

25 - 34 37,324

35 - 44 64,306

45 - 59 175,198

60 - 64 30,336

65+ 13,419

Total 325,827

Only half of driving tests are passed so only 25,000 new entrants a year

Source: DfT 2014 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05)

But only about 20,000 new entrants are qualifying for a DQC

Source: DVSA February 2015

Quantifying the driver shortage

• No of licensed LGVs = 386,000• No of DQCs in issue = 326,000

• Driver shortage = 60,000

• Annual replenishment = 20,000

DCPC was reported as significant factor

FTA Transport Manager Survey 2014

Roadside facilities & driver medicals are the biggest barriers

FTA Transport Manager Survey 2014

What could be done now …

FTA Transport Manager Survey 2014

… and in the longer term

FTA Transport Manager Survey 2014

Quantifying the Driver Crisis

• We are about 60,000 drivers short• We are recruiting about 20,000 drivers a year• Half of all driving tests taken are not passed• Official statistics seem to underestimate the

number of HGV drivers by 100,000• The age profile says the problem will get worse• Plenty of ideas on how to solve the driver crisis• Let the day begin …