Quantifying Pan-Arctic Quantifying Pan-Arctic ChangeChange

Jim Overland1

Nancy Soreide1

Muyin Wang2

Mick Spillane21. PMEL/NOAA, 2. JISAO/UWSeattle,Washington

Reconstructed annual temperature (green) for arctic zone: 65-90N using tree-ring width data from 12 sites near circumpolar treeline and three sites at northern, elevational treeline. By G. Jacoby, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Composite time series of surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1961-90 for the region poleward of 62oN. By I. Polyakov, IARC.

Arctic Annual Temperature

ARCTIC CHANGES OVER THE LAST 35 YEARS

Marine mammals

Barents Sea Cod

Greenland Shrimp

N. American Caribou

Norway DeerArctic Sea Level Pressure

Sea Ice AreaSnow Area Tundra Area

Stratosphere Temperature

Winter Europe TemperaturesSpring Alaska TemperaturePermafrost temperature

Atlantic Water in Arctic Growing Seasons

Index of Persistence of the Greening Trend North of 30oN for the Period 1982-99

Zhou L., et al, 1999: J. Geo. Res., Climate and Vegetation Research

Group, Boston University

Monthly Mean Temperature Anomalies for March During 1990s at 200 hPa based on TOVS Path-P dataset

Thompson, et al. 2001

Difference In Daily Mean Surface Temperature Anomalies

(AO) winters)

Polyakov & Johnson,2000

Vorticity Index

Stott, 2001

Global Mean SAT Anomaly

Venegas & Mysak, 2000

Ice Anomaly

CHANGE DETECTIONCHANGE DETECTION

http://www.unaami.noaa.gov

Figure from Mick about Unaami EOF 1

Wintertime Aleutian Low Sea Level Pressure

50 year cycle plus “long memory-multiprocess” behavior

Coccolithophorid Bloom on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf

During the Anomalous Summer of 1997

Bering Sea Pollock Year Class

0

1

2

3

1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995Year

Year class index

From Bogoslof model

From EBS Assessment"SE" YC

"NW" YC

Gulf of AlaskaGulf of Alaska

Climate IndicesClimate Indices andand

Shrimp-Trawl Shrimp-Trawl CatchesCatches

(Biomass)(Biomass)

(Anderson and Piatt, 1999)(Anderson and Piatt, 1999)

NPPI

BC Coastal SST

GOA Air Temp

GOA Water Temp 250m

No

rmal

ized

An

om

aly

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f to

tal

ca

tch

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

Shrimp Gadid Flatfish Other

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

CONCLUSIONS

• Large Arctic temperature changes over last 100-300 years

• Need change detection protocol

• Strong covariability of atmosphere/sea-ice/terrestrial/biology over last 35 years

• CHANGE DETECTIONCHANGE DETECTION: Use multivariate analysis but based on biocomplexity (nonlinear) concepts