quantifying ethnic religious diversity
TRANSCRIPT
Quantifying Ethnic & Religious
Diversity in New Zealand:Recent Trends and Future Projections
todd nachowitzemail: <[email protected]>
Dept. of Political Science & Public PolicyUniversity of Waikato
New Zealand Diversity Forum 2011Claudelands Events Centre, Hamilton
21 August 2011
Outline of Presentation:
Brief summary of early immigration Some examples of early discrimination Brief history of ethnic & religious diversity in NZ Recent growth of ethnic & religious diversity Summary:
future projections implications
Long history of tangata whenua settlement prior to tau iwi arrivalsPeriod of European settlementFollowed by other ethnic groups, most notably Indians and ChineseFirst Indian settlers arrive:
some arrived in NZ since the late 18th century when British East India Company ships brought supplies to Australian convict settlementsboats often stopped in NZ to pick up suppliesboat crews include Indian seamen & soldiers, some of whom jumped ship in NZ
First known Chinese settlers arrive:first known settler in 1842 in Nelson1866: Chinese begin to arrive to work Otago goldfields
Small populations of Lebanese Christian settlers in Dunedin & Auckland areas
Settlement in Aotearoa & Early Migrant Arrivals 1820-1920:
Early Migrant Arrivals:Early discrimination: some examples
1926-1927: Formation of “White New Zealand League” in Pukekohe, where Indian market gardeners were the target of a racist campaign started by other growers; became a national movement to oppose both Indian & Chinese immigration, which was perceived as “a threat to the racial integrity and economic prosperity of European New Zealanders”
7/16/09 11:46 AMPapers Past — NZ Truth — 24 March 1927 — Aliens Should Be Barred
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Papers Past > NZ Truth > 24 March 1927 > Page 1 > Aliens Should Be Barred
Aliens Should Be BarredNZ Truth , Issue 1112, 24 March 1927, Page 1
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Editorial cartoons
Source: New Zealand Truth
24 March 1927
This discrimination was supported by local media: “It is time, however, that New Zealand closed its doors to Asiatics, and in its advocacy of this policy, the White New Zealand League, which has recently been holding meetings in Wellington, has ‘NZ Truth’s’ full support.”
Early Migrant Arrivals 1820-1920:
Source: New Zealand Free Lance, 7 Jan 1905, artist: John Blomfield
Source: NZ Truth, 2 June 1917 Source: NZ Observer, 26 April 1919
Early Migrant Arrivals 1820-1920:
Source: NZ Free Lance, 1 Dec 1920 Source: NZ Observer, 26 Jun 1920
Early Migrant Arrivals 1820-1920:
Maori & European Populations
0
275,000
550,000
825,000
1,100,000
1858
1861
1864
1867
1871
1874
1878
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
59,41399,021
172,158218,668
256,393299,514
414,412
489,927
578,482626,658
703,314
772,695
888,572
1,008,453
1,099,268
0 0 038,540 37,502 45,470 43,595 44,097 41,969 41,953 39,832 43,112 47,701 49,829 49,771
Popu
latio
nEthnicity in New Zealand 1820-1920:
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1858-1916
Maori European
Other Populations of Note
0
1,250
2,500
3,750
5,000
1858
1861
1864
1867
1871
1874
1878
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
151
195 240361 431 459
9 0 6 0 0 46 24 6 15181
4,816
4,433
5,000
4,542 4,444
3,859
2,963
2,570 2,630
2,147
Popu
latio
n
Ethnicity in New Zealand 1820-1920:
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1858-1916
Chinese Indian Lebanese Pacific
Maori, European & Pacific Populations
0
750,000
1,500,000
2,250,000
3,000,000
1921 1926 1936 1945 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986
334 988 0 0 3,624 8,103 14,340 26,271 45,413 61,354 89,697 99,135
1,213,4751,342,082
1,484,5081,592,876
1,823,769
2,016,287
2,216,886
2,426,3522,561,280
2,693,186 2,696,568 2,651,595
52,751 63,670 82,326 98,744 115,676 137,151 167,086 201,159 227,414 270,035 279,081 295,659
Popu
latio
n
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1921-1986
Note: No censuses were taken in 1931 and 1941
Maaori European Pacific
Ethnicity in New Zealand 1921-1990:
Second Wave of Immigration
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
1921 1926 1936 1945 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986
671 987 1,200 1,5542,425
3,1514,179
6,8437,807
9,247
11,244
15,810
3,226 3,374 2,943
4,9405,732
6,731
8,524
10,283
12,818
14,860
18,480
20,259
Popu
latio
n
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1921-1986
Note: No censuses were taken in 1931 and 1941
Chinese Indian
Ethnicity in New Zealand 1921-1990:
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
1991 1996 2001 2006167,070 202,233 231,801 265,974
429,429
2,783,0282,879,085 2,871,432
2,609,592
434,847523,374 526,281 565,329
Popu
latio
n
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1991-2006
Ethnicity in New Zealand 1991-2006:Maori, European & Pacific Populations
Maaori European New Zealander Pacific
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
1991 1996 2001 2006
6,330
15,288
24,084
34,746
30,606
42,408
61,803
104,625
44,790
78,663
100,203
147,594
Popu
latio
n
Sources: NZ Census of Population and Dwellings, 1991-2006
Ethnicity in New Zealand 1991-2006:Other Populations
Chinese Indian MELAA
Overview of Ethnic Diversity in New Zealand1906 1956 2006
Other1.3%
Maori5.0%
European93.7%
Moriori: 30 0.00%
Offshore PI: 12,340 1.30%
Chinese: 2,570 0.27%
Indian: 6 0.00%
Lebanese: 361 0.04%
Other:
Pop: 948,649
Other1.0%
Maori6.3%
European92.7%
Pop: 2,174,062
Pacific: 8,103 0.37%
Chinese: 6,731 0.31%
Indian: 3,151 0.15%
Other:
Other: 430,923 11.16%NZer: 429,429 11.12%Other: 1,494 0.04%
Asian: 354,552 9.20%Chinese: 147,594 3.82%Indian: 104,625 2.71%Korean: 30,792 0.008%Filipino: 16,938 0.004%Japanese: 11,910 0.003%
Sri Lankan: 7,041 0.002%Cambodian: 6,915 0.002%
Thai: 6,057 0.002%
Pop: 4,027,947
Other11.2%
Asian9.2%MELAA
0.9%
Pacific6.9%
Maori14.6%
European67.6%
Ethnic Diversity: Average annual percent change, 1996-2006
Total Population
Maori
European
Pacific Islander
Asian
MELAA 12.7%
10.4%
3.2%
0.9%
0.8%
1.1%
Percent change
FUTURE PROJECTIONS:National Ethnic Population Projection 2006-2026 (Statistics NZ)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2006 2016 2026
10%13%
16%
7% 8%10%
15% 16% 17%
77%73%
69%
Perc
ent
of p
opul
atio
n
European Maori Pacific Islander Asian
FUTURE PROJECTIONS:National Ethnic Population Projection 2006-2026 (Statistics NZ)
EthnicityProjected annual
population growth to 2026
European 0.3%
Maori 1.4%
Pacific Islander 2.4%
Asian 3.4%
Tracking Religious Diversity
An early example from 1871
Source: New Zealand Census 1871
Tracking Religious Diversity2011: We’ve come a long way...
Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2011 Census
Religious Diversity in New Zealand1906 1956 2006
Other4.7%
Christian95.3%
Object to answering: 24,325 2.75%Not stated: 1,884 0.21%Baha’i: 0Buddhist: 1,452 0.17%Hindu: 12 0.01%Islam: 16 0.01%Jain: 0Judaism: 1,867 0.21%Sikh: 0Zoroastrian: 0 0.01%No religion: 1,709 0.19%Don’t know: 0Outside scope: 0Other: 1,410 0.17%
Pop: 948,649
Other12.6%
Christian87.4%
Pop: 2,174,062
Object to answering: 173,569 7.98%Not stated: 16,252 0.75%Baha’i: 107 0.01%Buddhist: 450 0.01%Hindu: 1,597 0.07%Islam: 200 0.01%Jain: 1 0.01%Judaism: 3,823 0.18%Sikh: 133 0.01%Zoroastrian: 4 0.01%No religion: 12,651 0.58%Don’t know: 243 0.01%Outside scope:Other:
Object to answering: 242,610 6.50%Not stated: 249,711 6.70%Baha’i: 2,772 0.07%Buddhist: 52,362 1.40%Hindu: 64,392 1.72%Islam: 36,072 0.96%Jain: 111 0.01%Judaism: 6,858 0.18%Sikh: 9,507 0.25%Zoroastrian: 1,071 0.03%No religion: 1,297,104 34.60%Don’t know: 1,743 0.05%Outside scope: 30,945 0.83%Other: 1.10%
Pop: 4,027,947
Other44.1%
Christian56.0%
Recent Change in Select Christian Denominations
Denomination 1996 Census 2006 Census Percent change 1996-2006
Total Christian 2,143,995 2,027,418 -5.4%
Anglican 631,764 554,925 -12.2%
Catholic 473,112 508,437 7.5%
Presbyterian 470,442 400,839 -14.8%
Christian nfd 186,891 186,234 -0.4%
Methodist 121,650 121,806 0.1%
Pentecostal 69,333 79,155 14.2%
Baptist 53,613 56,913 6.2%
Latter Day Saints 41,166 43,539 5.8%
Recent Change in non-Christian Religions
Religion: 1996 Census 2006 Census Percent change 1996-2006
Bahá’í 3,111 2,772 -10.9%
Buddhism 28,131 52,362 +86.1%
Chinese religions 699 912 +30.5%
Hinduism 25,551 64,392 +152.0%
Islam 13,545 36,072 +166.3%
Jainism 27 111 +311.1%
Japanese religions 234 384 +64.1%
Judaism 4,809 6,858 +42.6%
Maori religion 1,257 2,412 +91.9%
Sikhism 2,817 9,507 +237.5%
Spiritualism/New Age 9,786 19,800 +102.3%
Zoroastrianism 216 1,071 +395.8%
Religious Diversity: Average annual percent change, 1996-2006
Baha’i
Buddhism
Chinese religions
Christianity
Hinduism
Islam
Jainism
Japanese religions
Judaism
Maori religions
Sikhism
Spiritualism/New Age
Zoroastrianism 39.6%
10.2%
23.8%
9.2%
4.3%
6.4%
31.1%
16.6%
15.2%
-0.5%
3.1%
8.6%
-1.1%
Percent change
Ethnicity and Religious Affiliation:Europeans
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Budd
hism
Christ
ianity
Hinduis
mIsl
am
Judais
mO
ther
No Reli
gion
Obje
ct
6.0%
37.7%
0.8%0.2%0.2%0.1%
57.7%
0.4%
Based on 2006 Census data
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Budd
hism
Christ
ianity
Hinduis
mIsl
am
Judais
mO
ther
No Reli
gion
Obje
ct
8.6%
36.5%
1.4%0.1%0.2%0.2%
59.1%
0.4%
Based on 2006 Census data
Ethnicity and Religious Affiliation:Maori
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
90%
Budd
hism
Christ
ianity
Hinduis
mIsl
am
Judais
mO
ther
No Reli
gion
Obje
ct
5.1%
14.0%
0.7%0.1%0.4%0.4%
83.2%
0.2%
Based on 2006 Census data
Ethnicity and Religious Affiliation:Pacific Islanders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Budd
hism
Christ
ianity
Hinduis
mIsl
am
Judais
mO
ther
No Reli
gion
Obje
ct
3.6%11.0%
2.6%3.2%
32.9%
0.2%
49.3%
0.4%
Based on 2006 Census data
Ethnicity and Religious Affiliation:MELAA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Budd
hism
Christ
ianity
Hinduis
mIsl
amO
ther
No Reli
gion
Obje
ct
3.4%
31.2%
3.6%5.8%
17.6%
29.2%
11.4%
Based on 2006 Census data
Ethnicity and Religious Affiliation:Asians
Religious Diversity of Largest Asian Ethnicities
Chinese
Indian
Korean
Filipino
Japanese
Sri Lankan
Cambodian
Thai
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
8.5%
12.7%
3.8%
62.0%
3.4%
20.2%
4.8%
58.4%
0.9%
1.4%
3.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
10.9%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
23.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
54.9%
0.1%
77.1%
73.0%
40.7%
18.2%
0.2%
5.8%
0.3%
12.5%
9.4%
8.1%
27.9%
11.7%
94.1%
72.2%
16.6%
22.8%
3.2%
4.2%
0.9%
4.9%
1.6%
1.5%
2.0%
5.0%
Object Christianity Buddhism HinduismIslam Other No Religion
Some Points to Consider Based on 2006 Census Data:
Increase in those affiliating with non-Christian religions is mainly attributed to migrants, particularly from Asia
The rise of those reporting ‘No Religion’: numbers have doubled since 1991 to where 1.3 million people, 35% of the population, now report no religious affiliation at all. This comprises the largest single category of respondents after Christianity.
The percentage of those who “Object to answer” is larger than the sum of all the non-Christian religions combined, or roughly 6.5% of the total population.
Almost 8 out of every 10 Hindus (78.8%) were born overseas More than one-third (36.1%) of overseas-born Buddhists arrived in New Zealand less than five years ago
Of those born overseas, 49.8% of Hindus and 48% of Muslims had arrived in New Zealand less than five years ago
Other12.6%
Christian87.4%
1956Pop: 2,174,062
2006Pop: 4,027,947
Other44.1%
Christian56.0%
Other56.6%
Christian43.4%
2026Pop: 5,058,200
Summary of Religious Diversity in New Zealandand Future Trends
Implications of Change in Ethnic Diversity on Religious Diversity in New Zealand
Changing ethnic composition will have significant implications for religious diversity in New Zealand
In terms of percentages of the population, as the European population declines in relation to rising Maori, Pacific Islander, Asian & MELAA populations, New Zealand will continue to be increasingly religiously diverse
This means increasing numbers of adherents to non-Christian religious traditions, as well as significant increases in Christian denominations that are well represented in immigrant populations
The importance of migration to and from New Zealand will remain an important factor in Religious Diversity
A robust, culturally & religiously diverse population can be strong indicators of a nation’s internal security
New Zealand must keep abreast of the increasing discrimination, ethnic tension, racism and violence now faced by many countries by maintaining & strengthening policies designed to foster and improve social cohesion in our communities
Continued support of our cultural, religious, and linguistic diversity policies through both governmental and non-governmental agencies is therefore of utmost importance to our national security
Moving beyond mere tolerance of difference and into a sphere of active engagement between cultures and faiths is not only urgent, but increasingly vital in today’s globalised world
In the next decades, the onus for this future should become less reliant on government and non-governmental agencies and more reliant on our ethnic & religious communities and on ourselves as individuals to help promote necessary cultural and religious literacies amongst our increasingly diverse populations.
Diversity in New Zealand: Some Final Thoughts
Quantifying ethnic & religious diversity
Recent Trends and Future Projections
todd nachowitzemail: <[email protected]>
Dept. of Political Science & Public PolicyUniversity of Waikato