q32013 report

VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se

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2011

Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.


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2011



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2013

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

2013-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Num

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Fam

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Month

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2010 2011 2012 2013

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,4682011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,7582012 5,068 5,775 7,213 7,698 9,064 9,740 8,664 9,026 7,213 7,261 7,400 6,8382013 5,528 5,915 7,443 8,623 10,429 10,727 10,302 10,002 7,967

The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 13.48% higher than the third quarter of 2012. This year-over-year increase reflects strong sales in July and August and a moderate increase in September. The decrease in sales from August 2013 to September 2013 (20.4%) was similar to the decline Virginia experienced last year, 20.08% from August 2012 to September 2012.

Year-over-year sales indicate continued recovery, but the sharp decline in sales this September may be a sign that the recovery is slowing. Sales performance over the previous three years is not consistent, so we cannot reliably predict our trajectory this winter. We will likely continue to see year-over-year improvement, but those improvements may be small since the Virginia market is heavily influenced by government spending. The October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may be reflected in the housing market.




27,733

20,798

18,558

17,105

24,906

23,001

19,09918,056

26,502

24,911

21,505

18,886

29,779

28,271

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Num

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Quarter

Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

In the third quarter we experienced a decline in home sales, but maintained a year-over-year increase. This seasonal decline is normal and September sales were higher than last year, but economic stress from the October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may negatively affect sales throughout the winter.

+13.5%YOY




93,279

87,921

83,630 84,194

81,36783,570 84,111 85,062

86,65888,568

90,974 91,804

95,081

98,441

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Num

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Quarter

Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This quarter marks approximately two years of market improvements since the post-tax-credit low in the second quarter of 2011.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q3 figure (98,441 sales) includes home sales from October 2012 through September 2013. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over four quarters of annualized data.

Post Tax-Credit Decline

MARKET RECOVERY!




Region 2012-Q3 2013-Q3 ChangeCentral Valley 1,429 1,636 14.5%

Central Virginia 3,843 4,451 15.8%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,656 6,468 14.4%

Northern Virginia 11,379 12,698 11.6%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,893 2,230 17.8%

Southside Virginia 384 426 10.9%Southwest Virginia 315 356 13.0%

All of Virginia 24,899 28,265 13.5%

Central Valley+14.5%

Northern Virginia+11.6%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+17.8%

Southwest Virginia+13.0% Southside Virginia

+10.9%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+14.4%

Central Virginia+15.8%

Regional Changes in Sales2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3 Units

The entire state experienced substantial year-over-year increases in sales in the third quarter as shown in the map and chart above. However, most regions experienced little change in sales from 2013-Q2 to the 2013-Q3: the Central Valley (+2.2%), Central Virginia (-3%), Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay (+1.7%), Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (+0.9%), Southside (-0.9%), and Southwest Virginia (+0.3%). Northern Virginia experienced a more significant decrease (8.9%) from the second to third quarter.




$239

,900

$249

,900

$232

,500

$210

,000

$232

,694

$235

,000

$220

,000

$215

,000

$249

,500

$248

,000

$241

,000

$232

,600

$269

,000

$254

,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Med

ian

Sale

s Pr

ice

Quarter

Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.42% over the past year to $254,000 for all residential sales. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 1.64% over 2010, as measured by third quarter sales data. The decrease in median price has been fairly steady throughout the third quarter and is an assurance that Virginia home prices are stable.

+1.64%

+2.42%




Region 2012-Q3 2013-Q3 ChangeCentral Valley $200,000 $214,000 7.0%

Central Virginia $187,900 $205,000 9.1%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $209,900 $214,950 2.4%

Northern Virginia $352,000 $375,000 6.5%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $155,000 $161,000 3.9%

Southside Virginia $80,000 $80,000 0.0%Southwest Virginia $112,000 $114,350 2.1%

All of Virginia $249,500 269,000 7.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+3.9%

Central Valley+7.0%

Northern Virginia+6.5%

Southwest Virginia2.1% Southside Virginia

0.0%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+2.4%

Central Virginia+9.1%

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3

Nearly every region in Virginia experienced year-over-year increases in median sales price which is evidence of a healthy market recovery. The decline in prices from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3 (see page 6) was fairly consistent throughout the state.




8,198

6,410

5,446

4,503

7,307

6,789

5,275

4,866

8,197

7,684

6,444

5,489

9,827

9,127

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Mill

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of D

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Quarter

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2013 ($9.1B) was a strong 19% increase from the second quarter of 2012 ($7.7B). Year-over-year increases in volume are clear evidence of continued market recovery.

19% YOY




7982

91

104

94 93

100103

85 8488

91

71 71

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Aver

age

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Quarter

Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Days on the market remain historically low. Time on the market decreased 16% from the third quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the third quarter of 2013. Although the quarterly average days on the market remained the same from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3, days on the market continued to increase through September.

-16%YOY




2,892

7,090

6,438

4,517

2,773

3,114

926

398

80

43

2,980

7,127

6,622

4,657

2,987

3,555

990

440

89

52

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M - $2M

$2M +

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Pric

e R

ange

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2013-Q2 2013-Q3

-17%

-10%

-10%

-6%

-12%

-7%

-3%

-3%

-3%

-1%

Home sales decreased in all price ranges this quarter, reflecting the overall decline in sales primarily in September. The most substantial decreases in sales were for homes sold for more than $400K. Although overall price decreases may be influencing this distribution (as prices decrease homes move from higher price categories or lower price categories), the significant decrease in sales of homes in these ranges ($400K-$2M) should not be entirely attributed to seasonal price decreases. A number of factors, possibly restricted inventory and unfavorable economic conditions could be compounding seasonal declines in sales.




9,02610,002

423,000465,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13(p)

Aug- 13(p)

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$248,000$265,000

$185,500$212,200

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13(p)

Aug-13(p)

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

The median sales price in Virginia remains higher than the national average, but tracked down this quarter . US sales remained steady through July and August, while Virginia prices began to decline.

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. However, U.S. sales continued to increase into the third quarter while Virginia sales decreased.




Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2013

(U.S. rate = 7.3 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

6.9% 6.7%6.4% 6.5% 6.6%

6.2%5.9% 6.0% 5.9%

5.6%5.3% 5.5%

5.8%

4%5%5%6%6%7%7%8%

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3(p)

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

Virginia’s unemployment rate increased in the third quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in August, despite the increase in unemployment.

2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.




4.45% 4.41%

4.85%4.66%

4.31%

4.01%3.92%

3.80%

3.54%3.36%

3.50%3.69%

4.44%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

5.0%

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

3.9%3.8%

4.1%

3.9%

3.5%3.3%

3.2%3.0%

2.8%2.7% 2.7%

2.9%

3.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

Mortgage interest rates increased faster in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three quarters. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue, but likely at a slow pace. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low.




The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

q32013 report

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