q3 fy17 performance update - microsoft · 2017-11-29 · q3 fy17 performance update we’re really...

Q3 FY17 PERFORMANCE UPDATEQUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

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DAY 1

WEEK 1

WEEK 2

FLY BUYS PRE-REGISTRATION

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17

LPG CUSTOMERS

70t of Bobtail

deliveries

Total hydro generation

Up 16.5 % on Q3 FY16

Q3 FY17 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

We’re really excited to be offering the Fly Buys benefits for customers including, for the first time, Fly Buys points on dual fuel bills for electricity and bottled gas.

Genesis Energy moved further towards its customer-centric focus with the announcement that it will be joining the Fly Buys programme from May 2017 as part of its strategy on rewarding customer loyalty. The attraction of the programme has already been evidenced by over 60,000 customers pre-registering in the short time since it was announced. Whilst demand was lower during the period, prices increased in both the mass and TOU markets whilst LPG customer growth continued its strong momentum up 4.7% on Q2 FY17.

Hydro inflows continue to dominate the New Zealand market, particularly in the North Island, and Genesis Energy benefitted with hydro generation up 16.5% on Q3 FY16. National storage levels have moderated towards long term averages but the above average rainfallsaw suppressed wholesale prices continue with the GWAP down 23.2%. Offsetting this was the weighted average fuel cost declining by 22.0% with no requirement to run the Rankines during the quarter.

Genesis Energy invested in long term value creation with the increased ownership in the Kupe Joint Venture to 46% effective from 1 January 2017. This increased position led to higher production in the quarter, with gas production up 0.5PJ on Q3 FY16. The joint venture has moved towards larger and less frequent oil shipments to seek cost benefits from economies of scale whilst oil pricesremained consistently higher than the comparable period last year.

3

A significant step forward towards customer centricity

Q3 FY17 Performance Summary

“

“Customer Segment

Wholesale Segment

Kupe Segment

- James Magill - EGM Product Marketing

Q3 FY17 PERFORMANCE UPDATE 4

• The launch of Flybuys in early March has already seen significant momentum with over 60,000 pre-registrations at the end of the quarter. Genesis Energy has a number of exciting initiatives underway to leverage value from the programme for customers

• Mass market electricity sales were down 3.7% on Q3 FY16, driven by a decrease in national demand of 0.7% combined with a reduction in ICPs. However prices were up 1.3%

• Time of Use ‘TOU’ electricity sales were up 9.1% on prior year reflecting volume gained from new customers and connections from the Spark contract

• Genesis Energy is disclosing retail netback for the first time this quarter, which was relatively flat on the prior comparable period

• A positive trend in Genesis Energy Net Promoter score continues for both brands which is also reflected in increased customer satisfaction

Customer Segment Performance

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%

NET PROMOTER SCORE

Genesis Energy Energy Online

Price increases underpin a solid quarter

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GROSS MONTHLY SALES BY ACQUISITION CHANNEL

Door-to-door Outbound Online Kiosks


• Q3 FY17 saw the launch of the Local Energy Project, New Zealand’s first real world research and development energy community. The launch has been extremely successful to date, with several sales of solar and batteries completed, 50 customers at quote stage and another 150 with registered interest

• Hiring of the SME field force was complete at end of Q3 FY17 to support focus on growth in this segment. Some early wins have already been delivered with the inclusion of approximately 3,000 new ICPs from Spark during the quarter

• Genesis Energy’s new bobtail truck delivered 70tonnes of LPG to customers supporting the bulk segment and is now 79% utilised whilst LPG residential 45kg market share continues to grow, currently at 9.6% compared to 8.5% in Q3 FY16

Customer Segment Performance

Momentum continues in the ‘Innovate’ strategic priority

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Market Share %KilotonnesRolling 12m Sales

Rolling 12m Market Share (RHS)

Source: Genesis Energy/LPGA/MBIE

ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL LPG 45KG MARKET SHARE BY VOLUMES


• Wet weather in the North Island supported increased hydro generation with Genesis Energy’s total hydro generation increasing 16.5% on the prior comparable quarter

− National storage levels have now moderated back ending the quarter at 97% of long term average due to below average inflows in the South Island

− Tekapo storage levels are at 81% of the long run average whilst Waikaremoana storage levels are at 136% of the long run average

• The use of hydro generation meant the Huntly Rankine units were not used during the quarter

• The dominance of renewable generation in the New Zealand market from continued high storage levels has further supressed the average price received for generation (GWAP) to $52/MWh for Q3 FY17, a 23% decline on Q3 FY16. Offsetting this is a 22% drop in the weighted average fuel cost of $31.61/MWh

Wholesale Segment Performance

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Coal Gas

COAL vs GAS USE IN RANKINES

GWh

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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

NEW ZEALAND DAILY STORAGE

91 year Average 12month Rolling

A wet third quarter in the North Island


• Gas production of 2.4PJ was up 0.5 PJ on Q3 FY16 reflecting the added contribution of 0.8PJ from the newly acquired 15% interest. On a comparable basis production was down 0.3 PJ due to additional gas purchased in Q3 FY16 as a substitute to coal use in the Rankines

• One oil shipment occurred in the quarter. Genesis Energy’s share was 113kbbls, of which 31kbbls was inventory from the acquisition of the 15% NZOG interest. The joint venture has sought cost benefits from economies of scale by shipping larger cargoes less frequently

• LPG sales in Q3 FY17 amounted to 9.7kt which is down 1.1kt from a combination of lower gas production and reduced yields. LPG yields are lower than expected as the joint venture prepares to rebuild propane compressors before the end of the financial year

• Brent Crude oil prices for Q3 FY17 have been consistently higher than prior year, with the Q3 FY17 average price of $53.78 being 59% above Q3 FY16

• Oil sales volumes for the remainder of FY2017 are 86% hedged at US$57.90/bbl

Kupe Segment Performance

$20

$30

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USD/bbl

BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

FY2017 FY2016

First quarter of 46% ownership

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TOTAL JV KUPE GAS PRODUCTION (PJ)Quarterly Production Volumes Rolling 12 months production volumes (RHS)


• As part of its innovation and customer-centric focus Genesis Energy held its inaugural ‘Hackathon’ in March. This brought together over 120 employees in an internal innovation competition, with 11 teams in 48 hours creating several new exciting concepts around the proposition of “reimagining the customer experience through the use of mobile and/or digital technologies”, some of which will now be progressed to development

• Genesis Energy also continued its long term partnership with the Department of Conservation around protection of the endangered Whio (blue duck) with Whio Awareness month in March

• During Q3 FY17, there were two medically treated injuries. The total recordable injury frequency rate (TRIFR) remains at historically low levels down 42% on the previous quarter

Other Company Highlights

0.65

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Lost Time MedicalRestricted Work Employee TRIFR

SAFETY STATISTICS


Metrics

CORE Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 % Change Var. YTD FY17 YTD FY16 % Change Var.

CUSTOMER

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - MM ($/MWh) $247.31 $244.05 1.3% $3.27 $241.41 $237.47 1.7% $3.93

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - TOU ($/MWh) $114.29 $110.81 3.1% $3.48 $116.06 $111.19 4.4% $4.88

Mass Market Electricity Sales (GWh) 882 916 -3.7% (34) 3,200 3,310 -3.3% (109)

TOU Electricity Sales (GWh) 354 324 9.1% 30 947 945 0.2% 2

Electricity Sales - Retail (GWh) 1,235 1,240 -0.4% (5) 4,147 4,255 -2.5% (108)

Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) 453 372 21.6% 81 1,411 1,230 14.7% 181

Electricity Purchases - Retail (GWh) 1,312 1,314 -0.2% (2) 4,377 4,482 -2.3% (105)

Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) 296 244 21.5% 53 1,029 862 19.3% 167

Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) $52.01 $68.25 -23.8% ($16.24) $53.01 $64.02 -17.2% ($11.02)

LWAP/GWAP Ratio (%) 100% 101% -0.8% -1% 100% 100% -0.3% 0%

Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price ($/GJ) $36.45 $37.23 -2.1% ($0.78) $27.49 $27.03 1.7% $0.46

Mass Market Gas Sales (PJ) 0.6 0.5 10.5% 0.1 3.1 3.1 0.7% 0.0

TOU Gas Sales (PJ) 0.6 0.6 -9.2% -0.1 2.4 2.3 0.5% 0.0

Retail Gas Sales (PJ) 1.2 1.2 -0.4% 0.0 5.4 5.4 0.6% 0.0

Retail Gas Purchases (PJ) 1.2 1.2 -0.4% 0.0 5.5 5.5 1.1% 0.1


Metrics

CORE Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 % Change Var. YTD FY17 YTD FY16 % Change Var.

GENERATION

Gas (GWh) 718 887 -19.0% (169) 2,150 2,367 -9.2% (217)

Coal (GWh) - 173 -100.0% (173) 53 626 -91.6% (573)

Total Thermal (GWh) 718 1,060 -32.3% (342) 2,203 2,993 -26.4% (790)

Hydro (GWh) 689 592 16.5% 98 2,302 2,022 13.9% 280

Wind (GWh) 5 6 -8.2% (0) 17 19 -11.2% (2)

Total Renewable (GWh) 694 597 16.3% 97 2,319 2,041 13.6% 278

Total Generation (GWh) 1,412 1,657 -14.8% (245) 4,522 5,034 -10.2% (512)

Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) $52.07 $67.79 -23.2% ($15.72) $52.96 $63.75 -16.9% ($10.79)Generation Emissions (ktCO2) 287 555 -48.2% (267) 948 1,626 -41.7% (678) Generation Carbon Intensity (tCO2/GWh) 203 335 -39.2% (131) 210 323 -35.1% (113)

WHOLESALE

Gas Purchases (PJ) 9.9 11.0 -9.6% -1.1 33.2 35.0 -5.2% -1.8

Coal Purchases (PJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.0 -98.2% -2.9

Wholesale Gas Sales (PJ) 3.3 2.8 16.7% 0.5 11.3 11.4 -1.1% -0.1

Wholesale Coal Sales (PJ) 0.2 0.2 16.9% 0.0 0.6 0.7 -14.7% -0.1

Gas Used In Internal Generation (PJ) 5.4 7.0 -22.5% -1.6 16.6 18.3 -9.3% -1.7

Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) 0.0 2.0 -100.0% -2.0 0.7 7.1 -89.7% -6.4

Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) $31.61 $40.54 -22.0% ($8.93) $30.91 $36.84 -16.1% ($5.93)

Coal Stockpile - closing balance (kilotonnes) 351.2 500.1 -29.8% (148.9)


Metrics

* New metric

OPTIMISE Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 % Change Var. YTD FY17 YTD FY16 % Change Var.

CUSTOMER

Net Promoter Score - Genesis Energy (%) 3% -6% 150.0% 9.0%

Electricity Market Share (%) 24.9% 25.8% -3.4% -0.9%

Gas Market Share (%) 38.2% 39.5% -3.3% -1.3%

Electricity Customers Excluding Vacants (#) 513,209 524,122 -2.1% (10,913)

Electricity Vacant Connections 20,452 21,151 -3.3% -699.0

Gas Customers Excluding Vacants (#) 105,433 106,908 -1.4% (1,475)

Gas Vacant Connections 4,133 3,444 20.0% 689.0

Retail Netback ($/MWh) $84.74 $84.81 -0.1% ($0.07) $82.78 $83.17 -0.5% ($0.39)

GENERATION

Rankine Output (GWh) -4 291 -101% -295.7 181 874 -79.2% -692.3

Rankines Fueled by Coal (%) 0% 59% -100% -59% 29% 72% -59% -43%

CORPORATE

Headcount (FTE) 775 856 -9.5% -81.2

Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate 0.37 0.64 -42.2% -0.3


Metrics

*from 1 January 2017, metrics include 46% ownership

* New metric

INNOVATE Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 % Change Var. YTD FY17 YTD FY16 % Change Var.

CUSTOMER

LPG Customer Connections (#) 18,334 14,717 24.6% 3,617

Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) 935 670 39.6% 265 3,505 2,872 22.0% 633

Other LPG sales (tonnes) 3,413 4,748 -28.1% (1,335) 3,786 6,642 -43.0% (2,856)

Wholesale LPG Sales (tonnes) 5,362 1,759 204.8% 3,602 14,013 11,740 19.4% 2,273

INVEST Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 % Change Var. YTD FY17 YTD FY16 % Change Var.

KUPE

Gas Production (PJ) 2.4 1.9 28.6% 0.5 6.2 5.3 17.1% 0.9

Oil Production (kbbl) 127.7 110.3 15.7% 17.4 323.5 317.7 1.8% 5.8Oil Sales (kbbl) 112.5 131.9 -14.7% -19.5 259.2 290.5 -10.8% -31.2Average Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) $53.78 $33.89 58.7% $19.89 $49.70 $42.62 16.6% $7.08Oil Hedge Levels (%) - Balance of FY 86% 106% -18.9% -20.0%

LPG Sales (kt) 9.7 7.6 26.4% 2.0 21.2 21.7 -2.4% -0.5

LPG Production (kt) 9.5 8.1 0.2 1.5 21.1 22.2 -0.1 -1.1


Glossary

CUSTOMER

Net Promoter Score Based on survey question "How likely would you be to recommend Genesis Energy/Energy Online to your friends or family?"

Electricity Market Share Market share based on Electricity Authority data for the end of quarter

Gas Market Share Market share based on Gas Industry Company data for the end of quarter

Customer Connection Electricity and gas customers are defined by number of connections (ICP).

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - $/MWh Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount

Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price - $/MWh Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount

Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives.

LPG Customer Connections Defined as number of customers

LPG 45kg Market Share (%) Genesis Energy estimation based on company data, LPGA and MBIE data

Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) represents 45kg LPG bottle sales

Other LPG Sales (tonnes) represents bulk, 3rd party distributors and export sales plus transfers to the Huntly Power Station

Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) includes contracts for difference and options

Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) includes contracts for difference and options

Retail Netback ($/MWh) Customer Segment EBITDAF plus electricity and gas purchase cost divided by total electricity and gas sales volumes

Bobtail A semi truck, that transports 5 tonnes of LPG to bulk customers

GENERATION

Coal (GWh) Coal generation is calculated by applying coal burn to monthly average heat rates

Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives.

Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) Results have been revised to reflect changes in coal kilotonnes to PJ conversion rate and volume methodology

Rankines Fueled by Coal (%)

Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) the percentage of time a power station is available to generate electricity

Foreced Outage Factor (FOF) the percentage of time a power station is unavailable to generate electricity due to unplanned failure or defect.

WHOLESALE

Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) Total cost of fuel burnt plus emissions on fuel burnt divided by total generation (thermal, hydro and wind)

CORPORATE

Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate Rolling 12 month TRIFR per 200,000 hours worked

Headcount Based on full time equivalents, excluding contractors

KUPE

Oil Hedge Levels (%) % hedged for remainder of FY as % of forecast sales


Appendix: Customer Segment

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ELECTRICITY SALES VOLUMES (GWh)

Quartlery TOU Sales Volumes Quarterly MM Sales Volumes

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80,00085,00090,00095,000

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Customer Connections Share of Total Market (RHS)

Source: Company data, Gas Industry Co

NATURAL GAS CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS & MARKET SHARE

20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%

450,000460,000470,000480,000490,000500,000510,000520,000530,000540,000550,000

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Customer Connections Share of Total Market (RHS)

Source: Company data, Electricity Authority

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS & MARKET SHARE


Appendix: Customer Segment

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% annualised

GENESIS ENERGY vs. INDUSTRY ELECTRICITY CUSTOMER CONNECTION SWITCHING

Genesis Energy Monthly Switching Rate NZ Electricity Market Monthly Switching RateGenesis Energy 12 Month Rolling Switching Rate Industry rolling 12m

Source: Genesis Energy, Electricity Authority


Appendix: Wholesale Segment

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Hau Nui Wind Farm

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Waikaremoana Power Scheme

Tongariro Power Scheme

Huntly Unit 6

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GENERATION BY POWER STATION

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PLANT PERFORMANCE

Monthly EAF Monthly FOF


Appendix: Wholesale Segment

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TEKAPO STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - Q3 FY2017

Tekapo Storage Long Run Average Storage

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GWhWAIKAREMOANA STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - Q3 FY2017

Waikaremoana Storage Long Run Average Storage

Source: COMIT

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5-F

eb

10

-Fe

b

15

-Fe

b

20

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

7-M

ar

12

-Mar

17

-Mar

22

-Mar

27

-Mar

1-A

pr

Lake

Sto

rage

(G

Wh

)

Wh

ole

sale

Pri

ce (

$/M

Wh

)

Benmore (BEN2201) Otahuhu (OTA2201) Storage Long Run Average (RHS) FY2017 Storage

Source: COMIT/Genesis Energy

DAILY AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES & NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE - Q3 FY2017


Appendix: Kupe Segment

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q1

FY1

2

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

3

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

4

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

5

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

6

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

7

Q2

Q3

PJPJ

KUPE GAS SALES VOLUMES (PJ)

Quarterly Sales Volumes Rolling 12month sales volume (RHS)

340

380

420

460

500

540

580

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q1

FY1

2

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

3

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

4

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

5

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

6

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

FY1

7

Q2

Q3

'000s of barrels'000s of barrels

KUPE OIL PRODUCTION VOLUMES (kbbl)

Quarterly Production Volumes Rolling 12month production volumes (RHS)

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