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Page 1: Q3 2015 results - Amazon S3 · We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual ... CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017 Retention

Q3 2015 resultsWebcast presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

Page 2: Q3 2015 results - Amazon S3 · We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual ... CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017 Retention

2

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by

and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of

historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and

future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”,

“plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.

A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking

statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the

competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or

terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance.

We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect

our future performance and the industry in which we operate.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be

incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as

anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.

We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual

results, except as may be required by law.

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Q3 2015 – key focus areas

3

Efficiency programme proceeds as planned

Customer focus and improved topline

Balance price adjustments and inflation

Price-differentiation and conversion to new products

Acquistion in Sweden supports strategy and has capital impact

Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20%

Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation

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Financial highlights Q3 2015- Satisfactory technical result, planned one-off costs and a drop of 9% in equityindex (MSCI) result in 6.1% return on equity. Improved development in premium income.

4

244

782

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Pre-tax profit (DKKm)

83.5

83.72.6

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

86.1

Combined ratio

14.6

15.11.7

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

16.3

Expense ratio

One-off costs

• Pre-tax profit of DKK 244m (DKK 782m) impacted by:

• Planned and communicated one-off costs of DKK 120m related to efficiency programme of DKK 750m

• Negative investment result of DKK 383m (DKK -1m) impacted by MSCI equity index down 9%

• Technical result of DKK 647m (DKK 793m)

• An improvement before one-off costs, lower interest rate and currency effects

• Improved premium development with a growth of 0.6% in local currencies (-0.8%)

• Strengthened market position with acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio. This acquisition implies a DKK 400m capital loading

• ROE of 6.1% (21.7%) p.a. after tax

• Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20% depends on Q4 investment return

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Customer highlights Q3 2015- General positive development in customer key figures

5

• New car insurance product launched in Sweden.

• Tryg’s DNA marking initiative showed a preventive effect. Burglaries in Sønderborg declined by 50% for the 90 properties using the DNA marking and 26% in general in the area. A similar experiment was launched in Norway in Q3.

• Tryg required agricultural customers to fit their combine harvester with a fire trace. The fire trace saves the customers unnecessary material and consequential losses and Tryg reduces the number of farm machinery fire claims.

• TryghedsGruppen’s members’ bonus scheme was approved by the Danish Business Authority.

11

2022

CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017

NPS

56.3 56.761.3

CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017

Customers with ≥3 products (%)

87.9 88.1 88.9

CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017

Retention rate

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Premiums and portfolio

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0.6

-0.8

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Positive topline development

7

Gross earned premiums development

(Local currencies) DKKm Q3 2015 Q3 2014Local currencies

Q3 2015Local currencies

Q3 2014

Private 2,211 2,289 0.3% 0.5%

Commercial 1,022 1,045 0.2% -1.6%

Corporate 984 999 2.6% 0.5%

Sweden 373 386 -1.4% -8.4%

Group 4,583 4,712 0.6% -0.8%

Gross earned premiums increased by 0.6% (-0.8%) driven by:

• Private impacted by the competitive situation. Retention was unchanged in Denmark but decreased slightly in

Norway

• Commercial helped by one-off regulations on a large account and improved retention level in Denmark.

• Corporate impacted by positive development in Denmark and Sweden, but slightly negative in Norway.

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90

95

100

105

110

115

DK

NO

8

Motor insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)

Private - average premiums- DK profitability strong but competition increasing

90

95

100

105

110

115

DK

NO

House insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)

Average premiums increase Y/Y

-2.6% 0.5%

(Q2-2.4%) (Q2 0.4%)

Average premiums increase Y/Y

-1.0% 0.9%

(Q2 -0.8%) (Q2 1.2%)

• NO: price increases from July

• DK: changed selection reducesaverage price

• DK –2.6% decrease y/y driven by:• smaller cars• competitive situation

• Higher price on new motor tariffDK will somewhat mitigatenegative development

• Profitability very strong on motor

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Customer retention

9

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

DK

NO

Commercial

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%DK

NO

Private

• Slightly increasing customerretention in Denmark

• Slight decrease in Norway

• Customer retention increasedin Denmark

• Retention decreased in Norwayimpacted by changed distribution set-up and competition

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80.4

87.5

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

83,5

83.72.6

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

86.1

Combined ratio with underlying improvement

10

Commercial, DK & NO

82.1 80.8

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Group

86.9

82.3

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Corporate

Private, DK & NO

89.592.5

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Sweden

One-off costs

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Efficiency programme, DKK 45m achieved in Q3

11

• Programme deliver as planned with target to

achieve savings of DKK 750m in the next 3

years.

• Planned and communicated one-off costs of

DKK 120m in Q3

• Lower expected 2015 savings than in 2014.

• Claims initiatives:

• Tryg Building network Norway

• Competence team in Health care reduces disability to work

• Expense initiatives:

• IT sourcing

• Restructuring Commercial

• Digital communication

Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm)

150

73

225

375

175

388 395

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-Q32015

2016 2017

Achieved Target

Old programme New programme

Q3

H1

118

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Expense ratio improved before one-off

12

• Expense ratio improved 0.5 pp. to 14.6 before one-off costs.

• One-off provisioning of DKK 80m in Q3 related to efficiency programme

• Efficiency programme delivered savings of DKK 15m related to:

• Outsourcing within Finance and IT• Commercial reorganisation

• Reduction in FTE by 174 since Q4 2014.

FTE - Development

15.1

16.316.6 16.4

15.6

15.3

14.6 14.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Expense ratio

Adjusted for one-off effects

Nominal costs in business areas

326

170

10459

346

183

11560

Private Commercial Corporate Sweden

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

4,077

3,914

3,703

3,599

3,425

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2015

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Front page slide

Claims

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71.9 71.3

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Slight increase in underlying claims ratio, net

14

72.7

69.3

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Commercial (DK & NO)

76.7

80.2

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Sweden

68.8 68.2

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Group

76.8 77.1

Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Corporate

Private (DK & NO)

Underlying development is adjusted for large claims, weather claims, run-off and interest.

0.9 pp impact fromone-off costs

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Large claims, weather claims and run-off

15

6.3

8.8

4.75.0

5.0

6.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%)

147 111

721

356

620

447

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Weather claims, net DKKm

80

198

546471

407

574

2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Large claims, net DKKm Expected annual

level 2015: DKK 500m

Expected annual

level 2015: DKK 550m

Claims reserves discounting rate (%)

3.2

2.0

1.5

Q3 20141.2 Q3 2015

1.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Front page slide

Investment, capital and targets

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Investment return – loss on equities

17

Cov. Bonds 68,6%

Bonds/deposits 4.2%

Equities 5.8%

HY 2.2%

EM 1.0%

Inv. Property 5.1%

Bonds/deposits 13.0%

-10.3

-2.8 -1.9

1.3

-0.9-2.6

Free portfolio return (%)

Portfolio (DKK 39.7bn)

100

8

100

21

4

5365

1731

Bonds Equity HY & EM Inv. Property

Nordics EU ex Nordics North America EM/Other

Geographical exposure (%)

93

5 2

66

1420

88

6 5

AAA AA-A BBB-B

Match Free Total

Rating (%)Free10.6bn 27%

Match29.0bn 73%

Investment return

DKKm Q3 2015 Q3 2014

Free portfolio -292 21

Match regulatorydeviation

8 0

Match performance -52 16

Other financials -47 -38

Total return -383 1

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Capital structure

18

6,275

3,721

Q3 2015

Capital – Q3 2015, DKKm

9,23510,036

1,741

1,793

Q3 2015 Q2 2015

Equity Subordinated loan capital

Equity and subordinated loan, DKKm

Capitalrequirement

Excess capital

Buffer

• Capital buffer based on Individual Solvency increased to 59% (Q2 2015: 51%) and was impacted by:

• Result Q3 2015

• Executed share buy back of Q3 2015

• Decline in stock market

• Acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio implies a DKK 400m capital loading.

• Depreciation in the NOK / DKK rate of exchange.

• Based on Solvency II standard model the capital buffer was 26% (Q2 2015: 21%)

Solvency II unsolved issues:

• Internal model expected to be approved by 31 December 2015 at the latest. Application has been submitted

• Inclusion of notional deferred tax and expected future surplus

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Workers' Comp Liability Building Private Cars

19

Value creation through M&A

2015 – Skandia’s child insurance in Sweden

2014 - Securator

2014 – Tryg acquires pet insurance in Sweden

2014 – Renewal right for Codan’sagricultural portfolio

New business consumes capital (capital to premium)

Latest acquisitions• M/A to support marketdevelopment

• Strategically supportive

• Acquisitions should support financial targets over a 3 yearhorizon to reach 21% ROE

• Product / distribution enhancing

120-140%

90-110%

50-70%

25-35%

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Concluding remarks

20

Efficiency programme proceeds as

planned.

Balance price and inflation

Acquistion in Sweden supports strategy

and have capital impact

Price-differentiation

Topline development challenging

Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20%

depends on Q4 investment return.

Financial targets 2017

• ROE: ≥21%

• Combined ratio: ≤87%

• Expense ratio: ≤14%

Customer targets 2017

• NPS +100%

• Retention rate +1 pp

• ≥ 3 products +5 pp

Dividend policy

• Payout ratio of 60-90%

• Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend

Low risk and high returns

Leading in efficiency

Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong

track record

Customer care worth recommending

Next level pricing

Page 21: Q3 2015 results - Amazon S3 · We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual ... CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017 Retention

Q&AFollow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

Page 22: Q3 2015 results - Amazon S3 · We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual ... CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017 Retention

Date Place Participants from Tryg Arranged by

9/10/2015 Copenhagen

Morten Hübbe, CEO

Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO

Investor Relations

Danske Markets

12/07/2015 London

Morten Hübbe, CEO

Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO

Investor Relations

UBS

19-23/10/2015 USA Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO

Peter Brondt, IR ManagerCiti

21/10/2015 EdinburghLars Møller, IR Director

Gianandrea Roberti, IR OfficerGoldman Sachs

9-11/11/2015 TokyoTor Magne Lønnum, CFO

Gianandrea Roberti, IR OfficerGoldman Sachs

3/12/2015 CopenhagenMorten Hübbe, CEO

Peter Brondt, IR Manager

Danske Markets Winter

Seminar

3-4/12/2015 Hong Kong Lars Møller, IR DirectorCiti Global Financials

Conference

Upcoming roadshows

22