q3 2015 results - amazon s3 · we are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking...
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Q3 2015 resultsWebcast presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
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Disclaimer
Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by
and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of
historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and
future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”,
“plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.
A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking
statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the
competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or
terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance.
We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect
our future performance and the industry in which we operate.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be
incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as
anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.
We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual
results, except as may be required by law.
Q3 2015 – key focus areas
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Efficiency programme proceeds as planned
Customer focus and improved topline
Balance price adjustments and inflation
Price-differentiation and conversion to new products
Acquistion in Sweden supports strategy and has capital impact
Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20%
Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation
Financial highlights Q3 2015- Satisfactory technical result, planned one-off costs and a drop of 9% in equityindex (MSCI) result in 6.1% return on equity. Improved development in premium income.
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244
782
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Pre-tax profit (DKKm)
83.5
83.72.6
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
86.1
Combined ratio
14.6
15.11.7
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
16.3
Expense ratio
One-off costs
• Pre-tax profit of DKK 244m (DKK 782m) impacted by:
• Planned and communicated one-off costs of DKK 120m related to efficiency programme of DKK 750m
• Negative investment result of DKK 383m (DKK -1m) impacted by MSCI equity index down 9%
• Technical result of DKK 647m (DKK 793m)
• An improvement before one-off costs, lower interest rate and currency effects
• Improved premium development with a growth of 0.6% in local currencies (-0.8%)
• Strengthened market position with acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio. This acquisition implies a DKK 400m capital loading
• ROE of 6.1% (21.7%) p.a. after tax
• Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20% depends on Q4 investment return
Customer highlights Q3 2015- General positive development in customer key figures
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• New car insurance product launched in Sweden.
• Tryg’s DNA marking initiative showed a preventive effect. Burglaries in Sønderborg declined by 50% for the 90 properties using the DNA marking and 26% in general in the area. A similar experiment was launched in Norway in Q3.
• Tryg required agricultural customers to fit their combine harvester with a fire trace. The fire trace saves the customers unnecessary material and consequential losses and Tryg reduces the number of farm machinery fire claims.
• TryghedsGruppen’s members’ bonus scheme was approved by the Danish Business Authority.
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2022
CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017
NPS
56.3 56.761.3
CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017
Customers with ≥3 products (%)
87.9 88.1 88.9
CMD 2014 Q3 2015 Target 2017
Retention rate
Premiums and portfolio
0.6
-0.8
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Positive topline development
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Gross earned premiums development
(Local currencies) DKKm Q3 2015 Q3 2014Local currencies
Q3 2015Local currencies
Q3 2014
Private 2,211 2,289 0.3% 0.5%
Commercial 1,022 1,045 0.2% -1.6%
Corporate 984 999 2.6% 0.5%
Sweden 373 386 -1.4% -8.4%
Group 4,583 4,712 0.6% -0.8%
Gross earned premiums increased by 0.6% (-0.8%) driven by:
• Private impacted by the competitive situation. Retention was unchanged in Denmark but decreased slightly in
Norway
• Commercial helped by one-off regulations on a large account and improved retention level in Denmark.
• Corporate impacted by positive development in Denmark and Sweden, but slightly negative in Norway.
90
95
100
105
110
115
DK
NO
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Motor insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)
Private - average premiums- DK profitability strong but competition increasing
90
95
100
105
110
115
DK
NO
House insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)
Average premiums increase Y/Y
-2.6% 0.5%
(Q2-2.4%) (Q2 0.4%)
Average premiums increase Y/Y
-1.0% 0.9%
(Q2 -0.8%) (Q2 1.2%)
• NO: price increases from July
• DK: changed selection reducesaverage price
• DK –2.6% decrease y/y driven by:• smaller cars• competitive situation
• Higher price on new motor tariffDK will somewhat mitigatenegative development
• Profitability very strong on motor
Customer retention
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82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
DK
NO
Commercial
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%DK
NO
Private
• Slightly increasing customerretention in Denmark
• Slight decrease in Norway
• Customer retention increasedin Denmark
• Retention decreased in Norwayimpacted by changed distribution set-up and competition
80.4
87.5
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
83,5
83.72.6
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
86.1
Combined ratio with underlying improvement
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Commercial, DK & NO
82.1 80.8
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Group
86.9
82.3
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Corporate
Private, DK & NO
89.592.5
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Sweden
One-off costs
Efficiency programme, DKK 45m achieved in Q3
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• Programme deliver as planned with target to
achieve savings of DKK 750m in the next 3
years.
• Planned and communicated one-off costs of
DKK 120m in Q3
• Lower expected 2015 savings than in 2014.
• Claims initiatives:
• Tryg Building network Norway
• Competence team in Health care reduces disability to work
• Expense initiatives:
• IT sourcing
• Restructuring Commercial
• Digital communication
Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm)
150
73
225
375
175
388 395
45
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-Q32015
2016 2017
Achieved Target
Old programme New programme
Q3
H1
118
Expense ratio improved before one-off
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• Expense ratio improved 0.5 pp. to 14.6 before one-off costs.
• One-off provisioning of DKK 80m in Q3 related to efficiency programme
• Efficiency programme delivered savings of DKK 15m related to:
• Outsourcing within Finance and IT• Commercial reorganisation
• Reduction in FTE by 174 since Q4 2014.
FTE - Development
15.1
16.316.6 16.4
15.6
15.3
14.6 14.6
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Expense ratio
Adjusted for one-off effects
Nominal costs in business areas
326
170
10459
346
183
11560
Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
4,077
3,914
3,703
3,599
3,425
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2015
Front page slide
Claims
71.9 71.3
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Slight increase in underlying claims ratio, net
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72.7
69.3
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Commercial (DK & NO)
76.7
80.2
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Sweden
68.8 68.2
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Group
76.8 77.1
Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Corporate
Private (DK & NO)
Underlying development is adjusted for large claims, weather claims, run-off and interest.
0.9 pp impact fromone-off costs
Large claims, weather claims and run-off
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6.3
8.8
4.75.0
5.0
6.1
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%)
147 111
721
356
620
447
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Weather claims, net DKKm
80
198
546471
407
574
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Large claims, net DKKm Expected annual
level 2015: DKK 500m
Expected annual
level 2015: DKK 550m
Claims reserves discounting rate (%)
3.2
2.0
1.5
Q3 20141.2 Q3 2015
1.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Front page slide
Investment, capital and targets
Investment return – loss on equities
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Cov. Bonds 68,6%
Bonds/deposits 4.2%
Equities 5.8%
HY 2.2%
EM 1.0%
Inv. Property 5.1%
Bonds/deposits 13.0%
-10.3
-2.8 -1.9
1.3
-0.9-2.6
Free portfolio return (%)
Portfolio (DKK 39.7bn)
100
8
100
21
4
5365
1731
Bonds Equity HY & EM Inv. Property
Nordics EU ex Nordics North America EM/Other
Geographical exposure (%)
93
5 2
66
1420
88
6 5
AAA AA-A BBB-B
Match Free Total
Rating (%)Free10.6bn 27%
Match29.0bn 73%
Investment return
DKKm Q3 2015 Q3 2014
Free portfolio -292 21
Match regulatorydeviation
8 0
Match performance -52 16
Other financials -47 -38
Total return -383 1
Capital structure
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6,275
3,721
Q3 2015
Capital – Q3 2015, DKKm
9,23510,036
1,741
1,793
Q3 2015 Q2 2015
Equity Subordinated loan capital
Equity and subordinated loan, DKKm
Capitalrequirement
Excess capital
Buffer
• Capital buffer based on Individual Solvency increased to 59% (Q2 2015: 51%) and was impacted by:
• Result Q3 2015
• Executed share buy back of Q3 2015
• Decline in stock market
• Acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio implies a DKK 400m capital loading.
• Depreciation in the NOK / DKK rate of exchange.
• Based on Solvency II standard model the capital buffer was 26% (Q2 2015: 21%)
Solvency II unsolved issues:
• Internal model expected to be approved by 31 December 2015 at the latest. Application has been submitted
• Inclusion of notional deferred tax and expected future surplus
Workers' Comp Liability Building Private Cars
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Value creation through M&A
2015 – Skandia’s child insurance in Sweden
2014 - Securator
2014 – Tryg acquires pet insurance in Sweden
2014 – Renewal right for Codan’sagricultural portfolio
New business consumes capital (capital to premium)
Latest acquisitions• M/A to support marketdevelopment
• Strategically supportive
• Acquisitions should support financial targets over a 3 yearhorizon to reach 21% ROE
• Product / distribution enhancing
120-140%
90-110%
50-70%
25-35%
Concluding remarks
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Efficiency programme proceeds as
planned.
Balance price and inflation
Acquistion in Sweden supports strategy
and have capital impact
Price-differentiation
Topline development challenging
Fulfilment of 2015 ROE target of 20%
depends on Q4 investment return.
Financial targets 2017
• ROE: ≥21%
• Combined ratio: ≤87%
• Expense ratio: ≤14%
Customer targets 2017
• NPS +100%
• Retention rate +1 pp
• ≥ 3 products +5 pp
Dividend policy
• Payout ratio of 60-90%
• Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend
Low risk and high returns
Leading in efficiency
Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong
track record
Customer care worth recommending
Next level pricing
Q&AFollow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
Date Place Participants from Tryg Arranged by
9/10/2015 Copenhagen
Morten Hübbe, CEO
Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO
Investor Relations
Danske Markets
12/07/2015 London
Morten Hübbe, CEO
Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO
Investor Relations
UBS
19-23/10/2015 USA Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO
Peter Brondt, IR ManagerCiti
21/10/2015 EdinburghLars Møller, IR Director
Gianandrea Roberti, IR OfficerGoldman Sachs
9-11/11/2015 TokyoTor Magne Lønnum, CFO
Gianandrea Roberti, IR OfficerGoldman Sachs
3/12/2015 CopenhagenMorten Hübbe, CEO
Peter Brondt, IR Manager
Danske Markets Winter
Seminar
3-4/12/2015 Hong Kong Lars Møller, IR DirectorCiti Global Financials
Conference
Upcoming roadshows
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