q2 2020 earnings presentation...europe 2 10 21 12 42 unallocated (2) (3) (3) (5) (5) total 84 75 36...
TRANSCRIPT
Q2 2020Earnings PresentationAugust 5, 2020
Forward-Looking Statements
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures
3
Notices
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial measures will be presented. Reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
• Norbord defines the following non-IFRS financial measures as:
– Adjusted EBITDA as earnings (loss) determined in accordance with IFRS before finance costs, interest income, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and non-recurring or other items;
– Adjusted earnings (loss) as earnings (loss) determined in accordance with IFRS before non-recurring or other items and using a normalized income tax rate;
– Adjusted earnings (loss) per share is Adjusted earnings (loss) divided by the weighted average number of common shares outstanding (on a basic or diluted basis, as specified);
– Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share is calculated as cash provided by (used for) operating activities as determined under IFRS, divided by the weighted average number of common shares outstanding;
– Operating working capital as accounts receivable plus inventory and prepaids less accounts payable and accrued liabilities;
– Tangible net worth as shareholders’ equity including certain adjustments;
– Net debt to capitalization, book basis as net debt for financial covenant purposes divided by the sum of net debt for financial covenant purposes and tangible net worth;
– Net debt for financial covenant purposes as net debt excluding other long-term debt and including other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes, letters of credit and guarantees outstanding, and any bank advances; and
– Net debt as the principal value of long-term debt, including the current portion, other long-term debt and bank advances, if any, less cash and cash equivalents.
Q2 2020 Financial and Operational Highlights
4
Highlights
• Adjusted EBITDA of $84 million and Adjusted earnings of $0.38 per diluted share
• Reduced North American unit manufacturing costs 9% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y
• Extended maturity of committed revolving bank lines to May 2022 and increased
aggregate commitment from $245 million to $300 million
• Liquidity of $378 million at quarter-end
• Declared quarterly variable dividend of C $0.30 per share for shareholders of record
on September 1, 2020
• Resuming limited production at Line 1 of Cordele, Georgia OSB mill to respond to
stronger than expected demand
1.11
1.17
1.20
1.25
1.29
1.21
1.26
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
US Housing Starts
5
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
• Economists are forecasting a significant decrease in 2020 starts, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a recovery in 2021
• June 2020 seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts was 1.19 million, and rate of permits was 1.24 million
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(1)(1)
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
6
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 2 49 24 20 8
Spread WC vs NC 35 53 33 16 46
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6”
188
217223
271 270
186
168
199
251262
153164
190
255
224
100
150
200
250
300
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
North Central
South East
Western Canada
285
269
247
241
251
200
225
250
275
300
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
7
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
Financial Summary
8
Financials
(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q2 Q1 Q2 6 mos 6 mos2020 2020 2019 2020 2019
Sales $421 $467 $447 $888 $923
Adjusted EBITDA
North America 84 68 18 152 41
Europe 2 10 21 12 42
Unallocated (2) (3) (3) (5) (5)
Total 84 75 36 159 78
Earnings (loss) $18 $20 $(14) $38 $(13)
Adjusted for:
Impairment of assets 16 - - 16 -
Loss on disposal of assets 3 - 1 3 1
Stock-based compensation and related costs 2 - 1 2 2
Costs on early extinguishment of 2020 notes - - 10 - 10
Costs related to 100 Mile House indefinite curtailment - - 2 - 2
Reported income tax expense (recovery) 3 8 (10) 11 (15)
Adjusted pre-tax earnings (loss) 42 28 (10) 70 (13)
Income tax (expense) recovery at statutory rate(1) (11) (7) 2 (18) 3
Adjusted earnings (loss) 31 21 (8) 52 (10)
Adjusted EPS, basic 0.38 0.26 (0.10) 0.64 (0.12)
Adjusted EPS, diluted 0.38 0.26 (0.10) 0.64 (0.12)
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
9
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q2 2020 Q2 2020 6 mos 2020vs. vs. vs.
Q1 2020 Q2 2019 6 mos 2019
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 84 84 $ 159
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 75 36 78
Variance 9 48 81
Mill nets(1) (4) 50 81
Volume(2) (17) (23) (28)
Key input prices(3) 5 6 15
Key input usage(3) 5 - (4)
Mill profit share and bonus - (3) (2)
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 20 18 19
Total $ 9 $ 48 $ 81
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and maintenance.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
10
Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2020 Target
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q2 2019
6 mos2020
6 mos2019
Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $76 $67 $13 $143 $62
Cash taxes, net 3 41 (16) 44 (51)
Operating working capital changes(1) 46 (69) 39 (23) (72)
Cash provided by (used for) operating activities 125 39 36 164 (61)
Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share 1.55 0.48 0.44 2.02 (0.74)
Operating working capital 152 197 162
Capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 75 14 25 30 39 60
Cash 20 30 315
A/R Securitization 67 - -
Revolving Bank Lines 291 217 236
Total Liquidity 378 247 551
(1) Adjusted for FX and other non-cash changes
Capitalization and Bank Covenants
11
Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant
July 4,
2020
Dec 31,
2019
Long-term debt, principal value $ 665 $ 665
Add: Other long-term debt - 68
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (20) (20)
Net debt 645 713
Less: Other long-term debt - (68)
Add: Other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes
1 2
Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 9 8
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 655 655
Tangible net worth Min. $500 1,001 999
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 40% 40%
Appendices
Historical North American OSB Prices
13
Appendices
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211 271
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188 270
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363 217
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243 223
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351 210
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at July 31, 2020. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
14
Appendices
Analyst 2020E 2021E
CIBC 329 325
Scotia 283 298
TD 282 299
Seaport Global 276 300
RBC 275 275
Raymond James 270 290
Bank of America 260 273
BMO 258 275
Average 279 292
Annual Average
North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
North American OSB Industry Stated Capacity of 27 Bsf
15
Appendices
(1) Only Line 1 was indefinitely curtailed at the Cordele, GA mill as of November 2019 but limited production is resuming at Line 1 in August 2020.
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
33 Mills in Operation
5 Mills Idle(1)
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
11 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13 & 2017/18
Norbord Mill
Financial Sensitivities
16
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (1) (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11
Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the indefinitely curtailed Chambord, Quebec and 100 Mile House, British Columbia mills and Line 1 at the Cordele, Georgia mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $47 million based on the last twelve months of production at July 4, 2020.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2019 – Canada C$15 million and Belgium €30 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).