q2 2016 americas office trends report -...
TRANSCRIPT
Summary
The overall national office market recovery slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2016 amid financial market volatility. However, as financial markets stabilized later in the quarter, office-using job growth accelerated, likely signaling stronger tenant demand in the months ahead. Tech companies continued to drive growth across the nation, resulting in a scarcity of creative space in many cities. On the inverse, energy-dominated markets slowed further due to sustained low oil prices. Many companies continued to seek space in vibrant downtown and suburban areas near public transportation in order to attract millennial talent desiring a live/work/play environment. With healthy office-using employment growth and limited new supply expected in 2016, rents will likely increase further. However, we continue to keep a close eye on any impact from financial market volatility and global risk factors on office market fundamentals.
AMERICAS OFFICE TRENDS REPORT
Americas Office Trends Report
Q2 2016
AMERICAS OFFICE TRENDS REPORT
CBRE Research
NATIONAL TENANT / USER PERSPECTIVES
NATIONAL LANDLORD / OWNER PERSPECTIVES
CAPITAL MARKETS PERSPECTIVES
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Q2 2016
• Manytenantsarestillfocusedondowntownandhighlyamenitizedsuburbanmarketswithtransitaccessandlive/work/playenvironments.
• TighteningintheClassAmarkethastenantsexploringwell-locatedClassBpropertiesandcreativespace.
• Tenantsacrossgeographiesandindustriesareexploringalternateworkplacestrategiestomaximizeefficienciesandcollaboration.
• Themostactiveindustriesaretechnologyandhealthcare.Theenergysectorhasslowedduetolowoilprices.
• Techcompaniescontinuetolookforcreative,renovatedwarehousespacebutalsoaremigratingtoClassAspacewithampleamenities.
• DevelopersarerenovatingClassBbuildingsduetoashortageofClassAspace.
• Alackofnewsupplyisresultinginashortageoflarge,availableblocksofClassAspaceinanincreasingnumberofmarkets.
• Landlordscontinuetopushrentalrateincreasesandreduceconcessionsinmanymarkets.
• Speculativeconstructionisincreasingslowly.However,risingconstructioncostsarerestrainingdevelopmentactivityoutsideofthestrongestmarkets.
• Mostmarketsarewitnessingpositiveabsorption.
• U.S.officeinvestmentincludingentity-levelacquisitionsdecreasedby14.8%year-over-yearinQ12016.
• TheratioofsuburbanacquisitionstoCBDinQ12016wasonparwith2015buthigherthanpreviousyears,accountingfor53.4%oftheQ1total.
• Cross-borderofficeinvestmenttotaled$5.3billioninQ12016,a23%decreasefromQ12015.
• TheaveragesalespricepersquarefootforbothCBDandsuburbanassetpurchasesdecreasedslightlyinQ12016,althoughthiscouldbeduetoachangingassetmix.
• RealCapitalAnalyticsdataindicatethatCBDcapratesdeclinedinQ12016whilesuburbancaprateswidenedslightly.
Thisreportreflectscurrentobservationsandsentimentsfrommorethan1,500CBREOfficeAdvisory&TransactionandInvestmentprofessionalsintheAmericas.
Perspectives
AMERICAS OFFICE TRENDS REPORT
CBRE Research
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES
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Q2 2016
NORTHEAST REGION
• Technology,advertising,mediaandinformation(TAMI)tenantscontinuetodominatedemandinManhattan,outpacingthetraditionalfinancialandlegalindustries.
• City,stateandfederalgovernmenttenantsareveryactiveinDowntownManhattan.
• DowntownBostontrophyassetscontinuetoattractforeigncapital.
• SharedworkplaceprovidersweretheprimarydriversofgrowthinthedowntownWashington, DCmarketinQ12016.
• AflighttoqualityhasdrivendowntrophyvacancyratesindowntownandsuburbanPhiladelphiatonear-recordlows.
• Mid-sizedgovernmentcontractorsandcyber-securityfirmsareamajordriverinBaltimore.
• TenantsseekinglargeblocksinbothdowntownandsuburbanHartfordhavefewoptions.
• NewandrenovatedbuildingsinHarrisburgarebenefitingfromaflighttoquality,whileolderpropertiesarestrugglingtoattractandretaintenants.
SOUTHEAST REGION
• SeveralmillionsquarefeetofcreativeofficespaceareunderconstructioninAtlanta.
• TechcompaniesseekingtoattractmillennialshavedrivenuprentsfornewproductindowntownNashvilletorecordhighs.
• Legal,financialandhealthcaretenantswereactiveinTampainQ12016.
• ManyBirminghamtenantsareinexpansionmode,drivingdemandforboutiquespaceattractivetomillennials.
• AsignificantamountofClassAofficeconstructionactivityisoccurringinCharlotte.
• RapidresidentialandhospitalityindustrygrowthinGreenvillehascreatedparkingandinfrastructurechallenges.
• NonewspaceisexpectedintheneartermindowntownSavannah,whereheightandmassrestrictionsmakedevelopmentchallenging.
• Backoffice,logisticsandbiosciencetenantshavebeendrivingdemandinMemphisinrecentyears.
MIDWESTERN REGION
• Despitecautioussentiment,includingincreasingsubleasespace,positivefundamentalscontinueinChicago’sCBD.
• PreleasingremainshighinbuildingsbreakinggroundinDallas,alleviatingfearsregardingoverbuilding.
• Houstonsubleasespaceisexpectedtoreach10millionsq.ft.withinthenexttenmonthsasenergyfirmsdownsizefurther.
• RobustleasingactivityhasresultedinvirtuallynolargeblocksavailableintheAustinCBD.
• Withvacancyratesdeclining,constructionactivityinSt. Louishasrisentothehighestlevelsincetherecession.
• Healthcaretenants,includingexpandinghospitalsystems,areactiveinLouisville.
• OwnersinMinneapolisarerenovatingandrepositioningexistingpropertiestoattractgrowingtechcompanies.
• RentsarerisinginIndianapolis,partiallytooffsethigherTIcosts.
WESTERN REGION
• AlthoughupslightlyinQ12016,subleasespaceisbeingrapidlyabsorbedinSanFrancisco.
• Despiterecentrapidgrowth,rentsremaintoolowtojustifynewconstructionin
AMERICAS OFFICE TRENDS REPORT Q2 2016
Oakland,limitingtenantoptions.• Robusttechtenantdemandandrentgrowth
aredrivingtheWest Los Angelesinvestmentmarket.
• RecenttenantactivityinLos Angeles Northhasconsistedprimarilyofconsolidationsandrenewals.
• Tech,gamingandcloudcompanies,includingmanyBayArea-basedfirms,continuetoexpandinSeattle.
• TenantsarerelocatingfromadjacentstatestoPhoenixforitslowercosts.
• TenantsinRenofacealackoflarge,contiguousblocksofClassAspace.
• ActivetenantsinSacramentoincludestategovernmentandhealthcare,tech,insurance,educationandlawfirms.
CANADA
• Afteraslow2015,Canada’seconomystarted2016withrelativelystronggrowth.
• Employmentgrowthincoreoffice-usingindustrieshasbeenpositive,bolsteringdemandforspace.
• AlthoughofficeabsorptionpickedupslightlyinQ12016,significantregionaldisparitiesexist.
• TheoverallvacancyrateincreasedinQ12016,largelyduetoslowingdemandinenergy-centriccitiesandnewofficesupplybeingdeliveredtothemarket.
MEXICO
• MexicoCityhasreached55.7millionsq.ft.ofClassAofficeinventoryandavacancyrateof12.6%.
• Q12016netabsorptionremainedstrongat885,000sq.ft.,upfrom603,000sq.ft.inQ12015.
• ClassAunderconstructionprojectstotaled18.2millionsq.ft.attheendofQ12016.
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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES (CONT.)
Edward J. Schreyer, SIOR President,AssetServices&AdvisoryandTransactionServices|Investor TheAmericas|CBRE
[email protected]/ed.schreyer
Whitley Collins President,AdvisoryandTransactionServices|Occupier TheAmericas|CBRE
[email protected]/whitley.collins
Andrea Cross HeadofOfficeResearch, TheAmericas|CBRE
[email protected]/research
AMERICAS OFFICE TRENDS REPORT Q2 2016
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