q1 2021 earnings call - overstock.com inc
TRANSCRIPT
Q1 2021Earnings Call
Forward-Looking Statements
2
The information presented herein may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Such forward-looking statements include all
statements other than statements of historical fact, including forecasts of trends, market conditions, and other factors that will impact our results of operations. You
should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they were made. We undertake no obligation to update any
forward-looking statements as a result of any new information, future developments, or otherwise. Forward-looking statements are inherently difficult to predict.
Accordingly, actual results could differ materially for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to market volatility, the world economy, government regulation, and
our supply chain, including supply and demand for the products and services we offer, and the ability of our third-party partners and carriers to provide products and
services without interruption and at a reasonable cost. Actual results could also differ materially for a number of reasons, including, but not limited to initiatives to
improve or maintain the performance of our business, adverse tax, regulatory or legal developments, competition, and any inability to maintain profitability, continue to
generate positive cash flow from operations, raise capital, or borrow funds on acceptable terms, difficulties we may have with our infrastructure, our fulfillment partners
or our payment processors, including cyber-attacks or data breaches affecting us or any of them, any inability to protect our intellectual property, and difficulties we may
experience with increasing or maintaining our search engine optimization results, converting web traffic to sales, or ensuring we maintain our new customer base. Other
risks and uncertainties include, among others, whether our partnership with Pelion Venture Partners will be able to achieve its objectives and the timing for doing such.
More information about factors that could potentially affect our financial results are included in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, which was filed
with the SEC on February 26, 2021, and in our subsequent filings with the SEC. The Form 10-K and our subsequent filings with the SEC identify important factors that
could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in or contemplated by our projections, estimates, and other forward-looking statements.
Agenda
3
1. CEO Remarks
2. Financial Results
3. Business Updates
4. Summary and Q&A
Corporate Update
4
▪ Closed blockchain fund transaction with Pelion Venture Partners on April 23
– Announced strategic partnership on January 25 (original goal to close by mid-July)
– Medici Ventures converted into a limited partnership (the “Fund”) overseen by Pelion
– Medici Ventures deconsolidated in financial results
▪ Regulatory front – no updates
▪ Annual shareholder meeting on May 13
▪ Continue to operate well working remote-first
5
Financial Results
Q1 2021 Financial Results
6
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.1 In Q1’20 we recorded $2.5M in special items that benefited G&A expense. Reported G&A expense in Q1’20 was $51.2M, or 15.1% of revenue.2 Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Reconciliation in Appendix.
$659.9 Million+94% vs. Q1’20
+82% vs. Q1’19
Revenue
23.3%+141bps vs. Q1’20
+342bps vs. Q1’19
Gross Margin
8.1%-771bps vs. Q1’201
-783bps vs. Q1’19
G&A and Tech % of Revenue
$534.8 Million+$39.4M vs. Q4’20
+$438.3M vs. Q4’19
Ending CashAdjusted EBITDA2
$33.9 Million+$40.4M / +618% vs. Q1’20
+$41.7M / +530% vs. Q1’19
Diluted EPS
$0.56+$0.90 vs. Q1’20
+$1.15 vs. Q1’19
Revenue
7
$363 $367 $341
$364 $340
$767 $718
$670 $660
(18%)(23%) (22%)
(19%)
(6%)
109% 111%
84%
94%
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Revenue($M)
YoY Revenue∆ Q1 Dynamics
▪ Revenue of $660M
– +94% / $320M vs. Q1’20
– +82% / $297M vs. Q1’19
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.
Gross Margin
8
$72 $72$68
$75 $74
$178
$169
$151 $15419.9% 19.7% 20.0%
20.7%
21.9%
23.2% 23.5%
22.5%23.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$-
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Gross Profit($M)
Gross Margin(%) Q1 Dynamics
▪ Gross margin of 23.3%
– +141bps vs. Q1’20
– +342bps vs. Q1’19
▪ Gross margin benefited by:
– Continued sales mix into core home furnishings categories
– Disciplined discounting activities offset by increased acquisition marketing
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.
$58
$52
$48
$52$54
$57$59
$54 $53
15.9%
14.1% 14.1% 14.4%15.1%
6.5%
8.2% 8.1% 8.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
G&A and Tech Expense($M)
G&A and Tech Exp % of Revenue(%)
G&A and Tech Expense
9
Q1 Dynamics
▪ G&A and tech expense generating operating leverage
– -1% vs. Q1’201
– -8% vs. Q1’19
▪ G&A and tech expense % of revenue of 8.1%
– -771bps vs. Q1’201
– -783bps vs. Q1’19
7.5%2
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.1 In Q1’20 we recorded $2.5M in special items that benefited G&A expense. Reported G&A expense in Q1’20 was $51.2M, or 15.1% of revenue.2 In Q2’20 we recorded $7.3M in special items that benefited G&A expense. Reported G&A expense in Q2’20 was $49.9M, or 6.5% of revenue.
15.8%1
Adjusted EBITDA
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.
Retail Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Reconciliation in Appendix.
Q1 Dynamics
▪ Adj. EBITDA of $34M
– +$40M vs. Q1’20
– +$42M vs. Q1’19
▪ Adj. EBITDA margin of 5.1%
– +706bps vs. Q1’20
– +730bps vs. Q1’19
10
$(8)
$(2)$(5)
$(7) $(7)
$49 $46
$30 $34
(2.2%)
(0.7%)
(1.4%)
(1.8%) (1.9%)
6.4% 6.4%
4.5%
5.1%
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$(40)
$(30)
$(20)
$(10)
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Adj. EBITDA($M)
Adj. EBITDA Margin(%)
Active Customers and Order Frequency
11
Q1 Dynamics
▪ Active customers reached record of 9.9M
– +92% / +4.8M vs. Q1’20
– +60% / +3.7M vs. Q1’19
▪ Order frequency of 1.66
– -2% vs. Q1’20
– -5% vs. Q1’19
– Impacted by influx of new customers
Note: Active customers represents the number of customers who made at least one purchase during the prior twelve-month period.
Note: Orders per active customer represents the number of orders delivered over a twelve-month period divided by the number of active customers for that same period.
6.2 5.8
5.4 5.1 5.2
7.0
8.2
9.2 9.9
1.75 1.76 1.76 1.75 1.70
1.62 1.63 1.64 1.66
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Active Customers(M)
Orders per Active Customer
Orders and Average Order Value
12
Q1 Dynamics
▪ Orders delivered (LTM) reached record of 16.5M
– +88% / +7.7M vs. Q1’20
– +52% / +5.7M vs. Q1’19
▪ Average order value of $183
– +17% vs. Q1’20
– +18% vs. Q1’19
– Driven by continued sales mix into core home furniture categories
Note: LTM orders delivered represents the total number of orders delivered during the prior twelve-month period.
Note: Average order value represents net revenue divided by orders delivered, measured on a quarterly basis.
10.9 10.2
9.6 8.9 8.8
11.3
13.4
15.1
16.5 $155
$166 $167
$155 $156 $160
$173 $168
$183
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Orders Delivered (LTM)(M)
Average Order Value
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Business Updates
14
1. Amazon
2. Wayfair
3. Walmart
4.
5. Target
6. Pottery Barn
7. IKEA
8. Bed Bath & Beyond
9. West Elm
10. Restoration Hardware
Top 4 Brand in a Growing Market
15
Top U.S. Home Furnishings Online Brands1
(ranked by online revenue)
1 Source: Public, third-party analyses and transactional data based on commonly accepted definition of ‘home furnishings and décor’ category (which includes furniture) and ranked by 2020 direct-to-customer online sales.2 Source: Combined data from eMarketer, NRF, NPD, and Earnest transactional data.
6%7%
8%9%
11%
13%
16%
18%
20%
23%
29%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mar 2021(est.)
Furniture & Home Furnishings U.S. Online Penetration2
Establishing Unique Market Positioning
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IKEA
Dream Homes for All:
The space of ‘Smart Value’
where quality & style costs less
Home Goods Expertise
Department Store Generalist
Style & InspirationValue
Amazon
Walmart
Target
Bed Bath &Beyond
Wayfair West Elm
Pottery BarnRestorationHardware
Source: Based on Overstock Annual Brand Research, 2020. Shown are the top ten U.S. home furnishings online home retailers, as ranked by online revenue.
Playing to Our Strengths
17
1 Source: eMarketer–Total U.S. Retail Sales estimates, 2020. 2 Source: Overstock customer segmentation research, 2019.
Note: $325B total market size x 40% customer segments market size = $130B market.
Savvy Shoppers Reluctant Refreshers
▪ Higher propensity to shop at Overstock
▪ Deal-driven and low-hassle
▪ Combined market spend is 40% of total market2
$130B Market1,2
Focused Strategy
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vision
financial goal
dream homes for all making beautiful & comfortable homes accessible by helping customerseasily & confidently find just what they want for less
sustainable, profitable market share growth
target customers savvy shopperprimary segment
values Overstock for helping them feel smart about finding a great dealfrom a compelling selection of stylish & quality home products
secondary segment
reluctant refreshervalues Overstock for helping them easily& confidently find just what they want
2021 initiatives improve product findability grow government market share grow Canada market share improve enterprise platform
enablersOKR-drivenfocus
world-classSEO
data-driven customer relationshipand loyalty building
machine learning andalgorithms innovation
rapid iterationmindset
brand pillars
productfindability
get inspired anywhere,but easily find it at Overstock
smartvalue
quality & style for less
easy delivery+ support
fast, free, & predictable delivery,plus low-hassle returns & support
19Note: Sales reflects GMS (gross merchandise sales), calculated as the amount paid by customers for products (and shipping), measured at the time of order, before coupons and discounts, without reductions for estimated returns.
▪ Customers shifted to mobile
▪ In Q1, mobile:
– Purchases >50% of total sales
– Unique visits +62% YoY
– Sales +105% YoY
– Conversion +10% YoY
▪ Focus on app adoption in 2021
productfindabilityproductfindability
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21
Sales % by Device
Mobile
Desktop
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21
Orders Delivered % by Device
Mobile
Desktop
20Note: Sales Mix is shown as a percentage of gross merchandise volume, calculated as the amount paid by customers for products (and shipping), measured at the time of order, after coupons and discounts,
without reductions for estimated returns.
▪ Demand for home furnishings
continues to increase
– Home furnishings were 93% of sales in Q1
– Highest home furnishings mix in history
▪ Opportunity to increase brand
association with “Home”
– 2X higher purchase intent if shopper
comes to OSTK for “Home”
– Emphasizing Dream Homes for All
productfindabilityproductfindability
91%93%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1'19 Q1'20 Q1'21
Sales Mix of Home Furnishings
21
▪ Assortment and SKU productivity
continue to increase
– Number of SKUs sold +24% YoY
– Units sold per SKU +36% YoY
productfindabilityproductfindability
Note: Chart reflects home furnishings SKUs only.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21
Assortment Optimization
SKUs Sold
Units Sold per SKU
221 Source: Bizrate point of sale survey, Q1 2021.
▪ Free shipping is a top purchase driver and key component of Smart Value
– Launched free shipping on all items in 2020
– Customer rating of shipping charges expected to remain at current levels
smartvaluesmartvalue
Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Customer Rating of Shipping Charges1
12% favorable to
competitors
23Note: Overstock prices used to compare to competitor prices include site sale discounts before coupons are applied. Comparisons account for 30-35% of all product page views.
Price comparisons taken during last week of respective month reported.
▪ Savvy Shoppers expect value
– Want to feel like they are getting “best quality for the price”
▪ Progress evident in continued refinement of pricing model
▪ Pricing is another key component of Smart Value
smartvaluesmartvalue
55%
70%
80%
85%
Dec '19 Jul '20 Dec '20 Mar '21
Competitively Priced SKUs
24Note: % orders delivered on-time or early and click to delivery refer to small parcels only.
▪ Delivery speed and on-time accuracy
key drivers of customer conversion and
retention
– For customers, maintained focus on
communicating delivery expectations
during times of operational disruption
– For carriers, managed disruptions
through rigorous planning, estimation
accuracy, and communications
easy delivery+ support
1/5/20 2/5/20 3/5/20 4/5/20 5/5/20 6/5/20 7/5/20 8/5/20 9/5/20 10/5/20 11/5/20 12/5/20 1/5/21 2/5/21 3/5/21
% Orders Delivered On-Time or Early
1/5/20 2/5/20 3/5/20 4/5/20 5/5/20 6/5/20 7/5/20 8/5/20 9/5/20 10/5/20 11/5/20 12/5/20 1/5/21 2/5/21 3/5/21
Click to Delivery (business days)
Texas storms
25Note: Following the national stay-at-home order (Q2’20), not all customers were able to reach customer service agents due to unexpected volume of sales.
▪ Contact volume as a percentage of
orders decreased 29% vs. Q1’19
▪ Automation and self-service
capabilities improve customer
retention and reduce costs
– Continue to enhance and augment
self-service functionality
easy delivery+ support
Q1'19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
Self Service Cases as % of Total
Q1'19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21
CS Contacts as % of Orders
2021 Strategic Initiatives
26
Improve onsite search and taxonomy1
2
4
3
Expand into Canada
Establish government business
Improve the enterprise platform
Well Positioned for Market Share Growth – in 2021 and Beyond
27
▪ Revenue growth outpacing industry
▪ Gross profit margin in the 22% range
▪ Operating expenses growing slower than revenue,
driving operating leverage
▪ Adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single digits
▪ Free cash flow positive
dreamhomesfor all
Driving sustainable, profitable market share growth
28
Medici VenturesFund
Summary of Medici Ventures Fund Transaction
29
Deal Type Partnership between Overstock and Pelion Venture Partners
General Partner A Pelion Venture Partners entity
Limited Partner Overstock
Partnership Term 8 years
Capital Commitment $45 million (with Overstock option to increase by $30 million)
Fee Structure Annual fees of $2.5 million, combined with success fees paid
according to performance
Timing Announced on January 25; closed on April 23
Deal RationaleMaximize shareholder value through partnering with a highly
experienced venture firm
Medici Ventures Fund Update
30
▪ Bitt launched DCash, the world’s first central bank digital currency, on March 31
▪ tZERO:
– Launched strategic capital raise
– Hosting Q1 update call in May
▪ GrainChain selected by SAP for its global startup accelerator program on April 14
▪ Voatz closed first tranche of $10M capital raise on April 20
▪ PeerNova closed first tranche of $25M capital raise on April 22
31
Summary and Q&A
Q1 Review and Looking Ahead
32
▪ Closed Pelion transaction and deconsolidated Medici Ventures’ businesses
▪ Execute against our 2021 initiatives
▪ Increase Overstock brand association with “Home”
▪ Cement competitive positioning
▪ Improve mobile app adoption
▪ Continue to deliver profitable market share growth
Questions?To ask questions:
▪ Dial-in: (877) 673-5346Conference ID: 5898642
▪ Email: [email protected]
33
34
Appendix
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
35
Note: All figures represent results from continuing operations.
1 Special legal charges include amounts associated with the resolution for and adjustments to various legal contingencies and legal fees associated with pursuing our strategic alternatives.
Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure used in addition to and in conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP and should not be relied upon to the exclusion of
GAAP financial measures. Review our financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and do not rely on any single financial measure.
Mar-2019 Jun-2019 Sep-2019 Dec-2019 Mar-2020 Jun-2020 Sep-2020 Dec-2020 Mar-2021
Income (loss) from continuing operations $ (19,490) $ (13,230) $ (13,448) $ (16,740) $ (13,766) $ 48,174 $ 38,050 $ 23,092 $ 26,018
Depreciation and amortization 5,266 6,127 6,212 6,474 5,569 5,410 5,310 5,487 5,146
Stock-based compensation 3,868 4,560 3,821 3,911 2,681 1,952 1,568 1,640 2,305
Interest (income) expense, net (240) (458) (321) (182) 11 364 264 199 155
Other (income) expense, net 105 419 183 (65) 287 (246) (59) (595) 226
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 864 136 160 (100) 163 505 607 (335) 193
Special items (see table below) 1,757 - (1,221) - (1,486) (7,272) 288 432 (187)
Adjusted EBITDA $ (7,870) $ (2,446) $ (4,614) $ (6,702) $ (6,541) $ 48,887 $ 46,028 $ 29,920 $ 33,856
Special items:
Special legal charges1 $ - $ - $ (1,221) $ - $ (2,501) $ (7,272) $ - $ 432 $ (187)
Severance 1,757 - - - 1,015 - 288 - -
Total Special items $ 1,757 $ - $ (1,221) $ - $ (1,486) $ (7,272) $ 288 $ 432 $ (187)
Three months ended