putting it all together: the intelligence cycle chapter 7 ©2013, taylor & francis
TRANSCRIPT
Putting It All Together: The Intelligence Cycle
Chapter 7
©2013, Taylor & Francis
Introduction
• What decision-makers require is intelligence rather than raw information
• Decision-makers are expected to make the best decisions possible using the best information and processed intelligence available
©2013, Taylor & Francis
Information and the Origin of the Intelligence Cycle
• Provides a visual representation of how the IC answers the questions of a decision-maker
• Many components must work together with great synchronicity for the overall process to be successful
• By 1948, the general steps of the cycle had been identified and the term coined
©2013, Taylor & Francis
The Intelligence Cycle
• The cycle is a model—its purpose is not to perfectly represent reality but to provide a pedagogical tool that students can use to increase understanding
• Things rarely unfold in the nice, neat, manner suggested by the cycle
• Conceptually, the intelligence cycle never ends
©2013, Taylor & Francis
Step One: Planning and Direction• Encompasses the management of the entire
effort• Here the question to be examined is formulated– Swarm ball
• Once a question has been formulated, a plan is devised to collect the appropriate information to properly answer the question
• Once collection techniques have been identified, they are prioritized; anticipated information sources are identified and various agencies are tasked with collection objectives
©2013, Taylor & Francis
Step Two: Collection
• The gathering of raw data and delivery of information for appropriate processing or production
• Without raw information flowing into the cycle, intelligence cannot be developed
• As information begins to flow in, analysts may decide there are certain “gaps” in coverage– Request for information (RFI)
• It is essential that analysts and collectors share a common understanding of each other’s roles
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Step 3: Processing
• Raw information is usually not in a form that allows for immediate analysis; first, it must be organized and, in some cases, translated or decrypted
• The more technology advances, the more processing needs to occur
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Step Four: Analysis
• Analysts collect, evaluate, and produce an assessment within an assigned field or substantive area and then forecast future trends or outcomes from incoming information
• Five categories of finished intelligence– Current intelligence • Addresses current events, and seeks to alert consumers
to new developments
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Step Four: Analysis• Five categories of finished intelligence cont’d– Estimative intelligence
• Looks forward to potential developments that could affect national security
– Warning intelligence • Implies urgency and the potential need for policy action in
response– Research intelligence
• In-depth studies that support both current and estimative intelligence
– Scientific and technical intelligence • Information on technical developments and characteristics,
performance, and capabilities of foreign technologies, including weapons systems or subsystems
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Step Five: Dissemination
• Intelligence is delivered to decision-makers for them to use in whatever way they deem appropriate
• This final step can “make or break” the entire process
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Critical Reactions to the Intelligence Cycle
• It has been said that policy officials often seem to want intelligence to support policy rather than to inform it
• The intelligence cycle is "overly simple”• The cycle is slow and clumsy, due to its
imagined linearity
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Conclusion
• Information may be collected and converted into intelligence, and the intelligence may be disseminated, but unless that intelligence is exploited through decision and action, it has served no purpose.
©2013, Taylor & Francis