pulp and paper markets in europe - unece · china asia pulp & paper (app) hainan 900* brazil...
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UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 1
Pulp and paper markets in Europe
P.A. LacourAFOCELEconomics DepartmentDomaine de l’Etançon77370 NANGISTél.: 01 60 67 00 35Fax.: 01 60 67 00 [email protected]
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 2
Content of the presentation
PaperPulpRecovered paperTrends affecting the P&P Industry
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 3
Statistical sourcesAll data are coming from CEPICEPI countries are:
United KingdomIrelandSwitzerlandHungarySwedenGreeceSpainGermanySlovak RepublicFrancePortugalFinlandPolandDenmarkNorwayCzech RepublicNetherlandsBelgiumItalyAustria
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 4
PAPER
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 5
Paper Production by Region in 2003CEPI Countries29%
Rest of the World2%
Other Europe3%
North America31%
Asia30%
Latin America5%
Total: 328.1 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 6
Turnover and Paper Production in CEPI Countries 1991 - 2004
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Turn
over
(Mill
ion
Euro
s)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Pape
r Pro
duct
ion
(Mill
ion
Tonn
es)
Turnover Paper Production
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 7
Paper Production by Grade in CEPI Countries in 2004
Newsprint11%
Other Graphics40%
Sanitary & Household6%
Total Packaging39%
Other4%
Total: 99.5 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 8
Total Paper Production by CEPI Country in 2004
Spain6%
Rest of CEPI
Countries17%
Austria5%
United Kingdom
6%
Italy10%
France10%
Sweden12%
Finland14%
Germany20%
Total: 99.5 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 9
Paper Consumption by Region in 2003
CEPI Countries26%
Other Europe3%
North America30%
Rest of the World2%
Asia33%
Latin America6%
Total: 327.9 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 10
Trade Flows of Paper to and fromCEPI Countries in 2004
Other Europe: Exports to 2,996 Imports from 1,291
North America: Exports to 3,153 Imports from 1,762
Latin America: Exports to 1,147 Imports from 418
Rest of the World: Exports to 2,162 Imports from 369
Asia: Exports to 5,303 Imports from 375
'000 Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 11
PULP
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 12
Pulp Production by Region in 2003CEPI Countries22%
Other Europe4%
Asia22%
Rest of the World3%
Latin America7%
North America42%
Total: 186.4 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 13
Number of Pulp Mills and Pulp Productionin CEPI Countries 1991-2004
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Num
ber o
f Pul
p M
ills
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
Pul
p Pr
oduc
tion
(Mill
ion
Tonn
es)
Number of Pulp Mills Pulp Production Trend in Pulp Production
+1.9 %
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 14
Pulp Production by CEPI Country in 2004
Finland29%
Rest of CEPI Countries
10%
Sweden28%
Austria5%
Spain5%
Portugal5%
Germany6%
Norway6%
France6%
Total: 42.7 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 15
Pulp Consumption by Region in 2003
CEPI Countries25%
Other Europe3%
North America37%
Asia28%
Rest of the World2%
Latin America5%
Total: 187.2 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 16
Trade Flows of Pulp to and from CEPI Countries in 2004
Other Europe: Exports to 310 Imports from 501
Asia: Exports to 1,007 Imports from 313
Rest of the World: Exports to 122 Imports from 300
Latin America: Exports to 19 Imports from 2,593
North America: Exports to 248 Imports from 4,296
'000 Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 17
Pulpwood Consumption by Origin in CEPI Countries 1991 - 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Domestic Imported
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 18
RECOVERED PAPER
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 19
Raw Materials in Papermaking in CEPI Countries 2004
Non-FibrousMaterials
15.1%
Recovered Paper41.1% Pulp Other
than Wood1.0%
Woodpulp42.8%
Total: 113.2 Million Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 20
Evolution of the Recovered Paper Utilisation and the Recycling Rate in CEPI
Countries 1991 - 2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Rec
over
ed P
aper
Util
isat
ion
(Mill
ion
Tonn
es)
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Rec
yclin
g ra
te (%
)
Recovered Paper Utilisation Recycling rate
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 21
Recovered Paper Collection Rate, Utilisation Rate and Utilisation in CEPI
Countries in 2004
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Utilisation rate %
Col
lect
ion
rate
%
NO
SESK
CZ
PT
BE
AT
DE
FR
IT
UK
CH NL
ESHU
FI
PL GR
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 22
Recovered Paper Trade Balance by Country
-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
AUSTRIA
SPAIN
SWEDEN
NETHERLANDS
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
FINLAND
HUNGARY
GREECE
ITALY
CZECH REPUBLIC
NORWAY
PORTUGAL
POLAND
SWITZERLAND
IRELAND
DENMARK
FRANCE
GERMANY
BELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
2000 2004
Net exporter
Net importer
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 23
Trade Flows of Recovered Paper to and from CEPI Countries in 2004
North America: Exports to 18 Imports from 241
Latin America: Exports to 16 Imports from 1
Asia: Exports to 5,406 Imports from 5
Other Europe: Exports to 359 Imports from 85
Rest of the the World: Exports to 70 Imports from 9
'000 Tonnes
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 24
Recovered Paper Utilisation by Sector in CEPI Countries 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91Share of total paper & board production (%)
Util
isat
ion
rate
(%)
Mixed Grades Corrugated and Kraft Newspapers and Magazines High Grades
Newsprint
Other graphic grades
Case materials
Car
ton
Boa
rds
Wra
ppin
gs,
othe
r pac
k.pa
per
Hou
seho
ld &
sa
nita
ryO
ther
s
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 25
Trends affecting the P&P Industry
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 26
Cyclic businessCyclic business with a downward trend of pricesLow profitability, overcapacities in many pulp and paper gradesStrong impact of exchange rate (ex : USD/Euro)
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 27
Companie's strategies (1/2)
Global business and global strategies (especially for commodity grades)Global companies in a process to refocus on a small number of grades Consolidation will continueInvestments close to the markets and or/in regions where production costs are lower e.g.: in the pulp sector: most of the investments are in South-America and Asia
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 28
Companie's strategies (2/2)Bleached Chemical Market Pulp- Main capacity expansion projects worldwide (with start-up by 2007-2008) (As of september 2005).
500Fray BentosENCEUruguay
1 000Fray BentosBotnia SAUruguay
1 130780Santa FeCMPCChile
1 140200Belo OrienteCENIBRABrazil
900*HainanAsia Pulp & Paper (APP)China
900*EunapolisVeracel (Stora+ Aracruz)Brazil
550*Zellstoff StendalMercerGermany
600Nuevo AldeaAraucoChile
440*ValdiviaArauco Chile
1 100150JacareiVotorantim Cel. e Papel(VCP)Brazil
Total Capacity (in case of new lines in existing mills) (000 t)
New Capacity (000 t)
MillCompanyCountry
* Realized
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 29
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Ave
rage
Siz
e ('0
00 T
onne
s)
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Num
ber o
f Pul
p M
ills
Average Size Number of Pulp Mills
The average mill capacity will continue to growAverage Size by Pulp Mill (Capacity) in CEPI Countries
1991 - 2004
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 30
Forest certification still at a too low level
Forest certification is key for the P&P IndustryCertified areas (especially PEFC) are expandingVolume of certified wood remains too low in many countriesThe number of Chain of Custody also unsufficientDemand of certified pulp and paper products remains low from the consumer side
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 31
Wood for energy generation will increasingly compete with the
procurement of pulp mills
The use of biomass for energy generation (heat, electricity) is fostered by several drivers (subsidies, price of oil,…)Subsidies for biomass based energy might have adverse effects on wood procurement of pulp millsThis would jeopardize the competitiveness of pulp mills But the production of "green energy" on industrial sites also presents opportunities (e.g.: development of bio-refineries)
UNECE/FAO, 26 septembre 2005AFOCEL LECContact : P.A. Lacour ([email protected]) 32
Conclusion
In Europe, production of paper and pulp continues to increaseGlobal competition also increasesProcess of consolidation will continue for commodity productsSome issues connected to fibre supply and marketing are key to the competitiveness: ability to sell certified paper products, no distortion of compettition between the various uses of wood (energy vs pulp and paper)